화재발생빈도 분석 비교 신규 화재 psa 방법론 중심 · 2018-01-01 · 8 epri...

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화재발생빈도 분석 비교 (신규 화재 PSA 방법론 중심)

한국전력기술㈜ 종합안전성평가연구그룹

김 성 현 ([email protected])

2013.10. 17

2

차 례

1. 화재 PSA 개요

2. 화재발생빈도 분석 방법론 비교

3. 점화원별 화재발생빈도 비교

4. 구역별 화재발생빈도 비교

5. 결론

3

1. 화재 PSA 개요

4

화재 PSA 개요

분석 목적

화재사건에 의한 노심손상빈도(CDF) 계산

화재와 관련된 설계 취약점 파악

화재관련 발전소 리스크 감소를 위한 안전성 향상 방안 제시

방법론

EPRI TR-105928(1995.12)

• Fire PRA Implementation Guide

NUREG/CR-6850(2005.8)

• Fire PRA Methodology for Nuclear Power Facilities

• 10CFR50.48(C) 에 따른 NFPA 805 구현 및 PSA 응용 분야 활용

5

기존 화재 PSA 수행 흐름도

정성 선별 기준 만족 ?

-기기 존재 유무

- 점화원 유무

- 전파 경로 유무

화재 구역 특성 파악

선별

제거

화재 발생빈도 계산

화재 전파 확률 계산

구역 상세 분석

발생빈도 > 1.0E-7/yr ?

정량화 모델 개발

화재 기인 초기사건 선정

구역 CDF > 1.0E-7/yr ?

선별

제거

Yes

Yes

No

No

정량화

선별

제거

No

Yes

FPRIAG 수행 흐름

6

신규 화재 PSA 수행 흐름도

NUREG/CR-6850 수행 흐름

지원 항목 A:

발전소 현장답사

항목 1:

발전소 경계 정의

및 분할

항목 3:

케이블 선정

항목 4:

정성적 선별분석

항목 6:

화재 발생 빈도

항목 7A:

정량적 선별분석( I )

항목 8:

예비화재거동분석

항목 7B:

정량적 선별분석(II )

항목 2:

화재 대상 기선정

항목 5:

화재기인 리스크

모델

항목 12:

사고후 화재

HRA( 선별분석 )

지원 항목 B:

화재 PSA DB

추가 항목

주요 변경 항목

보완 항목

항목 13:

지진-화재 상호

연관성 평가

항목 14:

화재 리스크 정량화

항목 15:

불확실성 및 민감도

분석

항목 16:

화재 PSA 문서화

항목 12B:

사고후 화재

HRA

상세 화재

시나리오 분석

항목 9:

상세 회로고장분석

항목 10:

회로 고장모드 분석

및 확률추정 분석

항목 11:

상세 화재거동 분석

A. 단일 격실

B. 다중 격실

C. 주제어실

7

2. 화재발생빈도 분석방법론 비교

8

EPRI TR-105928

EPRI TR-105928

Fire PRA Implementation Guide(1995) :FPRAIG

• 현재 까지 모든 국내 화재 PSA 수행의 기본 방법론

Fire Event Data Base

- NASC-178L(1993) : “Fire Event Database for U.S Nuclear

Power Plants”

- Records Set: 753

- Data collection Periods : 1965. 2 ~1988. 12/31

화재발생빈도

• 42개의 Bin 으로 구분

• Location 중심의 기기 구분

– 특히 전기캐비닛/펌프 등의 화재발생빈도를 건물별로 구분

• Transient : Cigarette smoking/ Extention cord/ Heater/ Candle/

Over Heating/Hot pipe => “Zero(0)” 빈도 가능

9

EPRI TR-105928

Bin Plant Location Fire Ignition Source Fire Frequency

Bin01 Auxiliary Building(PWR) Electrical cabinets 1.90E-02

Bin02 Auxiliary Building(PWR) Pumps 1.90E-02

Bin03 Reactor Building Electrical cabinets 5.00E-02

Bin04 Reactor Building Pumps 2.50E-02

Bin05 Diesel Generator Room Diesel generators 2.60E-02

Bin06 Diesel Generator Room Electrical cabinets 2.40E-03

Bin07 Switchgear Room Electrical cabinets 1.50E-02

Bin08 Battery Room Batteries 3.20E-03

Bin09 Control Room Electrical cabinets 9.50E-03

Bin10 Cable Spreading Room Electrical cabinets 3.20E-03

Bin11 Intake Structure Electrical cabinets 2.40E-03

Bin12 Intake Structure Fire Pumps 4.00E-03

Bin13 Intake Structure Others 3.20E-03

Bin14 Turbine Building T/G Excitor 4.00E-03

Bin15 Turbine Building T/G Oil 1.30E-02

Bin16 Turbine Building T/G Hydrogen 5.50E-03

Bin17 Turbine Building Electrical cabinets 1.30E-02

Bin18 Turbine Building Other pumps 6.30E-03

Bin19 Turbine Building MF pumps 4.00E-03

Bin20 Turbine Building Boiler 1.60E-03

10

EPRI TR-105928

Bin Plant Location Fire Ignition Source Fire Frequency

Bin21 Radwaste Area Miscellaneous components 8.70E-03

Bin22 Transformer Yard Yard transformers(propagating to TB) 4.00E-03

Bin23 Transformer Yard Yard transformers(LOSP) 1.60E-03

Bin24 Transformer Yard Yard transformers(Others) 1.50E-02 Bin25 Plant-Wide Components Fire protection panels 2.40E-03

Bin26 Plant-Wide Components RPS MG sets 2.50E-03 Bin27 Plant-Wide Components Non-qualified cable run 6.30E-03

Bin28 Plant-Wide Components Junction box/splice-NQ cable 1.60E-03

Bin29 Plant-Wide Components Junction box-Qualified cable 1.60E-03

Bin30 Plant-Wide Components Transformers 7.90E-03 Bin31 Plant-Wide Components Battery Chargers 4.00E-03

Bin32 Plant-Wide Components Off-gas/H Recombiner (BWR) 8.60E-02

Bin33 Plant-Wide Components Hydrogen Tanks 3.20E-03 Bin34 Plant-Wide Components Misc. Hydrogen Fires 3.20E-03

Bin35 Plant-Wide Components Gas Turbines 3.10E-02 Bin36 Plant-Wide Components Air Compressors 4.70E-03

Bin37 Plant-Wide Components Ventilation Subsystems 9.50E-03 Bin38 Plant-Wide Components Elevator motors 6.30E-03

Bin39 Plant-Wide Components Dryers 8.70E-03

Bin40 Plant-Wide Components Transients 1.30E-03

Bin41 Plant-Wide Components Cable fires caused by Weldling 6.30E-03

Bin42 Plant-Wide Components Transient fires caused by W/C 3.10E-02

11

NUREG/CR-6850

NUREG/CR-6850

Fire PRA Methodology in Nuclear Power Facilities

(2005)

Fire Event Data Base

- EPRI TR-1003111(2001):Fire Event Database and Generic

Igniting Frequency Model for U.S Nuclear Power Plants

- Records Set: 1885

- Data collection Periods : 1968 ~ 2000. 12/31(32년 이상)

- Data Source

- Public Fire Records : 206 records

* Licensee Event Reports(NRC)

- Non-Public Fire Records : 1679 records

* Nuclear Energy Insurance Limited(NEIL)

* Institute of Nuclear Power Operation’s(INPO) 등

12

EPRI 1016735

EPRI 1016735

Fire PRA Methods Enhancements(2008)

:초기 Pilot Plants 결과 검토의견 반영

• 초기화재 진압설비 재평가

• 주급수 펌프로인한 대형 유류화재 재평가

• 화재발생빈도 재평가

– Bin 15 와 Bin 16 변경

» Bin15 : Electrical Cabinet

» Bin15.1: Electrical Cabinet - Non HEAF

» Bin15.1: Electrical Cabinet - HEAF

– Bin16: High Energy Arcing Faults

» Bin16.1: Bust Duct

» Bin16.2: Iso-Phase Ducts

13

EPRI 1016735

개정된 Bin 빈도

NUREG/CR-

6850 Bin 빈도

14

EPRI 1016735

Bin Ignition Source Plant_location Frequency

Bin01 Batteries Battery Room 3.26E-04 Bin02 Reactor Coolant Pump Containment (PWR) 2.35E-03 Bin03 Transients and Hotwork Containment (PWR) 2.34E-03 Bin04 Main control board Control Room 8.24E-04

Bin05 Cable fires caused by welding and cutting - Aux

Control/Aux/Reactor Building 1.25E-03

Bin06 Transient fires caused by welding and cutting -Aux

Control/Aux/Reactor Building 2.46E-06

Bin07 Transients (Aux Bldg) Control/Aux/Reactor Building 4.81E-03

Bin08 Diesel generators Diesel Generator Room 5.04E-03

Bin09 Air compressors Plant-Wide Components 4.65E-03

Bin10 Battery chargers Plant-Wide Components 1.18E-03

Bin11 Cable fires caused by welding and cutting - PW

Plant-Wide Components 9.43E-04

Bin12 Cable run Plant-Wide Components 1.32E-03

Bin13 Dryers Plant-Wide Components 4.20E-04

Bin14 Electric motors Plant-Wide Components 3.41E-03

Bin15.1 Electrical cabinets-Non HEAF Plant-Wide Components 2.36E-02

Bin15.2 Electrical cabinets-HEAF Plant-Wide Components 1.06E-03

Bin16.1 Bus Duct Plant-Wide Components 1.27E-03

Bin16.2 Iso-Phase Ducts Plant-Wide Components 8.24E-04

Bin17 Hydrogen tanks Plant-Wide Components 1.18E-03

Bin18 Junction box Plant-Wide Components 1.11E-03

Bin19 Miscellaneous hydrogen fires Plant-Wide Components 1.24E-03

15

EPRI 1016735

Bin Ignition Source Plant_location Frequency

Bin20 Off-gas/H2 Recombiner(BWR) Plant-Wide Components 8.83E-03

Bin21 Pumps Plant-Wide Components 1.42E-02

Bin22 RPS MG sets Plant-Wide Components 9.33E-04

Bin23 Transformers Plant-Wide Components 8.02E-03

Bin24 Transient fires caused by W/C – PW Plant-Wide Components 3.65E-03

Bin25 Transients (Plant Wide) Plant-Wide Components 8.28E-03

Bin26 Ventilation subsystems Plant-Wide Components 6.12E-03

Bin27 Yard Transformer-catastrophic Transformer Yard 1.62E-03

Bin28 Yard Transformer-noncatastrophic Transformer Yard 8.38E-03

Bin29 Yard transformers (others) Transformer Yard 1.89E-03

Bin30 Boiler Turbine Building 9.78E-04

Bin31 Cable fires caused by W/C- TB Turbine Building 4.50E-04

Bin32 Main Feedwater pumps Turbine Building 5.44E-03

Bin33 T/G excitor Turbine Building 2.10E-03 Bin34 T/G hydrogen Turbine Building 3.23E-03 Bin35 T/G oil Turbine Building 3.89E-03

Bin36 Transient fires caused by W/C- TB Turbine Building 7.55E-03

Bin37 Transients (T/B) Turbine Building 3.41E-03

16

EPRI 1019259

NUREG/CR-6850 Supplement 1(EPRI

1019259)

Fire Ignition Source 관련 FAQs

• Ignition Source Counting Guidance for Electrical Cabinets (FAQ 06-0016)

• Ignition Source Counting Guidance for High-Energy Arcing Faults (HEAFS) (FAQ 06-0017)

• Ignition Source Counting Guidance for Main Control Board (MCB) (FAQ 06-0018)

• Miscellaneous Fire Ignition Frequency Binning Issues (FAQ 07-0031)

• BUS Duct(Counting) Guidance High-Energy Arcing Faults(FAQ 07-0035)

17

3. 점화원별 화재발생빈도 비교

18

점화원별 화재발생빈도 비교

NUREG/CR-6850 FPRAIG

Bin Ignition Source Plant_location Frequency Bin Ignition Source Plant_location Frequency

Bin01 Batteries Battery Room 3.26E-04 Bin08 Battery Room Batteries 3.20E-03

Bin02 Reactor Coolant Pump

Containment (PWR) 2.35E-03 Bin04 Reactor Building Pumps 2.50E-02

Bin05 Cable fires caused by W/C – Aux

Control/Aux/Reactor Building

1.25E-03

Bin41 Plant-Wide Components

Cable fires caused by Welding

6.30E-03 Bin31 Cable fires caused by W/C – TB

Turbine Building 4.50E-04

Bin11 Cable fires caused by W/C – PW

Plant-Wide Components

9.43E-04

Bin06 Transient fires caused by W/C–Aux


2.46E-06


Transient fires caused by W/C

3.10E-02 Bin36 Transient fires caused by W/C– TB

Turbine Building 7.55E-03

Bin24 Transient fires caused by W/C – PW


3.65E-03

Bin07 Transients (Aux Bldg)


4.81E-03


Transients 1.30E-03 Bin37 Transients (T/B) Turbine Building 3.41E-03

Bin25 Transients (Plant Wide)


8.28E-03

Bin08 Diesel Generators Diesel Generator Room

5.04E-03 Bin5 Diesel Generator Room

Diesel Generators

2.60E-02

19




Bin09 Air compressors Plant-Wide Components

4.65E-03 Bin36 Plant-Wide Components

Air Compressors 4.70E-03

Bin10 Battery chargers



Battery Chargers 4.00E-03

Bin12 Cable run Plant-Wide Components


NQ cable run 6.30E-03

Bin13 Dryers Plant-Wide Components


Dryers 8.70E-03

Bin14 Electric motors Plant-Wide Components


Elevator motors 6.30E-03

Bin17 Hydrogen tanks Plant-Wide Components


Hydrogen Tanks 3.20E-03

Bin18 Junction box Plant-Wide Components

1.11E-03 Bin28


Junction box/splice- N/Q cable

1.60E-03


Junction box in Q Cable

1.60E-03

Bin19 Miscellaneous hydrogen fires



Misc. Hydrogen Fires 3.20E-03

Bin20 Off-gas/H2 Recombiner(BWR)



Off-gas/H Recombiner (BWR)

8.60E-02

Bin22 RPS MG sets Plant-Wide Components


RPS MG sets 2.50E-03

Bin23 Transformers Plant-Wide Components


Transformers 7.90E-03

20




Bin15.1 Electrical Cabinets -Non HEAF


2.36E-02

Bin01 Auxiliary Building (PWR)

Electrical cabinets 1.90E-02

Bin03 Reactor Building Electrical cabinets 5.00E-02

Bin06 Diesel Generator Room

Electrical cabinets 2.40E-03

Bin07 Switchgear Room Electrical cabinets 1.50E-02

Bin10 Cable Spreading Room Electrical cabinets 3.20E-03

Bin11 Intake Structure Electrical cabinets 2.40E-03 Bin17 Turbine Building Electrical cabinets 1.30E-02


Fire protection panels

2.40E-03

Bin21 Pumps Plant-Wide Components

1.42E-02 Bin2

Auxiliary Building (PWR)

Pumps 1.90E-02

Bin12 Intake Structure Fire Pumps 4.00E-03 Bin18 Turbine Building Other pumps 6.30E-03

Bin26 Ventilation subsystems



Ventilation Subsystems

9.50E-03

Bin33 T/G excitor Turbine Building

2.10E-03 Bin14 Turbine Building T/G Excitor 4.00E-03

Bin34 T/G hydrogen Turbine Building

3.23E-03 Bin16 Turbine Building T/G Hydrogen 5.50E-03

Bin35 T/G oil Turbine Building

3.89E-03 Bin15 Turbine Building T/G Oil 1.30E-02

21




Bin27 Yard Transformer -catastrophic

Transformer Yard 1.62E-03 Bin23 Transformer Yard Yard transformers (LOSP)

1.60E-03

Bin28 Yard Transformer -noncatastrophic

Transformer Yard 8.38E-03 Bin22 Transformer Yard Yard transformers (propagating to Turbine Building)

4.00E-03

Bin29 Yard transformers (others)

Transformer Yard 1.89E-03 Bin24 Transformer Yard Yard transformers (Others)

1.50E-02

Bin30 Boiler Turbine Building 9.78E-04 Bin20 Turbine Building Boiler 1.60E-03

Bin32 Main feedwater Pumps

Turbine Building 5.44E-03 Bin19 Turbine Building Main Feedwater Pumps

4.00E-03

Bin04 Main control board Control Room 8.24E-04 Bin09 Control Room Electrical cabinets 9.50E-03

Bin03 Transients and Hotwork

Containment (PWR)

2.34E-03 Bin21 Radwaste Area Miscellaneous components

8.70E-03

Bin15.2 Electrical cabinets-HEAF


1.06E-03 Bin13 Intake Structure Others 3.20E-03

Bin16.1 Bus Duct Plant-Wide Components

1.27E-03

Bin16.2 Iso-Phase Ducts Plant-Wide Components

8.24E-04

22

4. 구역별 화재발생빈도 비교

23

구역별 화재발생빈도 비교

주요 PUMP실 비교

Fire Comp. Description NUREG/CR

-6850 FPRAIG

F050-A02C SI Pump Room 8.33E-05 3.37E-04

F050-A02D SI Pump Room 8.33E-05 1.83E-04

F050-A03A SI Pump Room 8.29E-05 1.83E-04

F050-A03B SI Pump Room 8.28E-05 1.83E-04

F055-A02A CCW Pump Room

8.71E-05 1.83E-04

F055-A02B CCW Pump Room

8.51E-05 6.46E-04

F055-A02C CCW Pump Room

9.41E-05 1.83E-04

F055-A02D CCW Pump Room

9.10E-05 1.83E-04

0.00E+00

1.00E-04

2.00E-04

3.00E-04

4.00E-04

5.00E-04

6.00E-04

7.00E-04

NUREG/CR-6850

FPRAIG

24


주요 전기기기실 비교


-6850 FPRAIG

F078-A25A 1E SWGR 01A Room

3.21E-04 8.05E-04

F078-AEEB 1E SWGR 01B Room

3.66E-04 1.04E-03

F157-A01D I & C EQUIP. Room

1.75E-04 2.06E-04

F157-A19C I & C EQUIP. Room

1.94E-04 2.38E-04


1.96E-04 2.61E-04

F157-A20C I & C EQUIP. Room

1.65E-04 1.91E-04


1.67E-04 1.76E-04

0.00E+00

2.00E-04

4.00E-04

6.00E-04

8.00E-04

1.00E-03

1.20E-03

NUREG/CR-6850

FPRAIG

25


임시가연물 비교


-6850 FPRAIG

F073-T08 Stair 8.68E-05 0.00E+00

F073-T10 Stair 8.68E-05 0.00E+00

F079-P01 Access Area 7.89E-05 0.00E+00

F100-A07C AFW Tank Room

1.01E-05 0.00E+00 0.00E+00

1.00E-05

2.00E-05

3.00E-05

4.00E-05

5.00E-05

6.00E-05

7.00E-05

8.00E-05

9.00E-05

NUREG/CR-6850

FPRAIG

26


주제어실 비교

Fire Comp. NUREG/CR

-6850 FPRAIG

F157-AMCR 1.22E-04 7.94E-03

0.00E+00

1.00E-03

2.00E-03

3.00E-03

4.00E-03

5.00E-03

6.00E-03

7.00E-03

8.00E-03

1.22E-04

7.94E-03

27


발전소 전체비교

Type NUREG/CR

-6850 FPRAIG

Fixed 1.02E-01 2.92E-01

Transient 3.39E-02 1.19E-03

Total Freq. 1.36E-01 2.93E-01

0.00E+00

5.00E-02

1.00E-01

1.50E-01

2.00E-01

2.50E-01

3.00E-01

FixedTransient

Total Freq.

1.02E-01

3.39E-02

1.36E-01

2.92E-01

1.19E-03

2.93E-01

NUREG/CR-6850

FPRAIG

28

5. 결론

29

결론

화재발생빈도 감소

신규화재 PSA 방법론 적용 시 각 구역별 화재발생빈도 감소 • 고정 점화원의 화재발생빈도 감소

• 임시 점화원의 화재발생빈도 증가

– 관련 철차서 보완 및 현장 관리를 통하여 충분히 낮출 수 있음

• 전체적인 구역별 화재발생빈도는 감소

노심손상빈도(CDF)의 중요한 인자가 되는 가장 최신의 화

재발생빈도 적용 및 평가

• 좀더 현실적인 화재 현상에 대한 빈도 평가 가능

• 가장 최근의 화재까지 반영된 공식 화재사건 DB

30

결론

현장 운전원들의 적극적 협조필요 Transient 관련 빈도의 현실적 평가 가능

화재발생빈도 감소만으로 반드시 전체 CDF가 감소하는것은 아님 CDF = 화재발생빈도 x 조건부 노심손상빈도 (CCDP)

• 신규화재 PSA 방법론 적용시 기존 분석 대비 분석 대상 기기의 증가 => 관련 CCDP 증가 요인

• 상세 회로분석 및 구역별 상세 화재 모델링을 통한 CCDP 증가 요인 제거 노력 필요

31

감사합니다.

화재발생빈도 분석 비교 신규 화재 psa 방법론 중심 · 2018-01-01 · 8 epri...

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