oportunidades para a produção de leite no brasil para producao... · produção de leite sob...

Oportunidades para a Produo de Leite no Brasil

Rodrigo Sant`Anna AlvimPresidente da Comisso Nacional

de Pecuria de Leite da CNA

Cuiab, 08 de maio de 2006

Oportunidades para a Produo de Leite no Brasil

Cuiab, 08 de maio de 2006

Rodrigo Sant`Anna Alvim

Presidente da Comisso Nacional

de Pecuria de Leite da CNA

Apresentao

Cenrio atual;

Potencial de crescimento da produo;

Desafios ao aumento da competitividade:

Mercado interno;

Mercado internacional;

Propostas de Polticas para o Setor;

Cenrio Atual

Produo de Leite sob inspeo

(ms a ms)

Fonte: IBGE

2005/04 Crescimento de 11,87%

Brasil

Produo de Leite Sob Inspeo no Brasil

(Mil litros)

Ano199719981999200020012002200320042005Var. %Var. %Var. %Var. %Var. %

Ms2001/20002002/20012003/20022003/20042004/2005

Jan958,1431,030,3201,028,9561,083,7101,193,4071,195,8661,275,4571,294,2091,436,93810.12%0.21%6.66%1.47%11.03%

Fev825,195881,126893,2821,001,4751,008,1551,047,9831,103,4511,165,9301,248,3940.67%3.95%5.29%5.66%7.07%3,618,315

Mar863,303905,385940,534988,1881,060,5501,078,6191,141,9711,158,1761,279,6897.32%1.70%5.87%1.42%10.49%9.58%3,965,021

Abr801,042820,389874,957899,8571,004,6221,060,8081,057,0161,070,2701,257,14711.64%5.59%-0.36%1.25%17.46%

Mai809,520832,587879,926901,8611,014,8581,063,7121,048,2041,110,9641,290,51612.53%4.81%-1.46%5.99%16.16%3,284,771

Jun789,274825,582847,894861,0981,049,4351,039,8751,035,4381,103,5371,305,49021.87%-0.91%-0.43%6.58%18.30%17.3%3,853,153

Jul880,115869,001909,341918,2721,107,7551,064,1541,077,4771,183,94520.63%-3.94%1.25%9.88%

Ago874,358916,544922,791968,7941,117,5041,100,0781,098,9791,185,05115.35%-1.56%-0.10%7.83%

Set857,648924,670898,4721,024,0311,102,8501,058,9131,078,3751,182,1427.70%-3.98%1.84%9.62%

Out983,480969,400935,4731,123,0151,169,0421,117,0721,171,3171,256,0874.10%-4.45%4.86%7.24%

Nov998,307994,168965,1511,132,0151,176,9271,146,8841,218,4051,348,9353.97%-2.55%6.24%10.71%

Dez1,047,8941,026,2011,042,1531,205,4251,207,6051,248,2521,331,2801,443,3200.18%3.37%6.65%8.42%

Total 10 Semestre5,046,4775,295,3895,465,5495,736,1896,331,02710.37%-100.00%0.00%

Total 1 Semestre6,331,0276,486,8636,661,5376,903,0867,818,1742.46%2.69%3.63%13.26%

Total anual10,688,27910,995,37311,138,93012,107,74113,212,71013,222,21613,637,37014,502,5669.13%0.07%3.14%6.34%

Total Geral18,666,01018,693,91419,070,04819,767,20620,509,95321,643,740

Diferena7,977,7317,698,5417,931,1187,659,4657,297,2438,421,524

% leite formal57%59%58%61%64%61%

Fonte: IBGE - Pesquisa Trimestral do Leite - Resultados Mensais

Grf1

1.2767541.2943951.440958

1.0984931.1658891.251277

1.1362181.1588931.281981

1.0564081.07051.263925

1.0480791.1111981.297287

1.035421.1008331.313438

1.0774771.1830611.357299

1.0989791.1845321.362022

1.0783751.1816511.333198

1.1713171.2465311.417272

1.2184051.3449611.427508

1.331281.4523531.4693

&A

Page &P

2003

2004

2005

(biles de litros)

Plan2

20012002200320042005200320042005

jan1,193,4071,195,5371,276,7541,294,3951,440,958jan1.31.31.4

fev1,008,1551,047,6971,098,4931,165,8891,251,277fev1.11.21.3

mar1,060,5501,078,3251,136,2181,158,8931,281,981mar1.11.21.3

abr1,004,6221,060,8081,056,4081,070,5001,263,925abr1.11.11.3

mai1,014,8581,063,7121,048,0791,111,1981,297,287mai1.01.11.3

jun1,049,4351,039,8751,035,4201,100,8331,313,438jun1.01.11.3

jul1,107,7551,064,1541,077,4771,183,0611,357,299jul1.11.21.4

ago1,117,5041,100,0781,098,9791,184,5321,362,022ago1.11.21.4

set1,102,8501,058,9131,078,3751,181,6511,333,198set1.11.21.3

out1,169,0421,117,0721,171,3171,246,5311,417,272out1.21.21.4

nov1,176,9271,146,8841,218,4051,344,9611,427,508nov1.21.31.4

dez1,207,6051,248,2521,331,2801,452,3531,469,300dez1.31.51.5

PTL 2004.05

Tabela 599 - Quantidade de leite cru ou resfriado adquirido

Varivel = Quantidade de Leite Cru ou Resfriado Adquirido (Mil litros)

Brasil e Unidade da Federao

Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04Sep-04jan/set 2004Jan-05Feb-05Mar-05Apr-05May-05Jun-05Jul-05Aug-05Sep-05Jan/set 2005Variao

Brasil1,294,2091,165,9301,158,1761,070,2701,110,9641,103,5371,183,9451,185,0511,182,14210,454,2241,440,8241,251,1811,281,9621,262,6301,296,2841,312,3841,356,0471,360,4311,331,88611,893,62913.77%

Rondnia50,07341,17536,55635,65941,40041,86643,68439,19642,830372,43956,53046,58145,41144,42147,55946,04537,18337,94937,643399,3227.22%

Acre9307786986477438641,0121,0201,0697,7619657697606927428831,0887897147,402-4.63%

Amazonas504851525352555144456321933333129312834270-40.79%

Roraima353638323032313030294161032384130---167-43.20%

Par17,07213,73313,53613,83614,95118,20318,25317,58818,710145,88219,63717,35717,10816,93518,54220,29917,28615,86814,559157,5918.03%

Tocantins7,4886,3205,7905,7375,7526,2776,2785,2985,82054,7608,0057,4526,8487,1157,4127,7037,0045,7964,28261,61712.52%

Norte581,592626,3697.70%

Maranho4,0153,6363,5793,4254,1203,9843,8873,6443,79834,0884,1553,9284,3964,1004,2144,1153,8992,9782,78034,5651.40%

Piau1,1031,1041,3611,2161,2681,3011,3191,2611,37911,3121,3141,2621,2331,3081,3031,4461,4961,6161,59512,57311.15%

Cear4,9315,8046,8736,0456,7337,5728,0358,1148,01362,1209,3658,6368,5619,99011,1129,1739,64010,00510,50286,98440.03%

Rio Grande do Norte5,6865,9416,4186,3316,6086,2316,3836,3626,31856,2786,7656,2406,7486,4176,2786,2356,2886,4726,28757,7302.58%

Paraba1,9162,2212,5442,6732,7462,7202,9643,0313,02423,8393,1923,0253,3123,3673,4143,2403,5263,7133,58630,37527.42%

Pernambuco5,8744,8605,9025,1385,8296,5898,6227,8907,30058,00411,02310,08411,07411,28811,64610,89511,61110,4399,95098,01068.97%

Alagoas8,6839,8249,1798,0297,9389,19310,0448,9667,93879,79410,34710,02610,21810,68310,69610,70110,76210,1559,34492,93216.46%

Sergipe1,8971,7511,8192,6232,9043,2313,3483,0222,90623,5014,6114,6074,5685,3595,9805,9066,1135,7235,51548,382105.87%

Bahia23,07422,42924,36819,69317,68216,81217,89315,76314,280171,99426,19526,57226,25625,66426,00125,37028,39127,50626,754238,70938.79%

Nordeste520,930700,26034.42%

Minas Gerais382,635350,040343,317311,496316,781313,062335,315318,558327,2772,998,481430,511369,708376,152357,017357,889380,448400,744386,061381,7423,440,27214.73%

Esprito Santo19,94918,43718,98818,27118,27217,10417,83016,75117,428163,03021,99819,53719,39418,43319,48419,51220,30820,44220,180179,2889.97%

Rio de Janeiro33,56626,51928,07826,07927,01526,61629,30729,48730,058256,72538,10230,39731,12130,46932,72933,55434,24737,40836,489304,51618.62%

So Paulo208,155192,142202,123194,264199,743191,062194,225201,591190,3911,773,696214,825179,901184,327185,439198,574185,579187,089196,157191,8631,723,754-2.82%

Sudeste5,191,9325,647,8308.78%

Paran103,90598,51497,46692,35290,20790,237104,817112,566105,818895,882115,260100,845108,293105,473110,077117,480119,720124,519118,2081,019,87513.84%

Santa Catarina56,81249,74248,35746,56949,42653,27256,88162,90663,942487,90766,16260,01259,75258,47160,51662,81468,54673,92673,036583,23519.54%

Rio Grande do Sul143,203123,507112,61298,254108,459124,680148,285169,524170,7701,199,294152,499136,399139,271138,357149,904158,757175,201189,313181,9341,421,63518.54%

Sul2,583,0833,024,74517.10%

Mato Grosso do Sul22,79718,95120,02818,21817,81816,03315,30514,57212,352156,07421,65320,60719,81219,56019,99419,35417,62316,64614,153169,4028.54%

Mato Grosso26,40823,14723,53021,40521,98220,43421,37920,48220,292199,05930,42726,37326,42727,58828,56327,32624,83320,94419,485231,96616.53%

Gois163,126144,452144,035131,370141,644125,260127,819116,387119,4151,213,508186,082159,810169,669173,175162,357154,122162,082154,504159,8391,481,64022.10%

Distrito Federal8258199308548628509759889378,0401,1531,0261,1881,2361,2261,3691,3351,4731,41311,41942.03%

Centro Oeste1,576,6811,894,42720.15%

Fonte: IBGE - Pesquisa Trimestral do Leite - Resultados Mensais

Produo de leite sob inspeo

(milhes de litros)

Fonte: IBGE

NORTE

Produo 2005: 823,3

Cresc. 2005/04: - 0,9%

SUL

Produo 2005: 4.172,4

Cresc. 2005/04: 16,5%

CENTRO-OESTE

Produo 2005: 2.610,1

Cresc. 2005/04: 18,1%

SUDESTE

Produo 2005: 7.665,5

Cresc. 2005/04: 6,9%

NORDESTE

Produo 2005: 944,2

Cresc. 2005/04: 33,7%

BRASIL

Produo 2005: 16.215,5

Cresc. 2005/04: 11,9%

Crescimento de 1,7 bilho de

litros em relao a 2004

MATO GROSSO

Produo 2005: 318,7

Cresc. 2005/04: 14,6%

Balana Comercial do Agronegcio Leite

Fonte: Sistema Alice

Elaborao: CNA/Decon

Saldo

Exportaes

Importaes

Graf. Balana Mensal

0.4681683652638.500991

0.6586173655735.672

1.3064873658627.313

0.8783043661723.216

0.954243664724.625

1.5750913667828.856

0.9745483670836.783

1.0845313673937.986359

0.9284223677035.578914

1.3836353680029.90678

1.2476853683130.404

1.901153686124.257

1.2149133689224.457396

0.735333692320.686032

0.8736663695116.62927

0.9690023698213.085008

1.8507223701216.59235

1.3036693704321.003094

1.7392463707317.612278

2.3896383710411.657892

4.105433713511.999636

3.572143371659.881044

3.118548371967.759632

3.157686372266.091949

8.2365833725714.406342

2.2089853728817.497244

2.6766783731617.721609

1.7984523734721.314434

2.0109093737725.421741

2.8355283740824.62791

3.9403233743832.25667

3.1950353746921.095076

2.8212423750016.159237

2.4498693753014.724022

6.0683893756121.453382

1.9588983759120.879696

2.5401593762212.93504

3.43731376539.680962

1.6882223768115.435177

1.335214377126.360388

2.5492343774210.119282

2.320697377736.266079

5.428262378036.455342

4.804029378346.357216

3.9069553786511.413593

5.8927023789510.630476

10.578955379268.932862

4.026252379567.705173

3.210565379877.56457

2.466539380183.713918

6.144762380475.323231

4.7380785.4

7.3381088.3

5.8381396.7

12.2381698.9

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Fonte: Sistema AliceElaborao: CNA/Decon

Exportao

Importao

Importao

Balana Comercial de Lcteos

Balana Mensal

ExportaoImportaoImportaoSaldo

Jan-004681680.538,500,99138.5-38.0

Feb-006586170.735,672,00035.7-35.0

Mar-0013064871.327,313,00027.3-26.0

Apr-008783040.923,216,00023.2-22.3

May-009542401.024,625,00024.6-23.7

2000Jun-0015750911.628,856,00028.9-27.3

Jul-009745481.036,783,00036.8-35.8

Aug-0010845311.137,986,35938.0-36.9

Sep-009284220.935,578,91435.6-34.7

Oct-0013836351.429,906,78029.9-28.5

Nov-0012476851.230,404,00030.4-29.2

Dec-0019011501.924,257,00024.3-22.4

Jan-0112149131.224,457,39624.5-23.2

Feb-017353300.720,686,03220.7-20.0

Mar-018736660.916,629,27016.6-15.8

Apr-019690021.013,085,00813.1-12.1

May-0118507221.916,592,35016.6-14.7

2001Jun-0113036691.321,003,09421.0-19.7

Jul-0117392461.717,612,27817.6-15.9

Aug-0123896382.411,657,89211.7-9.3

Sep-0141054304.111,999,63612.0-7.9

Oct-0135721433.69,881,0449.9-6.3

Nov-0131185483.17,759,6327.8-4.6

Dec-0131576863.26,091,9496.1-2.9

Jan-0282365838.214,406,34214.4-6.2

Feb-0222089852.217,497,24417.5-15.3

Mar-0226766782.717,721,60917.7-15.0

Apr-0217984521.821,314,43421.3-19.5

May-0220109092.025,421,74125.4-23.4

2002Jun-0228355282.824,627,91024.6-21.8

Jul-0239403233.932,256,67032.3-28.3

Aug-0231950353.221,095,07621.1-17.9

Sep-0228212422.816,159,23716.2-13.3

Oct-0224498692.414,724,02214.7-12.3

Nov-0260683896.121,453,38221.5-15.4

Dec-0219588982.020,879,69620.9-18.9

Jan-0325401592.512,935,04012.9-10.4

Feb-0334373103.49,680,9629.7-6.2

Mar-0316882221.715,435,17715.4-13.7

Apr-0313352141.36,360,3886.4-5.0

May-0325492342.510,119,28210.1-7.6

2003Jun-0323206972.36,266,0796.3-3.9

Jul-0354282625.46,455,3426.5-1.0

Aug-0348040294.86,357,2166.4-1.6

Sep-0339069553.911,413,59311.4-7.5

Oct-0358927025.910,630,47610.6-4.7

Nov-031057895510.68,932,8628.91.6

Dec-0340262524.07,705,1737.7-3.7

Jan-0432105653.27,564,5707.6-4.4

Feb-0424665392.53,713,9183.7-1.2

Mar-0461447626.15,323,2315.30.8

2004Apr-044.75.4-0.7

May-047.38.3-1.0

Jun-045.86.7-0.9

Jul-0412.28.93.3

Aug-047.68.3-0.7

Grf1

456.69.409-447.191

511.6778.105-503.572

439.9487.52-432.428

373.09913.36-359.739

177.45525.029-152.426

247.55740.2-207.357

112.29148.507-63.784

83.995.411.5

121.2130.18.9

Importaes

Exportaes

Saldo

Valor FOB (mil US$)

Balana anual

Ms

Valor FOB (mil US$)

1,9971,9981,999200020012002200320042005

Importaes456.6511.7439.9373.1177.5247.6112.383.9121.2

Exportaes9.48.17.513.425.040.248.595.4130.1

Saldo-447.2-503.6-432.4-359.7-152.4-207.4-63.811.58.9

IMP (MS A MS)

Importao de Produtos Lcteos por NCM

janeiro a dezembro

NCM: 0401 (Leite uht)

MsValor FOB (US$)Peso Lquido (Kg)

1997199819992000200120022003200419971998199920002001200220032004

Janeiro3,521,9863,433,4463,203,0002,029,5711,701,0726,70733,61621,1247,939,1328,613,1229,278,0008,050,5015,729,94724,030136,11938,953

Fevereiro3,283,9083,025,3402,352,0002,398,0001,362,46979,4781,1991,5717,718,3298,331,4516,825,0009,712,0005,198,639307,4044045

Maro2,896,2984,255,0431,890,0002,041,000934,827143,54425,713111,0067,112,1669,385,1346,347,0008,143,0003,519,266553,335105,928382065

Abril4,940,3126,360,4722,591,0001,460,0001,252,059971,728146,46611,156,95813,413,5889,255,0005,656,0004,208,0543,817,170620,968

Maio6,054,8106,963,8383,343,1582,895,0001,455,501809,69571,42512,332,03214,588,33811,096,16710,133,0005,120,5143,231,467274,682

Junho6,070,2327,951,4794,008,2853,270,0001,672,546927,13342,43511,751,30616,417,78912,728,84311,417,0006,159,5414,086,327147,242

Julho8,811,6236,245,6824,337,9523,422,000710,3881,325,66023,74719,287,68812,851,40713,868,77511,609,0002,263,9245,721,44874,947

Agosto6,016,5815,426,0943,877,4133,165,226477,731826,3331,15512,186,84911,553,61412,580,1579,567,9121,324,9413,971,31043

Setembro5,028,7645,010,8153,175,2382,352,375654,629414,1456,48010,755,09111,827,29911,034,0526,193,5762,795,0981,703,47521,600

Outubro4,756,1783,646,2082,492,9412,727,719585,133433,95942,56810,821,3119,699,4179,216,5667,082,2542,729,7422,492,95896,303

Novembro4,152,8993,848,8703,060,2241,641,000611136,3598,5919,907,79310,679,35211,864,7144,494,000630699,34853,603

Dezembro1,394,0123,862,0772,900,4431,177,00018,310191,833105,5292,055,94811,080,20611,400,4063,865,00072,660951,383399,883

TOTAL56,927,60360,029,36437,231,65428,578,89110,825,2766,266,574508,924133,701123,024,603138,440,717125,494,68095,923,24339,122,95627,559,6551,931,358421,063

6,805,8946,458,7865,555,00060,528133,70122,769,62726,329,70722,450,000242,087421,063

NCM: 0402 (Leite em p)


1,9971,9981,9992000200120022003200419971998199920002001200220032004

Janeiro21,988,58221,353,18425,377,00029,114,02815,927,58811,450,0638,400,3925,670,85712,936,54211,439,72614,425,91819,039,1438,172,7486,017,9015,221,3102,961,619

Fevereiro15,551,41816,686,08517,242,00026,103,00015,254,45014,308,5067,021,8532,108,0247,185,5018,664,37210,170,12716,012,0007,476,5728,023,3804,131,3231,043,426

Maro19,933,73430,987,97715,830,60118,091,00010,934,50412,893,22812,328,7262,783,7169,364,62416,228,885-14,402,35410,852,0005,335,3537,557,6136,846,6801419737

Abril33,557,06133,979,09722,465,00013,510,0008,533,20212,882,1413,178,5811,646,59117,302,53513,258,0007,533,0004,024,3687,794,7601,738,881

Maio29,176,09927,246,54533,773,83213,565,0008,740,98717,353,1356,397,74115,531,99713,713,35620,886,9107,403,0004,046,75910,977,7663,427,270

Junho26,227,22630,462,02225,421,99117,477,00013,867,11015,794,4503,470,92712,372,27916,036,41914,854,4549,079,0006,745,75610,769,8791,830,446

Julho34,101,5864,778,55729,443,34624,775,00011,568,29420,405,5853,924,48016,633,39328,995,76918,560,23912,363,0005,541,88413,677,8172,077,940

Agosto25,027,11524,337,39728,422,80926,584,9045,733,03814,524,6463,761,93412,423,7341,282,44117,023,35213,662,0332,658,67110,130,5001,937,690

Setembro2,415,8612,172,83221,085,00027,396,3957,124,90111,103,3487,319,42412,272,85311,205,69612,847,51813,616,7113,458,4027,677,5303,812,500

Outubro28,277,43621,406,92426,242,01320,812,3205,298,89811,580,5106,282,04914,487,272108,7891,679,38810,099,7562,505,5778,202,3673,281,591

Novembro18,562,42121,239,64629,974,08522,783,0003,498,68617,808,0005,542,3629,586,66812,071,90520,457,06811,096,0001,580,36912,697,8772,918,430

Dezembro13,401,58430,297,11137,591,90716,711,0004,165,97715,552,3204,185,2386,840,06317,552,99924,930,4058,276,0002,019,50110,316,4102,177,537

TOTAL268,220,123264,947,377312,869,584256,922,647110,647,635175,655,93271,813,70710,562,597131,281,517154,602,892154,691,025139,031,64353,565,960113,843,80039,401,5985,424,782

37,540,00038,039,26942,619,00027,750,97110,562,59729,486,66736,332,98310,193,69116,199,3135,424,782

NCM: 0403 (Iogurte)


1,9971,9981,9992000200120022003200419971998199920002001200220032004

Janeiro215,011285,02291,54656,27371,902114,7341,789,44067,568305,43263,51578,7252,88629,44347,8093,580,65036,000

Fevereiro13,26658,238110,397050,80134,358304,8600174,53130,95181,600037,42933,176529,0270

Maro33,312133,692057,00020,540295,478990,252100,21648,368100,267028,00029,814522,0001,971,00060,900

Abril673,487129,97635,27992,00067,2001,676,500351,227476,707124,71113,48074,00038,7653,106,800558,000

Maio82,514436,585048,000121,393174,11524,26074,052329,883026,00062,107153,10018,302

Junho11,949142,25568,725114,0006,302954,353098,62374,01439,52984,0003,0001,671,3760

Julho256,533591,30442,17542,00057,8731,451,96229,377205,291777,67131,50021,00025,7002,594,57515,725

Agosto251,32314,37754,01130,21091,2431,898,2660113,94459,4853,61518,25038,5223,571,0030

Setembro85,355136,838105,07259,28045,38549,24333,78368,35379,12552,66942,6901,91725,04318,000

Outubro11,9138,02542,50324,43417,989139,96567,56865,2345,61731510,9607,094256,61536,000

Novembro9,478218,706104,42647,00019,91230,199102,20638,269196,778104,302258,23318,00061,200

Dezembro10,461130,99240,195123,00052,4241,698,5150126,16298,47116,70056,00050,4423,265,6410

TOTAL1,654,6022,286,010694,329693,197622,9648,517,6883,692,973167,7841,794,9661,940,488422,435363,811332,46615,265,1386,787,90496,900

228,277343,260201,9433,084,552167,784528,331194,733160,3256,080,67796,900

NCM: 0404 (Soro de Leite)


1,9971,9981,9992000200120022003200419971998199920002001200220032004

Janeiro482,6841,514,9781,634,0001,364,2133,841,9831,686,673875,803949,956787,0001,597,9531,765,0001,801,3885,215,8882,169,8661,116,1801,453,500

Fevereiro249,013761,9441,177,0002,415,0001,588,8031,673,642892,162782,913340,1851,042,4731,418,4633,514,0001,510,2432,145,3211,023,1041,034,745

Maro733,2472,352,3812,281,0002,408,0001,869,2332,525,437880,7391,158,2771,000,8352,977,9312,891,0003,868,0002,213,4663,202,096985,7701811820

Abril1,199,3892,926,9351,897,0002,450,0001,397,6942,848,918935,2221,319,7134,003,1092,359,0003,309,0002,143,2994,331,8351,684,000

Maio672,7983,349,0242,072,0742,826,0002,705,6003,397,4031,984,586935,6154,392,5542,813,4364,275,0002,803,9405,534,6963,796,450

Junho712,7892,603,6852,474,3742,427,0002,984,9932,270,5151,355,663853,4522,850,5333,307,5723,893,0004,134,7414,038,3452,374,425

Julho1,188,0392,698,1741,821,9802,563,0002,775,1233,350,4581,323,1471,580,9313,535,9493,199,5613,927,0003,854,8805,396,8741,851,805

Agosto1,559,164267,3121,435,8372,397,4823,279,2591,374,8691,161,9611,338,542349,4832,315,5002,987,3034,797,5631,669,3802,131,100

Setembro1,189,6212,617,3892,105,1161,646,9192,873,8241,665,4321,733,4811,453,2573,031,367368,1792,780,8342,912,3192,119,2332,146,920

Outubro1,018,1971,649,3221,600,0442,994,9182,145,9471,023,9212,250,0531,269,2311,603,4322,137,3354,973,7382,614,2271,433,0903,364,600

Novembro131,0691,079,9891,261,4882,384,0002,616,7491,674,8401,712,2441,691,1551,313,1811,627,5684,171,0003,149,2222,513,0102,802,400

Dezembro543,4781,458,8132,296,1192,664,0001,543,5031,412,1112,178,90264,3821,651,5882,953,4153,628,0002,097,6122,077,2202,660,080

TOTAL9,679,48823,279,94622,056,03228,540,53229,622,71124,904,21917,283,9632,891,14612,634,29828,349,55327,156,02943,128,26337,447,40036,630,96625,936,8344,300,065

731,6972,276,9222,811,0002,648,7042,891,1462,128,0205,618,3576,074,4633,125,0544,300,065

NCM: 0405 (Manteiga)


1,9971,9981,9992000200120022003200419971998199920002001200220032004

Janeiro547,309772,8742,851,0003,177,547522,098131,328716,32675,89128,828380,7751,442,0002,175,466335,48791,760590,13148,456

Fevereiro884,2291,654,787860,0002,010,000450,204631,494768,96263,256503,64183,713434,0001,433,000301,487587,265547,01636,869

Maro1,615,437134,6071,245,0001,549,000756,302309,385525,168292,737886,297623,197619,000954,000493,035294,948370,621152394

Abril2,741,9061,886,4011,759,0002,988,000498,4221,495,942791,5291,730,798864,7061,082,0001,940,000346,0321,374,646519,970

Maio666,9983,304,1752,399,808850,000207,9961,817,742439,225354,6321,863,4161,484,519556,000109,8342,127,613446,140

Junho1,509,1052,585,5171,419,9131,812,000231,3761,263,506123,130874,9681,329,884765,8721,190,00096,6811,240,992110,473

Julho1,381,4055,325,7123,199,2801,813,000313,6442,409,296129,4767,8213,083,7122,153,9411,058,000181,4102,712,24680,191

Agosto369,0113,527,6461,538,5661,358,658304,025434,797177,364189,90721,284892,325808,812135,000398,907110,150

Setembro911,6851,110,3751,175,9191,215,888198,471834,070202,515567,121550,688739,729718,89211,813834,643135,201

Outubro64,422962,1242,012,525786,842241,549328,341221,29539,846519,5021,384,546499,532172,331327,736132,558

Novembro375,951109,0171,836,1591,161,000324,342648,508218,245212,017537,5141,351,976764,000251,500703,592135,235

Dezembro353,1852,134,3572,103,3891,113,000183,906531,084534,999207,1641,092,4051,468745,000133,485583,204331,888

TOTAL11,420,64323,507,59222,400,55919,834,9354,232,33510,835,4934,848,234431,8845,603,04010,950,79612,351,37612,842,7022,568,09511,277,5523,509,574237,719

1,431,5382,427,6613,711,0002,010,456431,8841,418,7661,087,6852,495,0001,507,768237,719

NCM: 0406 (Queijos)


1,9971,9981,9992000200120022003200419971998199920002001200220032004

Janeiro4,449,1194,348,8144,960,0002,759,3592,392,7531,016,8371,119,463779,1741,334,7841,459,6861,942,0001,373,649892,703334,838561,392276,509

Fevereiro6,020,2102,493,9291,800,0002,746,0001,979,305769,766691,926758,1542,150,773843,874585,0001,246,000787,432265,954306,043251,463

Maro7,786,6673,644,8643,006,0003,167,0002,113,8641,554,537684,579877,2792,688,2781,154,3681,425,0001,323,000728,517625,110313,138307659

Abril7,560,9084,955,7482,689,0002,716,0001,336,4311,439,205957,3632,584,763151,3541,121,0001,053,000443,293615,368382,206

Maio10,106,1736,758,8723,574,4054,441,0003,360,8731,869,6511,202,0453,388,3262,082,9621,513,3321,841,0001,323,126866,408494,223

Junho9,693,2828,747,0315,465,0113,756,0002,240,7673,417,9531,273,9243,097,8792,766,9912,334,3191,497,000868,6581,833,170501,175

Julho126,10111,618,0295,705,9524,168,0002,186,9563,313,7091,025,1153,972,9034,230,9472,562,7671,583,000839,8631,685,196392,430

Agosto9,704,2626,938,9823,620,9434,449,8791,772,5962,036,1651,254,8023,467,57323,8681,746,3861,764,592577,0381,177,672522,372

Setembro5,710,1236,530,0483,822,9232,908,0571,102,4262,092,9992,117,9102,132,498214,1881,934,1861,151,295334,4321,065,4231,007,936

Outubro621,4284,390,4323,007,4152,560,5471,591,5281,217,3261,766,9432,273,0951,657,5541,529,8271,030,131476,639637,376742,217

Novembro3,890,6154,134,2823,642,0572,388,0001,299,3321,155,4761,349,2141,302,2011,640,7641,869,804899,000348,952670,856530,958

Dezembro732,9275,702,8713,401,7782,469,000127,8291,493,833700,505337,0921,986,1341,490,848956,000407,652976,306235,369

TOTAL66,401,81570,263,90244,695,48438,528,84221,504,66021,377,45714,143,7892,414,60728,730,16518,212,69020,054,46915,717,6678,028,30510,753,6775,989,459835,631

10,469,3296,842,7436,760,0002,495,9682,414,6076,173,8353,457,9283,952,0001,180,573835,631

38,051,17916,601,71962,505,24673,021,39345,325,47928,335,47211,316,160

373,099,044177,455,581247,557,363112,291,59016,601,719303,068,589352,497,136340,170,014307,007,329141,065,182215,330,78883,556,72711,316,160

-54.6401736393-61.1961077298



Elaborao: CNA/Decon

Janeiro a Maro de 2006

- Exportaes: US$ 37,7 milhes Cresc. 31,8%

- Importaes: US$ 34,9 milhes Cresc. 11,5%

Grf1

381698.5381699.9-1.4

382006.9382006.60.3

382317.73823116.5-8.8

382617.43826114.1-6.7

3829210.7382929.61.1

3832213.83832210.63.2

3835313.1383537.55.6

3838415383846.18.9

384127.8384127.70.1

3844318.938443117.9

384737.53847311.5-4

3850413.43850410.13.3

16.913.43.5

Exportaes

Importaes

Saldo

(US$ milhes)

Plan1

ExportaoImportaoImportaoSaldo

Jan-004681680.538,500,99138.5-38.0

Feb-006586170.735,672,00035.7-35.0

Mar-0013064871.327,313,00027.3-26.0

Apr-008783040.923,216,00023.2-22.3

May-009542401.024,625,00024.6-23.7

2000Jun-0015750911.628,856,00028.9-27.3

Jul-009745481.036,783,00036.8-35.8

Aug-0010845311.137,986,35938.0-36.9

Sep-009284220.935,578,91435.6-34.7

Oct-0013836351.429,906,78029.9-28.5

Nov-0012476851.230,404,00030.4-29.2

Dec-0019011501.924,257,00024.3-22.4

Jan-0112149131.224,457,39624.5-23.2

Feb-017353300.720,686,03220.7-20.0

Mar-018736660.916,629,27016.6-15.8

Apr-019690021.013,085,00813.1-12.1

May-0118507221.916,592,35016.6-14.7

2001Jun-0113036691.321,003,09421.0-19.7

Jul-0117392461.717,612,27817.6-15.9

Aug-0123896382.411,657,89211.7-9.3

Sep-0141054304.111,999,63612.0-7.9

Oct-0135721433.69,881,0449.9-6.3

Nov-0131185483.17,759,6327.8-4.6

Dec-0131576863.26,091,9496.1-2.9

Jan-0282365838.214,406,34214.4-6.2

Feb-0222089852.217,497,24417.5-15.3

Mar-0226766782.717,721,60917.7-15.0

Apr-0217984521.821,314,43421.3-19.5

May-0220109092.025,421,74125.4-23.4

2002Jun-0228355282.824,627,91024.6-21.8

Jul-0239403233.932,256,67032.3-28.3

Aug-0231950353.221,095,07621.1-17.9

Sep-0228212422.816,159,23716.2-13.3

Oct-0224498692.414,724,02214.7-12.3

Nov-0260683896.121,453,38221.5-15.4

Dec-0219588982.020,879,69620.9-18.9

Jan-0325401592.512,935,04012.9-10.4

Feb-0334373103.49,680,9629.7-6.2

Mar-0316882221.715,435,17715.4-13.7

Apr-0313352141.36,360,3886.4-5.0

May-0325492342.510,119,28210.1-7.6

2003Jun-0323206972.36,266,0796.3-3.9

Jul-0354282625.46,455,3426.5-1.0

Aug-0348040294.86,357,2166.4-1.6

Sep-0339069553.911,413,59311.4-7.5

Oct-0358927025.910,630,47610.6-4.7

Nov-031057895510.68,932,8628.91.6

Dec-0340262524.07,705,1737.7-3.7

Jan-0432105653.27,564,5707.6-4.4

Feb-0424665392.53,713,9183.7-1.2

Mar-0461447626.15,323,2315.30.8

2004Apr-044.75.4-0.7

May-047.38.3-1.0

Jun-045.86.7-0.9

Jul-0412.28.93.3

Aug-047.68.3-0.7

Sep-048.17.20.9

Oct-0411.18.03.1

Nov-0412.76.66.1

Dec-0414.07.66.4

Jan-0511.512.0-0.5

2005Feb-058.69.4-0.8

Mar-058.59.9-1.4

Apr-054897014.007843146.906.60.3

May-057.716.5-8.8

Jun-057.414.1-6.7

Jul-0510.79.61.1

Aug-0513.810.63.2

Sep-0513.17.55.6

Oct-0515.06.18.9

Nov-057.87.70.1

Dec-0518.911.07.9

Jan-067.511.5-4.0

Feb-0613.410.13.3

Mar-0616.913.43.5

Poltica Cambial

Fonte: MDIC; BCB; CEPEA/USP

Forte influncia do Cmbio:

- Produo;

- Importao;

- Exportao.

Fonte: IBGE, Sistema Alice (2006 previso)

Elaborao: CNA

25,7 bilhes de Litros

520 milhes de litros

Perspectivas para 2006


Grf2

265911205.78212760

32316536.55310980

165410593.13711360

10955504.02510560

22948457.06710480

24304963.76110350

51254493.03810770

45184701.35510980

39417142.15710780

41757653.26911710

93696501.82612180

39475804.75713310

25264815.03712940

22322366.54811650

43184134.57511580

35863750.81310700

49465603.55711100

46274409.23511030

75546128.43211830

53735307.22811850

64684552.14511820

86974812.51212560

97444157.89713480

81635848.5814430

65546054.6214340

52766314.53412460

59095771.03912800

46104910.86111770

50409259.26212210

53718352.98712133

Exportaes

Importaes

Produo

Plan3

ExportaesImportaesProduoProduo

jan6,2068,68611,95011,95011,950

fev2,04211,36310,4701,04710,470

mar2,51512,75510,7801,07810,780

abr1,64121,04110,6001,06010,600

mai1,78522,89110,6301,06310,630

jun2,91723,64010,3901,03910,390

jul4,03531,78810,6401,06410,640

ago3,48820,91911,0001,10011,000

set3,18013,42510,5801,05810,580

out2,74213,35011,1701,11711,170

nov7,34917,30311,4601,14611,460

dez2,21818,17012,4801,24812,480

jan2,65911,20612,7601,27612,760

fev3,2316,53710,9801,09810,980

mar1,65410,59311,3601,13611,360

abr1,0955,50410,5601,05610,560

mai2,2948,45710,4801,04810,480

jun2,4304,96410,3501,03510,350

jul5,1254,49310,7701,07710,770

ago4,5184,70110,9801,09810,980

set3,9417,14210,7801,07810,780

out4,1757,65311,7101,17111,710

nov9,3696,50212,1801,21812,180

dez3,9475,80513,3101,33113,310

jan2,5264,81512,9401,29412,940

fev2,2322,36711,6501,16511,650

mar4,3184,13511,5801,15811,580

abr3,5863,75110,7001,07010,700

mai4,9465,60411,1001,11011,100

jun4,6274,40911,0301,10311,030

jul7,5546,12811,8301,18311,830

ago5,3735,30711,8501,18511,850

set6,4684,55211,8201,18211,820

out8,6974,81312,5601,25612,560

nov9,7444,15813,4801,34813,480

dez8,1635,84914,4301,44314,430

jan6,5546,05514,3401,43414,340

fev5,2766,31512,4601,24612,460

mar5,9095,77112,8001,28012,800

abr4,6104,91111,7701,17711,770

mai5,0409,25912,2101,22112,210

jun5,3718,35312,1331,21312,133

Grf3

0.05530.81680.6891

0.0282-0.62260.2179

0.055-0.36821.2208

0.06480.37090.2784

0.030.04210.0565

Produo

Importao

Exportao

Plan1

ProduoImportaoExportaoConsumo

20025.5%81.7%68.9%6.8%

20032.8%-62.3%21.8%-2.7%

20045.5%-36.8%122.1%2.3%

20056.5%37.1%27.8%5.2%

20063.0%4.2%5.7%1.8%

Plan4

Importao de Produtos Lcteos por NCM

janeiro a dezembro

1,000


MsValor FOB (Mil US$)Peso Lqido (mil Kg)

199719981999199719981999200020022003200420052,0022,0032,0042,005

Janeiro3,2033,4333,2037,9398,6139,2788,051241363908,68611,2064,8156,055

Fevereiro2,3523,0252,3527,7188,3316,8259,712307002311,3636,5372,3676,315

Maro1,8904,2551,8907,1129,3856,3478,143553106382012,75510,5934,1355,771

Abril2,5916,3602,59111,15713,4149,2555,6563,8176210021,0415,5043,7514,911

Maio3,3436,9643,34312,33214,58811,09610,1333,2312752371322,8918,4575,6049,259

Junho4,0087,9514,00811,75116,41812,72911,4174,0861471816123,6404,9644,4098,353

Julho4,3386,2464,33819,28812,85113,86911,6095,72175031,7884,4936,128

Agosto3,8775,4263,87712,18711,55412,5809,5683,97105820,9194,7015,307

Setembro3,1755,0113,17510,75511,82711,0346,1941,703229913,4257,1424,552

Outubro2,4933,6462,49310,8219,6999,2177,0822,493962713,3507,6534,813

Novembro3,0603,8493,0609,90810,67911,8654,49469954017,3036,5024,158

Dezembro2,9003,8622,9002,05611,08011,4003,8659514002818,1705,8055,849

TOTAL37,23260,02937,232123,025138,441125,49595,92327,5601,931672897

T. Parcial58,009,92370,749,42255,530,01053,111,50112,019,7331,284,979461,153896,798

Junho11,751,30616,417,78912,728,84311,417,0004,086,327147,24217,545160,795

NCM: 0402 (Leite em p)

MsValor FOB (Mil US$)Peso Lquido (Mil Kg)

1,9971,9981,99919971998199920002002200320042005

Janeiro21,98921,35325,37712,93711,44014,42619,0396,0185,2212,9624,450

Fevereiro15,55116,68617,2427,1868,66410,17016,0128,0234,1311,0432,712

Maro19,93430,98815,8319,36516,2299,13810,8527,5586,8471,4202,881

Abril33,55733,97922,46516,46617,30313,2587,5337,7951,7391,7071,411

Maio29,17627,24733,77415,53213,71320,8877,40310,9783,4272,4865,919

Junho26,22730,46225,42212,37216,03614,8549,07910,7701,8302,0454,337

Julho34,10247,78629,44316,63328,99618,56012,36313,6782,0782,756

Agosto25,02724,33728,42312,42412,82417,02313,66210,1311,9382,445

Setembro24,15921,72821,08512,27311,20612,84813,6177,6783,8132,237

Outubro28,27721,40726,24214,48710,87916,79410,1008,2023,2822,394

Novembro18,56221,24029,9749,58712,07220,45711,09612,6982,9181,850

Dezembro13,40230,29737,5926,84017,55324,9308,27610,3162,1781,824

TOTAL289,963327,510312,870146,101176,915193,346139,032113,84439,40225,17021,710

T. Parcial73,856,85383,385,29382,733,17169,918,14351,141,29923,195,91011,663,58121,710,492


Elaborao:CBCL/OCB

Junho12,372,27916,036,41914,854,4549,079,00010,769,8791,830,4462,044,9234,337,098

NCM: 0403 (Iogurte)


1,9971,9981,99919971998199920002002200320042005

Janeiro21528592305647929483,581360

Fevereiro1335811017531820335290168

Maro33313404841000285221,97161300

Abril6731303547712513743,1075581837

Maio834370743300261531846118

Junho11914269997440841,67101818

Julho2575914220577832212,595160

Agosto251144541145936183,571043

Setembro8513710568795343251818

Outubro1198043655632112573668

Novembro952191043819710425186125

Dezembro105131401269817563,266086

TOTAL2,4682,4886942,2301,99148641515,2656,788833541

T. Parcial1,613,025723,341213,334240,8605,534,2616,656,979593,865540,593


Elaborao:CBCL/CNA

Junho98,62374,01439,52984,0001,671,376018,00018,000



1,9971,9981,99919971998199920002002200320042005

Janeiro4831,5151,6347871,5981,7651,8012,1701,1161,4541,338

Fevereiro2497621,1773401,0421,4183,5142,1451,0231,0353,065

Maro7332,3522,2811,0012,9782,8913,8683,2029861,8122,278

Abril1,1992,9271,8971,3204,0032,3593,3094,3321,6841,6023,171

Maio6733,3492,0729364,3932,8134,2755,5353,7962,2192,251

Junho7132,6042,4748532,8513,3083,8934,0382,3741,8833,490

Julho1,1882,6981,8221,5813,5363,2003,9275,3971,8522,780

Agosto1,5592,6731,4361,3393,4952,3162,9871,6692,1312264

Setembro1,1902,6172,1051,4533,0313,6822,7812,1192,1471797

Outubro1,0181,6491,6001,2691,6032,1374,9741,4333,3651822

Novembro1,3111,0801,2611,6911,3131,6284,1712,5132,8021878

Dezembro5431,4592,2966441,6522,9533,6282,0772,6603476

TOTAL10,85925,68622,05613,21431,49530,47043,12836,63125,93724,02215,594

T. Parcial5,236,80016,864,55314,554,47120,660,38821,422,15910,979,92910,004,16515,593,597


Elaborao: CBCL/OCB

Junho853,4522,850,5333,307,5723,893,0004,038,3452,374,4251,882,6953,490,488



1,9971,9981,99919971998199920002002200320042005

Janeiro5477732,8512883811,4422,17592590486

Fevereiro8841,6558605048374341,43358754737151

Maro1,6151,3461,24588662361995429537115228

Abril2,7421,8861,7591,7318651,0821,9401,375520789

Maio6673,3042,4003551,8631,4855562,1284462846

Junho1,5092,5861,4208751,3307661,1901,2411103932

Julho1,3815,3263,1997823,0842,1541,0582,71280282

Agosto3693,5281,5391902,12889280939911098

Setembro9121,1101,17656755174071983513570

Outubro6449622,0133985201,385500328133120

Novembro3761,0901,8362125381,35276470413579

Dezembro3532,1342,1032071,0921,468745583332109

TOTAL12,00025,70022,4016,99513,81113,81812,84311,2783,5101,141272

T. Parcial4,638,6165,899,1085,827,3918,248,4665,717,2242,584,351383,031271,619

Junho874,9681,329,884765,8721,190,0001,240,992110,47339,45331,760

NCM: 0406 (Queijos)

MsValor FOB (Mil US$)Peso Lquido (Mil Kg)4,789,507

1,9971,9981,99919971998199920002002200320042005

Janeiro4,4494,3494,9601,3351,4601,9421,374335561277260

Fevereiro6,0202,4941,8002,1518445851,246266306251196

Maro7,7873,6453,0062,6881,1541,4251,323625313308284

Abril7,5614,9562,6892,5851,5141,1211,053615382345283

Maio10,1066,7593,5743,3882,0831,5131,841866494386313

Junho9,6938,7475,4653,0982,7672,3341,4971,833501407315

Julho12,61011,6185,7063,9734,2312,5631,5831,685392310

Agosto9,7046,9393,6213,4682,3871,7461,7651,178522399

Setembro5,7106,5303,8232,1322,1421,9341,1511,0651,008331

Outubro6,2144,3903,0072,2731,6581,5301,030637742382

Novembro3,8914,1343,6421,3021,6411,870899671531325

Dezembro7335,7033,4023371,9861,491956976235326

TOTAL84,47970,26444,69528,73023,86620,05415,71810,7545,9894,0481,650

T. Parcial15,244,8039,821,4218,920,6518,333,6494,540,8482,558,1771,973,9701,650,204


Elaborao: CBCL/OCB

junho3,097,8792,766,9912,334,3191,497,0001,833,170501,175406,619314,846

Total jun29,048,50739,475,63034,030,58927,160,00023,640,0894,963,7614,409,2358,352,987

Total jan a jun158,600,020187,443,138167,779,028160,513,007100,375,52447,260,32525,079,76540,663,303

EXP (jan a jun)

BRASIL - EXPORTAES EFETIVAS DE PRODUTOS LCTEOS

janeiro a junho

CDIGO NCMVALOR FOB (US$)VAR%PESO LQUIDO (KG)VAR%

2004200520042005

401 - LEITE E CREME DE1,074,5061,352,87125.91,081,7951,256,65016.2

LEITE, NO CONCENTR.

402 - LEITE E CREME DE21,110,14235,076,53466.216,981,00025,058,78347.6

LEITE, CONCENTRADO

403 - LEITELHO, LEITE E866,766654,384(24.5)1,111,724876,479(21.2)

CREME DE LEITE, CONC.

404 - SORO DE LEITE,12,56240,649223.68,79811,42629.9

MESMO CONC. OU ADIC.

405 - MANTEIGA E OUTRAS1,048,708593,986(43.4)614,773242,165(60.6)

MAT. GORDAS PROV. LEITE

406 - QUEIJOS E5,505,18612,960,430135.42,439,4775,316,270117.9

REQUEIJO

TOTAL29,617,87050,678,85471.122,237,56732,761,77347.3

Fonte: Sistema Alice/SECEX/MDIC

Obs.: Dados preliminares.

Elaborao:CNA/CBCL

EXP (jun)

BRASIL - EXPORTAES EFETIVAS DE PRODUTOS LCTEOS

junho

CDIGO NCMVALOR FOB (US$)VAR%PESO LQUIDO (KG)VAR%

2004200520042005

401 - LEITE E CREME DE221,394290,29631.1209,564307,90746.9

LEITE, NO CONCENTR.

402 - LEITE E CREME DE3,859,9514,425,55014.73,494,1803,927,35012.4

LEITE, CONCENTRADO

403 - LEITELHO, LEITE E231,72379,226(65.8)273,889116,710(57.4)

CREME DE LEITE, CONC.

404 - SORO DE LEITE,3,09112,565306.53,3262,500(24.8)

MESMO CONC. OU ADIC.

405 - MANTEIGA E OUTRAS97,746537,753450.249,746214,964332.1

MAT. GORDAS PROV. LEITE

406 - QUEIJOS E1,348,8072,041,99351.4597,044801,83434.3

REQUEIJO

TOTAL5,762,7127,387,38328.24,627,7495,371,26516.1

Fonte: Sistema Alice/SECEX/MDIC

Obs.: Dados preliminares.

Elaborao: CNA/CBCL

EXP (ms a ms)

Exportao de Produtos Lcteos por NCM

janeiro a dezembro


MsValor FOB (US$)Peso lquido (Kg)

200020012002200320042005200020012002200320042005

Janeiro6,50634,92144,701125,96745,42089,1816,13029,27461,163203,14353,183115,964

Fevereiro4,75770,028203,89843,681146,60927,1832,88657,981253,43665,101148,26432,662

Maro19,49622,707333,01247,544208,952486,57218,24415,916456,81580,057205,229387,115

Abril18,10733,79875,99359,268208,58741,31414,99529,59687,06790,902218,78845,089

Maio41,603148,095250,91226,371243,544418,32533,307126,078308,50035,127246,767367,913

Junho49,77031,572100,75159,626221,394290,29643,50222,642117,60585,029209,564307,907

Julho98,58436,818671,997264,720219,61386,60526,984771,541270,322223,059

Agosto2,89741,261810,621483,648168,2321,27240,929863,222428,689194,867

Setembro49,82938,003701,869155,937233,34343,67438,980763,634181,117229,297

Outubro76,936871,111440,8819,998497,95665,911895,708506,8274,939531,230

Novembro32,783355,77291,640165,458527,02328,814363,520118,806206,012626,279

Dezembro16,50361,9363,191133,129167,74814,48162,25793,644152,772177,929

TOTAL417,7711,746,0223,729,4661,575,3472,888,4211,352,871359,8211,709,8654,402,2601,803,2103,064,4561,256,650

T. Parcial140,239341,1211,009,267362,4571,074,5061,352,871119,064281,4871,284,586559,3591,081,7951,256,650

90,469309,549908,516302,831853,11275,562258,8451,166,981474,330872,231

NCM: 0402 (Leite em p e Condensado)


200020012002200320042005200020012002200320042005

Janeiro168,022532,5386,558,7641,555,3802,563,0929,223,510172,937504,5435,036,4321,775,1342,094,9515,417,870

Fevereiro179,353217,560699,0222,806,3891,542,3376,123,960136,106215,581905,1422,807,4031,650,7464,143,482

Maro587,669141,8471,371,6141,000,7444,268,8095,495,766689,275132,8541,368,9771,141,9203,174,1324,384,460

Abril219,344184,1641,002,121493,8273,125,0894,962,163219,808189,1511,011,474514,1612,627,7313,645,137

Maio260,010903,573748,1681,842,9485,750,8644,845,585226,288944,727744,9801,849,5283,939,2603,540,484

Junho794,265385,2362,049,7311,653,9423,859,9514,425,550918,008411,6662,272,7151,927,7223,494,1803,927,350

Julho176,578772,2702,354,1794,272,1629,522,945140,718855,1672,616,4074,346,3395,926,042

Agosto221,667187,2851,587,0422,957,9376,136,191136,324191,2792,000,2553,249,4024,465,503

Setembro163,0331,844,8791,385,7122,737,4606,800,314169,4002,066,6161,794,6713,085,4615,669,970

Outubro316,875404,0391,205,1183,884,9439,157,815274,052463,5921,548,4262,910,7417,437,793

Novembro444,9441,256,2495,189,1669,647,54010,181,240492,7281,105,6506,549,7048,714,8318,059,230

Dezembro1,069,3481,461,1681,060,7843,005,63711,336,4281,198,7031,341,0031,363,6803,254,7866,771,671

TOTAL4,601,1088,290,80825,211,42135,858,90974,245,07535,076,5344,774,3478,421,82927,212,86335,577,42855,311,20925,058,783

T. Parcial2,208,6632,364,91812,429,4209,353,23021,110,14235,076,5342,362,4222,398,52211,339,72010,015,86816,981,00025,058,783

7,699,28817,250,1918,088,14613,486,820

NCM: 0403 (Iogurte)


200020012002200320042005200020012002200320042005

Janeiro66,59072,212760,091264,62377,923102,21972,44769,727577,634367,354109,239137,213

Fevereiro118,39747,054849,814108,493129,36379,085169,98652,248691,378146,432147,831111,025

Maro164,70163,968713,682146,840106,292120,292229,18461,324576,672182,653158,566166,936

Abril120,00452,862461,739162,540120,644141,847153,63656,835426,707202,893172,052167,474

Maio71,34280,770559,447110,614200,821131,71566,96571,422536,777145,436250,147177,121

Junho111,630100,708376,991136,172231,72379,22691,120107,811396,687182,842273,889116,710

Julho62,449222,762379,963112,350322,74961,708186,552418,657137,222365,283

Agosto72,327855,760346,840105,778100,48965,984522,355428,161138,989158,075

Setembro73,156710,321384,363125,896103,37868,278590,671466,850167,569149,213

Outubro185,509713,121313,435138,86089,969144,164621,560462,355185,539142,300

Novembro70,7701,087,113339,230124,704193,23466,820884,789477,690164,744247,563

Dezembro50,9441,008,439369,008125,261169,59757,732752,739531,123176,341203,997

TOTAL1,167,8195,015,0905,854,6031,662,1311,846,182654,3841,248,0243,978,0335,990,6912,198,0142,378,155876,479

T. Parcial652,664417,5743,721,764929,282866,766654,384783,338419,3673,205,8551,227,6101,111,724876,479

793,110635,0431,044,768837,835



200020012002200320042005200020012002200320042005

Janeiro1895,129197284667,7502323,400181141084,373

Fevereiro7270017,6182,6490600003,1703,0220

Maro1,2397885,49971430015,6906104553,7946912502,500

Abril261,31913,22914,04004,644141,10010,12514,23202,053

Maio9,1957,9701,3762996,05608,3006,0801,0582502,0920

Junho9,438006633,09112,5659,315004453,3262,500

Julho4202,360021,7712422501,99106,628280

Agosto01109811,2880909101,500

Setembro2,55210,1967123013211,7389,114605400260

Outubro8,5491,1535,4581671,4377,6682,0886,9771141,128

Novembro4,4382,4562,4892,3084712,4841,6682,6881,733300

Dezembro08,14901,6016107,61701,34443

TOTAL36,77339,53128,96060,49116,38240,64931,21133,52225,42829,93112,30911,426

T. Parcial20,81415,20620,30133,36212,56240,64919,07111,03515,15818,8028,79811,426

32,6999,47118,3575,472



200020012002200320042005200020012002200320042005

Janeiro1,5554,196386,2067,493203,2458,8323161,322342,3702,448116,7722,610

Fevereiro4,7469573,8578,69615,55517,0931,4133421,5522,8567,4527,540

Maro4,8213,2545,0513,434496,68812,7161,7181,6311,8581,767304,1968,947

Abril2,3582,8948,2383,191212,6144,7887501,1062,7401,320122,2064,906

Maio6,48011,2883,47410,91622,86012,8042,5305,4081,35313,13414,4013,198

Junho10,851258,5085,99011,61097,746537,7533,111251,8932,46211,52049,746214,964

Julho27,308262,5782,9516,663758,64624,020267,3201,3245,873415,440

Agosto55,140707,082385756,56410,75536,611650,670372481,55615,787

Setembro23,992944,99910,128484,7319,18718,708836,4885,710331,9978,933

Outubro20,2841,248,7133,3911,157,6749,8537,806813,2121,573746,8802,721

Novembro1,66675,38513,35012,8393,07842363,2246,7805,6353,408

Dezembro3,34691,2213,97798,6047,9241,13165,8041,51451,1726,764

TOTAL162,5473,611,075446,9982,562,4151,848,151593,98698,5372,958,420369,6081,656,1581,067,826242,165

T. Parcial30,811281,097412,81645,3401,048,708593,9869,838261,702352,33533,045614,773242,165

33,730950,96221,525565,027

NCM: 0406 (Queijos)


200020012002200320042005200020012002200320042005

Janeiro225,306565,917486,624586,668320,4192,086,90882,452196,302188,294311,662152,003876,598

Fevereiro350,637399,731452,394452,433630,0262,354,840126,106132,388190,990206,210275,313981,512

Maro528,561641,102247,820488,9461,063,7212,340,101171,992223,932107,223247,457476,218959,503

Abril518,465693,965237,132602,3481,007,9751,773,107182,406255,427103,031272,190445,484745,422

Maio565,610699,026447,532558,0861,134,2382,363,481201,687244,092192,622250,821493,415951,401

Junho599,137527,645302,065458,6841,348,8072,041,993205,019183,111127,867223,435597,044801,834

Julho609,209442,458531,233750,5961,434,989225,763161,842227,348358,741624,159

Agosto732,500598,239450,147499,1211,169,478248,702223,892196,849218,988538,005

Setembro615,860557,032338,458402,630899,841217,579200,464148,590174,886410,819

Outubro775,482334,006481,586701,0601,342,279253,566132,743216,271326,938582,822

Novembro693,084341,573432,514626,1061,845,113239,425112,497194,330276,968807,756

Dezembro761,009526,773521,938662,0202,340,012260,991202,915228,506311,4381,003,354

TOTAL6,974,8606,327,4674,929,4436,788,69814,536,89812,960,4302,415,6882,269,6052,121,9213,179,7346,406,3925,316,270

T. Parcial2,787,7163,527,3862,173,5673,147,1655,505,18612,960,430969,6621,235,252910,0271,511,7752,439,4775,316,270

2,688,4814,156,3791,288,3401,842,433

Total Junho1,575,0911,303,6692,835,5282,320,6975,762,7127,387,3831,270,075977,1232,917,3362,430,9934,627,7495,371,265

Total Jan a Jun5,840,9076,947,30219,767,13513,870,83629,617,87050,678,8544,263,3954,607,36517,107,68113,366,45922,237,56732,761,773

EXP

Ministrio da Agricultura, Pecuria e Abastecimento - MAPA

Secretaria de Relaes Internacionais do Agronegcio - SRI

Departamento de Promoo Internacional do Agronegcio - DPIA

EXPORTAES BRASILEIRAS POR PAS DE DESTINO - NCM: 0401 / 0406

MERCADORIA / PASjul/04 - jun/05junho/05

US$KGP.MdioUS$KGP.Mdio

0401.10.10 LEITE UHT,CONT.MATERIA GORDA6%,N/CO2,949,5692,824,0731.04232,585193,1161.20

FILIPINAS874,6411,027,0370.85- 0- 0- 0

ESTADOS UNIDOS667,744536,5781.24212,683175,6201.21

VENEZUELA468,925501,0180.9319,90217,4961.13

IRA REP.ISL.DO433,924293,0761.48- 0- 0- 0

ARGENTINA116,310118,7290.97- 0- 0- 0

BOLIVIA70,44571,4820.98- 0- 0- 0

EMIR.ARABES UN.62,83748,8451.28- 0- 0- 0

PERU58,96652,6361.12- 0- 0- 0

PARAGUAI52,96262,9000.84- 0- 0- 0

LIBIA47,40332,5631.45- 0- 0- 0

ARGELIA40,82532,1721.26- 0- 0- 0

SUICA19,97417,3341.15- 0- 0- 0

URUGUAI18,42420,1600.91- 0- 0- 0

CHILE15,6959,2931.68- 0- 0- 0

CABO VERDE3001062.83- 0- 0- 0

JORDANIA1941441.34- 0- 0- 0

TOTAL 04013,166,7863,239,311290,296307,907

0402.10.10 LEITE EM PO,MAT.GORDA1.5%,CO63,09455,9651.122,6152,7840.93

ESTADOS UNIDOS46,11542,4561.08- 0- 0- 0

PARAGUAI6,3824,2481.50- 0- 0- 0

JAPAO6,3546,2641.012,6152,7840.93

CABO VERDE1,5661,3711.14- 0- 0- 0

ANGOLA1,2338701.41- 0- 0- 0

ALEMANHA1,0285401.90- 0- 0- 0

PORTUGAL4162161.92- 0- 0- 0

0402.29.10 LEITE INTEGRAL,EM PO,ETC.MATERIA GORDA>1.52,229,9831,269,4811.75543,039326,3121.66

ARGELIA1,723,6001,025,0001.68498,200300,0001.66

LIBIA144,71267,2482.15- 0- 0- 0

ESTADOS UNIDOS70,61218,7043.771,2341,3000.94

ANGOLA68,49524,6292.781571213.08

SERRA LEOA43,44825,0001.7343,44825,0001.73

LIBERIA41,02525,0001.64- 0- 0- 0

COSTA DO MARFIM28,32016,0001.77- 0- 0- 0

SURINAME25,60016,0001.60- 0- 0- 0

MAURITANIA25,60016,0001.60- 0- 0- 0

CONGO25,60016,0001.60- 0- 0- 0

GAMBIA12,8008,0001.60- 0- 0- 0

CAMAROES12,8008,0001.60- 0- 0- 0

CONGO,REP.DEM.DO7,3713,9001.89- 0- 0- 0

0402.29.20 LEITE PARCIALM.DESNATADO,EM PO,MATERIA GOR82,46250,3601.63- 0- 0- 0

NIGERIA80,75050,0001.61- 0- 0- 0

MOCAMBIQUE1,7123604.75- 0- 0- 0

0402.29.30 CREME DE LEITE,EM PO,ETC.MATERIA GORDA>1.59,2084,6501.983,3751,4402.34

ESTADOS UNIDOS9,1364,6081.983,3751,4402.34

ANGOLA72421.71- 0- 0- 0

0402.91.00 OUTS.LEITES,CREMES DE LEITE,CONCENTRADOS,N700,088693,3791.0016116.00

LIBIA627,112623,4631.00- 0- 0- 0

HAITI52,56550,4291.04- 0- 0- 0

BAHAMAS20,34319,4831.04- 0- 0- 0

ANGOLA68417.0016116.00

0402.99.00 OUTS.LEITES,CREMES DE LEITE,CONCENTRADOS,A30,504,22034,340,6650.883,381,4453,369,5731.00

ANGOLA10,898,19312,460,4220.871,334,9271,388,6660.96

ESTADOS UNIDOS3,544,5014,257,3340.8323,63318,9051.25

TRINIDAD E TOBAGO3,419,0624,021,1540.85107,831106,4791.01

VENEZUELA2,818,4973,022,8340.93415,447400,7661.03

LIBANO842,476872,8970.96198,307180,7641.09

TUNISIA828,529859,4330.96193,133191,1161.01

ARGENTINA730,349732,5160.99130,407116,5851.11

MAURICIO720,229918,7920.7819,41419,2081.01

PARAGUAI650,492656,3290.9944,93546,4520.96

BOLIVIA608,632624,8320.97224,397214,8181.04

COVEITE474,955472,9021.0080,53873,4131.09

BELIZE453,180496,9100.9138,74838,2241.01

LIBIA323,245382,2340.84- 0- 0- 0

IRA REP.ISL.DO319,683324,9010.98154,584152,8961.01

GUINE EQUATORIAL288,562301,9380.95- 0- 0- 0

CHILE249,084283,0420.88124,940127,0130.98

CAMAROES229,581253,7940.90- 0- 0- 0

HONDURAS222,304247,7280.8916,64016,4571.01

EMIR.ARABES UN.215,730265,2890.81- 0- 0- 0

CUBA179,321190,9680.9319,37419,1121.01

HAITI172,493196,8080.8719,37419,1121.01

BAHAMAS169,248179,4770.9443,18842,3381.02

OMA158,239164,8000.96- 0- 0- 0

GABAO149,950160,7240.9314,80819,1120.77

ARGELIA133,863152,8940.87- 0- 0- 0

SEYCHELLES132,319134,4570.9819,41419,2081.01

GRANADA121,798133,7840.91- 0- 0- 0

CAYMAN,ILHAS121,125132,2660.9139,25737,4651.04

NOVA ZELANDIA101,176123,8310.81- 0- 0- 0

PANAMA91,80689,6041.02- 0- 0- 0

CONGO89,93095,1600.9436,48138,0640.95

AFRICA DO SUL89,68196,0410.9356,09557,6250.97

AZERBAIJAO81,74891,7680.8918,60819,1120.97

ANTILHAS HOLAND.70,03575,1960.93- 0- 0- 0

MARROCOS67,41576,4470.88- 0- 0- 0

PERU66,16769,6780.94- 0- 0- 0

BARBADOS58,01274,8740.77- 0- 0- 0

GUIANA56,77757,3360.99- 0- 0- 0

SUICA55,11771,1370.77- 0- 0- 0

URUGUAI54,67735,0111.562,1601,9231.12

TANZANIA48,17357,3360.84- 0- 0- 0

SENEGAL45,12958,2460.77- 0- 0- 0

AUSTRALIA43,25055,0590.78- 0- 0- 0

SURINAME41,05745,9980.89- 0- 0- 0

CABO VERDE37,23422,9701.62- 0- 0- 0

POLINESIA FRANC.36,42636,7060.99- 0- 0- 0

EL SALVADOR29,13625,8801.12- 0- 0- 0

COLOMBIA24,09020,8561.15- 0- 0- 0

TURCOMENISTAO23,79830,7160.77- 0- 0- 0

MEXICO22,95123,6620.96- 0- 0- 0

JORDANIA19,16120,3430.94- 0- 0- 0

NIGERIA18,08019,0320.94- 0- 0- 0

IRAQUE15,90418,3530.86- 0- 0- 0

ARUBA12,78016,4950.77- 0- 0- 0

SANTA LUCIA12,48716,1160.77- 0- 0- 0

DOMINICA4,8054,7401.014,8054,7401.01

ANTIGUA BARBUDA3,6734,7400.77- 0- 0- 0

MOCAMBIQUE3,1471,7491.79- 0- 0- 0

JAPAO2,8042,8440.98- 0- 0- 0

ALEMANHA1,6141,1381.41- 0- 0- 0

ESPANHA227882.57- 0- 0- 0

PAISES BAIXOS113562.01- 0- 0- 0

TOTAL 040288,211,46763,388,9924,425,5503,927,350

0403.10.00 IOGURTE105,18648,5082.165,0137107.06

ESTADOS UNIDOS57,88427,8382.075,0137107.06

PARAGUAI43,26117,3702.49- 0- 0- 0

ANGOLA2,6141,8601.40- 0- 0- 0

URUGUAI1,1501,3850.83- 0- 0- 0

COREIA,REP.SUL277555.03- 0- 0- 0

0403.90.00 LEITELHO,LEITE,CREME DE LEITE,COALHADOS,FE1,528,6142,094,4020.7274,213116,0000.63

ARGENTINA853,1201,395,0080.6162,00099,2000.62

MEXICO325,791328,4070.99- 0- 0- 0

URUGUAI94,583154,4750.618,75014,0000.62

ARABIA SAUDITA72,07767,7441.06- 0- 0- 0

ANGOLA38,52817,5022.2061401.52

ESTADOS UNIDOS35,08829,6741.183001442.08

EMIR.ARABES UN.24,62922,7151.08- 0- 0- 0

PARAGUAI22,04228,4960.773602271.58

LIBANO15,02813,0451.152,7422,3891.14

CUBA13,80111,0161.25- 0- 0- 0

COVEITE10,2859,5751.07- 0- 0- 0

MOCAMBIQUE10,1415,2371.93- 0- 0- 0

REP.DOMINICANA8,9107,2901.22- 0- 0- 0

JORDANIA2,0982,2750.92- 0- 0- 0

GUIANA FRANCESA1,5591,1531.35- 0- 0- 0

OMA3503790.92- 0- 0- 0

REINO UNIDO3051402.17- 0- 0- 0

CABO VERDE1432230.64- 0- 0- 0

CHINA136482.83- 0- 0- 0

TOTAL 04031,633,8002,142,91079,226116,710

0404.10.00 SORO DE LEITE,MODIFICADO OU NAO,MESMO CONC7,5853,8811.95- 0- 0- 0

ANGOLA4,2241,7532.40- 0- 0- 0

ESTADOS UNIDOS2,1701,2781.69- 0- 0- 0

BOLIVIA1,1918501.40- 0- 0- 0

0404.90.00 OUTS.PRODS.CONSTITUIDOS DO LEITE,MESMO ADO36,88411,0563.3312,5652,5005.02

URUGUAI28,2555,0005.6512,5652,5005.02

ANGOLA5,8833,4181.72- 0- 0- 0

PARAGUAI2,2752,3280.97- 0- 0- 0

ESTADOS UNIDOS4503001.50- 0- 0- 0

SUICA21102.10- 0- 0- 0

TOTAL 040444,46914,93712,5652,500

0405.10.00 MANTEIGA132,49587,0581.5227,05715,0441.79

ESTADOS UNIDOS61,05516,6693.6618,6585,0403.70

PARAGUAI46,13465,3310.708,39510,0040.83

JAPAO21,7113,9005.56- 0- 0- 0

ANGOLA3,4871,0823.224- 0- 0

PAISES BAIXOS5978.42- 0- 0- 0

URUGUAI49690.71- 0- 0- 0

0405.90.10 OLEO BUTIRICO DE MANTEIGA ("BUTTER OIL")1,260,934608,1602.07510,696199,9202.55

CANADA510,696199,9202.55510,696199,9202.55

EMIR.ARABES UN.477,618249,4801.91- 0- 0- 0

IEMEM272,620158,7601.71- 0- 0- 0

TOTAL 04051,393,429695,218537,753214,964

0406.10.10 QUEIJO TIPO MUSSARELA,FRESCO (NAO CURADO)9,286,3583,923,9192.36643,013236,2752.72

COREIA,REP.SUL6,772,8512,939,5562.30308,091122,5012.51

CHILE1,336,622508,4742.62206,54970,0402.94

TAIWAN (FORMOSA)702,729312,0322.25123,13442,4492.90

REP.DOMINICANA130,22943,9922.96- 0- 0- 0

JAPAO68,71923,6972.89- 0- 0- 0

PARAGUAI68,19422,8262.98- 0- 0- 0

ESTADOS UNIDOS66,55820,6613.223,2406485.00

TRINIDAD E TOBAGO62,68921,9962.85- 0- 0- 0

ARABIA SAUDITA61,49624,5982.50- 0- 0- 0

ANGOLA16,2716,0872.671,9996373.13

0406.10.90 OUTS.QUEIJOS FRESCOS (NAO CURADOS),INCL.RE897,510360,9902.4895,81531,2003.07

ESTADOS UNIDOS386,115118,0833.2657,16515,4463.70

CHILE281,235161,4501.7423,98011,0322.17

PERU109,09640,6902.6812,7173,9093.25

EQUADOR48,15920,3792.36- 0- 0- 0

JAPAO39,4828,0294.911,2474732.63

ANGOLA22,3947,0583.17- 0- 0- 0

PARAGUAI7,3693,9151.887063402.07

TAIWAN (FORMOSA)1,8161,0321.75- 0- 0- 0

CABO VERDE1,2161707.15- 0- 0- 0

CINGAPURA4801303.69- 0- 0- 0

URUGUAI148542.74- 0- 0- 0

0406.20.00 QUEIJOS RALADOS OU EM PO,DE QUALQUER TIPO15,7912,8175.603,8716116.33

JAPAO12,2272,0106.083,8036006.33

COLOMBIA1,5602506.24- 0- 0- 0

PANAMA1,2963603.60- 0- 0- 0

ESTADOS UNIDOS380993.83- 0- 0- 0

ANGOLA212782.7168116.18

URUGUAI116205.80- 0- 0- 0

0406.30.00 QUEIJOS FUNDIDOS,EXCETO RALADOS OU EM PO5,197,9342,566,1432.02574,351282,4832.03

ARGENTINA2,311,5511,194,4051.93202,366102,9411.96

CHILE996,117542,3971.83194,133107,1281.81

IRAQUE663,798244,7582.71- 0- 0- 0

PARAGUAI371,978210,9681.7615,1896,8172.22

URUGUAI232,959112,2402.0716,2286,8642.36

PERU228,820110,1412.0771,53931,1042.29

CHINA219,09278,1232.8074,89627,6292.71

JORDANIA80,89231,5442.56- 0- 0- 0

COREIA,REP.SUL55,62421,9242.53- 0- 0- 0

PORTO RICO37,00419,6131.88- 0- 0- 0

ANGOLA99303.30- 0- 0- 0

0406.40.00 QUEIJOS DE PASTA MOFADA (AZUL)14,9425,5422.694,3591,7152.54

CHILE12,2854,6572.634,1751,6662.50

PARAGUAI2,6578853.00184493.75

0406.90.10 QUEIJOS CONT.TEOR DE UMIDADE

Apresentao

Cenrio atual;

Potencial de crescimento da produo;

Desafios ao aumento da competitividade:

Mercado interno;

Mercado internacional;

Propostas de Polticas para o Setor;

Cenrio Atual

Produo de Leite sob inspeo(ms a ms)

1,29

1,28

1,101,14

1,061,05 1,04

1,081,10 1,08

1,17

1,22

1,33

1,17 1,16

1,07

1,11 1,10

1,18 1,18 1,18

1,25

1,34

1,451,431,42

1,47

1,44

1,251,28

1,261,30 1,31

1,36 1,36 1,33

1,0

1,1

1,1

1,2

1,2

1,3

1,3

1,4

1,4

1,5

1,5

jan fev mar abr mai jun jul ago set out nov dez

(bil

es d

e lit

ros)

2003 2004 2005

2005/04 Crescimento de 11,87%

Fonte: IBGE

Produo de leite sob inspeo(milhes de litros)

Fonte: IBGE

NORTE

Produo 2005: 823,3

Cresc. 2005/04: - 0,9%

SUL

Produo 2005: 4.172,4

Cresc. 2005/04: 16,5%

CENTRO-OESTE

Produo 2005: 2.610,1

Cresc. 2005/04: 18,1%

SUDESTE

Produo 2005: 7.665,5

Cresc. 2005/04: 6,9%

NORDESTE

Produo 2005: 944,2

Cresc. 2005/04: 33,7%

BRASIL

Produo 2005: 16.215,5

Cresc. 2005/04: 11,9%

Crescimento de 1,7 bilho delitros em relao a 2004

MATO GROSSO

Produo 2005: 318,7

Cresc. 2005/04: 14,6%


8,983,9

112,3

247,6177,5

373,1439,9

511,7456,6

121,29,4 8,1 7,5 13,4 25,0 40,2 48,595,4 130,1

11,5-63,8

-207,4-152,4

-359,7-432,4

-503,6-447,2

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

1.997 1.998 1.999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Val

or F

OB

(mil

US$)

Saldo

Exportaes

Importaes

Fonte: Sistema AliceElaborao: CNA/Decon


-1,4 0,33,2

5,68,9

0,1

7,9

-8,8-6,7

1,1

-4,0

3,53,3

9,9

16,514,1

7,7

16,9

6,98,5

13,4

7,7 7,4

10,7

13,8

7,5

18,9

7,8

15,013,1

6,69,6

10,67,5 6,1

11,0 11,5

10,113,4

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

mar/05 abr/05 mai/05 jun/05 jul/05 ago/05 set/05 out/05 nov/05 dez/05 jan/06 fev/06 mar/06

(US

$ m

ilhe

s)

Saldo Exportaes Importaes

Janeiro a Maro de 2006

- Exportaes: US$ 37,7 milhes Cresc. 31,8%

- Importaes: US$ 34,9 milhes Cresc. 11,5%Fonte: Sistema AliceElaborao: CNA/Decon

Poltica Cambial

Saldo da Balana Comercial Real/Dlar

Preo do leite ao produtor

set/04 0,9 2,891 0,585

out/04 3,1 2,852 0,578

nov/04 6,1 2,786 0,562

dez/04 6,4 2,718 0,549

jan/05 -0,5 2,693 0,544

fev/05 -0,8 2,597 0,546

mar/05 -1,4 2,704 0,554

abr/05 0,3 2,579 0,578

mai/05 -8,8 2,452 0,592

jun/05 -6,7 2,413 0,595

jul/05 1,1 2,373 0,568

ago/05 3,2 2,361 0,508

set/05 5,6 2,294 0,484

out/05 8,9 2,256 0,469

nov/05 0,1 2,211 0,447

dez/05 7,9 2,285 0,427Fonte: MDIC; BCB; CEPEA/USP

Perspectivas para 2006

Forte influncia do Cmbio:- Produo;- Importao;- Exportao.

Fonte: IBGE, Sistema Alice (2006 previso)Elaborao: CNA

5,5%

81,7%68,9%

2,8%

-62,3%

21,8%5,5%

-36,8%

122,1%

6,5%

37,1%27,8%

3,0% 4,2%5,7%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Produo Importao Exportao

25,7 bilhes de Litros



Potencial de Crescimento da

Produo

Produtividade em 2005(mil litros de leite/vaca/ano)

Potencial decrescimento

Fontes: Embrapa Gado de Leite e FAO

Elaborao: CNA/Decon

8,9

7,67,2 7,0

5,0

4,13,7

1,41,0

Es tadosUnidos

Canad P a s e sBaixos

Re inoUnido

Aus trlia Arg e ntina NovaZe lndia

Bras il ndia

Quanto podemos crescer?

MANEJO

GENTICA


REA

FORRAGENS (NUTRIO)


SISTEMA DE PRODUO

EFICINCIA

- Mercado interno

- Mercado internacional

Desafios ao aumento da

competitividade:

Desafios no Mercado Interno

Cenrio para 2014

30,128,5

1,6

31,629,7

1,9

33,230,8

2,4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

(bilh

es

de li

tros

)

Pessimista Realista Otimista

Produo Demanda Saldo

134 140 145

Fonte: UFV

Oscilao e falta de previsibilidade de preos(janeiro de 1970 a fevereiro de 2006)

0,43

1,97

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

jan/70 jan/73 jan/76 jan/79 jan/82 jan/85 jan/88 jan/91 jan/94 jan/97 jan/00 jan/03 jan/06

Fonte: FGV, 2006 - Defacionado pelo IGP-DI

Preo do Leite(Comparao entre os meses de 2000 a 2006)

Fonte: CEPEA/USPValores deflacionados pelo IGP-DI

0,538 0,536

0,418

0,595

0,567

0,489

0,566

0,498

0,535

0,449

0,541

0,490

0,593

0,40

0,42

0,44

0,46

0,48

0,50

0,52

0,54

0,56

0,58

0,60

jan/00 jul/00 jan/01 jul/01 jan/02 jul/02 jan/03 jul/03 jan/04 jul/04 jan/05 jul/05 jan/06

Nota: Inflao Comportamento do ndice de Preos ao Consumidor (IPC) da FGVAlimentao Comportamento do IPC referente a alimentaoLaticnios Comportamento dos Preos Pagos pelos Consumidores de Leite e DerivadosProdutor Comportamento dos Preos Recebidos pelos Produtores segundo o CEPEA/USP

Comportamento dos Preos

103,16

96,69

79,7

104,74

78

83

88

93

98

103

108

de z /04 jan/05 fe v/05 mar/05 abr/05 mai/05 jun/05 jul/05 ag o/05 s e t/05 out/05 nov/05 de z /05

Alime nta o Latic n ios P rodutor Infla o

100

Produtor

Laticnios

Alimentao

Inflao


01/05/2005 01/05/2006 Variao

Laranja pra 1Kg R$ 0,83 R$ 1,64 97,59%

Aucar cristal Minascar 5Kg R$ 4,54 R$ 6,94 52,86%

Alcool comum 1 litro R$ 1,42 R$ 2,17 52,42%

Chuchu 1Kg R$ 0,72 R$ 0,93 29,17%

01/05/2005 01/05/2006 Variao

Tomate ma 1Kg R$ 4,47 R$ 2,66 -40,49%

Batata inglesa 1Kg R$ 2,82 R$ 1,72 -39,01%

Ma nacional vermelha R$ 3,16 R$ 2,07 -34,49%

Leite longa vida Parmalat R$ 1,79 R$ 1,33 -25,70%

Maiores Altas

Maiores Quedas

Fonte: Jornal Estado de Minas 02 de maio de 2006


Nota: Rao - Comportamento do ndice de Preos no Atacado para as Raes e Sal Mineral Produtor Comportamento dos Preos Recebidos pelos Produtores segundo o CEPEA/USP

Produtor

Rao/Sal Mineral

96,98

100

79,7

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

de z /04 jan/05 fe v/05 mar/05 abr/05 mai/05 jun/05 jul/05 ag o/05 s e t/05 out/05 nov/05 de z /05

Ra o/S al Mine ral P rodutor

Consumo per capita aparente de Lcteos(1980 - 2005)

133,5 134,5

92,1

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Con

sum

o pe

r ca

pta

apar

ente

(Litr

os/h

ab.)

Recomendao mnima Guia Alimentar Brasileiro

Expanso do Consumo

9 bilhes de litros/ano

Fonte dos dados bsicos: IBGE, MAPA, MF, SECEX/MDIC

Consumo de Lcteos

Distribuio % da despesa familiar mdia com alimentao(Regio Metropolitana de So Paulo)

5,445,11

17,42

6,8813,27

8,18

10,2913,29

6,67

9,179,07

19,7629,59 22,98

6,544,006,983,445,52

6,738,29

16,9521,33 5,55

6,85 14,28

16,42

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1987/1988 1995/1996 2002/2003

OutrosBebidas e infusesPanificadosLeites e derivadosAves e ovosCarnesFrutasAcaresCereais

Fonte: IBGEElaborao: Milkpoint

Desafios no Mercado Interno

Programa de Incentivo a Produo

e ao Consumo de Leite

XIncoerncia

Instruo Normativa n51(Norte e Nordeste 01 de julho 2007)

Projeto Conhecer/CNA:

- 84% do leite dos produtores resfriam o leite nas regies Sul, Sudeste e Centro-Oeste

90% das anlises da RBQL esto dentro dos padres da IN n 51

Organizao de Produtores

Fortalecimento do Associativismo

Sistema Sindical ( CNA/American Farm Bureau)

Associaes (tanques comunitrios)

Cooperativas (virtuais?)

Desafios no Mercado

Internacional

Desafios no Mercado Internacional

Produo Mundial de Leite em 2005(531 bilhes de litros)

Fontes: Embrapa Gado de Leite e FAO

Elaborao: CNA/Decon

80,2

38,5

30,627,6

25,3 25,0 24,5

14,6

Es tadosUnidos

ndia Rs s ia Ale manha Fran a Bras il China NovaZe lndia


Principais pases exportadores de leite(30 bilhes de litros)

NZ34,6%

EU31,1%

Outros14,8%

Austrlia15,5%

EUA4,0%

Fontes: Australian Dairy Corporation

Elaborao: CNA/Decon


Subsdio por Produto (PSE) (US$ milhes)

Fonte: OCDE PSE, mdia 1998 a 2002PSE: Valor monetrio anual de transferncias dos consumidores contribuintes para os produtores rurais

44.045

27.587 25.706

17.578

11.435 9.885 8.9136.252 6.156 4.790 4.439

1.718 130

80.313

LEITE

CARN

E BOV

INA

ARRO

Z

TRIG

O

MILH

O

OUTR

OS C

EREA

ISCA

RNE S

UINA

AUC

AROL

EAGI

NOSA

S

AVES

CARN

ES O

VINA

S

OVOS L

OUTR

OS P

RODU

TOS


Defesa Comercial

Aplicao de Medidas Antidumping:

Elevao da Tarifa Externa Comum (TEC) do Mercosul para Leite em P,

Soro e Queijo

9.579

14.462

11.394

18.782

4.350

8.990

95 446 93 418 41 188

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Toneladas Mil US$

Reduo das importaes de leite em p da UE 14,8% de direito antidumping 27% de TEC


Promoo das Exportaes

Negociar acordos de equivalncia sanitria;

Agilizar processo de habilitao de indstrias para exportao;

Identificar barreiras a produtos lcteos brasileiros nos principais

mercados mundiais;

Regulamentar normas e tipificao de produtos lcteos, com o

objetivo de atender mercados externos.

Propostas de Polticas

para o Setor

Aes da CNPL para 2006

1) Baixo consumo de lcteos

Ampliar para todo pas, o Programa de Incentivo a Produo e ao Consumo de Leite (IPLC), do Ministrio do Desenvolvimento Social e Combate Fome e elevar o limite da aquisio por beneficirio produtor.

Desonerar de PIS/PASEP e COFINS, raes e sal mineral, tanques de resfriamento de leite, ordenhadeira mecnica, equipamentos de reposio e material de limpeza dos equipamentos.

Suprimir da lei n 11.265/2006, que regulamenta a comercializao de alimentos para lactantes e crianas de primeira infncia, a exigncia de incluir no painel principal do rtulo de produtos lcteos a frase O Ministrio da Sade adverte: Este produto no deve ser usado para alimentar crianas menores de 1 (um) ano de idade.


2) Distores nas importaes de lcteos

Manter o leite em p, soro e queijos na lista de exceo da Tarifa Externa Comum (TEC).

Prorrogar por mais cinco anos as medidas antidumping aplicadas a Unio Europia e Nova Zelndia.

3) Falta de previsibilidade de preos do leite ao produtor

Criar Prmio de Risco para Aquisio de Produto Agropecurio oriundo de Contrato Privado de Opo e Venda (PROP).


Viabilizar o enquadramento dos Produtores no Programa Nacional de

Melhoria da Qualidade do Leite:- Disparidade de preos pagos ao produtor.

Preos praticados no Estado de Gois em fevereiro de 2006

R$ 0,42

R$ 0,34

R$ 0,49

R$ 0,37

Preo mnpadro

Preo mnfora dopadro

Preo mxpadro

Preo mxfora dopadroFonte: FAEG


Viabilizar o enquadramento dos Produtores no Programa Nacional de Melhoria

da Qualidade do Leite:

- Implementar programa de treinamento de produtores e trabalhadores rurais;

- Assistncia tcnica (pblica/privada);

- Recursos para infra-estrutura (mquinas, equipamentos, estradas, etc..).

29%

28%

25%

2%

16%

Orientao tcnica

Treinamento dos funcionrios

Aquisio de tanque de resfriamento

Eletrif icao na propriedade

Outros

Projeto Conhecer(Principais demandas dos produtores)

Obrigado.

Rodrigo Sant`Anna Alvim

([email protected])

Oportunidades para a Produo de Leite no BrasilApresentaoCenrio AtualProduo de Leite sob inspeo(ms a ms)Balana Comercial do Agronegcio LeiteBalana Comercial do Agronegcio LeitePoltica CambialForte influncia do Cmbio:- Produo;- Importao;- Exportao.Potencial de Crescimento da ProduoProdutividade em 2005(mil litros de leite/vaca/ano)Quanto podemos crescer?Quanto podemos crescer?Quanto podemos crescer?- Mercado interno- Mercado internacionalDesafios no Mercado InternoOscilao e falta de previsibilidade de preos (janeiro de 1970 a fevereiro de 2006)Preo do Leite (Comparao entre os meses de 2000 a 2006)Consumo per capita aparente de Lcteos (1980 - 2005)Distribuio % da despesa familiar mdia com alimentao(Regio Metropolitana de So Paulo)Desafios no Mercado InternacionalProduo Mundial de Leite em 2005(531 bilhes de litros)Defesa ComercialPromoo das ExportaesPropostas de Polticas para o Setor

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