ministério da ciência e tecnologia instituto nacional de pesquisas espaciais centro de previsão...
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Ministério da Ciência e TecnologiaMinistério da Ciência e TecnologiaInstituto Nacional de Pesquisas EspaciaisInstituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos ClimáticosCentro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos
El Niño-Tropical El Niño-Tropical Cyclones/Hurricanes and Cyclones/Hurricanes and
Extreme weatherExtreme weather
Trends in tropical Cyclones and Hurricanes
Frequency and Strength of Hurricanes over the North Atlantic
During the last century an increase in frequency and strength of tropical storms could not be proven.
Number of hurricanes and tropical stroms in the North Atlantic basin Source: Climate Assessment 1998, BAMS, 1999.
Strength ( Vmax 2 / 105) of hurricanes and tropical stroms in the
North Atlantic. Source: Climate Assessment 1999, BAMS, 2000.
Atlantic accumulated hurricane energy August to October in different ENSO events, 1950-2001.
Tracks Density of Atlantic Hurricanes August to October, 1950-2001 for El Niño years (top pannel) and La Niña years (bottom pannel).
Tracks of tropical cyclones in the South Pacific in two contrasting years.
Top: 1975/76 season, cold phase of ENSO (La Niña).
Bottom: 1976/77 season, warm phase of ENSO (El Niño).
Comparison of hurricane tracks for wet versus dry years based on Gulf of Guinea rainfall. (A) The 10 wettest years and all hurricanes; (B) 10 driest years and all hurricanes; (C) 10 wettest years and tropical-only hurricanes; (D) 10 driest years and tropical-only hurricanes. Number of hurricanes for each category are shown in the upper-right corner of each panel (from Hess et al. 1995).
Location of meteorological and oceanographic parameters used in the Atlantic seasonal forecasts by Gray et al.101 See text for details.
Annual number of tropical storms in the Northwest Pacific Basin from 1959-1994. Two second-order polynomials are fit to the time series shown in the dashed (1959-1994) and dash-dotted (1972-1994) lines.
Annual number of tropical and subtropical storms over the Atlantic basin for the period of reliable record. The best fit linear trend is superimposed on the time series. (Figure adapted from Landsea et al. 1996).
Annual number of intense hurricanes in the Atlantic basin for the period of reliable record. Data from 1944-1969 have been revised downward to reflect the overestimation of intensities during these years. See Landsea (1993) for details. (Figure adapted from Landsea et al. 1996).
Annual number of intense hurricanes that have made landfall along the US East Coast, which has been subdivided into the Florida peninsula (black) and the Upper Atlantic (from Georgia to New England in blue) for the period of reliable records. Figure updated from Landsea (1993).
Extreme rainfall events:Venezuela
December 1999
Mar
Car
ibe N
Caracas DF
Cerro El Avila
3-D Projection of Caracas andCoastal line of Venezuela
La Guaira
Maiquetia
Region affected by intense rainfall, landslides, and floods
N
PLUMAS DE SEDIMENTACIÓN LITORAL
CONOIDES DE DEYECCIÓN REACTIVADOS, SEDIMENTACIÓN E INUNDACIÓN VIOLENTA
CAUCES Y TORRENTES DE MONTAÑA POR DONDE TRANSITARON LAS AVALANCHAS
ÁREAS CON DESLIZAMIENTOS, EROSIÓN INTENSA, ALUDES
CARACAS
LA GUAIRAMAIQUETÍA
EL ÁVILA
LOS EFECTOS DE LA GEODINÁMICA EXTERNA, LOS EFECTOS DE LA GEODINÁMICA EXTERNA, COSTA CENTRAL DE VENEZUELA, DICIEMBRE, 1999COSTA CENTRAL DE VENEZUELA, DICIEMBRE, 1999(Mapa esquemático basado en información periodística -prensa, televisión- e información facilitada por R. Sancio y D. Salcedo)
Other extreme rainfall events in Venezuela
Another intense rainfal episode:February 1951
Mapa Sinóptico 17/02/51 (CNMH)
Rainfall estimated by satellite in Venezuela 15-17 December 1999
Forecast of rainfall (accumulated 24 hours) for 15 December –Global and regional models
MGC CPTEC/COLA T126
(100 km)
Modelo regional Eta/ (24 horas) Modelo regional Eta/ (60 horas)
MGC CPTEC/COLA T062 (200 km)
El Niño-regional impacts and variability
Fact:
Once developed, El Niño and La Niña "events" are known to shift seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns in many different regions of the world. In several parts of the tropics, and some areas outside of the tropics, these seasonal shifts are fairly consistent from one El Niño and La Niña event to the next. It is important to remember, however, that no two El Niño or La Niña events are identical and that the seasonal shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns associated with them can vary from one event to the next. Thus, when an El Niño or La Niña develops, it does not guarantee that regions which are typically affected by them will be affected, only that there is enhanced probability that this will be the case.
Defficient rain
Abundant rain
Rainfall anomalies During El Niño andLa Niña
SECTORS AFFECTED BY EL NIÑO 1997-98IN MESOAMERICA
AgricultureForestryFishery
Natural Disasters(drought)
AgricultureForestryFishery
Natural disasters(drought)
Health
AgricultureForestry
Natural Disasters(droughts and floods)
AgricultureForestry
Natural disasters(drought)
AgriculturaGeneración de Energía
Desastres Naturales(sequías)
AgricultureHealth
CommunicationsElectricity generation
¿ How muchc did El Niño 1997-98 cost in Mexico?
In other countries:In other countries:(millions of dollars)(millions of dollars)
Bolivia 527Bolivia 527Colombia Colombia 564 564EcuadorEcuador 2882 2882PerúPerú 3498 3498VenezuelaVenezuela 72 72Costa Rica 82 Costa Rica 82 Argentina 2500Argentina 2500Source: CEPAL, CAFSource: CEPAL, CAF
Fuente: Magaña et. al. 1999Fuente: Magaña et. al. 1999
Summers during El Niño featured severe droughts in most of Mexico
Summers during La Niña, back toNormal or aboe normal rain
El Niño
La Niña
Rains in NW Mexico show littleAssociation with EL Nino (lowerPredictability).
Summers of El Niño Drought in large part of Mexico
% Superficiesiniestrada
Rainfall anomalies duringSummer of El Niño
Impacts in the agriculture in 1997
Rainfall summer of 1982Very wetVery wet, , wetwet, , normalnormal, , drydry, , very dryvery dry
Rainfall Summer of 1997Very wetVery wet, , wetwet, , normalnormal, , drydry, , very dryvery dry
Rainfall in Summer 1986Very wetVery wet, , wetwet, , normalnormal, , drydry, , very dryvery dry
Rainfall in summer 1991 Very wetVery wet, , wetwet, , normalnormal, , drydry, , very dryvery dry
Forecast for summer 2002
JunioJunio
JulioJulio
AgostoAgosto
SeptiembreSeptiembre
Very wetVery wet, , wetwet, , normalnormal, , drydry, , very dryvery dry
Impacto en clima/hidrológia
Sub región o país Referencia
Sequías severas en años recientes
México Magaña et al. (1999)
Sequías severas Nordeste de Brasil Hastenrath y Heller (1977), Hastenrath and Greischar (1883), Nobre y Shukla (1996), Silva Dias y Marengo (1999)
Disminución de precipitación
América Central;-Cuenca del Pacífico
Magaña et al. (1999)
Aumento de precipitación América Central;-Cuenca del Atlántico
Magaña et al. (1999), Carvajal et al. (1999)
Disminción de precipitación y descargas de ríos
Colombia Poveda y Mesa (1997)
Aumento de precipitación y descargas de ríos
Noroeste de Peru-Ecuador
Cornejo et al. (1986), Marengo et al. (1998a), SENAMHI (1999), Peñaherrera (1999)
Disminución e precipitación, sequias y aumento de riesgo de incendios forestales
Norte de Amazonia Marengo (1992), Aceituno (1988), Richey et al. (1999), Nepstad et al. (1999), Meggers et al. (1994)
Aumento de precipitación (Nov-Ene)
Región de Pampas Argentinas
Tanco y Berri (1996), Barros et al. (1996), Nagrin et al. (1998)
Aumento de precipitación (Nov-Ene)
Uruguay Bidegain y Cafera (1989), Pisciotano et al. (1994)
Aumento de descargas Chile y centro oeste de Argentina
(Compganucci (2000), Compagnucci y Vargas (1998)
Sequías Altiplano Peru-Bolivia Aceituno (1988), SENAMHI (1998-99)
Impacto en clima/hidrológia
Sub región o país Referencia
Precipitaciones abudantes e inundaciones
Colombia Carvajal et al. 1999
Disminución de precipitación, sequias
Uruguay Bidegain y Cafera (1989), Pisciotano et al. (1994)
Sequias severas Sur de Brasil Grimm et al. (1996, 2000)
Disminución de precipitación (Oct-Dic)
Pampas Argentinas Tanco y Berri (1996), Barros et al. (1996), Magrin net al. (1998)
Disminción de precipitación y descargas de ríos
Colombia Poveda y Mesa (1997)
Incremento de precipitacion y descargas
Nordeste de Brasil, Norte de Amazonia de Peru y Brasil
Marengo (1992), Aceituno (1988), Meggers et al. (1884), Marengo et al. (1998b), Trebejo y Diaz (1998)
Disminución de precipitación
Chile y Centro oeste de Argentina
Compagnucci 20000)
Tendencias a sequias Norte de Peru Marengo et al. (1998a), Aceituno (1988)
Climate Trends
Patterns of Global Temperature Change
°C Temperature anomalies from the period 1961-1990
Climate Trends and extreme events
Observed (20th century) linear trends in total seasonal precipitation and frequency of heavy precipitation events for various region. From Easterling et al., BAMS, 81, 2000, 417-425.
Climate Change and human health
Distribution of Aedes aegypti (shaded areas) in the Americas in 1970, at the end of the mosquito eradication program, and in 1995.