l@h lubl ih?lhtlu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 u|lmih†bbh...l@h_lubl ih?lhtlu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4...

50
L@h_ Lu BLih?Lht Lu |i 6i_ih@* +itihi 5)t|i4 W?|ih?@|L?@* 6?@?Ui #tUttL? @Tiht 4Mih S2S U|LMih bbH 6+,‘+k 6+ ,W 6+,5AWB i* + ,hUttL? @?_ a@4i @h^i3 A,G W?|ih?@|L?@* 6?@?Ui #tUttL? @Tiht @hi Thi*4?@h) 4@|ih@*t UhU*@|i_ |L t|4*@|i _tUttL? @?_ Uh|U@* UL44i?| +iuihi?Uit |L W?|ih?@|L?@* 6?@?Ui #tUttL? @Tiht EL|ih |@? @? @U!?L*i_}4i?| |@| |i h|ih @t @_ @UUitt |L ?TM*ti_ 4@|ih@* tL*_ Mi U*i@hi_ | |i @|Lh Lh @|Lht +iUi?| W6#t @hi @@*@M*i L? |i ‘iM @| ML}uhMui_t

Upload: others

Post on 05-Sep-2020

5 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

�L@h_ Lu BL�ih?Lht Lu |�i 6i_ih@* +itih�i 5)t|i4

W?|ih?@|�L?@* 6�?@?Ui #�tU�tt�L? �@Tiht

��4Mih S2S

�U|LMih �bbH

� 6+��,`�+k 6�+ ,�����W� 6�+,��5AW�B

�i�* +� ,h�UttL? @?_ a@�4i �@h^�i3

��A,G W?|ih?@|�L?@* 6�?@?Ui #�tU�tt�L? �@Tiht @hi Thi*�4�?@h) 4@|ih�@*t U�hU�*@|i_|L t|�4�*@|i _�tU�tt�L? @?_ Uh�|�U@* UL44i?|� +iuihi?Uit |L W?|ih?@|�L?@* 6�?@?Ui#�tU�tt�L? �@Tiht EL|�ih |�@? @? @U!?L�*i_}4i?| |�@| |�i �h�|ih �@t �@_ @UUitt |L�?T�M*�t�i_ 4@|ih�@*� t�L�*_ Mi U*i@hi_ ��|� |�i @�|�Lh Lh @�|�Lht� +iUi?| W6#�t@hi @�@�*@M*i L? |�i iM @| ����ML}�uhM�ui_��t�

Page 2: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

� 6+��,`�+k 6�+ ,�����W� 6�+,��5AW�B

�i�* +� ,h�UttL? @?_ a@�4i �@h^�i3W

�Mt|h@U| G A��t T@Tih ThLTLtit @ |h�T@h|�|i uh@4i�Lh! Lu _it�}?c i�@*�@|�L?c @?_ TLt|�

i�@*�@|�L? @?@*)t�t uLh }i?ih@|�?} @?_ �?|ihThi|�?} iUL?L4�U uLhiU@t|t� A��t uh@4i�

�Lh!<t �@*�i �t �**�t|h@|i_ M) hi�i @4�?�?} 4i@? t^�@hi uLhiU@t| ihhLht uhL4 _)?@4�U

4L_i*t @?_ ?L?*�?i@h�|) M�@tit uhL4 i4T�h�U@* uLhiU@t|t Lu N�5� i |ih?@* |h@_i� �hi�

��L�t t|�_�it �@�i i @4�?i_ ThLTih|�it t�U� @t ?L?*�?i@h�|) M�@t @?_ |�i TLtt�M*i

?L?4L?L|L?�U�|) @?_ ?L?i �t|i?Ui Lu 4i@? t^�@hi uLhiU@t| ihhLht �? �tL*@|�L? uhL4

L|�ih @tTiU|t Lu |�i uLhiU@t|�?} ThLUittc hit�*|�?} �? �?i�U�i?| uLhiU@t|�?} |iU�?�^�it

@?_ tii4�?}*) T�33*�?} T�i?L4i?@� A�i uh@4i�Lh! _i�i*LTi_ hi�i@*t �L� i@U� t�U�

ThLTih|) uL**L�t uhL4 t)t|i4@|�U@**) �?|i}h@|�?} @** @tTiU|t Lu |�i uLhiU@t|�?} ThLUitt�

ki)�Lh_tG uLhiU@t|tc 4i@? t^�@hi uLhiU@t| ihhLhc �L?|i �@h*Lc ?L?*�?i@h�|) M�@tc

|h@_i M@*@?Ui�

a,w U*@tt��U@|�L?tG �D�c ��D�

�Iruwkfrplqj lq wkh Hfrqrphwulfv Mrxuqdo / dq hohfwurqlf mrxuqdo sxeolvkhg e| wkh Ur|do Hfr0qrplf Vrflhw| rq wkh ZruogZlgh Zhe dw zzz1eodfnzhoosxeolvkhuv1fr1xn2hfwm21 Wkh dxwkruv duhvwd� hfrqrplvwv lq wkh Glylvlrq ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Ilqdqfh/ Erdug ri Jryhuqruv ri wkh Ihghudo UhvhuyhV|vwhp/ Zdvklqjwrq/ G1F1 53884 X1V1D1/ dqg pd| eh uhdfkhg rq wkh Lqwhuqhw dw hulfvvrqCiue1jrydqg pdutxh}mCiue1jry uhvshfwlyho|1 Wkh ylhzv lq wklv sdshu duh vroho| wkh uhvsrqvlelolw| ri wkhdxwkruv dqg vkrxog qrw eh lqwhusuhwhg dv uh�hfwlqj wkh ylhzv ri wkh Erdug ri Jryhuqruv ri wkhIhghudo Uhvhuyh V|vwhp ru ri dq| rwkhu shuvrq dvvrfldwhg zlwk wkh Ihghudo Uhvhuyh V|vwhp1 Zhduh judwhixo wr Zlooldp Khonlh iru surylglqj wkh gdwd iru wkh Khonlh0Krrshu prgho> dqg wr UlfkdugEdloolh/ Fduor Eldqfkl/ Jlrujlr Fdo}rodul/ Mxold Fdpsrv/ Plnh Fohphqwv/ Uxvvhoo Gdylgvrq/ Ud| Idlu/Jldpslhur Jdoor/ Zlooldp Khonlh/ Gdoh Khqghuvrq/ Gdylg Khqgu|/ Shwhu Krrshu/ Gdylg Krzdug/Qhyd Nhuehvkldq/ Plfr Oruhwdq/ Mdphv PdfNlqqrq/ Mdq Pdjqxv/ Grxj PfPdqxv/ Jud|kdp Pl0}rq/ Jduu| Skloolsv/ Mhdq0Iudq�frlv Ulfkdug/ Jhrujh Wdxfkhq/ Whg Wuxpdq/ Nhq Zdoolv/ dqg wzrdqrq|prxv uhihuhhv iru ydoxdeoh frpphqwv dqg vxjjhvwlrqv1 Zh duh lqghewhg wr Oxfld Irvwhu/ QhgSuhvfrww/ dqg Proo| Zhw}ho iru h{fhoohqw uhvhdufk dvvlvwdqfh1 Wkh vhfrqg dxwkru judwhixoo| dfnqrzo0hgjhv wkh jhqhurxv krvslwdolw| ri wkh Ghsduwphqw ri Hfrqrplfv dw wkh Xqlyhuvlw| ri Fdqwhuexu|/Fkulvwfkxufk/ Qhz ]hdodqg/ zkhuh kh uhylvhg vrph ri wkh pdwhuldo khuhlq/ dqg wkh �qdqfldo vxs0sruw iurp d Ylvlwlqj Huvnlqh Ihoorzvkls/ zklfk idflolwdwhg ylvlwlqj wkh Xqlyhuvlw| ri Fdqwhuexu|1Wklv sdshu zdv suhvhqwhg dw wkh 4<<9 HF5 frqihuhqfh dqg zdv suhylrxvo| flufxodwhg xqghu wkh wlwoh_D Iudphzrun iru Vlpxodwhg dqg Dqdo|wlfdo Surshuwlhv ri Hfrqrplf Iruhfdvwv%1 Lw gudzv xsrqdqg uh0lqwhusuhwv uhvhdufk lq Hulfvvrq dqg Pdutxh} +4<;<, dqg Pdutxh} dqg Hulfvvrq +4<<3,1 Dooqxphulfdo uhvxowv zhuh rewdlqhg xvlqj WUROO Yhuvlrq 46/ Txdwwur Sur iru Zlqgrzv Yhuvlrq 813/dqg SfJlyh Surihvvlrqdo Yhuvlrq <= vhh Lqwh{ Vroxwlrqv +4<;<,/ Eruodqg +4<<6,/ dqg Grruqln dqgKhqgu| +4<<9,1 Wklv sdshu lv ehlqj vlpxowdqhrxvo| flufxodwhg dv Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Ilqdqfh GlvfxvvlrqSdshu Qr1 959 e| wkh Erdug ri Jryhuqruv ri wkh Ihghudo Uhvhuyh V|vwhp/ dqg dv Glvfxvvlrq SdshuQr1 <;45 e| wkh Ghsduwphqw ri Hfrqrplfv dw wkh Xqlyhuvlw| ri Fdqwhuexu|1 Wkhvh glvfxvvlrq sdshuvfdq eh rewdlqhg rq wkh ZruogZlgh Zhe dw zzz1erj1iue1ihg1xv2sxev2ligs24<<;29592ghidxow1kwpdqg zzz1hfrq1fdqwhuexu|1df1q}2gs4<<;1kwp uhvshfwlyho|1

Page 3: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

� W?|hL_�U|�L?

#itT�|i |�i �L*�4�?L�t *�|ih@|�hi L? |�i |�iLh) @?_ Th@U|�Ui Lu iUL?L4�U uLhiU@t|�

�?}c *�||*i igLh| �@t Mii? _i�L|i_ |L Lh}@?�3�?} t)t|i4@|�U@**) |�i �@h�L�t @tTiU|t Lu

}i?ih@|�?} @?_ �?|ihThi|�?} t�U� uLhiU@t|t� ,�i? tLc |�i _�gihi?| @tTiU|t �?�L*�i_

@hi �?|�4@|i*) hi*@|i_c @?_ i T*L�|�?} t�U� �?|ihhi*@|�L?t��Tt i*�U�_@|it Thi��L�t*)

?i}*iU|i_ ThLTih|�it Lu uLhiU@t|t� �UULh_�?}*)c |��t T@Tih @_�@?Uit @ |h�T@h|�|i uh@4i�

�Lh! Lu _it�}?c i�@*�@|�L?c @?_ TLt|�i�@*�@|�L? @?@*)t�t� A�iti UL?UiT|t @hi ?L|

?i� �? |�i4ti*�itc @?_ |�i) �@�i Mii? Thi��L�t*) _�tU�tti_ �? @ ?@hhL�ih UL?|i |

uLh �L?|i �@h*L @?@*)t�t� A�i U�hhi?| T@Tih }i?ih@*�3it |�iti UL?UiT|t @?_ @TT*�it

|�i4 |L uLhiU@t|�?}c hi��?|ihThi|�?} |�i �@h�L�t @tTiU|t Lu uLhiU@t|�?} @t T@h|t Lu @

��L*i �?t|i@_ Lu @t @ UL**iU|�L? Lu *LLti*) hi*@|i_ |@t!t� W? tL _L�?}c |��t T@Tih _h@�t

|L}i|�ih |�iLhi|�U@*c UL4T�|@|�L?@*c i4T�h�U@*c @?_ TL*�U) @tTiU|t Lu uLhiU@t|�?} �? @

�?��i_ @TThL@U��

6L�h i @4T*it ��}�*�}�| |�i �@*�i Lu |�i ThLTLti_ uh@4i�Lh!G |�i TLtt�M*i ?L?�

4L?L|L?�U�|) Lu 4i@? t^�@hi uLhiU@t| ihhLht �? |�i uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L?c |�i TLtt�M*i

?L?i �t|i?Ui Lu 4i@? t^�@hi uLhiU@t| ihhLht uLh Uih|@�? it|�4@|�L? t@4T*i t�3it @?_

uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L?tc |�i �?Uih|@�?|) @h�t�?} uhL4 �L?|i �@h*L t�4�*@|�L? Lu 4i@? t^�@hi

uLhiU@t| ihhLht ��i? i @U| @?@*)|�U@* hit�*|t @hi �?@�@�*@M*ic @?_ @ T@h@**i* �?Uih|@�?|)

�? it|�4@|�?} |�i M�@t uhL4 �t�?} _i|ih4�?�t|�U uLhiU@t|t uhL4 ?L?*�?i@h 4L_i*t� ,@U�

U@ti �t Lu t�Mt|@?|��i iUL?L4�U @?_ 4i|�L_L*L}�U@* �?|ihit|c @?_ i@U� t�L�t �L� |�i

ThLTLti_ uh@4i�Lh! U*@h��it @?_ �4ThL�it �TL? i �t|�?} hit�*|t @?_ |iU�?�^�it�

A��t T@Tih �t Lh}@?�3i_ @t uL**L�t� 5iU|�L? 2 _i�i*LTt |�i }i?ih@* uh@4i�Lh!c

���U� T@h|�|�L?t uLhiU@t| @U|���|�it �?|L _it�}?c i�@*�@|�L?c @?_ TLt|�i�@*�@|�L? @?@�

*)t�t� #it�}? �?U*�_it tTiU��U@|�L? Lu |�i 4L_i* uLh uLhiU@t|�?} @?_ ti*iU|�L? Lu |�i

uLhiU@t|<t U�@h@U|ih�t|�Ut Lu �?|ihit|� A��tc _it�}? �?U*�_it U�L�Ui Lu |�i �@h�@M*it Mi�

�?} uLhiU@t|c |�i uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L?c |�i 4L_i*<t tTiU��U@|�L?c @?_ it|�4@|�L? 4i|�L_�

,�@*�@|�L? tTiU��it �L� |�i uLhiU@t|t @hi @U|�@**) }i?ih@|i_c @?_ �?U*�_it |�i U�L�Ui

Lu @?@*)|�U@* Lh ?�4ih�U@* |iU�?�^�it @?_ |�i |)Ti Lu @TThL �4@|�L? �ti_� �Lt|�

i�@*�@|�L? @?@*)t�t �?U*�_it Thiti?|@|�L? @?_ t�44@h�3@|�L? Lu |�i uLhiU@t|t�

5iU|�L?t � @?_ e �**�t|h@|i |�i Th�?U�T*it Lu _it�}?c i�@*�@|�L?c @?_ TLt|�i�@*�@|�L?

@?@*)t�t uLh tL4i |�4i�tih�it 4L_i*t |�@| �@�i Mii? t|�_�i_ Thi��L�t*)� A�@| U�L�Ui

i4T�@t�3it �L� i �t|�?} hit�*|t U@? Mi Mi?i�U�@**) hi��?|ihThi|i_ �? |�i ThLTLti_

uh@4i�Lh!� 5iU|�L? � Thiti?|t @?@*)|�U@* ThLTih|�it Lu |�i 4i@? t^�@hi uLhiU@t| ih�

hLh E�56,� uLh L?i�t|iT @?_ 4�*|��t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|t uhL4 �iU|Lh @�|Lhi}hitt�L?tc

hi*)�?} L? @TThL �4@|�L?t _�i |L 5U�4�_| E�b.e� @?_ �@�**�i E�b.bM�� `��*i |�i

}i?ih@* uLh4�*@ uLh |�i �56, �t �tiu�* uLh i4T�h�U@* @TT*�U@|�L?t ��|��? |��t U*@tt Lu

4L_i*tc 4@?) Lu �|t ThLTih|�it U@? Mi 4Lt| i@t�*) �?_iht|LL_ uLh @ tTiU�@* U@tic |�i

�?��@h�@|i �ht|�Lh_ih @�|Lhi}hitt��i d�+E��o ThLUitt� �t _i|@�*i_ Mi*L�c 5iU|�L? e _�t�

U�ttit |�hii TL|i?|�@* ThLTih|�it Lu |�i �56, uLh |�i �+E�� 4L_i*G ?L?4L?L|L?�U�|)c

?L?i �t|i?Uic @?_ �?Uih|@�?|) �? �|t it|�4@|�L? M) �L?|i �@h*L t�4�*@|�L?�

Page 4: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

6�ht|c 5iU|�L? e�� hi��?|ihThi|t OL^�ic �@}?�tc @?_ �it@h@?<t E�bHH� i @U| ?��

4ih�U@* hit�*|t L? |�i �56, uLh @? �+E�� 4L_i* ��|�L�| @? �?|ihUiT|� �i@? t^�@hi

uLhiU@t| ihhLht @hi UL44L?*) ��i�i_ @t Mi�?} 4L?L|L?�U �? |�i uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L?�

OL�i�ihc |�i) ?ii_ ?L| Mi tLc @?_ ��i|�ih |�i) @hi _iTi?_t L? _)?@4�Ut @?_ L?

|�i �?Uih|@�?|) �? it|�4@|�?} |�i uLhiU@t| 4L_i*<t ULi�U�i?|t� �L?4L?L|L?�U�|) �@t

�44i_�@|i UL?ti^�i?Uit uLh TL*�U)c @t |�i �56, 4@) @U��i�i @ 4@ �4�4 @| uLhi�

U@t| �Lh�3L?t |)T�U@**) Lu �?|ihit|c i�}�c L?i |L |�L )i@ht L�|� �L?4L?L|L?�U�|) �?

|�i �56, U@? Mi _��U�*| |L �?|ihThi| L? �|t L�?c @t ?L|i_ M) OL^�ic �@}?�tc

@?_ �it@h@? E�bHH�� A�@| t@�_c ?L?4L?L|L?�U�|) �t i@t�*) �?_iht|LL_ |�hL�}� TLt|�

t�4�*@|�L? @?@*)t�t �? UL?��?U|�L? ��|� |�i E@TThL �4@|i� @?@*)|�U@* uLh4�*@ uLh |�i

�56, uhL4 5iU|�L? ��

5iUL?_c 5iU|�L? e�2 @?@*)3it |�i �56, Lu |�i �+E�� 4L_i* �t�?} 4@ �4�4 *�!i�

*��LL_ it|�4@|�L?� �t OL^�ic �@}?�tc @?_ �it@h@? E�bHH� t�L�c |�i �56, _Lit ?L|

i �t| Mi)L?_ @ Uih|@�? �Lh�3L? ��i? |�i �+E�� 4L_i* �t it|�4@|i_ M) *i@t| t^�@hit�

A��t ThLM*i4 _�t@TTi@ht uLh |h�?U@|i_ it|�4@|Lhtc t�U� @t 4@ �4�4 *�!i*��LL_� , �

@U| ?�4ih�U@* tL*�|�L?t uLh |�i �56, @hi ?L| !?L�? uLh |�iti |h�?U@|i_ it|�4@|Lhtc

tL uLhiU@t| i�@*�@|�L? �t M) �L?|i �@h*L� A�i @TThL �4@|i @?@*)|�U@* tL*�|�L? uLh

|�i �56, uhL4 5iU|�L? � @�_t �?|ihThi|�?} |�i �L?|i �@h*L hit�*|tc T@h@**i*�?} �|t

UL4T@h�tL? �? 5iU|�L? e�� |L |�i i @U| ?�4ih�U@* hit�*|t uhL4 OL^�ic �@}?�tc @?_

�it@h@? E�bHH�� A�i uh@4i�Lh! �? 5iU|�L? 2 �_i?|��it |�i ?ii_ uLh @UU�h@|i �L?|i

�@h*L L�|UL4itc tL UL?|hL* �@h�@|it @hi i4T*L)i_ uLh �@h�@?Ui hi_�U|�L?�

A��h_c 5iU|�L? e�� hi�i @4�?it �hU�|| @?_ `�?L!�h<t E�bSb� �L?|i �@h*L t|�_)

Lu |�i �+E�� 4L_i* ��|� @? �?|ihUiT|� `�i? i @U| @?@*)|�U@* hit�*|t @hi *@U!�?}c

|�iLhi|�U@* ThLTih|�it Lu uLhiU@t|t @hi Lu|i? @tUih|@�?i_ |�hL�}� �L?|i �@h*L t�4�*@�

|�L?� A�@| t�4�*@|�L?c ^�@ t�4�*@|�L?c �?|hL_�Uit �?Uih|@�?|) �?|L |�i hit�*|t� A��t

U@*U�*@|�L? ELh i�@*�@|�L?� 4@) i�|�ih U*@h�u) Lh LMtU�hi |�i uLhiU@t|t< �?_ih*)�?}

ThLTih|�itc _iTi?_�?} �TL? |�i T@h|�U�*@h t�4�*@|�L? ThLUi_�hit i4T*L)i_� �t �?

5iU|�L? e�2c |�i @?@*)|�U@* ThLTih|�it uhL4 5iU|�L? � �i*T �?|ihThi| |�i �L?|i �@h*L

hit�*|t� W? @** |�hii t�MtiU|�L?t Lu 5iU|�L? ec |�i @t)4T|L|�U �56, U@T|�hit 4�U�

Lu |�i �@h�@|�L? @UhLtt i Tih�4i?|tc @?_ |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, _Lit i�i? Mi||ih �?

_L�?} tL� A�i�h _i}hii Lu �?@UU�h@U) hi*@|��i |L |�i i @U| �56, @TTi@ht hi*@|i_ |L

�L� U*Lti UL?_�|�L?t uLh |�i i �t|i?Ui Lu |�i i @U| �56, @hi |L Mi�?} ��L*@|i_ ��i?

it|�4@|�?} M) *i@t| t^�@hit�

5iU|�L? D UL?t�_iht t� 4L_i*t Lu N�5� �4TLh|t @?_ i TLh|tc tL4i Lu ���U� �@�i

Mii? �ti_ �? Th@U|�U@* uLhiU@t|�?} i ihU�tit @| |�i 6i_ih@* +itih�i �L@h_� A�iti 4L_�

i*t< uLhiU@t|t _�gih uhL4 |�Lti Lu |�i i@h*�ih tiU|�L?t �? |�hii hitTiU|tG |�i 4L_i*t @hi

?L?*�?i@h h@|�ih |�@? *�?i@h( |�i _@|@ @hi i4T�h�U@* h@|�ih |�@? t�4�*@|i_( @?_ |�i

LM�iU| Lu @?@*)t�t �t |�i ?L?*�?i@h�|) M�@t @h�t�?} uhL4 _i|ih4�?�t|�U uLhiU@t|tc h@|�ih

|�@? |�i �56,� ,�i? @t)4T|L|�U @?@*)|�U@* tL*�|�L?t @hi ?L| �t�@**) @�@�*@M*i uLh

?L?*�?i@h 4L_i*tc tL |�i @?@*)t�t �? 5iU|�L? D �t i?|�hi*) M) �L?|i �@h*L� `��*i ?L?�

*�?i@h�|) M�@tit @hi �i**�!?L�?c i �t|�?} @?@*)tit |)T�U@**) �ti �?i�U�i?| |iU�?�^�it

2

Page 5: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

�? ^�@?|�u)�?} |�i4� �t �? 5iU|�L? e�2c 4Lhi i�U�i?| |iU�?�^�it @hi hi@_�*) @TT@hi?|c

L?Ui i�@*�@|�L? �t ��i�i_ �? @ }i?ih@* uh@4i�Lh! uLh �?|ihThi|�?} |�i ThLTih|�it Lu

iUL?L4�U uLhiU@t|t� �L?|h@t|�?} ��|� 5iU|�L? e�2c |�i �@h�@?Ui�hi_�U|�L? |iU�?�^�i

�t @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it h@|�ih |�@? UL?|hL* �@h�@|itc �? T@h| MiU@�ti |�i @t)4T|L|�U

tL*�|�L? uLh |�i ?L?*�?i@h�|) M�@t �t ?L| !?L�?� ,�U�i?U) }@�?t uhL4 |�i @?|�|�i|�U

�@h�@|it h@?}i uhL4 e�uL*_ |L L�ih 2fff�uL*_c �**�t|h@|�?} �L� �4TLh|@?| }LL_ ?�4ih�

�U@* |iU�?�^�it U@? Mic i�i? ��i? |�i �?_ih*)�?} ThLM*i4 �t �?�ihi?|*) @?@*)|�U@*�

5iU|�L? S UL?U*�_it�

2 6LhiU@t| �i|�L_L*L})

6LhiU@t|�?} �t Lu|i? ��i�i_ M) iUL?L4�t|t @t @ t�4T*i i |i?t�L? Lu 4L_i* it|�4@|�L?c

�? ���U� �||i_ �@*�it @hi UL?t|h�U|i_ uhL4 |�i it|�4@|i_ 4L_i* L�ih @ t@4T*i ?L|

�ti_ �? it|�4@|�L?� OL�i�ihc �? Lh_ih |L �?_iht|@?_ Mi||ih |�i ThLTih|�it Lu uLhiU@t|t

@?_ uLhiU@t| ihhLhtc �| �t �i*Tu�* |L _���_i |�i 4iU�@?�Ut Lu uLhiU@t|�?} �?|L |�hii T@h|tG

�� _it�}?c �? ���U� |�i U�@h@U|ih�t|�Ut Lu |�i uLhiU@t|t @?_ |�i hi*@|�L?t��T Lu

�?|ihit| @hi tTiU��i_(

2� i�@*�@|�L?c ��ihi�? |�i uLhiU@t|t @hi }i?ih@|i_( @?_

�� TLt|�i�@*�@|�L? @?@*)t�tc �? ���U� |�i uLhiU@t|t @hi Thiti?|i_�

Oihic Ri�@*�@|�L?� |@!it �|t UL44L? 4i@?�?} R�Lh!�?} L�| |�i ?�4ih�U@* �@*�i Lu�c

h@|�ih |�@? Ei�}�� R��_}�?} |�i �@*�i Lu�� A@M*i � *�t|t _i|@�*t uLh i@U� Lu |�iti |�hii

U@|i}Lh�it� `��*i |��t uh@4i�Lh! �t @TT*�i_ |L uLhiU@t|�?} �ihic �| UL�*_ Mi �ti_ |L

�?|ihThi| @?) ThLTih|�it Lu iUL?L4�U 4L_i*t�

A��t |�hii�uL*_ T@h|�|�L? }i?ih@*�3it _�tU�tt�L? �? Oi?_h) E�bHe� @?_ ,h�UttL?

E�bHS� L? i Tih�4i?|@* _it�}?c t�4�*@|�L?c @?_ TLt|�t�4�*@|�L? @?@*)t�t uLh �L?|i

�@h*L t|�_�it� `��*i uLhiU@t|t 4@) �?�L*�i �L?|i �@h*L t�4�*@|�L? @t @? i�@*�@|�L?

|iU�?�^�ic |�i) 4@) @*tL ELh �?t|i@_� hi*) L? @?@*)|�U@* U@*U�*@|�L?t Lh ?�4ih�U@* �?|i�

}h@|�L?� W? @?) U@tic |��t uh@4i�Lh! �i*Tt �_i?|�u) @?_ U*@h�u) ThLTih|�it Lu uLhiU@t|t

|�@| @hi L|�ih��ti 4�tti_ Lh |�@| }i?ih@|i T�33*it� 5iU|�L?t 2��c 2�2c @?_ 2�� _�tU�tt

|�i |�hii @tTiU|t Lu uLhiU@t|�?} @| @ }i?ih@* *i�i*c �t�?} A@M*i � @t @ }��_i� A@M*i 2

EMi*L�� }��it T@h|�U�*@ht uLh |�i 4L_i*t @?_ uLhiU@t|t i @4�?i_ �? |�i hi4@�?�?} tiU�

|�L?t @?_ �?_�U@|it �L� |��t uh@4i�Lh! @�_t �? |�i UL?t|h�U|�L? @?_ �?|ihThi|@|�L? Lu

|�i @ttLU�@|i_ hit�*|t�

2�� #it�}?

6LhiU@t| _it�}? tTiU��it |�i hi*@|�L?t��T Lu �?|ihit| uLh }i?ih@|�?} |�i uLhiU@t|t @?_

|�i U�@h@U|ih�t|�Ut Lu |�i uLhiU@t|t Mi�?} i @4�?i_� A��t t�MtiU|�L? UL?t�_iht |�iti

|�L @tTiU|t Lu _it�}?�

Page 6: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

Wdeoh 41 D Iudphzrun iru Jhqhudwlqj dqg Lqwhusuhwlqj Iruhfdvwv

GhvljqUhodwlrqvkls Fkdudfwhulvwlfv Hydoxdwlrq Srvw0hydoxdwlrqri Lqwhuhvw ri wkh Iruhfdvwv Dqdo|vlv

Glphqvlrq Glphqvlrq Whfkqltxh Suhvhqwdwlrqvlqjoh htxdwlrq vfdodu dqdo|wlfdo dojheudlfpxowlsoh htxdwlrqv yhfwru qxphulfdo judsklfdo

Prqwh Fduor wdexoduFrpsohwhqhvv qdlyh uhvsrqvh vxuidfhixoo v|vwhp dqwlwkhwlf yduldwhvvxev|vwhp frqwuro yduldwhv

errwvwuds

Whpsrudo irup Iruhfdvw krul}rq Qdwxuh Vxppdul}dwlrqvwdwlf rqh0vwhs dkhdg ^ghwhuplqlvwlf` qrqhg|qdplf pxowl0vwhs dkhdg dv|pswrwlf uhvsrqvh vxuidfhvL+3, dssur{lpdwh whvw vwdwlvwlfvlqwhjudwhg R+q3�,

kljkhu rughuIxqfwlrqdo irup Wudqvirupdwlrqv h{dfwolqhdu olqhduqrqolqhdu qrqolqhdu

Glvwulexwlrqv Glvwulexwlrqdo surshuw|huuru phdq +dqg eldv,frh�flhqw hvwlpdwhv yduldqfh +dqg PVIH,lqlwldo frqglwlrqv h{lvwhqfh ri prphqwv

rwkhuHvwlpdwlrqROVPOrwkhu

e

Page 7: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

AL @UUL44L_@|i @ ��_i h@?}i Lu TLtt�M�*�|�itc |�i tTiU��U@|�L? Lu |�i it|�4@|i_

4L_i* E|�i hi*@|�L?t��T Lu �?|ihit|� �t }i?ih@* @| |�i L�|ti|G

sE+|c +|3�c 5|c wc �|� ' f c | ' �c � � � c ?n 7 � E��

A�i u�?U|�L? sE�� �t @? 6�� �iU|Lh Lu i^�@|�L?t �?U*�_i_ �? |�i 4L_i*c +| �t @? 6��

�iU|Lh Lu i?_L}i?L�t �@h�@M*it @| Tih�L_ |c 5| �t @ ^� � �iU|Lh Lu E@tt�4i_*)� �i@!*)

i L}i?L�t �@h�@M*itc w �t @ S � � �iU|Lh Lu T@h@4i|ihtc @?_ �| �t @? 6� � �iU|Lh Lu

_�t|�hM@?Uitc ��Lti @tt�4i_ _�t|h�M�|�L? �t tTiU��i_ @t T@h| Lu |�i hi*@|�L?t��T Lu

�?|ihit| EA@M*i ��� A�i �ht| ? LMtih�@|�L?t @hi �ti_ �? it|�4@|�L?c @?_ |�i hi4@�?�?}

7 @hi uLhiU@t|� W? _itUh�M�?} uLhiU@t| ThLUi_�hitc �| �t UL?�i?�i?| |L tL*�i E�� i T*�U�|*)

uLh +| @?_ U�@?}i |�i |�4i t�MtUh�T| | |L ? n rc tL |�@| uLhiU@t|t @hi U@*U�*@|i_ uLh

TLt�|��i r� A��t |h@?tuLh4i_ hiThiti?|@|�L? �t �h�||i? @tG

+?nr ' }E+?nr3�c 5?nrc wc �?nr� c r ' �� ?c � � � c��c fc �c � � � c 7 c E2�

��ihi }E�� �t @ t��|@M*i hi_i�?�|�L? Lu sE�� @ML�i� W? Th@U|�Uic E2� 4@) Mi @ t�?}*i

i^�@|�L? Lh 4�*|�T*i i^�@|�L?tc ��|� Lh ��|�L�| i L}i?L�t �@h�@M*it @?_%Lh _)?@4�Utc

@?_ i�|�ih *�?i@h Lh ?L?*�?i@h� 6Lh 4�*|��t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|t Er : ��c 5| �t @tt�4i_

t|hL?}*) @t �i** @t �i@!*) i L}i?L�tc Lh @ 4L_i* uLh 5| �t �ti_ �? |�i uLhiU@t|�?}

ThLUittc �? igiU| i4Mi__�?} 5 �? +( tii ,?}*ic Oi?_h)c @?_ +�U�@h_ E�bH���

5iU|�L?t ��D UL?t�_ih ?�4ihL�t EM�| ?L| i �@�t|��i� UL4M�?@|�L?t Lu |�iti TLtt��

M�*�|�it� Oihi @?_ Mi*L�c @?@*)|�U@* i TLt�|�L?t @hi |)T�U@**) uLh r�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|t

L?*)� OL�i�ihc |�i uLh4@* t|h�U|�hi _i�i*LTi_ @TT*�it |L ML|� r�t|iT @?_ L?i�t|iT

@�i@_ uLhiU@t|tc @?_ ML|� |)Tit Lu uLhiU@t|t @hi i @4�?i_ �? 5iU|�L?t ��D�

A�hL�}�L�|c E2� �t @tt�4i_ |L Mi |�i _@|@ }i?ih@|�L? ThLUitt @t �i** @t |�i

iUL?L4i|h�U 4L_i*� A�i uh@4i�Lh! �? A@M*i � UL�*_ @**L� uLh @ _�t|�?U|�L? Mi|�ii?

|�i _@|@ }i?ih@|�L? ThLUitt @?_ |�i 4L_i*� #L�?} tL �L�*_ hit�*| �? @? @__�|�L?@*

UL*�4? �?_ih R_it�}?� �? A@M*i � ��|� i?|h�it T@h@**i*�?} |�Lti �?_ih Rhi*@|�L?t��T

Lu �?|ihit|�� `��*i |��t _�t|�?U|�L? �L�*_ tih�i ?L �44i_�@|i T�hTLtic �| �t Uh�U�@* uLh

uLhiU@t|�?} �? }i?ih@*� 5ii �*i4i?|t @?_ Oi?_h) E�bbSc �bbH@c �bbHM� @?_ Oi?_h)

E�bb.� L? |�i }i?ih�U igiU|t Lu 4L_i* 4�t�tTiU��U@|�L? L? uLhiU@t|�?}c @?_ B@**L

E�bb�c �bbS� L? |�i tTiU��U igiU|t Lu _@|@ 4�t�4i@t�hi4i?| |�hL�}� ThL��t�L?@* _@|@�

A�i U�@h@U|ih�t|�Ut Lu |�i uLhiU@t|t �?U*�_i |�i uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L?c |h@?tuLh4@|�L?t

Lu +?nr |L LM|@�? |�i @U|�@* uLhiU@t|t E@?_ �i?Ui |�i _�4i?t�L? Lu |�i uLhiU@t|t�c @?_

|�i _�t|h�M�|�L?@* ThLTih|) Lu �?|ihit|� �) @tt�4T|�L?c E2� �t |�i ThLUitt }i?ih@|�?}

+?nrc tL E2� ?@|�h@**) tih�it uLh }i?ih@|�?} e+?nr E|�i uLhiU@t| Lu +?nr�c }��i? tL4i

U�L�Ui Lu @tt�4T|�L?t @ML�| +?nr3�c 5?nrc wc @?_ �?nr� A�i T@h|�U�*@h U�L�Ui @_LT|i_

_i|ih4�?it |�i |)Ti Lu uLhiU@t|� Wu |�i @U|�@* �@*�i Lu +?nr3� �t �ti_ �? }E��c |�i? |�i

7 uLhiU@t|t ie+?nr( r ' �c � � � c 7j @hi L?i�t|iT @�i@_c ��i�c uLhiU@t|t Lu |�i i?_L}i?L�t

�@h�@M*it @hi UL?_�|�L?@* L? |�i LMtih�i_ i?_L}i?L�t �@h�@M*it *@}}i_ L?i Tih�L_�

�*|ih?@|��i*)c |�i Thi��L�t uLhiU@t| e+?nr3� UL�*_ hiT*@Ui +?nr3�c M�| ��|� LMtih�i_ +?

D

Page 8: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

t|@h|�?} |�i uLhiU@t| ThLUitt� A��t ti^�i?|�@* tL*�|�L? uLh e+?nr �? E2� }i?ih@|it @ ti|

Lu r�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|t Er ' �c � � � c 7��

A�i �@h�@M*i 5?nr 4@) Mi �i@!*) Lh t|hL?}*) i L}i?L�t �? u@U|c @?_ |�i 4L_i*ih

4@) EULhhiU|*) Lh �?ULhhiU|*)� @tt�4i tL4i i L}i?i�|) t|@|�t uLh 5� ,�i? �u 5 �t

t|hL?}*) i L}i?L�tc i�|�ih @U|�@* Lh uLhiU@t| �@*�it Lu 5 4�}�| @TTi@h �? }E��c ��ihi|�i uLhiU@t| �@*�it �L�*_ UL?|h�M�|i @__�|�L?@* �?Uih|@�?|)c ML|� MiU@�ti 5 �L�*_ Mi

uLhiU@t| h@|�ih |�@? !?L�? @?_ MiU@�ti |�i uLhiU@t|�?} 4L_i* uLh 5 �L�*_ *�!i*) Mi

it|�4@|i_�

6Lh @ }��i? uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L? r @?_ @ }��i? |hi@|4i?| Lu +?nr3� @?_ 5?nrc |�i U�L�Ui

Lu w @?_ �?nr �? }E�� u�**) tTiU��it |�i uLhiU@t| ThLUi_�hi� ��4ihL�t U�L�Uit Lu w @?_

�?nr i �t|c |�i 4Lt| UL44L? Mi�?} R_i|ih4�?�t|�U t�4�*@|�L?� E�?nr @?_ w � i_c i�}�c

@| �?nr ' f @?_ w ' ew� @?_ Rt|LU�@t|�U t�4�*@|�L?� Ei�|�ih �?nr h@?_L4 @?_ w ' ewcLh �?nr @?_ w ML|� h@?_L4�� 5iU|�L?t � @?_ e uLU�t L? ��t| _i|ih4�?�t|�U t�4�*@|�L?tc

��ihi@t 5iU|�L? D UL4T@hit |�i ?�4ih�U@* tL*�|�L?t uLh ML|� |)Tit Lu t�4�*@|�L?t�

`��*i |�i iUL?L4i|h�U 4L_i* }i?ih@|it |�i uLhiU@t| e+?nrc iUL?L4�U �?|ihit| 4@)

Mi �? tL4i |h@?tuLh4@|�L? Lu e+?nrc @?_ �? tL4i ThLTih|) Lu |�@| |h@?tuLh4@|�L?�

5TiU��U@**)c UL?t�_ih @ *�?i@h |h@?tuLh4@|�L? � Lu e+?nr @?_ @ }i?ih@* ThLTih|) �E���EA�i @tt�4T|�L? Lu *�?i@h�|) �t ��|�L�| *Ltt Lu }i?ih@*�|)c ?L|�?} |�@| }E�� �t @hM�|h@h�*)?L?*�?i@h�� W? |��t UL?|i |c |�i LM�iU| Lu |�i uLhiU@t| @?@*)t�t �t |�i i TiU|@|�L? >?nrG

>?nr � H d�E� �e+?nr�o ']]

�E� �e+?nr� � vE�c ew� � _� � _ew c E��

��ihi HE�� �t |�i i TiU|@|�L?t LTih@|Lhc vE�c �� �t |�i �L�?| _i?t�|) Lu � d_i�?i_ @t

E�?n�c � � � c �?nr��o @?_ ewc e+?nr3� �t �4T*�U�|*) @ u�?U|�L? Lu ew @?_ �c @?_ |�i ti*iU|�L?

Lu � @?_ �E�� 4@) @giU| ��i|�ih Lh ?L| |�i i TiU|@|�L? >?nr i �t|t� A�i tiU|�L?t

Mi*L� uLU�t L? @tTiU|t Lu |�i �ht| |�L 4L4i?|t Lu |�i uLhiU@t|tG |�i 4i@? t^�@hi

uLhiU@t| ihhLhc @?_ |�i M�@t Lu _i|ih4�?�t|�U uLhiU@t|t� W? 5iU|�L?t e�� @?_ e�2c + �t @

t�?}*i �@h�@M*ic � ' �c @?_ �E� �e+?nr� �t e+2?nrc 4@!�?} >?nr |�i �56, Lu |�i �@h�@M*i

�? |�i 4L_i*� 5iU|�L? e�� @*tL i @4�?it |�i �56,c M�| uLh L?i Lu |�L �@h�@M*it �?

@ M��@h�@|i �iU|Lh + M) �@��?} � ' E� f��� W? 5iU|�L? Dc �E� �e+?nr� ' � �e+?nrc @?_� ti*iU|t L?i �@h�@M*i uhL4 @ 4�*|��@h�@|i �iU|Lh Lu uLhiU@t|t e+?nrc tL >?nr �t |�i

�?M�@ti_ uLhiU@t| Lu |�i �@h�@M*i ti*iU|i_� ,^�@|�L? E�� }i?ih@*�3it |L @**L� *�?i@h

UL4M�?@|�L?t Lu uLhiU@t|t uhL4 _�gihi?| uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L?tc @t �? �@4TLt E�bb2�c ��L

UL?t�_iht �?|ih @*�@ ^�@h|ih*) uLhiU@t|t uhL4 4L?|�*) 4L_i*t� �i*L�c uLh ?L|@|�L?@*

t�4T*�U�|)c � �t @tt�4i_ |L Mi |�i �_i?|�|) 4@|h� �?*itt i T*�U�|*) hi^��hi_ L|�ih��ti�

2�2 ,�@*�@|�L?

, @U| @?@*)|�U@* tL*�|�L?t |L E�� @hi !?L�? uLh L?*) �ih) t�4T*i 4L_i*t� �*|ih?@|��it

|L t�U� tL*�|�L?t �?U*�_i ?�4ih�U@* �?|i}h@|�L? E5iU|�L? e���c @?@*)|�U@* @TThL �4@�

|�L?t E5iU|�L? ��c �L?|i �@h*L t�4�*@|�L? E5iU|�L?t e�D�c @?_ MLL|t|h@TT�?} Etii

S

Page 9: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

,uhL? E�bH2�c �i|iht @?_ 6hii_4@? E�bHD�c @?_ O@** E�bbe� �?|ih @*�@�� ,@U� @T�

ThL@U� �@t �|t L�? t|hi?}|�t @?_ �i@!?ittit� Nt�?} 4�*|�T*i @TThL@U�it uLh @ }��i?

ThLM*i4c @t �t _L?i Mi*L�c i |h@U|t i@U� @TThL@U�<t @_�@?|@}it ���*i @4i*�Lh@|�?}

|�i @ttLU�@|i_ t�Lh|UL4�?}t� �__�|�L?@**)c @*}Lh�|�4t 4@) Mi @�@�*@M*i uLh �4ThL��?}

|�i UL4T�|@|�L?@* i�U�i?U) ��|� ���U� E�� �t tL*�i_� 6Lh �L?|i �@h*L t�4�*@|�L?

�? T@h|�U�*@hc 5iU|�L?t e�2 @?_ D i4T*L) |�L }i?ih�U �@h�@?Ui�hi_�U|�L? |iU�?�^�itc

UL?|hL* �@h�@|it @?_ @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it�

6Lh i@U� @*|ih?@|��i |iU�?�^�ic @? @TT*�U@|�L? 4�}�| �}?Lhi Lh @UUL�?| uLh |�i

�?Uih|@�?|) @h�t�?} uhL4 � @?_%Lh ew� A�iti |�L tL�hUit Lu �?Uih|@�?|) @hi _i?L|i_

R�?�ihi?|� @?_ RULi�U�i?|�� � |iU�?�^�i �}?Lh�?} ML|� tL�hUit Lu �?Uih|@�?|) �t R_i�

|ih4�?�t|�U�� � |iU�?�^�i @UUL�?|�?} uLh �?�ihi?| �?Uih|@�?|) @*L?i �t R@t)4T|L|�U�c

tL�U@**i_ MiU@�ti |�i �?Uih|@�?|) uhL4 � @giU|t |�i _�t|h�M�|�L? Lu |�i uLhiU@t| ihhLhe+?nr � +?nrc i�i? ��i? |�i it|�4@|�L? t@4T*i t�3i ? �t *@h}i� Wu @ |iU�?�^�i �?ULhTL�

h@|it @| *i@t| |�i *�4�|�?} _�t|h�M�|�L? Lu ew @t �i** @t �?�ihi?| �?Uih|@�?|)c |�i? |�i

|iU�?�^�i �t R@TThL �4@|i��

,�i? @| |��t t|@}ic |�i uh@4i�Lh! �? A@M*i � ThL��_it _�hiU| �?t�}�| �?|L |�i ?@|�hi

Lu t|LU�@t|�U t�4�*@|�L? Lu uLhiU@t|t� A�@| t|LU�@t|�U t�4�*@|�L? �t @�4i_ @| tL*��?}

@ ?L?t|LU�@t|�U ThLM*i4c ?@4i*) E��c ���U� �|ti*u 4@) Mi @?@*)|�U@**) �?|h@U|@M*i�

W? |�@| *�}�|c �| �t ��}�*) _it�h@M*i |L @_LT| UL4T�|@|�L?@**) i�U�i?| @*}Lh�|�4t uLh

t|LU�@t|�U t�4�*@|�L?c i�}�c @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it @?_ UL?|hL* �@h�@|it� 5�U� �@h�@?Ui�

hi_�U|�L? |iU�?�^�it @�4 |L hi_�Ui |�i �L?|i �@h*L t@4T*�?} �@h�@M�*�|) �?|hL_�Ui_

M) U�@?}�?} |�i ?L?t|LU�@t|�U ThLM*i4 E�� |L �|t t|LU�@t|�U @?@*L}�i� 5ii O@44iht*i)

@?_ O@?_tUL4M E�bSe� @?_ Oi?_h) E�bHe� uLh u�h|�ih _�tU�tt�L?c @?_ Oi?_h) @?_

Ah��i_� E�b.2� @?_ Oi?_h) @?_ O@hh�tL? E�b.e� uLh i@h*) i @4T*it �t�?} @?|�|�i|�U

�@h�@|it @?_ UL?|hL* �@h�@|it �? |�i iUL?L4i|h�Ut *�|ih@|�hi�

2�� �Lt|�i�@*�@|�L? �?@*)t�t

�?Ui |�i uLhiU@t|t Lh |�i�h U�@h@U|ih�t|�Ut �@�i Mii? U@*U�*@|i_c tL4i uLh4 Lu Thiti?�

|@|�L? �t @_LT|i_c ��|� |@M*it @?_ }h@T�t Mi�?} UL44L? 4L_it� �|�ih TLtt�M�*�|�it

i �t| @?_c i�i? uLh }h@T�t @?_ |@M*itc ML|� R}LL_� @?_ RM@_� Thiti?|@|�L?t @hi ui@�

t�M*i� A�u|i E�bH�c �bbfc �bb.� t�L�t �L� t4@** 4�*|�T*it Lu |@M*it @?_ }h@T�t U@?

�4ThL�i Thiti?|@|�L?( Uu� |�i �}�hit Mi*L�� 5L4i|�4itc ThLTih|�it Lu uLhiU@t|t @hi

t�44@h�3i_c @t �? ��L� E�bSf� t|@|�t|�Ut @?_ uLhiU@t|�i?UL4T@tt�?} t|@|�t|�Ut( tii

��L?} @?_ Oi?_h) E�bHS�c 6@�h @?_ 5��**ih E�bHb�c w� @?_ ��3L? E�bb��c ,h�UttL?

E�bb2�c @?_ ,h�UttL? @?_ �@h^�i3 E�bb�� L? |�i *@||ih��

4Lq0vdpsoh hqfrpsdvvlqj vwdwlvwlfv duh dovr ihdvleoh/ dv lq Ilvkhu dqg Zdoolv +4<<3,/ ehlqj ri wkh

irup vxjjhvwhg e| Gdylgvrq dqg PdfNlqqrq +4<;4, dqg Pl}rq dqg Ulfkdug +4<;9,/ qrwlqj Sdjdq

+4<;<,1

.

Page 10: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

� �56,t uLh ViU|Lh ��|Lhi}hitt��i �L_i*t

�i@? t^�@hi uLhiU@t| ihhLht �@�i �@_ @ *L?}t|@?_�?} Thiti?Ui �? |�i iUL?L4�Ut ThL�

uitt�L?c ML|� uLh U@*U�*@|�?} uLhiU@t| UL?�_i?Ui �?|ih�@*t @?_ Thi_�U|��i u@�*�hi |it|t

|�hL�}� ULhhitTL?_�?} uLhiU@t| �@h�@?Uitc @?_ uLh _�hiU|*) UL4T@h�?} 4L_i*t< uLhiU@t|

TihuLh4@?Ui� �*i4i?|t @?_ Oi?_h) E�bb�� �_i?|�u) �4TLh|@?| *�4�|@|�L?t uLh |�i *@|�

|ih �ti Lu �56,t� 5|�**c �56,t LUU�T) @ Ui?|h@* hL*i �? uLhiU@t|�?}c T@h|�U�*@h*)

�? *�}�| Lu |�i�h ?L��it|@M*�t�i_ hL*i �? uLhiU@t| i?UL4T@tt�?}( Uu� ,h�UttL? E�bb2��

ViU|Lh @�|Lhi}hitt�L?t EV�+t� @hi @ UL44L? @?_ }i?ih@* U*@tt Lu 4L_i*t uLh uLhi�

U@t|�?}c @t |�i) �?U*�_i �?��@h�@|i @�|Lhi}hitt��i 4L_i*tc hi_�Ui_ uLh4 iUL?L4i|h�U

4L_i*tc @?_ t�4�*|@?iL�t i^�@|�L?t 4L_i*t� A��t tiU|�L? |��t t!i|U�it tL4i @?@�

*)|�U@* ThLTih|�it Lu �56,t uLh V�+tc ti||�?} |�i M@U!_hLT uLh 5iU|�L? e L? �+E��

4L_i*t�

5U�4�_| E�b.e� @?_ �@�**�i E�b.bM� M��*_ L? BL*_Mih}ihc �@}@hc @?_ �_i� E�bS��

|L _ih��i |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, uLh |�L �@h�@?|t Lu |�i }i?ih@* �iU|Lh @�|Lhi}hitt��i

4L_i*� 5U�4�_| UL?t�_iht |�i *�?i@h _)?@4�U t�4�*|@?iL�t i^�@|�L?t 4L_i* ��ihi |�i

?L?�i?_L}i?L�t �@h�@M*it @hi !?L�? uLh |�i uLhiU@t| Tih�L_� A�@| �tc 5U�4�_|<t 4L_i*

�t @ t�Mt)t|i4 UL?_�|�L?@* V�+ ��|� !?L�?c t|hL?}*) i L}i?L�t �@h�@M*it� �@�**�i

UL?t�_iht @ UL4T*i|i V�+� O�t uh@4i�Lh! @**L�t uLh |�i t|hL?}*) i L}i?L�t �@h�@M*it

�? 5U�4�_|<t 4L_i* M�|c �u |�i) @hi Thiti?|c hi^��hit |�@| |�i) Mi uLhiU@t| @t �i**

E��i�c |h�i i @?|i uLhiU@t|�?}�� �@�**�i E�b.b@c �bH�� _ih��it |�i @TThL �4@|i �56,

�? 5U�4�_|<t uh@4i�Lh! ��|� @�|Lhi}hitt��i ihhLht� it| E�bbS� ThL��_it u�h|�ih }i?�

ih@*�3@|�L?t� AL �i*T �?_iht|@?_ |�i ThLTih|�it Lu |�i i @U| �56, �? 5iU|�L? ec |�i

U�hhi?| tiU|�L? t!i|U�it |�i _ih��@|�L? Lu |�i 5U�4�_|��@�**�i @TThL �4@|�L? @?_ _�t�

U�ttit �|t @?@*)|�U@* ThLTih|�it� ,^�@**)c |�i 5U�4�_|��@�**�i @TThL �4@|�L? Tih4�|t

UL4T@h�tL? Lu _�gihi?| i�@*�@|�L? |iU�?�^�it @UhLtt _�gihi?| Lh_iht Lu @TThL �4@|�L?

@?_ it|�4@|Lht E5iU|�L? e��

A�i �ht| �Lh�3L?|@* M*LU! �? A@M*i 2 U�@h@U|ih�3it |�i uh@4i�Lh! uLh |��t tiU|�L?�

5iU|�L? ��� _it�}?t |�i uLhiU@t|�?} t|h�U|�hic _itUh�M�?} |�i hi*@|�L?t��T Lu �?|ihit|

E|�i V�+� @?_ |�i U�@h@U|ih�t|�Ut Lu |�i uLhiU@t|t E�56,t uLh *�?i@h UL4M�?@|�L?t Lu

�iU|Lh L?i�t|iT @?_ r�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|t�� 5iU|�L? ��2 @?@*)|�U@**) _ih��it |�i @T�

ThL �4@|i �56, uLh uLhiU@t|t uhL4 |�@| 4L_i* Ei�@*�@|�L?�c @?_ 5iU|�L? ��� UL?t�_iht

ThLTih|�it Lu |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, ETLt|�i�@*�@|�L? @?@*)t�t�� A�i i TLt�|�L? �?

5iU|�L?t ������2 uL**L�t ��L?} @?_ Oi?_h) E�bHS� MiU@�ti Lu |�i *@||ih<t @UUitt�M�*�|)�

��� #it�}?

wi| +| Mi @ �iU|Lh Lu �@h�@M*it }i?ih@|i_ M) |�i �ht|�Lh_ih @�|Lhi}hitt��i ThLUittG

+| ' �+|3� n �| �| � W� Efcl� | ' 2c � � � c ?n 7 c Ee�

��ihi � �t @? 6�6 4@|h� Lu uii_M@U! ULi�U�i?|tc �| �t _�t|h�M�|i_ �?_iTi?_i?|*)

H

Page 11: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

Wdeoh 51 D Jxlgh wr wkh Iruhfdvwv H{dplqhg

GhvljqVhfwlrq Prgho Uhodwlrqvkls Fkdudfwhulvwlfv Hydoxdwlrq Srvw0hydoxdwlrq

ri Lqwhuhvw ri wkh Iruhfdvwv Dqdo|vlv

6 YDU pxowlsoh htxdwlrqv yhfwru dqdo|wlfdo/ dojheudlfixoo v|vwhp 40 dqg v0vwhs dssur{lpdwhg|qdplf/ L+3, olqhduolqhdu PVIHROV

714 DU+4, vlqjoh htxdwlrq vfdodu dqdo|wlfdo/ dojheudlfzlwkrxw dq ixoo v|vwhp 40 dqg v0vwhs lqfoxglqj Iljxuhv 4~6lqwhufhsw g|qdplf olqhdu h{dfw

olqhdu PVIHROV

715 DU+4, vdph dv deryh/ vdph dv deryh dqdo|wlfdo dojheudlfzlwkrxw dq zlwk hvwlpdwlrq Prqwh Fduor Iljxuhv 4/ 7lqwhufhsw e| PO qdlyh/ FY

716 DU+4, vdph dv deryh/ vdph dv deryh dqdo|wlfdo dojheudlfzlwk dq zlwk hvwlpdwrq Prqwh Fduor Iljxuh 8lqwhufhsw e| ROV qdlyh

8 Wudgh pxowlsoh htxdwlrqv vfdodu Prqwh Fduor Wdeohv 6~7prghov +P4~P8, 40 dqg v0vwhs qdlyh/ DY ydulrxvP4~P9 vlqjoh htxdwlrq +P9, qrqolqhdu vwdwlvwlfv

vxev|vwhp +P4~P7, +P4~P8,ixoo v|vwhp +P8~P9, olqhdu +P9,g|qdplf phdq dqg eldvqrqolqhdu +P4~P8,olqhdu +P9,ydulrxv hvwlpdwlrqsurfhgxuhv

b

Page 12: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

@?_ ?Lh4@**) dW� E�c ��o ��|� 4i@? 3ihL @?_ UL�@h�@?Ui 4@|h� lc @?_ +� �t }��i?�

�*|�L�}� Ee� @TTi@ht *�4�|i_ |L �ht|�Lh_ih ThLUittitc �| �t ?L|� Wu |�i �?_ih*)�?}

ThLUitt �t Lu @ ��}�ih Lh_ihc �| @*�@)t U@? Mi t|@U!i_ |L }��i @ �ht|�Lh_ih ThLUitt�

�iU@�ti Lu |�@| t|@U!�?}c Lh uLh L|�ih hi@tL?tc |�i �@h�@M*it Lu �?|ihit| uLh uLhiU@t|�?}

4@) Mi @ t�Mti| ELh tL4i *�?i@h UL4M�?@|�L?� Lu +?nrc ��|� |�i ti*iU|�L? 4@|h� �

i |h@U|�?} |�i �iU|Lh Lu �?|ihit| @t � �+?nr� 6�h|�ihc |�i 4@|h� � 4@) Mi hit|h�U|i_

Ei�}�c �@�i 3ihLt�c tL �| �t �tiu�* |L hiUL}?�3i i T*�U�|*) �L� � �t @ u�?U|�L? Lu �|t

�?UL?t|h@�?i_ i*i4i?|t wG

k � �D ' -w n o c ED�

��ihi E��D _i?L|it |�i UL*�4? �iU|Lh�3�?} LTih@|Lhc k �t |�i �iU|Lh�3@|�L? Lu �c @?_

@** |�i i*i4i?|t Lu - @?_ o @hi !?L�?� 6Lh UL?�i?�i?Uic � �t @tt�4i_ |L Mi t�U�

|�@| +| �t �?|i}h@|i_ Lu Lh_ih 3ihLc @*|�L�}� |��t UL?_�|�L? �t 4Lhi hit|h�U|��i |�@?

?iUitt@h)�

�i |c @tt�4i |�@| w �t it|�4@|i_ M) ewc ���U� �t @t)4T|L|�U@**) _�t|h�M�|i_ @tG

s? � Eew � w�

($ �Efc[� c ES�

��ihi($ _i?L|it UL?�ih}i?Ui �? _�t|h�M�|�L? @t ? $ 4c �Efc[� _i?L|it @ ?Lh�

4@* _�t|h�M�|�L? ��|� 4i@? 3ihL @?_ UL�@h�@?Ui 4@|h� [c @?_ [ �t |�i @t)4T|L|�U

UL�@h�@?Ui 4@|h� uLh ew� �L4M�?�?} ED� @?_ ES�c �| uL**L�t |�@|G

s? � Eek� k�

($ �EfcK� c E.�

��ihi K ' -[-�� W? �?�|i t@4T*itc |�i @TThL �4@|i _�t|h�M�|�L? Lu ew �tG

ew �@RR

�Ewc[

?� c EH�

��ihi �@RR

_i?L|it R�t @TThL �4@|i*) _�t|h�M�|i_ @t�� 6Lh �?t|@?Uic *i@t|�t^�@hit it|��

4@|�L? Lu |�i V�+ LM|@�?t ES��EH� uLh - ' U� 6Lh |�i hi4@�?_ih Lu |�i _ih��@|�L?c EH�

�t |hi@|i_ @t �u �| �ihi |�i i @U| _�t|h�M�|�L? Lu ewc ��i�c |ih4t t4@**ih |�@? �RE?3�*2�

�? |�i _�t|h�M�|�L? Lu ew @hi �}?Lhi_�

Nt�?} |�i _@|@ d+� � � � +?o |L uLhiU@t| +?nr }��itG

e+?nr ' e�r+? c Eb�

|�i i @?|i r�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|� �) hiTi@|i_ t�Mt|�|�|�L? Lu Ee� �?|L �|ti*u @|

t�UUitt��i *@}tc |�i @U|�@* L�|UL4i +?nr �tG

+?nr ' �r+? nr3�[�'f

���?nr3� c E�f�

�f

Page 13: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

��ihi �f � U �u � ' f� A��tc |�i _�tUhiT@?U) Mi|�ii? @U|�@* @?_ uLhiU@t| +?nr �tG

E+?nr � e+?nr� '

#r3�[�'f

���?nr3�

$n E�r � e�r�+? � E���

5i*iU|�?} |�i �@h�@M*i Lu �?|ihit| }��it |�i ULhhitTL?_�?} uLhiU@t| ihhLh ee?nrGee?nr � � �E+?nr � e+?nr�

' � �

#r3�[�'f

���?nr3�

$n � �E�r � e�r�+? � E�2�

A�i 4i@? t^�@hi uLhiU@t| ihhLh uLh ee?nr �t |�i _�t|h�M�|�L?@* ThLTih|) Lu �?|ihit|c ��i�c

HEee?nree �?nrm+?��

��2 ,�@*�@|�L?

A�i |�L |ih4t L? |�i h�}�|��@?_ t�_i Lu E�2� ULhhitTL?_ _�hiU|*) |L |�i |�L tL�hUit

Lu �?Uih|@�?|) Mi�?} �?�it|�}@|i_� A�i �ht|c � ��[r3�

�'f���?nr3�

�c �t |�i U�4�*@|�L?

Lu |�i t�LU!t |L ���U� +| �t t�M�iU| L�ih |�i �?|ih�@* d?n �c ?n roc ��ihi i@U� t�LU!

�t �i�}�|i_ M) |�i _i}hii |L ���U� �| �?��i?Uit � �+?nrc |�i �@h�@M*i Mi�?} Thi_�U|i_�

A�i tiUL?_c � �E�r � e�r�+?c hi�iU|t |�i �?Uih|@�?|) Thiti?| uhL4 �t�?} @? it|�4@|i_

�@*�i Lu � h@|�ih |�@? �|t |h�i �@*�i �? uLhiU@t|�?} � �+?nr� 6Lh UL?�i?�i?Uic |�iti |�L

|ih4t @hi _i?L|i_ @?cr @?_ K?cr� A�i @TThL �4@|i �56, uLh e+?nr U@? Mi U@*U�*@|i_

M) i�@*�@|�?} |�i �@h�@?Uit Lu |�iti |�L |ih4t�

5|h@�}�|uLh�@h_*)c |�i �@h�@?Ui Lu |�i �ht| |ih4 �tG

�@hE@?crm+?� ' � �

%r3�[�'f

��lE����&� � �t)�56, c E���

���U� �t |�i @t)4T|L|�U E��i�c *@h}i ?� �56,� A�i @TThL �4@|i �@h�@?Ui Lu |�i tiUL?_

|ih4 �tG

�@hEK?crm+?� �' ?3� � EU +�?�d(Er��K(Er�oEU +?� c E�e�

��ihi

(Er�� 'YE� ��r�D

Yk�' E� � U�

%r3�[�'f

�� E�r3�3���&( E�D�

|�i t)4ML* �t |�i khL?iU!ih ThL_�U|( @?_c �? �@?? @?_ @*_<t E�be�� Lh_ih

?L|@|�L?c @ |ih4 Lu �RE?3�� �t �}?Lhi_ �? K?cr ��i? U@*U�*@|�?} �@hEK?crm+?�� A�i

_ih��@|�L? Lu E�e� �t 4Lhi UL4T*�U@|i_ |�@? |�@| Lu E��� @?_ @TTi@ht �? ,h�UttL?

@?_ �@h^�i3 E�bHbc �TTi?_� ���2 �iU@�ti e�r @?_ i�?nr3�c � ' fc � � � c r � �j @hi

�?_iTi?_i?| EM) @tt�4T|�L?�c |�i? @?cr @?_ K?cr @hi @t �i**c tL |�i �@h�@?Ui Lu @?cr

5D kljkhu0rughu dssur{lpdwlrq frxog eh rewdlqhg e| hpsor|lqj d kljkhu0rughu Wd|oru0vhulhv h{0

sdqvlrq iru wkh glvwulexwlrq ri e� lq +9, dqg xvlqj glvwulexwlrqdo uhvxowv lq Vkhqwrq dqg Mrkqvrq

+4<98,> fi1 +56,1

��

Page 14: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

@?_ |�i @TThL �4@|i �@h�@?Ui Lu K?cr U@? Mi @__i_ |L}i|�ih |L LM|@�? |�i @TThL �4@|i

�56, E�TT�56,�G

�TT�56,Eee?nrm+?� ' � �

%r3�[�'f

��lE����&�

n ?3� � EU +�?�d(Er��K(Er�oEU +?� � E�S�

,^�@|�L? E�S� �t hi*@|��i*) i@t) |L �4T*i4i?| �? @ UL4T�|ih ThL}h@4 MiU@�ti �| �?�

�L*�it L?*) t�4t Lu ThL_�U|t Lu 4@|h�Uit� � @?_ +? @hi !?L�?c @?_ |�i �?!?L�?

i*i4i?|t Lu �c lc @?_ K 4@) Mi hiT*@Ui_ M) UL?t�t|i?| it|�4@|it Lu |�i4� �@*3L�

*@h� E�bH�c �bH.� ThL��_it @__�|�L?@* UL4T�|@|�L?@* t�4T*��U@|�L?t uLh 4L_i*t ��|�

hit|h�U|�L?t L? ��

��� �Lt|�i�@*�@|�L? �?@*)t�t

A�i |�L |ih4t L? |�i h�}�|��@?_ t�_i Lu E�S� Mi�@�i _�gihi?|*) �? |ih4t Lu |�i uLhiU@t|

�Lh�3L? rG �@hE@?crm+?� �?Uhi@tit 4L?L|L?�U@**) �? rc ��ihi@t �@hEK?crm+?� 4@) �?Uhi@ti

MiuLhi i�i?|�@**) _iUhi@t�?} |L 3ihL� Oi?Uic @t r �?Uhi@titc |�i @TThL �4@|i �56,

4@) _iUhi@ti @t �i** @t �?Uhi@ti� 5iU|�L? e�� i @4�?it |��t ?L?4L?L|L?�U�|) �? }hi@|ih

_i|@�*� �iU@�ti �@hEK?crm+?� �t TLt�|��i uLh �?�|i ? @?_ rc |�i @TThL �4@|i E@?_ tL |�i

i @U|� �56,t @hi @*�@)t *@h}ih |�@? |�i @t)4T|L|�U �56,�

e �56,t uLh �+E�� �L_i*t

A�i tiUL?_c |��h_c @?_ uL�h|� �Lh�3L?|@* M*LU!t �? A@M*i 2 U�@h@U|ih�3i |�i uh@4i�

�Lh! uLh 5iU|�L?t e��c e�2c @?_ e��c ���U� @?@*)3i |�i TLtt�M*i ?L?4L?L|L?�U�|) Lu

�56,tc |�i i �t|i?Ui Lu �56,tc @?_ |�i t�4�*@|�L? �?Uih|@�?|) uhL4 it|�4@|�?} �5�

6,t M) �L?|i �@h*L� `��*i i@U� u@Ui| Lu uLhiU@t|�?} i?|iht |�iti |�hii t�MtiU|�L?tc

5iU|�L?t e��c e�2c @?_ e�� uLU�t L? TLt|�i�@*�@|�L? @?@*)t�tc _it�}?c @?_ i�@*�@|�L?

hitTiU|��i*)c ��|� |�i Lh_ih�?} Lu |�i t�MtiU|�L?t hi�iU|�?} |�i ?@|�h@* Thiti?|@|�L?

Lu |�i 4L_i*t @?_ it|�4@|Lht i @4�?i_�

e�� �L?4L?L|L?�U�|) Lu �56,t

A��t tiU|�L? t�44@h�3it |�i _it�}?c i�@*�@|�L?c @?_ TLt|�i�@*�@|�L? @?@*)t�t Lu |�i

�+E�� 4L_i* M) OL^�ic �@}?�tc @?_ �it@h@? E�bHH�c �t�?} |�i @t)4T|L|�U @?_ @T�

ThL �4@|i �56,t _ih��i_ �? 5iU|�L? � |L �?|ihThi| |�i�h i @U| hit�*|t� �Lt|�i�@*�@|�L?

@?@*)t�t �t @ T@h|�U�*@h �tt�i �ihi MiU@�ti Lu |�i LMtih�i_ @?_ @TT@hi?|*) T�33*�?}

?L?4L?L|L?�U�|) �? |�i i @U| �56,�

#it�}?� �?i tTiU�@* U@ti Lu Ee� �t |�i �+E�� 4L_i*c ���U� �tG

+| ' q+|3� n �| �| � W� Efc j2� | ' 2c � � � c ?n 7 E�.�

�2

Page 15: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

�? OL^�ic �@}?�tc @?_ �it@h@?<t ?L|@|�L?c ��ihi +| @?_ �| @hi tU@*@h �@h�@M*itc q �t

|�i @�|Lhi}hitt��i ULi�U�i?|c @?_ j2 �t |�i �@h�@?Ui Lu �|� W? |�i ?L|@|�L? Lu 5iU|�L? �c

� ' k ' w ' qc l ' j2c - ' �c @?_ o ' f� 6Lh m q m �c |�i Lh_�?@h) *i@t| t^�@hit

E�w5� it|�4@|Lh Lu q �t @t)4T|L|�U@**) _�t|h�M�|i_ @tG

s? � Eeq � q�

($ �Efc d�� q2o� c E�H�

�? ���U� U@ti �@h�L�t 4@|h�Uit �? 5iU|�L? � t�4T*�u)G [ ' K ' E� � q2�c � ' �c @?_

(Er� ' rqr3�� A��tc |�i uLhiU@t| ihhLh E�2� �tG

ee?nr 'r3�[�'f

Eq�� � �?nr3� n Eqr � eqr� � +? � E�b�

6Lh q it|�4@|i_ M) �w5c |�i �?M�@ti_?itt Lu |�i r�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t| eqr+? uLh +?nr

uL**L�t �44i_�@|i*) uhL4 E�b�c ThL��_i_ |�@| |�i i TiU|@|�L? Lu E�b� @U|�@**) i �t|t(

tii 6�**ih @?_ O@t3@ E�bHf��

A@!�?} @_�@?|@}i Lu |�i i T*�U�| hi*@|�L?t��T Mi|�ii? |�i �w5 it|�4@|Lh @?_ |�i

_�t|�hM@?Uit i�|j �? U@*U�*@|�?} ee?nrc OL^�ic �@}?�tc @?_ �it@h@? E�bHH� _ih��i @?

@?@*)|�U@* i Thitt�L? uLh |�i i @U| �56, uLh |�i �+E�� 4L_i* E�.�� AL _L tLc |�i)

4�t| tTiU�u) |�i _�t|h�M�|�L? Lu |�i �?�|�@* UL?_�|�L? +�c ���U� |�i) TLt�| �tG

+� � W� Efc B2j2� c E2f�

��ihi B �t @? @hM�|h@h) UL?t|@?|� OL^�ic �@}?�tc @?_ �it@h@? i @4�?i |�L U@titG

B2 ' E� � q2�3� E|�i Rt|@|�L?@h) U@ti�� @?_ B2 ' � E|�i R?L?�t|@|�L?@h) U@ti���

�__�|�L?@**)c |�i |h�T*i| Eqc ?c r� 4�t| Mi tTiU��i_c @?_ |�i) U�LLti @ u�** u@U|Lh�@*

_it�}? LuG

q ' Ef�fc f��c f�2c � � � c f�Hc f�bc f�bDc f�bb�c

? ' E�fc �Dc 2fc 2D�c @?_

r ' E�c 2c �c e� d7 ' eo�

A�i ihhLh �@h�@?Ui j2 U@? Mi ti| |L �?�|) ��|�L�| *Ltt Lu }i?ih@*�|)c @t �| t�4T*)

tU@*it +�

,�@*�@|�L?� 6Lh i@U� ti| Lu �@*�it Lu Eqc ?c rc B�c OL^�ic �@}?�tc @?_ �it@h@?

U@*U�*@|i |�i i @U| �56, E, �56,� M) ?�4ih�U@* �?|i}h@|�L? Lu @? i T*�U�| uLh4

uLh E��c @t }��i? �? |�i�h A�iLhi4 2� #i|@�*t @TTi@h �? OL^�ic �@}?�tc @?_ �it@h@?

E�bHHc �TTi?_�Uit �����

A�i @TThL �4@|i �56, @*tL U@? Mi U@*U�*@|i_c ?L|�?} |�@| E�S� t�4T*��it |LG

�TT�56,Eee?nrm+?� ' j2#�� Eq2�r

�� q2

$n E?3� � +2?� � Erqr3��2 � E�� q2� � E2��

,^�@|�L? E2�� �_i?|��it |�i tiT@h@|i UL?|h�M�|�L?t Lu |�i _�gihi?| tL�hUit Lu �?Uih�

|@�?|)� A�i �ht| |ih4 L? |�i h�}�|��@?_ t�_i �t |�i @t)4T|L|�U |ih4c @?_ |�i tiUL?_

��

Page 16: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

�t |�i T@h| @h�t�?} uhL4 ULi�U�i?| �?Uih|@�?|)� �*|�L�}� |�i Lh�}�?@* _ih��@|�L? Lu

E2�� �t _��U�*| |L @tUih|@�?c �| @TTi@ht @t i@h*) @t �b.f �? �L @?_ ai?!�?t E�b.fc

T� 2Sb�� 6Lh |�i L?i�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|c E2�� t�4T*��it |L |�i 4Lhi u@4�*�@h uLh4�*@G

�TT�56,Eee?n�m+?� ' j2 n+2?E�� q2�

?�' j2

#� n

+2?S?|'2 +

2|3�

$( E22�

Uu� ��L� E�bSf� @?_ Oi?_h) E�b.b��

�Lt|�i�@*�@|�L? �?@*)t�t� OL^�ic �@}?�tc @?_ �it@h@? E�bHH� |@M�*@|i |�i�h

U@*U�*@|�L?t( @?_ |�i) @*tL T*L| @ t�Mti| Lu |�Lti i @U| �56,tc ML|� @t T�hi �56,t

EuLh r ' � @?_ uLh ? ' �D� @?_ @t �56,t hi*@|��i |L |�i @t)4T|L|�U �56,t EuLh

? ' �D�� OL^�ic �@}?�tc @?_ �it@h@? E�bHHc TT� ���c ��D� ?L|i ��|� tL4i t�hTh�ti

|�@| |�i i @U| �56, U@? _iUhi@ti @t |�i uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L? �?Uhi@titG |�i uLh4�*@ uLh

|�i @TThL �4@|i �56, �? E2�� @ML�i ThL��_it @? �?|��|��i i T*@?@|�L? Lu ��) |�@|

LUU�ht� A�i hi4@�?_ih Lu |��t t�MtiU|�L? �ht| �tit |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, |L i T*@�?

|�@| LMtih�i_ ?L?4L?L|L?�U�|)c @?_ |�i? i @4�?it 4Lhi }i?ih@**) |�i hi*@|�L?t��T

Mi|�ii? |�i @t)4T|L|�Uc @TThL �4@|ic @?_ i @U| �56,t�

A�i @TThL �4@|i �56, E2�� _�giht uhL4 |�i i @U| �56, M) �}?Lh�?} @ |ih4 Lu

�RE?3�� �? ee?nr� A�i @?@*)|�U@* ThLTih|�it Lu |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, U@? i T*@�? |�i

?L?4L?L|L?�U�|) �? |�i i @U| �56,� A�i ThLTih|�it Lu |�i �ht| |ih4 L? |�i h�}�|�

�@?_ t�_i Lu E2�� @hi hi*@|��i*) t�4T*i @?_ �i**�!?L�?� A��t |ih4 �t |�i @t)4T|L|�U

�56, @?_ t|@h|t @| |�i UL?_�|�L?@* �@h�@?Ui Lu +| Ej2� uLh r ' �� A�i @t)4T|L|�U

�56, �?Uhi@tit 4L?L|L?�U@**) �? rc |i?_�?} |L |�i �?UL?_�|�L?@* �@h�@?Ui Lu +|c ���U�

�t j2*E�� q2��

A�i t|h�U|�hi @?_ ThLTih|�it Lu |�i tiUL?_ |ih4 L? |�i h�}�|��@?_ t�_i Lu E2�� U@?

Mi i@t�*) i T*@�?i_ @?_ �?|ihThi|i_ ��@ �|t _ih��@|�L?� A�i |ih4 eqr�? E�b�c ��i�i_ @t

@ u�?U|�L? Lu eqc �t @TThL �4@|i_ M) @ �ht|�Lh_ih A@)*Lh�tih�it i T@?t�L? @ML�| q |L

}��iG eqr' qr n rqr3�Eeq � q� n�RE?

3�� � E2��

5�Mt|�|�|�L? �?|L Eqr � eqr� � +? }��it rqr3�Eq � eq� � +? n �RE?

3��c uhL4 ���U� |�i

tiUL?_ |ih4 L? |�i h�}�|��@?_ t�_i Lu E2�� uL**L�t �44i_�@|i*)c �t�?} E�H��� A�@|

|ih4 �t @*�@)t ?L?�?i}@|��i E@?_ }i?ih@**) TLt�|��i� uLh �?�|i ? @?_ rc @?_ �| �@?�t�it

@t i�|�ih r Lh ? MiUL4it *@h}i� OL�i�ihc uLh @ }��i? t@4T*i t�3i ?c �?@* LMtih�i_

�@*�i +?c @?_ ?L?3ihL qc |�i �56, U@? i�|�ih _iUhi@ti 4L?L|L?�U@**) @t |�i uLhiU@t|

�Lh�3L? r �?Uhi@titc Lh �?Uhi@ti �ht| @?_ |�i? _iUhi@ti� W|t T@|� _iTi?_t �TL? |�i

Mi�@��Lh Lu |�i ti^�i?Ui iErqr3��( r ' fc �c 2c � � �jc @?_ tL �TL? |�i T@h|�U�*@h �@*�i Lu

q� A�i UL?|h�M�|�L? Lu ULi�U�i?| �?Uih|@�?|) |L |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, U@? Mi *@h}i

Lh t4@** hi*@|��i |L |�i *@||ihc tL |�i u�?U|�L?@* hi*@|�L?t��T Mi|�ii? |�i @TThL �4@|i

6Wkh h�hfw ri v rq wkh glvwulexwlrq ri e�v dovr fdq eh vhhq e| dqdorj| wr prphqwv ri d vwdqgdugl}hg

qrupdo yduldwh {/ iru zklfk H+{v,5 @ +5v,$@+5v � v$,= h1j1/ H+{v,5 @ 4> 6> 48> 438 iru v @ 4> 5> 6> 71

Fohduo|/ wdnlqj d srzhu ri e� fdq lqfuhdvh lwv yduldqfh gudpdwlfdoo|1

�e

Page 17: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

�56, @?_ |�i uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L? r �|ti*u _iTi?_t �TL? q @?_ +?� A��tc |�i TL|i?|�@**)

*@h}i @?_ �@h)�?} UL?|h�M�|�L? Lu ULi�U�i?| �?Uih|@�?|) |L |�i @TThL �4@|i �56,

U@? i T*@�? |�i ?L|i_ ?L?4L?L|L?�U�|) �? r Lu |�i i @U| �56,( tii @*tL ��L?}

@?_ Oi?_h) E�bHSc T� SHD� @?_ �*i4i?|t @?_ Oi?_h) E�bbH@c �bbHM�� A�i tiUL?_

UL4TL?i?| Lu |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, ThL��_it @ t�4T*i @?@*)|�U@* i T*@?@|�L? Lu

|��t Mi�@��Lhc |L |�i i |i?| |�@| |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, Lgiht @ }LL_ @TThL �4@|�L?

|L |�i i @U| �56,� 5Lc |��t t�MtiU|�L? UL?U*�_it M) UL4T@h�?} |�i @t)4T|L|�Uc

@TThL �4@|ic @?_ i @U| �56,t uLh OL^�ic �@}?�tc @?_ �it@h@?<t _it�}?�

A�i @t)4T|L|�Uc @TThL �4@|ic @?_ i @U| �56,t @hi u�?U|�L?t Lu |�i T@h@4i|iht

Eqc rc ?��e W? uLhiU@t|�?}c �| �t Lu �?|ihit| |L !?L� �L� @?_ ��) |�Lti �56,t �@h)

@t |�i�h _i|ih4�?@?|t �@h)� �__�|�L?@**)c |�i i @U| �56, �t ?L| @�@�*@M*i �? 4@?)

Th@U|�U@* t�|�@|�L?t ��ihi@t @t)4T|L|�U @?_ @TThL �4@|i �56,t @hic tL OL^�ic �@}�

?�tc @?_ �it@h@?<t hit�*|t }h@?| |�i �?�t�@* LTTLh|�?�|) Lu @ttitt�?} �L� U*Lti |�i

@t)4T|L|�U @?_ @TThL �4@|i �56,t @hi |L |�i i @U| �56,�

6�}�hi � T*L|t |�i @t)4T|L|�Uc @TThL �4@|ic @?_ i @U| �56, Et|@|�L?@h) U@ti� @t

@ u�?U|�L? Lu |�i uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L? r uLh ti*iU|i_ �@*�it Lu q @?_ ?G q ' Ef�2c f�.c f�b�

@?_ ? ' E�fc 2f�� E6�}�hi � @*tL �?U*�_it it|�4@|i_ i @U| �56,t uLh 4@ �4�4

*�!i*��LL_ it|�4@|�L? Lu qc i @4�?i_ �? 5iU|�L? e�2 Mi*L��� A�i �@*�it Lu q �4T*)

+| h@?}�?} uhL4 Mi�?} ?i@h*) ���|i�?L�ti |L ��}�*) @�|Lhi}hitt��i� �L|� �ihi @?_ �?

uL**L��?} tiU|�L?c |�i |ih4 +2? �? E2�� �t U�Lti? |L Mi @ hiThiti?|@|��i �@*�ic j2*E��q2�c

��i�c i^�@* |L �|t �?UL?_�|�L?@* i TiU|@|�L?�D

6Lh @** �@*�it Lu q @?_ ?c |�i @t)4T|L|�U �56, �?Uhi@tit �? |�i uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L? rc

��|� |�i U�h�@|�hi Lu |�i �56, _iTi?_�?} L? q� A�i _�tUhiT@?U) Mi|�ii? |�i L?i�

t|iT @?_ �?�?�|i�t|iT @�i@_ @t)4T|L|�U �56,t �?Uhi@tit ��|� qc @?_ |�i @t)4T|L|�U

�56, *i�i*t L�| 4Lhi }h@_�@**) uLh *@h}ih q� �L|� hit�*|t uL**L� _�hiU|*) uhL4 E2���

6�}�hi � hi�i@*t |�hii _�t|�?U| T@||ih?t uLh |�i @TThL �4@|i �56,G @ _iUhi@t�?}

@TThL �4@|i �56,c @? �?Uhi@t�?} @TThL �4@|i �56,c @?_ @? @TThL �4@|i �56,

|�@| �?Uhi@tit @?_ |�i? _iUhi@tit� `��U� T@||ih? Thi�@�*t _iTi?_t �TL? ML|� q @?_

?� 6Lh t4@** qc |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, �t _iU*�?�?} @*4Lt| �?�uLh4*) @t |�i �Lh�3L?

�?Uhi@titc ��|� |�i �?�|�@* EL?i�t|iT @�i@_� @TThL �4@|i �56, Mi�?} |�i *@h}it| �

A�@| @h�tit MiU@�ti |�i �?Uih|@�?|) uhL4 it|�4@|�?} q �t *@h}i EuhL4 E�H��c M�| |�@|

�?Uih|@�?|) �t �?�4TLh|@?| �? uLhiU@t|�?} +?nr i UiT| uLh r ' �� �@|�i4@|�U@**)c

rqr3� �? E2�� �t @TThL �4@|i*) 3ihL i UiT| uLh r ' �c ��i? �| �t @TThL �4@|i*) �?�|)�

�iU@�ti |�i @t)4T|L|�U �56, U�@?}it *�||*i @t r �?Uhi@titc |�i @TThL �4@|i �56,

�t _iU*�?�?} uhL4 |�i t|@h| E6�}�hit �@ @?_ �M��

6Lh *@h}ih �@*�it Lu qc |�i �@h�@?Ui uhL4 ULi�U�i?| �?Uih|@�?|) �?Uhi@tit �ht| @?_

7Zlwkrxw orvv ri jhqhudolw|/ �5 @ 4 ehfdxvh �5 lv d vfdoh idfwru lq +4:,/ dqg khqfh lq +54,18Dqrwkhu mxvwl�fdwlrq iru wklv fkrlfh lv wkdw wkh xqfrqglwlrqdo h{shfwdwlrq H ^+�v � e�v,5|5

q` lv

dssur{lpdwho| H ^+�v � e�v,5` � H ^|5q` ehfdxvh e� dqg |

qduh dssur{lpdwho| lqghshqghqw1 Vhh Skloolsv

+4<:<, iru dq h{whqvlyh glvfxvvlrq rq wkh frqglwlrqdo dqg xqfrqglwlrqdo �qlwh vdpsoh glvwulexwlrqv

ri wkh iruhfdvw huuru1

�D

Page 18: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

0 10 20 301

1.05

1.1

1.15

beta=0.2

beta=0.7

MSFE

beta=0.9

n=10 n=20

ExMSFEPoMSFEAppMSFEAsyMSFE

0 10 20 301

1.05

1.1

1.15

0 10 20 301

2

3horizon s

0 10 20 301

2

3

0 10 20 300

2

4

6

0 10 20 300

2

4

6

6�}�hi �G A�i i @U|c TLL*i_c @TThL �4@|ic @?_ @t)4T|L|�U 4i@? t^�@hi uLhiU@t|

ihhLht uLh @�|Lhi}hitt��i ULi�U�i?| �@*�it Lu q ' Ef�2c f�.c f�b� @?_ t@4T*i t�3it Lu

? ' E�fc 2f� @t @ u�?U|�L? Lu |�i uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L? r Er ' �c � � � c �f��

�S

Page 19: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

|�i? u@**t MiU@�ti |�i 4�*|�T*�U@|��i ULi�U�i?| r �? rqr3� _L4�?@|it uLh t4@** r M�|

|�i i TL?i?|�@* |ih4 Eqr3�� _L4�?@|it uLh *@h}i r� �t |�i t�4 Lu |�L UL4TL?i?|tc

L?i 4L?L|L?�U@**) �?Uhi@t�?} @?_ |�i L|�ih �?Uhi@t�?} @?_ |�i? |i?_�?} |L 3ihLc |�i

@TThL �4@|i �56, U@? i�|�ih �?Uhi@ti �ht| @?_ |�i? u@** |L�@h_t |�i �?UL?_�|�L?@*

�@h�@?Ui Lu +| E6�}�hit �U��u� Lh �?Uhi@ti 4L?L|L?�U@**)c @TThL@U��?} |�@| @t)4T|L|�U

�@h�@?Ui E@*tL �?Uhi@t�?} �? r� uhL4 @ML�i� A�i *@||ih �L�*_ Mi |�i U@ti uLh @** |�i

�}�hit �u |�i t@4T*i t�3i ? �ihi *@h}i i?L�}��

�*|�L�}� |�ihi @hi tL4i ?L|@M*i _�tUhiT@?U�it Mi|�ii? |�i @TThL �4@|i @?_ i �

@U| �56,t �? |�i �}�hit ETh�4@h�*) uLh ? ' �f ��|� r ' e�c |�i @TThL �4@|i �56,

_Lit hi4@h!@M*) �i** �? @TThL �4@|�?} |�i i @U| �56,c tL �i** |�@| �| �t _��U�*| |L

_�t|�?}��t� |�i4 @| ? ' 2f� OL�i�ihc |�i _iTi?_i?Ui L? qc ?c @?_ r Lu _�tUhiT@?U�it

Mi|�ii? |�i @TThL �4@|i ELh @t)4T|L|�U� �56, @?_ |�i i @U| �56, �t 4Lhi @TT@h�

i?| M) T*L||�?} @** Lu OL^�ic �@}?�tc @?_ �it@h@?<t U@*U�*@|�L?t� 6�}�hit 2 @?_ � _L

tLc �t�?} t4@** 4�*|�T*it Lu |�hii�_�4i?t�L?@* }h@T�t�

Bh@T�t �? |�i �ht| UL*�4? Lu 6�}�hi 2 T*L| |�i TihUi?| _�tUhiT@?U�it Mi|�ii? |�i

@t)4T|L|�U �56, �? E��� @?_ |�i @ttLU�@|i_ i @U| �56, uhL4 OL^�ic �@}?�tc @?_

�it@h@? E�bHHc A@M*it � @?_ 2� uLh |�i t|@|�L?@h) U@ti� ,@U� }h@T� �? |�i UL*�4? �t

_i�?i_ M) @? it|�4@|�L? t@4T*i t�3i ? @?_c uLh |�@| t@4T*i t�3ic T*L|t |�i TihUi?|

_�tUhiT@?U�it @t @ u�?U|�L? Lu |�i @�|Lhi}hitt��i ULi�U�i?| q @?_ |�i uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L?

r� Bh@T�t �? |�i tiUL?_ UL*�4? Lu 6�}�hit 2 *�!i��ti T*L| |�i _�tUhiT@?U�it Mi|�ii?

|�i @TThL �4@|i @?_ i @U| �56,t�S 6�}�hi � T*L|t |�i ULhhitTL?_�?} hit�*|t uLh |�i

?L?t|@|�L?@h) U@ti EB2 ' ���

A�i @t)4T|L|�U uLh4�*@ U@T|�hit |�i Mi�@��Lh Lu |�i i @U| �56, �i** uLh t4@**

|L 4i_��4 �@*�it Lu q @?_ uLh *@h}i ?c ��|� _i��@|�L?t Lu |�i Lh_ih Lu DI��DI( M�| �|

_Lit TLLh*) L|�ih��ti� A�i @TThL �4@|i �56, u@hit Mi||ihG |)T�U@* _iT@h|�hit @hi

2I��I Lh *itt� �t ��|� |�i @t)4T|L|�U �56,c 4Lhi t�3@M*i _�tUhiT@?U�it @TTi@h uLh

*@h}i r T@�hi_ ��|� t4@** ? @?_%Lh *@h}i q� A�i igiU|��i t@4T*i t�3ic @t 4i@t�hi_

�ihi M) E? � ��*E� � q2�c Thi_�U|t |�i TLtt�M�*�|) Lu t�U� _iT@h|�hit �?_ih |�Lti

UL?_�|�L?t( Uu� 5�4t E�b.e� @?_ Oi?_h) E�bHe�� A�i @TThL �4@|i �56, �t @*4Lt|

�?�@h�@M*) t4@**ih |�@? |�i i @U| �56,c @*|�L�}� |��t �?i^�@*�|) ?ii_ ?L| �L*_ �?

}i?ih@*( Uu� �i|iht @?_ 6hii_4@? E�bHDc T� 2DH� @?_ ��@?U�� E�bbfc T� bH��

A�i @?@*)|�U@* uLh4�*@i �? E�b� @?_ E2�� �i*T �_i?|�u) |�i tL�hUit Lu _�tUhiT@?U�it

Mi|�ii? |�i |�hii |)Tit Lu �56,t� #�tUhiT@?U�it Mi|�ii? |�i @t)4T|L|�U @?_ i @U|

�56, @h�ti MiU@�ti eq �t ?L| �_i?|�U@**) q� #�tUhiT@?U�it Mi|�ii? |�i @TThL �4@|i

@?_ i @U| �56, @h�ti uLh ti�ih@* hi@tL?t� 6�ht|c |�i @t)4T|L|�U @?_ �?�|i t@4T*i

�@h�@?Uit Lu eq _�gihc @?_ �i?Ui tL _L |�i hitTiU|��i �@h�@?Uit Lu eqr�? E�b�� 5iUL?_ceq �t M�@ti_ �? �?�|i t@4T*it M�| ?L| @t)4T|L|�U@**) E*�!i��ti uLh eqr�� A��h_c |�i

9Ehfdxvh rqo| +q� 4, revhuydwlrqv duh dfwxdoo| xvhg lq hvwlpdwlqj �/ wkh fdofxodwlrq ri +54, iru

wkh wdeohv xvhv +q� 4, udwkhu wkdq q1 Hulfvvrq dqg Pdutxh} +4<;</ Dsshqgl{ E, olvw wkh ydoxhv ri

wkh dv|pswrwlf dqg dssur{lpdwh PVIHv iru wkh h{shulphqwv lq Krtxh/ Pdjqxv/ dqg Shvdudq +4<;;,

dqg iru wkrvh lq Rufxww dqg Zlqrnxu +4<9<, glvfxvvhg lq Vhfwlrq 715 ehorz1

�.

Page 20: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

-10 0

10 20 30 40 50 60

0.20 0.50 0.80 0.9912

34

-10 0

10 20 30 40 50 60

0.20 0.50 0.80 0.99 1

23

4

-10 0

10 20 30 40 50 60

0.20 0.50 0.80 0.99 1

23

4

-10 0

10 20 30 40 50 60

0.20 0.50 0.80 0.99 1

23

4

-10 0

10 20 30 40 50 60

0.20 0.50 0.80 0.99 1

23

4

-10 0

10 20 30 40 50 60

0.20 0.50 0.80 0.99 1

23

4

-10 0

10 20 30 40 50 60

0.20 0.50 0.80 0.99 1

23

4

-10 0

10 20 30 40 50 60

0.20 0.50 0.80 0.99 1

23

4

Percent

beta Horizon

100[1-(AppMSFE/ExMSFE)]100[1-(AsyMSFE/ExMSFE)]

n=10

n=15

n=20

n=25

6�}�hi 2G �ihUi?| _i��@|�L?t Lu |�i @t)4T|L|�U @?_ @TThL �4@|i �56,t uhL4 |�i

i @U| �56,c @t @ u�?U|�L? Lu t@4T*i t�3i ?c uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L? rc @?_ @�|Lhi}hitt��i

ULi�U�i?| q Et|@|�L?@h) U@ti��

�H

Page 21: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

-10 0

10 20 30 40 50 60

0.2 0.5 0.8 0.99 1

23

4

Percent

beta Horizon

-10 0

10 20 30 40 50 60

0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9912 3

4

-10 0

10 20 30 40 50 60

0.2 0.5 0.8 0.99 1

23

4

-10 0

10 20 30 40 50 60

0.2 0.5 0.8 0.99 1

23

4

-10 0

10 20 30 40 50 60

0.2 0.5 0.8 0.99 1

23

4

-10 0

10 20 30 40 50 60

0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9912

34

-10 0

10 20 30 40 50 60

0.2 0.5 0.8 0.99 1

23

4

-10 0

10 20 30 40 50 60

0.2 0.5 0.8 0.99 1

23

4

100[1-(AppMSFE/ExMSFE)]100[1-(AsyMSFE/ExMSFE)]

n=10

n=15

n=20

n=25

6�}�hi �G �ihUi?| _i��@|�L?t Lu |�i @t)4T|L|�U @?_ @TThL �4@|i �56,t uhL4 |�i

i @U| �56,c @t @ u�?U|�L? Lu t@4T*i t�3i ?c uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L? rc @?_ @�|Lhi}hitt��i

ULi�U�i?| q E?L?t|@|�L?@h) U@ti��

�b

Page 22: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

�ht|�Lh_ih A@)*Lh�tih�it @TThL �4@|�L? Lu eqr@ML�| qr 4@) �}?Lhi �4TLh|@?| |ih4t�

A�i @UU�h@U) @?_ |�i }i?ih@*�|) Lu |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, _L ?L| �? @?) �@) Mi*�||*i

OL^�ic �@}?�tc @?_ �it@h@?<t i @U| hit�*|t� AL |�i UL?|h@h)c i @U| hit�*|t @hi ��}�*)

_it�h@M*i MiU@�ti |�i) �?�L*�i ?L @TThL �4@|�L? ihhLhc MiU@�ti |�i) @hi tL h@hic @?_

MiU@�ti |�i) @hi itti?|�@* uLh @ttitt�?} |�i @UU�h@U) Lu @TThL �4@|�L?t t�U� @t E2���

e�2 A�i , �t|i?Ui Lu �56,t

OL^�ic �@}?�tc @?_ �it@h@? E�bHH� t�L� |�@| |�i i @U| �56, i �t|t uLh |�i �+E��

4L_i* �u @?_ L?*) �u |�i uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L? r �t ?L| }hi@|ih |�@? E?�2�*2� �L?�i �t|i?Ui

Lu |�i i @U| �56, uLh *L?}ih uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L?t h@�tit ti�ih@* �tt�it� 5TiU��U@**)c

OL^�ic �@}?�tc @?_ �it@h@?<t hit�*| �@t _ih��i_ uLh |�i *i@t|�t^�@hit it|�4@|Lh Lu

qc @?_ �| _Lit ?L| }i?ih@*�3i |L L|�ih it|�4@|Lht Lu q� A��t t�MtiU|�L? t�L�t |�@|

|�i i @U| �56,t uLh |h�?U@|i_ it|�4@|Lht Lu q @hi �?�|i @| @** uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L?t

@?_ UL?t�_iht @__�|�L?@* ThLTih|�it Lu �56,t uLh |h�?U@|i_ it|�4@|Lht� A�i i @U|

4@ �4�4 *�!i*��LL_ it|�4@|Lh �t @ |h�?U@|i_ it|�4@|Lh Lu T@h|�U�*@h �?|ihit|c tL |��t

t�MtiU|�L? @?@*)3it �|t �56, �? _i|@�*� 6LhiU@t| _it�}? �t |��t Ui?|h@* �ihic ML|�

|�hL�}� |�i U�L�Ui Lu ? @?_ r E|L i?t�hi i �t|i?Ui Lu |�i �56, uLh �w5� @?_ |�hL�}�

|�i U�L�Ui Lu it|�4@|Lh� A�@| t@�_c i�@*�@|�L? Lu |�i �56, @*tL T*@)t @? �4TLh|@?|

hL*i �? |��t t�MtiU|�L?�

� _�gihi?| TihtTiU|��i @h�tit uhL4 U�hhi?| uLhiU@t|�?} Th@U|�Uic ���U� Lu|i? |hi@|t

it|�4@|�L? @t @ 4iU�@?�U@* ThLUi_�hi uLh hiT*@U�?} �?!?L�? ULi�U�i?|t ��|� ?�4�

Miht� `�i? |��t Th@U|�Ui i?|@�*t it|�4@|i_ _)?@4�U 4L_i*t M) �w5c |�i hit�*|�?}

�56, 4@) u@�* |L i �t| @| Uih|@�? uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L?t� �@ �4�4 *�!i*��LL_ it|�4@|�L?

tL*�it |��t ThLM*i4� AL �?_iht|@?_ ��)c �| �i*Tt |L ��i� 4L_i* it|�4@|�L? @t @?

�?|i}h@* T@h| Lu |�i uLhiU@t|�?} i ihU�ti E��i�c Lu uLhiU@t| _it�}?� @?_ ?L| @t |iU�?�^�i

uLh 4ihi*) ^�@?|�u)�?} �?!?L�?t�

A�i igiU|t Lu it|�4@|Lh |h�?U@|�L? L? �56, uL**L� t|h@�}�|uLh�@h_*)� 5�TTLti

@? it|�4@|Lh 7q �t |h�?U@|i_ t�U� |�@| m7qm � � uLh tL4i TLt�|��i ML�?_ �� A�i

ULhhitTL?_�?} uLhiU@t| ihhLh �tG

e?nr 'r3�[�'f

q��?nr3� n Eqr � 7qr� � +? c E2e�

T@h@**i*�?} E�b�� � ML�?_ U@? Mi T*@Ui_ L? |�i i @U| �56, uLh e?nr M) @TT*�U@|�L?

Lu |�i |h�@?}*i @?_ 5U��@h|3 �?i^�@*�|�it @?_ M) ?L|�?} |�@| HE+2?� ' j2*E�� q2��

, �56,Ee?nr� ' j2%�� Eq2�r

�� q2

&n HdEqr � 7q

r�2 � +2?o

� j2%�� Eq2�r

�� q2

&n HdEqr � 7q

r�2o � HE+2?�

� j2%�� Eq2�r

�� q2

&n HdEmqrmn m7qrm�2o � HE+2?�

2f

Page 23: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

� j2%�� q2r n E� n �r�2

�� q2

&E2D�

Wu |�i ML�?_ �t |�i �?�| U�hU*i E� ' ��c |�i? @ t*�}�|*) *LLtih ML�?_ i �t|t |�@| �t

�?_iTi?_i?| Lu rG ��i�c Dj2*E� � q2�c ��i |�4it |�i �?UL?_�|�L?@* �@h�@?Ui Lu |�i

ThLUitt� A�i i �t|i?Ui Lu |�i i @U| �56, _Lit ?L| hi^��hi |�@| |�i it|�4@|Lh Mi

UL?t�t|i?| uLh @?) �@*�i ��@|tLi�ih� �L?�ihti*)c MiU@�ti ?i�|�ih ML�?_ 4@!it �ti Lu

|�i @t)4T|L|�U ThLTih|�it Lu 7qc ?i�|�ih UL?�ih}it |L |�i @t)4T|L|�U �56, @t ? $ 4�

,�i? tLc |�i i �t|i?Ui Lu @ ML�?_ E@?_ tL Lu |�i i @U| �56,� �?_�U@|it �L� ti?t�|��i

|�i i �t|i?Ui hit�*|t @hi |L 4�?Lh U�@?}it �? |�i _�t|h�M�|�L?@* @tt�4T|�L?t Lu |�i

it|�4@|Lh Mi�?} �ti_�.

A�i UL?_�|�L? uLh i �t|i?Ui Lu |�i i @U| �56, @*tL Mi@ht L? |�i @UU�h@U) Lu

@TThL �4@|�L?� 6Lh �?t|@?Uic uLh ? ' �f �? 6�}�hit ���c |�i i @U| �56, i �t|t uLh

r � e L?*)� A�i �Lhti?�?} Lu |�i @TThL �4@|�L? ihhLh @t r �?Uhi@tit 4@) Mi _�i |L

|�i _iU*�?�?} ?�4Mih Lu 4L4i?|t Lu |�i uLhiU@t| ihhLh� A�i igiU|t Lu |�i i �t|i?Ui Lu

4L4i?|t @hi @*tL t�}}it|i_ M) 6�}�hit ��2c ��ihi |�i UL?�ih}i?Ui Lu |�i i @U| @?_

@TThL �4@|i �56, @TTi@ht u@t|ih |�@? �E?32� uLh *@h}i r�

�iU@�ti |�i 5U�4�_|��@�**�i @TThL �4@|�L? hi*�it L? L?*) |�i @t)4T|L|�U _�t|h��

M�|�L? Lu |�i it|�4@|Lh �ti_c |�i uLh4�*@i �? 5iU|�L? � @hi �@*�_ uLh @** it|�4@|Lht

@t)4T|L|�U@**) i^���@*i?| |L �w5( tii E.� @?_ E�H� @ML�i� �?i t�U� it|�4@|Lh �t

i @U| 4@ �4�4 *�!i*��LL_ E�w�c ���U� @UUL�?|t uLh |�i _�t|h�M�|�L? Lu +� |�hL�}�

E2f� ��|� B2 ' �*E� � q2��H �@ �4�4 *�!i*��LL_ it|�4@|�L? �@t ti�ih@* _it�h@M*i

ui@|�hit �? |�i Thiti?| UL?|i |� W? T@h|�U�*@hc �|t i @U| �56, i �t|t @| @** uLhiU@t|

�Lh�3L?tc �?_iTi?_i?| Lu |�i t�3i Lu |�i it|�4@|�L? Tih�L_� A�@| uL**L�t MiU@�ti |�i

�w it|�4@|Lh �t ML�?_i_ M) |�i �?�| U�hU*ic ��i�c � ' �� 6�h|�ih4Lhic � ' � �4T*�it @

ML�?_ L? |�i i @U| �56, uLh �wc �?_iTi?_i?| Lu |�i uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L?� A�i �ht| Lu

|�iti hit�*|t Tih4�|t @ttitt�?} |�i }i?ih@*�|) Lu |�i 5U�4�_|��@�**�i @TThL �4@|�L? @|

uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L?t *L?}ih |�@? |�Lti ui@t�M*i uLh �w5� OL�i�ihc MiU@�ti |�i @?@*)|�U@*

uLh4�*@ uLh |�i i @U| �56, ��|� �w �t �?!?L�? @?_ MiU@�ti OL^�ic �@}?�tc @?_

�it@h@?<t ?�4ih�U@* @TThL@U� �t tTiU��U |L *i@t| t^�@hitc |��t t�MtiU|�L? UL4T@hit |�i

@TThL �4@|i �56, ��|� �L?|i �@h*L it|�4@|it Lu |�i i @U| �56, Lu �w� �}@�?c |�i

@TThL �4@|i �56, �t hi4@h!@M*) U*Lti |L |�i i @U| �56,c i�i? uLh t�Lh| it|�4@|�L?

Tih�L_t @?_ *L?} uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L?t�

#it�}?� W? Lh_ih |L @ttitt |�i U*Lti?itt Lu |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, |L |�i i @U|

�56, uLh �w ��|�L�| |�i @_�@?|@}i Lu i @U| @?@*)|�U@* uLh4�*@ic |�i i @U| �56,

�t it|�4@|i_ M) �L?|i �@h*L uLh @ ��_i h@?}i Lu qc ?c @?_ rc @?_ UL4T@hi_ ��|� |�i

:Iru lqvwdqfh/ vxssrvh wkdw wkh hvwlpdwru lv ROV wuxqfdwhg zlwk � @ 43643/ hqwdlolqj d udqjh

riwhq shuplwwhg e| �rdwlqj0srlqw grxeoh0suhflvlrq fdofxodwlrqv rq d frpsxwhu1 Wkdw ydoxh ri �

lpsolhv h{lvwhqfh ri wkh h{dfw PVIH iru doo v/ |hw wkh wuxqfdwhg hvwlpdwru zloo orrn olnh ROV iru

yluwxdoo| doo sudfwlfdo sxusrvhv1;Fi1 Pdhndzd +4<;:,/ zkr vkrzv dq htxlydohqfh wr R+q�4, ehwzhhq wkh frpsohwh glvwulexwlrqv

ri wkh iruhfdvw huuru iru ROV dqg dssur{lpdwh PO1

2�

Page 24: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

ULhhitTL?_�?} @t)4T|L|�U @?_ @TThL �4@|i �56,t� 5TiU��U@**)c |�i �L?|i �@h*L

i Tih�4i?| �t @ u�** u@U|Lh�@* _it�}? LuG

q ' Ef�fc f��c f�2c � � � c f�Hc f�bc f�bDc f�bb�c

? ' E�fc �Dc 2fc 2Dc ef�c @?_

r ' E�c 2c � � � c �f� d7 ' �foc

��|� B2 ' j2*E� � q2� |L i?t�hi t|@|�L?@h�|)� �}@�?c j2 ' �c @?_ ��|�L�| *Ltt Lu

}i?ih@*�|)� A��t _it�}? i4Mi_t |�i h@?}i Lu �@*�it i�@*�@|i_ M) OL^�ic �@}?�t

@?_ �it@h@? uLh �w5 ��|� @ t|@|�L?@h) �+E�� ThLUitt� OL�i�ihc MiU@�ti |�i i @U|

�56, uLh �w i �t|t uLh @** uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L?tc �|t �@*�it U@? Mi UL4T@hi_ ��|� |�i

@TThL �4@|i �56, @| 4�U� *L?}ih uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L?t |�@? @�@�*@M*i |L OL^�ic �@}?�t

@?_ �it@h@?�

,�@*�@|�L?� AL LM|@�? hi@tL?@M*) @UU�h@|i �L?|i �@h*L it|�4@|itc �fc fff hiT*��

U@|�L?t Tih i Tih�4i?| @hi �ti_� +iUL}?�3�?} |�@| t�4�*@|�L? �t @ |LL* uLh tL*��?} @?

�?!?L�? @?@*)|�U@* ThLM*i4 *i@_t �44i_�@|i*) |L |�i UL?t|h�U|�L? @?_ �ti Lu �L?|i

�@h*L ThLUi_�hit |�@| @hi 4Lhi i�U�i?| |�@? T�hi t�4�*@|�L?� A�i t�4�*@|�L?t Lu |�i

�56, �? |��t t�MtiU|�L? �?ULhTLh@|i @ UL?|hL* �@h�@|i ThLTLti_ @?_ �4T*i4i?|i_ M)

,h�UttL? @?_ �@h^�i3 E�bHb� @?_ @*tL @TT*�i_ M) �*i4i?|t @?_ Oi?_h) E�bbDc T� ��S�

|L uLhiU@t|t �? UL�?|i}h@|i_ t)t|i4t� A�i hi4@�?_ih Lu |��t t�MtiU|�L? _itUh�Mit |�i

UL?|hL* �@h�@|i<t UL?t|h�U|�L?c �|t ThLTih|�itc @?_ |�i t�4�*@|�L? hit�*|t LM|@�?i_ ��|�

�|�

A�i M@t�U �L?|i �@h*L t�4�*@|�L? �@t UL?_�U|i_ @t uL**L�t� 6Lh i@U� i Tih�4i?|c

���U� �t U�@h@U|ih�3i_ M) @ Eqc ?� T@�hc g hiT*�U@|�L?t Lu ?n7 ?Lh4@* Tti�_L�h@?_L4

?�4Miht iE�&c|c | ' �c � � � c ?n7�c & ' �c � � � c gj �ihi }i?ih@|i_ uhL4 T@�ht Lu �?�uLh4

Tti�_L�h@?_L4 ?�4Miht �t�?} �L @?_ ��**ih<t E�bDH� |h@?tuLh4@|�L?�b 6Lh |�i

&|� hiT*�U@|�L?c @ ti| E+&c|c | ' �c � � � c ? n 7� �@t Uhi@|i_ uhL4 E�.� @?_ E2f� ��|�

B2 ' E��q2�3�c @?_ |�i �w it|�4@|i �@t uL�?_ M) tL*��?} |�i U�M�U �? q uhL4 ti||�?}

|�i tULhi Lu |�i *�!i*��LL_ i^�@* |L 3ihL( tii kLLT4@?t E�be2�c �?_ihtL? E�b.�c

T� �De�c @?_ �i@U� @?_ �@Uk�??L? E�b.H�� B��i? |�i �w it|�4@|ic |�i uLhiU@t| ihhLh

�@t U@*U�*@|i_ uLh i@U� �@*�i Lu r Er ' �c � � � c 7�� , T*�U�|*)c *i| �q ' �qEq�c ?�c &� _i?L|i

|�i �w it|�4@|i uLh |�i &|� hiT*�U@|�L? Lu |�i i Tih�4i?| ��|� |�i �|� �@*�i Lu q Eq��

@?_ |�i �|� it|�4@|�L? t@4T*i t�3i ? E?��� 6�h|�ihc *i| ihe&c?�nrEq��( r ' �c � � � c 7j Mi

<Wkh xqlirup udqgrp qxpehu jhqhudwruv duh wkh pl{hg0frqjuxhqwldo jhqhudwru UQGP iurp

Fduulhu/ Dwnlqv/ dqg Wd|oru +4<9<, +exw frqyhuwhg iurp FRPSDVV wr IRUWUDQ, dqg wkh

pxowlsolfdwlyh0frqjuxhqwldo jhqhudwru J38FDI iurp wkh Qxphulfdo Dojrulwkpv Jurxs +4<;7,1 Gli0

ihuhqw udqgrp qxpehu jhqhudwruv zhuh xvhg iru hdfk qxpehu lq wkh sdlu ri xqlirup svhxgr0udqgrp

qxpehuv lq rughu wr dyrlg wkh srwhqwldo gl�fxowlhv zlwk Er{ dqg Pxoohu*v wudqvirupdwlrq ghvfulehg

lq Qhdyh +4<:6,1

22

Page 25: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

|�i ULhhitTL?_�?} ti| Lu LMtih�i_ uLhiU@t| ihhLhtc ��ihiG

he&c?�nrEq�� � +&c?�nr � �+&c?�nr

'r3�[�'f

Eq��� � �&c?�nr3� n Eqr

� � �qr� � +&c?�

� E2S�

A�i �t�@* �L?|i �@h*L it|�4@|Lh Lu |�i �56, E�U�56,� �tG

�U�56,?�nrEq�� 'g[&'�

dhe&c?�nrEq��o2

gc E2.�

���U�c �? Oi?_h)<t E�bHe� |ih4�?L*L})c �t |�i R?@��i� �L?|i �@h*L it|�4@|Lh� `�i?

?Lh4@*�3i_ M) |�i i @U| �56,c |��t �L?|i �@h*L it|�4@|Lh �t @TThL �4@|i*) _�t�

|h�M�|i_ @t �E�c d2*go�� W? |�i U�hhi?| i Tih�4i?|@* _it�}?c g �t �fec tL |�i t|@?�

_@h_ _i��@|�L? Lu �U�56,*, �56, �t E2*�fe��*2 Lh @ML�| ��eI� W?Uhi@t�?} g

|i?uL*_ �L�*_ hi_�Ui |�i t|@?_@h_ _i��@|�L? |L L?*) @ML�| f�DIc @? �?_�U@|�L? Lu

|�i _��U�*|�it �? LM|@�?�?} ThiU�ti it|�4@|it M) t�U� �L?|i �@h*L |iU�?�^�it� 6Lh

UL4T@h�tL?c tii �?t*i) @?_ �i�ML*_ E�bHf�c ��L UL4T�|i �U�56, uLh ti�ih@* it|��

4@|Lht E�?U*�_�?} �w� Lu �@h�L�t �+�� ThLUittitc M�| �ti �fff Lh ui�ih hiT*�U@|�L?t

Tih i Tih�4i?|�

�L?|hL* �@h�@|it ThL��_i @ TL�ihu�* 4i|�L_ uLh �@h�@?Ui hi_�U|�L? Lu ?@��i �L?|i

�@h*L it|�4@|Lhtc @t _�tU�tti_ M) O@44iht*i) @?_ O@?_tUL4M E�bSe� @?_ Oi?_h)

E�bHe� �?|ih @*�@� AL Mi �tiu�*c @ UL?|hL* �@h�@|i E�V� t�L�*_ Mi ��}�*) ULhhi*@|i_ ��|�

|�i ?@��i it|�4@|Lh @?_ t�L�*_ �@�i @ !?L�? _�t|h�M�|�L?� �iU@�ti |�i T�hTLti Lu |�i

�L?|i �@h*L t|�_) �t |L it|�4@|i @ 4L4i?| ���U� �t �?!?L�?c |�Lti |�L ThLTih|�it

4�}�| @TTi@h |L UL?��U|� OL�i�ihc Lu|i? �| �t TLtt�M*i |L T@h|�|�L? @ t|@|�t|�U �?|L

@? @t)4T|L|�U UL4TL?i?| @?_ @ �?�|i t@4T*i L?ic ��|� |�i uLh4ih �@��?} @? i @U|

_�t|h�M�|�L?( Uu� Oi?_h) @?_ O@hh�tL? E�b.e� @?_ Oi?_h) E�bHe� L? _L�?} tL uLh

iUL?L4i|h�U it|�4@|Lht� A�i �L?|i �@h*L it|�4@|Lh �U�56, �@t @ ?@|�h@* UL?|hL*

�@h�@|i MiU@�ti |�i �ht| |ih4 L? |�i h�}�|��@?_ t�_i Lu |�i i^�@*�|) �? E2S� E@?_

4Lhi }i?ih@**)c Lu E�2�� �t i @U|*) ?Lh4@*c @?_ �?_iTi?_i?| Lu |�i tiUL?_ |ih4� A�i

�4T*�i_ UL?|hL* �@h�@|i E_i?L|i_ ���56,� �tG

���56, '�

g

g[&'�

%r3�[�'f

Eq��� � �&c?�nr3�

&2c E2H�

���U� �t i @U|*) _�t|h�M�|i_ @t �t)�56, � �2Eg�*g @?_ �@t @ 4i@? Lu �t)�56,(

tii @*tL 5iU|�L? e�� Mi*L��

A�i �V �t �ti_ |L hi_�Ui |�i t�4�*@|�L? �?Uih|@�?|) Lu |�i ?@��i it|�4@|Lh M)

t�M|h@U|�?} |�i �V uhL4 |�i ?@��i it|�4@|Lh E��|� ���U� �| �t TLt�|��i*) ULhhi*@|i_�

@?_ @__�?} M@U! |�i !?L�? 4i@? Lu |�i �V� A�i hit�*|�?} �L?|i �@h*L it|�4@|Lh �t

U@**i_ @ TLL*i_ it|�4@|Lh� Oihic |�i TLL*i_ it|�4@|Lh E�L�56,� �tG

�L�56, � �U�56,� ���56, n HE���56,�

' �t)�56, n�

g

g[&'�

kEqr

� � �qr� � +&c?�

l2� E2b�

2�

Page 26: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

�) UL?t|h�U|�L?c |�i TLL*i_ it|�4@|Lh �@t |�i t@4i i TiU|@|�L? @t |�i ?@��i it|�4@�

|Lh� W|t �@h�@?Ui �t t4@**ih |�@? |�@| Lu |�i ?@��i it|�4@|Lh M) |�i i |i?| |L ���U�

|�i �V �t ULhhi*@|i_ ��|� |�i ?@��i it|�4@|Lh� W? |�i Thiti?| U@tic |�i hi_�U|�L? �?

�@h�@?Ui �t LM��L�t MiU@�ti |�i �V �@t i*�4�?@|i_ |�i |ih4 �? |�i ?@��i it|�4@|Lh

���U� t�4�*@|it |�i @t)4T|L|�U �56,� A�@| �tc |�i ?@��i it|�4@|Lh �U�56, t�4��

*@|it @ |ih4 Lu �RE�� ��ihi@t |�i TLL*i_ it|�4@|Lh �L�56, t�4�*@|it @ |ih4 Lu L?*)

�RE?3��� A�i i�U�i?U) Lu |�i �V ��** �@h) @UhLtt i Tih�4i?|tc M�| uhL4 @ U�htLh)

UL4T@h�tL? Lu |�i ��U|�@|�L?t �? |�i ?@��i @?_ TLL*i_ it|�4@|itc |�i) @hi UL?t�_ih�

@M*i uLh |�i _it�}? U�Lti?� 6�h|�ihc |�i �V hi^��hit *�||*i @__�|�L?@* UL4T�|@|�L?@*

i Ti?_�|�hi MiU@�ti |�i @t)4T|L|�U �56, �t |h���@* |L U@*U�*@|i @?_ �t |�i t@4i uLh

@** ?� �? i�i? 4Lhi i�U�i?| �V �t ui@t�M*i M) �|�*�3�?} |�i @t)4T|L|�U _�t|h�M�|�L? Lu

rqr3�Eeq � q� uhL4 E2��c �? ���U� U@ti |�i TLL*i_ it|�4@|Lh t�4�*@|it @ |ih4 Lu L?*)

JRE?3�� �? |�i �56,� OL�i�ihc |��t �V �@t ?L| �4T*i4i?|i_c }��i? |�i UL?t�_ih@M*i

@UU�h@U) Lu |�i �V �? E2H��

�Lt|�i�@*�@|�L? �?@*)t�t� 6�}�hi � T*L|t �@*�it Lu |�i TLL*i_ �56, uLh ti�

*iU|i_ q @?_ ?c �? @__�|�L? |L |�i i @U| �56, uLh �w5c |�i @t)4T|L|�U �56,c @?_

|�i @TThL �4@|i �56,� 6Lh q ' f�2 ��|� ? ' �fc |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, �t i�i?

U*Ltih |L |�i i @U| �56, uLh �w |�@? |L |�i i @U| �56, uLh �w5� �| 4i_��4 @?_

*@h}i �@*�it Lu q Ef�. @?_ f�b� ��|� ? ' �fc |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, t|�** _Lit �i**c M�|

�| L�ih�it|�4@|it |�i i @U| �56, @| t�Lh| |L 4i_��4 �Lh�3L?t @?_ �?_ih�it|�4@|it

�| @| �ih) *L?} �Lh�3L?t� +i*@|i_*)c |�i ��4T tL i��_i?| �? |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, �t

*itt ThL?L�?Ui_ EM�| t|�** Thiti?|� �? |�i i @U| �56, uLh �w� 6Lh ? ' 2fc |�i _i���

@|�L?t Mi|�ii? |�i i @U| @?_ @TThL �4@|i �56, @hi 4�U� t4@**ih |�@? uLh ? ' �fc

@t i TiU|i_�

A�i u�** t�4�*@|�L? hit�*|t @TTi@h �? 6�}�hi e @t _i��@|�L?t Lu |�i TLL*i_ �56,t

uhL4 |�i @t)4T|L|�U @?_ @TThL �4@|i �56,tc T@h@**i*�?} 6�}�hi 2� AL UL?_i?ti

Thiti?|@|�L?c �@*�it uLh r : �f @TTi@h uLh r @| 4�*|�T*it Lu ��i� �| *L?} �Lh�3L?tc

|�i i @U|c @t)4T|L|�Uc @?_ @TThL �4@|i �56, @** U�@?}i t*L�*) @t @ u�?U|�L? Lu

r �? @?) U@ti� �** �@*�it Lu |�i hitTiU|��i �56,t @hi |@M�*@|i_ �? ,h�UttL? @?_

�@h^�i3 E�bHbc �TTi?_� #�� �t ��|� �w5c |�i @t)4T|L|�U �56, _Lit hi@tL?@M*)

�i** uLh t4@** |L 4i_��4 �@*�it Lu q @?_ uLh *@h}i ?c ��|� |�i @TThL �4@|i �56,

_L�?} Mi||ihc @?_ L�ih @ ��_ih h@?}i Lu q @?_ ?� �t ? �?Uhi@titc ML|� _i��@|�L?t

}i?ih@**) _iU*�?ic @t �L�*_ Mi i TiU|i_ MiU@�ti |�i i @U| �56, �t |i?_�?} |L |�i

@t)4T|L|�U �56,� N?*�!i ��|� �w5c |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, Lu|i? L�ih�it|�4@|it |�i

i @U| �56, uLh q �? |�i h@?}i Lu df�Hfc f�bDo� OL�i�ihc uLh q �ih) U*Lti |L |�i �?�|

U�hU*i Eq ' f�bb�c |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, @}@�? �?_ih�it|�4@|it |�i i @U| �56,�

A�i ML�?_i_?itt Lu |�i �w it|�4@|Lh �t @giU|�?} |�i i @U| �56, uLh *@h}i qc M�|

*�||*i 4Lhi U@? Mi t@�_ ��|�L�| UL?t�_ih�?} |ih4t t4@**ih |�@? �E?3�� �? |�i �56,�

,�i? tLc |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, Lgiht @ hi4@h!@M*) t�4T*i @?_ @UU�h@|i t�44@h)

Lu |�i Mi�@��Lh Lu |�i i @U| �56, uLh �w�

2e

Page 27: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

1 3 5 7 9 15 25

0.20

0.50

0.80

0.99

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

1 3 5 7 9 15 25

0.20

0.50

0.80

0.99

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

1 3 5 7 9 15 25

0.20

0.50

0.80

0.99

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

1 3 5 7 9 15 25

0.20

0.50

0.80

0.99

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

1 3 5 7 9 15 25

0.20

0.50

0.80

0.99

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

1 3 5 7 9 15 25

0.20

0.50

0.80

0.99

-30

-10

10

30

50 70

90

1 3 5 7 9 15 25

0.20

0.50

0.80

0.99

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

1 3 5 7 9 15 25

0.20

0.50

0.80

0.99

-30

-10

10

30

50 70

90

1 3 5 7 9 15 25

0.20

0.50

0.80

0.99

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

1 3 5 7 9 15 25

0.20

0.50

0.80

0.99

beta

Percent

Horizon

100[1-(AppMSFE/PoMSFE)]100[1-(AsyMSFE/PoMSFE)]

n=10

n=15

n=20

n=25

n=40

6�}�hi eG �ihUi?| _i��@|�L?t Lu |�i @t)4T|L|�U @?_ @TThL �4@|i �56,t uhL4 |�i

Eit|�4@|i_ TLL*i_� i @U| �56, uLh 4@ �4�4 *�!i*��LL_c @t @ u�?U|�L? Lu t@4T*i t�3i

?c uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L? rc @?_ @�|Lhi}hitt��i ULi�U�i?| q�

2D

Page 28: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

e�� �L?|i �@h*L 5�4�*@|�L? N?Uih|@�?|)

,�i? ���*i L4�||�?} @? �?|ihUiT|c |�i �+E�� 4L_i* �? E�.� �@t Mii? �tiu�* uLh _�t�

U�tt�?} }i?ih�U ThLTih|�it Lu |�i �56, uhL4 @ V�+ E5iU|�L? ��c i @U| hit�*|t uhL4

OL^�ic �@}?�tc @?_ �it@h@? E�bHH� E5iU|�L? e���c @?_ |�i t�4�*@|�L? uLh �w E5iU�

|�L? e�2�� OL�i�ihc |�i hL*i Lu @? �?U*�_i_ �?!?L�? �?|ihUiT| �t @*tL �4TLh|@?|c

ML|� MiU@�ti �?|ihUiT|t �t�@**) @TTi@h �? i4T�h�U@* 4L_i*t @?_ MiU@�ti �hU�|| @?_

`�?L!�h E�bSb�c �? @ T��L|@* �L?|i �@h*L t|�_) Lu |�i �+E�� 4L_i*c �?U*�_i @? �?|ih�

UiT|� A��tc |��t t�MtiU|�L? @?@*)3it �hU�|| @?_ `�?L!�h<t �L?|i �@h*L t�4�*@|�L?t

Lu �65,t uLh @? �+E�� 4L_i* ��|� @? �?|ihUiT|� W?U*�t�L? Lu @? �?|ihUiT| �t i@t�*)

�?ULhTLh@|i_ �?|L |�i 5U�4�_|��@�**�i @TThL �4@|�L?c @*Mi�| ��|� @ 4�?Lh |��t|� #i�

|@�*t @TTi@h �? ,h�UttL? @?_ �@h^�i3 E�bHbc �TTi?_� ��� ,t|�4@|�?} |�i �?|ihUiT|

�?|hL_�Uit @__�|�L?@* �?Uih|@�?|)c tL |�i hit�*|�?} @TThL �4@|i �56, �t @*�@)t *@h}ih

|�@? |�@| uLh i^�@|�L?t ��|� @ !?L�? �?|ihUiT|c i�i? �u E@t �? �hU�|| @?_ `�?L!�h<t

i Tih�4i?|t� |�i �?|ihUiT| �t 3ihL� A�i uh@4i�Lh! �? A@M*i 2 �_i?|��it |�L Uh�|�U@*

�tt�itG �4ThiU�t�L?c @?_ |�i *@U! Lu i �t|i?Ui Lu |�i �56, uLh tL4i Lu �hU�|| @?_

`�?L!�h<t i Tih�4i?|t�

#it�}?� �hU�|| @?_ `�?L!�h<t �L?|i �@h*L t|�_) i�@*�@|it ?�4ihL�t u@Ui|t Lu

|�i �+E�� 4L_i* it|�4@|i_ M) �w5� �t T@h| Lu |�i�h t|�_)c |�i) it|�4@|i M) �L?|i

�@h*L |�i i @U| �56, uLh |�i �+E�� 4L_i* ��|� @? �?|ihUiT|G

+| ' � n q+|3� n �| �| � W� Efc j2� | ' 2c � � � c ?n 7 c E�f�

��ihi � �t |�i �?|ihUiT|� A�i�h _it�}? �t @ u�** u@U|Lh�@* LuG

� ' fc

q ' Ef�fc f��c f�Sc f�bc ��f�c

? ' E�fc 2fc ef�c @?_

r ' E�c 2c �c e� d7 ' eo�

,^�@|�L? E�f� U@? Mi �h�||i? @t @ |�L�i^�@|�L? �iht�L? Lu Ee�c ��|� |�i �ht|

i^�@|�L? Mi�?} |�i �+E�� ThLUitt @?_ |�i tiUL?_ i^�@|�L? _i�?�?} |�i �?|ihUiT| � G

+| '

%+�|+2|

&' �+|3� n �|

'

%q �

f �

&� +|3� n

%��|f

&c E���

��ihi +2� ' �c w ' E� q��c @?_ � ' E� f��� A�i �iU|Lht @?_ 4@|h�Uit ?iUitt@h) uLh

tL*��?} E�S� uL**L� _�hiU|*)c ��|� |�i hit�*|�?} uLhiU@t| ihhLh Mi�?}G

ee?nr 'r3�[�'f

q��?nr3� n Eqr � eqr� � +? n �

r3�[�'f

Eq� � eq�� n E� � e� � r3�[

�'f

eq�� E�2�

2S

Page 29: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

A�i �ht| |�L |ih4t L? |�i h�}�|��@?_ t�_i Lu E�2� @hi |�i t@4i @t �? E�b�c |�i |��h_

|ih4 @h�tit uhL4 �@��?} @ ?L?3ihL �?|ihUiT| � c @?_ |�i uL�h|� |ih4 �t |�i UL?|h�M�|�L?

uhL4 it|�4@|�?} h@|�ih |�@? !?L��?} � �

,�@*�@|�L?� �hU�|| @?_ `�?L!�h �ti �fff hiT*�U@|�L?t Tih i Tih�4i?| @?_ it|��

4@|i |�i �56,t @t �? E2.�c |�@| �tc ��|�L�| @?) �@h�@?Ui�hi_�U|�L? |iU�?�^�it� B��i?

|�i �4ThiU�t�L? Lu ?@��i �L?|i �@h*L uLh i�i? �fc fff hiT*�U@|�L?t �? 5iU|�L? e�2c |��t

t�MtiU|�L? _ih��it @? @TThL �4@|i *L�ih ML�?_ L? |�i �?Uih|@�?|) Lu �L?|i �@h*L

it|�4@|it Lu |�i i @U| �56,� A��t ML�?_ �t �@*�_ uLh |�i �+E�� 4L_i* ML|� ��|� @?_

��|�L�| it|�4@|�?} @? �?|ihUiT|c @?_ �| }i?ih@*�3it t|h@�}�|uLh�@h_*) |L |�i �56,

uhL4 @ }i?ih@* *�?i@h _)?@4�U t)t|i4 M) �t�?} @ `�t�@h| h@|�ih |�@? @ �2 _�t|h�M��

|�L?�

W? E�2�c @?_ tL �? E�b� @?_ E�2�c |�i tL�hUi Lu �?�ihi?| �?Uih|@�?|) �t �?_iTi?_i?|

uhL4 |�@| Lu ULi�U�i?| �?Uih|@�?|)� 6Lh �?t|@?Uic �? @ �L?|i �@h*L @?@*)t�t t�U� @t

�hU�|| @?_ `�?L!�h<tc @** |�i �| @hi t�4�*@|i_( |��tc ML|� |�i u�|�hi ihhLht �?nr3�

@?_ |�i eq @hi t�4�*@|i_� A�i uL**L��?} _ih��@|�L? �}?Lhit |�i *@||ih igiU| MiU@�ti

|�i �ht| _L4�?@|itc @| *i@t| uLh *@h}i ?� 6hL4 �?_iTi?_i?Uic |�@| hit�*|t �? @ *L�ih

ML�?_ L? |�i @ttLU�@|i_ �@h�@M�*�|) uhL4 �L?|i �@h*L t�4�*@|�L?�

W}?Lh�?} ULi�U�i?| �?Uih|@�?|)c |�i uLhiU@t| ihhLht ee?nr @hi @ *�?i@h UL4M�?@|�L?

Lu |�i u�|�hi t�LU!t �&c?nr3�G

ee?nr ' E+&c?nr � e+&c?nr� �'r3�[�'f

Eq�� � �&c?nr3� � E���

A�i �&c?nr3� @hi �L�?|*) ?Lh4@*c tL |�i *�?i@h UL4M�?@|�L? Lu |�i4 L? |�i h�}�|��@?_

t�_i �t ?Lh4@*Gr3�[�'f

Eq�� � �&c?nr3� � �Efc�t)�56,� � E�e�

A�i �L?|i �@h*L it|�4@|Lh Lu |�i �56, �t |�i @�ih@}i Lu |�i t^�@hi_ uLhiU@t| ihhLhtG

�U�56, 'g[&'�

E+&c?nr � e+&c?nr�2g

�@RR

�t)�56, � �2Eg�

gc E�D�

��ihi |�i @TThL �4@|�L? �? _�t|h�M�|�L? hi�iU|t |�i @TThL �4@|�L? �? E���� �iU@�ti

|�i �ht| |�L 4L4i?|t Lu @ �2Eg� @hi g @?_ 2gc @?_ MiU@�ti g |)T�U@**) �t ^��|i

*@h}ic |�i uL**L��?} @TThL �4@|�L? �t �tiu�*G

�U�56,

, �56,�' �U�56,

�t)�56,�@RR

�2Eg�

g�@RR

���c

�2

g

��� E�S�

A�@| �tc |�i it|�4@|i_ �56, �t �?M�@ti_ uLh |�i i @U| �56,c ��|� @ TihUi?| t|@?_@h_

_i��@|�L? @TThL �4@|i*) i^�@* |L �ff � E2*g��*2� N?M�@ti_?itt �t @? i @U| hit�*|c

uL**L��?} _�hiU|*) uhL4 |�i it|�4@|i_ �56, Mi�?} @ t@4T*i 4i@? Lu |�i i @U| �56,�

�L?|i �@h*L t�4�*@|�L? �?_�U@|it |�@| |�i @TThL �4@|�L? ihhLht �? E�S� @hi t4@** uLh

2.

Page 30: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

|�i �@*�it Lu Eqc ?c r� �? Ei�}�� OL^�ic �@}?�tc @?_ �it@h@?<t E�bHH� _it�}? @?_ ��|�

g � �ff� �hU�|| @?_ `�?L!�h E�bSb� �ti g ' �fffc tL |�i bDI UL?�_i?Ui �?|ih�@*

L? @ |)T�U@* it|�4@|i �? |�i�h t|�_) �t @TThL �4@|i*) b�fI� ��hi*) ?�4ih�U@* E?L?�

@?@*)|�U@*� U@*U�*@|�L? Lu |�i �L?|i �@h*L �?Uih|@�?|) �t @*tL ui@t�M*ic @t �? �@*3L*@h�

@?_ 5|ihMi?3 E�bHS��

�t �? 5iU|�L? e�2c |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, ThL��_it @ �tiu�* Mi?U�4@h! uLh |�i

�L?|i �@h*L it|�4@|it Lu |�i i @U| �56,� 6�**ih @?_ O@t3@ E�bHf� _ih��i @ uLh4�*@

uLh |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, _�hiU|*) uhL4 E�2�� OL�i�ihc �? �hU�|| @?_ `�?L!�h<t

i Tih�4i?|tc � ' f �? u@U|c t�4T*�u)�?} E�2�c [c @?_ �i?Ui K @?_ (Er�� W? �hU�||

@?_ `�?L!�h<t U@tic |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, �tG

�TT�56, ' j2#�� Eq2�r

�� q2

$n E?3� � j2� �

57Erqr3��2 n

#�� qr

�� q

$268 c E�.�

��ihi +2�? �t ti| |L j2*E�� q2�c �|t �?UL?_�|�L?@* i TiU|@|�L?� A�i �ht| |ih4 L? |�i

h�}�|��@?_ t�_i Lu E�.� �t |�i @t)4T|L|�U �56, @?_ �t |�i t@4i @t ��i? |�i �?|ihUiT|

�t !?L�?� A�i �ht| |ih4 �? |�i Mh@Uit �t |�i igiU| uhL4 it|�4@|�?} q E@t �? E2���( |�i

tiUL?_ |ih4 �t uhL4 it|�4@|�?} � @?_ �t @__�|�L?@* |L ��@| @TTi@ht �? E2��� A�iti

|�hii |ih4t @h�ti uhL4 |�i �ht|c tiUL?_c @?_ uL�h|� |ih4t L? |�i h�}�|��@?_ t�_i Lu

E�2��

,^�@|�L? E�.� ThL��_it ML|� |�i @t)4T|L|�U @?_ @TThL �4@|i �56,t uLh |�i�h

�L?|i �@h*Lc ��|� L?i i UiT|�L?� ,^�@|�L? E�.� �t ?L| �@*�_ uLh q ' �c tL q ' f�bbbb �t

�ti_ �?t|i@_� A�@| t�L�*_ E@?_ _Lit� Lgih @ }LL_ @TThL �4@|�L?c }��i? |�i _��U�*|)

�? �?�|i t@4T*it Lu _�t|�?}��t��?} Mi|�ii? @ �?�| hLL| @?_ @ hLL| U*Lti |L EM�| *itt

|�@?� �?�|)�

�Lt|�i�@*�@|�L? �?@*)t�t� A�L �tt�it @hi Lu UL?Uih?G |�i @UU�h@U) Lu |�i

it|�4@|i_ i @U| �56,t @?_ |�i i �t|i?Ui Lu |�i i @U| �56,t |�i4ti*�it� A�i

}h@T�t �? 6�}�hi D T*L| |�i TihUi?| _�tUhiT@?U�it Lu |�i @t)4T|L|�U @?_ @TThL �4@|i

�56,t uhL4 �hU�|| @?_ `�?L!�h<t it|�4@|i_ i @U| �56,t� A�i L�ih@** T@||ih?

T@h@**i*t |�@| �? 6�}�hit ��eG |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, }i?ih@**) u@hit Mi||ih |�@? |�i

@t)4T|L|�U �56,c ��|� |�i *@||ih @*4Lt| �?�@h�@M*) �?_ihit|�4@|�?} |�i it|�4@|i_

i @U| �56,� �L|� |�i @t)4T|L|�U @?_ @TThL �4@|i �56, u@hi Mi||ih uLh *@h}ih

? @?_ t4@**ih q� 6hL4 E�S�c |�i t|@?_@h_ ihhLh uLh |�i�h it|�4@|i_ i @U| �56, �t

@ML�| e�DIc tL |�i _�tUhiT@?U�it Mi|�ii? |�i�h it|�4@|it @?_ |�i @TThL �4@|i �56,t

@TTi@h |L Mi _�i @*4Lt| i U*�t��i*) |L t�4�*@|�L? �?Uih|@�?|)� A�i @UU�h@U) Lu |�i

@TThL �4@|i �56, �ihi @?_ uLh |�i �+E�� 4L_i* �? 5iU|�L?t e���e�2 @__t |L ��L?}

@?_ Oi?_h)<t E�bHS� �L?|i �@h*L i��_i?Ui L? |�i @UU�h@U) Lu |�i �@�**�i�5U�4�_|

@TThL �4@|�L? uLh @ |�L�i^�@|�L? 4L_i*�

�@}?�t @?_ �it@h@? E�bHb� t�L� |�@| |�i i @U| �56, i �t|t uLh |�i �+E�� 4L_i*

��|� @? it|�4@|i_ �?|ihUiT| �u @?_ L?*) �u |�i uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L? r �t ?L| }hi@|ih |�@?

E? � ��*2� W?|ihit|�?}*)c |�i i @U| �56, _Lit ?L| i �t| uLh �hU�|| @?_ `�?L!�h<t

2H

Page 31: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

-10

10

30

50

0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1

12

34

-10

10

30

50

0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1

1

23

4

-10

10

30

50

0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1

12

34

-10

10

30

50

0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1

12

34

-10

10

30

50

0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1

12

34

-10

10

30

50

0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1

12

34

Percent

beta

Horizon

100[1-(AppMSFE/ExMSFE)]100[1-(AsyMSFE/ExMSFE)]

n=10

n=20

n=40

6�}�hi DG �ihUi?| _i��@|�L?t Lu |�i @t)4T|L|�U @?_ @TThL �4@|i �56,t uhL4 �L?|i

�@h*L it|�4@|it Lu |�i i @U| �56, �? �hU�|| @?_ `�?L!�h E�bSb��

2b

Page 32: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

i Tih�4i?|t ��|� E? ' �fc r ' e�c )i| |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, t|�** _Lit ^��|i �i** @|

@TThL �4@|�?} |�i�h it|�4@|it� A��t t�hTh�t�?} hit�*| U@? Mi �?|ihThi|i_ @t uL**L�t�

6Lh �@*�it Lu r uLh ���U� |�i i @U| �56, _Lit ?L| i �t|c |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, t|�**

U@? Mi U@*U�*@|i_c @?_ �| 4@) ThL��_i @UU�h@|i UL?�_i?Ui �?|ih�@*t uLh |�i uLhiU@t|t�

OL�i�ihc MiU@�ti |�ihi �t @ t�}?��U@?| ThLM@M�*�|) Lu eq Mi�?} }hi@|ih |�@? �?�|) @?_

|��t U@�t�?} |�i uLhiU@t| ihhLh |L i T*L_i uLh *@h}i rc |�i |@�*t Lu |�i i @U| _i?t�|)

Lu |�i uLhiU@t| ihhLh @hi |LL |��U! uLh �|t �@h�@?Ui |L i �t|� 5@h}@? E�bH2� i @4�?it

@ t�4�*@h t�|�@|�L? �? ���U� @? it|�4@|Lh �t �i**�Mi�@�i_ @t)4T|L|�U@**) M�| �@t ?L

4L4i?|t �? �?�|i t@4T*it� W? *�}�| Lu ��t T@Tihc |�i @TThL �4@|�L? �? E�S� 4@) Mi

�?|ihThi|i_ @t @?@*L}L�t |L |�i �@}@h @TThL �4@|�L? uLh |�i 4L4i?|t Lu @? it|�4@|Lh�

�L?�ihti*)c |�i *@U! Lu i �t|i?Ui Lu |�i i @U| �56, E��i? |�@| LUU�ht� 4�t| Mi _�i

|L |ih4t t4@**ih |�@? �RE?3�� �? |�i t^�@hi_ uLhiU@t| ihhLh E��i�c JRE?

3�� @?_ ThLM@M*)

�RE?3�*2�� MiU@�ti |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, @UUL�?|t uLh @** |ih4t �RE?

3�� @?_ *@h}ihc

@?_ |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, i �t|t uLh @** r�

+i4@h!t� �iuLhi |�h?�?} |L |�i i4T�h�U@* uLhiU@t|t �? 5iU|�L? Dc ��i �tt�it

@hi �Lh|� Mh�iu 4i?|�L?G t@4T*i t�3ic i L}i?L�t �@h�@M*itc 4L_i* *�?i@h�|)c uLhiU@t|

�Lh�3L?tc @?_ |�i |hi@|4i?| Lu +?�

6�ht|c |�i t4@**it| t@4T*i t�3i �? |�i t�4�*@|�L?t @ML�i E? ' �f� �t �ih) t4@**

�? |�i UL?|i | Lu i4T�h�U@* �Lh!� OL�i�ihc �| 4@) Mi @ hi@tL?@M*i ?�4Mih |L �ti

uLh UL4T@h�tL? ��|� i4T�h�U@* �Lh!c }��i? |�@| L?*) L?i Lh |�L ULi�U�i?|t @hi Mi�?}

it|�4@|i_� A�i t@4T*i t�3i hi*@|��i |L |�i ?�4Mih Lu ULi�U�i?|t �t @ T*@�t�M*i 4i@t�hi

�? |��t UL?|i |( Uu� 5@h}@? E�b.D�� 5�?Ui 4�U� i4T�h�U@* �Lh! �?�L*�it ui�ih |�@? |i?

LMtih�@|�L?t Tih ULi�U�i?| it|�4@|i_c ? ' �f 4@) Mi *@h}i h@|�ih |�@? t4@** uLh

Th@U|�U@* T�hTLtit�

5iUL?_c uLhiU@t|t Lu i?_L}i?L�t �@h�@M*it Lu|i? @hi M@ti_ L? uLhiU@t|t Eh@|�ih

|�@? !?L�? �@*�it� Lu i L}i?L�t �@h�@M*itc @__�?} @?L|�ih tL�hUi Lu �?Uih|@�?|)�

A�i @*}iMh@ Lu 5iU|�L? � hi@_�*) @__hittit |��t MiU@�ti �| @?@*)3it @ UL4T*i|i t)t�

|i4G i L}i?L�t �@h�@M*it U@? Mi �?U*�_i_ �? |�i t)t|i4 �? |�i t@4i 4@??ih @t

|�i i?_L}i?L�t �@h�@M*itc M�| |�i uLh4ih @hi ?L| t�4�*|@?iL�t*) _i|ih4�?i_ ��|�

|�i i?_L}i?L�t �@h�@M*it ?Lh @hi |�i) Bh@?}ih�U@�ti_ M) |�i i?_L}i?L�t �@h�@M*it�

OL�i�ihc uLh i�i? hi*@|��i*) t4@** t)t|i4tc |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, �? E�S� U@? Mi�

UL4i @�!�@h_ |L UL4T�|i MiU@�ti Lu |�i *@h}i 4@|h�Uit @h�t�?} uhL4 �iU|Lh�3�?} @?_

uhL4 khL?iU!ih ThL_�U|t� �@*3L*@h� E�bH.� ThL��_it @? �?}i?�L�t @?@*)|�U@* |iU�?�^�i

|�@| U@? _h@4@|�U@**) hi_�Ui |�i UL4T�|@|�L?@* M�h_i?c 4@!�?} U@*U�*@|�L? Lu |�i

@TThL �4@|i �56, ui@t�M*i uLh 4i_��4� |L *@h}i�tU@*i 4L_i*t� �?i @*|ih?@|��i �t |L

t�4�*@|i t|LU�@t|�U i L}i?L�t �@h�@M*it �? |�i U@*U�*@|�L? Lu uLhiU@t|t ThLTih|�itc @t

�? O@�|L�t!) @?_ @**@Ui E�b.2� @?_ 6@�h E�bHf��

A��h_c |�i t)t|i4 �? 5iU|�L? � �t *�?i@h� �?@*)|�U @TThL �4@|�L?t |L UL?�_i?Ui �?�

|ih�@*t UL�*_ Mi UL?t|h�U|i_ uLh ?L?*�?i@h i^�@|�L?t ELh t)t|i4t� @t �i**c M�| �@h�@?L

@?_ �hL�? E�bH�� t�L� |�@| t�4�*@|�L? 4@) Mi Thiuih@M*ic ?L| L?*) uLh |�i �56,

M�| uLh |�i uLhiU@t| �|ti*u� W? |�i UL?|i | Lu E�2�c ML|� |�i �?nr3� @?_ |�i e� �L�*_

�f

Page 33: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

Mi hiT*�U@|i_ @ ?�4Mih Lu |�4it M) �L?|i �@h*L t�4�*@|�L? @UULh_�?} |L |�i�h it|��

4@|i_ _�t|h�M�|�L?tc @?_ �L?|i �@h*L it|�4@|it Lu |�i uLhiU@t| 4i@? @?_ |�i �56,

�L�*_ Mi UL?t|h�U|i_ uhL4 |�i hit�*|�?} Tti�_L�uLhiU@t|t� 6L**L��?} |��t @TThL@U�c

��@?U��c �@*3L*@h�c @?_ �h�**i| E�bH.� it|�4@|i �56,t uhL4 @ 4�*|��tiU|Lh@* 4L_i*

Lu |�i 6hi?U� iUL?L4)c @?_ 5iU|�L? D EMi*L�� @?_ �@h^�i3 @?_ ,h�UttL? E�bb�� it�

|�4@|i 4i@? uLhiU@t|t @?_ �56,t uhL4 �@h�L�t 4L_i*t Lu |�i N�5� |h@_i M@*@?Ui�

�@h^�i3 E�bb�� @TT*�it |��t t�4�*@|�L? @TThL@U� |L it|�4@|i UL?�_i?Ui �?|ih�@*t uLh

|�i hitTL?ti Lu |�i N�5� |h@_i M@*@?Ui |L @*|ih?@|��i i U�@?}i h@|i hi@*�3@|�L?t� A�@|

@?@*)t�t i @4�?it |�i ti?t�|���|) Lu |�i UL?�_i?Ui �?|ih�@*t |L |�i |�L |)Tit Lu �?�

Uih|@�?|) @__hitti_ �ihi� O�t @TT*�U@|�L? @*tL _i4L?t|h@|it |�@| |�i �?Uih|@�?|) Lu

ULi�U�i?| it|�4@|it U@? �@�i �4T*�U@|�L?t uLh iUL?L4�U ^�it|�L?t L|�ih |�@? ��t|

|�Lti _i@*�?} ��|� uLhiU@t|tc i�}�c T@|�t Lu _)?@4�U 4�*|�T*�iht�

6L�h|�c |�i 4@ �4�4 Lu |�i �56, L�ih @** uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L?t 4@) LUU�h @| @

hi*@|��i*) t�Lh| uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L?� ,t|�4@|i_ @�|Lhi}hitt��i ULi�U�i?|t �? _)?@4�U

iUL?L4i|h�U 4L_i*t h@?}i uhL4 |�i �ih) t4@** Ei�}�c uLh i^�@|�L?t �? �ht| _�gihi?Uit�

|L |�Lti U*Lti |L �?�|) Ei�}�c uLh i^�@|�L?t �? *i�i*t�� ,�i? uLh |�i ULhhitTL?_�?} E@?_

��_i� h@?}i Lu �@*�it uLh qc |�i 4@ �4�4 Lu |�i @TThL �4@|i �56, �t Lu|i? Mi|�ii?

L?i @?_ |�i*�i Tih�L_tc ThiU�ti*) |�i h@?}i L�ih ���U� iUL?L4�t|t @hi Lu|i? �?|ihit|i_

�? uLhiU@t|�?} 4Lt| @UU�h@|i*)� A�@| �t @*tL |�i h@?}i uLh ���U� |�i @t)4T|L|�U �56,

@TTi@ht |�i TLLhit| @TThL �4@|�L? |L |�i @TThL �4@|i @?_ i @U| �56,� W? u@U|c |�i

@t)4T|L|�U �56, }i?ih@**) �?_ihit|�4@|it |�i @TThL �4@|i E@?_ i @U|� �56, uLh

�?�|i �Lh�3L?tc @?_ |�i uLh4ih ?ii_ ?L| i�i? Mi |�i 4@�? UL4TL?i?| Lu |�i *@||ih�

6�u|�c �? @U|�@* uLhiU@t|�?}c +? �t }��i?c �? ���U� U@ti |�i UL?_�|�L?@* �56,

tii4t 4Lhi @TThLTh�@|i |�@? |�i �?UL?_�|�L?@* �56,� �| @?L|�ih *i�i*c +? �t Lu|i?

t�M�iU| |L _@|@ hi��t�L?tc tL �| 4@) Mi �?�@*�_ |L |hi@| �|t E*@|i?|� �@*�i @t !?L�?( tii

Ah��i**@|L @?_ +i||Lhi E�bHS�c B@**L E�bb�c �bbS�c @?_ �*i4i?|t @?_ Oi?_h) E�bbH@��

N?Uih|@�?|) uhL4 _@|@ hi��t�L? }Lit Mi)L?_ |�i U�hhi?| @?@*)t�tc @*Mi�| ���*i u@**�?}

��|��? |�i uh@4i�Lh! Lu 5iU|�L? 2�

D ��@tit �? 6LhiU@t|t uhL4 �L?*�?i@h �L_i*t

A��t tiU|�L? @?@*)3it |�i uLhiU@t|t Lu |�i N�5� |h@_i M@*@?Ui uhL4 uL�h t|h�U|�h@* @?_

|�L |�4i�tih�it 4L_i*tc _i?L|i_ �L_i*t ����S� �** M�| L?i Lu |�iti 4L_i*t �t ?L?�

*�?i@hc tL |�i M�@tit @ttLU�@|i_ ��|� _i|ih4�?�t|�U uLhiU@t|t uhL4 ?L?*�?i@h 4L_i*t @hi

i @4�?i_� �** t� 4L_i*t �@�i t|@|�t|�U@**) t�}?��U@?| M�@tit uLh 4Lt| uLhiU@t| Tih�L_tc

M�| L?*) |�hii 4L_i*t �@�i iUL?L4�U@**) t�}?��U@?| M�@titc ���U� @hi Th�4@h�*) uLh

r�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|t @| *L?}ih �Lh�3L?t� W4ThiU�t�L? �? |�i �L?|i �@h*L t�4�*@|�L?

Lu |�i M�@tit �t @ UL?Uih?c @t �| �@t �? t�4�*@|�?} |�i �56, uLh �w �? 5iU|�L? e�2�

W? ML|� �?t|@?Uitc �@h�@?Ui�hi_�U|�L? |iU�?�^�it hi_�Ui |�@| �4ThiU�t�L?� Oihic @?�

|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it @hi �ti_ MiU@�ti |�i @t)4T|L|�U ThLTih|�it uLh UL?t|h�U|�?} UL?|hL*

��

Page 34: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

�@h�@|it @hi ?L| hi@_�*) @�@�*@M*ic @*|�L�}� 5|ihMi?3 @?_ �@*3L*@h� E�bbf� }��i L?i

TL|i?|�@* @TThL@U�� A�i *@U! Lu @?@*)|�U@* hit�*|t T*@Uit @? i�i? }hi@|ih Thi4��4 L?

i�U�i?| �L?|i �@h*L @?@*)t�t� A�i *@t| �Lh�3L?|@* M*LU! �? A@M*i 2 t�44@h�3it |�i

uLhiU@t|t< _it�}?c i�@*�@|�L?c @?_ TLt|�i�@*�@|�L? @?@*)t�t� A�hL�}�L�| |��t tiU|�L?c

|�i uLhiU@t| M�@t �t @tt�4i_ |L i �t|c TLtt�M*) hi^��h�?} UL?_�|�L?t L? |�i it|�4@|�L?

t@4T*i t�3i hi*@|��i |L |�i uLhiU@t| �Lh�3L? �?|ih @*�@c @t �? |�i *�?i@h @�|Lhi}hitt��i

4L_i*( tii �@}?�t @?_ �it@h@? E�bb���

D�� #it�}?

A��t t�MtiU|�L? _itUh�Mit |�i 4L_i*t |L Mi @?@*)3i_ @?_ |�i ULhhitTL?_�?} uLhiU@t|t

Lu �?|ihit|� A�i �ht| t|h�U|�h@* 4L_i* �t |�@| _i�i*LTi_ �? Oi*!�i @?_ OLLTih E�bHH�(

|�i hi4@�?�?} |�hii t|h�U|�h@* 4L_i*t @hi |hi@|i_ @t �@h�@|�L?t L? �|� A�i iUL?L�

4i|h�U 4L_i* Lu N�5� |h@_i �? Oi*!�i @?_ OLLTih E�bHH� E�L_i* ��� �t @ ti| Lu uL�h

i^�@|�L?t i T*@�?�?} |�i *L}@h�|�4t Lu �4TLh| @?_ i TLh| Th�Uit @?_ �L*�4it� A�i

Oi*!�i�OLLTih 4L_i* 4@!it @ �@h�i|) Lu @tt�4T|�L?t �? |�Lti i^�@|�L?t hi}@h_�?}

i L}i?i�|)c _)?@4�Utc it|�4@|�L? |iU�?�^�ic @?_ *i�i* Lu |h@_i _�t@}}hi}@|�L?c @?_

|�iti @tt�4T|�L?t @hi 4L_��i_ �? �L_i*t �2��e� �L_i* �2 @**L�t uLh @ ?L?�

_�@}L?@* ihhLh UL�@h�@?Ui 4@|h� @?_ tL �tit 6�** W?uLh4@|�L? �@ �4�4 w�!i*��LL_

E6W�w� |L it|�4@|i |�i ULi�U�i?|t� �L_i* �� 4L_��it @tt�4T|�L?t L? h@|�L?�?}

@?_ _)?@4�Ut� �L_i* �ec uhL4 �@h^�i3 E�bHb�c _�t@}}hi}@|it |L M�*@|ih@* |h@_i

�L�t� �L_i* �D �t @ uL�h|��Lh_ihc uL�h��@h�@M*i V�+ uLh |�i *L}@h�|�4t Lu i TLh|

@?_ �4TLh| �L*�4it @?_ Th�Ui �?_�Uit( @?_ �L_i* �S �t @? �+E�� 4L_i* Lu |�i *i�i*

Lu |�i ?L4�?@* |h@_i M@*@?Ui� #i|@�*t Lu |�i 4L_i*t @TTi@h �? �@h^�i3 @?_ ,h�UttL?

E�bb��� �*|�L�}� |�i U�L�Ui Lu 4L_i*t �t ?L| i �@�t|��ic |�i Oi*!�i�OLLTih 4L_i* �t

��_i*) �ti_ �? |�i *�|ih@|�hic @?_ V�+t @?_ �?��@h�@|i |�4i�tih�it 4L_i*t @hi Lu|i?

|@!i? @t ?L?�t|h�U|�h@* @*|ih?@|��it�

6Lh |�i U�hhi?| T�hTLtitc |�i ?L4�?@* |h@_i M@*@?Ui �t |�i �@h�@M*i Lu �?|ihit|� W|

�t U@*U�*@|i_ @t |�i _�gihi?Ui Mi|�ii? ?L4�?@* i TLh| @?_ �4TLh| �@*�itc �4T*)�?}

|�@| 4L_i*t ����D @hi ?L?*�?i@h uLh |�i |h@_i M@*@?Uic ML|� |�hL�}� |�i *L}*�?i@h

tTiU��U@|�L? Lu |�i Mi�@��Lh@* i^�@|�L?t @?_ uhL4 4�*|�T*)�?} Th�Uit @?_ �L*�4it |L

LM|@�? ?L4�?@* |h@_i �L�t�

D�2 ,�@*�@|�L?

A��t t�MtiU|�L? _itUh�Mit _i|ih4�?�t|�U uLhiU@t|tc |�i ?@|�hi Lu |�i M�@t uhL4 |�iti

uLhiU@t|tc ?@��i �L?|i �@h*L ThLUi_�hit uLh it|�4@|�?} |�@| M�@tc @?_ |�i �@h�@?Ui�

hi_�U|�L? |iU�?�^�i R@?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it� E�Vt�c ���U� U@? hi_�Ui |�i �4ThiU�t�L? Lu

|�i it|�4@|i_ M�@t�

#i|ih4�?�t|�U uLhiU@t|t @hi @ UL44L? 4i|�L_ �? uLhiU@t|�?} @?_ �ihi E�4T*�U�|*)�

|�i uLhiU@t|t @?@*)3i_ �? 5iU|�L?t � @?_ e� 6Lh4@**)c _i|ih4�?�t|�U uLhiU@t|t tL*�i E2�

�2

Page 35: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

?�4ih�U@**)c ti||�?} w i^�@* |L �|t �?�t@4T*i it|�4@|i_ �@*�i ew @?_ �?nr i^�@* |L �|t

i TiU|i_ �@*�i E�t�@**) 3ihL�� A�i @ttLU�@|i_ L?i�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|t B?nr @hiG

B?nr ' � �}E+?nr3�c 5?nrc ewc f� c r ' �c � � � c 7 � E�H�

A�i r�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|t �ti |�i t@4i uLh4�*@c M�| ��|� B?nr3� hiT*@U�?} +?nr3�Er ' 2c � � � c 7�� ,^�@|�L? E�H� �t UL4T�|@|�L?@**) t�4T*i |L �4T*i4i?| uLh ML|� L?i�

t|iT @?_ r�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|tc M�|c M) �}?Lh�?} ew @?_ �?nr @t tL�hUit Lu h@?_L4?ittc

�| }i?ih@|it M�@ti_ uLhiU@t|t uLh ?L?*�?i@h }E��� ��@t @h�tit MiU@�ti |�i i TiU|@|�L?

Lu @ ?L?*�?i@h u�?U|�L? �t ?L| �t�@**) i^�@* |L |�i u�?U|�L? Lu |�i i TiU|@|�L?t� A�@|

�tc |�i UL?_�|�L?@* i TiU|@|�L? Lu � �+?nr �tG

>?nr � HE� �}Ee+?nr3�c 5?nrc ewc �?nr��9' B?nr � � �}EB?nr3�c 5?nrc eHEew�c HE�?nr�� c r ' �c � � � c 7 c E�b�

��ihi e+? ' B? � +?c HE�� �t |�i i TiU|@|�L?t LTih@|Lhc @?_ |�i i TiU|@|�L?t �? E�b�

@hi @tt�4i_ |L i �t|� 6Lh �L_i*t ����Dc }E�� �t |�i �iU|Lh Lu i^�@|�L?t uLh �4TLh|

@?_ i TLh| Th�Uit @?_ �L*�4itc @?_ @__�|�L?@**) }E�� �?U*�_it |�i �_i?|�|) _i�?�?} |�i?L4�?@* |h@_i M@*@?Ui� A�i ti*iU|�L? 4@|h� � i |h@U|t |�i ?L4�?@* |h@_i M@*@?Ui

uhL4 }E��� ,�i? �u |�i ULi�U�i?|t @hi !?L�?c M�@t i �t|t MiU@�ti |�i _�t|�hM@?Uit

i?|ih }E�� ?L?*�?i@h*)��f 5ii �@}@h E�bSb�c OL�hi) @?_ ki*i��@? E�bSb�c @?_ �@*3L*@h�

E�b.b� �?|ih @*�@ uLh i@h*) t|�_�it |�@| hiUL}?�3i t)t|i4@|�U M�@tit �? _i|ih4�?�t|�U

uLhiU@t|t @h�t�?} uhL4 4L_i* ?L?*�?i@h�|�it� �Lhi hiUi?| t|�_�it �?U*�_i �@h�@?L @?_

�hL�? E�bH��c @**�t E�bHe�c 6@�h E�bHec �bHH�c 6�t�ih @?_ 5@*4L? E�bHS�c @?_ �hL�?

@?_ �@h�@?L E�bHb�� @**�t E�bbD� ThL��_it @ *�U�_ L�ih��i� Lu _i|ih4�?�t|�U uLhiU@t|

M�@t @?_ L|�ih �tt�it @h�t�?} ��|� *@h}i�tU@*i 4@UhLiUL?L4i|h�U 4L_i*t�

A�i M�@t Lu |�i _i|ih4�?�t|�U uLhiU@t| �t >?nr � B?nr� �*4Lt| M) @tt�4T|�L?c

>?nr �t ?L| !?L�? @?@*)|�U@**)( @?_ LM|@�?�?} �|t �@*�i ?�4ih�U@**) �t @ UL4T*�U@|i_

ThLUitt �?�L*��?} 4�*|�T*i �?|i}h@|�L?c ��i�c |�i �?|i}h@* E��c ��|� }E�� �? E2� Mi�?}

|�i ��L*i |h@_i 4L_i*� A�i _��U�*|�it �? ?�4ih�U@**) i�@*�@|�?} E�� t|i4 uhL4 ML|�

|�i ?�4Mih Lu h@?_L4 �@h�@M*it @?_ |�i @Mti?Ui Lu @ U*Lti_�uLh4 tL*�|�L?��� �t

@? @*|ih?@|��i |L ?�4ih�U@* �?|i}h@|�L?c >?nr �t it|�4@|i_ M) �L?|i �@h*Lc �t�?}

|�i �@h�@?Ui�hi_�U|�L? |iU�?�^�i !?L�? @t @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it� AL _�tU�tt @?|�|�i|�U

�@h�@|itc @ Mh�iu _itUh�T|�L? Lu ?@��i �L?|i �@h*L t�4�*@|�L? uLh |�i |h@_i 4L_i*t �t

�i*Tu�*�

43Wr looxvwudwh/ vxssrvh | lv qrupdoo| glvwulexwhg Q+!> �5, dqg frqvlghu wkh eldv lq wkh ghwhu0

plqlvwlf iruhfdvw ri \ / zkhuh \ lv wkh h{srqhqwldo ri | ^\ � h{s+|,`1 Wkh ghwhuplqlvwlf iruhfdvw lv

h{s+H+|,, @ h{s+!,/ exw wkh dfwxdo h{shfwdwlrq ri \ lv H+\ , @ H+h{s+|,, @ h{s+! . 4

5�5,1 Wkxv/

wkh qrqolqhdulw| eldv lv h{s+!, � ^h{s+45�5,� 4` dqg ghshqgv rq erwk ! dqg �1

44Qrwh wkdw e� lv lqghshqghqw ri x/ d ihdwxuh wkdw zrxog vlpsoli| vroylqj +6, gluhfwo| e| qxphulfdo

lqwhjudwlrq1 Hyhq vr/ wklv wdvn uhpdlqv d gl�fxow rqh frpsxwdwlrqdoo|/ jlyhq wkh qxpehu ri lqwhjudov

lqyroyhg1 Iru h{dpsoh/ prgho P7 kdv 45: frh�flhqwv dqg 54 +wlphv 45 iruhfdvw shulrgv, glvwxuedqfhv

iru d wrwdo ri 6:< udqgrp yduldeohv wr eh lqwhjudwhg rxw1

��

Page 36: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

�L?|i �@h*L @?@*)t�t tL*�it @ t|LU�@t|�U @?@*L}�i |L |�i �?!?L�? @?@*)|�U@* uLh�

4�*@ uLh >?nr �? E��c t�4�*@|�?} |�i igiU|t Lu �?�ihi?| @?_ ULi�U�i?| �?Uih|@�?|)c

���U� @hi @?@*)|�U@**) _ih��@M*i uLh *�?i@h 4L_i*t� Wu |�i M�@t �ihi _ih��i_ @?@*)|��

U@**)c @tt�4T|�L?t �L�*_ Mi 4@_i @ML�| |�i _�t|h�M�|�L?@* ThLTih|�it Lu |�i u�|�hi

_�t|�hM@?Uit i�?n�c � ' �c � � � c 7j @?_ Lu |�i ULi�U�i?| it|�4@|it ewc @t �? Ee� @?_ ES��

5�4�*@h @tt�4T|�L?t @hi 4@_i ��i? tL*��?} uLh |�i _�t|h�M�|�L?@* ThLTih|�it Lu uLhi�

U@t|t M) t|LU�@t|�U t�4�*@|�L?� V@*�it Lu iew( �?nrc r ' �c � � � c 7j @hi h@?_L4*) _h@�?

@UULh_�?} |L |�Lti _�t|h�M�|�L?@* @tt�4T|�L?tc ��|� i@U� ti| Lu �@*�it }i?ih@|�?} @

T@|� Lu 7 uLhiU@t|t� �? it|�4@|i Lu |�i M�@t U@? |�i? Mi UL?t|h�U|i_ M) t�M|h@U|�?}

B?nr uhL4 |�i @�ih@}i @UhLtt t�4�*@|�L?t Lu |�i r|� uLhiU@t|�

� ?@|�h@* ti| Lu _�t|h�M�|�L?@* @tt�4T|�L?t uLh iew( �?nrc r ' �c � � � c 7j �t |�@|ew |@!it �|t @t)4T|L|�U _�t|h�M�|�L? �? �?�|i t@4T*it @?_ |�@| |�i u�|�hi _�t|�h�

M@?Uit i�?nrc r ' �c � � � c 7j �@�i |�i t@4i _�t|h�M�|�L? @t |�i�h �?�t@4T*i i^���@�

*i?|t i�|c | ' �c � � � c ?j� A��tc uLh |�i &|� Lu g |L|@* t�4�*@|�L?tc |�i _h@��?} Lu ewE_i?L|i_ w&� �t }i?ih@|i_ @tG

w& � �Eewc e[� c Eef�

��ihi [ �t |�i S�S @t)4T|L|�U UL�@h�@?Ui 4@|h� Lu ewc @?_ e[ �t |�i i4T�h�U@* it|�4@|i

Lu [� w�!i��tic |�i &|� _h@��?} Lu �?nr E_i?L|i_ �&c?nr� �t }i?ih@|i_ @tG

�&c?nr � W� Efc el� c r ' �c � � � c 7 c Ee��

��ihi l �t |�i 6�6 UL�@h�@?Ui 4@|h� Lu �| @?_ el �t �|t i4T�h�U@* it|�4@|i� A�@|

�tc ti|t Lu h@?_L4 ?�4Miht @hi _h@�? uLh iw&( �&c?nrc r ' �c � � � c 7jc ���U� t@|�tu)

|�i ThLTih|�it �? Eef� @?_ Ee��� W? Th@U|�Uic 4i@?�3ihL h@?_L4 ?�4Miht w& � ew @hi

}i?ih@|i_ uhL4 |�i _�t|h�M�|�L? �Efc e[�c ��|� ew @__i_ |L |�i4 @u|ih�@h_t |L LM|@�?

w& �? Eef�� A��t ?�@?Ui �t �4TLh|@?| uLh |�i }i?ih@|�L? Lu @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it Mi*L��

�| |�i &|� hiT*�U@|�L?c 7 uLhiU@t|t @hi tL*�i_ ti^�i?|�@**) ��@ E2� M) UL4M�?�?} w&uhL4 Eef�c i�&c?nrc r ' �c � � � c 7j uhL4 Ee��c |�i �?�|�@* UL?_�|�L? +&c? ' +?c @?_ |�i

T@|�t Lu |�i i L}i?L�t �@h�@M*itG

�j &c?nr ' � �}E+&c?nr3�c 5?nrc w&c �&c?nr� c r ' �c � � � c 7 c Ee2�

��ihi �j &c?nr �t |�i E&|�� t�4�*@|i_ uLhiU@t| Lu |�i @U|�@* |h@_i M@*@?Ui �j ?nr�

A�i u�** t|LU�@t|�U t�4�*@|�L? ThL_�Uit @ h@?_L4 t@4T*i Lu g uLhiU@t|tc uhL4 ���U�

|�i 4i@? uLhiU@t| E>?nr� @?_ �@h�@?Ui Lu |�i t�4�*@|i_ uLhiU@t|t Ej2?nr� @hi it|�4@|i_

M)G

h>?nr '

g[&'�

�j &c?nr

gc hj2?nr '

g[&'�

E�j &c?nr � h>?nr�2g

c r ' �c � � � c 7 � Ee��

A�iti �L?|i �@h*L it|�4@|Lht @hi _i?L|i_ M) @ |�*_i t�TihtUh�T| h �? Lh_ih |L _�t|�?�

}��t� |�i4 uhL4 i4T�h�U@* it|�4@|Lht t�U� @t ew� �@h@**i*�?} @?@*)|�U@* uLh4�*@i uLh

�e

Page 37: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

*�?i@h 4L_i*tc ML|� @TThL �4@|i @?_ @t)4T|L|�U �L?|i �@h*L U@*U�*@|�L?t @hi TLt�

t�M*i� A�i 4@|h� }i?ih@*�3@|�L?t Lu h>?nr @?_ hj2?nr uL**L� �44i_�@|i*)( tii �@h^�i3

@?_ ,h�UttL? E�bb��� 6Lh |�i U�hhi?| t�4�*@|�L?tc g ' �fff @?_ |�i uLhiU@t| Tih�L_

�t �bHD"� |L �bH."e E7 ' �2��

�) i T*L�|�?} |�i t)44i|h) Lu |�i _�t|h�M�|�L? Lu Ei�&c?nrjc w&�c @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|itU@? ThL��_i @ 4�U� 4Lhi ThiU�ti it|�4@|i Lu >?nr |�@? |�@| Lgihi_ M) |�i ?@��i

�L?|i �@h*L it|�4@|Lh h>?nr� AL t|@h|c ?L|i |�@| w& ' ew n dw& � ewoc @?_ tL |�i �@*�it

Ei�&c?nrjc w&� @?_ Ei��&c?nrjc ew�dw&�ewo� @hi i^�@**) *�!i*) M) t)44i|h) Lu |�i ?Lh4@*

_�t|h�M�|�L?� �iU@�ti 4�U� Lu |�i UL4T�|@|�L?@* i Ti?ti uLh @ }��i? hiT*�U@|�L? &

@h�tit uhL4 }i?ih@|�?} |�i h@?_L4 ?�4Miht Ei�&c?nrjc w&�c U@*U�*@|�?} t�4�*@|i_ |h@_i

M@*@?Uit uhL4 ML|� Ei�&c?nrjc w&� @?_ Ei��&c?nrjc ew � dw& � ewo� h@|�ih |�@? uhL4 ��t|

Ei�&c?nrjc w&� hi^��hit *�||*i @__�|�L?@* i Ti?ti� �M|@�?�?} |�i @ttLU�@|i_ @?|�|�i|�U�

�@h�@|i it|�4@|i Lu |�i M�@t �?�L*�it |�hii t|iTt�

�� Bi?ih@|i @ h@?_L4 t@4T*i Lu uLhiU@t|t ��|� _h@��?}t uhL4 Eef��Ee��c @t �? Ee2��

2� Bi?ih@|i @ h@?_L4 t@4T*i Lu uLhiU@t|t uLh |�i |h@_i M@*@?Ui �t�?} |�i ?i}@|��i

Lu |�i E4i@?�3ihL� h@?_L4 ?�4Miht Ei�&c?nrjc w& � ew� _h@�? uLh 5|iT �� A�iti

uLhiU@t|t uLh |�i &|� hiT*�U@|�L? @hiG

�j _&c?nr ' � �}E+_&c?nr3�c 5?nrc

ew � dw& � ewoc��&c?nr� c r ' �c � � � c 7 c Eee�

��ihi |�i _@}}ih _ �?_�U@|it t��|U��?} |�i t�}?t Lu |�i h@?_L4 ?�4Miht�

�� �L?t|h�U| |�i TLL*i_ �L?|i �@h*L it|�4@|it Lu |�i uLhiU@t|t M) @�ih@}�?} |�i

@?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it uhL4 5|iTt � @?_ 2G

7>?nr '

g[&'�

E�j &c?nr n �j _&c?nr�

2g'

h>?nr n h>_?nr

2c r ' �c � � � c 7 � EeD�

A��tc uLh g ti|t Lu h@?_L4 ?�4Mihtc 2g t�4�*@|i_ �@*�it Lu |�i |h@_i M@*@?Ui

@hi }i?ih@|i_ @?_ @hi |�i? @�ih@}i_ |L ThL_�Ui @ uLhiU@t| Lu |�i |h@_i M@*@?Ui�

AL �**�t|h@|i �L� }@�?t uhL4 @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it @h�tic UL?t�_ih |�i hi*@|�L?t��T

Mi|�ii? |�i �@h�@?Ui Lu |�i @?|�|�i|�U��@h�@|i it|�4@|Lh 7>?nr @?_ |�i �@h�@?Ui Lu |�i

t|@?_@h_ �L?|i �@h*L it|�4@|Lh h>?nrG

�@hE7>?nr� 'E� n 4?nr� � j2?nr

2g� j2?nr

g' �@hEh>?nr� c EeS�

��ihi 4?nr �t |�i ULhhi*@|�L? ULi�U�i?| Mi|�ii? h>?nr @?_ h>_?nr� A�i �?i^�@*�|) �? EeS�

�t t|h�U|c ThL��_i_ |�@| 4?nr �t *itt |�@? �?�|)� A��t ULhhi*@|�L? �t @*tL |�i ULhhi*@|�L?

Mi|�ii? �j &c?nr @?_ �j _&c?nr�

�D

Page 38: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

W? Th�?U�T*ic i�i? }hi@|ih i�U�i?U) }@�?t U@? Mi LM|@�?i_ M) U�LLt�?} �?i^�@*

E?Lh4@*�3i_� �i�}�|t L? �j &c?nr @?_ �j _&c?nr ��i? U@*U�*@|�?} 7>?nrc h@|�ih |�@? |�i

i^�@* �i�}�|t �4TLti_ �? EeD�� #@��_tL? @?_ �@Uk�??L? E�bb2� t�}}it| U@*U�*@|�?}

|�i �i�}�|t M) |�i uL**L��?} hi}hitt�L?G

�j &c?nr ' Vf n V��j _&c?nr n l&c & ' �c � � � c g c Ee.�

��ihi |�i ULi�U�i?| L? �j _&c?nr �t V�c ���U� t�L�*_ Mi @TThL �4@|i*) �� uhL4 EeD�(

Vf*2 �t @? it|�4@|i Lu >?nr( @?_ l& �t |�i hi4@�?�?} t�4�*@|�L? ihhLh� #@��_tL? @?_

�@Uk�??L? E�bb2� @*tL ThLTLti @ t�4�*@h hi}hitt�L? uLh it|�4@|�?} |�i LT|�4@* �i�}�|

L? @ UL?|hL* �@h�@|i ��i? UL?t|h�U|�?} @ TLL*i_ it|�4@|Lh�

,^�@|�L? Ee.� �@t @ _�t@_�@?|@}i� W| |hi@|t �j &c?nr @?_ �j _&c?nr @t)44i|h�U@**)c

?Lh4@*�3�?} L? |�i �ht| @?_ UL?_�|�L?�?} L? |�i tiUL?_c i�i? |�L�}� ?L|��?} u@�Lht

?Lh4@*�3�?} L? �j &c?nr h@|�ih |�@? �j _&c?nr� +i�iht�?} |�i hL*it Lu �j &c?nr @?_

�j _&c?nr �? Ee.� _Lit ?L| tL*�i |��t @?L4@*)� OL�i�ihc L?i hi}hitt�L? _Lit |hi@|

�j &c?nr @?_ �j _&c?nr t)44i|h�U@**)c ?@4i*)G

�j &c?nr n �j _&c?nr

2' bf n b�E�j &c?nr � �j _

&c?nr� n 1&c & ' �c � � � c g c EeH�

��ihi b� hiThiti?|t |�i _i��@|�L? Mi|�ii? |�i �4T*�i_ �i�}�| L? �j _&c?nr �? |�i

hi}hitt�L?�M@ti_ @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|i @?_ |�i �4TLti_ �i�}�| Lu �

2�? |�i t|@?_@h_ @?�

|�|�i|�U �@h�@|i EeD�( bf �t @? it|�4@|i Lu >?nr( @?_ 1& �t |�i hi4@�?�?} t�4�*@|�L?

ihhLh� W? igiU|c EeH� t|@h|t ��|� |�i t|@?_@h_ @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|i uLh4�*@ @t �|t _i�

Ti?_i?| �@h�@M*i @?_ |�i? U@*U�*@|it |�i i |i?| |L ���U� |�i i^�@* �i�}�|�?} L?

E�j &c?nrc�j _&c?nr� 4�}�| _i��@|i uhL4 E�

2c �2�c ���*i �4TLt�?} |�@| |�i �i�}�|t t�4

|L �?�|)� �) UL?|h@t|c ?i�|�ih Ee.� ?Lh |�i ULhhitTL?_�?} hi�ihti hi}hitt�L? i?t�hi

|�@| |�i t�4 Lu |�i �i�}�|t L? �j &c?nr @?_ �j _&c?nr �t � i_�

AL |it| ��i|�ih Lh ?L| |�i _i|ih4�?�t|�U uLhiU@t| �t M�@ti_c UL4T�|i |�i |�h@|�L

�?nr uLh |�i �)TL|�it�t >?nr ' B?nrG

�?nr '7>?nr � B?nrtj�@hE7>?nr�

'g�*2 � E7>?nr � B?nr�yxxxwj�@h3C�j &c?nr n �j _

&c?nr

2

4Dc Eeb�

��ihi |�i �@h�@?Ui Lu |�i @�ih@}i E�j &c?nrn�j _&c?nr�*2 �t it|�4@|i_ @t �@t |�i

�@h�@?Ui Lu �j &c?nr uhL4 hj2?nr �? Ee��c M�| ��|� E�j &c?nrn�j _&c?nr�*2 @?_ 7>?nr

hiT*@U�?} �j &c?nr @?_ h>?nr �? |�@| uLh4�*@� 5i*iU|�L? Lu @ *@h}i i?L�}� ?�4Mih

Lu hiT*�U@|�L?t g ��** 4@!i @?) ?L?3ihL M�@t t|@|�t|�U@**) t�}?��U@?|c tL �| �t @*tL Lu

�?|ihit| |L UL?t�_ih |�i ?�4ih�U@* �4TLh|@?Ui Lu |�i it|�4@|i_ M�@tc 7>?nr � B?nr�

6Lh _�tU�tt�L?t Lu @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|itc tii O@44iht*i) @?_ O@?_tUL4M E�bSe� @?_

Oi?_h) E�bHe�� 6Lh @TT*�U@|�L?t Lu @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it |L uLhiU@t|t uhL4 iUL?L4i|h�U

�S

Page 39: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

4L_i*tc tii �@*3L*@h� E�b.b�c 6�t�ih @?_ 5@*4L? E�bHS�c �@h�@?L @?_ �hL�? E�bHb�c

@?_ B@**L @?_ #L? E�bb��c ?L|�?} |�@| |�i) @** |hi@| |�i ULi�U�i?| it|�4@|it @t

|�L�}� |�i) �ihi !?L�? ��|� Uih|@�?|)c ��ihi@t |��t tiU|�L? hi*@ it |�@| @tt�4T|�L?�

D�� �Lt|�i�@*�@|�L? �?@*)t�tG ��@tit

A@M*i � hiTLh|t |�i it|�4@|i_ M�@t 7>?nr�B?nr @?_ |�i it|�4@|i_ t|@?_@h_ ihhLh Lu |�i

it|�4@|i_ M�@t dj�@hE7>?nr�o�*2 uLh ML|� L?i�t|iT @?_ r�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|tc @** �t�?}

|�i @TThL �4@|i uLh4�*@� A�i�h h@|�Lt @hi |�i ULhhitTL?_�?} |�h@|�Lt� ,t|�4@|i_

M�@titc t|@?_@h_ ihhLhtc @?_ |�h@|�Lt �t�?} |�i @t)4T|L|�U uLh4�*@ @TTi@h �? �@h^�i3

@?_ ,h�UttL? E�bbf� @?_ @hi ^�@*�|@|��i*) |�i t@4ic ��|� @ ui� 4�?Lh i UiT|�L?t ?L|i_

Mi*L��

5L4i _i|ih4�?�t|�U uLhiU@t|t uhL4 @** 4L_i*t �@�i t|@|�t|�U@**) t�}?��U@?| ?L?*�?�

i@h�|) M�@titc t�44@h�3i_ @t uL**L�t� 6�ht|c |�i it|�4@|i_ M�@tit uhL4 @** 4L_i*t @hi

�t�@**) ��}�*) t|@|�t|�U@**) t�}?��U@?|c @*|�L�}� ?L| @t Lu|i? Lh @t 4�U� uLh �� EL?i�

t|iT @�i@_� Lh �� Er�t|iT @�i@_�� ��ih@**c bfI Lu |�i L?i�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|t �@�i

|�h@|�Lt uLh M�@tit |�@| @hi *@h}ih |�@? � �? @MtL*�|i �@*�i EHfI uLh r�t|iT @�i@_ uLhi�

U@t|t�c @?_ �@*u �@�i |�h@|�Lt }hi@|ih |�@? �f EL?i�|��h_ uLh r�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|t��

5iUL?_c |�i t�3i Lu |�i M�@t U�@?}it ��|� |�i uLhiU@t| Tih�L_c i�i? t��|U��?} t�}? �?

tL4i U@tit� A��h_c uLh Oi*!�i @?_ OLLTih<t 4L_i*c |�i U�L�Ui Lu it|�4@|�L? 4i|�L_

�@h_*) @giU|t i�|�ih |�i 4@}?�|�_i Lh |�i ThL�*i Lu |�i M�@t�

#itT�|i |�i�h t|@|�t|�U@* t�}?��U@?Uic |�i ?L?*�?i@h�|) M�@tit ?ii_ ?L| Mi iUL?L4��

U@**) t�}?��U@?|� 6Lh 4L_i*t �����c |�i _i|ih4�?�t|�U @?_ t|LU�@t|�U uLhiU@t|t _�gih

M) L?*) m2 M�**�L? @| 4Lt|c @*|�L�}� Lu|i? t|@|�t|�U@**) t�}?��U@?|*) tL� �) UL?|h@t|c

4L_i*t �e��S �@�i 4�U� *@h}ih @?_ iUL?L4�U@**) TL|i?|�@**) �4TLh|@?| M�@titc i�}�c

Lu @TThL �4@|i*) m�f M�**�L? @| |�i*�i Tih�L_t @�i@_� A�i tL4i|�4i _�gihi?Ui Mi�

|�ii? iUL?L4�U@**) t�}?��U@?| @?_ t|@|�t|�U@**) t�}?��U@?| M�@tit t|i4t uhL4 |�i UL?�

t�_ih@M*i @UU�h@U) ��|� ���U� @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it it|�4@|i |�i 4i@? Lu |�i uLhiU@t| uLh

|�i |h@_i M@*@?Uic 4@!�?} ?�4ih�U@**) t*�}�| _iT@h|�hit uhL4 |��t 4i@? t|@|�t|�U@**)

t�}?��U@?|�

A�i ?�4ih�U@**) *@h}i M�@tit uLh r�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|t uhL4 4L_i*t �ec �Dc @?_

�S @TTi@h |L @h�ti uLh _�t|�?U|*) _�gihi?| hi@tL?tc i�}�c _)?@4�Ut @?_ |�i �@*�i Lu

+? uLh �D @?_ �Sc @?_ _�t@}}hi}@|�L? uLh �e� �L_i* �S �@t E@?@*)|�U@**)� 3ihL

M�@t �t�?} |�i @t)4T|L|�U uLh4�*@ E?L �?Uih|@�?|) uhL4 it|�4@|�L?� M�| t�Mt|@?|�@*

M�@t ��|� |�i @TThL �4@|i uLh4�*@� A�@| M�@t @h�tit uhL4 |�i ?L?*�?i@h �@) �? ���U�

_)?@4�Ut @giU|t 4�*|��t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|tc �? UL4M�?@|�L? ��|� |�i uLhiU@t|t Mi�?}

UL?_�|�L?@* L? �j ?� 5TiU��U@**)c |�i r�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t| ihhLh uLh 4L_i* �S �t E�b�c

��ihi + ' �j @?_ |�i �?|ihUiT| �t �}?Lhi_ uLh i TLt�|�L?@* t�4T*�U�|)� A�i ihhLht @hi

@tt�4i_ ?Lh4@*c tL |�i *�?i@h UL4M�?@|�L? Lu |�i4 E|�i �ht| |ih4 L? |�i h�}�|��@?_

t�_i Lu E�b�� �t @*tL ?Lh4@*� A�i @t)4T|L|�U uLh4�*@ ti|t q ' eqc �}?Lh�?} |�i �?Uih�

|@�?|) uhL4 it|�4@|�L? E|�i tiUL?_ |ih4 L? |�i h�}�|��@?_ t�_i Lu E�b�� @?_ 4@!�?}

�.

Page 40: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

Wdeoh 61 Qrqolqhdulw| Eldvhv lq Ghwhuplqlvwlf Iruhfdvwv ri wkh X1V1 Wudgh EdodqfhDssur{lpdwh Irupxod +eloolrq XV',

Iruhfdvw ShulrgPrgho 4<;8 4<;9 4<;:

T4 T5 T6 T7 T4 T5 T6 T7 T4 T5 T6 T7

Klvwrulfdo Wudgh Edodqfh~<<18 ~44<1; ~4571; ~47718 ~4741: ~46817 ~4791< ~48714 ~48<18 ~48;15 ~48;1: ~4971;

Rqh0vwhs Dkhdg Iruhfdvwv

Hvwlpdwhg EldvP4 ~315 ~315 ~315 ~316 ~317 ~318 ~319 ~31; ~413 ~413 ~415 ~416P5 ~316 ~315 ~316 ~317 ~319 ~318 ~319 ~31: ~31; ~413 ~414 ~417P6 ~314 ~314 ~313 ~314 ~314 ~313 ~313 ~313 ~314 ~314 ~314 ~314P7 616 ~414 ~414 ~71< ~31: ~813 ~518 414 314 :1< <1: :1:P8 ~315 ~315 ~315 ~315 ~316 ~315 ~315 ~317 ~317 ~317 ~317 ~317P9 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Hvwlpdwhg Vwdqgdug Huuru ri wkh EldvP4 31373 31376 3137: 31386 3138: 31395 31399 313:5 313:9 313;4 313<3 31433P5 31369 3136< 31377 3137< 31386 31386 31387 31393 3139: 313:8 313;; 31434P6 31349 31349 31349 3134: 3134; 3134; 31354 31353 31354 31355 31356 31359P7 3136< 31378 3137: 31383 3138: 31395 31395 31394 3139< 313:; 313;5 313<7P8 3134< 3134< 31353 31354 31356 31355 31355 31363 3136: 31365 31367 3136;P9 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

v0vwhs Dkhdg Iruhfdvwv

Hvwlpdwhg EldvP4 ~315 ~313 ~314 ~313 ~314 313 ~314 ~314 ~317 ~31: ~31; ~413P5 ~316 ~315 ~314 ~316 ~316 ~316 ~314 ~314 ~314 ~317 ~31; ~416P6 ~314 ~315 ~315 ~316 ~317 ~319 ~31: ~31; ~31: ~31; ~31: ~31:P7 616 ~415 ~413 ~718 ~313 ~717 ~516 31; ~31: :15 <1; :1:P8 ~315 ~31: ~319 ~31; ~419 ~518 ~614 ~61: ~718 ~813 ~819 ~91;P9 3 ~314 ~317 ~31; ~416 ~514 ~614 ~716 ~81; ~:19 ~<1; ~4517

Hvwlpdwhg Vwdqgdug Huuru ri wkh EldvP4 31373 31397 313;7 313<< 31437 31444 3144; 31456 3145< 3146: 3147; 31483P5 31369 3138: 313:3 313;5 313<3 313<9 31435 31447 31453 3145; 31469 31479P6 31349 31374 3138; 313:9 313;< 313<9 31439 3144; 31468 3147< 31497 314:;P7 3136< 31399 313;6 31433 31448 31469 31478 31488 314:4 31535 31545 31573P8 3134< 31453 31568 31674 31779 31879 319:3 31;45 31<85 413:; 4154; 4167<P9 3 31344 3135: 31384 313;5 31457 314:: 31576 31656 3174; 31864 31998

Qrwhv= Vhh Wdeoh 71

�H

Page 41: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

|�i ULhhitTL?_�?} uLhiU@t| �?M�@ti_� W? |�i @TThL �4@|i uLh4�*@c eq �t @tt�4i_ ?Lh�

4@**) _�t|h�M�|i_c �?M�@ti_ uLh q� N?_ih |�@| @tt�4T|�L?c eqr�t }i?ih@**) M�@ti_ uLh

qr Er : ��� W? A@M*i �c |�i ?L?3ihL ?L?*�?i@h�|) M�@tit uLh �S hi�iU| |�@| ?L?*�?i@h�|)

�? eqc 4�*|�T*�i_ M) @ }��i? +?� �L_i* �D �?�L*�it |�i t@4i �tt�it @| @ 4�*|��@h�@|i

*i�i*c @?_ @*tL �?U*�_it |�i ?L?*�?i@h |h@?tuLh4@|�L?t uhL4 *L}t |L *i�i*t @?_ uhL4

*i�i*t |L ThL_�U|t Lu *i�i*t� �*|�L�}� _)?@4�Ut 4@) UL?|h�M�|i |L |�i ?L?*�?i@h�|)

M�@tit uLh �ec L|�ih i T*@?@|�L?t UL�*_ Mi 4Lhi �4TLh|@?|� �L_i* �e �t 4�U� 4Lhi

_�t@}}hi}@|i_ EM) UL�?|h)� |�@? |�i L|�ih 4L_i*t @?_c �u |�i hi*@|��i ��U|�@|�L?t Lu

|�i _�t@}}hi}@|i_ �@h�@M*it @hi *@h}ih |�@? Lu |�i @}}hi}@|ic ?L?*�?i@h�|) M�@tit UL�*_

�i** Mi 4Lhi ThL?L�?Ui_ uLh |�i _�t@}}hi}@|i_ 4L_i* E�e��

��ih@**c |�i ti?t�|���|) Lu |�i ?L?*�?i@h�|) M�@t |L |�i uLhiU@t| Tih�L_c it|�4@|�L?

4i|�L_c *i�i* Lu @}}hi}@|�L?c @?_ _)?@4�U tTiU��U@|�L? t�}}it|t |�@| ?L t�4T*i ULh�

hiU|�L? i �t|t uLh |�i M�@tc L|�ih |�@? t�4�*@|�L?� `�i? @ t�Mt|@?|��i ?L?*�?i@h�|)

M�@t �t Thiti?|c _i|ih4�?�t|�U uLhiU@t|t ��** Mi @| @? �?�ihi?| _�t@_�@?|@}i �? |ih4t Lu

uLhiU@t|�?} TihuLh4@?Ui hi*@|��i |L E�?M�@ti_� t|LU�@t|�U uLhiU@t|t� �** Lu |�i 4L_�

i*t i @4�?i_ �@�i t|@|�t|�U@**) t�}?��U@?| ?L?*�?i@h�|) M�@titc Lu ���U� |�hii �@�i

?�4ih�U@**) t�Mt|@?|��i M�@tit� �Lhi }i?ih@**)c t�?Ui ?L?*�?i@h�|) �t @ ui@|�hi UL4�

4L? |L 4Lt| 4@UhL�iUL?L4i|h�U 4L_i*tc _i|ih4�?�t|�U uLhiU@t|t uhL4 |�i4 t�L�*_ Mi

�?|ihThi|i_ ��|� U@�|�L?c @| *i@t| �?|�* |�i 4@}?�|�_i Lu |�i M�@t �t @ttitti_�

6Lh |�i t|h�U|�h@* |h@_i 4L_i*t ����ec i |hi4i �@*�it uLh uLhiU@t|t 4@) @h�ti Mi�

U@�ti |�i t�4�*@|i_ t|h�U|�h@* ULi�U�i?|t @hi @tt�4i_ ?Lh4@**) _�t|h�M�|i_ ��ihi@t

|�i uLhiU@t|t @hi LM|@�?i_ uhL4 |�i hi_�Ui_ uLh4c ���U� �?�L*�it �?�ih|�?} @ u�?U|�L?

Lu |�Lti ?Lh4@**) _�t|h�M�|i_ ULi�U�i?| t�4�*@|�L?t( Uu� �U�@h|�) E�b.2�� `��*i

�4TLh|@?| �? Th�?U�T*ic t�U� i |hi4i �@*�it _L ?L| @TTi@h |L Mi @ ThLM*i4 uLh |�i

4L_i*t �?�L*�i_� �@h^�i3 @?_ ,h�UttL? E�bb�c A@M*it �e��S @?_ �e��.� U@*U�*@|i

t!i�?ittc i Uitt !�h|Lt�tc @?_ |�i a@h^�i��ih@ t|@|�t|�U uLh @** |�i 4L_i*<t uLhiU@t|

t�4�*@|�L?t @?_ �?_ *�||*i i��_i?Ui Lu ?L??Lh4@*�|)c UL?|h@_�U|�?} @ M@t�U �4T*�U@|�L?

Lu |�i i |hi4i �@*�it �)TL|�it�t� O�t|L}h@4t @?_ it|�4@|i_ _i?t�|�it uLh @** |�i 4L_�

i*t< uLhiU@t|t E@�@�*@M*i uhL4 |�i @�|�Lht� ThL��_i u�h|�ih i��_i?Ui |�@| ��*_ �@*�it

@hi ?L| @ T@h|�U�*@h ThLM*i4 uLh |�iti uLhiU@t|t�

D�e �Lt|�i�@*�@|�L? �?@*)t�tG ,�U�i?U) B@�?t

A��t t�MtiU|�L? U@*U�*@|it |�i i�U�i?U) }@�? uhL4 |�i �ti Lu @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it �?

it|�4@|�?} |�i ?L?*�?i@h�|) M�@t Lu |�i _i|ih4�?�t|�U uLhiU@t|t� A�i i�U�i?U) }@�? �t

UL44L?*) 4i@t�hi_ @t j�@hEh>?nr�*j�@hE7>?nr�c |�i h@|�L Lu |�i it|�4@|i_ �@h�@?Uit Lu

|�i ?@��i @?_ @?|�|�i|�U��@h�@|i it|�4@|it Lu |�i M�@t� �t |�@| h@|�Lc |�i i�U�i?U)

}@�? 4i@t�hit |�i hi_�U|�L? �? �@h�@?Ui LM|@�?i_ M) @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it� �L?�ihti*)c

|�i i�U�i?U) }@�? hiThiti?|t |�i ��uL*_ ?�4Mih Lu hiT*�U@|�L?t |�@| �L�*_ Mi hi^��hi_

|L LM|@�? @ ?@��i 4i@? uLhiU@t| ��|� |�i t@4i �@h�@?Ui @t |�@| Lu |�i 4i@? uLhiU@t|

�t�?} @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it�

�b

Page 42: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

A@M*i e *�t|t |�i it|�4@|i_ i�U�i?U) }@�?t uLh L?i�t|iT @?_ r�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|t

Lu @** |�i 4L_i*tc ML|� uLh |�i @t)4T|L|�U uLh4�*@ @?_ uLh |�i @TThL �4@|i uLh4�*@i�

6Lh 4L_i*t ����ec |�i i�U�i?U) }@�?t h@?}i uhL4 @hL�?_ 2f |L L�ih 2fff� W?

|�Lti �?t|@?Uit ��|� �ih) ��}� i�U�i?U) }@�?tc @ t�?}*i hiT*�U@|�L? ��|� @?|�|�i|�U

�@h�@|it �L�*_ �@�i ThL_�Ui_ @ 4i@? uLhiU@t| ��|� @ t4@**ih �@h�@?Ui |�@? |�@| Lu

|�i ?@��i 4i@? uLhiU@t| LM|@�?i_ uhL4 |�i �fff hiT*�U@|�L?t �? |�i U�hhi?| t�4�*@|�L?

t|�_)� �L?�ihti*)c tL4i Lu |�i 4i@? uLhiU@t|t LM|@�?i_ ��|� @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it �@�i

@ t4@**ih �@h�@?Ui |�@? |�@| Lu @ ?@��i 4i@? uLhiU@t| �t�?} |�L 4�**�L? hiT*�U@|�L?t�

A�i i�U�i?U) }@�?t uLh |�i V�+ E�D� |)T�U@**) @hi Mi|�ii? �ff @?_ �fffc M�|

_hLT |L @t *L� @t e uLh r�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|t ��|� |�i @TThL �4@|i uLh4�*@� 6Lh 4L_i*

�Sc |�i it|�4@|i_ }@�?t uLh r�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|t Er : �� ��|� |�i @TThL �4@|i

uLh4�*@ h@?}i uhL4 �. |L @*4Lt| 2fff� 6Lh |��t 4L_i*c i�U�i?U) }@�?t @hi �?�?�|i

uLh @** r�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|t ��|� |�i @t)4T|L|�U uLh4�*@ @?_ uLh @** L?i�t|iT @�i@_

uLhiU@t|t ��|� i�|�ih uLh4�*@ MiU@�ti |�iti uLhiU@t|t @hi *�?i@h �? |�i |ih4t t�4�*@|i_�

A��t �@t |�i uL**L��?} i T*@?@|�L?�

W? *�?i@h 4L_i*tc |�i L?i�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t| �t *�?i@h �? |�i T@h@4i|iht E@?_ tL

�? w& � ew� @?_ �t ?L| @ u�?U|�L? Lu |�i _�t|�hM@?Uitc tL @ t�?}*i hiT*�U@|�L? ThL��_it @

UL4T*i|i*) @UU�h@|i it|�4@|i Lu |�i i TiU|i_ L�|UL4ic ��i�c Lu |�i i TiU|@|�L? >?nr

�? E��� 5TiU��U@**)c t�TTLti |�@| |�i 4L_i* �t +| ' 5�|w n �| ��|� @ t)44i|h�U@**)

_�t|h�M�|i_ it|�4@|Lh Lu w _i?L|i_ ew @?_ |�@| |�i L?i�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t| Lu +?n��t 5�?n�

ew� A�i? ew n dw& � ewo @?_ ew � dw& � ewo @hi i^�@**) *�!i*) |L LUU�h� A�i |�L

hit�*|�?} uLhiU@t|t @hi 5�?n�Eew n dw& � ewo� @?_ 5�?n�E

ew � dw& � ewo�c ��Lti @�ih@}i �t

5�?n�ew� A��t �t |�i @�ih@}i uLh @?) @?_ @** w& � ew _h@�?c tL |�i i TiU|@|�L? �? E��

�t 5�?n�ew� Oihic |�i }@�?t uhL4 @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it @hi �?�?�|ic t�?Ui ?L hiT*�U@|�L?t

�ihi @U|�@**) ?iUitt@h) |L �?_ |�i i @U| uLhiU@t|� 5ii Oi?_h) @?_ Ah��i_� E�b.2c

T� �2fc uLL|?L|i e�c ��L UL?t�_ih @ t�4�*@h t�|�@|�L? Lu |�i M�@t Lu �w5 ��|� � i_

hi}hittLht @?_ ��L �ti @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it uLh @?@*)3�?} |�i t|@?_@h_ _i��@|�L? @?_

M�@t Lu L?i�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|t�

`�|� r�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|t uhL4 TLtt�M*) ?L?*�?i@h _)?@4�U 4L_i*tc @?|�|�i|�U

�@h�@|it hi_�Ui Lh i*�4�?@|i |�i �L?|i �@h*L �@h�@|�L? uhL4 |�i �i�}�|i_ t�4 Lu

u�|�hi _�t|�hM@?Uitc @?_ hi_�Ui |�i �@h�@|�L? uhL4 ULi�U�i?| �?Uih|@�?|) E���U� �t

?L?*�?i@h �? |�i it|�4@|i_ ULi�U�i?|t�� ,^�@|�L? E�� T@h|�|�L?t |�iti |�L UL4TL?i?|t

U*i@h*)� �iU@�ti E�� @h�tit uhL4 @ *�?i@h 4L_i*c @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it �L�*_ i*�4�?@|i

|�i �@h�@|�L? uhL4 |�i �i�}�|i_ t�4 Lu u�|�hi t�LU!t�

A�i �?Uhi4i?|@* �4ThL�i4i?|t uhL4 |�i hi}hitt�L?�M@ti_ @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it �?

EeH� @hi 4@h}�?@*� ��| Lu 2D� hi}hitt�L?tc |�i @MtL*�|i �@*�i Lu |�i it|�4@|i_ b�i Uii_t f�f� �? L?*) D �?t|@?Uit @?_ ?i�ih i Uii_t f�f2� �?*) �e �?t|@?Uit �@�i

�?Uhi4i?|@* i�U�i?U) }@�?t Lu 4Lhi |�@? �Ic @?_ ?L?i �@�i �?Uhi4i?|@* }@�?t i �

Uii_�?} �I� ,�}�c uLh @ �fff�uL*_ i�U�i?U) }@�? hiTLh|i_ �? A@M*i ec hi}hitt�L?�M@ti_

@?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it �L�*_ @| Mit| �?Uhi@ti |�@| |L �f�f�uL*_� A�iti 4�?Lh �?Uhi4i?|@*

}@�?t @hi UL?t�t|i?| ��|� #@��_tL? @?_ �@Uk�??L? E�bb2c TT� 2b.�2bH��

ef

Page 43: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

Wdeoh 71H�flhqf| Jdlqv iurp Dqwlwkhwlf Yduldwhv

Lq Hvwlpdwlqj wkh Qrqolqhdulw| Eldv ri Ghwhuplqlvwlf Iruhfdvwv

Prgho Iruhfdvw ShulrgKrul}rq= Irupxod 4<;8 4<;9 4<;:

T4 T5 T6 T7 T4 T5 T6 T7 T4 T5 T6 T7

P440vwhs= Dv|pswrwlf 4:;6 4;54 537< 4;<3 4<38 4;;9 4::4 4;:8 4;4< 4;5: 4;5; 4:49

Dssur{lpdwh 43< <5 ;6 :5 97 86 86 83 85 87 83 79v0vwhs= Dv|pswrwlf 4:;6 4859 46:< 459; 479< 45;9 4567 46<5 4673 4568 45<3 464<

Dssur{lpdwh 43< 8< 75 6; 69 64 64 67 6< 76 77 84P540vwhs= Dv|pswrwlf 4;66 4<6; 5335 4;;3 495: 49:5 4894 4;68 4;34 4:9< 4:<4 4939

Dssur{lpdwh 45: 445 ;9 ;4 :7 97 97 8; 88 85 7: 79v0vwhs= Dv|pswrwlf 4;66 486; 4558 43:9 43:; <47 ::3 :<3 :8< ;4; ;75 ::5

Dssur{lpdwh 45: :3 84 7< 78 69 69 66 6< 75 7; 86P640vwhs= Dv|pswrwlf 4879 4897 4936 487: 474: 46<; 45<; 477: 483; 47:: 487< 4686

Dssur{lpdwh :57 9;< 9<: 993 8;< 898 7<3 878 884 85: 877 798v0vwhs= Dv|pswrwlf 4879 456; <63 ;48 ;3: :55 973 :35 9:: 9;9 9:9 98;

Dssur{lpdwh :57 49< 436 :8 8; 7: 75 6: 6: 65 64 5<P740vwhs= Dv|pswrwlf 984 848 888 8:7 834 7;8 864 7:6 8:: 8;3 838 888

Dssur{lpdwh 54: 4;6 4:< 4<9 499 458 466 45< 478 458 457 43;v0vwhs= Dv|pswrwlf 984 7;7 777 6<4 735 693 683 694 736 6;5 689 664

Dssur{lpdwh 54: <4 99 8; 7< 6: 67 63 65 5: 59 56P840vwhs= Dv|pswrwlf ;;3 :48 ;:3 ;35 ;;< <6< ::7 <39 ;;< ;93 ;<6 ;63

Dssur{lpdwh 964 8<5 88: 846 87< 84< 86< 746 665 747 6<8 67:v0vwhs= Dv|pswrwlf ;;3 674 584 53; 46; 448 <8 :; 9: 8; 84 7;

Dssur{lpdwh 964 6< 48 43 ; ; ; : 9 8 8 7P940vwhs= Dv|pswrwlf 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Dssur{lpdwh 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4v0vwhs= Dv|pswrwlf 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Dssur{lpdwh 4 4:83 793 543 458 ;5 89 74 64 58 53 4:

Qrwhv=Prgho P4= Khonlh dqg Krrshu +4<;;,1Prgho P5= Prgho P4 e| ILPO1Prgho P6= Prgho P4 e| ILPO/ zlwk sduwldo dgmxvwphqw/ zlwkrxw qrq0sulfh udwlrqlqj1Prgho P7= Elodwhudo wudgh prgho e| ILPO1Prgho P8= YDU+7, ri lpsruw dqg h{sruw yroxphv dqg sulfh lqglfhv1Prgho P9= DU+4, ri wkh qrplqdo wudgh edodqfh1

e�

Page 44: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

�i@? uLhiU@t|t �t�?} @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it Lu|i? hit�*| �? 4@h!i_*) �4ThL�i_ it�

|�4@|it Lu |�i ?L?*�?i@h�|) M�@t uhL4 _i|ih4�?�t|�U uLhiU@t|tc hi^��h�?} ��h|�@**) ?L

@__�|�L?@* ThL}h@44�?} @?_ @| 4Lt| |��Ui |�i UL4T�|@|�L?@* |�4i� W?_ii_c *�||*i ��t�

|��U@|�L? hi4@�?t uLh �t�?} ?@��i �L?|i �@h*L h@|�ih |�@? @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|itc �? tL

u@h @t it|�4@|�?} |�i ?L?*�?i@h�|) M�@t �t UL?Uih?i_� �?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it @t @ |iU�?�^�i

�t @TT*�U@M*i |L U@*U�*@|�?} |�i _i|ih4�?�t|�U M�@t @h�t�?} i�|�ih uhL4 ?L?3ihL u�|�hi

_�t|�hM@?Uit L?*) ER@t)4T|L|�U�� Lh uhL4 ?L?3ihL u�|�hi _�t|�hM@?Uit @?_ ULi�U�i?|

�?Uih|@�?|) ER@TThL �4@|i��� A�i t�4�*@|�L? @ML�i @TTi@ht |L Mi |�i �ht| @?@*)3�?}

|�i M�@t uhL4 ML|� tL�hUit M) 4i@?t Lu @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it�

A�i ThiU�ti }@�? uhL4 @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it _iTi?_t �TL? |�i uLhiU@t| Tih�L_c |�i

?L?*�?i@h�|) Lu |�i ThLUittc @?_ ��i|�ih |�i @t)4T|L|�U Lh @TThL �4@|i uLh4�*@ �t

�ti_� OL�i�ihc |�i *@h}i }@�?t �? A@M*i e @hi �? *�?i ��|� L|�ih @�|�Lht< hit�*|t(

Uu� O@44iht*i) @?_ O@?_tUL4M E�bSec T� SD�c �@*3L*@h� E�b.b� @?_ 6�t�ih @?_ 5@*4L?

E�bHS�� W?|ihit|�?}*)c i�U�i?U) }@�?t uLh |�i ?L?*�?i@h�|) M�@t Lu _i|ih4�?�t|�U uLhi�

U@t|t U@? Mi t�Mt|@?|�@* uLh T�hi*) _)?@4�U ThLUittitG |�@| UL?|h@t|t ��|� |�i 3ihL

�?Uhi4i?|@* }@�?t uhL4 @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it ��i? 4i@t�h�?} M�@tit �? |�i it|�4@|�L? Lu

T@h@4i|iht uhL4 *�?i@h @�|Lhi}hitt��i ThLUittit� OL�i�ihc @?|�|�i|�U �@h�@|it ThLM�

@M*) �L�*_ LM|@�? L?*) t4@** }@�?t uLh it|�4@|it Lu uLhiU@t| �@h�@?Uit MiU@�ti |�Lti

�@h�@?Uit @hi ?i@h*) �?�@h�@?| |L |�i t�}? Lu |�i h@?_L4 ?�4Miht _h@�? uLh Eef�

@?_ Ee��� 6Lh L?i�t|iT @�i@_ uLhiU@t|t uhL4 @ *�?i@h 4L_i*c |�i uLhiU@t| �@h�@?Ui �t

�?�@h�@?| |L |�i t�}?c �? ���U� U@ti |�i ULhhi*@|�L? 4?nr �t �?�|) @?_ ?L }@�?t @UUh�i�

S �L?U*�t�L?t

A��t T@Tih @_�@?Uit @ |h�T@h|�|i uh@4i�Lh! Lu _it�}?c i�@*�@|�L?c @?_ TLt|�i�@*�@|�L?

@?@*)t�t uLh }i?ih@|�?} @?_ �?|ihThi|�?} iUL?L4�U uLhiU@t|t� A�iti UL?UiT|t @hi ?L|

?i� �? |�i4ti*�itc @?_ |�i) �@�i Mii? Thi��L�t*) _�tU�tti_ �? @ ?@hhL�ih UL?|i | uLh

�L?|i �@h*L @?@*)t�t� A�i U�hhi?| T@Tih }i?ih@*�3it |�iti UL?UiT|t @?_ @TT*�it |�i4

|L uLhiU@t|�?}c hi��?|ihThi|�?} |�i �@h�L�t @tTiU|t Lu uLhiU@t|�?} @t T@h|t Lu @ ��L*i

�?t|i@_ Lu @t @ UL**iU|�L? Lu *LLti*) hi*@|i_ |@t!t�

A��t uh@4i�Lh! �t �**�t|h@|i_ M) |�i 5U�4�_|��@�**�i uLh4�*@ uLh |�i �56, Lu @

V�+c ��|� tTiU��U @TT*�U@|�L?t |L |�i �+E�� 4L_i* @t t|�_�i_ M) �hU�|| @?_ `�?L!�h

E�bSb�c OL^�ic �@}?�tc @?_ �it@h@? E�bHH�c @?_ L�hti*�it� A��t uh@4i�Lh! �t @*tL

@TT*�i_ |L uLhiU@t|t uhL4 i4T�h�U@* 4L_i*t Lu N�5� i |ih?@* |h@_i� �L|� U*@ttit Lu

4L_i*t @hi U�@h@U|ih�3i_ M) ThLTih|�it Lu iUL?L4�U �?|ihit|G |�i TLtt�M*i ?L?4L?L�

|L?�U�|) @?_ ?L?i �t|i?Ui Lu |�i �56,c @?_ |�i ?L?*�?i@h�|) M�@t Lu _i|ih4�?�t|�U

uLhiU@t|t� ,@U� ThLTih|) �@t Mii? t|�_�i_ MiuLhic M�| �? �tL*@|�L? uhL4 L|�ih @tTiU|t

Lu |�i uLhiU@t|�?} ThLUitt� A�i uh@4i�Lh! @_�@?Ui_ �ihi�? hi�i@*t �L� @ U*i@hih �?�

_iht|@?_�?} Lu i@U� ThLTih|) hit�*|t uhL4 �?|i}h@|�?} @** |�i @U|���|�it }i?ih@|�?} |�i

hitTiU|��i uLhiU@t|t�

e2

Page 45: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

+iuihi?Uit

�?_ihtL?c A� `� E�b.�� A�i 5|@|�t|�U@* �?@*)t�t Lu A�4i 5ih�itc aL�? `�*i)c �i�vLh!�

�?t*i)c �� 6�c @?_ �� �i�ML*_ E�bHf� R6�?�|i 5@4T*i �hLTih|�it Lu ,t|�4@|Lht uLh��|Lhi}hitt��i �L��?} ��ih@}i �L_i*t�c aL�h?@* Lu ,UL?L4i|h�Utc ��c 2c �Db��H��

�@�**�ic +� A� E�b.b@� RA�i �t)4T|L|�U �i@? 5^�@hi_ ,hhLh Lu ��*|�t|iT �hi_�U|�L?uhL4 |�i +i}hitt�L? �L_i* ��|� ��|Lhi}hitt��i ,hhLht�c aL�h?@* Lu |�i �4ih�U@?5|@|�t|�U@* �ttLU�@|�L?c .ec �SDc �.D��He�

�@�**�ic +� A� E�b.bM� R�t)4T|L|�U �hi_�U|�L? �i@? 5^�@hi_ ,hhLh uLh ViU|Lh ��|L�hi}hitt��i �L_i*t�c ��L4i|h�!@c SSc �c S.D�S.H�

�@�**�ic +� A� E�bH�� R�hi_�U|�L? uhL4 |�i #)?@4�U 5�4�*|@?iL�t ,^�@|�L? �L_i*��|� ViU|Lh ��|Lhi}hitt��i ,hhLht�c ,UL?L4i|h�U@c ebc Dc ��������.�

�i@U�c �� ��c @?_ a� B� �@Uk�??L? E�b.H� R� �@ �4�4 w�!i*��LL_ �hLUi_�hi uLh+i}hitt�L? ��|� ��|LULhhi*@|i_ ,hhLht�c ,UL?L4i|h�U@c eSc �c D��DH�

��@?U��c �� E�bbf� R+�U@4T�L?@4i?|L i tL||Lt|�4@ _i* �#i*|@ �i|�L_<G @*U�?� UL?�|hLiti4T� iUL?L4i|h�U��c "�@_ih?� _� 5|@|�t|�U@ i ,UL?L4i|h�@c �2c H.��fe�

��@?U��c ��c B� �@*3L*@h�c @?_ a��w� �h�**i| E�bH.� R�i@t�h�?} 6LhiU@t| N?Uih|@�?|)G� +i��i� ��|� ,�@*�@|�L? �@ti_ L? @ �@UhL �L_i* Lu |�i 6hi?U� ,UL?L4)�cW?|ih?@|�L?@* aL�h?@* Lu 6LhiU@t|�?}c �c 2c 2���22.�

�Lh*@?_ E�bb�� "�@||hL �hL uLh `�?_L�t Viht�L? D�fG Ntih<t B��_ic �Lh*@?_ W?|ih�?@|�L?@*c 5UL||t V@**i)c �@*�uLh?�@�

�L c B� ,� ��c @?_ B� �� ai?!�?t E�b.f� A�4i 5ih�it �?@*)t�tG 6LhiU@t|�?} @?_�L?|hL*c OL*_i?�#@)c 5@? 6h@?U�tUL�

�L c B� ,� ��c @?_ �� ,� ��**ih E�bDH� R� �L|i L? |�i Bi?ih@|�L? Lu +@?_L4 �Lh4@*#i��@|it�c �??@*t Lu �@|�i4@|�U@* 5|@|�t|�Utc 2bc 2c S�f�S���

�hL�?c �� `�c @?_ +� 5� �@h�@?L E�bHb� R�hi_�U|Lht �? #)?@4�U �L?*�?i@h �L_i*tGw@h}i�t@4T*i �i�@��Lh�c ,UL?L4i|h�U A�iLh)c Dc �c e�f�eD2�

�@*3L*@h�c B� E�b.b� R�?|�|�i|�U V@h�@|it |L ,t|�4@|i |�i 5�4�*@|�L? ��@t �? �L?�*�?i@h �L_i*t�c ,UL?L4�Ut wi||ihtc ec ec �2���2H�

�@*3L*@h�c B� E�bH�� R� �L|i L? |�i V@h�@?Ui Lu , �TLt| 6LhiU@t|t �? ,UL?L4i|h�U�L_i*t�c ,UL?L4i|h�U@c ebc Sc �Db���DbD�

�@*3L*@h�c B� E�bH.� R6LhiU@t| V@h�@?Ui �? #)?@4�U 5�4�*@|�L? Lu 5�4�*|@?iL�t ,^�@�|�L? �L_i*t�c ,UL?L4i|h�U@c DDc Sc �e.���e.S�

�@*3L*@h�c B�c @?_ 6� �� 5|ihMi?3 E�bHS� R�L?|hL* V@h�@|it |L ,t|�4@|i |�i +i_�Ui_6Lh4 V@h�@?Uit �? ,UL?L4i|h�U �L_i*t�c ,UL?L4i|h�U@c Dec Sc �eH���ebf�

e�

Page 46: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

�@4TLtc a� E�bb2� R�L?�_i?Ui W?|ih�@*t uLh w�?i@h �L4M�?@|�L?t Lu 6LhiU@t|t uhL4#)?@4�U ,UL?L4i|h�U �L_i*t�c aL�h?@* Lu �L*�U) �L_i*�?}c �ec ec D�D�DSf�

�@hh�ihc ��c ,� �|!�?tc @?_ �� A@)*Lh E�bSb� R+iTLh| L? |�i wL?_L? �|*@t +@?_L4��4Mih Bi?ih@|Lh�c 4�4iLc N?��iht�|) Lu wL?_L? �L4T�|�?} �i?|hic wL?_L?c#iUi4Mih�

��L?}c v� v�c @?_ #� 6� Oi?_h) E�bHS� R,UL?L4i|h�U ,�@*�@|�L? Lu w�?i@h �@UhL�iUL?L4�U �L_i*t�c +i��i� Lu ,UL?L4�U 5|�_�itc D�c ec S.��Sbf�

��L�c B� �� E�bSf� RAit|t Lu ,^�@*�|) �i|�ii? 5i|t Lu �Li�U�i?|t �? A�L w�?i@h+i}hitt�L?t�c ,UL?L4i|h�U@c 2Hc �c Db��SfD�

�*i4i?|tc �� ��c @?_ #� 6� Oi?_h) E�bb�� R�? |�i w�4�|@|�L?t Lu �L4T@h�?} �i@?5^�@hi 6LhiU@t| ,hhLht�c aL�h?@* Lu 6LhiU@t|�?}c �2c Hc S�.�S�. E��|� _�tU�tt�L?��

�*i4i?|tc �� ��c @?_ #� 6� Oi?_h) E�bbD� R6LhiU@t|�?} �? �L�?|i}h@|i_ 5)t|i4t�caL�h?@* Lu �TT*�i_ ,UL?L4i|h�Utc �fc 2c �2.��eS�

�*i4i?|tc �� ��c @?_ #� 6� Oi?_h) E�bbS� RW?|ihUiT| �LhhiU|�L?t @?_ 5|h�U|�h@*��@?}i�c aL�h?@* Lu �TT*�i_ ,UL?L4i|h�Utc ��c Dc e.D�ebe�

�*i4i?|tc �� ��c @?_ #� 6� Oi?_h) E�bbH@� 6LhiU@t|�?} ,UL?L4�U A�4i 5ih�itG A�i�@ht�@** wiU|�hit L? ,UL?L4�U 6LhiU@t|�?}c �@4Mh�_}i N?��iht�|) �hittc �@4�Mh�_}ic ,?}*@?_ EuLh|�UL4�?}��

�*i4i?|tc �� ��c @?_ #� 6� Oi?_h) E�bbHM� A�i ~i�|�i? wiU|�hit L? ,UL?L4�U6LhiU@t|�?}c �WA �hittc �@4Mh�_}ic �@tt@U��ti||t EuLh|�UL4�?}��

#@��_tL?c +�c @?_ a� B� �@Uk�??L? E�bH�� R5i�ih@* Ait|t uLh �L_i* 5TiU��U@|�L? �?|�i �hiti?Ui Lu �*|ih?@|��i O)TL|�itit�c ,UL?L4i|h�U@c ebc �c .H��.b��

#@��_tL?c +�c @?_ a� B� �@Uk�??L? E�bb2� R+i}hitt�L?�M@ti_ �i|�L_t uLh Nt�?}�L?|hL* V@h�@|it �? �L?|i �@h*L , Tih�4i?|t�c aL�h?@* Lu ,UL?L4i|h�Utc Dec ���c2f��222�

#LLh?�!c a� ��c @?_ #� 6� Oi?_h) E�bbS� �UB��i �hLuitt�L?@* b�f uLh `�?_L�tc W?�|ih?@|�L?@* A�L4tL? ��t�?itt �hittc wL?_L?�

,uhL?c �� E�bH2� A�i a@U!!?�uic |�i �LL|t|h@T @?_ �|�ih +it@4T*�?} �*@?tc 5LU�i|)uLh W?_�t|h�@* @?_ �TT*�i_ �@|�i4@|�Utc ���*@_i*T��@c �i??t)*�@?�@�

,?}*ic +� 6�c #� 6� Oi?_h)c @?_ a��6� +�U�@h_ E�bH�� R, L}i?i�|)�c ,UL?L4i|h�U@cD�c 2c 2..��fe�

,h�UttL?c �� +� E�bHS� R�Lt|�t�4�*@|�L? �?@*)t�t Lu �L?|i �@h*L , Tih�4i?|tG W?|ih�Thi|�?} �it@h@?<t E�b.e� 5|�_) Lu �L?�?it|i_ O)TL|�it�t Ait| 5|@|�t|�Ut�c +i��i�Lu ,UL?L4�U 5|�_�itc D�c ec Sb��.f.�

,h�UttL?c �� +� E�bb2� R�@h@4i|ih �L?t|@?U)c �i@? 5^�@hi 6LhiU@t| ,hhLhtc @?_�i@t�h�?} 6LhiU@t| �ihuLh4@?UiG �? , TLt�|�L?c , |i?t�L?tc @?_ W**�t|h@|�L?�caL�h?@* Lu �L*�U) �L_i*�?}c �ec ec eSD�ebD�

ee

Page 47: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

,h�UttL?c �� +�c @?_ a� �@h^�i3 E�bHb� R, @U| @?_ �TThL �4@|i ��*|��Tih�L_ �i@?�t^�@hi 6LhiU@t| ,hhLht uLh #)?@4�U ,UL?L4i|h�U �L_i*t�c W?|ih?@|�L?@* 6�?@?Ui#�tU�tt�L? �@Tih �L� �eHc �L@h_ Lu BL�ih?Lht Lu |�i 6i_ih@* +itih�i 5)t|i4c@t��?}|L?c #���c �Th�*�

,h�UttL?c �� +�c @?_ a� �@h^�i3 E�bb�� R,?UL4T@tt�?} |�i 6LhiU@t|t Lu N�5� Ah@_i�@*@?Ui �L_i*t�c +i��i� Lu ,UL?L4�Ut @?_ 5|@|�t|�Utc .Dc �c �b����

6@�hc +� �� E�bHf� R,t|�4@|�?} |�i , TiU|i_ �hi_�U|��i �UU�h@U) Lu ,UL?L4i|h�U�L_i*t�c W?|ih?@|�L?@* ,UL?L4�U +i��i�c 2�c 2c �DD��.H�

6@�hc +� �� E�bHe� 5TiU��U@|�L?c ,t|�4@|�L?c @?_ �?@*)t�t Lu �@UhLiUL?L4i|h�U �L_�i*tc O@h�@h_ N?��iht�|) �hittc �@4Mh�_}ic �@tt@U��ti||t�

6@�hc +� �� E�bHH� R5L�hUit Lu ,UL?L4�U 6*�U|�@|�L?t �? |�i N?�|i_ 5|@|it�c "�@h|ih*)aL�h?@* Lu ,UL?L4�Utc �f�c 2c ������2�

6@�hc +� ��c @?_ +� a� 5��**ih E�bHb� RA�i W?uLh4@|�L?@* �L?|i?| Lu , �?|i 6Lhi�U@t|t�c +i��i� Lu ,UL?L4�Ut @?_ 5|@|�t|�Utc .�c 2c �2D�����

6�t�ihc �� B�c @?_ �� 5@*4L? E�bHS� R�? ,�@*�@|�?} |�i W4TLh|@?Ui Lu �L?*�?i@h�|)�? w@h}i �@UhLiUL?L4i|h�U �L_i*t�c W?|ih?@|�L?@* ,UL?L4�U +i��i�c 2.c �c S2D�SeS�

6�t�ihc �� B�c @?_ k� 6� @**�t E�bbf� RA�i O�t|Lh�U@* Ah@U!�?} �ihuLh4@?Ui Lu Nk�@UhLiUL?L4i|h�U �L_i*t �b.H�HD�c ,UL?L4�U �L_i**�?}c .c 2c �.b��b.�

6�**ihc `� ��c @?_ #� �� O@t3@ E�bHf� R�hi_�U|Lht uLh |�i 6�ht|�Lh_ih ��|Lhi}hitt��i�hLUitt�c aL�h?@* Lu ,UL?L4i|h�Utc ��c 2c ��b��D.�

B@**Lc B� �� E�bb�� R6LhiU@t| ,hhLh #iUL4TLt�|�L? �? @ �L?*�?i@h �L_i* ��|� �hL�

��t�L?@* #@|@�c �??@*it _< �,UL?L4�i i| _i 5|@|�t|�^�ic 22c �Th�*�a�?ic �f���2H�

B@**Lc B� �� E�bbS� R6LhiU@t| N?Uih|@�?|) +i_�U|�L? �? �L?*�?i@h �L_i*t�c aL�h?@*Lu |�i W|@*�@? 5|@|�t|�U@* 5LU�i|)c Dc �c .��bH�

B@**Lc B� ��c @?_ 6� a� O� #L? E�bb�� R6LhiU@t| N?Uih|@�?|) _�i |L N?hi*�@M*i #@|@�c,UL?L4�U @?_ 6�?@?U�@* �L4T�|�?}c �c 5Th�?}c eb�Sb�

BL*_Mih}ihc �� 5�c �� w� �@}@hc @?_ O� 5� �_i� E�bS�� RA�i �L�@h�@?Ui �@|h�Uit Lu+i_�Ui_�uLh4 �Li�U�i?|t @?_ Lu 6LhiU@t|t uLh @ 5|h�U|�h@* ,UL?L4i|h�U �L_i*�c,UL?L4i|h�U@c 2bc ec DDS�D.��

O@�|L�t!)c v�c @?_ �� @**@Ui E�b.2� R� 5|�_) Lu #�tUhi|�L?@h) @?_ �L?_�tUhi|�L?@h)�L?i|@h) @?_ 6�tU@* �L*�U�it �? |�i �L?|i | Lu 5|LU�@t|�U �@UhLiUL?L4i|h�U �L_�i*t�c �? V� ~@h?L��|3 Ei_�� A�i ��t�?itt �)U*i AL_@)c �@|�L?@* ��hi@� Lu ,UL�?L4�U +iti@hU�c �i� vLh!c 2S���fb E6�u|�i|� �??��iht@h) �L**L^���4 W��

O@**c �� E�bbe� R�i|�L_L*L}) @?_ A�iLh) uLh |�i �LL|t|h@T�c ��@T|ih �b �? +� 6�,?}*i @?_ #� w� �U6@__i? Ei_t�� O@?_MLL! Lu ,UL?L4i|h�Utc VL*�4i ec �Lh|��OL**@?_c �4t|ih_@4c 2�e��2�H��

eD

Page 48: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

O@44iht*i)c a� ��c @?_ #� �� O@?_tUL4M E�bSe� �L?|i �@h*L �i|�L_tc ��@T4@?@?_ O@**c wL?_L?�

Oi*!�ic `� w�c @?_ �� OLLTih E�bHH� R�? ,4T�h�U@* �?@*)t�t Lu |�i , |ih?@* #i�U�|c�bHf�HS�c ��@T|ih 2 �? +� �� �h)@?|c B� OL*|�@4c @?_ �� OLLTih Ei_t�� , |ih�?@* #i�U�|t @?_ |�i #L**@hG A�i ��| @?_ |�i �i?_�*�4c �hLL!�?}t W?t|�|�|�L?c@t��?}|L?c #���c �f�DS�

Oi?_h)c #� 6� E�b.b� R�hi_�U|��i 6@�*�hi @?_ ,UL?L4i|h�U �L_i**�?} �? �@UhLiUL?�L4�UtG A�i Ah@?t@U|�L?t #i4@?_ uLh �L?i)�c ��@T|ih b �? �� �h4ihL_ Ei_��,UL?L4�U �L_i**�?}G ��hhi?| Wtt�it @?_ �hLM*i4t �? �@UhLiUL?L4�U �L_i**�?}�? |�i Nk @?_ |�i N5c Oi�?i4@?? ,_�U@|�L? �LL!tc wL?_L?c 2�.�2e2�

Oi?_h)c #� 6� E�bHe� R�L?|i �@h*L , Tih�4i?|@|�L? �? ,UL?L4i|h�Ut�c ��@T|ih �S�? ~� Bh�*�U�it @?_ �� #� W?|h�*�}@|Lh Ei_t�� O@?_MLL! Lu ,UL?L4i|h�Utc VL*�4i 2c�Lh|��OL**@?_c �4t|ih_@4c b�.�b.S�

Oi?_h)c #� 6� E�bb.� RA�i ,UL?L4i|h�Ut Lu �@UhLiUL?L4�U 6LhiU@t|�?}�c ,UL?L4�UaL�h?@*c �f.c eeec ���f���D.�

Oi?_h)c #� 6�c @?_ +� `� O@hh�tL? E�b.e� R�L?|i �@h*L �i|�L_L*L}) @?_ |�i 54@**5@4T*i �i�@��L�h Lu �h_�?@h) @?_ A�L�t|@}i wi@t| 5^�@hit�c aL�h?@* Lu ,UL?L�4i|h�Utc 2c 2c �D���.e�

Oi?_h)c #� 6�c @?_ �� k� Ah��i_� E�b.2� R�@ �4�4 w�!i*��LL_ ,t|�4@|�L? Lu #�u�uihi?Ui ,^�@|�L?t ��|� �L��?} ��ih@}i ,hhLhtG � 5�4�*@|�L? 5|�_)�c +i��i� Lu,UL?L4�U 5|�_�itc �bc 2c ��.��eD�

OL^�ic ��c a� +� �@}?�tc @?_ �� �it@h@? E�bHH� RA�i , @U| ��*|��Tih�L_ �i@?�t^�@hi 6LhiU@t| ,hhLh uLh |�i 6�ht|�Lh_ih ��|Lhi}hitt��i �L_i*�c aL�h?@* Lu,UL?L4i|h�Utc �bc �c �2.��eS�

OL�hi)c ��c @?_ O� O� ki*i��@? E�bSb� R5�4�*@|�L? Viht�t �?@*)|�U@* 5L*�|�L?t�c�? A� O� �@)*Lh Ei_�� A�i #it�}? Lu �L4T�|ih 5�4�*@|�L? , Tih�4i?|tc #�!iN?��iht�|) �hittc #�h�@4c �Lh|� �@hL*�?@c 2f.�2���

W?|i 5L*�|�L?t E�bHb� A+�ww Viht�L? ��c +iuihi?Ui �@?�@*tc W?|i 5L*�|�L?tc �ii_��@4c �@tt@U��ti||t EVL*�4it ��S @?_ NT_@|it��

kLLT4@?tc A� �� E�be2� R5ih�@* �Lhhi*@|�L? @?_ "�@_h@|�U 6Lh4t �? �Lh4@* V@h��@M*it�c �??@*t Lu �@|�i4@|�U@* 5|@|�t|�Utc ��c �c �e��e�

w�c ��c @?_ B� ,� ��3L? E�bb�� R6LhiU@t| ,?UL4T@tt�?} @?_ �L_i* ,�@*�@|�L?�c��@T|ih b �? �� O@U!* @?_ �� O� it|*�?_ Ei_t�� ,UL?L4�U 5|h�U|�h@* ��@?}iG�?@*)t�t @?_ 6LhiU@t|�?}c 5Th�?}ih�Vih*@}c �ih*�?c �2����H�

�@i!@�@c k� E�bH.� R6�?�|i 5@4T*i �hLTih|�it Lu 5i�ih@* �hi_�U|Lht uhL4 @? ��|L�hi}hitt��i �L_i*�c ,UL?L4i|h�U A�iLh)c �c �c �Db��.f�

�@}?�tc a� +�c @?_ �� �it@h@? E�bHb� RA�i , @U| ��*|��Tih�L_ �i@?�t^�@hi 6LhiU@t|,hhLh uLh |�i 6�ht|�Lh_ih ��|Lhi}hitt��i �L_i* ��|� @? W?|ihUiT|�c aL�h?@* Lu,UL?L4i|h�Utc e2c 2c �D.��.b�

eS

Page 49: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

�@}?�tc a� +�c @?_ �� �it@h@? E�bb�� RA�i ��@t Lu 6LhiU@t|t uhL4 @ 6�ht|�Lh_ih��|Lhi}hitt�L?�c ,UL?L4i|h�U A�iLh)c .c 2c 222�2�D�

�@??c O� ��c @?_ �� @*_ E�be�� R�? 5|LU�@t|�U w�4�| @?_ �h_ih +i*@|�L?t��Tt�c�??@*t Lu �@|�i4@|�U@* 5|@|�t|�Utc �ec �c 2�.�22S�

�@h�@?Lc +� 5�c @?_ �� `� �hL�? E�bH�� R�t)4T|L|�U �i�@��Lh Lu �hi_�U|Lht �? @�L?*�?i@h 5�4�*|@?iL�t 5)t|i4�c W?|ih?@|�L?@* ,UL?L4�U +i��i�c 2ec �c D2��D�S�

�@h�@?Lc +� 5�c @?_ �� `� �hL�? E�bHb� R5|LU�@t|�U 5�4�*@|�L?c �hi_�U|�L? @?_V@*�_@|�L? Lu �L?*�?i@h �L_i*t�c ��@T|ih 2 �? w� +� k*i�? @?_ a� �@h^�i3 Ei_t��,UL?L4�Ut �? A�iLh) @?_ �h@U|�UiG �? ,U*iU|�U �TThL@U�c k*��ih �U@_i4�U ��M�*�t�ihtc #Lh_hiU�|c A�i �i|�ih*@?_tc �.��S�

�@h^�i3c a� E�bHb� RW?UL4i @?_ �h�Ui ,*@t|�U�|�it Lu 6Lhi�}? Ah@_i 6*L�tG ,UL?L�4i|h�U ,t|�4@|�L? @?_ �?@*)t�t Lu |�i N5 Ah@_i #i�U�|�c ��@T|ih S �? w� +� k*i�?@?_ a� �@h^�i3 Ei_t�� ,UL?L4�Ut �? A�iLh) @?_ �h@U|�UiG �? ,U*iU|�U �TThL@U�ck*��ih �U@_i4�U ��M*�t�ihtc #Lh_hiU�|c A�i �i|�ih*@?_tc �2b��.S�

�@h^�i3c a� E�bb�� RA�i #)?@4�Ut Lu N?Uih|@�?|) Lh |�i N?Uih|@�?|) Lu #)?@4�UtG5|LU�@t|�U a���h�it�c +i��i� Lu ,UL?L4�Ut @?_ 5|@|�t|�Utc .�c �c �2D�����

�@h^�i3c a�c @?_ �� +� ,h�UttL? E�bbf� R,�@*�@|�?} |�i �hi_�U|��i �ihuLh4@?Ui LuAh@_i�@UUL�?| �L_i*t�c W?|ih?@|�L?@* 6�?@?Ui #�tU�tt�L? �@Tih �L� �..c �L@h_Lu BL�ih?Lht Lu |�i 6i_ih@* +itih�i 5)t|i4c @t��?}|L?c #���c �@hU��

�@h^�i3c a�c @?_ �� +� ,h�UttL? E�bb�� R,�@*�@|�?} 6LhiU@t|t Lu |�i N�5� Ah@_i�@*@?Ui�c ��@T|ih �e �? +� �� �h)@?|c �� OLLTihc @?_ �� w� �@?? Ei_t�� ,�@*��@|�?} �L*�U) +i}�4itG �i� +iti@hU� �? ,4T�h�U@* �@UhLiUL?L4�Utc �hLL!�?}tW?t|�|�|�L?c @t��?}|L?c #���c S.��.�2�

�U�@h|�)c �� #� E�b.2� R� �L|i L? |�i 6LhiU@t|�?} �hLTih|�it Lu A�L 5|@}i wi@t|5^�@hit +it|h�U|i_ +i_�Ui_ 6Lh4t Q A�i 6�?�|i 5@4T*i �@ti�c W?|ih?@|�L?@*,UL?L4�U +i��i�c ��c �c .D.�.S��

��3L?c B� ,�c @?_ a��6� +�U�@h_ E�bHS� RA�i ,?UL4T@tt�?} �h�?U�T*i @?_ �|t �TT*��U@|�L? |L Ait|�?} �L?�?it|i_ O)TL|�itit�c ,UL?L4i|h�U@c Dec �c SD.�S.H�

�@}@hc �� w� E�bSb� R5|LU�@t|�U 5�4�*@|�L? Lu |�i �hLL!�?}t ,UL?L4i|h�U �L_i*�c��@T|ih �2 �? a� 5� #�iti?Mihh)c B� 6hL44c w� +� k*i�?c @?_ ,� k�� Ei_t�� A�i�hLL!�?}t �L_i*G 5L4i 6�h|�ih +it�*|tc �Lh|��OL**@?_c �4t|ih_@4c e2D�eDS�

�i@�ic O� +� E�b.�� R�? Nt�?} |�i �L ���**ih Ah@?tuLh4@|�L? ��|� ��*|�T*�U@|��i�L?}h�i?|�@* �ti�_L�h@?_L4 ��4Mih Bi?ih@|Lht�c �TT*�i_ 5|@|�t|�Utc 22c �c b2�b.�

��4ih�U@* �*}Lh�|�4t BhL�T E�bHe� O@?_MLL! uLh |�i ��B 6Lh|h@? ��Df w�Mh@h)Q +i*i@ti �c ��4ih�U@* �*}Lh�|�4t BhL�Tc � uLh_ E,_�|�L? 2c �L�i4Mih��

�hU�||c B� O�c @?_ O� 5� `�?L!�hc ah� E�bSb� R6�ht| �h_ih ��|Lhi}hitt�L?G W?uihi?Uic,t|�4@|�L?c @?_ �hi_�U|�L?�c ,UL?L4i|h�U@c �.c �c ���e�

e.

Page 50: L@h LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 U|LMih†bbH...L@h_LuBL ih?LhtLu|i6i_ih@*+itih i5)t|i4 W?|ih?@| L?@*6 ?@?Ui# tUtt L?˘@Tiht 4MihS2S U|LMih†bbH 6+ ,‘ +k6 +,ˇ Wˇ6 +,ˇ5AWB

�@}@?c �� E�bHb� R�? |�i +L*i Lu 5�4�*@|�L? �? |�i 5|@|�t|�U@* ,�@*�@|�L? Lu ,UL?L�4i|h�U �L_i*t�c aL�h?@* Lu ,UL?L4i|h�Utc efc �c �2D���b�

�i|ihtc 5� ��c @?_ #� �� 6hii_4@? E�bHD� RNt�?} |�i �LL|t|h@T |L ,�@*�@|i 6Lhi�U@t|�?} ,^�@|�L?t�c aL�h?@* Lu 6LhiU@t|�?}c ec �c 2D��2S2�

���**�Ttc �� �� �� E�b.b� RA�i 5@4T*�?} #�t|h�M�|�L? Lu 6LhiU@t|t uhL4 @ 6�ht|�Lh_ih��|Lhi}hitt�L?�c aL�h?@* Lu ,UL?L4i|h�Utc bc �c 2e��2S��

5@h}@?c a� #� E�b.D� R�t)4T|L|�U A�iLh) @?_ w@h}i �L_i*t�c W?|ih?@|�L?@* ,UL?L4�U+i��i�c �Sc �c .D�b��

5@h}@?c a� #� E�bH2� R�? �L?|i �@h*L ,t|�4@|it Lu �L4i?|t A�@| �hi W?�?�|i�c�? +� w� �@t4@?? @?_ B� 6� +�L_itc ah� Ei_t�� �_�@?Uit �? ,UL?L4i|h�UtG �+iti@hU� �??�@*c VL*�4i �c a�W �hittc Bhii?��U�c �L??iU|�U�|c 2S.�2bb�

5U�4�_|c �� E�b.e� RA�i �t)4T|L|�U #�t|h�M�|�L? Lu 6LhiU@t|t �? |�i #)?@4�U 5�4��*@|�L? Lu @? ,UL?L4i|h�U �L_i*�c ,UL?L4i|h�U@c e2c 2c �f���fb�

5�i?|L?c w� +�c @?_ `� w� aL�?tL? E�bSD� R�L4i?|t Lu @ 5ih�@* �Lhhi*@|�L? �Li��U�i?|�c aL�h?@* Lu |�i +L)@* 5|@|�t|�U@* 5LU�i|)c 5ih�it �c 2.c 2c �fH��2f�

5�4tc �� �� E�b.e� R#�t|h�M�|i_ w@}t�c ��@T|ih D �? �� #� W?|h�*�}@|Lh @?_ #� ��ki?_h�U! Ei_t�� 6hL?|�iht Lu "�@?|�|@|��i ,UL?L4�Utc VL*�4i 2c �Lh|��OL**@?_c�4t|ih_@4c 2Hb���2 E��|� _�tU�tt�L?��

5|ihMi?3c 6� ��c @?_ B� �@*3L*@h� E�bbf� R�*|ih?@|��i 5TiU��U@|�L?t Lu |�i ,hhLh�hLUitt �? |�i 5|LU�@t|�U 5�4�*@|�L? Lu ,UL?L4i|h�U �L_i*t�c aL�h?@* Lu �TT*�i_,UL?L4i|h�Utc Dc 2c ��.��Df�

Ah��i**@|Lc N�c @?_ ,� +i||Lhi E�bHS� R�hi*�4�?@h) #@|@ ,hhLht @?_ A�i�h W4T@U| L?|�i 6LhiU@t| ,hhLh Lu 5�4�*|@?iL�t�i^�@|�L?t �L_i*t�c aL�h?@* Lu ��t�?itt @?_,UL?L4�U 5|@|�t|�Utc ec ec eeD�eD��

A�u|ic ,� +� E�bH�� A�i V�t�@* #�tT*@) Lu "�@?|�|@|��i W?uLh4@|�L?c Bh@T��Ut �hittc��it��hic �L??iU|�U�|�

A�u|ic ,� +� E�bbf� ,?��t�L?�?} W?uLh4@|�L?c Bh@T��Ut �hittc ��it��hic �L??iU|�U�|�

A�u|ic ,� +� E�bb.� V�t�@* , T*@?@|�L?tG W4@}it @?_ "�@?|�|�itc ,��_i?Ui @?_ �@h�h@|��ic Bh@T��Ut �hittc ��it��hic �L??iU|�U�|�

@**�tc k� 6� E�bHe� R�L4T@h�?} A�4i�tih�it @?_ �L?*�?i@h �L_i*�M@ti_ 6LhiU@t|t�c� uLh_ ��**i|�? Lu ,UL?L4�Ut @?_ 5|@|�t|�Utc eSc ec �H���Hb�

@**�tc k� 6� E�bbD� Rw@h}i�tU@*i �@UhLiUL?L4i|h�U �L_i*�?}�c ��@T|ih S �? �� O��it@h@? @?_ �� +� `�U!i?t Ei_t�� O@?_MLL! Lu �TT*�i_ ,UL?L4i|h�UtG �@UhL�iUL?L4�Utc �*@U!�i** ��M*�t�ihtc � uLh_c ��2��DD�

it|c k� #� E�bbS� R�t)4T|L|�U W?uihi?Ui �ML�| �hi_�U|��i �M�*�|)�c ,UL?L4i|h�U@cSec Dc �fS.��fHe�

eH