Mudanças climáticas e uso da terra

Mercedes Bustamante

Departamento de Políticas e Programas Temáticos Secretaria de Políticas e Programas de Pesquisa e

Desenvolvimento

The great acceleration – a planet under pressure

Steffen et al, 2004

The increasing rates of change in human activity since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Significant increases in rates of change occur around the1950s in each case. Past 50 years have been a period of dramatic and unprecedented change in human history.

Planetary response

Steffen et al, 2004

The Economist, 2011

Human changes/thresholds to the Earth system Implications for global and regional sustainability

Land use changes in the tropics

• During the 1980-2000 period:

• > 50% of the new agricultural land across the tropics came at the expense of intact forests

• 28% came from disturbed forests

1973

1991 1999 1973

Deforestation From local to global...

• Concerns about ecosystem services and biodiversity, globally

• High rates of tropical deforestation have severe consequences

• Deforestation is a significant driver of global environmental change

What is behind deforestation?

• An intricate set of social, economic and political realities = multi-dimensional phenomenon.

• Most of the causes do not operate at the forest level

(Geist and Lambin, 2002)

What is behind deforestation?

• 3 dominant proximate causes of deforestation: agricultural expansion infrastructure extension wood extraction

• Interacting with 5 principal underlying factors : demography, economy,

technology, policy and cultural variables

(Geist and Lambin, 2002)

Emissions sources and trends

• The average annual value for global C flux from AFOLU from 2000 to 2009 is within the uncertainty ranges determined for the 1980s and 1990s.

• The AFOLU sector is responsible for about one third of anthropogenic GHG emissions

• Primarily from deforestation, forest degradation and biomass burning.

• Additional contributions from agricultural emissions associated with livestock and soil and nutrient management (esp. CH4 and N2O).

10 Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use

b)

1,271,12 1,10 1,14

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 1990-2007

net

C e

mis

sio

s p

er

year,

Gt

C/y

r

a)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1980-

1989

1990-

1999

2000-

2009

1990-

2010

CO

2e

q., G

t C

/yr

fires (CO2)

agricultural soils(N2O)

manure management(CH4 and N2O)

rice cultivation (CH4)

enteric fermentation(CH4)

deforestation (CO2)

Global trends in CO2 eq emissions from AFOLU

Net C emissions from land use, land use change and forestry

Latin America and environmental changes

• The region is a key player in the global arena for both conservation and economic progress.

Largest continuous area of tropical forests

unpolluted temperate forests

Large areas of savannas

The diversity of landscapes creates a myriad of habitats and biodiversity

Extremely high diversity of climate zones due to: its wide latitudinal (and temperature) range contrasting precipitation gradients due to the presence of the Andes

mountain range.

Megadiverse countries

Six countries in Latin America 17 Megadiversity Countries have within their borders more than two thirds of our

planet's biological wealth, its biodiversity.

Recent changes in Latin America

• The relatively political stability LA has been experiencing in the last decades has allowed for unprecedented economic growth in the region.

• The downside of this development:

rapid and intense loss of natural habitats due to biomass burning and land conversion, especially in its tropical zone,

coupled with a persistent and pervasive social inequality.

% Remaining Foresta Area in Latin America

Biodiversity hotspots in LA high levels of endemisms and rapid loss of habitats

Brazilian Biomes

4.2 million km2

49%

2.0 million km2

24%

Brazil – Land use changes and CO2 emissions -2005

Source: Adapted from MCT, 2010a. Second Brazil National Communication to the UN Framework Convention

on Climate Change. Brasília: MCT –General Coordination on Global Climate Change.

Deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon compared with GDP

Before PPCDAm After PPCDAm GDP (US$)

Def

ore

stat

ion

km

2/

yr

Deforestation

downward trend

Deforestation rates in the Cerrado • Deforestation in the Cerrado is more

severe than in Amazonia.

• Main driver= agricultural expansion

• 2002-2008 deforestation (% of the area of the biome) – Amazon = 3.2%

– Cerrado = 4.1%

• Remaining original forested

area: – Amazon = 82%

– Cerrado = 52%

Remaining Cerrado

Total deforestation

by 2008 = 48.2%

Pain

el B

rasi

leir

o d

e M

ud

an

ças

Cli

máti

cas Land use changes in the

Brazilian Biomes

Amazônia

Cerrado

Caatinga

Pantanal

Mata Atlântica

Pampa

1 Base MMA / PROBIO 2002 (Revisto com base em 2008 / IBAMA)

2 MCT, 2010, Relatório de Referência, emissões de gases de efeito estufa no setor uso da terra, mudança do uso da terra e florestas. 3 Leite et al., 2012, Historical land use change and associated carbon emissions in Brazil from 1940 to 1995, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, vol. 26

- Conversão uso da terra 1

- Estoque de Carbono 2

- Emissões de CO2 2, 3

Área original

(km2) - IBGE

4.221.887

Área convertida

(km2)

588.000

Área convertida

(%)

14%

Estoque de C no

bioma original

(Pg C)

68,4

Emissão líquida

(Pg CO2)

Total 1940 - 2002

22,56 ± 6,9

Amazônia

Área original

(km2) - IBGE

2.051.776

Área convertida

(km2)

971.373

Área convertida

(%)

47%

Estoque de C no

bioma original

(Pg C)

21,3

Emissão líquida

(Pg CO2)

Total 1940 - 2002

20,36 ± 9,9

Cerrado

Área original

(km2) - IBGE

1.116.330

Área convertida

(km2)

968.000

Área convertida

(%)

88%

Estoque de C no

bioma original

(Pg C)

17,6

Emissão líquida

(Pg CO2)

Total 1940 - 2002

27,76 ± 15

Mata Atlântica

Área original

(km2) - IBGE

850.809

Área convertida

(km2)

375.116

Área convertida

(%)

44%

Estoque de C no

bioma original

(Pg C)

6,5

Emissão líquida

(Pg CO2)

Total 1940 - 2002

1,07 ± 0,44

Caatinga

Área original

(km2) - IBGE

177.824

Área convertida

(km2)

105.000

Área convertida

(%)

59%

Estoque de C no

bioma original

(Pg C)

1,3

Emissão líquida

(Pg CO2)

Total 1940 - 2002

0,438 ± 0,25

Pampa Pantanal

Área original

(km2) - IBGE

151.486

Área convertida

(km2)

22.971

Área convertida

(%)

15%

Estoque de C no

bioma original

(Pg C)

0,65

Emissão líquida

(Pg CO2)

Total 1940 - 2002

1 ± 0,47

TOTAL

Área original

(km2) - IBGE

8.570.112

Área convertida

(km2)

3.030.460

Área convertida

(%)

35%

Estoque de C no

bioma original

(Pg C)

115,75

Emissão líquida

(Pg CO2)

Total 1940 - 2002

73,188 ± 33

Impacts of conversion...

Changes in fire regime – more frequent fires ,

changes in vegetation structure

Impacts on: 1. carbon storage

2. Exchange of heat and energy with the atmosphere

3. Conservation of water resources

Replacement of native systems

with heterogeneous canopy and

deep roots by:

Grasses or annual crops with

homogeneous canopy and shallow

roots

Freitas Longo and Silva Dias, 1996

SCAR-B, 1995

He

ight

Fires in Brazil • between 5% and 9% of the

global burned areas occurs in South America

• Brazil concentrates 63% of the total fires

• ~70% of burned areas in Brazil occurs in the Cerrado

• Rapid occupation of the Cerrado region = changes in natural fire regime (season and frequency of burning)

Source:BURNINGS IN THE BRAZILIAN SAVANNA: A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS ON KEY

BIOPHYSICAL DRIVERS USING MODIS AND TRMM DATA 1Arielle E. Arantes, 1Laerte G.

Ferreira, 1Fernando M. Araújo

Distribution of the total area burned (2002-2010) according to the classes of land use and natural vegetation cover

Cerrado biome is adapted to fire, and in some ways dependent on its occurrence.

But… the majority of natural vegetation areas that are burned (~ 82%) are related to the opening of new grazing and agriculture areas.

Ano

Áre

a Q

uei

mad

a (k

m2)

Fires in Cerrado

Impacts of biomass burning

Changes in atmospheric chemistry: Emissions of CO, CH4, NOx, N2O Precursors of O3 (GHG, phytotoxic, <

plant productivity Release of black carbon (climate forcing

agent, < albedo) Transboundary air pollution

Deforestation and Biodiversity

• Intense fragmentation of habitats

• Difficulties for dispersal of species to reach areas with more favorable climates through the agricultural matrix.

Loss of habitas + Climate change + small area protected

= Significant changes in species distribution and abundance

Remaining Cerrado

Total deforestation

by 2008 = 48.2%

Climate change Distribution of tree species - Cerrado

Present 1961-1990

Siqueira e Peterson, 2003

Conservative Scenario of Climate Change

Less conservative Scenario

162 tree species

Deforestation and water resources

Conservation status of 15612 watersheds

(0 to 100%)

Index of conversion

Paraná

1,229,824 km2 (62%)

Tocantins-Araguaia

762,141 km2 (35%)

São Francisco

621,793 km2 (36%)

Ferreira, L.G. LAPIG, UFG

Brazil - Land tenure structure

Number of rural properties

Total area of rural properties

Forest cover in rural landholdings Forestry legislation required for Cerrado:

Legal Reserve (RL).

• 20-35% of the private landholding area with native vegetation cover

AND

Areas of Permanent Preservation (APPs)

• Landholders must protect the natural vegetation in areas =>

• Avoid risk of erosion

• Protect headwaters and water bodies

Official authorization to convert forests outside RL and APPs

• Within % permitted by law and mandatory

% of Area of Brazilian Biomes in Conservation Units

9,8%

1,1% 3,1% 2,3%

0,9% 2,9%

0,1%

16,6%

6,4% 5,1% 7,3%

2,4%

1,5%

1,4%

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

25,0%

30,0%

Amazônia Caatinga Cerrado Mata Atlântica Pampa Pantanal Área Marinha

% d

a ár

ea d

o b

iom

a em

UC

Proteção Integral Uso Sustentável

Land tenure: The need to involve the private sector

• A landscape strategy involving public protected and rural properties allows the insertion of new stakeholders (landholders) and is most effective for climate protection, conservation of natural resources and biodiversity.

33

Mitigation options • Production-side options

• Reducing GHG emissions per unit of land or per unit of product (e.g. avoiding deforestation, fertilizer management, bioenergy)

• Increasing carbon sequestration at landscape level (e.g., afforestation, agroforestry)

• Demand-side options

• Reducing losses and wastes of food, changes in diet

• Product substitution (increase in wood products.

Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use

Bioenergy and Land use changes

34

• Bioenergy systems deliver large GHG savings if:

– they replace fossil-based energy

– the bioenergy production emissions – including those arising due to LUC– are kept low

• GHG emissions from LUC of some bioenergy schemes can be large, in some cases more than a hundred times larger than the annual GHG savings from the fossil fuel displacement.

• Bioenergy-related policies and regulations may fail to reach their stated objective of climate change mitigation if they fail to take the full GHG effects of bioenergy into account.

• Synergistic strategies (multi-purpose systems, improve post‐harvest biomass use efficiency and wise integration with agriculture and forests) together with sustainability criteria may result in substantive GHG mitigation from bioenergy.

Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use

Costs and Potentials • Available top-down estimates of

costs and potentials suggest that AFOLU mitigation will be an important part of a global cost-effective abatement strategy under different stabilization scenarios.

• A consolidated estimate of economic potentials for GHG mitigation within the AFOLU sector as a whole is still difficult:

– potential leakages derived from competing demands on land

– only some of the potentials are additive.

35

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Mt

CO2-

e

Carbon price ($US/t CO2-e)Smith et al. 2008Golub 2009Sedjo et al. 2001Rose and Songhen 2011 - Policy DC1Rose and Songhen 2011 - Ideal policy scenarioIPCC (2007)Sohngen (Copenhagen Consensus)Rose at al. (2011) - GRAPE EMF-21 4.5 W/m2

Forestry

Agriculture

Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use

Reality over the coming decades…

•= a set of competing land uses.

•Pressures will grow to provide

more people with food, fuel, and

fiber.

• Interactions between local and

global environmental changes

Land use and climate change: a two-way road...

Agriculture activities +

increase in fire frequency

Direct impact of greenhouse gas emissions

Climate change

Changes in temperature and water availability

GHG mitigation potential - Important considerations

38

Land cover Land use change

Food and water security Ecosystem services

Biodiversity Livelihoods

Sustainable Development

Dimensions Issues

Social and human framework

Population growth and migration, level of education, human capacity, existence and forms of social organization, indigenous knowledge and cultural background, equity and food security

Natural assets Availability of natural resources (land, forest, water, agricultural land, minerals, fauna, etc), GHG balance, ecosystem integrity, biodiversity conservation, ecosystem services, ecosystem productive capacity, climate change resilience and vulnerability

State of infrastructure and technology

Availability of infrastructure and technology, technology development, appropriateness, acceptance

Economic factors Credit capacity, employment creation, income, wealth distribution/distribution mechanisms, carbon finance

Institutional arrangements

Land tenure and land use rights, participation and decision making mechanisms, sectoral and cross-sectoral policies

39

Issues related to AFOLU mitigation options and sustainable development

Interconnected issues require interconnected solutions

Coordination of policies • Improvement of information systems and

applications in decision making

+

• Coordination of policies for leverage sustainable and low carbon production systems

Increase productivity

Decrease deforestation

Decrease overall emissions pattern

Benefit people whose livelihoods depend on natural ecosystems

Regional Demands

• Land cover and use dynamics, biodiversity - monitoring

• Impacts and strategies of landscape planning and zoning

• Uses of natural resources and economic evaluation

• Models of restoration of degraded ecosystems

• Dissemination of sustainable technologies

What is needed...

1. To establish a research agenda emphasizing the complex, and coupled, socio-ecological dimensions of environmental changes.

2. To identify and produce detailed spatial information in order to support regionally appropriate policies.

Biomass distribution Areas for conservation

Figure Ferreira and Bustamante

Watersheds and hydroeletric plants

Land use

Warming temperatures (as of 2012)

A1B, A2: A (late 20th-century) 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely to become a 1-in-2

year event by the end of the 21st century in most regions, except in the high latitudes

of the Northern Hemisphere, where it is likely to become a 1-in-5 year event

Water and Energy Generation

As warming increases competition for water, the energy sector will be strongly affected as power plants require large amounts of water cooling.

Water Supply Reduced summer runoff, increases winter runoff, and increasing demands will compound current stresses on water supplies and flood management.

Heat Waves Heat waves will become more frequent and intense, increasing threats to human health and quality of life, specially in cities.

Energy Supply Warming will decrease demand for heating energy in winter and increase demand for cooling energy in summer. The latter will result in significant increases in electricity use and peak demand.

Agriculture Increasing heat, pests, floods, weeds, and water stress will present increasing challenges for crop and livestock production, ecosystems will be lost.

Coastal Communities Sea-level rise and storm surge will increase threats to homes and infrastructure including water, sewer, transportation, and communication systems. Many barrier islands and coastal marshes that protect the coastline and support healthy ecosystems will be lost.

Heavy downpours More rain is already coming in very heavy events, and this trend is projected to increase. Such events are harmful to transportation, infrastructure, agriculture, water quality, and human health.

Climate Change - Adaptation

• Greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase

• The planet is warming

• Mitigate, Adapt or Suffer…

• Adaptation to current climate variability is inadequate > ‘Adaptation Gap’

• Some barriers to adaptation planning:

• Lack of information at relevant scales

• Uncertainty in available information

• Lack of useful information

Slide from D. Liverman

Ecosystem-Based Adaptation: integrated strategies to protect people and nature

Use nature to protect people & sustain ecosystem services & social

systems

Protect nature from adverse

impacts

Wetlands for flood control Fire-adapted forests to protect homes Recharge areas for water supply Soil fertility for agriculture

Forests Grasslands Wetlands Streams & rivers Plants & animals

Synergies of Mitigation and Adaptation - AFOLU

54

Diversification of production systems • Crop

diversification • Multi-species

plantation forestry

• Regeneration of native species

Integration of production systems • Crop/livestock • Agroforestry • Promotion of

legumes in crop rotations

• Adoption of short-rotation commercial species

Management practices and technologies • Soil, nutrient and

water conservation practices

• High quality seeds,

• avoiding burning of crop residues

Ecosystem conservation and restoration • Forest

Conservation • Protected Area

Management • Afforestation

and reforestation

• Control of wildfires

Need for mitigation and adaptation

• Policies to address mitigation and adaptation arise in the

context of many different forms of uncertainty, including

uncertainties:

• On emission patterns

• On technologies

• And on the effects of policies

As such, the pervasive uncertainties put a premium on policy strategies that are robust over many criteria and able to respond to unexpected events

Slide from R. Schaeffer

Sustainable Agriculture, Food, society and environment

Reducing the diet gap.

Reducing yield gap.

Current food

availability

Reducing Yield gap

ModifyingDiet

Reducing Waste

Fole

y e

t a

l. 2

011

1. Stop expanding agricultural land

2. Increase agricultural efficiency

3. Close the diet gap, reducing waste and choosing the right crops

4. Close yield gaps on underperforming landscapes

• Deployed simultaneously these strategies can increase food availability by 100-180%.

• At the same time - reducing greenhouse gas emissions,

biodiversity loss, pollution and water use.

Concluding remarks • Interactions between local and global

environmental changes pose new challenges for the conservation of tropical ecosystems.

• Discussion on economic development and environmental sustainability is still very polarized.

• The improvement of information systems and

applications in decision making and coordination of policies for the implementation of alternative production systems are crucial.

• Social equality is a key component in order to achieve the equilibrium of economic progress, sustainability and conservation.

Thank you!