ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net ricardo wilson-grau in rio de janeiro 15 december 2010 an outcome...

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Ricardo Wilson-Grau in Rio de Janeiro15 December 2010

An Outcome Mapping Learning Community

Webinar

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The fish soup development story

Inspired by Monika Jetzin, Global Water Partnership, Hungary

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Parents control

Parents influence

Parents contribute a

bit

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The difference between simple and complex fish soups

Example adapted from Getting to Maybe, How the World Is Changed?, Frances Westley, Brenda Zimmerman, Michael Q. Patton, Random House Canada, 2006.

Inspired by the IDRC EcoHealth and Complexity study group, with special thanks to Andrés Sánchez.

?

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A simple situationThe relations of cause and effect are known. The parents follow the great grandmother’s recipe for fish soup. The quantity and nature of the ingredients are spelled out, as well as the order in how they should be combined. The parents do not need expertise although of course experience in cooking helps. If they follow the recipe they will produce basically the same soup week after week.

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In the real world, the results can be much less certain. The great grandmother’s recipe is lost.Her recommended fish is not available in the market every week of the year.The family’s buying power varies from year to year.Children are different and change as they grow:

One becomes a vegetarian. Another goes on a diet. A third is simply rebellious.

Outside factors and actors influence the children – school, TV, friends and so forth

If only life were so simple!

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In such a complex situation The relationships of cause and effect are unknown until the

outcomes emerges. To produce a nutritious soup that their children will eat once a

week for the rest of their lives, the recipe is less important than the parents’ relationships with each son and daughter, and theirs with their social environment.

More than cooking experience, parent’s must rely on their sensitivity to their children’s needs and their own creativity inthe kitchen.

And they must accept uncertainty about the results.

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When the organisation and its reality are substantially

complex

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TimeTime

Conventional thinking…Conventional thinking…

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ACTIVITIESACTIVITIES

OUTPUTSOUTPUTS

OUTCOMESOUTCOMES

IMPACTIMPACT

INPUTSINPUTS

Inspired by Jeff Conklin, Inspired by Jeff Conklin, cognexus.orgcognexus.org

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TimeTime

… clashes with relationships of cause and effect that are unknown

ACTIVITIESACTIVITIES

OUTPUTSOUTPUTS

OUTCOMESOUTCOMES

IMPACTIMPACT

INPUTSINPUTS

Inspired by Jeff Conklin, Inspired by Jeff Conklin, cognexus.orgcognexus.org

Ricardo.Wilson-Grau@inter.nl.netRicardo.Wilson-Grau@inter.nl.net

ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net

… clashes with relationships of cause and effect that are unknown

OUTPUTOUTPUT

OUTCOMEOUTCOME

INPUTSINPUTS

ACTIVITYACTIVITY

INPUTSINPUTSACTIVITYACTIVITY

INPUTSINPUTS

ACTIVITYACTIVITY

INPUTSINPUTS

OUTPUTOUTPUT

OUTPUTOUTPUT

ACTIVITYACTIVITY

OUTPUTOUTPUT

OUTPUTOUTPUT

OUTCOMEOUTCOME

OUTCOMEOUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOMEOUTCOME

OUTCOMEOUTCOME

OUTCOME

OUTCOME

TimeTimeRicardo.Wilson-Grau@inter.nl.netRicardo.Wilson-Grau@inter.nl.net

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Implications for Outcome Mapping

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Simple situations

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

Intentional designYear #1 Year #2 Year #3

ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net

Simple situations

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

Monitoring

Intentional designYear #1 Year #2 Year #3

ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net

Simple situations

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

Evaluation Monitoring

Intentional designYear #1 Year #2 Year #3

ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net

Simple situations

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

Evaluation Monitoring

Intentional designYear #1 Year #2 Year #3

Complex situationsJ F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

Intentional designYear #1 Year #2 Year #3

ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net

Simple situations

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

Evaluation Monitoring

Intentional designYear #1 Year #2 Year #3

Complex situationsJ F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

MonitoringIntentional design

Year #1 Year #2 Year #3

ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net

Simple situations

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

Evaluation Monitoring

Intentional designYear #1 Year #2 Year #3

Complex situationsJ F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

Formative evaluation Monitoring

Intentional designYear #1 Year #2 Year #3

ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net

Simple situations

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

Evaluation Monitoring

Intentional designYear #1 Year #2 Year #3

Complex situationsJ F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

Summative evaluation

Formative evaluation Monitoring

Intentional designYear #1 Year #2 Year #3

ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net

Simple situations

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

Evaluation Monitoring

Intentional designYear #1 Year #2 Year #3

Complex situationsJ F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

Developmental evaluation

Year #1 Year #2 Year #3

ricardo.wilson-grau@inter.nl.net

THANK YOU!

Do you have questions or comments?