8/2/2019 Estudo dos Animais Peonhentos no Estado do Par

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Probabilistic Modeling of Accident Cases by

Poisonous Animals in Para, Brazil

Adrilayne dos Reis Araujod, Diana Costa Oliveiraa, Edson Marcos Leal Soares Ramosc,

Jose Gracildo de Carvalho Juniore, and Silvia dos Santos de Almeidab

a Federal University of Para, Brazil, Email: diana.oliveira@icen.ufpa.br

b Federal University of Para, Brazil

c Federal University of Para, Brazil

d Federal University of Para, Brazil

e Federal University of Para, Brazil

Venomous animals are animals that, through a mechanism of defense and hunting, are able to inject into theirprey a toxic substance produced in their bodies, directly from specialized glands (tooth, sting) through whichthe poison pass. These animals act on instinct for survival. When feeling threatened, they immobilize theattacker and flee to a safe place [1]. In Para, about 70% of accident cases caused by venomous animals arecaused by snakes. In this sense, this study aims to evaluate statistically the accident cases caused by poisonousanimals in the Para, Brazil, from January 2007 to July 2011, by Exploratory Data Analysis and MultipleLogistic Regression. The input variables are the type of accident, or whether it was caused by a snake or otherpoisonous animals and local symptoms such as swelling, bruising and necrosis. It is observed that the obtainedchi-square goodness of fit shows that the model fits the data well. From the Exploratory Data Analysis, itis possible to highlight information such as, most patients are male, they have not completed the elementaryschool and the most likely part of the body to the animal attack is the foot. From the model, it was observedthat patients who had symptoms of edema, ecchymosis and necrosis have approximately 93% chance of having

an accident suffered by a serpent and patients who did not have the above symptoms have approximately 35%of chance to have suffered the accident by a snake. Patients who presented edema have almost 8 times morechances to have suffered the accident by a snake than the patient who does not have the problem, keeping allother variables constant.

References

[1] Animais Peconhentos, O Que Sao Animais Peconhentos? Animais Peconhentos Retrieved in November2011 from: http://animais-peconhentos.info/, 2011.

[2] A. Agresti, Categorical data Analysis, Wiley and Sons, New York, USA, 2003.

[3] M.N. Magalhaes and A.C.P. Lima, Nocoes de Probabilidade e Estatstica, Edusp, Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2004.

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