global burden of animal diseases(gbads) · 2019. 12. 19. · •bill and melinda gates foundation...

Aquaculture round-table, FAO, Rome18th December 2019https://animalhealthmetrics.org

Global Burden of Animal Diseases (GBADs)

J. Rushton, M. Bruce, C. Bellet, P Torgerson, A.P.M. Shaw, M. Herrero, T. Marsh, D. Pendell, T. Bernardo, D. Pigott, M. Stone, J. Pinto, S. Mesenhowski, T. Leyland, M.

Peyre, K. Watkins, V. Kapur, A. Havelaar, D. Grace, B. Huntington, P. Wood and GBADs collaborators

[email protected]

https://animalhealthmetrics.org/

http://liverpool.ac.uk

https://animalhealthmetrics.org

Acknowledgements

• FAO – Melba Reantaso• OIE –Monique Eloit, Matthew Stone, Emily Tagliaro, Stian Johnsen• Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation – Sam Thevasagayam, Shannon

Mesenhowski, Belinda Richardson• UK’s Department of International Development – Alan Tollervey, Tim

Leyland• N8 Agrifood – Katherine Denby• University of Liverpool – Nigel Cunliffe, Matthew Baylis, Nicola

Williams and our research group• GBADs collaborators



Agenda

• What is the impact of disease in livestock and aquaculture for producers, consumers and the environment?• The use of economics in animal health• Why is a systematic approach needed?• The Global Burden of Animal Diseases• Closing questions



Importance of livestock and aquaculture

• Societies are dependent on livestock and aquaculture for high quality protein and micronutrients• The changes in our food system have allowed a significant increase in

the number of animals we keep and maintain in farming systems• And the way these animals are managed has meant a significant

increase in the availability of meat and fish in both rich and poor countries • However malnutrition continues generating negative externalities

that demand societal coordination


There are billions of poor consumers who have micronutrient and protein deficient diets


Importance of livestock and aquaculture

• A major proportion of the livestock and aquatic species we keep are in large farms under controlled and intensive conditions• They are major users of pharmaceuticals

• Yet the majority of the livestock keepers and aquatic farmers have small scale enterprises• These people are poor and in many situations have poor access to

veterinary services and veterinary technologies• The inadequate distribution of animal health systems is a market

failure which needs societal intervention



There are hundreds of millions of poor producers who have poor access to animal

health services and technologies



Livestock and aquaculture dominate resource use

• Livestock and aquaculture have become dominant:• Land use – it is estimated that two thirds of land is dedicated to livestock

(Wirsenius et al, 2010)• Water use – agriculture takes between 70% and 90% of the freshwater

(Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007) and a third is used on livestock (Gerben-Leenes et al, 2013)• Environmental emissions with livestock being a major source of methane and

indirectly CO2 emissions and local pollution (FAO, 2006)

• Land, water and air resources are largely public goods – they need to be managed and controlled with societal oversight



Our livestock keepers, consumers and the environment need:• Investment plans which ensure there are adequate

animal health systems• Allocation of resources to problems that most affect their

health and wellbeing• Evaluation of animal health investments to ensure they

are delivering on societal outcomes



How are we currently using economics in animal health?



No attributionActual Size of the Opportunity Cost of the Health Loss

Illustrative

AHPND

White spot

Yellow Head

HPM Vibriosis

Black GillSoft shell

AHPND

White spot

Yellow HeadHPM Vibriosis

Black GillSoft shell

Developed countries impact exaggerated as individual studies combine to suggest a loss that is greater than the reality



The use of economics in animal health

• Economics is used in animal health to demonstrate the dramatic impact of specific diseases, and to show that strategies to manage and possibly eradicate disease are economically profitable• Therefore the emphasis of the current use of economics is for

advocacy around individual diseases and their control• The focus on individual diseases provides us with only a partial

assessment of the burden of animal diseases• Such partial analysis leaves us vulnerable because it is not sufficient

to support business cases for effective investment in animal health



Juanita Peréz- The problems of a woman livestock keeper living on the margins

She was offered advice on foot-and-mouth disease

Juanita has animal health problems and we assumed we knew what they were (we didn't)



Our current use of economics in animal health leaves us:• Weak in developing strong evidence based investment plans

for animal health systems• Poor in allocating resources to key social, economic and

environmental problems• Limited in evaluating the impact of our ongoing animal

health investments



How we will improve the use of economics in animal health:- Global Burden of Animal Diseases



Building blocks - From population numbers to people- how would this translate to aquaculture?

100 million shrimp

90 millionCorporate Farm

10 millionFamily farms

No ponds10,000 families

1 ponds20,000 families

2-5 ponds5,000 families

>5 ponds1,000 families

Illustrative



Building blocks – animal health loss envelope

Population model

Enterprise Budget NowOutputVariable CostsFixed Costs

Enterprise Budget “Utopia”OutputVariable CostsFixed Costs

Health Loss EnvelopeProduction loss & Expenditure

Difference

Attribution



Building block - attribution

Shrimp system

No attribution

Health loss envelope

No attributionAHPND

WSSV Yellow Head

HPM

No attributionAHPND

WSSV Yellow Head

HPM Vibriosis

Black GillSoft

sh

ell

Illustrative



Health Loss Envelope

Partial Equilibrium

Input-Output Budgeting

EconomicAssessment

Agriculture- Production shocks- Consumer demand- International trade

Regional Non-Agricultural - Tourism- Travel- Lodging & Food

Government- Quarantine- Surveillance- Vaccination- Indemnification- Clean & Disinfect

Total Economic Impacts

Source: adapted from Pendell et al., 2015



Legacy



GBADs timeline

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026-30

GranularityImprovement

BiomassInvestment

Health Loss Envelope

Attribution by causes & risk factors

PrioritisationCentres of Excellence

FundingConsolidation

InformaticsCase studiesEngagementCommunication

Wider Economic Impacts

Code for economic

assessment of animal health


https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/

Metrics to compare regions and sectors- learning lessons from GBD


From crude ad hoc loss estimates

23

Estimated livestock losses by disease measured as LSU/year (data from World Bank, 2011)

1

-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000

100,000

HPA

IEc

hino

cocc

osis

Avia

n in

fect

ious

bro

nchi

tis BTB

LPAI

EBL

New

cast

le d

isea

seBr

ucel

la a

bort

us IBD

CSF

Myc

opla

smos

isSw

ine

vesi

cula

r dis

ease HS

Oth

er c

attle

dise

ases

Bruc

ella

mel

itens

isFM

DPR

RS ASF

Auje

sky'

s dis

ease

Anth

rax

Loss

es (L

SU/y

ear)



To granulatory on the losses by disease, health and accidents- temporal and spatial

https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/



Granularity of impacts by cause and geography

NotifiableDiseases

Endemic Disease

Nutrition, water, injury

Global or regional

NotifiableDiseases

Endemic Disease


National

NotifiableDiseases

Endemic Disease


Sector – species and production system

Illustrative



Providing impact by people affected and type of impact

Types of producer and consumer

Small scaleProducersPr

opor

tion

of in

com

e

Large scaleProducersRural

Consumers

Urban Consumers

Illustrative

Losses in production

Impact type

$

Change in the wider economy

ExpenditureCore

ExpenditureVariable

Costs to the environment



Link between the outputs and investment plans

GBADsMetrics

PVS &Gap Analysis

Investment Plans For Animal Health

Systems

InformationOn Burden

InformationOn Veterinary

Services

Resource Allocation of finance,

personnel and logistics

ApprovedBudget

GBADsMetrics

InformationOn Burden

Animal Health

Systems

Animal Health

Outcomes

GBADsMetrics

PVSMetrics

Evaluation of Investment in Animal Health


People on the margins

Nutrition

Genetics

Parasitic Diseases


Global Burden of Animal Diseases programme will:• Provide information for evidence based investment plans

animal health systems - supporting PVS and Gap Analysis• Allow allocation of resources to key social, economic and

environmental problems - strengthening PVS outcomes• Support high quality evaluation of existing animal health

investments demonstrating the value of animal health systems



Closing questions – I need your feedback please

• Would this approach be of value for aquaculture producers and policy makers?

• What is the true impact of aquatic health issues and how should this be measured?• Can we identify ongoing work on impact and key people or groups to

link with?• Who are the users of the impact assessment and what do they

want/need?


global burden of animal diseases(gbads) · 2019. 12. 19. · •bill and melinda gates foundation...

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