democritos developing the mobility credits integrated platform enabling travellers to improve urban...

DEMOCRITOS

DEMOCRITOS

DEveloping the MObility CRedits Integrated platform enabling travellers TO improve urban transport Sustainability

Aplicação de Créditos de Mobilidade em Lisboa?

Resultados do projecto DEMOCRITOS

Workshop POLÍTICAS DE PERMISSÃO DE MOBILIDADE URBANAPortagens urbanas, zonas de acesso restrito e créditos de mobilidade para cidades sustentáveis

• Lisboa • 14.09.2011

Project financed by the European Union

João Bernardino, TIS.PT

DEMOCRITOS

Workshop Políticas de Permissão de Mobilidade Urbana • Lisboa • 14.09.2011 2

Lisbon city Metropolitan area

-18%

-15%

2001 - 564.700 inhab.

1981

1991

+ 2%

+ 6%2001 – 2.682.700 inhab.

1981

1991

DEMOCRITOS


• ~400.000 vehic./day entering Lisbon

• ~150.000 vehic. from residents /day in circulation

PonteVasco da Gama

Norte

107.000 veíc./dia

96.000 veíc./dia82.000

veíc./dia

58 000 veíc./dia

34.000 veíc./dia

26.000 veíc./dia9.000

veíc./dia

Cascais

Sintra / Amadora

Amadora / Loures

Ponte25 Abril

Oeste

150.000 veíc. res./dia

DEMOCRITOS


Cascais

SOCIAL COSTS- Congestion- Air pollution- Climate change- Energy depence risk- Noise- Infrastructure degradation- Public space occupancy- Accidents

PonteVasco da Gama

Norte

107.000 veíc./dia

96.000 veíc./dia82.000

veíc./dia

58 000 veíc./dia

34.000 veíc./dia

26.000 veíc./dia9.000

veíc./dia

Sintra / Amadora

Amadora / Loures

Ponte25 Abril

Oeste

150.000 veíc. res./dia

COSTS!

QUALITY OF LIFE

DEMOCRITOS


2.800.000 € / dia útil

120.000 € /dia útil

115.000 € /dia útil

3.000.000 € /dia útil

700.000.000 € /ano(0,7% do PIB da Área

Metropolina de Lx)

Estimativas (viagem com O e/ou D em Lisboa)

280.000* horas / dia útil

* 30 anos de vida

30 ton part. + 760 ton NOx /dia útil

71.000 ton CO2

CascaisQUALITY OF LIFE

SOCIAL COSTS- Congestion- Air pollution- Climate change- Energy depence risk- Noise- Infrastructure degradation- Public space occupancy- Accidents

DEMOCRITOS


Effects of a mobility credits policy

DEMOCRITOS


Mobility credits modelling tool

• Traffic Model (Plano de Mobilidade de Lisboa)

- Performance of the road network

• Mobility Credits model- Prediction Effcts Trip changes

Lost timeLocal pollutantsGreenhouse gasesMonetary flows

DEMOCRITOS


Strategies

Sustainable load:

- Soft policy: social costs reduction 20%

- Radical policy: “ “ “ 75%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 150

20

40

60

80

100

120

Custos sociais

Redução 20% Redução 75%

Ano

%

20%75%

DEMOCRITOS


Results

Average price

Peak Off-peak

Soft policy 0,13 €/km 0,03 €/km

Radical policy 0,57 €/km 0,31 €/km

- Elasticities of demand to costs: Existence of uncertainty. Price flexibility important.

- Credit price differs per period of the day to account for congestion costs

DEMOCRITOS


Results

Vehicle-kilometres

• Distinct results in peak and off-peak time

• Off-peak time traffic may increase due to transfer of trips from peak time

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

%

Ano

Hora de ponta


20

40

60

80

100

120

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

%

Ano

Fora da hora de ponta


Peak time Off-peak time

DEMOCRITOS


Results

Equity

• Redistributive effect occurs if credits are attributed to individuals.

• If free credits are attributed to vehicles, redistributive effect is lost

... to income level

Credit allocation rules Income level

Free credits attributed to Low High

Individuals +2,79 €/month

-2,79 €/month

Vehicles ≈ 0 ≈ 0

DEMOCRITOS


Results

Equidade

• Groups of winners and losers are defined mostly by the location of free credit attribution.

... to residential location

Local de residência

Credits attributed to LisboaFora Lisboa

(AML)

Lisbon individuals 26 €/month -8 €/month

Metropolitan Area individuals -19 €/month 6 €/month

DEMOCRITOS


Long-term effects

In the long-term, individuals adapt structural decisions to the new policy reality by:

• Choosing work and home closer together

• Buying cleaner cars / having less cars

• Public transport may increase quality (higher revenues)

Therefore, the policy benefit/cost ratio improves in the long-term

The sooner the structural changes take, place, the sooner the higher benefits come; announce/execute measures in advance

DEMOCRITOS


Public acceptability

Political and institutional context

DEMOCRITOS


Public acceptability - survey

“Numa escala de 0 a 10, qual seria a possibilidade de você ser a favor de uma medida deste tipo?”

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Média5,4

Initial opinion on Mobility Credits

DEMOCRITOS



Opinion on car users paying for social costs they cause

“Parece-lhe justo que, quando um cidadão que utiliza o automóvel causa custos à sociedade, nomeadamente os de poluição, congestionamento e ocupação do espaço público, ele pague uma quantia por isso?”

Média5,0

• Result worsens under perspective on pure pricing system

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

DEMOCRITOS



“Agora tenha em conta estes factos decorrentes da introdução do sistema: (…) Se assumir que todos estes factos serão uma realidade num sistema de créditos de mobilidade, como avaliaria agora o sistema?”

Média6,1

• Acceptability for Mobility Credits improves after detailed explanation of benefits

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Opinion on Mobility Credits after second thought (benefits explained)

DEMOCRITOS



Conclusions (also coming from focus groups and discussion with politicians)

• Communicate benefits

• Present measure in package with other positive measures, particularly public transport improvements

• Notion of limits for sustainability and no raising of funds for the State do have positive effects on acceptability in Lisbon

DEMOCRITOS


Thank you for your attention and regards from Lisboa!

João Bernardino – [email protected]

João Vieira – [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

democritos developing the mobility credits integrated platform enabling travellers to improve urban...

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