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——
MDI-——
21
16
MDI
MSCI
10 800 6
352 80 2011-2015
700 2016 575.5
2016 33% 26%
23% 10% 5%2016
43% 26% 22%
9%
1990 20
PE 10-20 PB 2-3 ROE 15%ROIC 11%
4%
60 5
40 MDI PE 10-30 PB 3-5 ROE
30%ROIC 17% 2010
2016 63.5 80% 4
40 PE 10 PE
28% MDI
40
20 50% MDI
2002-2016 PE 15 2009 282011
82016 PE 20 PB 2-3 ROE 15%
ROIC 11% 4%
60
5 40 2012-2016
PE 24 2007 472008 10
PE 10 PE
2017H1 4.75 70.15%
BC MDI
1. ........................................................................ 6
6 ................................................ 7
7 ...................................................................................... 7
8 ............................................................................................. 8
9 ................................................................................... 9
13 ........................................................................ 12
15 ........................................................................... 14
22% ................................................................... 16
23 ............................................... 16
24 ............................................................................................. 20
25 ........................................................................ 21
26 ........................................................................... 21
27 ................................................................................................ 22
28 ................................................................................................ 22
29 ...................................................................................... 23
30 ................................................................................................ 23
MSCI 2017 A MSCI
222 A , 6
BASF
10
800
57
86 6 Verbund
18% 11%
11% 17% 29%
Bloomberg
2011 2015 700 2016
575.5 2016
33% 26% 23% 10%
5%
Bloomberg
2015 2016
43.2 40.8 2016 31.8%
7%
40%
18%
11%
17%
5%
-
80 2016 43%
26%
22% 9%
45% 25% 21%
9%
1.2
1.2.1
37%43% 20%
9 10
Bloomberg
1
6 6.6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
25
30.5
152.5
38.5
54.5
36
101
15
67.5
92
MDI 24 48 2017
Freeport,Texas
75 2017
Korla,China
10 2016
112016 12
Bloomberg
150
227.5 /
4
,,,,,
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
4
3
n/a
21.5
Kuantan,Malaysia 2017
13 14
Bloomberg
2010 2016 12%
2016 187.3
GimcheonSouth Korea Ultraform® 2018
HanoiVietnam 2016
KolkataIndia 2016
RayongThailand 2018
Cellasto® 2016
33%
13%
17%
37%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
TotsukaJapan 2016
15 16
Bloomberg
55 2016
55.7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
PE 10-30 PB 3-5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
North Sea,Norway
Edvard Grieg 5 BOE 2015/2018
Aasta Hansteen 1.2 BOE 2018
Siberia,Russia 4.3 BOE 2008/2020
Bloombergwind Bloombergwind
ROE 15% ROIC 11%
ROE 30%ROIC 17%
4% 3%
0 5
ROE ROE
60
5 40
30
80% 4 40
3.
1945-1964 1965-——
,GDP 8% 0.2%,,
1929
,
,,
1996 1993
90 Kali und Salz GmbH 2011
10% 1997 2016
BASF 43.66(9) 322.6(1) 331.2(1) 506.3(1) 846.5(1) 765.5(1)
Du Pont 155.71(1) 421.4(5) 318.3(2) 266.4(6)
315.1(10) 251.3(9)
Bayer 23.28(20) 311.1(4) 285.3(5) 324.3(4)
239.8(12) 100
, ,
Wintershall
——Wintershall
2006 4
35%
, “VERBUND”
, “VERBUND”
Ludwigshafen
2005 2.2 16
100
40
25
UP THFpolyTHF Sandoz AG Ecoflex
F500 Fipronil 18
Ciba 30TDI Statoil
1990-2000
2001-2007
2008
2000
3000 2012 2016
PBTElastollan®TPUCellasto®
PVP
polyTHF®TDIMDI
Basonat®
20151885
“”
2005-2014 2012
1990-2000 1995
6
2-
300 52
2011
MDI 40 80 8.6
5
1990 -
1994
1995
13 Brio
1997 Targor
2000
2002
2006
10
6
2010
30
14
16A 17E 18E 19E 16A 17E 18E 19E
600309 994 27.34 35.76 1.35 3.28 3.52 4.37 27 11 10 8
002470 255 31.50 8.19 0.32 0.40 0.46 0.54 25 20 17 15
601966 239 12.00 19.37 0.84 1.08 1.35 1.72 24 18 15 12
wind eps wind
15
16A 17E 18E 19E 16A 17E 18E 19E
BAS GY Equity 756.57 9.19 82.37 4.44 5.81 5.89 19.98 14.21 14.02
Bloomberg
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021-23297233 18930809233 [email protected] 6 Buy
Outperform
(Neutral)
(Underperform)
20
520
(Neutral)
(Underweight)
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