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8/12/2019 2011batalha_natalieSciCon

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Natalie Batalha

San Jose State University

Keplers Exoplanet Survey:

Honing in on eta-Earth


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Planet ConfirmationsKOI CatalogCompleteness


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Kepler-8

(2) Kepler-10

(6)Kepler-11

(3)Kepler-9

Kepler-6

Kepler-4

TrES-2

HAT-p-7

Kepler-5

HAT-p-11

Kepler-7

Feb 2011


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Kepler-8

KOI-428

(2) Kepler-10

(6)Kepler-11

(3)Kepler-9

Kepler-14Kepler-6

Kepler-4

Kepler-16

KOI-196

TrES-2

HAT-p-7

Kepler-19 (2)

Kepler-13

Kepler-15

KOI-423Kepler-5

HAT-p-11

Kepler-17

(3)Kepler-18Kepler-21

Kepler-22

Kepler-7

Kepler-12

Dec 2011


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Kepler-8

KOI-428

(2) Kepler-10

(6)Kepler-11

(3)Kepler-9

Kepler-14

Kepler-7

Kepler-6

Kepler-12

Kepler-4

Kepler-16

TrES-2

HAT-p-7

Kepler-19 (2)

Kepler-13

Kepler-15

KOI-423

Kepler-5

HAT-p-11

Kepler-17


Kepler-22

Buchhave et al. 2011 ApJS 197 3


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Kepler-8

KOI-428

(2) Kepler-10

(6)

Kepler-11(3)Kepler-9

Kepler-14

Kepler-7

Kepler-6

Kepler-12

Kepler-4

Kepler-16

TrES-2

HAT-p-7

Kepler-19 (2)

Kepler-13

Kepler-15

KOI-423

Kepler-5

HAT-p-11

Kepler-17


Kepler-22

Lissauer et al. 2011, Nature, 470, 53


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Kepler-8

KOI-428

(2) Kepler-10

(6)Kepler-11

(3)Kepler-9

Kepler-14

Kepler-7

Kepler-6

Kepler-12

Kepler-4

Kepler-16

TrES-2

HAT-p-7

Kepler-19

Kepler-13

Kepler-15

KOI-423

Kepler-5

HAT-p-11

Kepler-17


Kepler-22

Ballard et al 2011, arXiv:1109.1561


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Kepler-8

KOI-428

(2) Kepler-10

(6)Kepler-11

(3)Kepler-9

Kepler-14

Kepler-7

Kepler-6

Kepler-12

Kepler-4

Kepler-16

KOI-196

TrES-2

HAT-p-7

Kepler-19 (2)

Kepler-13

Kepler-15

KOI-423

Kepler-5

HAT-p-11

Kepler-17


Kepler-22

Doyle et al 2011, Science, 333, 1602


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Kepler-8

KOI-428

(2)Kepler-10

(6)Kepler-11

(3)Kepler-9

Kepler-14

Kepler-7

Kepler-6

Kepler-12

Kepler-4

Kepler-16

TrES-2

HAT-p-7

Kepler-19 (2)

Kepler-13

Kepler-15

KOI-423

Kepler-5

HAT-p-11

Kepler-17


Kepler-22


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Kepler-8

KOI-428

(2) Kepler-10

(6)Kepler-11

(3)Kepler-9

Kepler-14

Kepler-7

Kepler-6

Kepler-12

Kepler-4

Kepler-16

TrES-2

HAT-p-7

Kepler-19 (2)

Kepler-13

Kepler-15

KOI-423

Kepler-5

HAT-p-11

Kepler-17


Kepler-22


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Filling in the Mass-Radius Diagram


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Kepler-8

KOI-428

(2) Kepler-10

(6)Kepler-11

(3)Kepler-9

Kepler-14

Kepler-7

Kepler-6

Kepler-12

Kepler-4

Kepler-16

TrES-2

HAT-p-7

Kepler-19 (2)

Kepler-13

Kepler-15

KOI-423Kepler-5

HAT-p-11

Kepler-17


Kepler-22


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Accelerated Data Release

Recognizing the high demand for data, the project hasrevised its Data Release Policies, providing for a

significantly accelerated schedule.

September 23, 2011: Quarter 3 January 7, 2012: Quarter 4 through Quarter 6 July, 2012 October, 2012

http://archive.stsci.edu/kepler

http://nexsci.caltech.edu/
http://archive.stsci.edu/keplerhttp://archive.stsci.edu/kepler


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Candidates as of June 2010Q0-Q1: May-June 2009

Orbital Period in days

Siz

eRelativetoE

arth

Jun 2010


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Candidates as of Feb 2011Q0-Q5: May 2009 - Jun 2010

Orbital Period in days

Siz

eRelativetoE

arth

Jun 2010 Feb 2011


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17Orbital Period in days

Siz

eRelativetoE

arth

Candidates as of Dec 2011Q0-Q6: May 2009 - Sep 2010

Jun 2010 Feb 2011 Dec 2011


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Improved Vetting Statistics

0.2 arcsec source offset

9.1 arcsec source offset


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earth-size: 207 (+204%)super-earth-size: 680 (+136%)neptune-size: 1,181 (+78%)jupiter-size: 203 (+23%)

larger: 27 (+42%)

Size Distribution


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Size Distribution: Feb vs Dec

Size Relative to Earth


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21Equilibrium Temperature [K]

Siz

eRelativetoE

arth

Jun 2010 Feb 2011 Dec 2011

HZ Candidates48 with Teqbetween 185 and 303 K


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22Equilibrium Temperature [K]

Siz

eRelativetoE

arth

Jun 2010 Feb 2011 Dec 2011

HZ CandidatesTen with Rp< 2 Re(185 K < Teq< 303 K)


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23Orbital Period in days

SizeRelativetoEarth

The Multiplestwo - 247 three - 83 four - 28 five - 8one - 1425


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Distribution of Planet DiametersFor Orbital Periods < 50 Days

dN/dlogR=kR

k=2.90.5

=-1.920.11

Howard et al. 2011, arXiv: 1103.2541


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Factors Affecting Completeness1) Multi-Quarter Transit Search:

-Feb 2011 catalog: analysis of Q0-Q5 data based on non-pipeline tools to detect long-period events.

-Didnt benefit from pipeline whitening filters


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Factors Affecting Completeness2) Sudden Pixel Sensitivity Dropouts:

Transit detection analysis keys off on anomalous eventinstead of real transits.

Original flux

PDC

PDC-MAP


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Factors Affecting Completeness3) Pre-search Data Conditioning:

First generation filters occasionally introduced high frequencynoise. This has been greatly improved with PDC-MAP.

Original flux

PDC

PDC-MAP


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Looking Forward


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Stellar Noise: simulation vs observation

Nature477

, 142-143 (Sept 6, 2011)


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Stellar Noise: simulation vs observation

Range of solar variability. Gilliland et al. 2011 arXiv: 1107.5207

Simulated:

instrument: 17.3 ppmstars: 10 ppm

total: 20 ppm

Observed:instrument: 21.4

stars: 19.5

total: 29 ppm

45% higher than

expected


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Stellar Noise: simulation vs observation6.5-hr variability is stochastic and will average out over

multiple orbits

The goal of trueEarth-analogs is

reachable by

extending themission length

EXTENDED MISSION


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Life is about the people youmeet and the things you createwith them.


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Extended Mission

CommunicationsKa-band data rate expected to drop from 4.3 Mbits/s to 3.9 Mbits/s

in Summer 2012.

Lengthening the monthly contacts slightly will allow us to maintain

170k targets throughout primary mission.

Flexibility via target management, downlink duration, and downlinkfrequency thereafter.

Propellant:

Hydrazine is used by the thrusters which de-spin the reaction

wheels used to point the telescope.Based on current and predicted use and adding margin for safe-

modes, there is sufficient fuel to operate until Sep 2020.


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20-ppm

30 ppm

1.2-Re, P=365 d 1.0-Re, P=365 d

1.0-Re, P=365 d

1.0-Re, P=225 d

Stellar Noise: simulation vs observation6.5-hr variability is stochastic and will average out over

multiple orbits

Jenkins et al.: Poster 19.14

The goal of trueEarth-analogs is

reachable by

extending themission length

2011batalha_nataliescicon

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