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Permitida a distribuição e reprodução desde que citada a fonte
Prospective Foresight in Brazil: An overview and cases
Claudio PortoCEO Macroplan, Prospectiva, Estratégia & Gestão
MUTUAL LEARNING WORKSHOP ON SCENARIOS CGEE, Brasília (Brazil), 5 December 2012
Claudio Porto
CEO of Macroplan – Prospectiva, Estratégia & Gestão
30 years working on prospective foresight
Macroplan is recognized in the Brazilian marketplace as one of the most
experienced consulting Brazilian companies in prospective studies and strategic
management
Almost 80 prospective studies produced to date
Contents
The evolution of Prospective Foresight in Brazil
Five emblematic cases
1. Scenarios of the Brazilian Economy, BNDES (1984-90)
2. Scenarios about the future of the Amazon Region (ELETRONORTE) (1988, 1998)
3. Introduction and Consolidation of the use of Scenarios in Petrobras (1989, 1992)
4. Scenarios in the State of Minas Gerais (2003-2007)
5. Brazil in transition: current landscape and future trends 2011-2022 (2011)
Summary and conclusions
The Evolution of Prospective Foresight in Brazil -
From the 1970’s to today
Until the 1970’s: embryos (IDESP and IUPERJ)
1980’s: emergence (the precursors)
1990’s: dissemination
2000 to today: generalization in large companies or institutions
The choice of cases
Criteria: the relevance of its impacts, using an elegant application of the
idea of the “Greek Triangle” built by Michel Godet (1991)
THE GREEK TRIANGLE
ANTICIPATION (Reason)
ACTION (Accomplishment)
APPROPRIATION (Desire)
The 1980’s
1980’s - The Brazilian Context
1. External crisis (including the consequences of the oil prices shock in our
economy and default of the Brazilian external debt)
2. Low economic growth (“the lost decade”, average 1.55% /year) and
social crisis (39% of population in poverty in 1989)
3. Hyperinflation (1,973% in 1989)
4. Economy: closed and technologically outdated
5. Politics: transition from a military regimen to democracy.
First CaseBNDES economy scenarios (1984)
» The National Bank for Economic and Social Development – BNDES is currently the main financial institution for long-term investments in all segments of the Brazilian economy. In 2011 the ampount of it’s disbursements was about US$ 70 billion
» 1984: BNDES implemented a strategic planning process that included the use of two macroeconomic scenarios:
ADJUSTMENT SCENARIO (THE “OFFICIAL” VISION)
• Scrolling annual external debt
• Economy: continuity of restrictive policies in accordance with the IMF
ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO
• External debt renegotiation in the long term and with better conditions
• Economic policy: resumption of development
COMPETITIVE INTEGRATION SCENARIO
• Updated industrial structure
• Open and competitive economy
• External debt renegotiation in the long term and with better conditions
• Confidencial
• Information leak
• High repercussion in society
1º
First CaseBNDES economy scenarios (1984) - Impacts
1º
ANTICIPATION
» The possibility of a new cycle of economic growth
APPROPRIATION
» By the elected President of the Republic (1989), supported by a strong
national desire to overcome recession
ACTION AND CONSEQUENCES
» Beginning of the openness of the Brazilian economy
Second Case (Part one)The scenarios of the Amazon Region and electric energy (Eletronorte, 1988)
2º
» ELETRONORTE is a state-owned company
that generates and provides electric power
to the nine states of the Amazon Region
and also provides energy to buyers from
other regions of the country. Total installed
capacity = 9.294,33 megawatts and
transmission systems have over 9.888,02
km of lines.
» Mission: Acting in energy markets in an
integrated, cost-effective and sustainable
way
• AMAZON REGION = 49,29% BRAZIL´S TOTAL AREA
Second Case (Part one)The scenarios of the Amazon Region and electric energy (Eletronorte, 1988)
2º
» Aim: supporting its assessments of demand for electric energy and investment plan.
» Three scenarios of Amazon Region from 1989-2010
» Two important contributions of this study
» introduced the embryo of the sustainable development concept increasing influence in
the company’s decisions
» Introduced the use of scenarios to prospect the market of electrical energy in Brazil
instead of extrapolative forecasts A pioneering initiative that becomes standard in the
electrical sector in the 1990’s.
INTEGRATION WITH THE NATIONAL PROJECT
FOCUS ON ENDOGENOUS DEVELOPMENT
ECOLOGIC AND CULTURAL RESTRICTION
1 2 3
The 1990’s
1990’s - The Brazilian Context
1. Stabilization of the economy after the Real Plan in 1994
2. Continuous opening of the Brazilian economy
3. Privatization in several economic sectors, end of monopolies and
increased competition
4. Modernization of public institutions (remarkable: regulation)
5. Increased soundness of the financial system
6. Consolidation of democracy
Third CaseScenarios of Oil & Gas Industry – (PETROBRAS, 1989, 1992, 1996)
3º
» Petrobras is a publicly traded joint-stock corporation whose main shareholder is the
Government of Brazil. It acts as an energy company in the following sectors:
exploration and production, refinement, marketing and transportation of oil and
natural gas, petrochemicals, distribution of oil, electricity, biofuels and other renewable
energy sources. The company leads the Brazilian oil sector.
» Petrobras Business Plan 2012-2016: investments totaling US$ 236.5 billion (R$ 416,5
billion) - an average of US $ 47,3 billion per year.
» Strategic planning was formally adopted by PETROBRAS in 1989 and based on scenario
analysis.
Third CaseScenarios of Oil & Gas Industry – (PETROBRAS, 1989, 1992)
3º
» A participative process
» The scenarios and strategic Options in 1992 (Strategic Plan 1992-
2001)
PETROBRAS’ SCENARIOS
GLOBAL SCENARIOS AND FOCUS ON OIL INDUSTRY
1. Trans-nationalization - hegemony of big private oil companies
2. Fragmented Cooperation - shared hegemony in the petroleum industry
NATIONAL SCENARIOS AND FOCUS ON OIL INDUSTRY
• Neoliberal
• Permanency of the crisis
• Welfare state
STRATEGIC OPTIONS
• Consolidation and strengthening in the national market
• Expansion of international operations
• Integration, competitiveness and business excellence
Third CaseScenarios of Oil & Gas Industry – (PETROBRAS, 1989, 1992)
3º
ANTICIPATION
» Loss of monopoly and emergence of competition
» Increasing uncertainty and new challenges in the industry
APPROPRIATION
» Assimilation of scenarios and prospective methods by a large portion of the senior management and technical
staff of the company
ACTION AND CONSEQUENCES
» Preparation of the company and its managers and professionals to deal successfully with the end of monopoly,
increasing competition and higher uncertainty
» PETROBRAS developed a skilled decision making process when faced with uncertainties. Today, the
construction of scenarios, which started in the company over 23 years ago, is part of their culture and strategic
management process
» In 1998, ELETRONORTE decided to revisit the 10 years old prospective study
» The prospects of 1989 against the real events of the previous 10 years were evaluated
» Four scenarios were devised for the Amazon Region looking into the following 20 years:
Second Case (Part two)The scenarios of the Amazon Region and electric energy (Eletronorte, 1998)
2º
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT, MODERATE INTEGRATION AND BETTER QUALITY OF LIFE
ECONOMIC GROWTH AT THE EXPENSE OF ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION
1 2
3STAGNATION AND POVERTY
3 4
Second Case (Part two)The scenarios of the Amazon Region and electric energy (Eletronorte, 1988) - Impacts
2º
ANTICIPATION
» A systemic view of the main issues and challenges resulting from the economic
exploitation of the Amazon Region
APPROPRIATON
» Relevant contribution to a gradual formation of a political convergence concerning the
sustainable development of the Amazon Region.
» Recognizing of the potential of economic exploitation of biodiversity
ACTION AND CONSEQUENCES
» The search for new sustainable production standards for the Amazon Region
2000’s to Today
2000’s to Today – The Brazilian Context
1. Prolonged economic stability
2. Overcoming of external restrictions
3. Increasing social inclusion: “Brazil, a medium class country”
4. Increasing insertion of Brazil into global economy
5. Brazil emerges as an attractive land of economic opportunities
6. New challenges and uncertainties facing the future of the country in the medium and long terms
Fourth CaseScenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007)
4º
“To turn Minas Gerais into the best
state to live in”
• Strategic Guidelines
• Projects
Scenarios for Minas Gerais State 2003-2023
I
CONQUEST of a better future
II
WASTE of opportunities
III
OVERCOMING adversities
IV
DECADENCE and impoverishment
Sustained development of domestic economy
Domestic economy with intermittent growth
Brazil
Minas Gerais environment
Creative
Competitive
Inclusive
Minas Gerais environment
Conservative
Inefficient
Excluding
Min
as G
erai
s
• AREA: 586,528 KM² (LARGER THAN FRANCE)
• POPULATION: NEARLY 20 MILLION PEOPLE
• ECONOMY: THIRD AMONG BRAZILIAN STATES
INVESTMENT
&BUSINESSNETWORK CITIES
EQUITY AND
WELFARE
ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABILITY
COMPETITIVE
TERRITORIAL
INTEGRATION
INTEGRATED
PERSPECTIVE OF THE
HUMAN CAPITAL
STATE FOR
RESULTS
Fourth CaseScenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007)
4º
“To turn Minas Gerais into the best
state to live in”
• Strategic Guidelines
• Projects
• AREA: 586,528 KM² (LARGER THAN FRANCE)
• POPULATION: NEARLY 20 MILLION PEOPLE
• ECONOMY: THIRD AMONG BRAZILIAN STATES
INVESTMENT
&BUSINESSNETWORK CITIES
EQUITY AND
WELFARE
ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABILITY
COMPETITIVE
TERRITORIAL
INTEGRATION
INTEGRATED
PERSPECTIVE OF THE
HUMAN CAPITAL
STATE FOR
RESULTS
Scenarios for Minas Gerais State 2003-2023
I
CONQUEST of a better future
II
WASTE of opportunities
III
OVERCOMING adversities
IV
DECADENCE and impoverishment
Sustained development of domestic economy
Domestic economy with intermittent growth
Brazil
Minas Gerais environment
Creative
Competitive
Inclusive
Minas Gerais environment
Conservative
Inefficient
Excluding
Min
as G
erai
s
Scenarios for Minas Gerais State 2003-2023
I
CONQUEST of a better future
II
WASTE of opportunities
III
OVERCOMING adversities
IV
DECADENCE and impoverishment
Sustained development of domestic economy
Domestic economy with intermittent growth
Brazil
Minas Gerais’ environment
Creative
Competitive
Inclusive
Minas Gerais’ environment
Conservative
Inefficient
Excluding
Min
as G
erai
s
Fourth CaseScenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007)
4º
“To turn Minas Gerais into the best
state to live in”
• Strategic Guidelines
• Projects
Scenarios for Minas Gerais State 2003-2023
I
CONQUEST of a better future
II
WASTE of opportunities
III
OVERCOMING adversities
IV
DECADENCE and impoverishment
Sustained development of domestic economy
Domestic economy with intermittent growth
Brazil
Minas Gerais environment
Creative
Competitive
Inclusive
Minas Gerais environment
Conservative
Inefficient
Excluding
Min
as G
erai
s
• AREA: 586,528 KM² (LARGER THAN FRANCE)
• POPULATION: NEARLY 20 MILLION PEOPLE
• ECONOMY: THIRD AMONG BRAZILIAN STATES
INVESTMENT
&BUSINESSNETWORK CITIES
EQUITY AND
WELFARE
ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABILITY
COMPETITIVE
TERRITORIAL
INTEGRATION
INTEGRATED
PERSPECTIVE OF THE
HUMAN CAPITAL
STATE FOR
RESULTS
INVESTMENT &BUSINESS
NETWORK CITIES
EQUITY AND WELFARE
ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
COMPETITIVE TERRITORIAL INTEGRATION
INTEGRATED PERSPECTIVE OF
THE HUMAN CAPITAL
STATE FOR RESULTS
Fourth CaseScenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007)
4º
• Strategic Guidelines
• Projects
Scenarios for Minas Gerais State 2003-2023
I
CONQUEST of a better future
II
WASTE of opportunities
III
OVERCOMING adversities
IV
DECADENCE and impoverishment
Sustained development of domestic economy
Domestic economy with intermittent growth
Brazil
Minas Gerais environment
Creative
Competitive
Inclusive
Minas Gerais environment
Conservative
Inefficient
Excluding
Min
as G
erai
s
• AREA: 586,528 KM² (LARGER THAN FRANCE)
• POPULATION: NEARLY 20 MILLION PEOPLE
• ECONOMY: THIRD AMONG BRAZILIAN STATES
INVESTMENT
&BUSINESSNETWORK CITIES
EQUITY AND
WELFARE
ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABILITY
COMPETITIVE
TERRITORIAL
INTEGRATION
INTEGRATED
PERSPECTIVE OF THE
HUMAN CAPITAL
STATE FOR
RESULTS
“To turn Minas Gerais into the best
state to live in”
AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FOUR SCENARIOS, THE FIRST ONE
OF THEM WAS CHOSEN AS A REFERENCE FOR THE CREATION OF THE
VISION OF THE FUTURE FOR MINAS GERAIS OVER A PERIOD OF 20
YEARS:
“TO TURN MINAS GERAIS INTO THE BEST STATE TO LIVE IN”
Fourth CaseScenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007)
4º
“To turn Minas Gerais into the best
state to live in”
Scenarios for Minas Gerais State 2003-2023
I
CONQUEST of a better future
II
WASTE of opportunities
III
OVERCOMING adversities
IV
DECADENCE and impoverishment
Sustained development of domestic economy
Domestic economy with intermittent growth
Brazil
Minas Gerais environment
Creative
Competitive
Inclusive
Minas Gerais environment
Conservative
Inefficient
Excluding
Min
as G
erai
s
• AREA: 586,528 KM² (LARGER THAN FRANCE)
• POPULATION: NEARLY 20 MILLION PEOPLE
• ECONOMY: THIRD AMONG BRAZILIAN STATES
INVESTMENT
&BUSINESSNETWORK CITIES
EQUITY AND
WELFARE
ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABILITY
COMPETITIVE
TERRITORIAL
INTEGRATION
INTEGRATED
PERSPECTIVE OF THE
HUMAN CAPITAL
STATE FOR
RESULTS
• Strategic Guidelines
• Projects
THE VISION WAS THEN SPLIT INTO:
• STRATEGIC GUIDELINES
• PORTFOLIO OF STRUCTURING AND LEVERAGING PROJECTS
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STATE
Fourth CaseScenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007)
4º
ANTICIPATION
» The threat of losing many opportunities unless making severe adjustments in the state and its
government
APPROPRIATION
» Choice of strategies aligned with the scenarios
» Realization of the urgent need for modernization of the state government toward higher
efficiency
ACTION AND CONSEQUENCES
» Public policies aligned with the scenarios
» “The shock of management” in state government
Summary and Conclusions
BNDES (1984)
ELETRONORTE (1988, 1998)
PETROBRAS (1989, 1992, 1996)
MINAS GERAIS (2003-2023)
Anticipation
The possibility of a new cycle of economic growth
The anticipation of political, economic, and environmental issues resulting from the economic exploitation of the Amazon Region
Loss of monopoly and emergence of competition
Increasing uncertainty
The threat of losing many opportunities unless making severe adjustments in the state and its government
Appropriation
By the elected President (1989)
A strong national desire to overcome recession
Contribution to a gradual formation of a political convergence concerning Amazon region’s biggest challenge.
The potential of economic exploitation of biodiversity
Assimilation of prospective methods by a large portion of the senior management and technical staff of the company
Choice of strategies aligned with the scenarios
Realization of the urgent need for modernization of the state government toward higher efficiency
Action
The beginning of the openness of the Brazilian economy
The search for new production standards on sustainable base
Preparation of managers and professionals to deal successfully with the end of monopoly, competition and higher uncertainty
Public policies aligned with the scenarios
“The shock of management” in state government
Conclusions
The use and dissemination of prospective foresight in Brazil made significant progress during the last 30 years.
Unfortunately, we are still missing a long term prospective and strategic view for the country. We – society, state, companies – are excessively focused on short term tactic questions.
However, there has been an increasing demand for a long term view from new leaderships. Our current development stage itself requires such view.
I am, therefore, optimistic: this is likely the decade when Brazil – as a nation and a society – will pursue and build a long term vision of development.
And all of us, with the methods and tools of prospective foresight , will be able to make relevant contributions to this project.
Thank you. cporto@macroplan.com.br
References
Remarkable Prospective Projects
supported by Macroplan
1. Cenários do ambiente de atuação das micro e pequenas empresas do Rio de Janeiro 2012-2013 (2012)
2. Análise de tendências de longo prazo e elaboração do Plano Mineiro de Desenvolvimento Integrado horizonte 2030 (2011)
3. Quatro cenários da cidade de Belo Horizonte 2010-2030 (2009)
4. Cenários do Ambiente de Atuação do do Sistema Eletrobras 2020 (2010)
5. Quatro Cenários Econômicos para o Brasil 2008-2014 6. Cenários Exploratórios do Rio de Janeiro no Horizonte
2007-2027 (2007)7. Cenários Exploratórios de Minas Gerais no Horizonte
2007-2023 (2007)8. Cenários do ambiente de atuação das organizações
públicas de PD&I do Agronegócio no Horizonte 2023 (Embrapa, 2007)
9. Três Cenários para o Desenvolvimento do Estado do Espírito Santo (2006)
10. “O Ensino Superior no Mundo e no Brasil – Condicionantes, Tendências e Cenários para o Horizonte 2003-2025” (2003)
11. Cenários de Desenvolvimento para a elaboração do Plano Estratégico do Sistema Petrobras – 2004-2015 (2003 – 2004)
12. Construção de Cenários para o Setor Energético e o segmento de Óleo e Gás 2002-2010 e elaboração da Visão de Futuro do Projeto Tendências Tecnológicas para o CTPETRO – Fundo Setorial do Petróleo (Mar-Jul, 2002).
13. Atualização dos Cenários Sócio-Econômicos e Energéticos da Amazônia para o Horizonte 1998/2020 - ELETRONORTE (Out, 2000 - Abril, 2001)
14. Elaboração dos cenários focalizados no mercado de distribuição de combustíveis no Brasil – horizonte 2002/2006 (2001)
15. Mapeamento das Incertezas e Construção dos Cenários do Mercado de Energia Elétrica – Horizonte 2001-2011 ( 2001).
16. Cenários da Educação a Distância no Brasil – Horizonte 2010; como etapa integrante do processo de planejamento estratégico do desenvolvimento da Educação à Distância do SENAC São Paulo para o horizonte 2000-2005 (Fev-Abril 2000)
17. Cenários do setor de Telecomunicações no Brasil no Horizonte 1996/2010 para a EMBRATEL (1996)
18. Consultoria metodológica à Secretaria de Assuntos Estratégicos da Presidência da República na construção de Cenários Exploratórios do Brasil no Horizonte 2020 (Jan - Jun, 1996)
19. Consultoria à elaboração de análise prospectiva e Cenários de Educação Profissional e do ambiente de atuação do SENAI – Horizonte 1995-2010 ( 1995)
20. Cenários para o Mato Grosso do Sul no horizonte 1995-2010 (Mar-Set, 1995)
Bibliography
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