eia aeo2011 slides
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www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Spring, 2011 | Washington, DC
Annual Energy Outlook 2011Reference Case
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Key results from the AEO2011 Reference case,
which assumes current laws remain unchanged
2AEO2011, April 2011
Increased estimates for U.S. shale gas resources drive increasedU.S. production, lower prices, and lower imports of natural gas
Industrial natural gas demand recovers, reversing recent trend
Non-hydro renewables and natural gas are the fastest growingelectricity generation sources, but coal remains the dominant fuelbecause of the large amount of existing capacity
Oil imports fall due to increased domestic productionincludingbiofuelsand greater fuel efficiency
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions rise slowly, but do not pass 2005levels again until 2027
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What is included (and excluded) in developing EIAs
Reference case projections?
3
Generally assumes current laws and regulations excludes potential future laws and regulations (e.g., proposed greenhouse gas legislation
and proposed fuel economy standards are not included)
provisions generally sunset as specified in law (e.g., renewable tax credits expire)
Some grey areas
adds a premium to the capital cost of CO2-intensive technologies to reflect market behaviorregarding possible CO2 regulation
assumes implementation of existing regulations that enable the building of new energyinfrastructure and resource extraction
Includes technologies that are commercial or reasonably expected
to become commercial over next decade or so includes projected technology cost and efficiency improvements, as well as cost reductions
linked to cumulative deployment levels
does not assume revolutionary or breakthrough technologies
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Key updates included in the AEO2011
Reference case
4
Natural gas and oil supply more than doubled the technically recoverable U.S. shale gas resources assumed in
AEO2010 and added new shale oil resources
updated offshore data and assumptions, pushing out start dates for several projects as aresult of the drilling moratoria and delaying offshore leasing beyond 2017
Electricity updated costs for new power plants
expanded number of electricity regions to 22 from 13, allowing better regionalrepresentation of market structure and power flow
Transport
increased limit for ethanol blending into gasoline from E10 to E15 for approved vehicles
includes Californias Low Carbon Fuel Standard, which reduces the carbon intensity ofgasoline and diesel fuels in that state by 10% from 2012 through 2020
revised light duty vehicle miles travelled downward
updated electric and plug-in hybrid electric battery cost and size
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Global energy consumption
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Non-OECD countries account for vast majority of the nearly
50% projected increase in global energy use by 2035
6
495
544591
639
687
739
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2007 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
energy consumption
quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010
Non-OECD
OECD
USA
50%
50%
62%
38%
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Overview of U.S. energy
supply and demand
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Current U.S. energy supply is 83% fossil fuels;
demand is broadly distributed among the major sectors
8
Petroleum35.30%
NaturalGas
23.40%
Coal19.70%
Renewable7.70%
Nuclear8.30%
2009 total U.S. energy use = 94.6 quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Review 2009
Industrial18.80%
Transportation
27.00%
Residentialand
Commercial
10.60%
Electricity -Residential
14.60%
Electricity -Commerci
al14.17%
Electricity -Industrial
9.45%
Energy supply Energy demand
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Renewables grow rapidly, but under current policies fossil fuels
still provide 78% of U.S. energy use in 2035
9
Nuclear
Oil and other liquid
fuels
Liquid biofuels
Natural gas
Coal
Renewables(excluding liquid
biofuels)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
U.S. primary energy consumption
quadrillion Btu per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
History Projections2009
37%
25%
21%
9%
7%
1%
33%
24%
21%
10%
8%
3%
Shares of total U.S. energy
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Energy efficiency gains reduce consumption 13% from where it
would otherwise be; structural change is even larger
10
quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Constant Intensity
ConstantEfficiency
Reference CaseConsumption
Efficiencychange
Structuralchange-33%
-13%
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Energy and CO2 per dollar of GDP continue to decline;
per-capita energy use also declines
11
index, 2005=1
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Per dollar
Per capita
CO2 per GDP
History Projections2009
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Energy-related CO2 emissions
2005 2020 2035
Energy-related CO2emissions
6.00 5.78 6.31
% change from 2005 - - -3.7% 5.2%
In the AEO2011 Reference case, energy-related CO2 emissions
grow 5% over 2005 levels by 2035
12
billion metric tons carbon dioxide
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
ProjectionsHistory 20092005
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Electricity
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In 2009, U.S. electricity generation was 70% fossil fuels, 20%
nuclear, and 10% renewable
Nuclear20.2%
Natural gas23.3%
2009 Total net generation:
3,953 billion kWh
Coal44.6%
2009 Non-hydro renewable
net generation:141 billion kWh
Geothermal: 0.4%Other biomass: 0.5%
Wood and wood-derived fuels: 0.9%
Otherrenewable
3.6%
Conventionalhydroelectric
6.9%
Other0.3%
Wind: 1.8%
Solar thermaland PV:
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While projected electricity consumption grows by 30%, the rate
of growth has slowed
15
percent growth (3-year rolling average)
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Projections
History
Period Annual Growth
1950s 9.8
1960s 7.31970s 4.7
1980s 2.9
1990s 2.4
2000-2009 0.5
2009-2035 1.0
2009
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
45%
23%
10%
20%
1%
Coal
Natural gas
Renewable
Nuclear
Oil and other
ProjectionsHistory 2009
25%
1%
43%
14%
17%
The Reference case electricity mix in AEO2011 gradually shifts to lower-carbon
options, with generation from natural gas rising 40% and renewables rising 75%
16
electricity net generation
trillion kilowatthours per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
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Updated electric power plant capital costs show increases for
nuclear, coal, and wind, while solar costs decline
17
overnight capital cost2009 dollars per kilowatt
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Natural GasCC
PulverizedCoal
IGCCCCS
Nuclear Wind Biomass SolarThermal
Photovoltaic
AEO 2010 AEO 2011
+ 1%
+ 25%
+ 39% + 37%
+ 21%
- 2%
- 10%
- 25%
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
ProjectionsHistory 2009
Non-hydro renewable sources grow nearly three-fold, meeting
22% of projected electricity generation growth
18
non-hydropower renewable generation
billion kilowatthours per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
Wind
Solar
Biomass
Geothermal
Waste
Industrial CHP
Power sector
Advanced biofuels
cogeneration
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Natural gas, wind and other renewables account for the vast
majority of capacity additions from 2009 to 2035
19
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
Coal313 (30%)
Natural gas351 (34%)
Hydropower*99 (10%)
Nuclear101 (10%)
Otherrenewables
15 (1%)
Other fossil118 (11%)
* Includes pumped storage
Coal14 (6%)
Natural gas
135 (60%)
Hydropower*3 (1%)
Nuclear6 (3%)
Other renewables28 (12%)
Otherfossil
1 (0.4%)
2009 capacity Capacity additions 2009 to2035
1,033gigawatts
223gigawatts
Wind25 (11%)
Wind32 (3%)
End-use coal
4 (0.3%)
End-use coal12 (5%)
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Natural Gas
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Over the last decade, U.S. shale gas production has increased 14-
fold and now comprises about 22 percent of total U.S. production
21
annual shale gas production
trillion cubic feet
Sources: EIA, Lippman Consulting
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Eagle Ford (TX)
Marcellus (PA and Other Eastern states)
Haynesville (LA and TX)
Woodford (OK)
Fayetteville (AR)Barnett (TX)
Antrim (MI, IN, and OH)
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Shale gas has been the primary source of recent growth in U.S.
technically recoverable natural gas resources
22
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
U.S. dry gas resources
trillion cubic feet
*Alaska resource estimates prior to AEO2009 reflect resources from the North Slope that were not included in previously publisheddocumentation.
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
2543
245
827
1472
Unproved shale gas
Unproved other gas (including Alaska* and offshore)
Proved reserves (all types and locations)
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30% domestic gas production growth outpaces 16%
consumption growth, leading to declining imports
23
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
U.S. dry gas
trillion cubic feet per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
ProjectionsHistory 2009
Consumption
Domestic supply
AEO2011 Reference case
AEO2010Reference case
Net imports 11%
1%
6%
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2%
Shale gas offsets declines in other U.S. supply to meet
consumption growth and lower import needs
24
U.S. dry gas
trillion cubic feet per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
Non-associated offshore
ProjectionsHistory
Associated with oil
Coalbed methane
Net imports
Non-associated onshore
Shale gas
2009
11%
1%
9% 7%
9%9%
20%14%
8%
8%
6%
46%
Alaska 1%
Tight gas28% 22%
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Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed; industrial and
electric power use drives future demand growth
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
U.S. dry gas consumption
trillion cubic feet per year
*Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel. **Includes pipeline fuel.
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
ProjectionsHistory 2009
Industrial*
Central electric power
Commercial
Residential Transportation**
35%
18%
14%
30%
3%
32%
21%
14%
30%
3%
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A number of key economic and market drivers underpin natural
gas consumption growth
26
Sector TCF Gas
Consumption
Growth
(2009 2035)
Key Drivers
2009 2035
Industrial,includingcombined heat-and-power
7.4 9.3 25% +215% combined heat-and powergeneration; +30% output of gasintensive industry; lower naturalgas prices
Central electricpower
6.9 7.9 14% +30% electricity consumption;lower natural gas prices; offset by+75% renewable generation and+26% coal generation
Commercial 3.1 3.8 23% +37% commercial floorspace;
-4% energy intensityResidential 4.8 4.8
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Natural gas price projections are significantly lower than past
years due to an expanded shale gas resource base
27
natural gas spot price (Henry Hub)
2009 dollars per million Btu
Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011; EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2010; and EIA, An Updated AnnualEnergy Outlook 2009 Reference Case
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
ProjectionsHistory 2009
Updated AEO2009
AEO2011
AEO2010
$9/MMBtu
$7/MMBtu
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Oil and other liquid supply
28AEO2011, April 2011
Oil i i h R f i dil
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0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily;
the fullAEO2011 will include a wide range of oil prices
29
annual average price of low sulfur crude oil
real 2009 dollars per barrel
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
ProjectionsHistory 2009
High Oil Price
Low Oil Price
AEO2011 Reference
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Unconventional sources more than triple globally, but
conventional petroleum continues to comprise the vast majority
of liquids supply
30
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
global liquids production
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
ProjectionsHistory 2009
OPEC conventional
Non-OPEC conventional
Unconventional12%
47%
40%
39%
5%
56%
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U S i t f li id f l f ll d t i d d ti
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U.S. imports of liquid fuels fall due to increased domestic
production including biofuels and greater fuel efficiency
31
U.S. liquid fuels consumption
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
ProjectionsHistory
Natural gas plant liquids
Petroleum supply
Biofuels including imports
Net petroleum imports
2009
13%
11%
41%
32%
10%
52%
34%
4%
Liquids from coal 3%
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Bi f l t l li id d d il d ti k
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Biofuels, natural gas liquids, and crude oil production are key
sources of increased domestic liquids supply
32
U.S. liquid fuels
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
2009
2035
Net product imports
Net crude oil imports
Natural gas plant liquids
Liquids from coalGulf of Mexico
Crude oil production
Biofuels (including net imports)
Refinery processing gain
Total consumption
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Bi f l f ll h t f th l i 2022 b t d th 36 billi
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2009 2022 2035
Other Advanced
Biofuels fall short of the goal in 2022, but exceed the 36 billion
gallon RFS target by 2031
33
billions ethanol-equivalent gallons
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
Legislated RFS in 2022
RFS withadjustments under
CAA Sec.211(o)(7)
Biodiesel
Net imports
Cellulosic biofuels
Corn ethanol
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Ne light d t ehicle f el econom achie es almost 38 mpg
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
New light duty vehicle fuel economy achieves almost 38 mpg
by 2035 in the Reference case
34
miles per gallon
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
2009 ProjectionsHistory
Summary of standards
2012-2016: 34.1 mpg CAFE average (based on NHTSAvehicle footprint sales distribution)
2020: 35 mpg by statute
2017-2025: Reference case does notinclude proposalplanned for September 2011
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0
4
8
12
16
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Most transport fuel growth is in light and heavy duty vehicles
35
U.S. transportation energy consumption
million barrels per day oil equivalent
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
Rail
Air
ProjectionsHistory
Heavy-duty vehicles
Light-duty vehicles
Marine
2009
4%
67%
2%
10%
16%
64%
20%
9%
4%2%
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Efficiency improvements partially offset underlying drivers of
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Efficiency improvements partially offset underlying drivers of
growth in transportation services
36
* Equal to a 25% reduction in fuel use per mile. ** Equal to an 8% reduction in fuel use per mile.
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
2009 2035Growth
(2009-2035)
Light duty vehicles
Fuel consumption (million barrels per day oil equivalent) 8.9 10.2 14%
Number of licensed drivers (millions) 207 265 28%
Miles per licensed driver 13,100 15,300 17%
Efficiency of vehicle stock (mpg) 20.8 27.9 34%*
Heavy duty vehicles
Fuel consumption (million barrels per day oil equivalent) 2.2 3.2 47%
Manufacturing output (billion 2005 dollars) 4,197 6,770 61%
Number of freight trucks (millions) 8.7 16.6 90%
Miles per vehicle 23,700 20,200 -15%Efficiency of vehicle stock (mpg) 6.1 6.6 9%**
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Unconventional vehicles meet over 40% of U S light duty
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Unconventional vehicles meet over 40% of U.S. light-duty
vehicle sales in 2035
37
U.S. light car and truck salesmillions
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
0
5
10
15
20
2000 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Conventional gasoline
DieselGaseous and fuel cell
Mild hybrid electric
Hybrid electric
Plug-in hybrid and all-electric
E85 flex fuel
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For more information
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer