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Prospective Foresight in Brazil: An overview and cases

Claudio PortoCEO Macroplan, Prospectiva, Estratégia & Gestão

MUTUAL LEARNING WORKSHOP ON SCENARIOS CGEE, Brasília (Brazil), 5 December 2012

Claudio Porto

CEO of Macroplan – Prospectiva, Estratégia & Gestão

30 years working on prospective foresight

Macroplan is recognized in the Brazilian marketplace as one of the most

experienced consulting Brazilian companies in prospective studies and strategic

management

Almost 80 prospective studies produced to date

Contents

The evolution of Prospective Foresight in Brazil

Five emblematic cases

1. Scenarios of the Brazilian Economy, BNDES (1984-90)

2. Scenarios about the future of the Amazon Region (ELETRONORTE) (1988, 1998)

3. Introduction and Consolidation of the use of Scenarios in Petrobras (1989, 1992)

4. Scenarios in the State of Minas Gerais (2003-2007)

5. Brazil in transition: current landscape and future trends 2011-2022 (2011)

Summary and conclusions

The Evolution of Prospective Foresight in Brazil -

From the 1970’s to today

Until the 1970’s: embryos (IDESP and IUPERJ)

1980’s: emergence (the precursors)

1990’s: dissemination

2000 to today: generalization in large companies or institutions

The choice of cases

Criteria: the relevance of its impacts, using an elegant application of the

idea of the “Greek Triangle” built by Michel Godet (1991)

THE GREEK TRIANGLE

ANTICIPATION (Reason)

ACTION (Accomplishment)

APPROPRIATION (Desire)

The 1980’s

1980’s - The Brazilian Context

1. External crisis (including the consequences of the oil prices shock in our

economy and default of the Brazilian external debt)

2. Low economic growth (“the lost decade”, average 1.55% /year) and

social crisis (39% of population in poverty in 1989)

3. Hyperinflation (1,973% in 1989)

4. Economy: closed and technologically outdated

5. Politics: transition from a military regimen to democracy.

First CaseBNDES economy scenarios (1984)

» The National Bank for Economic and Social Development – BNDES is currently the main financial institution for long-term investments in all segments of the Brazilian economy. In 2011 the ampount of it’s disbursements was about US$ 70 billion

» 1984: BNDES implemented a strategic planning process that included the use of two macroeconomic scenarios:

ADJUSTMENT SCENARIO (THE “OFFICIAL” VISION)

• Scrolling annual external debt

• Economy: continuity of restrictive policies in accordance with the IMF

ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO

• External debt renegotiation in the long term and with better conditions

• Economic policy: resumption of development

COMPETITIVE INTEGRATION SCENARIO

• Updated industrial structure

• Open and competitive economy

• External debt renegotiation in the long term and with better conditions

• Confidencial

• Information leak

• High repercussion in society

1º

First CaseBNDES economy scenarios (1984) - Impacts

1º

ANTICIPATION

» The possibility of a new cycle of economic growth

APPROPRIATION

» By the elected President of the Republic (1989), supported by a strong

national desire to overcome recession

ACTION AND CONSEQUENCES

» Beginning of the openness of the Brazilian economy

Second Case (Part one)The scenarios of the Amazon Region and electric energy (Eletronorte, 1988)

2º

» ELETRONORTE is a state-owned company

that generates and provides electric power

to the nine states of the Amazon Region

and also provides energy to buyers from

other regions of the country. Total installed

capacity = 9.294,33 megawatts and

transmission systems have over 9.888,02

km of lines.

» Mission: Acting in energy markets in an

integrated, cost-effective and sustainable

way

• AMAZON REGION = 49,29% BRAZIL´S TOTAL AREA

Second Case (Part one)The scenarios of the Amazon Region and electric energy (Eletronorte, 1988)

2º

» Aim: supporting its assessments of demand for electric energy and investment plan.

» Three scenarios of Amazon Region from 1989-2010

» Two important contributions of this study

» introduced the embryo of the sustainable development concept increasing influence in

the company’s decisions

» Introduced the use of scenarios to prospect the market of electrical energy in Brazil

instead of extrapolative forecasts A pioneering initiative that becomes standard in the

electrical sector in the 1990’s.

INTEGRATION WITH THE NATIONAL PROJECT

FOCUS ON ENDOGENOUS DEVELOPMENT

ECOLOGIC AND CULTURAL RESTRICTION

1 2 3

The 1990’s

1990’s - The Brazilian Context

1. Stabilization of the economy after the Real Plan in 1994

2. Continuous opening of the Brazilian economy

3. Privatization in several economic sectors, end of monopolies and

increased competition

4. Modernization of public institutions (remarkable: regulation)

5. Increased soundness of the financial system

6. Consolidation of democracy

Third CaseScenarios of Oil & Gas Industry – (PETROBRAS, 1989, 1992, 1996)

3º

» Petrobras is a publicly traded joint-stock corporation whose main shareholder is the

Government of Brazil. It acts as an energy company in the following sectors:

exploration and production, refinement, marketing and transportation of oil and

natural gas, petrochemicals, distribution of oil, electricity, biofuels and other renewable

energy sources. The company leads the Brazilian oil sector.

» Petrobras Business Plan 2012-2016: investments totaling US$ 236.5 billion (R$ 416,5

billion) - an average of US $ 47,3 billion per year.

» Strategic planning was formally adopted by PETROBRAS in 1989 and based on scenario

analysis.

Third CaseScenarios of Oil & Gas Industry – (PETROBRAS, 1989, 1992)

3º

» A participative process

» The scenarios and strategic Options in 1992 (Strategic Plan 1992-

2001)

PETROBRAS’ SCENARIOS

GLOBAL SCENARIOS AND FOCUS ON OIL INDUSTRY

1. Trans-nationalization - hegemony of big private oil companies

2. Fragmented Cooperation - shared hegemony in the petroleum industry

NATIONAL SCENARIOS AND FOCUS ON OIL INDUSTRY

• Neoliberal

• Permanency of the crisis

• Welfare state

STRATEGIC OPTIONS

• Consolidation and strengthening in the national market

• Expansion of international operations

• Integration, competitiveness and business excellence

Third CaseScenarios of Oil & Gas Industry – (PETROBRAS, 1989, 1992)

3º

ANTICIPATION

» Loss of monopoly and emergence of competition

» Increasing uncertainty and new challenges in the industry

APPROPRIATION

» Assimilation of scenarios and prospective methods by a large portion of the senior management and technical

staff of the company


» Preparation of the company and its managers and professionals to deal successfully with the end of monopoly,

increasing competition and higher uncertainty

» PETROBRAS developed a skilled decision making process when faced with uncertainties. Today, the

construction of scenarios, which started in the company over 23 years ago, is part of their culture and strategic

management process

» In 1998, ELETRONORTE decided to revisit the 10 years old prospective study

» The prospects of 1989 against the real events of the previous 10 years were evaluated

» Four scenarios were devised for the Amazon Region looking into the following 20 years:

Second Case (Part two)The scenarios of the Amazon Region and electric energy (Eletronorte, 1998)

2º

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT, MODERATE INTEGRATION AND BETTER QUALITY OF LIFE

ECONOMIC GROWTH AT THE EXPENSE OF ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION

1 2

3STAGNATION AND POVERTY

3 4

Second Case (Part two)The scenarios of the Amazon Region and electric energy (Eletronorte, 1988) - Impacts

2º

ANTICIPATION

» A systemic view of the main issues and challenges resulting from the economic

exploitation of the Amazon Region

APPROPRIATON

» Relevant contribution to a gradual formation of a political convergence concerning the

sustainable development of the Amazon Region.

» Recognizing of the potential of economic exploitation of biodiversity


» The search for new sustainable production standards for the Amazon Region

2000’s to Today

2000’s to Today – The Brazilian Context

1. Prolonged economic stability

2. Overcoming of external restrictions

3. Increasing social inclusion: “Brazil, a medium class country”

4. Increasing insertion of Brazil into global economy

5. Brazil emerges as an attractive land of economic opportunities

6. New challenges and uncertainties facing the future of the country in the medium and long terms

Fourth CaseScenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007)

4º

“To turn Minas Gerais into the best

state to live in”

• Strategic Guidelines

• Projects

Scenarios for Minas Gerais State 2003-2023

I

CONQUEST of a better future

II

WASTE of opportunities

III

OVERCOMING adversities

IV

DECADENCE and impoverishment

Sustained development of domestic economy

Domestic economy with intermittent growth

Brazil

Minas Gerais environment

Creative

Competitive

Inclusive


Conservative

Inefficient

Excluding

Min

as G

erai

s

• AREA: 586,528 KM² (LARGER THAN FRANCE)

• POPULATION: NEARLY 20 MILLION PEOPLE

• ECONOMY: THIRD AMONG BRAZILIAN STATES

INVESTMENT

&BUSINESSNETWORK CITIES

EQUITY AND

WELFARE

ENVIRONMENTAL

SUSTAINABILITY

COMPETITIVE

TERRITORIAL

INTEGRATION

INTEGRATED

PERSPECTIVE OF THE

HUMAN CAPITAL

STATE FOR

RESULTS


4º


state to live in”


• Projects




INVESTMENT


EQUITY AND

WELFARE

ENVIRONMENTAL

SUSTAINABILITY

COMPETITIVE

TERRITORIAL

INTEGRATION

INTEGRATED

PERSPECTIVE OF THE

HUMAN CAPITAL

STATE FOR

RESULTS


I


II


III


IV




Brazil


Creative

Competitive

Inclusive


Conservative

Inefficient

Excluding

Min

as G

erai

s


I


II


III


IV




Brazil

Minas Gerais’ environment

Creative

Competitive

Inclusive

Minas Gerais’ environment

Conservative

Inefficient

Excluding

Min

as G

erai

s


4º


state to live in”


• Projects


I


II


III


IV




Brazil


Creative

Competitive

Inclusive


Conservative

Inefficient

Excluding

Min

as G

erai

s




INVESTMENT


EQUITY AND

WELFARE

ENVIRONMENTAL

SUSTAINABILITY

COMPETITIVE

TERRITORIAL

INTEGRATION

INTEGRATED

PERSPECTIVE OF THE

HUMAN CAPITAL

STATE FOR

RESULTS

INVESTMENT &BUSINESS

NETWORK CITIES

EQUITY AND WELFARE

ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY

COMPETITIVE TERRITORIAL INTEGRATION

INTEGRATED PERSPECTIVE OF

THE HUMAN CAPITAL

STATE FOR RESULTS


4º


• Projects


I


II


III


IV




Brazil


Creative

Competitive

Inclusive


Conservative

Inefficient

Excluding

Min

as G

erai

s




INVESTMENT


EQUITY AND

WELFARE

ENVIRONMENTAL

SUSTAINABILITY

COMPETITIVE

TERRITORIAL

INTEGRATION

INTEGRATED

PERSPECTIVE OF THE

HUMAN CAPITAL

STATE FOR

RESULTS


state to live in”

AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FOUR SCENARIOS, THE FIRST ONE

OF THEM WAS CHOSEN AS A REFERENCE FOR THE CREATION OF THE

VISION OF THE FUTURE FOR MINAS GERAIS OVER A PERIOD OF 20

YEARS:

“TO TURN MINAS GERAIS INTO THE BEST STATE TO LIVE IN”


4º


state to live in”


I


II


III


IV




Brazil


Creative

Competitive

Inclusive


Conservative

Inefficient

Excluding

Min

as G

erai

s




INVESTMENT


EQUITY AND

WELFARE

ENVIRONMENTAL

SUSTAINABILITY

COMPETITIVE

TERRITORIAL

INTEGRATION

INTEGRATED

PERSPECTIVE OF THE

HUMAN CAPITAL

STATE FOR

RESULTS


• Projects

THE VISION WAS THEN SPLIT INTO:

• STRATEGIC GUIDELINES

• PORTFOLIO OF STRUCTURING AND LEVERAGING PROJECTS

FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STATE


4º

ANTICIPATION

» The threat of losing many opportunities unless making severe adjustments in the state and its

government

APPROPRIATION

» Choice of strategies aligned with the scenarios

» Realization of the urgent need for modernization of the state government toward higher

efficiency


» Public policies aligned with the scenarios

» “The shock of management” in state government

Summary and Conclusions

BNDES (1984)

ELETRONORTE (1988, 1998)

PETROBRAS (1989, 1992, 1996)

MINAS GERAIS (2003-2023)

Anticipation

The possibility of a new cycle of economic growth

The anticipation of political, economic, and environmental issues resulting from the economic exploitation of the Amazon Region

Loss of monopoly and emergence of competition

Increasing uncertainty

The threat of losing many opportunities unless making severe adjustments in the state and its government

Appropriation

By the elected President (1989)

A strong national desire to overcome recession

Contribution to a gradual formation of a political convergence concerning Amazon region’s biggest challenge.

The potential of economic exploitation of biodiversity

Assimilation of prospective methods by a large portion of the senior management and technical staff of the company

Choice of strategies aligned with the scenarios

Realization of the urgent need for modernization of the state government toward higher efficiency

Action

The beginning of the openness of the Brazilian economy

The search for new production standards on sustainable base

Preparation of managers and professionals to deal successfully with the end of monopoly, competition and higher uncertainty

Public policies aligned with the scenarios

“The shock of management” in state government

Conclusions

The use and dissemination of prospective foresight in Brazil made significant progress during the last 30 years.

Unfortunately, we are still missing a long term prospective and strategic view for the country. We – society, state, companies – are excessively focused on short term tactic questions.

However, there has been an increasing demand for a long term view from new leaderships. Our current development stage itself requires such view.

I am, therefore, optimistic: this is likely the decade when Brazil – as a nation and a society – will pursue and build a long term vision of development.

And all of us, with the methods and tools of prospective foresight , will be able to make relevant contributions to this project.

Thank you. [email protected]

References

Remarkable Prospective Projects

supported by Macroplan

1. Cenários do ambiente de atuação das micro e pequenas empresas do Rio de Janeiro 2012-2013 (2012)

2. Análise de tendências de longo prazo e elaboração do Plano Mineiro de Desenvolvimento Integrado horizonte 2030 (2011)

3. Quatro cenários da cidade de Belo Horizonte 2010-2030 (2009)

4. Cenários do Ambiente de Atuação do do Sistema Eletrobras 2020 (2010)

5. Quatro Cenários Econômicos para o Brasil 2008-2014 6. Cenários Exploratórios do Rio de Janeiro no Horizonte

2007-2027 (2007)7. Cenários Exploratórios de Minas Gerais no Horizonte

2007-2023 (2007)8. Cenários do ambiente de atuação das organizações

públicas de PD&I do Agronegócio no Horizonte 2023 (Embrapa, 2007)

9. Três Cenários para o Desenvolvimento do Estado do Espírito Santo (2006)

10. “O Ensino Superior no Mundo e no Brasil – Condicionantes, Tendências e Cenários para o Horizonte 2003-2025” (2003)

11. Cenários de Desenvolvimento para a elaboração do Plano Estratégico do Sistema Petrobras – 2004-2015 (2003 – 2004)

12. Construção de Cenários para o Setor Energético e o segmento de Óleo e Gás 2002-2010 e elaboração da Visão de Futuro do Projeto Tendências Tecnológicas para o CTPETRO – Fundo Setorial do Petróleo (Mar-Jul, 2002).

13. Atualização dos Cenários Sócio-Econômicos e Energéticos da Amazônia para o Horizonte 1998/2020 - ELETRONORTE (Out, 2000 - Abril, 2001)

14. Elaboração dos cenários focalizados no mercado de distribuição de combustíveis no Brasil – horizonte 2002/2006 (2001)

15. Mapeamento das Incertezas e Construção dos Cenários do Mercado de Energia Elétrica – Horizonte 2001-2011 ( 2001).

16. Cenários da Educação a Distância no Brasil – Horizonte 2010; como etapa integrante do processo de planejamento estratégico do desenvolvimento da Educação à Distância do SENAC São Paulo para o horizonte 2000-2005 (Fev-Abril 2000)

17. Cenários do setor de Telecomunicações no Brasil no Horizonte 1996/2010 para a EMBRATEL (1996)

18. Consultoria metodológica à Secretaria de Assuntos Estratégicos da Presidência da República na construção de Cenários Exploratórios do Brasil no Horizonte 2020 (Jan - Jun, 1996)

19. Consultoria à elaboração de análise prospectiva e Cenários de Educação Profissional e do ambiente de atuação do SENAI – Horizonte 1995-2010 ( 1995)

20. Cenários para o Mato Grosso do Sul no horizonte 1995-2010 (Mar-Set, 1995)

Bibliography

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de Janeiro, p. 291. 2002. MOURÃO, Júlio – “A Integração Competitiva e o Planejamento Estratégico no BNDES”. Revista do BNDES, V. 1, Nº 2, pp 3-26, dez, 1994. MOURÃO, Júlio (coord.) – “Vitória do Futuro - Plano estratégico da cidade 1996-2020”. Prefeitura de Vitória, 1996. PETROBRAS – “Plano Estratégico de Negócios 2009-2013”. Disponível em www.petrobras.com.br. Acessado em 09.02.2010. PMDI 2003-2023 – “Plano Mineiro de Desenvolvimento Integrado 2003-2023”. Disponível em: http://www.planejamento.mg.gov.br/governo/publicacoes/plano_mineiro_des_integrado.asp. Acessado em 04.02.10. PMDI 2007-2023 – “Plano Mineiro de Desenvolvimento Integrado de Minas Gerais 2007-2023”. Disponível em: http://www.planejamento.mg.gov.br/governo/publicacoes/plano_mineiro_des_integrado.asp. Acessado em 04.02.10. PORTO, Claudio – “Cenários no Brasil”, Seminário Internacional MILLENIUM: Prospectiva e Estratégia para a Era da Nova Economia. Rio de Janeiro, Fundação Getúlio Vargas, set, 2000. PORTO, Claudio – “Macrocenários da Amazônia 2000 – 2020”. PARCERIAS ESTRATÉGICAS, N. 12 ISSN 1413-9375, setembro, 2001. PORTO, Claudio e GIAMBIAGI, Fabio, orgs – “2022 - Propostas para um Brasil Melhor no Ano do Bicentenário” PREFEITURA DE BELO HORIZONTE – “Planejamento Estratégico de Belo Horizonte 2030 – A Cidade que Queremos”. Belo Horizonte, 2009. REVISTA SENHOR – “Sem Mudança o Brasil Acaba”. São Paulo, Brasil, Nº 175, julho, 1984. SAE/PR – “Cenários Exploratórios do Brasil 2020”. Secretaria de Assuntos Estratégicos da Presidência da República. Brasília, setembro, 1997. SAE/PR – “Projeto Brasil 3 Tempos – Cenários Prospectivos”. Cadernos NAE, Nov, 2006. Disponível em www.sae.gov.br. Acessado em 05.02.10. WACK, Pierre – “Cenários: Águas Desconhecidas Adiante”. Harvard Business Review, Boston, Set/Out 1985. WACK, Pierre – “Cenários: Atravessando as Torrentes”. Harvard Business Review, Boston, Nov/Dez 1985.

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http://www.sae.gov.br/

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