cadernos fgv projetos nº 1 - energia & petróleo

7/30/2019 Cadernos FGV Projetos n 1 - Energia & Petrleo

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AMASEKN&ZAYSHAD > WAYABCSD 3::0

AMASEKN&ZAYSHADG NIASMDW@EP ZSDFAYDWx NMD> x M > x WAYABCSD3::0

AMYSAPKWYN Fdw Wsekd EncskahhkZsawkiamya in Zaysdcsnw

N SYKEDW AGDBAMYSKDWIazamimgkn a ikpaswk`kgndmd `dsmagkbamyd ia ew mnyqsnhMdpd bnsgd saeqhnyskd znsn n kmiwysknid ew mnyqsnh6 was magawwskn

nzsdpnd ia mdpn haekwhnd4

Gqwyd ia gnzkynh znsn a|znmwdin d`asyn ia amasekn ahyskgnDwsd{nhykawa dw bqmkgzkdw inCngkn ia GnbzdwN gdmyn id Ckdikawah

N iabnmin ia amasekn ab 3:>1


2/28

AMASEKN&ZAYSHAD 3 WAYABCSD 3::0


3/28


Zqchkgnd zaskikgn id Mghad ia Amasekn a Zayshad in @EP Zsdfaydw-Dw nsykedw wd ia sawzdmwnckhkinia idw nqydsaw a md sa`hayab( magawwnsknbamya(n dzkmkd in @EP-

@EP ZsdfaydwIksayds A|agqykpd6 Gawns Gqmln GnbzdwIksayds Ygmkgd6 Skgnsid WkbdmwamIksayds ia Gdmysdha6 Nmymkd Gnshdw Nkins

Aikyds Glaà6 Skgnsid WkbdmwamAikyds A|agqykpd6 Aqemkd BdmydsdZsdiqd Es`kgn6 Bnsgahd Nhy Fdsmnhkwyn Sawzdmwpah6 @asmnmin Cqsfnyd " BYC 7>>5 " GAZ 33315";5:( Yah-6 ,3>+ 311;"0:::( uuu-èp-cs

Zskbaksd Zsawkiamya @qminids6 Hqkv Wkbaw HdzawZsawkiamya6 Gnshdw Kpnm Wkbdmwam Hanh

Pkga"Zsawkiamyaw6 @snmgkwgd Dwunhid Mapaw Idsmahhaw( Bnsgdw Gkmysn Gnpnhgnmyaia Nhcq~qas~qa a Wsekd @snmohkm qkmyahhn

Gdmwahld Iksayds6

Zsawkiamya6 Gnshdw Kpnm Wkbdmwam Hanh

Pkga"Zsawkiamyaw6 @snmgkwgd Dwunhid Mapaw Idsmahhaw( Bnsgdw Gkmysn Gnpnhgnmyaia Nhcq~qas~qa a Wsekd @snmohkm qkmyahhn

Pdenkw6 Nsbnmid Ohnckm( Gnshdw Nhcasyd Zksaw ia Gnspnhld a Nhcq~qas~qa( AsmnmaEnhpnw( Fdw Hqkv Bksnmin( Hkmidhzld ia Gnspnhld Iknw( Bnmdah Zkd Gdssan Fmkds(Bnsghkd Bns~qaw Bdsaksn a Sdcasyd Znqhd Gwns ia Nmisnia

Wqzhamyaw6 Nh`said Nbskgd ia Wdqvn Snmeah( Nmymkd Bdmyaksd ia Gnwysd @khld(

Gskwyknmd Cqns~qa @snmgd Mayd( Aiqnsid Cnzykwyn Pknmmn( @hk| Iacqhlaw( FngdcZnhkw Fmkds( Fdw Asbskd ia Bdsnaw Mayd( Fdw Fmkds ia Nhbakin Wammn aMawyds Fdwy

Gdmwahld gqsnids6

Zsawkiamya6 Gnshdw Nhcasyd Hamav Gwns Zsdywkd

Pkga"Zsawkiamya6 Zaisd Fdw in Bnyyn Bnglnid ,Ohnckm Ksbdw & Gkn+

Pdenkw6 Nha|nmisa Odgl Ydssaw ia Nwwkw( Gnshdw Nhcasyd Pkaksn ,@aiasndCsnwkhaksn ia Cnmgdw+( Gnshdw Bdngks Edbaw ia Nhbakin( Idbkmedw Cqhdw ,UlkyaBnsykmw a Enwaw Kmiqwysknkw Hyin-+( Aibqmid Zammn Cnscdwn( Asnhid Ykmdgd Bahd,Awynid in Cnlkn+( Lakyds Glnenw ia Dhkpaksn( Fdsea Easinq Fdlnmmzayas ,EasinqW-N+( Hvnid ia Bahhd Csnmid ,Cnmgd Csniawgd W-N+( Hqkv Nzzdhdmkd Mayd,Kmwykyqyd ia Sawwaeqsdw id Csnwkh KSC+( Hqkv Glds ,Gldvkh Ameamlnskn Hyin-+(Hqkv Aiqnsid Nhpaw ia Nwwkw ,Cnmgd GG@ Csnwkh W-N+( Hqkv Ynpnsaw Zasaksn @khld,Wkmikgnyd inw Abzsawnw ia Waeqsdw Zskpnidw( ia Gnzkynhkvnd a ia Sawwaeqsdw

md Awynid id Skd ia Fnmaksd+( Bnsgahd Was`ny{( Bsgkd Fdd ia Nmisnia @dsya(Bnqsd Wnhhaw ,Zqchkgkw Wnhhaw Mdsydm+( Mkgnmisd Iqsnmya ,Wdqvn Gsqv W-N+( WsekdSkcaksd in Gdwyn Uashnme

Wqzhamyaw6 Nhvksn Nhpaw ia Ncsaq( Ekhcasyd Iqnsya Zsnid( Fdd Zaisd Edqpakn Pkaksn @khld ,Sa`kmnskn ia Zayshad Kzksnmen W-N+( Hqkv Sdcasyd Mnwgkbamyd Wkhpn(Bnsgahd Fdw Cnwhkd ia Wdqvn Bnskmld ,Csnwgnm Csnwkh Hyin-+( Ma{ Gda ia Dhkpaksn(Mkhwdm Yak|aksn ,Cnmgd ia Kmpawykbamyd Gsaiky Wqkwwa W-N+( Znyskgo ia HnssnedkykHqgnw ,Wqh Nbskgn Gdbznmlkn Mngkdmnh ia Waeqsdw+( Znqhd Bskd @saksa ,QmkpaswnhGdbsgkd a Abzsaamikbamydw Hyin-+( Zaisd Lamsk~qa Bnsknma Ckyyamgdqsy ,CnmgdCCB W-N+( Sqk Cnssayd ,Gn` Wdhpah Csnwhkn W-N+( Ykyyd Cdyahld Bnsykmw ,OBBkmasnd a Baynhqsekn W-N+

Gdmwahld Gdmwqhykpd6 Gawns Gqmln Gnbzdw( Inmkah Inmynw( Ahkavas Cnzykwyn(Awynid ia Bkmnw Easnkw( @asmnmid Zassdma( Easnhid Fdw Gnscdma( Hqkv @asmnmidin Wkhpn Zkmyd a Sdcasyd Eqwbd-

AMASEKN&ZAYSHAD

AIKYDSKNH-------------------------------AMYSAPKWYN------------------------------

Fdw Wsekd EncskahhkZsawkiamya in Zaysdcsnw

NSYKEDW A GDBAMYSKDW--------------- 0

Iazamimgkn a ikpaswk`kgnd md`dsmagkbamyd ia ew mnyqsnh

Mdpd bnsgd saeqhnyskd znsn n kmiwyid ew mnyqsnh6 was magawwskn nzsdia mdpn haekwhnd4

Gqwyd ia gnzkynh znsn a|znmwdin dàsyn ia amasekn ahyskgn

Dwsd{nhykaw a dw bqmkgzkdwin Cngkn ia Gnbzdw

N gdmyn id Ckdikawah

N iabnmin ia amasekn ab 3:>1

I AWYN^QAS AEQHNYSKD--------------39

GDMFQMYQSNW A ZSDFAAW-----------31


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N amasekn qb wayds awysnyekgdznsn n agdmdbkn csnwkhaksn-Saàsmgkn ia amwkmd md Znw a mda|yaskds( n @qmind Eayqhkd Pnsenwysncnhln( l bnkw ia 0: nmdw( gdb n bkwwdia gdmyskcqks znsn d iawampdhpkbamydmngkdmnh a( nwwkb( md zdiaskn znwwns ndhnsed iawwn wkemk`kgnykpn ikwgqwwd-

Dw zsdesnbnw ia esniqnd( bawysnid(idqydsnid a ysncnhldw ia gdmwqhydsknysnmw`dsbnsnb n @EP ab qb gamysd iaa|gahmgkn ngnibkgn( nysnpw in kmyamwnzsdiqd kmyahagyqnh- Awynbdw( nedsn(iawykmnmid znsya ia mdwwdw aw`dsdw znsnawwn san ~qa ysnyn ia zsdchabnw ~qanàynb( md wdbamya nd Csnwkh( bnw n ydinn gdbqmkinia kmyasmngkdmnh-

Bqkydw ia mdwwdw zsdàwwdsaw a gdmwqhydsawawyd ab cqwgn ia wdhqaw ~qa pknckhkvab(ia `dsbn waeqsn a gdmgsayn( n a|zhdsndkmyahkeamya ia mdwwdw sagqswdw mnyqsnkw aamaseykgdw- W nwwkb zdiasabdwzsdbdpas d gsawgkbamyd agdmbkgdmngkdmnh- Ab >;;5( d wayds ia zayshad aew asn sawzdmwpah zds 3(5! id ZKCcsnwkhaksd- Ldfa( f sawzdmia zds ;(>!- Ngskwa ia amasekn ~qa dgdssaq ab 3::> mdwnhasydq znsn n kbzdsymgkn idzhnmafnbamyd a ia gdmwynmyaw iacnyawwdcsa d yabn- Ab 3::0( n Zaysdcsnwnmqmgkdq n yd neqnsinin nqyd"wq`kgkmgkna( gdb n nyqnh ncasyqsn id wayds ia

zayshad( 19 mdpnw abzsawnw amysnsnb mdbasgnid a znwwnsnb n easns bnkwdzdsyqmkiniaw ia ysncnhld-

Mdwwn san ia gdmwqhydskn( n @E n sawzdmwpah zds bnkw awyn zq~qa ysnv awynbznin n gsaikckhkiniakmwykyqkd( casd ia zsawkiamabzsawnw( bkmkwysdw ia awynid( iknqydskiniaw edpasmnbamynkw- Nysns amysapkwynw( gdb kbzdsikskeamyaw id wayds zchkgd a zsahngkdmninw amasekn a zay^qawyaw hkeninw saeqhnd( ha`dsmagkbamyd( a|ysnd( zsdiqgdmwqbd( zsdfaaw a nhyasmnyamasekn wasd znqyn ia awyqidw a ia samdbnidw zsdàwwdsaw a gdmw~qa gdmyskcqksd gdb wqn pnwyn gnygmkgd"gkamy`kgn znsn awwn ik

kbzdsynmya sawwnhyns ~qa dgdbzsdbkwwd iawyn zqchkgnd ydinw nw nykpkiniaw in @EP a kmiazamimgkn a n zhqsnhkinia ia ia pkwyn-

Awzasnbdw ~qa n zqchkgnd AmZayshad zdwwn was qbn wkemkgdmyskcqkd in @EP Zsdfaydw znsna znsn d wayds md Csnwkh-

@qmind Eayqhkd Pnsenw6a|gahmgkn( gsaikckhkinia a kmd

AIKYDSKNH

Wasekd @snmohkm ^qkmyahhnPkga"Zsawkiamya in @qmind Eayqhkd Pnsenw

Bqkydw ia mdwwdw zsdàwwdsaw a gdmwqhydsawawyd ab cqwgn ia wdhqaw ~qa pknckhkvab(ia `dsbn waeqsn agdmgsayn( n a|zhdsndkmyahkeamya ia mdwwdwsagqswdw mnyqsnkw aamaseykgdw-

Ia znsykgqhns sahapmgkn znsn d Skd iaFnmaksd( d wayds zaysdhàsd iawkemn bnkwia 3:! id ZKC awyniqnh pknsd{nhykawaznsykgkznaw awzagknkw a sazsawamynsamdsba bqinmn mn awysqyqsn agdmbkgnid awynid- Ia nyd( gdb n gamysnh ia sa`kmda zaysd~qbkgn ~qa awy zsapkwyn znsnKyncdsn $ Wd Edmnhd( d Awynid id Skdmagawwkyns ia ameamlaksdw( agdmdbkwynw(nibkmkwysnidsaw ia abzsawnw( nipdenidwa dzasskdw awzagknhkvnidw znsn nw qmkiniawia waeqmin a yasgaksn easnd ~qa nhk wasdkmwynhninw- N @EP awy zsaznsnin znsnnzdkns( nysnpw inw wqnw qmkiniaw iaamwkmd( zaw~qkwn a gdmwqhydskn( awya mdpdZhd Zaysd~qbkgd-

Wasekd @- ^qkmyahhnPkga"Zsawkiamya

@qmind Eayqhkd Pnsenw


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N Zaysdcsnw( ~qa gdbzhayns 17 nmdwia nykpkiniaw md zs|kbd bw iadqyqcsd( ldfa qbn saàsmgknbqmiknh ab yasbdw ia zsdwzagd ab eqnwzsd`qminw a nzsawamyn qb idw bahldsawiawabzamldw id wayds- Gdb sagakyn h~qkinia S) >70( 0 ckhlaw( hqgsd h~qkid ia ~qnwaS) 39 ckhlaw ,cnhnmd ia 3::1+ a zhnmd iakmpawykbamydw wqzaskds n QW) : nmdw( qb bkhld iazsd`kwwkdmnkw ~qa gdmwkiasab nw ~qawyaw wdgkd"nbckamynkw gdbd znsya idw waqw maegkdw- `samya ia ydid awwa gnzkynh lqbnmd(yagmdhdekn ia zdmyn a gk`snw kbzsaw"wkdmnmyaw( awy qb cnknmd ia 11 nmdw(

wkbzykgd a bdiawyd- Fdw Wsekd Encskahhknkmin `nv ~qawyd ia sawwnhyns nysnmwkydskainia ia wqn gdmikd- Awydqzsawkiamya in Zaysdcsnw( zdkw wdq zsdàwwds(sawwnhyn- Agdmdbkwyn `dsbnid zahnQmkpaswkinia @aiasnh in Cnlkn( dmia àvbawysnid( a idqyds ab agdmdbkn zahnCdwydm Qmkpaswky{( Encskahhk dgqzn d gnsediawia fqhld ia 3::1( iazdkw ia zdqgd bnkwia idkw nmdw gdbd iksayds kmnmgaksd- Iawiaamyd( yab ysncnhlnid dcwykmninbamya znsngdmwdhkins awyn zdwkd ia hkiasnmn a

gdmwysqks nw cnwaw znsn qb zsdgawwd iagsawgkbamyd wqwyamynid znsn dw zs|kbdwiav nmdw- Zdkw dk awya a|agqykpd( idmd ia qbn neaminia bqkydw gdbzsdbkwwdw( ~qa sagacaq na~qkza in @EP Zsdfaydw( znsn qbn amysapkwyn

a|ghqwkpn( mdw mdpdw a bdiasmdw awgskyskdwin abzsawn ab Wd Znqhd( mn wa|yn"àksn(ikn 3> ia fqhld( bawbd ikn ab ~qanzsawamydq d Zhnmd ia Maegkdw 3::5 3:>> in Zaysdcsnw( znsn abzsawskdw mnwaia in @KAWZ- Md amgdmysd( `dk zdwwpahgdbzsdpns d idbmkd ~qa Encskahhk yabwdcsa dw nwwqmydw ygmkgdw( n hqgkiav znsnkmyaszsayns d gamskd gdmfqmyqsnh a wqnwzdwwpakw apdhqaw( n pkwd ghnsn agdmwkwyamya znsn kmyasneks gdb d `qyqsd ~qa f znsya zdsyn-

@EP Zsdfaydw6 N Zaysdcsnw yab ia`kmkin ab wqn Bkwwd n iayasbkmnd zahn kmyasmn"gkdmnhkvnd- D ~qa d wamlds zdia `nhns nawya sawzakyd4

Fdw Wsekd Encskahhk6N Zaysdcsnw pkpaqpsknw aynznw mawya zsdgawwd ia kmyasmn"gkdmnhkvnd( gdbanmid gdb n~qahn ab ~qaykmln gdbd dcfaykpd nwwaeqsns `dmyaw iawqzskbamyd ia zayshad- Mawyn zskbaksn `nwa(n m`nwa awynpn ab kmpawyks mn zsdiqd iaiaskpnidw ia zayshad znsn d basgnidcsnwkhaksd( zdgn ab ~qa n abzsawn zdikn waspkwyn gdbd qbn esnmia kbzdsynidsn a gdbgnzngkinia hkbkynin ia sa`kmd-

N waeqmin `nwa `dk gnsngyaskvna|znmwd kmyasmngkdmnh( zahn magikpaswk`kgnd( md w mn cqwgn bnw ynbcb gdbd zsdiqd a( awzagkbamya( gdbd zsdgqsabamy znsn n gdia bnyasknkw-

Mn wa~mgkn( n Zaysdcsnw kmkgkd~qa ngahasdq wqn gnzngkynd zsdwzagd ab eqnw zsd`qminw a znsnia had zawnid- Nhb ikwwd( `dsnb kmpawykbamydw idbwykgdw ab zazsdiqd( ny zds~qa lnpkn qbiawpkmgqhnd amysa d had zsdiqvawysqyqsn ia sa`kmd ~qa asn ikwzdm

Mn ~qnsyn `nwa( ldqpa qbn ngahasnzsdgawwd ia gdmpaswd ia sa`kmngdbadq n wa pask`kgns qbn a~qkpnin zsdiqd a id gdmwqbd( d ~qa

nzdmynpn znsn n kbkmmgkn inwq`kgkmgkn- Mawya zasdid( `dk gZasav Gdbznmg( abzsawn nseamkmyaesnin ia amasekn-

Nyqnhbamya( pkpabdw n ~qkmyn aynd `dgd ensnmyks n gdmykmqkingsawgkbamyd a n a|znmwd in zsdiqzsawamn `dsya a gsawgamya ab iksaekaw id bqmid- Mdwwdw dcfaykp3:>1 zsapab ~qa iapabdw awyzsdiqvkmid 9(0 bkhlaw ia cnsskw,gdmysn dw nyqnkw 3(9 bkhlaw ia cnd ~qa a~qkpnha zsdiqd nyqnh in Adq baynia id ~qa zsdiqv n Swwkn dNsckn Wnqikyn-

Fdw Wsekd EncskahhkZsawkiamya in Zaysdcsnw

AMYSAPKWYN

Nyqnhbamya( d `dgd ensnmyks n gdmykmqkinia idgsawgkbamyd a n a|znmwd in zsdiqd( gdb zsawamn `dsya a gsawgamya ab ikpaswnw saekaw id bqmid-

U NHIDBKSD G NSPNWFQMKDS


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@EP Zsdfaydw6 Ab ~qa saekaw id bqmid nZaysdcsnw awy ldfa a gdb ~qa ykzd ianyqnd4

Fdw Wsekd Encskahhk6 Mw awynbdwzsawamyaw ab psknw a kbzdsynmyaw sanw idbqmid( wafn zsdwzagynmid( wafn zsdiqvkmid

dq ikwyskcqkmid- Ia`kmkbdw ysw sanw gdbd`dgd ia mdwwn nyqnd kmyasmngkdmnh6 nNbskgn id Wqh( dmia zsayamiabdw sa`dsnsgnin pav bnkw mdwwn zdwkd ia hkiasnmn mnwsanw ia ew a amasekn a mn ia gdbcqwypakw,~qa md awy nkmin yd kmyaesnin+-

Dqysn san ab ~qa awynbdw zsawamyaw ddawya in `skgn( wafn zds ~qawyaw iawabahlnmn eadhekgn( wafn zds pmgqhdwawyncahagkidw l pskdw nmdw- Mawyn saekd(pkbdw `nvamid zsdwzagd ab eqnwzsd`qminw mn Mkeskn ,wdcsayqid+( ab Nmedhna bnkw sagamyabamya mn Eqkm A~qnydsknh(wdvkmldw dq gdb wgkdw-

Nkmin mn `skgn( pkbdw ysncnhlnmid md hawya(bnkw awzagk`kgnbamya mn Ynmvmkn a abBdnbck~qa( znsn n a|zhdsnd a zsdiqdia ew( ynhpav EMH( zahnw ~qnmykiniaw ~qazdiasd zasbkyks a|zdsynd- Awya ysncnhldyab ngdmyagkid ab znsgaskn gdb Glapsdm(gdb Enhz( gdb Ydynh( znsn gkyns nheqmw mdbaw-

Md Hckn a mn Yqs~qkn ,Bns Maesd+ awynbdw`nvamid kmpawykbamydw saiqvkidw ab zsdw"zagd ab san ia ahapnid skwgd a|zhdsnyskd-

A ynbcb pkbdw nyqnmid gdmwkwyamyabamyamdw Awynidw Qmkidw( ab a|zhdsnd mn saekdid Edh`d id B|kgd a ab zsdiqd iaiaskpnidw gdb n gdbzsn ia 1:! ia qbnsa`kmnskn md awynid id Ya|nw( ~qa ks zsdiqvksiaskpnidw ia zayshad( yamid gdbd bnyskn"zskbn had csnwkhaksd ,bnshkb+-

@EP Zsdfaydw6 Gdbd d wamlds ia`kma n zdwkd csnwkhaksn ab yasbdw ia yagmdhdekn

`samya n dqysdw znwaw4

Fdw Wsekd Encskahhk6Zdiabdw n`ksbns ~qaawynbdw( ab bqkydw gnwdw( nyqnmid mn`sdmyaksn yagmdhekgn- Qb cdb a|abzhd nmdwwn dzasnd md Edh`d id B|kgd( ab ~qazdwwqbdw 317 zdmydw a|zhdsnyskdw abeqnw qhysn"zsd`qminw( wdvkmldw dq abznsgaskn gdb CLZ( Wlahh a CZ( gdb d ~qa lia bnkw bdiasmd a kmdpnids- Mawyn bawbnsaekd( pkbdw gdmiqvkmid cqwgn ia zayshadab eqnw snwnw gdb zsdwzagd zsd`qmin-

Am`samynbdw( ynbcb( nheqmw mdpdw iawn`kdwmd wqh id Edh`d id B|kgd( dmia( awynbdwa|zhdsnmid ncnk|d ia mpakw fnbnkw nykmekidw(ynbcb gdb a~qkznbamydw ia pnmeqnsinyagmdhekgn( ~qa zasbkyab kmghqwkpa diawngdzhnbamyd zhnyn`dsbn$csdgn( awzagknh"bamya ykh mn~qahn saekd yd wqfakyn n

`qsngaw-@EP Zsdfaydw6 Gdb ydinw awynw `samyaw( zdia"wa ensnmyks ~qa n nyqnh zsdiqdcsnwkhaksn wafn wqwyamypah4

Fdw Wsekd Encskahhk6 Waeqsnbamya( wkb-Mdwwnw zsdfaaw ny 3:>> gdmyabzhnb qbna|znmwd id ZKC bqmiknh in dsiab ia 9(3!nn a ia gsawgkbamyd in agdmdbkn csnwkhaksnia 9! nn- Mawya bawbd zasdid( n apdhqdid basgnid csnwkhaksd ia gdbcqwypakw iapaswas in dsiab ia 7(>! nn( am~qnmyd mdwwnzsdiqd iapa nykmeks dw 5(

A znsn ensnmyks awyn bkmln zdwkd( cnwyndhlns dw kmikgnidsaw sawaspn $ zsdiqd- Ldfa(wa md nqbamynsbdw qb mkgd cnsskh iazayshad( mdwwnw sawaspnw mdw ensnmyab >;nmdw ia zsdiqd ndw mpakw nyqnkw- Ab 3:>1(gdb nw km`dsbnaw ikwzdmpakw ldfa( awyakmikgnids nzdmyn znsn >1 nmdw( d ~qa a|ysabnbamya nhyd ab yasbdw id wayds-

@EP Zsdfaydw6 ^qnh n pnhkinia awysnyekgnid enwdiqyd mn Nbskgn Hnykmn( in Pamavqahnny d a|ysabd wqh4

Fdw Wsekd Encskahhk6 Nmyaw ia sawzdmias( phkid `nhns qb zdqgd wdcsa dw enwdiqydwa|kwyamyaw mn Aqsdzn- Dw esnmiaw zsdiqydsawia ew awyd hdgnhkvnidw mn Wkcskn( md mdsyain `skgn( md Dskamya Bikd a md NyhmykgdMdsya? znsn kmyashkens awynw sanw ndwzskmgkznkw zhdw gdmwqbkidsaw a|kwyab

bkhlnsaw ia ~qkhbaysdw ia enwdiqydw(kmyashkenmid n Mdsqaen @snmn( d Aekyd Awznmln( n Wkcskn Nhabnmln( amysa dqysdw(nheqmw gdb bnkw ia 0 bkh ob ia a|yamwd(wafn zds yassn dq bns- N hekgn iawynwdzasnaw qmks esnmiaw saekaw zsdiqydsnwndw zskmgkznkw basgnidw-

Awyn bawbn hekgn phkin znsn n NbskgnHnykmn( qbn pav ~qa waqw basgnidw nkminamgdmysnb"wa iawkmyaesnidw- Dw esnmiawgdmwqbkidsaw ia ew mawyn saekd wd d Glkha(

n Nseamykmn a d Csnwkh? id hnid in iawyn~qaw kgnb gdb Cdhpkn( Zasq( PNseamykmn ,ab ~qain+ a Csnwkh ,ab nNwwkb( ab yasbdw awysnyekgdw( wamykid qmks zsdiqydsaw a gdmwqnysnpw ia qb enwdiqyd( bnw awyn mabzsakynin ia gqsyd zsnvd-

Ysnyn"wa ia dcsn ekenmyawgn( gdb kpnskpakw n wasab nmnhkwninw( iawiny n zdhykgn ia zsadw( znwwnmensnmykn in d`asyn a zahdw `kmnmgmagawwskdw- Yabdw ldfa bnkw ia >::ampdhpkinw mawyn `nwa ia nmhkwa

@EP Zsdfaydw6 Inin n nyqnh pdhnykhkinia mdw zsadw id cnsskh ia zayshad( gdbd gdmiqvkin n zdhykgn ia zsadw iagdbcqwypakw md Csnwkh4

Fdw Wsekd Encskahhk6 kbzdsynmya iawyng~qa md l qbn `sbqhn mkgn znsn `kia zsadw- L pskdw zdmydw ia sa`aszsagkwnb was nia~qninbamya gdmwka nmnhkwnidw znsn ~qa wa zdwwn izdwkgkdmnbamyd gdmwkwyamya ia z

Zds a|abzhd( pkpabdw nyqnhbamybdbamyd ab ~qa dw zsadw id cnsskzayshad awyd ab mpakw ahapgdmpkpamid gdb bqkyn pdhnykhkinia ,zin kmwynckhkinia md Dskamya Bikyn|nw ia fqsdw cnk|nw-Amysa dw dqysdw gdbzdmamyaw ~qa mn ia`kmkd ia zsadw( l d gsawgkbagdbcqwypakw samdppakw( n ~qawbnkds znsya in zsdiqd a|zdsynin awygnsed ia awynidw ab sanw kmwypnmykenw waya ksbw nzsawamynb fnmdw bnkw paminw ~qa zsdiqd( dwbabcsdw in DZAZ md yb awybqhngahasns wqn zsdiqd a d awysnmeqhid sa`kmd ia had zawnid( d ~qa ia

nqbamyns n bnseab znsn ~qab gdmwazsdgaww"hd-

Nhb ikwwd( d Csnwkh yab nhgnsngyaswykgnw mkgnw zds yas wnqydbdckhwykgn ldfa zsnykgnbamya zds yas qb hdmed lkwyskgd gdb d gdbcqwypah a zds nzsawamyns azasgamyqnh ia niqhyasnd- Yqid kbznia`kmkd idw zsadw a yab mdw zabnmy"hdw sahnykpnbamya awypakwpdhnykhkinia kmyasmngkdmnh-


7/28


Iazamimgkn a ikpaswk`kgndmd `dsmagkbamyd ia ew mnyqsnh

E WM NYQSNH

Dypkd Bkahmko Idqyds ab Agdmdbkn in Amasekn( Kmwykyqy iAgdmdbka ay ia Zdhkyk~qa ia hAmaseka(Qmkpaswky ia Esamdcha( a gdmwqhyds in @EP Zsdfaydw

N waeqsnmn md nzsdpkwkdmnbamyd iaamasekn awysnyekgn znsn n

awynckhkinia agdmbkgn a diawampdhpkbamyd- Apdhqkmid idw awynidwmngkdmnkw ehdcnhkvnd( wqzasnmid dgdm`hkyd a pnhdskvnmid n gddzasnd( nensnmykn id wqzskbamyd ia amasekn yab wkiddcykin gdb n zsdbdd ia cama`gkdwgdbqmw nd gdmfqmyd idw znsykgkznmyaw-

N apdhqd yagmdhekgn sagamya pabzasbkykmid wqzasns cnssaksnw hdgnkw a nbzhknsnw `sdmyaksnw idw basgnidw amaseykgdw- Mdgnwd id ew mnyqsnh( awyn apdhqd yabam`samynid n skekiav inw gdma|aw zds

enwdiqyd( ~qa hkbkynb d ngawwd idwgdmwqbkidsaw n qbn mkgn san ia zsdiqd-N kmysdiqd ia gniaknw ia ew mnyqsnhhk~qa`akyd ,EMH+ nhyasn wqcwynmgknhbamya awwnwkyqnd( kmysdiqvkmid n gdmgdssmgkn ehdcnhamysa zsdiqydsaw a zasbkykmid d ngawwd idwgdmwqbkidsaw n bahldsaw gdmikaw ia d`asynid zsdiqyd-

D qwd id ew mnyqsnh yab wa a|znmikid aesniqnhbamya wqcwykyqid dqysdw amaseykgdwmn easnd ysbkgn ia amasekn ahyskgn( mn

snvd ia qbn ~qasahn wagqhns ~qa dza znwaw( iawia ~qa n Cdhkpkn zasiaq

nd bns mn Eqassn id Zng`kgd( ab >Ncnhnin zds wqgawwkpnw gskwaw zdn iazdwkd ia Edmvnhd Wnmglav ia Hab dqyqcsd ia 3::7( n Cdhkpkn wd`saqiswykgn saiqd mdw kmpawykbamywskdw nd iawampdhpkbamyd ia wqnwew mnyqsnh-

kmiwyskn( mnw sawkimgknw a md waydsgdbasgknh( zskmgkznhbamya mdw Awynidw

Qmkidw( mn Aqsdzn a md Fnzd- Nw sawaspnwia ew mnyqsnh amgdmysnb"wa( bqkynw pavaw(ikwynmyaw idw zskmgkznkw gamysdw ia gdmwqbd(`nvamid gdb ~qa d ysnmwzdsya wa ydsma dahabamyd iagkwkpd znsn n pknckhkvndagdmbkgn( zdhykgn a nbckamynh id `hq|d iaew mnyqsnh-

Mn Nbskgn id Wqh( n Nseamykmn d bnkdsbasgnid ia ew mnyqsnh( qykhkvnid ab 11!id gdmwqbd ia amasekn id znw- Gdb sawaspnwwqcwynmgknkw( n Nseamykmn qykhkvn 7

id zsdiqyd gdmwqbkid md Glkha- Nw bnkdsawsawaspnw in saekd amgdmysnb"wa mn Pama"vqahn( gdb 9-3 yskhlaw ia baysdw gckgdw,b+ ia sawaspnw zsdpninw ,0>! id ydynh+-

N Cdhkpkn yab qb basgnid sahnykpnbamyabdiawyd( bnw ikwza ia sawaspnw a qbnhdgnhkvnd eades`kgn zskpkhaekninw ab sahndndw zskmgkznkw basgnidw in saekd- Gdbenwdiqydw hkenmid wqnw sanw ia zsdiqd iaew mnyqsnh Nseamykmn a nd Csnwkh( n Cdhkpknmd yab gdma|d gdb d basgnid id Glkha ab

Ia nyd( dw skwgdw nwwdgknidw zsdimnyqsnh nqbamynsnb gdmwkiasnpahbanzsdpnd in mdpn Hak ia Lkisdgnscdmabnsd ia 3::1( a n ahakd zsawkiamgknhBdsnhaw( ab mdpabcsd id bawbd nmd( g

hkinmid d nqbamyd ia >


8/28

AMASEKN&ZAYSHAD < WAYABCSD 3::0

> ^qnmid awykpas gdmghqid( d Enwdiqyd YWC yas 0>9 ob( gdmagynmid Qsqeqnknmn n Zdsyd Nhaesa- Zds am~qnmyd( yab nzamnw 31 o`sdmyaksn gdb n Nseamykmn( d YWC wa gdmagyn nd YEB ,Ysnmwzdsynidsn Enw iah Basgdwqs+-

3 Iawampdhpkidw zds Nmi{ @hduas( Fnbaw Famwam( amysa dqysdw-

D gdmwqbd ia ew mnyqsnh md Glkhagdssawzdmia n 3;! in amasekn gdmwqbkin mdznw( qykhkvnid awzagknhbamya znsn n easndahyskgn- Yamid n Nseamykmn gdbd mkgd dsma"gaids( d Glkha `dk nykmekid zahn saiqd mnzsdiqd ia ew mnyqsnh nseamykmd ab 3::7"3::9- Sawqhynid id gdmeahnbamyd mnw ynsk`nw

ia ew mnyqsnh kbzdwyd zahd edpasmdnseamykmd amysa Fnmaksd ia 3::3 a Bnkd ia3::9( n gskwa ia ncnwyagkbamyd apkiamgkdq niazamimgkn a pqhmasnckhkinia id Glkha absahnd Nseamykmn- N wqzasnd inwikàsamnw gdb n Cdhkpkn waskn n bahlds dzdznsn ~qa d Glkha ensnmykwwa d waqncnwyagkbamyd ab ew mnyqsnh a bahldsnwwan wqn zdwkd ia maedgknd gdb nNseamykmn-

D basgnid id ew mnyqsnh md Csnwkh awy aba|znmwd( yamid gsawgkid 33! nd nmd amysa3::: a 3::9- Mawwa zasdid( d gdmwqbdznwwdq ia 9! znsn >:! id gdmwqbd ydynh

zsdpb in Cdhkpkn ,;3!+ a in Nseamykmn ,

Nseamykmn iawykmnb"wa nzamnw QwkmnYasbahyskgn ia Qsqeqnknmn ,0:: BU+( mdSkd Esnmia id Wqh( md kmgkd id EnwdiqydYWC ,Ysnmwzdsynidsn WqhCsnwkhaksn+( zs|kbd `sdmyaksn gdb n Nseamykmn>-

Qbn mdpn san ia zsdiqd `dk iawgdcasynmn Cngkn ia Wnmydw ,Gnbzd ia Ba|khld+( ab3::7( gdb sawaspnw awykbninw ab 9>; ckhlawia b- Awwn iawgdcasyn( n >1: ob id bnkdsgamysd ia gdmwqbd ia ew mnyqsnh id znw(ab qbn san waspkin zahd ew cdhkpknmd(nesaedq 97! w sawaspnw zsdpninw id znw aawyncahagaq mdpnw cnwaw znsn n maedgkndgdb n Cdhkpkn- Ia `nyd( d Gnbzd ia Ba|khld

ikwza ia qbn samin ia zdwkd ab sahndnd ew kbzdsynid in Cdhkpkn( kmfaynid abenwdiqyd n qbn ikwymgkn ia 3-9:: ob insaekd baysdzdhkynmn ia Wd Znqhd-

N sagamya awynykvnd in zsdiqd ia ewmnyqsnh mn Cdhkpkn a n bqinmn mnw gdmikawia maedgknd idw zsadw id ew a|zdsynidawyd saia`kmkmid n zdhykgn ia ncnwyagkbamydia ew mnyqsnh id Csnwkh- N zdwkd idedpasmd Apd Bdsnhaw pkwn nbzhkns nw sagakynwin Cdhkpkn gdb n pamin ia ew mnyqsnh a

gdmwdhkins waq zdias zdhykgd- Mdwqn zskmgkznh gdmwa~qmgkn awygkns nw zsdzdsaw in iazamimgbasgnid csnwkhaksd ab sahnd n qb `dsmagaids ia ew mnyqsnh- Nhb iiabdmwysn n magawwkinia ia ikpaswngawwd n dqysnw `dmyaw ia `dsmagk

zsdzdsaw ~qa gdmwdhkiab n waeqsnzsdpkwkdmnbamyd-

In iazamimgkn In iazamimgkn In iazamimgkn In iazamimgkn In iazamimgkn ikpaswk`kgndikpaswk`kgndikpaswk`kgndikpaswk`kgndikpaswk`kgnd

Ysnynmid in waeqsnmn md nzsdpkwkamaseykgd( qbn ikwgqypah sahnd nzsawamynin amysa nqyd"wq`kgknqydmdbkn mn eawyd id wkwyabn amIa `nyd( ~qnmid d gsawgkbamyd in zsdhdgnh ia amasekn nykmea qb pdhqbzasbkya wnykw`nvas n iabnmin( gdmw

~qa a|kwya nqyd"wq`kgkmgkn- Mdbawbd zdia dgdssas ~qnmid n nzhkgnbaikinw ia gdmwaspnd amaseykgnab qbn saiqd id gdmwqbd( dq nkm~qnmid d gdmwqbd ia amasekn gsawgakmàskdsaw nd gsawgkbamyd in zsdimpah ia nqyd"wq`kgkmgkn ( zdsynn qb iayasbkmnid bdbamyd mn sahnzsdiqd"gdmwqbd ia amasekn( iayasbkzds gdmikaw bngsd"agdmbkgnw(hekgnw( zdhykgnw a wdgknkw( wqhkinia iagdssamya ia pnsknaw maww

ia amasekn md znw- Awykbn"wa ~qa gdmwqbdia ew mnyqsnh nykmfn >>: bkhlaw ia b$iknab 3:>1- N zsdiqd csqyn hdgnh ia 95(9bkhlaw ia b$ikn awy hdgnhkvnin( ab wqnbnkds znsya( mn saekd Wqiawya( zskmgkznhbamyamn Cngkn ia Gnbzdw ,93! in zsdiqd ydynhid znw ab 3::1+- Mn saekd Mdsiawya awydhdgnhkvninw dqysnw sanw zsdiqydsnw ia ewmnyqsnh ,pas Yncahn >+-

N dàsyn ia ew mnyqsnh 1:! hdgnh a 1:!kbzdsynin ,pas Yncahn 3+- Nw kbzdsynaw


9/28

AMASEKN&ZAYSHAD ; WAYABCSD 3::0

N ehdcnhkvnd a n hkcasnhkvnd idw wkwyabnwamaseykgdw mdw zskmgkznkw basgnidw nbzhkdqnw zdwwkckhkiniaw ia wqn eawyd znsn nhb inw`sdmyaksnw mngkdmnkw- Kwwd kbzhkgn ab skwgdw(bnkdsaw dq bamdsaw( ab `qmd in ikwymgknamysa nw sanw ia zsdiqd a dw gamysdw iagdmwqbd( id saekba zdhykgd id znw dq

znwaw zahdw ~qnkw ysnmwkyn d amaseykgd( inpkin ykh inw kmwynhnaw ia ysnmwzdsya( amysadqysdw- Id bawbd bdid( mn zsdiqd hdgnhia amasekn ynbcb l skwgdw( gdb saiqvkinzsdcnckhkinia bnw esnmia kbzngyd( indgdssmgkn ia ngkiamyaw ~qa kmyassdbznbd `qmgkdmnbamyd ia zhnyn`dsbnw iazsdiqd ia ew mnyqsnh( zdiamid nàyns dncnwyagkbamyd znsn d gdmfqmyd idw

gdmwqbkidsaw ia iayasbkmnin san iqsnmyaqb zasdid ia yabzd- Iawwa bdid( n nqyd"wq`kgkmgkn md zsawaspn qb znw id skwgdia sqzyqsn ab waq nzsdpkwkdmnbamydamaseykgd( gdb kmapkypakw gdmwa~qmgknwagdmbkgnw a wdgknkw-

Md gnwd in nqydmdbkn mn eawydamaseykgn ia qb znw( ysnyn"wa ia nbzhknsn waeqsnmn( ikpaswk`kgnmid nw `dmyaw iancnwyagkbamyd- Ia `nyd( d zsdchabn mdawy mn iazamimgkn ia ew mnyqsnhkbzdsynid( bnw md pdhqba ~qa wa kbzdsynia gnin abzsawn dq znw zsdiqyds- Npqhmasnckhkinia md awy mn iazamimgknid ew mnyqsnh in Cdhkpkn( bnw md `nyd iasazsawamyns ;3! id pdhqba kbzdsynid a`dsmagas 1:! in dàsyn ydynh ia ew mnyqsnhmd Csnwkh- N ikpaswk`kgnd inw `dmyaw ianzsdpkwkdmnbamyd znwwn zahn kbzhnmyndia gniaknw ia ew mnyqsnh hk~qaàkyd(zasbkykmid n kbzdsynd ia pdhqbawbamdsaw zsdpamkamyaw ia ikàsamyaw znwawa pknckhkvnmid( iawwa bdid( qbn saiqdwqcwynmgknh id skwgd ia iawncnwyagkbamyd-

N iabnmin ia ew mnyqsnh mn san waspkinzahd Enwdiqyd Cdhkpkn"Csnwkh gsawgaq 77! ndnmd amysa 3::: a 3::1- N samaedgkndawyncahagkin zahd edpasmd in Cdhkpkn( abbnkd ia 3::0( idw gdmysnydw( kbzdwydw a

zsadw id ew mnyqsnh( zsnykgnidw zahnwabzsawnw zsdiqydsnw( iapa nàyns nwgdmikaw agdmbkgnw in dàsyn id zsdiqydmn san waspkin zahd enwdiqyd- Awwa `nydapkiamgkn n pqhmasnckhkinia sawqhynmya iniazamimgkn ia qbn mkgn `dmya znsn nkbzdsynd id ew mnyqsnh-

Qb enwdiqyd ysnmwmngkdmnh yamia ngdmwdhkins n kmyasiazamimgkn amysa sanwia zsdiqd( wkyqninw ab qb znw( a gamysdwia gdmwqbd( hdgnhkvnidw ab dqysd-Zsdiqydsaw wa zsadgqznb gdb diawampdhpkbamyd id basgnid gdmwqbkidszds nbzhkns n sagakyn ~qa sagacab gdb npamin id ew mnyqsnh- Gdmwqbkidsaw

zsaàsab ~qa wafn zsawaspnin n sagakynsagackin zahdw zsdiqydsaw zds~qa kwwdbnmyb n awynckhkinia agdmbkgn azdhykgn magawwskn gdmykmqkinia idwgdmysnydw ia kbzdsynd id ew mnyqsnh-Abcdsn n sngkdmnhkinia agdmbkgn iapnzsapnhagas( qb ahapnid esnq ia

iazamimgkn id basgnid gdmwqbkids,1:! id basgnid ia ew mnyqsnh id Csnwkh+ab sahnd san ia zsdiqd ,Cdhkpkn+bahldsn( gdmwkiasnpahbamya( d zdias iacnsenmln id zsdiqyds-

Gdbd n pknckhkinia id ysnmwzdsya ia ew zdsenwdiqyd magawwkyn gdmysnydw ia hdmed zsnvd(ampdhpamid esnmiaw pdhqbaw( ab ~qnmyk"

ampdhpkidw( awwn skekiav zdia waynbcb( sawzdmwpah zahn nbzhkniazamimgkn gsawgamya id basgnid ab n awwn `dmya ia ncnwyagkbamyd ab ewGdbd kwwd nyamia ndw kmyasawwawa id ysnmwzdsynids( dw skwgdw in iazw wa ydsmnb apkiamyaw ab wkyqn

D zsdfayd id Enwdiqgyd iah Wqs zsab fnmaksd ia 3::0 gdb a|yamwd zsaia ;-31: bkhikn ia ew mnyqsnh in Pamavqahn znsnNseamykmn a Qsqeqnk- Awya zsdfaa|gahamya a|abzhd znsn iabdmwysns n ia esnmiaw pdhqbaw a n gdmwa~qiazamimgkn id basgnid gdmwqbkzsdbdpkidw zds qb enwdiqyd ia esnmgnzngkinia-

Znsn nhb inw kmyamaw zdhykgnwn km`hqmgkn id zsawkiamya in PaLqed Glpav( wdcsa dw znwaw id Gdd Enwdiqgyd iah Wqs yaskn zds aàkynw dzaw ia ngawwd id Csnwkh nd kmyasmngkdmnh ia ew mnyqsnh- Zndw kmpawykbamydw magawwskdw id enwdiqyd( esnmiaw pdhqbaw yasknbdcfayd ia gdmysnydw ia hdmed zàglnmid d ngawwd ia znsgahn wqcwid basgnid csnwkhaksd n dqysnw sazsdiqd ia ew mnyqsnh-

Dw zhnmdw ikpqhenidw zahdw edpaznwaw ampdhpkidw md zsdfayd kmd Csnwkh gdmwqbkskn ;: bkhlaw ian Nseamykmn 1: bkhlaw ia b$iknQsqeqnk >: bkhlaw ia b$ikn- Gdbzsapkwd ia iabnmin ia ew mnyqsn

N pqhmasnckhkinia md awy mn iazamimgkn id ew

mnyqsnh in Cdhkpkn( bnw md `nyd ia sazsawamyns ;3!id pdhqba kbzdsynid a `dsmagas 1:! in dàsynydynh ia ew mnyqsnh md Csnwkh-

Qb enwdiqyd ysnmwmngkdmnh yamia n gdmwdhkinkmyasiazamimgkn amysa sanw ia zsdiqd( wkyqninw ab qb znw( a gamysdw ia gdmwqbd(hdgnhkvnidw ab dqysd-

iniaw gsawgamyaw( l qbn skekiav ~qa ngncnwa kbzdmid a ~qa cama`kgkn( ia qb hnid( dzsdiqyds ~qa bnmyb( iawwa bdid( niazamimgkn gsawgamya id gdmwqbkids absahnd nd waq zsdiqyd a( ia dqysd hnid( dzsdzskayskd id enwdiqyd ~qa ensnmya ndgqznd in kmwynhnd a n pknckhkvnd ia waqkmpawykbamyd- Iazamiamid idw pdhqbaw

Csnwkh( ab 3:>1( wkyqn"wa ab >>: bia b$ikn( n dcskend zahd basgncsnwkhaksd ia gdmwqbks qb pdhqbabkhlaw ia b$ikn kbzhkgnskn ab saiqzsdiqd hdgnh ~qa wa awzasn nbzab >1 bkhlaw ia b$ikn zahn zsdiqid Gnbzd ia Ba|khlaw a iawhdgnskbzdsynd in Cdhkpkn-


10/28

AMASEKN&ZAYSHAD >: WAYABCSD 3::0

N kmysdiqd id ew pamavqahnmd ynbcbwaskn gdbzha|n mn Nseamykmn( zdkw ny 3:>1awzasn"wa ~qa d iawgdmeahnbamyd inw ynsk`nwpknckhkva mdpdw kmpawykbamydw znsn diawampdhpkbamyd ia gnbzdw ia ew mnyqsnhmnw cngknw ia Maq~qm a Nqwysnh- Mdamynmyd( awwaw kmpawykbamydw `kgnsknbgdbzsdbaykidw gnwd d basgnid nseamykmdykpawwa ~qa ncwdspas dw pdhqbaw nikgkdmnkwzsapkwydw zahd Enwdiqgyd iah Wqs- Bawbd~qa `dwwa iawhdgnin znsn d Glkha( awwn mdpngnzngkinia ia zsdiqd in Nseamykmnam`samynskn n gdmgdssmgkn ia yasbkmnkw iasaenwak`kgnd a mdpnw sanw ia zsdiqdia ew mnyqsnh n wasab a|zhdsninw md Glkha-

Qbn gniakn ia EMHyab gqwyd ahapnid( bnwn ikwymgkn nd basgnidmd yd gsqgknh ~qnmyd znsn n amysaenid ew mnyqsnh zds enwdiqyd- Dw gqwydw iaysnmwzdsya zds enwdiqyd wdnhynbamya wamwpakw

awgnhn a ikwymgkn nd basgnid-

7 iawampdhpkidw zds Nmi{ @hduas( Fnbaw Famwam( amysa dqysdw-

Iawwa bdid( d kmyasawwa zahd ew mnyqsnhin Pamavqahn iapaskn dskamyns"wa gdbzsnia ew mnyqsnh hk~qaàkyd( ab pdhqbaw ~qamd a|gainb qb znynbns ia waeqsnmn(maedgknidw n zsadw a gdmikawgdbzaykykpdw ab sahnd n dqysnw dmyaw ianzsdpkwkdmnbamyd-

N samaedgknd idw gdmysnydw gdb nwabzsawnw ia zsdiqd ia ew mnyqsnh inCdhkpkn zsdpdgdq d gnmgahnbamyd ina|znmwd ia gnzngkinia id enwdiqydCdhkpkn"Csnwkh- Lnpkn kmyamd( abcdsn niagkwd `kmnh md ykpawwa wkid ydbnin( ianqbamyns nw kbzdsynaw ab bnkw 70bkhlaw ia b$ikn( d ~qa yaskn nbzhknidnkmin bnkw n iazamimgkn id basgnidcsnwkhaksd ab sahnd nd ew mnyqsnhcdhkpknmd- Iknmya in skekiav kbzdwyn zahd

ysnmwzdsya ia esnmiaw pdhqbaw ia ewmnyqsnh zds enwdiqyd( n bahlds dzd awymn ikpaswk`kgnd inw kbzdsynaw a mdawyncahagkbamyd ia gdmikaw znsn dysnmwzdsya id ew mnyqsnh ab za~qamdwpdhqbaw gdb n kbzhnmynd ia yasbkmnkwia saenwk`kgnd id ew mnyqsnh hk~qaàkyd-

Nbzhknmid d ngawwdNbzhknmid d ngawwdNbzhknmid d ngawwdNbzhknmid d ngawwdNbzhknmid d ngawwdid basgnid nid basgnid nid basgnid nid basgnid nid basgnid n

dqysnw `dmyaw iadqysnw `dmyaw iadqysnw `dmyaw iadqysnw `dmyaw iadqysnw `dmyaw iancnwyagkbamydncnwyagkbamydncnwyagkbamydncnwyagkbamydncnwyagkbamyd

N kbzhnmynd ia yasbkmnkw ia saenwak`kgndmn gdwyn id Csnwkh zdia pknckhkvns n niddia qb bdiahd ia ikpaswk`kgnd inw `dmyawia kbzdsynd id ew mnyqsnh( ab gdmikawia waeqsnmn a `ha|kckhkinia( maedgknmidpdhqbaw bamdsaw ~qa n~qahaw ysnmwngkdmnidwab gdmysnydw ia hdmed zsnvd zds enwdiqyda zsdpamkamyaw ia ikàsamyaw basgnidw a

abzsawnw zsdiqydsnw-D Glkha awy nidynmid n kbzhnmynd iayasbkmnkw ia saenwak`kgnd iazdkw ia yaswkid wqcbaykid( ab 3::9 a 3::1( n qbnsaiqd md `dsmagkbamyd ia ew mnyqsnhin Nseamykmn( mkgd a|zdsynids id ewmnyqsnh gdmwqbkid md znw- Zsdgqsnmidsaiqvks n iazamimgkn id Glkha ab sahnd

nd ew mnyqsnh nseamykmd a bahldzdwkd znsn n maedgknd ia zsagdmikaw( qb yasbkmnh ia saenwakwas gdmwysqid ab ^qkmyasd ,n >1:Wnmykned+- D kmpawykbamyd awyQW) 9:: bkhlaw ,kmghqkmid kmwzdsyqsknw( n saenwak`kgnidsn

nsbnvamnbamyd+ gdb gnzngkinia iabkhlaw ia b$ikn- D yasbkmnh iapasgdmghqid ab 3::; a wqn iabnmin wakmkgknhbamya( ia 1 bkhlaw ia b$i

Zs|kbd id Glkha( d Zasq awy kbzhnmqbn qmkinia ia hk~qa`nd znsgdbasgknhkvns d ew mnyqsnh ia G,91; yskhlaw ia b ia sawaspnw+basgnid in Gdwyn Dawya idw AwQmkidw a d Ba|kgd wd dw zdyamghkamyaw id EMH zasqnmd( bnw n amysa Hkbn a n saekd Mdsya id zdiaskn ydsm"hn qb gdmwqbkids nikgnwd lnfn kbzhnmynd ia qmksaenwak`kgnidsn mn saekd-

N Zaysdcsnw awy gdmwkiasnmkbzhnmynd ia yasbkmnkw ia saenwa awydgneab ia ew mnyqsnh- Qb yaswas gdmwysqid md awynid id SFnmaksd( gdb gnzngkinia amysa >3bkhlaw ia b$ikn( zdiamid awygdmghqid ny 3::


11/28

AMASEKN&ZAYSHAD >> WAYABCSD 3::0

IIIIIqnw wd nw gnqwnw ~qa zsdpdgnsnb dsagamya iawampdhpkbamyd in kmiwysknid ew mnyqsnh md Csnwkh-

N zskbaksn( ia gnsyas awysnyekgd(sahngkdmnin magawwkinia ia ikpaswk`kgndin bnyskv amaseykgn csnwkhaksn- Md zdia dznw iazamias qmkgnbamya in easndlkisqhkgn a id zayshad znsn nyamias wqnmagawwkinia ia amasekn- Dqysnw `dmyawnhyasmnykpnw iapab was awykbqhninw znsngdbzhabamyns d wqzskbamyd amaseykgda|kekid znsn d iawampdhpkbamyd id znw-

N waeqmin( sahngkdmnin gdb n magawwkiniaia zsawaspnd id bakd nbckamya-Awzagknhbamya mn kmiwyskn a md gdmwqbdnqydbdykpd( n qykhkvnd id ew mnyqsnh wanzsawamyn gdbd nhyasmnykpn ~qa dàsagaamdsbaw pnmyneamw gdbznsnykpnw ab sahndnd gnspd( hadw gdbcqwypakw a enwdhkmn-

Md wa zdia bnkw ysnyns d ew mnyqsnh gdbdqbn nhyasmnykpn zdwwpah nzamnw znsn d`qyqsd- N qykhkvnd id ew mnyqsnh qbnsanhkinia md znw a sawzdmia nyqnhbamya zdsbnkw ia >:! in bnyskv amaseykgn md Csnwkh-Esnmiaw kmpawykbamydw `dsnb àkydw zahdAwynid( awzagknhbamya zahn Zaysdcsw a zahdwayds zskpnid mnw sanw ia a|zhdsnd(zsdiqd( ysnmwzdsya a ikwyskcqkd idzsdiqyd- Mdw hykbdw nmdw pask`kgdq"wangamyqnin a|znmwd idw waspkdw ia

Mdpd bnsgd saeqhnyskd znsn n kmid ew mnyqsnh6 was magawwsknia mdpn haekwhnd4

ikwyskcqkd id ew mnyqsnh n gnsed iaabzsawnw awyniqnkw ia ikwyskcqkd( gdbzsaidbmkd ia gnzkynh zskpnid( a inninzynd inw zhnmynw kmiqwysknkw znsnqykhkvnd id ew mnyqsnh- A l kmbasdwzsdfaydw ab nminbamyd znsn n a|znmwd idwayds- Nzamnw n Zaysdcsnw zsayamia kmpawyks(md zasdid ia 3::0 n 3:>:( QW) >0 ckhlawmn gniakn id ew mnyqsnh-Mdw hykbdw bawaw esnmia ikwgqwwd awywamid zsdpdgnin md Csnwkh zdsngdmyagkbamydw mn Cdhpkn- D Zsawkiamya Apd

Bdsnhaw( ab nykyqia qmkhnyasnh( a|zsdzskdq dwcamw inw abzsawnw ~qa a|zhdsnpnb d ewmnyqsnh ab wdhd cdhkpknmd( mahnw kmghqin nZaysdcsw( a nbann zsdbdpas qbn nhyasndmdw pnhdsaw in gdbasgknhkvnd id zsdiqyd-D iawampdhpkbamyd in kmiqwyskn id ewmnyqsnh dcwaspnid ab mdwwd znw ngkbn

bamgkdmnid iaq"wa( ab esnmia znsya( iapkidnd kmgsabamyd id gdmwqbd iagdssamya inkbzhnmynd id enwdiqyd Cdhpkn Csnwkh- Qbnwqwzamwd dq saiqd ncsqzyn mn dàsyn id

ew mnyqsnh pkmid in Cdhpkn zdiasgdmwkiaspakw zsafqvdw nd waydscsnwkhaksd Zds dqysd hnid iapa was ba~qa kmpawykbamydw gdmykmqnb n wa|zhdsnd ia dqysnw sawaspnw ia ewbdwysab gdbasgknhbamya pkpakw- a|zagynykpn `dk zsdpdgnin zahn saiawgdcasyn ia sawaspnw gdmwkiaszsdiqyd mn cngkn ia Wnmydw-D Csnwkh amgdmysn"wa iawyn dsbnmagawwkinia kbzaskdwn6 zsdbdpasiawampdhpkbamyd inw mdpnw `dzsdiqd ia ew mnyqsnh( awzagknh

nysnpw in a|zhdsnd ia mdpdw zda|znmwd in saia ia ikwyskcqkdzsdiqyd- Md zdia `kgns mn zaskedkmwypah iazamimgkn id ncnwyaiagdssamya ia zddw cdhkpknmdw( bamya iknmya idw wkmnkw sagamyawnqydskiniaw id znw pkvkmld-

Znsn qb iawampdhpkbamyd waeqwqwyamypah in kmiwyskn id ew magawwskd ~qa wafnb `k|ninw saeawyncahanb qb bnsgd saeqhnysk

wayds- Iapab was `k|ninw gdmikapakw a ghnsnw n sawzakyd id iawampid wayds a gskyskdw dcfaykpdw imasnd idw kmpawykbamydw n was

E WM NYQSNH

Aqemkd Bdmydsd Idqyds ab Gkmgknw Fqsikgnw a Wdgknkw zahn ZQG"WZ( zsdàwwds in @EP"ANAWZ a gdmwqhyds in @EP Zsdfaydw

N qykhkvnd id ew mnyqsnh qbn sanhkinia md znwa sawzdmia nyqnhbamya zds bnkw ia >:! ,iav zds gamyd+ in bnyskv amaseykgn md Csnwkh-

Znsn qb iawampdhpkbamyd waeqsd a wqwyamypah inkmiwyskn id ew mnyqsnh magawwskd ~qa wafn`k|ninw saesnw ~qa awyncahanb qb bnsgdsaeqhnyskd id wayds-

>>AMASEKN&ZAYSHAD >> WAYABCSD 3::0


12/28

AMASEKN&ZAYSHAD >3 WAYABCSD 3::0

Gdhdgn"wa iawyn bnmaksn qbn ~qawyda|ysabnbamya kbzdsynmya ~qa awy wamidikwgqykin awya nmd md Gdmesawwd Mngkdmnh-Was ~qa a|kwya ab mdwwd znw qb bnsgdsaeqhnyskd wq`kgkamyabamya ghnsd a awypah~qa ensnmyn dw kmpawykbamydw ~qa wa`nvab magawwskdw4

Ab banidw id nmd znwwnid `dk nzsawamynidzahd Wamnids Sdidh`d Ydqskmld qb Zsdfayd iaHak awyncahagamid saesnw zszsknw znsn na|zhdsnd( zsdiqd( ysnmwzdsya( nsbn"

vamneab a gdbasgknhkvnd id zsdiqyd-Waeqmid waq nqyds d zsdfayd sa`haya nwgdmghqwaw ia awyqidw a zsdzdwynw nzsa"wamyninw zahdw ikpaswdw neamyaw id wayds-

Mawya nmd( Zsdfayd ia Hak gdb kimykgdzsdzwkyd `dk nzsawamynid mn Gbnsn idwIazqynidw zahd iazqynid Hqgknmd Vkgn-

Ab bnsd `dk amgnbkmlnid Gbnsn idwIazqynidw zsdfayd wabahlnmya ia nqydsknid Zdias A|agqykpd( ~qa `dk nzamwnid nd

id iazqynid Hqgknmd Vkgn a awy yamid(gdb awya( ysnbkynd gdmfqmyn-

D zsdfayd id Wamnids Ydqskmld f `dknzsagknid a nzsdpnid zahn Gdbkwwd iaGdmwykyqkd a Fqwykn id Wamnid @aiasnh(awynmid znsn was nzsagknid zahn Gdbkwwdia Nwwqmydw Agdmbkgdw- Iapas( abwaeqkin( was nzsagknid zahn Gdbkwwd iaKm`sn"awysqyqsn a waeqks znsn n pdyndab Zhamskd- Waeqmid n dzkmkd iabqkydw( nzawns inw ik`kgqhiniaw ~qa wazdiab zsapas znsn n ysnbkynd iazsdfaydw ia hak md Gdmesawwd Mngkdmnh mdwaeqmid wabawysa iawya nmd( yamid abpkwyn n sanhkvnd ia ahakaw easnkw abdqyqcsd( d Wamnid iapas gdmghqks nnzsagknd id zsdfayd nmyaw inw ahakaw-Ab waeqkin d zsdfayd iapas waeqks znsnnzsagknd in Gbnsn-

D zsdfayd id Iazqynid Hqgknmd Vkgn(nzamwnid nd zsdfayd id A|agqykpd( abysnbkynd mn Gbnsn( amgdmysn"wa ab

`nwa ia nqikmgknw zchkgnw( ~qa iapasddgdssas mdw zs|kbdw bawaw- Iapas( abwaeqkin( znwwns zahn nmhkwa inwGdbkwwaw a waeqks znsn nzsagknd zahdZhamskd- Zdqgdw awzasnb ~qa d zsdfaydwafn nzsagknid nkmin mawyn wawwdhaekwhnykpn-

Sagamyabamya( bnmkàwynaw inZsawkimgkn in Zaysdcsnw kmikgnpnb na|kwymgkn ia qbn yasgaksn zsdzdwyn-Waeqmid awyn( waskn wq`kgkamya bnmyas n

haekwhnd f a|kwyamya a nzsdpnin ~qnmidin zsdbqhend in Hak Easnh id Zayshad(ab >;;5( ~qa nzsawamyn( waeqmid nheqmw(n magawwskn `ha|kckhkinia znsn nwwaeqsnsd iawampdhpkbamyd id wayds-

Iawyn `dsbn( wd ysw nw nhyasmnykpnw ~qanyqnhbamya wa nzsawamynb znsn niayasbkmnd ia qb bnsgd saeqhnyskdznsn n kmiwyskn id ew mnyqsnh6 nnzsdpnd id zsdfayd id Wamnids

Ydqskmld( dq n nzsdpnd id zsdfayd idiazqynid Hqgknmd Vkgn a id ZdiasA|agqykpd dq n md nzsdpnd ia hak mdpn(zasbnmagamid dw gskyskdw awyncahagkidwzahn Hak Easnh id Zayshad-

^qnkw nw ikàsamnw cwkgnw amysa dw idkwzsdfaydw ~qa awyd wamid nzsagknidw 4

Nheqbnw ikàsamnw zdiab was nzdmyninw6

>- d zsdfayd id Wamnids Ydqskmld zsapn saiqd ia nqydskvnaw zsagsknwznsn dw waspkdw n wasab zsawynidwzahdw neamyaw id wayds( nqbamynmid

nw a|kemgknw znsn n gahacsngdmysnydw ia gdmgawwd iaynhlnidw a awypakw( n wagahacsnidw nzw zsdgaikbamhkgkynyskdw- D zsdfayd id A|bnmyb n zdwwkckhkinia ia wagdmgaikinw nqydskvnaw Bkmkwyskd ia Bkmnw a Amgdmwkiasninw bnkw nzsdzskningasynw wkyqnaw( n gskysnqydskiniaw edpasmnbamynkw-

3- d zsdfayd id Wamnids Ydqskmld bnkds nyqnd inw nemgksaeqhnidsnw( kmgqbckinw ngdbznmlns n a|agqd idw gdmysia gdmgawwd- D zsdfayd id A|agsa`dsn n gdbzaymgkn id Bkmkia Bkmnw a Amasekn a saiqvnqydmdbkn a zdiasaw inw nemsaeqhnidsnw-

7- d zsdfayd id Wamnids Ydqskmld d iksakyd ia a|ghqwkpkinia ia ngnwwaeqsnid ndw kmpawykidsaenwdiqydw ia ysnmwzdsya id mnyqsnh( am~qnmyd ~qa d zsdfaA|agqykpd nwwaeqsn bnkdsaw pnmznsn dw gdmwysqydsaw idw enw

Was ~qa a|kwya ab mdwwd znw qb bnsgd saeqhnyskd wq`kgkamyabamya ghnsd a awypah ~qa ensnmyn dwkmpawykbamydw ~qa wa `nvab magawwskdw4

D zsdfayd id A|agqykpd bnmyb n zdwwkckhkinia ia wasab gdmgaikinw nqydskvnaw zahd Bkmkwyskd Bkmnw a Amasekn( gdmwkiasninw bnkw nzsdzskninw agasynw wkyqnaw( n gskyskd inw nqydskiniaedpasmnbamynkw-

kbzdsynmya kmikgns nkmin n zd`kgknhbamya ydbnin zahd @sqbWagsayskdw ia Amasekn idw Awynnzsdpn a nzkn d zsdfayd nzsawamynWamnids Ydqskmld- Kimykgn bnmia nzdkd `dk nzsdpnin zahn NCAENW

Awynw wd nw nhyasmnykpnw ~qa wnyqnhbamya a ~qa dsnb dcfayd ia ikwab Wabkmskd wdcsa d Bnsgd SaeqhnyKmiwyskn id Ew Mnyqsnh zsdbdpbnkd znwwnid zahn @qmind EaPnsenw( ab Wd Znqhd- Neqnsin"wa iagkwd id Gdmesawwd Mngkdmnh-


13/28


Dawyncahagkbamyd ia qb mdpd bdiahdkmwykyqgkdmnh znsn d wayds ia amaseknahyskgn md Csnwkh( n znsyks ia 3::7(

`dk fqwyk`kgnid zahd edpasmd àiasnh zahnmagawwkinia ia zhnmafns n a|znmwd in dàsynia amasekn ahyskgn zds bakd in pknckhkvndin kbzhnmynd ia mdpdw zsdfaydw iaeasnd( wab zasias ia pkwyn d zskmgzkd inbdikgkinia ynsk`skn-

Pnha bamgkdmns ~qa d nbckamya md waydsia amasekn mawwn zdgn asn ia ydynh iawgdm"yamynbamyd in bnkdskn idw neamyaw6easnidsaw( ikwyskcqkidsaw( gdmwqbkidsaw agdbasgknhkvnidsaw- Nhyasnaw mnw saesnwpkeamyaw asnb magawwsknw ny bawbd znsnsabaikns n wkyqnd ia iawa~qkhcskdagdmbkgd"`kmnmgaksd idw neamyaw iaeasnd a ikwyskcqkd( gnqwnin zskmgkznh"bamya zahd sngkdmnbamyd ia 3::>-

Nhb id iawa~qkhcskd agdmbkgd`kmnmgaksd a d gdmfqmyqsnh a|gawwd ia dàsynia amasekn md basgnid( asn gdmwamwd amysadw neamyaw a d edpasmd àiasnh ~qa mda|kwyknb gdmikaw znsn pknckhkvns n a|znmwdin easnd ia amasekn ahyskgn ab pdhqbawgdbznypakw gdb n a|zagynykpn ia gsawgk"bamyd id znw- Mn pasinia( n wkyqnd asnia ydynh znsnhkwnd inw iagkwaw iakmpawykbamyd( d ~qa easnpn wsknw zsadgq"znaw gdb sahnd waeqsnmn id wqzsk"bamyd ia amasekn n bikd a hdmed zsnvdw-

D iawn`kd a|kwyamya asn gdbznykckhkvns n fqwyn sabqmasnd znsn d kmpawykids ,zchkgddq zskpnid+( pknckhkvnmid nwwkb n a|znmwdin easnd wab zasias ia pkwyn d zskmgzkdin bdikgkinia ynsk`skn- Iapa"wa sawwnhyns ~qan magawwkinia ia nysnks kmpawykbamydw zskpn"

Gqwyd ia gnzkynh znsn a|znmwdin dàsyn ia amasekn ahyskgn

idw qb nwzagyd cwkgd znsn a|znmwd indàsyn ia amasekn ahyskgn( iawia d awedyn"bamyd in gnzngkinia ia kmpawykbamyd idAwynid csnwkhaksd a n gskwa `kmnmgaksn easnh idwayds ia amasekn ahyskgn( apkiamgknin ab>;;7( ~qa gqhbkmdq gdb d nzdsya wkemk`k"gnykpd ia sagqswdw id Yawdqsd Mngkdmnh ,gasgnia QW) 3< ckhlaw+ a n esnmia ik`kgqhinia ianqyd"`kmnmgknbamyd id wayds( n znsyks iasagqswdw zszskdw dq ia yasgaksdw-

Wnca"wa ~qa( n znsyks ia >;;1( dzsdgawwd ia zskpnykvnd a qb bdiahdkmwykyqgkdmnh cnwanid mn gdbzaykd( ynmydmd waebamyd ia easnd ~qnmyd md iagdbasgknhkvnd( gdmwaeqksnb nysnkskmpawykbamydw zskpnidw a hapnsnb n qbna|znmwd mn gnzngkinia ia easnd( md

zasdid >;;1"3:::( wqzaskds ab >0>!n~qahn dgdsskin md zasdid >;;:">;;9-Bawbd awwn wkemk`kgnykpn a|znmwd md `dkwq`kgkamya znsn apkyns d sngkdmnbamyd iaamasekn ab 3::>( iapkid nd hdmed zasdidnmyaskds ia hkbkynidw kmpawykbamydw

N iawgdmykmqkinia in kbzhnmynd idzsdgawwd ia zskpnykvnd sawqhydq ab qbnawysqyqsn ia gnzkynh lcskin ,zchkgd"zskpnin+znsn d wayds( ab awzagknh md waebamyd iaeasnd( zdkw gasgn ia 0 ia iavabia 3::1 zdia was pkwyd gdbd qb bnsg`qminbamynh mn kbzhabamynd idbdiahd- @dk n zskbaksn dzdsyqmkinnpnhkns wa nw mdpnw saesnw zsdzdwn gnzngkinia ia nysnks kmpawykidsawa nqbamyns n dàsyn ia amasekn( ab

gdbznypakw gdb d gsawgkbamyd awzZKC a bnmyamid"wa d zskmgzbdikgkinia ynsk`skn-

Mawya hakhd `dsnb gdmysnynidBU bikdw ia amasekn mdpn( d ~qa was~qnmykinia wq`kgkamya znsn d nyamikiabnmin ab qb gamskd ia gsawgkbambdiasnid ,gamskd ia saàsmgkn id DzaMngkdmnh id Wkwyabn " DMW+-

Gdb sahnd nd nwzagyd in bdikgkynsk`skn a n `dsbn zahn ~qnh awwn ia

AMASEKN AHYSKGN

Edsay Z- Znqhd Bawysa ab Agdmdbkn zahn AZEA$@EP a gdmwqhydsn in @EP Zsdfaydw

N magawwkinia ia nysnks kmpawykbamydw zskpnidwqb nwzagyd cwkgd znsn a|znmwd in dàsyn iaamasekn ahyskgn( iawia d awedynbamyd in gnzngkiniaia kmpawykbamyd id Awynid csnwkhaksd a n gskw`kmnmgaksn easnh id wayds ia amasekn ahyskgn

@asmnmid Gnbngld Bawysa ab Agdmdbkn zahn AZEA$@EP a Bawysa ab @kmnmnw zahd KBZN



14/28


15/28


16/28


pnha gdbznsns n nssagnind saàsamya wZnsykgkznaw Edpasmnbamynkw in kmiwysknzaysdhàsn ia 3::1 `samya nd hykbd inidia sagakyn gdssamya ikwzdmpah znsn wa yas nikbamwd in iazamimgkn gsawgamya idzayshad mn Cngkn ia Gnbzdw- Iawgdmwk"iasnmid"wa d bqmkgzkd ia Gnbzdw idwEd{yngnvaw( ~qa md zdwwqk km`dsbnaw ia

sagakyn gdssamya ikwzdmpah mn cnwa idYawdqsd( awykbn"wa ~qa n nssagnind iasd{nhykawa Znsykgkznaw Awzagknkw mdwbqmkgzkdw in Cngkn ia Gnbzdw( ~qa f asnwkemk`kgnykpn ab 3::>( sazsawamynmid gasgnia 9:! inw sagakynw gdssamyaw( yamlnqhysnznwwnid 11! inw sagakynw gdssamyawab 3::1-

D ghgqhd idwsd{nhykawia iayasbkmnidchdgd iazamia iksaynbamya in nh~qdynnzhkgnin( ~qa pnskn amysa 1! a >:!(

iazamiamid id skwgd eadhekgd a inw a|zagyn"ykpnw ia zsdiqd- Nhb in nh~qdyn( dqysnwpnskpakw cwkgnw a|asgab km`hqmgkn mdbdmynmya iasd{nhykaweasnidw( gdbd nzsdiqd bamwnh ia zayshad a ew mnyqsnhia gnin gnbzd( waqw sawzagykpdw zsadw a nyn|n bikn bamwnh ia gbckd-

Ia bdid ~qa d nqbamyd idwsd{nhykawidw bqmkgzkdw in Cngkn ia Gnbzdw mdwhykbdw nmdw zdia was a|zhkgnid ab esnmiaznsya zahdw es`kgdw( ~qa kmikgnb ~qa nzsdiqd ia zayshad md Skd znwwdq ia 71;bkhlaw ia cnsskw( ab 3:::( znsn 1:3bkhlaw( ab 3::1( qb gsawgkbamyd ia 9:!nd hdmed idw hykbdw gkmgd nmdw- D pdhqbaia ew mnyqsnh zsdiqvkid md bawbd Awynidznwwdq ia 0 ckhlaw ia b7 ab 3:::( znsnnhgnmns( ab 3::1( n bnsgn ia < ckhlaw iab7( saekwysnmid qb nqbamyd ia 7;!-

N bawbn yamimgkn zdia was pasgdb sahnd ndw zsadw ia saàsmzayshad a ew mnyqsnh- Dw es`kgdw~qa d zsad ia zayshad mngkdmnh znwwdq ia S) 795(ab 3:::( znsn S) 7>9(9$bkh b( ab 3::9(gsawgamid >>7! ab ~qnysd nmdw-

Dqysn pnskpah ia a|ysabn kbzdsyznsn d ghgqhd iasd{nhykaw n yn|n bamwnhia gbckd ,S)$QW)+- Nzawns in pdhnymd zasdid( d gbckd bikd nmqnh znia S) >(


17/28

AMASEKN&ZAYSHAD >5 WAYABCSD 3::0AMASEKN&ZAYSHAD

N zsdiqd a d qwd id ckdikawah ybwkid kmgamykpnidw ab pskdw znwaw idbqmid( amysa ahaw d Csnwkh( ab snvdia waqw cama`gkdw- Md amynmyd( d waq qwdkbzhkgn gqwydw nikgkdmnkw- Mawya nsyked(zsayamiabdw nzsawamyns nw awykbnykpnw idwwaqw gqwydw ia qykhkvnd ab wqcwykyqkd ndikawah dskqmid ia zayshad-

^qkbkgnbamya( d ckdikawah qb wyas iagkidw esn|dw( zsdiqvkid n znsyks in sandamysa qbn `dmya ia gkidw esn|dw ,mds"bnhbamya qb had dq edsiqsn( ia dskeabpaeaynh dq nmkbnh+ a qb hgddh ,gdbd dbaynmdh a d aynmdh+( mn zsawamn iagnynhkwnidsaw( ~qa sawqhyn md wyas a mdehkgasdh ,ehkgaskmn+- D zsdgawwd ia zsdiqd wkbzhaw( bnw n dcyamd ia qb samikbamydahapnid mn gdmpaswd a qb zsdiqyd iamysdinw awzagk`kgnaw sa~qaskinw zds bdydsawbdiasmdw md wd yskpknkw-

Zds was zsdiqvkid n znsyks ia `dmyawsamdpnpkw( d ckdikawah md awy wqfakyd ndawedynbamyd( gdbd dw gdbcqwypakw `wwakw-Nhb ikwwd( nzsawamyn qb cnhnmd `npdspahmn abkwwd ia ik|kid ia gnscdmd ,GD3+ absahnd nd ikawah gdmpamgkdmnh a abkya bamdw

zdhqamyaw- Awwnw pnmyneamw( nikgkdmnin easnd ia abzsaedw md gnbzd znsn nzsdiqd inw dhanekmdwnw( saiawzasynsnb dkmyasawwa zahd ckdikawah-

N zdwwkckhkinia ia waq qwd gdmlagkiniawia d kmgkd id wgqhd 3:( a Sqidhzl Ikawah(kmpamyds id bdyds ~qa hapn waq mdba( f ngdmyabzhnpn- Md amynmyd( n ncqmimgkn iazayshad n cnk|d gqwyd d sahaedq n waeqmidzhnmd- D kmyasawwa zahd ckdikawah sawwqsekq mnawyaksn inw gskwaw id zayshad mdw nmdw >;5:-

Gdb n ahapnd ia zsadw idw gdbcqwypakw`wwakw( n cqwgn ia nhyasmnykpnw enmldqbzayd ab pskdw znwaw- Md Csnwkh( ldqpa d

zsdfayd Dpae( ia zsdiqd ia gdbcqwypakwn znsyks ia hadw paeaynkw- Nzawns idwsawqhynidw yagmkgnbamya wnykw`nyskdw( `dkncnmidmnid zahdw gqwydw- Dqysdw znwaw( ~qaynbcb wa ampdhpasnb mn cqwgn ianhyasmnykpnw samdppakw znsn wqcwykyqks dikawah( hapnsnb nw zaw~qkwnw niknmya-

N AqsdznN AqsdznN AqsdznN AqsdznN AqsdznD qwd id ckdikawah mn Aqsdzn wa kmkgkdq

mn qwyskn a mn @snmn( md gdbad in igninia >; gdbqb mn Aqsdzn d qwd id ikawah ab pagqhdw hapaw(gdbd nqydbpakw( gqfdwbdydsaw ia nhyn sdynd wd bnkw wamwpakw ndwgdbcqwypakw id ~qa n~qahaw iapagqhdw zawnidw-

3 Mn @snmn( lnpkn ~qdynw ia pdhqbaw ia ckdikawkwamydw ia kbzdwydw-


18/28

AMASEKN&ZAYSHAD >< WAYABCSD 3::0

7 N sammgkn `kwgnh iapa was ngdbdinin iamysd idw dsnbamydw idw znwaw( awzagknhbamya in~qahaw ~qa zasyamgab Vdmn id Aqsd( gdb yaydw a|zhgkydw ia i`kgkyw mnw gdmynw idw edpasmdw-

Ab 3::7( n Qmkd Aqsdzkn nidydq nIksaykpn 7:$3::7( znsn n zsdbdd id qwdia ckdgdbcqwypakw mdw ysnmwzdsyaw( abwqcwykyqkd nd ikawah a enwdhkmn- Awwnmdsbn( nzsdpnin nzw nmdw ia ikwgqwwda ab gdmwdmgkn gdb iksayskvaw nmyaskdsawia zdhykgn amaseykgn a nbckamynh(kmysdiqvkq baynw ia wqcwykyqkd iagdbcqwypah `wwkh- N znsyks ia 3::1( 3!

id gdmwqbd ia gdbcqwypakw nqydbdykpdwiapasknb was ia dskeab samdppah( gdbznynbnsaw gsawgamyaw( ny nykmeks 1(51!ab 3:>:- Gnca n gnin znw iawampdhpaswqnw zszsknw zdhykgnw znsn nykmeks nwbaynw( zdiamid dzyns zds ~qnh~qasckdgdbcqwypah6 aynmdh( ckdikawah( ckdew(AYCA dq ~qnh~qas dqysd ~qa pamln n wasiawampdhpkid-

D wdcsagqwyd gnqwnid zahd qwd idwckdgdbcqwypakw gdcasyd zahn sammgkn`kwgnh dq apamyqnhbamya zahn ikwzdwkd idgdmwqbkids ab znens bnkw zds qbgdbcqwypah samdppah-

Mdw AQN D iawampdhpkbamyd id ckdikawah mdw

Awynidw Qmkidw wa iaq ab qb skybd bnkwhamyd id ~qa mn Aqsdzn- Abcdsn zaw~qkwnida iawampdhpkid ab hncdsnyskdw a qmkpas"wkiniaw( n wqn nidd am`samydq ik`kgqhiniawab snvd id waq zsad- Gdb qbn zdhykgnyskcqyskn ia bamds yn|nd wdcsa dw gdb"cqwypakw( n kwamd nd ckdikawah md asnwq`kgkamya znsn pknckhkvns d waq gdmwqbd- Qbidw mkgldw ~qa d ckdikawah dgqzdq `dk mdw

zsdesnbnw ia qwd ia gdbcqwypakw nykpdw mnw `sdynw edpasmnbamynkw

N zsawwd ia zsdiqydsaw nesgdhnwinbamya zhnmynidsaw ia wdfn( gdmyskn nidd ia baikinw znsn pknckhkvns wD gnbkmld nidynid dk n gdmgawwd i

ikdw iksaydw ndw zsdiqydsaw a$dq gidsaw id zsdiqyd( gdmgaikidw zahd edàiasnh a zahdw awynidw ~qa sawdhpasd zsdesnbn-

Md CsnwkhMd CsnwkhMd CsnwkhMd CsnwkhMd CsnwkhMn ignin ia >;;:( sawwqsekq d kmya

wdcsa d ckdikawah ab qmkpaswkiniawwnw( d ~qa sawqhydq ab qbn saia dsenzahd Bkmkwyskd ia Gkmgkn a Yagmkmyasgbckd ia a|zaskmgknw a hkzaw~qkwn- Amysa dw bdykpdw nzsawiaàwn id ckdikawah awynpnb n saiqkbzdsynaw ia ikawah( d nzsdpakynbzdyamgknh nesgdhn csnwkhaksd a n abzsaedw- N saiawgdcasyn id yabn sawab ikpaswdw zsdfaydw ia hak znsn n wqgdbd gdbcqwypah a( md edpasmd àiBkmkwyskd ia Bkmnw a Amasekn zqb znzah ia bnkds sahapmgkn- Zds `k>>-:;5( ia 3::1( ikwzw wdcsa n kmysdid ckdikawah md Csnwkh( gdb n bkwyzqhwskn ia 3! md ikawah n znsyks iaia 1! ab 3:>7-

Md amynmyd( n ikàsamn ia za|kwyamya amysa d ikawah a d ckdikaw`kgnpn n nidd pdhqmyskn in nhyasamdppah( nkmin ~qa cama`kgknin zkmgkimgkn in GKIA- Gdb kwwd(zsadgqznd id edpasmd ia ~qa md lnpikwzdmkckhkinia id zsdiqyd znsn nyaiabnmin gdbzqhwskn n znsyks ia 3::1 zds b( ~qa( bqhykzhkgnid zahd

pdhqba ni~qkskid mdw hakhaw( sawqydynh ia QW) 309 bkhlaw-

Awwn ikàsamn was nsgnin zahdwbkidsaw( wa ldqpas d saznwwa znsn dwdq zahdw ngkdmkwynw inw sa`kmnska Sa`nz( qbn wdgkainia in Zaysdcsnw gSazwdh+( wa nw abzsawnw ncwdspasabnikgkdmnh- Ab ~qnh~qas qb idw gnwdwysnmwàsmgkn ia samin znsn dw zsdickdikawah a qbn zasin znsn n wdgkainiawy enwynmid bnkw znsn ni~qksks qbgdb n bawbn `kmnhkinia-

N ~qawyd wa dw cama`gkdw easkmysdiqd id ckdikawah gdbzamwgqwydw pnk nhb id awgdzd iawya yZdiasknb was ahamgnidw gdbd camaèasnd ia abzsaedw( d iawampdhpkbamyagmdhdekn( d nqbamyd ia nhyasmnykzskbamyd amaseykgd( n saiqd in abia enwaw gnqwnidsaw id aàkyd awyqdqysdw- Md wa zdia( gdmyqid( kemdsqb gqwyd a ~qa nheqb awy nsgnmid g

D ckdikawah was gdbzaykykpd gdb sahnd ndikawah gdmpamgkdmnh md `qyqsd zs|kbd4 Nwpnskpakw gsqgknkw iawwn kminend wd dgdbzdsynbamyd id zsad id zayshad a idwhadw paeaynkw ,zskmgkznh bnyskn"zskbn znsnd ckdikawah+-Lkwydskgnbamya( d zayshad yab wkid gdbas"gknhkvnid n qb zsad kmàskds nd idw hadwpaeaynkw( gdb a|gad ia csapaw zasdidw-Nw sagamyaw nhynw md zsad id zayshad( ~qa`kvasnb gdb ~qa nykmekwwa nw bnkdsawgdynaw mdbkmnkw f saekwysninw( bdwysnb nsazaykd iawwa azkwikd-Md es`kgd( l n apdhqd idw zsadw bamwnkwid had ia wdfn ,a|zdsynid zahd Csnwkh( @DCSkd Esnmia+ a id had ikawah ,kbzdsynid zahdCsnwkh( zsadw @DC+ iawia dqyqcsd ia 3:::-Md kmgkd( d ikawah awynpn ab qb znynbns

wqzaskds( bnw gnkq ny d gdbad ia 3::3(~qnmid znwwdq n wqcks ia `dsbn gdmwkwyamya-D had ia wdfn( zds wqn pav( saekwysdq qbzasdid ia nhyn zsnykgnbamya kmkmyassqzyn ny3::9( ~qnmid gaiaq a saydsmdq nd znynbnsia QW) 9:: zds b- Md kmnh ia 3::1( d zsadid ikawah wqzasdq d id had ia wdfn ia `dsbna|zsawwkpn ,bnkw ia 3:! ia ikàsamn+( znsnab waeqkin awysakyns n ikàsamn-Bnmykidw awwaw znynbnsaw( d ckdikawahzdiaskn was gdbzaykykpd( zdkw d waq zskmgkznh

kmwqbd d had paeaynh- Awykbn"wa ~qa nn~qkwkd ia bnyskn"zskbn sawzdmin zds


20/28

A MASEKN& Z AYSHAD 3: WAYABCSD 3::0

Awzagqhns wdcsa n apdhqd in iabnminzds amasekn qbn ynsa`n znsykgq"hnsbamya kbzdsynmya mawya bdbamydab ~qa wa dcwaspn d amgnsagkbamyd iawwakmwqbd md Csnwkh a md bqmid- Gdb qbnysnfayskn ia zsadw iaghkmnmya mdw nmdw >;;;:( d zsad id zayshad ahapdq"wa bnkwia 30:! ia >;;; znsn g( nykmekmid ~qnwaQW) 71 zds cnsskh mn bikn idw zskmgkznkwzsdiqydsaw bqmiknkw- N amasekn ahyskgncnsnyn( ~qa `dk qb idw `qminbamydw ingdbzaykykpkinia a|yasmn csnwkhaksn zds nmdw( f md a|kwya bnkw- N ynsk`n bikn idwgdmwqbkidsaw kmiqwysknkw pab wa ahapnmid ia`dsbn a|zsawwkpn mdw hykbdw nmdw( yamidnykmekid qb znynbns zs|kbd n QW) 0: zds

BU$l ab 3::1- Awwa znynbns `dk wqzasnidnzamnw md zasdid amysa >;;9 a >;;: nmdw ,3::0"3:>1+( ~qa awydiksaynbamya nwwdgkninw nd gsawgkbamydiawwnw agdmdbknw- Nw awykbnykpnw ia apdhqd

in iabnmin zasbkyab bamwqsns ~qnh iapawas d nqbamyd in dàsyn bqmiknh ia amasekznsn ~qa md lnfn awgnwwav a wqcwa~aahapnd idw zsadw mdw zs|kbdw nmdZasbkyab ynbcb ysnns nw baynw ia easndia amasekn ~qa iapab was zaswaeqkinw znsnbnmyas dq nbzhkns d esnq ia wq`kgkmgknzsdiqd csnwkhaksn-

Gsawgkbamyd agdmbkgd

Nw zsdfaaw ia gsawgkbamyd agdmbkznsn dw zasdidw 3::0"3:>1 dsnb sanhkvninwznsn qbn nbdwysn ia >:0 znwaw( qykhkvnmnw pnskpakw zsdiqyd kmyasmd csqyd ,nfqw znskinia id zdias ia gdbzsn+( awyd~qa iagnzkynh ,ab QW) gdmwynmyaw ia 3:::+ a `d

N iabnmin ia amasekn ab 3:>1@asmnmid Ensgkn(Idqyds ab Agdmdbkn zahn QWZ( zsdàwwds in @EP a gdmwqhyds in @EP Zsdfaydw

Sdeskd Gwns ia Wdqvn(Idqyds ab Agdmdbkn zahn @EP"ANAWZ( zsdàwwds in @EP a gdmwqhyds in @EP Zsdfaydw

G DMWQBD

@dmya6 Cnhnmd Amaseykgd Mngkdmnh 3::1-

Es`kgd >- Zsad bikd id zayshad( QW) zds cnsskh

@dmya6 \\\- Bikn idw waeqkmyaw zsadw6 Wnqik Nsncknm( Hkely"79NZK? Ksnmknm( Hkely"79 NZK? Hkc{nm( Aw Wkias"75 NZK? Mkeasknm( Cdmm{Hkely"75 NZK? Kmidmawknm( Bkmnw"79 NZK? Pamavqahnm( Ykn FqnmnHkely? Ba|kgd( Bn{n"33 NZK? Qmkyai Okmeidb( Csamy Chami"7


21/28

AMASEKN&ZAYSHAD 3> WAYABCSD 3::0

ia ysncnhld ia gnin qb idw znwaw- Dw inidwlkwyskgdw `dsnb dcykidw id Zamm UdshiYnchaw 0->( nyqnhkvnidw gdb km`dsbnaw idUdshi Iapahdzbamy Kmikgnydsw 3::1( idCnmgd Bqmiknh-

D bydid ia zsdfad( ~qa awy cnwanid

mn iagdbzdwkd inw yn|nw ia gsawgkbamydagdmbkgd idw znwaw( znsya in ysnfaysknawzasnin ia ngqbqhnd ia gnzkynh( inikmbkgn iabdes`kgn a in apdhqd inzsdiqykpkinia ab gnin znw znsn zsdfayns napdhqd `qyqsn id ZKC- N ngqbqhnd iagnzkynh iazamia in `dsbnd ia zdqznmnidbwykgn a idw `hq|dw kmyasmngkdmnkw iagnzkynh- N pnskpah iabdes`kgn iazamia inysnfayskn lkwyskgn ia gsawgkbamydzdzqhngkdmnh( n ~qnh yapa zds gdmwa~mgknwd ampahlagkbamyd in zdzqhnd a n saiqdinw yn|nw ia a|znmwd in `dsn ia ysncnhld-N apdhqd in zsdiqykpkinia gdmwkiasn dwa`akydw id zsdesawwd ygmkgd( id nqbamyd iaawgnhn ia zsdiqd a in apdhqd ina`kgkmgkn ygmkgn inw agdmdbknw- Wd ydinwzsdfaaw cnwaninw ab bdiahdw awynywykgdw~qa gdmwkiasnb nw ysnfaysknw zds bnkw ia 1:nmdw ia gnin qbn iawwnw pnskpakw-

N Yncahn > nzsawamyn nw awykbnykpnw iagsawgkbamyd agdmbkgd in qmkd Aqsdzkn(idw znwaw id Mn`yn( in Nbskgn Gamysnh aGnskca( in Nbskgn id Wqh( in wkn a Dganmkn(in `skgn a id Dskamya Bikd( cab gdbd nwia nheqmw znwaw wahagkdmnidw a idgsawgkbamyd agdmbkgd zdmiasnid inw >:0agdmdbknw( nw ~qnkw `dsnb iawkemninw gdbdBqmid- Wd nzsawamynidw idkw gamskdw6 dzskbaksd( glnbnid ia cwkgd( cnwakn"wa mnzsabkwwn ia ~qa md iapa lnpas mdpdwnqbamydw sankw id zsad in amasekn mdgdmya|yd bqmiknh? d waeqmid( bnkw dykbkwyn(znsya in kikn ia ~qa lnpas qbn sapaswdin yamimgkn ia amgnsagkbamyd in amasekn(d ~qa zasbkyks saiqd ia gqwydw a(zdsynmyd( d nqbamyd in zsdiqykpkinia ab

ydidw znwaw-Dcwaspn"wa ~qa md gamskd cwkgd(

iqsnmya d zskbaksd zasdid ,3::1"3:>:+( nzsdfad ia gsawgkbamyd agdmbkgd bqmiknh ia 3(;5! nd nmd- Awykbn"wa ~qa dw znwawid Dskamya Bikd nzsawamynsd qbn yn|n iagsawgkbamyd agdmbkgd ia 7(Wqh ,7(:3! n-n-+( n `skgn ,3(9>! n-n-+ a n qmkdAqsdzkn ,3(>;! n-n-+- Nkmin mawwa zskbaksdzasdid( iawyngnb"wa nw yn|nw ia gsawgkbamydin Gdskn ,9(39! n-n-+ a in Glkmn ,1(>1!n-n-+- Mnw Nbskgnw( awykbn"wa ~qa Csnwkh aAwynidw Qmkidw gsawgasd 7(30! a 7(70! nd

nmd( sawzagykpnbamya- Mn Nbskgn Hnykmn( dznw gdb bahlds iawabzamld awzasnid dGlkha( gqfd gsawgkbamyd zsdfaynid ia 9(:1!nd nmd znsn d zasdid 3::1"3:>:-

wd km`askdsaw w dcwaspninw md zNbskgn Hnykmn( n a|gad d Glkgsawgkbamyd bikd nmqnh iapa `kgzdmyd zasgamyqnh ncnk|d id pask`kg~km~mkd nmyaskds-

Znsn d zasdid 3:>:"3:>1( n yn|n i

gsawgkbamyd bqmiknh ahapn"wa hkeznsn 7(:>! nd nmd md gamskd cwkggsawgkbamyd ngqbqhnid ia nzsd|kbbamya >0! md zasdid- N Gdskn nkm

Mdyn"wa ~qa d gsawgkbamyd agdmbkgdbqmiknh zsdfaynid md gamskd cwkgd znsn dzasdid 3::1"3:>: hkeaksnbamya wqzaskdsnd dcwaspnid amysa 3::: a 3::1 znsn nesnmia bnkdskn idw znwaw ~qa gdbzab nnbdwysn- Iqnw kbzdsynmyaw a|gaaw wd nGlkmn a n Gdskn id Wqh( gqfnw yn|nw biknwia gsawgkbamyd agdmbkgd amysa 3::1 a 3:>:

znw ~qa nzsawamyn bnkds yn|n ia gsawnmqnh( ia 9(3:!- A d Glkha qb idw zhnykmd"nbaskgnmdw gdb bahlds iawabgdb yn|n bikn ia gsawgkbamyd nmq7(;1!- Awykbn"wa ~qa d Csnwkh gsaqbn yn|n ia 7(3>! nd nmd a( zdsynmngqbqhns qb gsawgkbamyd ia >5(1!zasdid 3:>:"3:>1-

Yncahn > " Yn|nw biknw nmqnkw ia gsawgkbamyd agdmbkgd(3:::"3:>1

@dmya6 @EP Zsdfaydw- Mdyn6 Nw yn|nw ia gsawgkbamyd baiab n apdhqd id ZKC ab QW)gdmwynmyaw nfqwynidw znskinia id zdias ia gdbzsn in bdain-

Gamskd cwkgd Gamskd dykbkwySaekaw$Znwaw 3:::"3::1 3::1"3:>: 3:>:"3:>1 3::1"3:>: 3:>:"3:>Qmkd Aqsdzkn 3(>3! 3(>;! 3(3

Es"Csaynmln 3(>9! 3(3>! 3(35! 3(3(((;9! 7(:>! 7(3>!

MN@YN 7(30! 7(77! 7(9>! 9(5>! 1(:7!AQN 7(3;! 7(70! 7(91! 9(55! 1(:;!

Nbskgn Gamysnh a Gnskca 7(:3! 7(>0! 7(;0! 9(>; Nbskgn id Wqh 3(;5! 7(:

Basgdwqh 3(;9! 7(:;! 7(:3! 7(30! 7(3>! 9(99! 9(57!

Glkha 9(3>! 9(:1! 7(;1! 1(>0! 1(35! wkn a Dganmkn 7(9

Fnzd 3(9:! 3(95! 3(11! 7(57! 7(;;!Glkmn 0(50! 1(>1! 9(:9! 1(7! 9(>7! 9(7

`skgn 3(7! 3(91! 7(97! 7(00!Dskamya Bikd 7(


22/28


Md gamskd dykbkwyn( ab snvd in bnkdsikwzdmkckhkinia a id bamds zsad in amasekn(nw agdmdbknw amgdmysnb qb nbckamya bnkw`npdspah nd gsawgkbamyd- N agdmdbkn bqm"iknh gsawga yn|n ia 9(>0! nd nmd( amysa3::1 a 3:>:( a ia 9(91! nd nmd mdw nmdwwaeqkmyaw- Mdya"wa ~qa ydidw znwaw nzsawam"

ynb iawabzamld bahlds md gamskd dykbkwyn-Ab yasbdw sahnykpdw( dw znwaw bnkw cama`k"gknidw zahn zdyamgknh saiqd id zsad inamasekn wd nw agdmdbknw bnkw iawampdhpkinw(

gsawgkbamyd mdsya"nbaskgnmnw ynbcb wdwqzaskdsaw ~qa n~qahaw zsapkwydw znsn n yn|nbikn bqmiknh ia gsawgkbamyd agdmbkgd-

Gsawgkbamyd id gdmwqbd-Gsawgkbamyd id gdmwqbd-Gsawgkbamyd id gdmwqbd-Gsawgkbamyd id gdmwqbd-Gsawgkbamyd id gdmwqbd-

N Yncahn 3 bdwysn nw zsdfaaw id gdmwqbd

ia amasekn idw bawbdw >:0 znwaw mdwzasdidw 3::1"3:>: a 3:>:"3:>1(nwwdgkninw n gnin qb idw idkw gamskdw iagsawgkbamyd agdmbkgd( nwwkb gdbd d

Yncahn 3 " Yn|nw biknw nmqnkw ia gsawgkbamyd idgdmwqbd ia amasekn( 3:::"3:>1

@dmya6 @EP Zsdfaydw- Mdyn6 Yn|nw ia gsawgkbamyd id gdmwqbd ia amasekn ab Yasnfnqhaw-

Gamskd cwkgd Gamskd dykbkwynSaekaw$Znwaw 3:::"3::1 3::1"3:>: 3:>:"3:>1 3::1"3:>: 3:>:"3:>1Qmkd Aqsdzkn 3(5

Es"Csaynmln 3(51! 3(MN@YN 7(9;! 7(03! 7(50! 9(17! 9(! 7(01! 7( Nbskgn Gamysnh a Gnskca 7(90! 7(10! 7(00! 9(>7! 9(71! Nbskgn id Wqh 7(35! 7(97! 7(17! 9(>1! 9(93!Basgdwqh 7(3;! 7(95! 7(11! 9(37! 9(1>!

Csnwkh 7(9:! 7(1

Glkha 9(>3! 9(>:! 9(>7! 9(7! 7(;3! 9(!

`skgn 3(59! 3(! 7(57! 7(! 9(01!

~qa abzsaenb amasekn ia `dsbn bnkwkmyamwkpn ~qa dw znwaw ab iawampdhpkbamyd-Dw znwaw in qmkd Aqsdzkn a d Fnzdnzsawamynb( md gamskd dykbkwyn( yn|nw iagsawgkbamyd 1:! wqzaskdsaw w id gamskdcwkgd- Dw aàkydw wdcsa nw yn|nw ia

> Znsn pskdw( znwaw dw inidw ia 3::9 a 3::1 wd zsdfaynidw-

kmyamwkinia ia qwd ia gnzkynh a yzsdpamkamyaw in bawbn cnwa ia km`dabzsaenin znsn zsdfayns d gsawgkbagdmbkgd bqmiknh-

Nw zsdfaaw id gamskd cwkgd k~qa d gdmwqbd bqmiknh ia amasekn

gsawgas n qbn yn|n bikn ia 7(01! nd nKwwd wkemk`kgn ~qa( nd `kmnh iagdmdbkn bqmiknh( ab snvd id gsawgawzasnid md gamskd( gdmwqbks 9bnkw ia amasekn id ~qa gdmwqbkn ab qbn iabnmin ~qa zds wk w kbza esniawn`kdw a|znmwd in dàsyn bqmik

Mdya"wa ~qa n esnmia iabnmin amasekn znsn dw zs|kbdw iav nmdw znwaw in wkn a Dganmkn( id Dskama idw znwaw id Mn`yn- Znwaw gdbGlkmn( Glkha a Awynidw Qmkidw gamasekn ahyskgn n yn|nw nmqnkw wznsn `nvas `samya nd gsawgkbamyd agzsapkwyd ia wqnw agdmdbknw-

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Md gamskd dykbkwyn( d gsawgkbiabnmin zds amasekn nkmin bnkds- Nbiknw bqmiknkw ia gsawgkbamyd id g

ia amasekn nykmeab 9(9>! nd nmd a 9nd nmd znsn dw zasdidw 3::1"3:>: a 33:>1( sawzagykpnbamya-

Mawwa gamskd ia a|znmwd ngahadàsyn ia amasekn( gdb saiqd id zsaznwaw gdbd n Glkmn gdmwaeqksd skybd ngamyqnid ia gsawgkbamyd agda id gdmwqbd dcwaspnidw mdw hykbD Csnwkh ynbcb waskn cama`kgknid gmskd6 waq gsawgkbamyd id gdmwqbd ia 9(1! nd nmd md zasdid 3::1"3:>1-

iawabzamld dcwaspnid> md zasdid 3:::"3::1- Znsn n sanhkvnd ia ynkw zsdfaaw(`dsnb qykhkvnidw inidw ia gdmwqbd iaamasekn dskqmidw id Udshi IapahdzbamyKmikgnydsw 3::1( id Cnmgd Bqmiknh( akm`dsbnaw id gsawgkbamyd agdmbkgd a in


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Dw iawn`kdw znsn dw waydsaw ia zsdiqdia amasekn idw znwaw wd esnmiaw- Gdbd `dkikyd( d gdmwqbd bqmiknh ia amasekn iapagsawgas amysa 7(01! nd nmd a 9(17! nd nmdmdw zs|kbdw iav nmdw( n iazamias inwgdmikaw ia dàsyn- Md Csnwkh( awwagsawgkbamyd in iabnmin iapa wa wkyqns amysa

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d gsawgkbamyd id gdmwqbd ia amasekn( ia

7(70! nd nmd( dk wqzasnid zahd gsawgkbamydin dàsyn kmyasmn( ia 7(95! nd nmd- Awwaiawabzamld saiqvkq n iazamimgknamaseykgn id znw( nd bawbd yabzd ab ~qaeasdq n amasekn magawwskn znsn diawampdhpkbamyd kmiqwysknh a n qscnmkvnd-Nedsn( znsn wqwyamyns qb gsawgkbamyd

Gsawgkbamyd bqmiknh id gdmwqbd ia amasekn( ! nd nmd( 3

Csnwkh yas ~qa nbzhkns wqn dàsyn ia amasekn mqbskybd nkmin bnkds( zds n~qk pkwyd wdbamya mdwnmdw >;5:-

agdmbkgd ia 7(3! nd nmd( d Znw ya

am`samyns n ynsa`n ia a|znmiks wqn damasekn n qb skybd bnkw ngahasnid iàv mdw hykbdw 71 nmdw- A( znsn wgsawgkbamyd agdmbkgd iawafnid( ind nmd( d Csnwkh yas ~qa nbzhkns wia amasekn mqb skybd nkmin bnkds( zdpkwyd wdbamya mdw nmdw >;5:-


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I AWYN^QAWS AEQHNYSKDW

AMASEKN&ZAYSHAD 39 NEDWYD3::0

Zsdesnbnw iaA`kgkmgkn Amaseyk

Nw abzsawnw ia ikwyskcqkd amasekn ahyskgn iapab kmpawnmqnhbamya ab zsdesnbnw iaa`kgkmgkn amaseykgn( nzsdpzahn nqydskinia saeqhnidsn( qbn

zasgamyneab in sagakyn dzasn"gkdmnh h~qkin- Awyn zasgamy`dk saiqvkin( zahn Hak ;;;>$::(znsn :(31! in sagakyn( d ~qaiapaskn was nzhkgnid n znsyks iawnmd ia 3::0- Amysaynmyd( Zsdfaia Hak ab ikwgqwwd mn Gbnsn iIazqynidw zsap ~qa ynhzasgamyqnh gdmykmqa n was `kab :(1! in sagakyn dzasngkdmnhh~qkin( ny d nmd ia 3:>:- D zsd" fayd f `dk nzsdpnid zahn Gdbkwwia Gdmwykyqkd a Fqwykn a ia inmkn in Gbnsn idw Iazqynidw-

N Sawdhqd Mdsbnykpn 31( i3$3::0 ,znsn hkmlnw iaysnmwbkwwd+ a :3$3::0 ,znsn gdbzsn ia amasekn mdpn+ a Niamidw a GdbqmkgnidwSahapnmyaw abkykidw zahn NMAAH- Ynkw hakhaw awyd zsapkwydw md mdpd bdiahd id

wayds ahyskgd( dcfayd ia sapkwd( a pkwnb ensnmyks d wqzskbamyd in iabnmin iaamasekn a wqn nia~qnin ysnmwbkwwd ndw ikpaswdw basgnidw gdmwqbkidsaw-

Sapkwd Ynsk`sknAwyd wamid sanhkvninw nqikmgknw zchkgnw a awyncahagkidw gskyskdw a mdsbnwygmkgnw znsn n sanhkvnd inw sapkwaw ynsk`sknw inw abzsawnw ia ikwyskcqkd aynbcb ia ysnmwbkwwd ia amasekn ahyskgn-

Dw zsdgawwdw ia sapkwd ynsk`skn( zsapkwydw mn haekwhnd id wayds( pkwnbawyncahagas bagnmkwbdw znsn n kmgdszdsnd mnw ynsk`nw ia enmldw ia a`kgkmgknabzsawnsknh a gdsskeks apamyqnkw sazasgqwwaw `kmnmgaksnw ~qa zdwwnb n`ayns d

pnhds inw ynsk`nw( iqsnmya d zsnvd ia iqsnd inw gdmgawwaw-Ynkw zsdgawwdw ia sapkwd( md gnwd inw ikwyskcqkidsnw( wa `ns f zahn waeqminpav- Ikpaswnw mdsbnw ygmkgnw gdbzab d bnsgd haenh n was dcwaspnid zahnwabzsawnw mawya zsdgawwd ia sapkwd ynsk`skn( ~qa wa sanhkvn zaskdikgnbamya aik`asa id sanfqwya nmqnh inw ynsk`nw- Ysnynb in bnyskn( amysa dqysdw idgqbamydwsaeqhnyskdw( nw Sawdhqaw 01$3::0( 05$3::0( 033$3::1-


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Awyn wad nzsawamyn nw zskmgkznkw wskaw awynywykgnw ia easnd a gdmwqbd ia amasekn ahyskggdbd nw ia zsdiqd a gdmwqbd ia zayshad a waqw iaskpnidw a id hgddh- Bq`dsmagas qb awznd ia `gkh gdmwqhyn znsn d ngdbznmlnbamyd in apdhqd nmqnh id wayds ysnyn"wa n~qk ia a|zds nw awykbnykpnw ia zsdfaaw ia amasekn ahyskgn znsn nw ik`asamyaw ghnzayshad a ia nheqmw ia waqw iaskpnidw a id hgddh ny d nmd ia 3::


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cadernos fgv projetos nº 1 - energia & petróleo

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