fórum 2016 - apresentação do “latin america online retail forecast, 2015 to 2020”

eCommerce Trends and Outlook for Latin America

LILY VARON@lilyvaron

© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 2

We work with business and technology leaders to develop customer-obsessed strategies that drive growth.

© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 3

Agenda

› An overview of eCommerce in Latin America

› A closer look at Brazil, Argentina and Mexico

› Key Takeaways

© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 4

Agenda

› An overview of eCommerce in Latin America

› A closer look at Brazil, Argentina and Mexico

› Key Takeaways

14.3%

8.3%

9.4%

eCommerce is growing globally.

United States

Latin America

Western Europe

Asia Pacific11.2%

Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (US), Q4 2015 Update; Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 to 2020 (Latin America); Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (Western Europe), Q4 2015 Update; Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (Asia Pacfic)

CAGR

CAGR

CAGR

CAGR

The population is relatively young

Argentina & Brazil 31Chile 34

Colombia 29Mexico 28

Peru 27

US 38UK 40

China 37

Japan 46

Source: "The World Factbook," CIA

The middle class has grown substantially

2015 GDP per capita is generally higher than many

large markets in Asia

There is significant online buyer growth potential in Latin America

Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecasts, 2015 To 2020

Source: “The Evolution Of Global eCommerce Markets” Forrester report

eCommerce markets evolve in four phases.

Traditional retailers play a key role in driving eCommerce

Mobile commerce

hasn’t taken off

like in other markets

$13.1B$4.8B

$2.9B

Brazil’s online sales are nearly double those for Mexico & Argentina

MexicoArgentina

Brazilcombined.

© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 13

Online retail sales are still a small percentage of total retail sales

2012 2013 2014 20150%

1%

2%

3%

4%

ArgentinaBrazilMexico

Source:Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (Latin America)

© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 14

Agenda

› An overview of eCommerce in Latin America

› A closer look at Brazil, Argentina and Mexico

› Key Takeaways

Brazil

© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 16

Brazil’s eCommerce revenues will continue to grow through the recession

$13.1 $11.7 $12.8 $14.1$15.7

$17.9

Total online retail spending (US$ billions)

60.354.249.044.440.437.0

Forecast

2015 20172016 2018 2019 2020

Total online buyers (millions)

CAGR from

2015 to 2020: 6.5%

Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (Latin America)

© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 17

Consumers are buying across a wide variety of categories online in Brazil

2010: $7.5B

Phase 365%

Phase 411%

Other24%

2020: $18B

Phase 355%

Phase 432%

Other13%

Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast (Latin America)

© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 18

Some key KPIs shed light on how Brazil differs from other markets

Source: “2014 State of eCommerce Brazil”, a joint survey conducted by Forrester Research and E-Commerce Brasil

Help us refresh this data!

Import restrictions challenge global brands

© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 22

Argentina is the 2nd largest eCommerce market in Latin America

$4.8 $4.2 $5.0 $5.7 $6.4 $7.0Total online retail spending (US$ billions)

18.718.017.015.914.4

12.6

Forecast

2015 20172016 2018 2019 2020

Total online buyers (millions)

CAGR from

2015 to 2020: 8.0%

Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (Latin America)

© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 23

Early stage categories continue to dominate online sales

2015: $4.7B

Phase 365%

Phase 418%

Other16%

Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast (Latin America)

Even so, retailers are beginning to offer advanced omnichannel offerings

© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 26

Mexico’s eCommerce market is small today but shows longer-term potential

$2.9 $3.2 $3.8 $4.4 $5.1 $6.0Total online retail spending (US$ billions)

25.521.6

18.315.6

13.411.6

Forecast

2015 20172016 2018 2019 2020

Total online buyers (millions)

CAGR from

2015 to 2020:

15.4%

Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast, 2015 To 2020 (Latin America)

© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 27

Early stage categories dominate online sales in Mexico

2015: $3B

Phase 364%

Phase 417%

Other19%

Source: Forrester Research Online Retail Forecast (Latin America)

Consumers need tangible evidence they should trust online retailers

© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 30

Mexico’s potential has spurred global brands into action

© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 31

Agenda

› An overview of eCommerce growth in Latin America

› A closer look at Brazil, Argentina and Mexico

› Key Takeaways

eCommerce in Mexico is set to grow significantly in the years to come

If Argentina’s import restrictions ease up, it will spur eCommerce growth (and more international competition)

Despite economic crisis, eCommerce in Brazil will continue to grow

© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 33

Key takeaways

› Understand which eCommerce maturity phase each market is in

› Establish a level of trust with consumers in earlier-stage markets

› Implement key eCommerce features in more mature markets

© 2016 Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited 34

And for online retailers operating in Brazil› The value and convenience of the

online channel will still draw shoppers› Ensure search and display features

highlight promotions and discounts› Be explicit about how you help

consumers save money› Turn attention to customer retention

forrester.com

Thank you

Lily Varón+1 617.613.6388lvaron@forrester.com

@lilyvaron