desenvimento sustentável no mercado de carbono

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Desenvolvimento Sustentável eOportunidades de carbono para o Brasil

Centro Brasileiro e britânico, São Paulo17 e 18 de agosto de 2006

5º Painel “Situação Atual dos projetos de MDL

(Mecanismo de Desenvolvimento Limpo) no Brasil e no Mundo

Marco Antonio Fujihara



Tendências do Sistema Energético Primário

segundo a OECD



The context for the Kyoto Commitment

Period (2008-2012) – EU-15 will require ~180-

200 MtCO2/yr by 2010

– Japan will require 170MtCO2/yr; Canada ~ 140MtCO2/yr

– Who ultimately pays for

Kyoto? – Inter-relation between

different carbon ‘currencies’(AAUs, ERUs, CERs)during 2008-12

Actual and projected EU-15 emissions compared to the Kyoto target for2008-12 (European Environment Agency, 2004)



Socialperformance

Environmentalperformance

Suppliermonitoring

Corporate governance

Health& Safety

Ethicalperformance

Health& Safety

Sustentabilidade



Sustentabilidade e MDL

MDLMDL S u

s t e n

t a b i l i d

a d e

O MDL não é um instrumento (conceito) isolado, eleestá inserido num contexto amplo, chamado

“Sustentabilidade”.O resultado dessa inserção é agregação de valor emitigação de risco dos CER.

Artigo 12 doProtocolo de Kyoto

E não OU



Number of CDM projects in Latin

America by country

Brazil49%

Mexico

18%

Chile

7%

Honduras

5%

Ecuador

3%

Argentina

3%

Others

15%



Volume de CERs na América Latina

Volume of CERs until 2012 in Latin America

by country

Brazil

51%Chile

9%

Honduras

1%

Ecuador

1%

Argentina

9%

Mexico17%

Others

12%

Table 1:

Latin America Number kCER2012

Brazil 49% 50%

Mexico 18% 17%

Chile 7% 9%

Honduras 5% 1%Ecuador 3% 1%

Argentina 3% 9%

Others 15% 12%

Colombia 2% 2%

Guatemala 3% 2%

Peru 2% 3%

El Salvador 1% 1%Panama 1% 0%

Bolivia 1% 1%

Costa Rica 1% 1%

Nicaragua 1% 1%

Uruguay 1% 1%

Dominican Republic 1% 0%

Jamaica 0% 0%Total 365 290628



Tendências de Novos Projetos na

América Latina

New project in Latin America in the pipeline

each quarter

0

20

40

60

80

100

Q 1 - 0 4

Q 2 - 0 4

Q 3 - 0 4

Q 4 - 0 4

Q 1 - 0 5

Q 2 - 0 5

Q 3 - 0 5

Q 4 - 0 5

Q 1 - 0 6

Q 2 - 0 6

P

r o j e

c t s Latin America

Brazil

Mexico



Number of CDM projects in Asia by

country

Philippines

4%

Malaysia

3%

South Korea

3%

Indonesia

2%

Thailand

2%

Others4%

India61%

China

21%



Volume of CERs until 2012 in Asia by

country

S o u th K o re a

1 2 %

Ma la ysia

2 %

P h ilip p in e s

0%

1 %

Oth e rs

3 %

T h a ila n d

1 %

C h in a

5 0%

In d ia

3 1 %

Table 3:

Asia & Pacific DC Number kCER2012

India 62% 31%

China 21% 51%

Philippines 4% 0%Malaysia 3% 2%

South Korea 3% 12%

Thailand 2% 1%

Indonesia 2% 1%

Others 4% 3%

Sri Lanka 1% 0%

Vietnam 1% 1%Bangladesh 1% 0%

Nepal 0% 0%

Bhutan 0% 0%

Cambodia 0% 0%

Fiji 0% 0%

Lao PDR 0% 0%

Mongolia 0% 0%Pakistan 0% 1%

Papua New Guinea 0% 0%

Total 585 782563

Volumes de CERs na Ásia



New project in Asia in the pipeline each quarter

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q 1 - 0 4

Q 2 - 0 4

Q 3 - 0 4

Q 4 - 0 4

Q 1 - 0 5

Q 2 - 0 5

Q 3 - 0 5

Q 4 - 0 5

Q 1 - 0 6

Q 2 - 0 6

P r o j e c t s Asia & Pacific DC

India

China

Tendências de Novos Projetos na Ásia



Numero de Projetos

All CDM Projects in the Pipeline in

Brazil + Mexico + India + China

as a fraction of all projects

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Q 1 - 0 4

Q 2 - 0 4

Q 3 - 0 4

Q 4 - 0 4

Q 1 - 0 5

Q 2 - 0 5

Q 3 - 0 5

Q 4 - 0 5

Q 1 - 0 6

Q 2 - 0 6

P r o

j e c t s



CDM Pipeline in Agosto de 2006

100%1137340169667100%990World

1.7%1885829981.3%13North Africa & Middle-East

3.7%4231971121.7%17Sub-Sahara Africa

0.3%29734681.0%10Europe and Central Asia

68.8%78256311673259.1%585Asia & Pacific DC

25.6%2906284235736.9%365Latin America

2012 kCERskCERsNumberTotal in the CDM Pipeline



Compradores em Agosto de 2006B u y e r s

C D M J IA u s t r ia 1 6 1 0

B e lg iu m 1

C a n a d a 1 4

D e n m a r k 1 1 2 0

F in la n d 1 1 4

F r a n c e 5

G e r m a n y 7 2

G r e e c eI c e l a n d

I r e la n d 2 1

I ta ly 1 8

J a p a n 6 6 2

L u x e m b o u r g

N e th e r la n d s 6 2 3 4

N e w Z e a l a n d

N o r w a y

P o r t u g a l

S p a in 2 5

S w e d e n 6 2

S w it z e r la n d 6

U n ite d K . 1 2 4 1

C D C F 5

W B C F 5 1 8

N E F C O 4

n .a . 6 4 7 2 0

T o ta l 1 0 3 0 1 1 9

N o t e : In s o m e p r o j e c t m o r e t h a n o n e in v e s t o r c o u n t ry p a r t ic i p a t e .

N u m b e r o f p r o j e c t s

C re d itin g p e riod fo r C D M pro je c ts n u m b e r (% )

7 ye a rs 7 3%1 0 ye a rs 2 7%

Período de Credito considerado



Tipologia de Projetos CDM em Agosto de 2006

Type

Biomass energy 213 22% 11902 7% 86120 8% 618 6%

Hydro 169 17% 10218 6% 65929 6% 462 4%

EE Industry 125 13% 13156 8% 91855 8% 128 1%

Wind 123 12% 10748 6% 71388 6% 0 0%

Agriculture 110 11% 4768 3% 34185 3% 995 9%

Landfill gas 80 8% 19524 12% 132252 12% 73 1%

Fossil fuel switch 40 4% 2449 1% 18633 2% 0 0%

Biogas 38 4% 1724 1% 12870 1% 85 1%Cement 22 2% 2832 2% 25542 2% 0 0%

HFCs 14 1% 62432 37% 410644 36% 8480 78%

EE Service 10 1% 1873 1% 12873 1% 0 0%

Fugitive 7 1% 5571 3% 37419 3% 0 0%

Solar 7 1% 185 0% 1151 0% 0 0%

Coal bed/mine methane 7 1% 59 0% 541 0% 0 0%

Geothermal 6 1% 1545 1% 9817 1% 0 0%

N2O 6 1% 19292 11% 118345 10% 0 0%

EE Households 4 0% 87 0% 510 0% 0 0%

Afforestation & Reforestation 3 0% 418 0% 2327 0% 0 0%

Transport 2 0% 271 0% 1785 0% 0 0%

Energy distrib. 2 0% 209 0% 1509 0% 0 0%

PFCs 1 0% 86 0% 542 0% 0 0%

Tidal 1 0% 315 0% 1104 0% 0 0%

Total 990 100% 169667 100% 1137340 99% 10842 100%

HFC & N2O reduction 21 2% 81810 48% 529531 47% 8480 78%

CH4 reduction & Cement & Coal mine/bed 226 23% 32756 19% 229939 20% 1068 10%

Renewables 557 56% 36637 22% 248379 22% 1165 11%Energy efficiency 143 14% 15597 9% 108531 10% 128 1%

Fuel switch 40 4% 2449 1% 18633 2% 0 0%

Afforestation & Reforestation 3 0% 418 0% 2327 0% 0 0%

CERs Issued (000)CDM

number CERs/yr (000) Accumul. 2012 CERs (000)



N um be r (%) o f C D M pr o j e c ts in e a c h s e c to r

R e n e w a b l e s

5 7 %

H F C & N 2 O

re d u c t i o n

2 %F u e l s w i tc h

4 %

E n e r g ye f f i c iency

1 4 %

Affo re s ta t ion &

R e f o re s t a t i o n

0 % C H 4 r e d u c ti o n

& C e m e n t &C o a l

m in e /b e d

2 3 %

CERs until 2012 from CDM projects in each sector

HFC & N2O

reduction

46%

Renew ables

22%

Energy

efficiency

10%

Fuel sw itch

2%

CH4 reduction &

Cement & Coalmine/bed

20%

Af forestation &

Reforestation

0%

Total de CDM por Setor



Tendência de CDM por tipologia

Percentage share of the total number of projects of 3 largest CDMcategories

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Q 1 - 0 4

Q 2 - 0 4

Q 3 - 0 4

Q 4 - 0 4

Q 1 - 0 5

Q 2 - 0 5

Q 3 - 0 5

Q 4 - 0 5

Q 1 - 0 6

Q 2 - 0 6

Renewables

CH4 reduction & Cement & Coal

mine/bed

Energy Efficiency



Fontes de Informação desta apresentação

• Source :Jørgen Fenhann, UNEP Risø

Centre 09-08-06, [email protected]• tabulação de Marco Antonio Fujihara,

[email protected]



24

Emissions reductionsand the potential role for the financial industry

In-house Offset Projects• Joint Implementation• Clean Development

Mechanism

Emissions Trading

Direct Reductions Indirect Reductions

Available Emission Reduction strategies for corporations

Financial industry opportunities and risks

• Venture Capital• GHG Portfolio

Risks

Investments Funds Insurance/ART Derivatives Project Finance

• Diversification• Kyoto Hedge

• New Products• New Exposures

•Futures•Options•Weather

• New projectrevenue stream



Muito ObrigadoMarco Antonio Fujihara

Instituto Totum de Desenvolvimento Empresarial

[email protected]

Phone : 011 33 72 95 72

desenvimento sustentável no mercado de carbono

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