D-Despesa_Total_SS1Euros - milhares (10^3)AnosDespesa da Segurana SocialAnosndice em Cadeia - Despesa da Segurana SocialAnosTaxas de Crescimento- Despesa da Segurana SocialTotalPrestaes SociaisSubsdios formao profissionalOutras despesasIndice base 1995 Despesa Totalpeso das penses e desemprego no total da despesaTotalPrestaes SociaisSubsdios formao profissionalOutras despesasTotalPrestaes SociaisTotalFamiliaresDoena e MaternidadeDesemprego e Apoio ao EmpregoPenses, Suplementos e ComplementosRendimento Social de Insero (ex-Rendimento Mnimo GarantidoOutrasTotalFamiliaresDoena e MaternidadeDesemprego e Apoio ao EmpregoPenses, Suplementos e ComplementosRendimento Social de Insero (ex-Rendimento Mnimo GarantidoOutrasDesemprego e Apoio ao Emprego1990 4,239,938.03,566,422.80 242,778.10 312,617.20 140,436.80 2,631,008.90 0.0239,581.70 189,082.60 484,432.70 0.52 0.65 1990200230%25%1991 5,170,587.94,361,934.00 304,531.80 386,752.30 212,871.90 3,145,239.90 0.0312,538.20 302,113.50 506,540.50 0.63 0.65 199122%22%25%24%52%20%30%60%5%200410%12%1992 6,156,400.05,127,390.10 339,911.80 445,472.40 342,774.80 3,626,296.30 0.0372,934.90 529,496.20 499,513.60 0.76 0.64 199219%18%12%15%61%15%19%75%-1%20056%9%1993 7,241,581.65,829,314.40 365,028.50 425,196.40 562,555.50 4,061,755.40 0.0414,778.50 955,097.60 457,169.70 0.89 0.64 199318%14%7%-5%64%12%11%80%-8%20064%1%1994 7,481,015.86,373,196.70 370,735.80 462,400.60 680,468.60 4,413,430.90 0.0446,160.80 507,833.20 599,985.80 0.92 0.68 19943%9%2%9%21%9%8%-47%31%20074%-8%1995 8,145,539.86,935,268.20 388,207.40 545,202.80 699,080.90 4,777,710.70 0.0525,066.40 460,219.90 750,051.60 1.00 0.67 19959%9%5%18%3%8%18%-9%25%200824%-7%1996 8,774,826.07,385,981.80 403,683.70 553,185.70 692,510.00 5,156,141.90 1,759.80 578,700.70 606,582.70 782,261.40 1.08 0.67 19968%6%4%1%-1%8%10%32%4%200910%31%1997 9,580,875.57,831,890.10 436,588.20 548,176.80 671,569.80 5,473,557.70 48,656.80 653,340.80 553,941.30 1,195,044.10 1.18 0.64 19979%6%8%-1%-3%6%13%-9%53%20105%9%1998 10,599,487.68,537,981.40 477,265.10 552,246.10 663,816.90 5,873,400.30 197,194.70 774,058.40 738,362.00 1,323,144.20 1.30 0.62 199811%9%9%1%-1%7%305%18%33%11%2011-6%-5%1999 11,582,140.29,319,273.50 491,171.10 550,387.90 731,642.40 6,387,858.20 277,398.60 880,815.30 859,864.00 1,403,002.80 1.42 0.61 19999%9%3%-0%10%9%41%14%16%6%201224%23%2000 12,348,030.410,195,215.50 528,974.80 607,390.70 803,282.40 7,008,795.70 266,797.40 979,974.50 514,509.40 1,638,305.50 1.52 0.63 20007%9%8%10%10%10%-4%11%-40%17%2001 13,786,494.311,202,418.60 567,416.30 640,059.90 870,011.40 7,728,131.00 244,282.00 1,152,517.90 591,828.00 1,992,247.70 1.69 0.62 200112%10%7%5%8%10%-8%18%15%22%2002 17,901,112.712,320,574.10 618,240.20 654,542.30 1,090,312.20 8,433,962.60 231,795.40 1,291,721.40 989,855.80 4,590,682.90 2.20 0.53 200230%10%9%2%25%9%-5%12%67%130%2003 17,125,908.513,481,792.80 654,569.50 715,344.80 1,488,538.50 9,042,849.60 243,419.10 1,337,071.30 808,007.00 2,836,108.80 2.10 0.61 2003-4%9%6%9%37%7%5%4%-18%-38%2004 18,790,992.314,642,069.20 692,957.80 735,295.40 1,662,370.90 9,864,942.90 241,639.50 1,444,862.70 963,885.70 3,185,037.40 2.31 0.61 200410%9%6%3%12%9%-1%8%19%12%2005 19,855,662.715,734,747.80 691,008.00 730,853.60 1,805,552.80 10,688,271.30 285,298.30 1,533,763.70 972,280.20 3,148,634.70 2.44 0.63 20056%7%-0%-1%9%8%18%6%1%-1%2006 20,688,813.016,702,955.30 727,059.20 738,211.40 1,827,943.50 11,423,371.70 334,764.60 1,651,604.90 948,078.90 3,037,778.80 2.54 0.64 20064%6%5%1%1%7%17%8%-2%-4%2007 21,532,866.817,387,389.20 772,021.50 762,950.50 1,684,814.00 12,113,096.80 372,596.40 1,681,910.00 698,447.50 3,447,030.10 2.64 0.64 20074%4%6%3%-8%6%11%2%-26%13%2008 26,801,178.718,324,103.50 942,763.20 742,577.30 1,566,573.60 12,818,152.00 425,721.00 1,828,316.40 584,049.20 7,893,025.90 3.29 0.54 200824%5%22%-3%-7%6%14%9%-16%129%2009 29,577,376.820,110,363.50 1,136,984.50 850,875.80 2,045,184.90 13,464,650.40 507,708.90 2,104,959.00 1,009,667.60 8,457,345.70 3.63 0.52 200910%10%21%15%31%5%19%15%73%7%2010 31,093,897.620,907,615.00 1,108,523.60 892,518.40 2,221,136.00 14,011,912.60 519,908.70 2,153,615.70 1,205,632.90 8,980,649.60 3.82 0.52 20105%4%-3%5%9%4%2%2%19%6%2011 29,356,867.520,788,868.50 812,022.10 923,268.10 2,103,793.50 14,448,733.80 414,383.50 2,086,667.50 1,385,791.00 7,182,207.90 3.60 0.56 2011-6%-1%-27%3%-5%3%-20%-3%15%-20%2012 36,341,054.621,670,488.60 807,039.60 863,817.30 2,592,952.70 14,943,607.90 387,904.30 2,075,166.80 1,239,592.80 13,430,973.20 4.46 0.48 201224%4%-1%-6%23%3%-6%-1%-11%87%

Despesa da Segurana SocialtAnosTotalTt = TendenciaEt (ver nota)Et/Total

119958145539.85773162.167836262372377.6321637429%2199687748267341568.742862061433257.2571379416%Nota: Sazonalidade no existe. o ciclo econmico est englobado na tendncia319979580875.58909975.31788786670900.1821121427%4199810599487.610478381.8929137121105.7070863411%5199911582140.212046788.4679395-464648.26793946-4%6200012348030.413615195.0429653-1267164.64296526-10%Yt=Tt+St+EtSt=07200113786494.315183601.6179911-1397107.31799106-10%8200217901112.716752008.19301691149104.506983146%a=1568406.57502589200317125908.518320414.7680427-1194506.26804266-7%b=4204755.5928104610200418790992.319888821.3430685-1097829.04306846-6% 11200519855662.721457227.9180943-1601565.21809426-8%1220062068881323025634.4931201-2336821.49312006-11%13200721532866.824594041.0681459-3061174.26814586-14%14200826801178.726162447.6431717638731.0568283392%15200929577376.827730854.21819751846522.581802546%16201031093897.629299260.79322331794636.806776746%17201129356867.530867667.3682491-1510799.86824906-5%18201236341054.632436073.94327493904980.6567251411%192013Previso34004480.518300720201435572887.093326521201537141293.668352322201638709700.243378123201740278106.818403924201841846513.393429725201943414919.968455526202044983326.543481327202146551733.118507128202248120139.693532929202349688546.268558730202451256952.843584531202552825359.418610332202654393765.993636133202755962172.568661934202857530579.143687735202959098985.718713536203060667392.2937393

RC-Receitas_SS_total_por_tipoEscala10^3AnosReceitaTotalReceitas correntesTransferncias correntesReceitas de capitalTransferncias de capitalIndice Base 95 Receitas correntestTotalContribuiesRendimentosConsignao adicional IVAOutras receitas correntes11995 8,391,985.37024530.9 6,120,604.3629478 224,459.149989.5 916,202.0 28,750.7 422,501.8 1.021996 9,748,994.97249249.3 6,112,444.096287.9 387,566.0652951.4 1,783,392.0 51,785.2 664,568.4 1.031997 9,805,304.27453137.9 6,846,899.099540.1 361,129.7145569.2 1,931,440.2 24,161.8 396,564.3 1.141998 10,775,905.17925684.1 7,405,208.486855.7 389,062.444557.6 2,081,448.7 13,447.6 755,324.7 1.151999 11,585,005.18541200.7 8,030,686.069248.1 399,038.342228.2 2,331,989.9 60,444.3 651,370.2 1.262000 12,569,106.79360693 8,769,254.392284.6 433,954.265199.9 2,635,860.6 61,680.4 510,872.8 1.372001 13,686,773.210214770.7 9,570,279.0105001.9 483,834.055655.9 2,633,972.1 141,254.6 696,775.8 1.582002 19,329,318.111006918.7 10,168,269.9191457.8 502,812.0144379 4,114,388.9 2,834,288.2 21,844.1 1.692003 18,585,649.211510206.4 10,468,758.8238713.8 676,000.0126733.8 4,400,252.5 1,219,183.7 26,755.4 1.6 2.1quadriplicou desde 1995102004 20,211,658.411632281.3 10,438,569.8237561.9 550,900.0405249.6 5,203,153.8 1,894,239.8 22,290.5 1.7112005 21,550,706.012099036.8 11,037,320.8239122.2 592,032.9230560.9 5,873,536.0 2,134,991.3 22,475.7 1.7122006 22,749,676.712754030.1 11,608,054.4264245.7 633,000.0248730 6,694,182.8 1,674,598.8 23,355.6 1.8132007 23,994,259.613653679.8 12,369,715.4331548.9 658,300.0294115.6 6,606,401.4 1,654,780.3 19,681.7 1.9142008 29,282,871.814493642.1 13,082,140.8410728.9 691,900.0308872.4 7,125,336.2 5,185,478.5 17,022.3 2.1152009 32,145,215.614472085.3 13,131,727.7361507.4 689,100.0289750.2 8,359,967.2 6,818,244.5 13,225.4 2.1162010 33,626,862.714872340.1 13,483,331.4374475.4 697,750.0316783.2 8,957,040.1 7,225,790.5 4,256.6 2.1172011 31,523,225.415247798 13,746,317.0451211.1 715,190.0335079.9 8,288,080.6 5,451,592.0 2,789.6 2.2182012 37,321,397.514726075 13,082,142.3411698.6 891,895.0340339.1 9,460,199.0 10,963,628.7 5,137.0 2.1

tAnosReceitas correntes da Seguranca SocialTotalTt = TendenciaEt (ver nota)Et/TotalNota: Sazonalidade no existe e que o ciclo econmico est englobado na tendncia119957,024,530.967931682313633.3%219967,249,249.37328856-79607-1.1%Yt Previsto = Tt+St+EtSt=0319977,453,137.97864545-411407-5.5%419987,925,684.18400233-474549-6.0%a=535688.471001032519998,541,200.78935922-394721-4.6%b=6257479.53660131620009,360,693.09471610-110917-1.2%7200110,214,770.7100072992074722.0%8200211,006,918.7105429874639314.2%9200311,510,206.4110786764315313.7%10200411,632,281.311614364179170.2%11200512,099,036.812150053-51016-0.4%12200612,754,030.112685741682890.5%13200713,653,679.8132214304322503.2%14200814,493,642.1137571187365245.1%15200914,472,085.3142928071792791.2%16201014,872,340.114828495438450.3%17201115,247,798.015364184-116386-0.8%18201214,726,075.015899872-1173797-8.0%192013Previso16435560.485620920201416971248.956621921201517506937.42762322201618042625.89862423201718578314.36962524201819114002.840626125201919649691.311627126202020185379.782628127202120721068.253629228202221256756.724630229202321792445.195631230202422328133.666632331202522863822.137633332202623399510.608634333202723935199.079635434202824470887.550636435202925006576.021637436203025542264.4926385

ConclusoEuros10^3Despesa da Segurana SocialEuros10^3tAnosTotalTt = TendenciaEt Et/TotaltAnosReceitas correntes da Segurana SocialAnosR/D (ver nota)R/D previsto (ver nota)NotaTotalTt = TendenciaEtEt/TotalR/D = Receita corrente + capital da Segurana Social/Despesa Total da Segurana Social119958,145,539.8 5,773,162.2 2372377.6321637429%119957,024,530.967931682313633.3%199586%Real219968,774,826.0 7,341,568.7 1433257.2571379416%219967,249,249.37328856-79607-1.1%199683%319979,580,875.5 8,909,975.3 670900.1821121427%319977,453,137.97864545-411407-5.5%199778%4199810,599,487.6 10,478,381.9 121105.7070863411%419987,925,684.18400233-474549-6.0%199875%5199911,582,140.2 12,046,788.5 -464648.26793946-4%519998,541,200.78935922-394721-4.6%199974%6200012,348,030.4 13,615,195.0 -1267164.64296526-10%620009,360,693.09471610-110917-1.2%200076%7200113,786,494.3 15,183,601.6 -1397107.31799106-10%7200110,214,770.7100072992074722.0%200174%8200217,901,112.7 16,752,008.2 1149104.506983146%8200211,006,918.7105429874639314.2%200261%9200317,125,908.5 18,320,414.8 -1194506.26804266-7%9200311,510,206.4110786764315313.7%200367%10200418,790,992.3 19,888,821.3 -1097829.04306846-6%10200411,632,281.311614364179170.2%200462%11200519,855,662.7 21,457,227.9 -1601565.21809426-8%11200512,099,036.812150053-51016-0.4%200561%12200620,688,813.0 23,025,634.5 -2336821.49312006-11%12200612,754,030.112685741682890.5%200662%13200721,532,866.8 24,594,041.1 -3061174.26814586-14%13200713,653,679.8132214304322503.2%200763%14200826,801,178.7 26,162,447.6 638731.0568283392%14200814,493,642.1137571187365245.1%200854%15200929,577,376.8 27,730,854.2 1846522.581802546%15200914,472,085.3142928071792791.2%200949%16201031,093,897.6 29,299,260.8 1794636.806776746%16201014,872,340.114828495438450.3%201048%17201129,356,867.5 30,867,667.4 -1510799.86824906-5%17201115,247,798.015364184-116386-0.8%201152%18201236,341,054.6 32,436,073.9 3904980.6567251411%18201214,726,075.015899872-1173797-8.0%201241%192013Previso34004480.5183007192013Previso16435560.48562092013Previso48%20201435572887.093326520201416971248.9566219201448%21201537141293.668352321201517506937.427623201547%22201638709700.243378122201618042625.898624201647%23201740278106.818403923201718578314.369625201746%24201841846513.393429724201819114002.8406261201846%25201943414919.968455525201919649691.3116271201945%26202044983326.543481326202020185379.7826281202045%27202146551733.118507127202120721068.2536292202145%28202248120139.693532928202221256756.7246302202244%29202349688546.268558729202321792445.1956312202344%30202451256952.843584530202422328133.6666323202444%31202552825359.418610331202522863822.1376333202543%32202654393765.993636132202623399510.6086343202643%33202755962172.568661933202723935199.0796354202743%34202857530579.143687734202824470887.5506364202843%35202959098985.718713535202925006576.0216374202942%36203060667392.293739336203025542264.4926385203042%

Tendo em conta que o nosso objectivo analisar a sustentabilidade do sistema da segurana social retiramos o efeito das transferncias correntes e de capital tal como da receita de capital, pois caso no o fizessemos a anlise seria enganadora dado que o estado recorre a transferncias extraordinrias do seu oramento por forma a cobrir o dfice da segurana social. . As receitas representavam 86% das despesas em 95, e houve mesmo anos em que chegaram a ultrapassa-las. As previsesno so melhores. Segundo a anlise da tendncia as receitas vo representando cada vez menos do bolo da despesa, cerca de 42% de acordo com osnossos calculos, pelo que podemos concluir que, sem interveno do estdo no sentdio de fazer uma reforma estrtural, este sistema tornar se , muito provavelmente, insustentavel. A segurana social portanto um sistema no auto-suficiente.Delay de 5 anos

B-Beneficiarios_Sub_desempregoBeneficirios do subsdio de desemprego da Segurana Social: total e por grupo etrio

IndivduoAnosGrupos etriosTotal18-2020-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6918-2020-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-70199886,297 527 5,509 8,198 8,894 8,984 9,368 9,785 10,025 14,037 10,627 343 19980.6%6.4%9.5%10.3%10.4%10.9%11.3%11.6%16.3%12.3%0.4%199995,760 454 5,534 8,017 9,621 9,149 9,685 10,592 12,107 16,985 13,126 490 19990.5%5.8%8.4%10.0%9.6%10.1%11.1%12.6%17.7%13.7%0.5%200098,660 279 4,681 7,707 9,067 8,202 8,896 11,107 14,342 19,579 14,316 484 20000.3%4.7%7.8%9.2%8.3%9.0%11.3%14.5%19.8%14.5%0.5%2001110,108 366 5,700 9,912 10,678 9,584 9,749 11,893 15,304 22,023 14,489 410 20010.3%5.2%9.0%9.7%8.7%8.9%10.8%13.9%20.0%13.2%0.4%2002127,269 422 6,122 11,982 13,240 11,978 12,088 14,057 17,776 24,216 14,913 475 20020.3%4.8%9.4%10.4%9.4%9.5%11.0%14.0%19.0%11.7%0.4%2003190,127 1,282 13,102 21,422 21,946 18,954 18,130 20,289 23,855 32,130 18,320 697 20030.7%6.9%11.3%11.5%10.0%9.5%10.7%12.5%16.9%9.6%0.4%2004221,123 1,398 14,734 22,686 25,493 21,820 21,859 24,245 28,241 38,823 20,896 928 20040.6%6.7%10.3%11.5%9.9%9.9%11.0%12.8%17.6%9.4%0.4%2005231,035 1,186 14,290 22,947 26,836 22,382 22,538 25,631 30,431 41,736 22,160 898 20050.5%6.2%9.9%11.6%9.7%9.8%11.1%13.2%18.1%9.6%0.4%2006219,366 844 11,314 21,164 25,628 21,542 21,740 25,134 30,103 39,635 21,412 850 20060.4%5.2%9.6%11.7%9.8%9.9%11.5%13.7%18.1%9.8%0.4%2007174,767 278 6,896 13,841 19,890 16,895 17,548 21,278 25,729 33,106 18,530 776 20070.2%3.9%7.9%11.4%9.7%10.0%12.2%14.7%18.9%10.6%0.4%2008181,261 395 8,685 16,299 20,906 19,310 18,826 21,375 25,600 30,283 18,859 723 20080.2%4.8%9.0%11.5%10.7%10.4%11.8%14.1%16.7%10.4%0.4%2009244,134 481 12,536 24,214 31,978 30,359 28,950 29,867 31,427 33,299 20,449 574 20090.2%5.1%9.9%13.1%12.4%11.9%12.2%12.9%13.6%8.4%0.2%2010233,116 227 9,009 19,436 27,861 27,785 27,540 30,603 32,643 35,478 21,904 630 20100.1%3.9%8.3%12.0%11.9%11.8%13.1%14.0%15.2%9.4%0.3%Variao da distribuio de subsdios por grupo etrio entre 2000 e 20122011261,093 260 10,680 22,812 31,805 31,344 30,222 33,715 36,308 39,208 24,136 603 20110.1%4.1%8.7%12.2%12.0%11.6%12.9%13.9%15.0%9.2%0.2%18-2020-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-692012331,357 361 13,727 29,454 42,578 44,655 41,125 43,350 43,769 44,328 27,355 655 20120.1%4.1%8.9%12.8%13.5%12.4%13.1%13.2%13.4%8.3%0.2%20002013309,081 168 10,078 22,236 34,828 39,222 38,928 42,983 44,589 44,924 30,380 745 20130.1%3.3%7.2%11.3%12.7%12.6%13.9%14.4%14.5%9.8%0.2%201238.5%87.3%113.8%139.8%162.1%137.6%116.2%90.9%67.4%56.9%40.3%

fi19222732374247525762672000cinifihfi(ci-media)^218-2019279 0.002827893822.1420000.3%4.7%7.8%9.2%8.3%9.0%11.3%14.5%19.8%14.5%0.5%20-24224,681 0.0474457734428.47mdia46.497648489820120.1%4.1%8.9%12.8%13.5%12.4%13.1%13.2%13.4%8.3%0.2%25-29277,707 0.0781167646429.70varincia152.200369495730-34329,067 0.0919014798419.32desvio padro12.336951385835-39378,202 0.083133995547.50Coeficiente de Var.=0.2653242FI192227323742475257626740-44428,896 0.090168254641.8245-494711,107 0.112578552640.0350-545214,342 0.145367930344.4020000.3%5.0%12.8%22.0%30.3%39.4%50.6%65.2%85.0%99.5%100.0%55-595719,579 0.1984492195421.8920120.1%4.3%13.1%26.0%39.5%51.9%65.0%78.2%91.5%99.8%100.0%60-646214,316 0.1451043989434.8765-6967484 0.004905736942.0698,660 152.202012cinifihfi(ci-media)^2200018-2019361 0.001089459420.66min1815.78675932720-242213,727 0.0414266184419.21mdia43.5364908543q133.78675932725-292729,454 0.088889023424.31varincia131.841639141mediana46.72584856430-343242,578 0.1284958519417.10desvio padro11.482231453q354.480719137935-393744,655 0.134764015845.76Coeficiente de Var.0.2637381017max6914.519280862140-444241,125 0.124110853240.2945-494743,350 0.130825665441.5750-545243,769 0.132090162649.4655-595744,328 0.1337771648424.25201260-646227,355 0.0825544654428.14min1813.614736483665-6967655 0.0019767241.09q131.6147364836331,357 131.841639141Mediana41.2435866261q350.8003781215max6918.1996218785

Na tabela original do PorData a classe "18-20" estava identificada como "