HPEHPE20072007

Aulas 11 e 12Aulas 11 e 12

Keynes e a sínteseKeynes e a síntese

Alfred Marshall e a escola de Alfred Marshall e a escola de CambridgeCambridge

A escola de Cambridge:

Estática comparativa

Diferença entre as dimensões temporais

Contraste com a análise estatística mecânica (debate com Karl Pearson)

Discussões sobre o conceito de equilíbrio

John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946)John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946)

Crise de 1929Crise de 1929

Desemprego após 1929Desemprego após 1929

John Maynard Keynes no youtubeJohn Maynard Keynes no youtube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A12LbuPNqc

Roy Harrod (1900-1978) e J.R. Roy Harrod (1900-1978) e J.R. Hicks (1904-1989)Hicks (1904-1989)

Oxford 1936Oxford 1936 ““I had a few days ago a somewhat similar I had a few days ago a somewhat similar

idea - that it would be a good thing to ask one idea - that it would be a good thing to ask one of Keynes’s adherents to explain to us of Keynes’s adherents to explain to us in a in a clear (clear (i.e.,i.e., mathematical) mathematical) way the substance way the substance of his new book of his new book this sentence was this sentence was underlined by Frisch, who wrote in the underlined by Frisch, who wrote in the margin: ‘excellent!’margin: ‘excellent!’ which now creates a which now creates a sensation among English economists”. sensation among English economists”. (Marschak to Frisch, February 1936) (Marschak to Frisch, February 1936)

““Freightful tendency to compromise”Freightful tendency to compromise”

HarrodHarrod

“ “My main endeavour was to My main endeavour was to mitigate his attack mitigate his attack on the ‘classical school’on the ‘classical school’. (…) It seemed to me . (…) It seemed to me that this was pushing his criticism too far, would that this was pushing his criticism too far, would make too much dust and would give rise to make too much dust and would give rise to irrelevant controversies” (Harrod)irrelevant controversies” (Harrod)

““You don’t mention effective demand (...). To me You don’t mention effective demand (...). To me

the most extraordinary thing, regarded historically, the most extraordinary thing, regarded historically, is the is the complete disappearancecomplete disappearance of the theory of of the theory of demand and supply for output as a whole, i.e. the demand and supply for output as a whole, i.e. the theory of employmenttheory of employment, , afterafter it had been the most it had been the most discussed thing in economics” (Keynes)discussed thing in economics” (Keynes)

Cambridge 1938Cambridge 1938

Debate sobre Tinbergen (1939)Debate sobre Tinbergen (1939)

Tentativa de publicar texto por Lange e Tentativa de publicar texto por Lange e Marschak, no Economic JournalMarschak, no Economic Journal

Memorandum de Frisch: não é possível Memorandum de Frisch: não é possível estimar relações de causalidadeestimar relações de causalidade

Revisão do Modelo ISLMRevisão do Modelo ISLM

,

)1(1

iYLPM

GiIYtsY

MODELO KEYNESIANO

O modelo IS-LMO modelo IS-LM

Milton Friedman: monetarismo Milton Friedman: monetarismo contra Keynesianismocontra Keynesianismo

Uma contestação global:

A politica da procura efectiva e pelo lado da despesa (Keynes) produz inflação

A razão da crise de 1929 foi o comportamento errado das autoridades monetárias

A política monetária é a chave da política económica

Os mercados devem funcionar livremente: laissez faire, laissez passer

Milton Friedman por si próprioMilton Friedman por si próprio

Videos (o “coro” de Friedman e sobre a Videos (o “coro” de Friedman e sobre a ganância)ganância)