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NORONHA ADVOGADOS GLOBAL LAWYERS. São Paulo | Rio de Janeiro | Brasília | Curitiba | Porto Alegre | Recife |. Belo Horizont e | London | Lisbon | Shanghai | Miami | Buenos Aires. An Overview of Brazil Post Crisis. Durval de Noronha Goyos Jr. Senior Partner - Noronha Advogados - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
SÃO PAULO | RIO DE JANEIRO | BRASÍLIA | CURITIBA | PORTO ALEGRE | RECIFE |
BELO HORIZONTE | LONDON | LISBON | SHANGHAI | MIAMI | BUENOS AIRES
AN OVERVIEW OF BRAZIL POST CRISIS
NORONHA ADVOGADOSGLOBAL LAWYERS
DURVAL DE NORONHA GOYOS JR.SENIOR PARTNER - NORONHA ADVOGADOS
PRESENTATION MADE FOR CONNECTICUT TRADE MISSION – AUGUST 10, 2009.
MAP OF BRAZIL
JUNE 30, 2009 - BRAZIL POST CRISIS
BETTER 2008 2009
BALANCE OF TRADE
(6 MONTHS)
US$ 11 billion US$ 14 billion
Domestic Car Sales 270.000 per month 300.000 per month
Indebtness Sâo Paulo 53% 46%
Average interest to consumer/month 7,46% 7,26%
Average interest to companies 4,36% 4,12%
Index Volume of Sales 142 points 154 points
IBOVESPA 53.392 points 54.775 points
Minimum Wage R$ 415,00 R$ 465,00
Source: O Estado de S. Paulo – 2 August 2009
JUNE 30, 2009 - BRAZIL POST CRISIS - II
WORSE 2008 2009
Index Industrial Stokes 98,5 points 94,5 points
Use of Industrial Capacity 85,4 % 79,8%
Monthly Production of Cars 300,00 284,000
Consumer Confidence 111.7 points 111,4 points
Index Industrial Production 136.1 points 114
Unemployment Rate 7,7% 8,1%
Source: O Estado de S. Paulo – 2 August 2009
5,4
7,87,5
3,5
-0,1
3,2
1,0
-0,5
4,75,3
4,4
3,4
0,0 0,3
4,3
1,3
2,7
1,1
5,7 5,75,1
4,5*
2,1
3,2
4,0
-4,3-5,0
-3,0
-1,0
1,0
3,0
5,0
7,0
9,0
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
*
20
10
*
1,0
BRAZIL’S GPD 1884 - 2010
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE *Projection
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
GDP(Billion)
552 663.4 882 1,006 1,300 1,378
Population(Million)
178.9 181.5 185.5 186.7 188.9 196.0
GDP per capita (Thousand)
3,10 3,66 4,77 5,41 6,91 7,030
BRAZIL’S GDP IN US$
7,0
6,0
3,5
0,5 0,4
-0,3 -0,5 -0,5-0,9 -1,0
-1,9 -2,0 -2,0 -2,0-2,6 -2,8 -3,0 -3,0
-3,3 -3,4 -3,5 -3,5 -3,6 -3,6 -3,6-4,0 -4,0
-5,0 -5,0
-6,0-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
Ch
ina
Índ
ia
Ind
on
ésia
Áfr
ica
do
Su
l
Co
lôm
bia
Ch
ile
Bra
sil
Po
lôn
ia
Ará
bia
Sau
dit
a
Au
strá
lia
Arg
enti
na
Tail
ând
ia
Turq
uia
Can
adá
EU
A
Fra
nça
Po
rtu
gal
Ho
lan
da
Hu
ng
ria
Co
réia
do
Su
l
Méx
ico
Rep
. Tc
hec
a
Esp
anh
a
Itál
ia
Rei
no
Un
ido
Cin
gap
ura
Taiw
an
Rú
ssia
Ale
man
ha
Jap
ão
Source: IMF
GPD: IMF’S PROJECTIONS FOR 2009
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: OUTBOUND
Source: Central Bank
0
40
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
4,7
0,5
14,3
10,1
34,9
12,1
20,5
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: INBOUND
Source: Central Bank * JAN - MAY/2009
US$ Billion
SOURCES OF ENERGY
Source: Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy
86%
14%
55%
45%
0
20
40
60
80
World Brazil
Renewable Non-Renewable
1 Saudi Arabia 266
2 Iran 138
3 Iraq 115
4 Kuwait 104
5 UAE 97
6 Brazil 94
7 Venezuela 87
8 Russia 79
9 Libya 41
10 Kazakhstan 39
11 Nigeria 36
12 USA 29
Source: Oil & Gas Journal – January, 2008
In Billion of Barrels
WORLD'S OIL RESERVES
POVERTY IN % OF THE BRAZILIAN POPULATION – 1992/2009
Source: CPS/FGV
MIDDLE CLASS IN % OF THE BRAZILIAN POPULATION – 1992/2009
63,0
97,4
76,079,0
84,3
108,9
103,8
123,3
136,4
158,8
50,0
70,0
90,0
110,0
130,0
150,0
170,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Fonte: MTE e IBGE
NUMBER OF MINIMUM WAGES REQUIRED TO ACQUIRE A BASIC CAR
Source: MTE and DIEESE/PROCON
-4,2%
-0,3%
4,5%
1,5%
4,7%
12,4%
3,6% 4,0%3,3%
7,6%
12,1%
5,6%
4,3%
6,7%
5,1%
-6,00%
-4,00%
-2,00%
0,00%
2,00%
4,00%
6,00%
8,00%
10,00%
12,00%
14,00%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*
REAL GROWTH OF THE MINIMUM WAGE – 1996/2010
Minimum Wage today in SP: R$ 465,00 *Considering the IPCA accumulated from June to May Source: MTE - CAGED
BRAZIL – INFLATION RATES
12,53%
9,30%
7,60%
5,69%
3,14%
4,46%
5,90%
4,30% 4,50%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
12,0%
14,0%
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Fonte: IBGEElaboração: BRADESCO
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE
EXCHANGE RATES OF THE REAL AGAINST THE US DOLLAR
Source: Central Bank * JUN/2009
DEVELOPMENT OF EXTERNAL DEBT
Year Gross Amount (US$ Billion) Net Amount (US$ Billion)
1998 235,1
1999 223,9
2000 216,9
2001 209,9
2002 210,7
2003 214,9 165,6
2004 201,4 148,4
2005 169,4 115,6
2006 172,6 86,76
2007 193,2 12,86
2008 200,2 (-6,6)
2009* 201,4 (-7,8)
1,54
4,52
5,57
4,91
7,48
3,38
6,41
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Fonte: IBGEElaboração: Bradesco
(*) Seis principais regiões metropolitanas do País: São SALARIES’ GROWTH
Main Metropolitan Areas: São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, Recife e Porto Alegre. Source: IBGE
BNDS AND MULTILATERAL AGENCIES
BNDS IDB World Bank
US$ Billion 31/12/2008 31/12/2008 30/06/2008
Total Assets 118,6 72,5 233,6
Net Assets 10,8 19,4 41,5
Net Profit 2,3 (22,0) 1,5
Disbursement 49,8 7,1 10,5
Return 2,20% -0,03% 0,70%
Source: BNDS
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN BRAZIL
567891011121314
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
10.579
15.59413.336
10.501
-3.353-5.538
-8.375-6.590
-1.237 -751
2.651
13.199
24.912
33.842
44.92446.456
40.028
24.759
29.382
22.164
-12.000
-2.000
8.000
18.000
28.000
38.000
48.000
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
*
2010
*
SALDO COMERCIAL - US$ BILHÕES
Fonte: Secex/MDICElaboração e *
(projeção): BRADESCO
BRAZIL’S TRADE BALANCE – 1991/2010
Source: Central Bank *Estimate
BRAZIL’S IMPORTS FROM ASIA – 1989/2009
10,52%10,18%10,77%10,58%
14,57%15,03%
16,51%
14,32%15,13%
13,64%13,13%
15,40%16,05%
16,93%
18,46%19,54%
22,92%
25,06%25,47%
27,22%28,04%
0,00%
5,00%
10,00%
15,00%
20,00%
25,00%
30,00%
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
*
Source: Central Bank * Estimate
BRAZIL’S EXPORTS TO ASIA – 1989/2009
16,42%16,77%17,99%
15,43%15,84%16,17%
17,61%16,37%
14,59%
10,98%11,94%11,49%11,94%
14,56%
15,96%15,08%
15,66%15,11%15,62%
18,92%
25,67%
0,00%
5,00%
10,00%
15,00%
20,00%
25,00%
30,00%
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009*
Source: Central Bank * Data accumulated until May
BRAZIL’S EXPORTS TO THE USA – 1995/2009
13.2%
24.3%
22.4%
15.9%
18.6%
24.7%
18.5%
21.4%
19.7%
17.3%
26.3%
12.0%
15.0%
18.0%
21.0%
24.0%
27.0%
Ap
r-95
Au
g-9
5D
ec-9
5A
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ug
-96
Dec
-96
Ap
r-97
Au
g-9
7D
ec-9
7
Ap
r-98
Au
g-9
8D
ec-9
8A
pr-
99A
ug
-99
Dec
-99
Ap
r-00
Au
g-0
0
Dec
-00
Ap
r-01
Au
g-0
1D
ec-0
1A
pr-
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ug
-02
Dec
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Ap
r-03
Au
g-0
3
Dec
-03
Ap
r-04
Au
g-0
4D
ec-0
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pr-
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-05
Dec
-05
Ap
r-06
Au
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6A
pr-
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ug
-07
Dec
-07
Ap
r-08
Au
g-0
8D
ec-0
8A
pr-
09
Fonte: BCB, Secex
Marketshare dos EUA nas exportações do Brasilem%
Source: Central Bank and SECEX
BRAZIL’S EXPORTS TO CHINA – 1995/2009
9,86%
8,40%
6,61%6,40%
4,90%
6,12%
3,14%
1,36%
2,07%2,59%
0,6%
2,6%
4,6%
6,6%
8,6%
10,6%
Au
g-9
5D
ec-9
5
Ap
r-96
Au
g-9
6D
ec-9
6
Ap
r-97
Au
g-9
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ec-9
7
Ap
r-98
Au
g-9
8D
ec-9
8
Ap
r-99
Au
g-9
9D
ec-9
9
Ap
r-00
Au
g-0
0D
ec-0
0
Ap
r-01
Au
g-0
1D
ec-0
1
Ap
r-02
Au
g-0
2
Dec
-02
Ap
r-03
Au
g-0
3
Dec
-03
Ap
r-04
Au
g-0
4
Dec
-04
Ap
r-05
Au
g-0
5
Dec
-05
Ap
r-06
Au
g-0
6
Dec
-06
Ap
r-07
Au
g-0
7
Dec
-07
Ap
r-08
Au
g-0
8
Dec
-08
Ap
r-09
Marketshare da China nas exportações do Brasilem%
Source: Central Bank and SECEX
PARTICIPATION OF COMMODITIES IN BRAZIL’S EXPORTS
65.7%
64.5%
57.0%
61.2%
55.7%
54.1%
55.2%
54.6%
57.8%
60.8%
59.1%
59.7%
58.1%
59.8%
59.5%
61.1%
62.7%
53.0%
55.0%
57.0%
59.0%
61.0%
63.0%
65.0%
67.0%
abr/
00
jul/0
0
ou
t/00
jan
/01
abr/
01
jul/0
1
ou
t/01
jan
/02
abr/
02
jul/0
2
ou
t/02
jan
/03
abr/
03
jul/0
3
ou
t/03
jan
/04
abr/
04
jul/0
4
ou
t/04
jan
/05
abr/
05
jul/0
5
ou
t/05
jan
/06
abr/
06
jul/0
6
ou
t/06
jan
/07
abr/
07
jul/0
7
ou
t/07
jan
/08
abr/
08
jul/0
8
ou
t/08
jan
/09
abr/
09
Source: MDIC
ProductsPosition between main
exporters% of Total Global
Exports
Orange juice 1º 81%
Poultry 1º 35%
Sugar 1º 33%
Coffee 1º 30%
Tobacco 1º 27%
Bovine Meat 1º 24%
Ethanol 1º 13%
Soy 2º 32%
Soy Oil 2º 28%
Pork 3º 11%
Cotton 3º 5%
Source: International Relations and Trade Institute - Icone Brasil
BRAZILIAN TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Exports Imports Balance
Source: Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock – CAN
US$ Billion
BRAZILIAN TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
Destinations Agribusiness Exports
(US$ million)
Var. % 07/06 (b/a)
TotalExp. (c)
Increased Value%
2006 (a) 2007 (b) Basic Semi Manufactured
1.EU 16.153 21.232 31,44 40.357 57,43 14,53 28,04
2. USA 7.370 6.840 -7,19 25.065 19,55 19,70 60,75
3. China 3.802 4.691 23,38 10.749 67,69 29,23 3,09
4. Russia 3.156 3.402 7,80 3.741 64,37 30,72 4,92
5. Argentina 1.571 1.917 21,97 14.417 11,19 6,31 82,50
6. Japan 1.491 1.768 18,57 4.321 58,42 14,65 26,93
Source: Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock – CAN
BRAZILIAN TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS - II
BRAZIL’S EXPORTS – PARTICIPATION OF EMERGING COUNTRIES
59.7%
54.9%
32.5%
34.4%
38.9%
44.9%
43.1%
45.2%
48.1%
44.9%
41.7%
44.8%
43.5%
49.9%
54.9%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
fev-9
0
jan
-91
dez-9
1
no
v-9
2
ou
t-93
set-
94
ag
o-9
5
jul-
96
jun
-97
mai-
98
ab
r-99
mar-
00
fev-0
1
jan
-02
dez-0
2
no
v-0
3
ou
t-04
set-
05
ag
o-0
6
jul-
07
jun
-08
mai-
09
Brazil’s prevailing foreign policy doctrine recognizesthe vulnerability of the country in a number of areas:
Economic;
Technological;
Political;
Commercial and
Military.
Source: Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
GENERAL ASPECTS OF BRAZIL FOREIGN POLICY
FOREIGN POLICY – GENERAL ASPECTS
Brazil’s present foreign policy doctrine recommends alliances with other major developing countries such as:
China, India, Russia andSouth Africa
In order to minimize such vulnerabilities.
Source: Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
GENERAL ASPECTS OF BRAZIL FOREIGN POLICY - II
FOREIGN POLICY – GENERAL ASPECTS
MAP OF SOUTH AMERICA
. São José do Rio Preto
Argentina
Cristina Kirchner
Uruguay
Tabaré Vázquez
Paraguay
Fernando Lugo
Chile
Michelle Bachelet
Bolivia
Evo Morales
Ecuador
Rafael Correa
Peru
Alan Garcia
Colombia
Álvaro Uribe
Venezuela
Hugo Chávez
Brazil
Lula
SOUTH AMERICAN PRESIDENTS
SOUTH AMERICAN ECONOMIES IN 2009/2010
FORECASTS FOR GDPCountry 2009 2010
Argentina -3.5% 0.5%
Brazil 1.0% 4.5%
Chile -1.2% 2.7%
Colombia -1.2% 2.5%
Venezuela -4.1% -2.7%
Peru 3.5% 4.5%
Ecuador -2.0% 1.0%
Uruguay 1.3% 2.0%
Bolivia 2.2% 2.9%
Paraguay 0.5% 1.5%
Main Regional Initiatives
MERCOSUL TRADE BLOCK
UNASUL POLITICAL BLOCK
ALBA VENEZUELAN INICIATIVE
FOREIGN POLICY – BRAZIL
CONFLICTS AND DISPUTES BETWEEN BRAZIL AND USA
Ethanol
Sugar
Orange Juice
TRADE BILATERAL Steel
Shoes
Agricultural Subsidies
Cotton
MULTILATERAL Agricultural Subsidies
(WTO) Gasoline
Dumping and offset act of 2000
Steel
Brazil as plaintiff US Patents Code
(10 cases) Silicon Metal
Orange Juice
Steel Products (2)
Orange Juice (2)
CONFLICTS AND DISPUTES BETWEEN BRAZIL AND USA - II
Car industry incentives
USA as plaintiff Patent protection
(3 cases) Minimum import prices
REGIONAL FTAA
POLITICAL DIFFERENCES
MULTILATERAL
REGIONAL
CO-OPERATION BETWEEN BRAZIL AND USA
JUDICIAL ASSISTANCE Mutual legal assistance in minimal months 2001
NARCOTIC DRUGS Control of illicit drugs 1983
REGIONAL HAITI
Address:Alexandre Dumas, 1630CEP: 04717-004 São Paulo SP Brazil
Phone: (55-11) 5188-8090Fax: (55-11) 5184-0097(55 11) 5184-2471
NORONHA ADVOGADOS
Located in one of the main financial centers of the city, the São Paulo
office is the head office of Noronha Advogados and the oldest, having
been opened in June 1978. It concentrates the highest number of
professionals and is the centre for the firm’s administrative and financial
departments.
Contact: Durval de Noronha Goyos JúniorLilian Thomé
NORONHA ADVOGADOS
