ie a economia politica do governo lula (1)
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política governo lulaTRANSCRIPT
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A Economia Poltica do Governo Lula
Luiz Filgueiras Reinaldo Gonalves
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Caractersticas
orientao didticaperspectiva histricaavaliao crticaesforo de inovao analticaenfoque abrangenteabordagem da Economia Polticacarter prospectivo
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1. Contexto internacional2. Insero internacional e vulnerabilidade externa3. Poltica e dinmica macroeconmica4. Desempenho em perspectiva histrica5. Pobreza e poltica social6. Classes sociais, Estado e bloco de poder7. Crescimento, acumulao e perspectivas
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Principais concluses: Captulo 1conjuntura internacional extraordinariamente favorvel desde 2003melhora generalizada dos indicadores de vulnerabilidade externa conjuntural dos pases em desenvolvimentoindicadores de vulnerabilidade externa comparada do Brasil no apresentam tendncias firmes de avanos significativos quando se confronta o perodo 2003-06 com o perodo 1995-2002
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a vulnerabilidade externa comparada do Governo Lula maior do que a mdia dos dois mandatos de Cardosoo Governo Lula responsvel pela perda da oportunidade extraordinria criada pelo contexto internacional ps-2002 que permitiria colocar o pas em trajetria de desenvolvimento econmico estvel e dinmico
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Grf2
3.722.1
4.822.5
2.521.4
3.120.8
421.1
5.321.9
4.922.3
5.422.8
PIB, var. %
Investimento (% do PIB)
Grfico 1.1, PIB Wvar %1890-06
Grfico 1.1 PIB mundial, var. %, mdia mvel 4 anos: 1890-2006PIB mundial, var. %, mdia mvel 4 anos
1890
1891
1892
18931.6
18941.5
18952.3
18961.7
18972.9
18983.6
18993.6
19004.0
19014.1
19023.1
19032.7
19042.3
19052.3
19063.9
19073.7
19082.7
19093.2
19101.8
19112.0
19123.9
19133.1
19141.3
19151.1
19162.2
19170.7
19182.7
19191.6
1920-0.5
1921-0.2
19221.0
19232.9
19244.2
19255.4
19264.6
19273.7
19283.3
19293.4
19301.0
1931-1.3
1932-3.7
1933-4.4
1934-1.7
19351.3
19365.2
19376.2
19384.8
19395.2
19403.9
19414.6
19427.0
19437.5
19447.3
19452.9
1946-2.2
1947-4.0
1948-3.3
1949-0.3
19504.6
19516.4
19526.0
19536.3
19544.7
19554.1
19564.0
19573.6
19583.4
19593.3
19603.7
19614.0
19624.9
19634.7
19645.1
19655.5
19665.8
19675.3
19684.9
19695.0
19704.8
19715.1
19725.2
19735.4
19744.8
19754.2
19764.1
19773.5
19784.0
19794.5
19803.7
19813.2
19822.3
19832.1
19842.7
19853.1
19863.8
19874.0
19884.0
19894.0
19903.8
19913.2
19922.7
19932.3
19942.5
19953.1
19963.5
19973.9
19983.7
19993.7
20003.8
20013.4
20023.5
20033.6
20043.7
20054.3
20064.9
Grfico 1.1, PIB Wvar %1890-06
&A
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PIB mundial, var. %, mdia mvel 4 anos
Grfico 1.2, PIB W, FBCF ,93-06
Grfico 1.2: PIB e investimento na economia mundial,
1999-200619992000200120022003200420052006
PIB, var. %3.74.82.53.145.34.95.4
Investimento (% do PIB)22.122.521.420.821.121.922.322.8
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2007
Grfico 1.2, PIB W, FBCF ,93-06
&A
Page &P
PIB, var. %
Investimento (% do PIB)
Grfico 1.3, FBCF e IED
Grfico 1.3: Taxa de investimento e investimento externo direto, 1999-2006
19992000200120022003200420052006
Investimento (% do PIB)22.122.521.420.821.121.922.322.8
Investimento externo direto, entradas US$ bilhes110014108326185587119161230
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2007
UNCTAD
Grfico 1.3, FBCF e IED
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Investimento (% do PIB)
Investimento externo direto, entradas US$ bilhes
Grfico 1.4, Inflao, 93-06
Grfico 1.4: Inflao mdia mundial, IPC (%), 1999-2006
19992000200120022003200420052006
Pases em desenvolvimento, mdia10.37.16.75.85.85.65.45.3
Pases em desenvolvimento, mediana3.94.04.73.34.04.55.75.5
Pases desenvolvidos, mdia (eixo da direita)0.91.51.91.61.71.91.91.9
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2007
Grfico 1.4, Inflao, 93-06
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Pases em desenvolvimento, mdia
Pases em desenvolvimento, mediana
Pases desenvolvidos, mdia (eixo da direita)
Grfico 1.5, Comrcio mundial
Grfico 1.5: Comrcio mundial de bens, var. %, 1999-2006
19992000200120022003200420052006
Volume5.412.8-0.53.76.311.07.49.5
Preos US$-1.10.3-3.70.69.99.96.25.9
PIB, var. %3.74.82.53.14.05.34.95.4
Grfico 1.5, Comrcio mundial
5.4-1.13.7
12.80.34.8
-0.5-3.72.5
3.70.63.1
6.39.94
119.95.3
7.46.24.9
9.55.95.4
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Volume
Preos US$
PIB, var. %
Grfico 1.6, Exp, preo commod
Grfico 1.6: Preos internacionais, var. %, 1999-2006
19992000200120022003200420052006
Manufaturados-2.4-5.9-3.82.314.19.33.44.4
Petrleo37.557.0-13.82.515.830.741.320.5
Commodities, excl. petrleo-7.24.8-4.91.76.918.510.328.4
Grfico 1.6, Exp, preo commod
-2.437.5-7.2
-5.9574.8
-3.8-13.8-4.9
2.32.51.7
14.115.86.9
9.330.718.5
3.441.310.3
4.420.528.4
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Page &P
Manufaturados
Petrleo
Commodities, excl. petrleo
Grfico 1.7, Saldo CC BOP 93-06
Grfico 1.7: Dficit conta corrente do balano de pagamentos, % do PIB, 1997-2006
19992000200120022003200420052006
Mdia mundial3.62.33.43.12.31.82.01.4
Estados Unidos3.24.23.84.54.85.76.46.5
Grfico 1.7, Saldo CC BOP 93-06
3.58757062153.2
2.31061452514.2
3.3564245813.8
3.05055555564.5
2.34.8
1.84111111115.7
1.97611111116.4
1.43333333336.5
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Mdia mundial
Estados Unidos
Grfico 1.8, Liquidez internac
Grfico 1.8: Reservas internacionais, 1999-2006
19992000200120022003200420052006
Reservas internacionais mundiais / PIB mundial (%), excl. EUA8.38.89.610.911.812.712.914.1
Reservas internacionais mundiais, Total, US$ bilhes (excl. EUA)17931941206124283052377041624934
Grfico 1.8, Liquidez internac
8.28654094311792.8114525004
8.84389403481941.0177419889
9.61852844322060.7237846118
10.85896476472428.4463407193
11.77549726723052.2265555997
12.66928833853769.9400816312
12.89579859874161.9938345943
14.11519240574933.573607127
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Reservas internacionais mundiais / PIB mundial (%), excl. EUA
Reservas internacionais mundiais, Total, US$ bilhes (excl. EUA)
Grfico 1.9 PED contas ext US$
Grfico 1.9: Pases em desenvolvimeno, contas externas (US$ bilhes) 1999-2006
19992000200120022003200420052006
Saldo em conta corrente do balano de pagamentos-21863977148213428544
Reservas internacionais71380389810751398184923383019
Grfico 1.9 PED contas ext US$
-21713
86803
39898
771075
1481398
2131849
4282338
5443019
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Page &P
Saldo em conta corrente do balano de pagamentos
Reservas internacionais
Grfico 1.10, indic PED, vuln
Grfico 1.10: Pases em desenvolvimeno, contas externas (%) 1999-2006
19992000200120022003200420052006
Reservas internacionais / Importaes de bens e servios (%)46.344.749.555.360.562.766.471.4
Dvida externa / Exportaes de bens e servios (%)155122125119107917667
Grfico 1.10, indic PED, vuln
46.3155
44.7122
49.5125
55.3119
60.5107
62.791
66.476
71.467
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Reservas internacionais / Importaes de bens e servios (%)
Dvida externa / Exportaes de bens e servios (%)
Grfico 1.11, Spread
Grfico 1.11: Spreads dos ttulos dos mercados emergentes, 1998-2006
01/02/1998507471
01/05/1998527490
01/06/1998555515
01/07/1998549508
01/08/1998568524
01/09/1998587542
01/12/1998604560
01/13/1998583539
01/14/1998576531
01/15/1998600549
01/16/1998574525
01/20/1998571522
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Grfico 1.11, Spread
507471
527490
555515
549508
568524
587542
604560
583539
576531
600549
574525
571522
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11/06/200311/06/2003
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11/26/200411/26/2004
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02/23/200502/23/2005
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