UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO RIO GRANDE DO SUL

FACULDADE DE CIÊNCIAS ECONÔMICAS

PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM ESTUDOS ESTRATÉGICOS INTERNACIONAIS

Disciplina: EEI08 - Finanças Internacionais e os Países Emergentes

Período Letivo: 2021 – Primeiro Semestre

Professores Responsáveis: Dr. André Moreira Cunha, Dr. Fernando Ferrari Filho e Dra. Luiza Peruffo

Número de créditos e carga horária: 4 créditos e 60 h/a

I. Ementa: Evolução do sistema financeiro internacional entre os séculos XIX e XXI. Instituições, mercados e

instrumentos financeiros internacionais. Regimes Cambiais e Gestão Macroeconômica. Impactos macroeconômicos

dos movimentos de capitais.

II. Objetivo: Compreender os aspectos teóricos, institucionais e empíricos associados à evolução do sistema financeiro

internacional.

III. Sistema de avaliação: A avaliação será composta de realização de trabalhos individuais.

IV. Metodologia: Aulas dialogadas síncronas (Plataforma Mconf ou outras) e disponibilização de material previamente

gravado.

V. Conteúdo

Parte I – O Sistema Monetário e Financeiro Internacional – Prof. Dr. André Moreira Cunha e Profa. Dra. Luiza Peruffo

1. Desempenho recente e perspectivas e perspectivas para o SMFI

Bibliografia Básica: Acemoglu (2021), Storm (2021), Unctad (2020, 2021), IMF (2021b, 2021c, 2021d), Credit Suisse

Institute (2020a, 2020b, 2021), BIS (2021), World Nank (2021a, 2021b), Borio (2020)

Bibliografia Complementar: Ocampo (2018, cap 1), Obstfeld (2008); BIS (2016b), Borio et al. (2017), Ostry et al. (2016),

BIS (2017a, 2017b), Lane e Milesi-Ferretti (2017), Neal (2016, cap. 14)

Resenha 1: Borio (2020) e Acemoglu (2021)

2. O Sistema Monetário e Financeiro Internacional (SMFI): hierarquia e instituições

Bibliografia Básica: Gourinchas et al. (2019), Obstfeld and Taylor (2017), De Paula, Fritz, Prates (2017), Cohen (2015a),

Armijo e Katada (2015)

Bibliografia Complementar: Armijo, Tirone, Chey (2020), Cohen (2012, 2013, 2014b, 2018), Baldwin (2013), Tomz

(2013), Kaltenbrunner e Painceira (2015)

Resenha 2: Cohen (2015a)

3. A Ordem Liberal e o Padrão Ouro Internacional

Bibliografia Básica: Helleiner (2008); Eichengreen (1996, Introdução e caps 2 e 3); Block (Introdução e capítulo II);

Kindleberger (1983, Introdução e cap. 14); Polanyi (1944, caps 1-2)

Bibliografia Complementar: Fisher (1933), Bernanke (1983, 1995), Minsky (1982, Introdução e caps. 1 e 2), Kregel

(2007), Wray e Tymoigne (2008); Wray (2009, 2012), Bordo (1993b), Isard (2005, cap.1), Bordo & Kydland (1987), Isard

(2005, cap. 2), Polanyi (1944, caps 1-2), Eichengreen (1985, 1987, 1989), Obstfeld et al. (2004), Isard (2005, cap. 2),

Hobsbawm (1995, caps. 3-4)

Resenha 3: Polanyi (1944, caps 1-2)

4. O Sistema Bretton Woods: a tentativa de regulação das finanças internacionais

Bibliografia Básica: Kose (2020), Helleiner (2008); Eichengreen (1996, cap. 4), Boughton (2002), Neal (2016, cap. 12),

Ocampo (2016 e 2018)

Bibliografia Complementar: Block (capítulo III e IV), De Cecco (1979); Isard (2005, cap.2), Keynes (1943, 1944); Bordo

(1993); Strange (1998, Introdução); Helleiner (1994, caps. 2-3); Boughton (1997, 2006); Bordo (1993b)

Resenha 4: Boughton (2002)

5. Globalização Financeira

Bibliografia Básica: Eichengreen et al. (2021),Razin (2020), Tonveronachi (2020), Prasad et al. (2003); Epstein (2005),

Streeck (2014), Kregel (2015), McKinsey Global Institute (2016), Ostry et al. (2016), The Economist (2015. 2016a,

2016b), Neal (2016, caps 13 e 14), Ilzetzki et al. (2017), Akyuz (2014), Lane e Milesi-Ferretti (2017).

Bibliografia Complementar: Nier, Sedik, e Mondino (2014), Borio, James e Shin (2014), Epstein (2005); Eichengreen

(2015), Claessens e Kose (2013), Reinhart e Rogoff (2013), Rodrik e Subramanian (2009); World Bank (2005, cap. 7),

Isard (2005, cap. 2, 4 e 5), Zingales (2015).

Resenha 5: Eichengreen et al. (2021)

6. Fluxos de Capitais e Ciclos na Era das Turbulências

Bibliografia Básica: Aldosoro et al. (2020), Batini e Durand (2021), World Bank (2016, 2020, 2021), Bibow (2020), Kose

(2020), Borio et al. (2019).

Bibliografia Complementar: Habib e Venditti (2018); Cerutti et al. (2017), BIS (2015, caps. III e V; 2014, cap. IV);

Alberola-Ila e Benigno (2017), Gerko e Rey (2017), Borio (2012, 2014), Eichengreen et al. (2021), Mitchener e Trebesch

(2021), Storm (2021), Ilzetzki et al. (2020), Hannan (2018), BIS (2018, p.1-55), Obstfeld e Taylor (2017), Ilzetzki et al.

(2017), Qianying et al. (2017); Ghosh e Qureshi (2016); Furceri e Loungani (2015); Reinhart e Rogoff (2008, 2013, 2014);

Chinn e Ito (2008), Reinhart, Reinhart e Trebesch (2016); Ostry et al. (2010); Borio (2012, 2013), Calderón e Fuentes

(2010), Alberola-Ila et al. (2016); World Bank (2016), Pérez Caldentey e Vernengo (2016); Schmitt-Grohé e Uribe

(2016); Fayad e Perrelli (2014); Borio (2014); Cecchetti e Kharroubi (2015); Caldentey, Titelman e Carvallo (2013);

Resenha 6: Aldosoro et al. (2020)

7. A Ascensão da China: uma nova ordem internacional?

Bibliografia Básica: Chandrasekhar (2021), IMF (2021a), Nicita e Razo (2021), Manyika, J. et al (2020), NIC (2021), US-

China Security and Economic Review Commission (2020, Executive Summary), Fukuyama (2020), Allison (2017), Biden

Jr. (2020), US Government (2020), Wang (2018), Allison (2017, 2018), Ikenberry (2018), Ratner (2018); Kissinger (2011,

2015)

Bibliografia Complementar: ver: https://aric.adb.org/publications, https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/CHN,

https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china

Resenha 7: Allison (2017, 2018, 2021)

Parte II – Tópicos Especiais – Prof. Dr. Fernando Ferrari Filho

Macroeconomia aberta e modelos de demand-led growth

CARLIN, W.; SOSKICE, D. Macroeconomics: imperfection, institutions and policies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006.

BAUMANN, R.; CANUTO, O.; GONÇALVES, R. (2004). Economia Internacional: teoria e experiência brasileira. Rio de Janeiro: Campus, 2004

HEIN, E. The Macroeconomics of Finance-Dominated Capitalism and Its Crisis. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2012.

OREIRO, J.L.; PAULA, L.F.; BASILIO, F. Macroeconomia do Desenvolvimento: ensaios sobre restrição externa, financiamento e política macroeconômica. Recife: Editora Universitária UFPE, 2012.

Obs. Talvez Oreiro et al seja acessível para os alunos do PPGEI.

Globalização financeira, crises cambial-financeiras e economia mundial em tempos de Covid-19

ARAUJO, E.; ARAUJO, E.; FERRARI FILHO, F. Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Evidence of Countercyclical Economic Policies Implemented During the Subprime and COVID-19 Crises: The Brazilian Case. Draft, 2021.

EPSTEIN, G.A. Financialization and the World Economy. Aldershot: Edward Elgar, 2005.

FERRARI FILHO, F.; PAULA, L.F. A Crise Financeira Internacional: origens, desdobramentos e perspectivas. São Paulo: Editora Unesp, 2012.

IMF. World Economic Outlook: The Great Lockdown. http://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo. April, 2020.

IMF. World Economic Outlook: A Crisis Like No Other. http://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo. Junel, 2020.

IMF. World Economic Outlook: A Long and Difficult Ascent. http://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo. October, 2020.

KINDLEBERGER, C.P.; ALIBER, R.Z. (2005). Manias, Panics and Crashes: a history of financial crises. London: Palgrave Macmillan.

KRUGMAN, P. (2008). The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008. London: Penguin Books.

REINHART, C; ROGOFF, K. (2009). This Time Is Different: eight centuries of financial folly. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

RODRIK, D. (2011). The Globalization Paradox. New York: W.W.Norton & Company.

Planejamento e Cronograma

Aula Atividade Data

1 Apresentação 20/mai

2 Desempenho Recente 27/mai

3 SMFI 10/jun

4 A Ordem Liberal 17/jun

5 SBW 24/jun

6 Macro Ferrari 01/jul

7 Macro Ferrari 08/jul

8 Macro Ferrari 15/jul

9 Globalização Financeira 22/jul

10 Capitais e Ciclos 29/jul

11 China 05/ago

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