a fábrica do futuro.pdf
TRANSCRIPT
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7/29/2019 A Fbrica do Futuro.pdf
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NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show
October 2011 [email protected]
Dick MorleyOctober 2011
Who Am I?Who Am I?
Skier
Physics
PLC
NCMS
Harley-Davidson
25 childrenAngel
Machinist
My office
My commute
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7/29/2019 A Fbrica do Futuro.pdf
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NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show
October 2011 [email protected]
The Real ProblemsThe Real Problems
Global competition
Time to market
Cost
Rapid growth
Continuous rapid
tech change
ProblemsProblems
Fashion / fads
Management demands /instant gratification
Change always
Blockers
Open / closed
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NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show
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Technology Predictions:Technology Predictions:19541954 Popular MechanicsPopular Mechanics MagazineMagazine
Scientists from the RANDCorp have created thismodel to illustrate how ahome computer couldlooklike in the year 2004.However, the neededtechnology will not beeconomically feasible forthe average home. Withteletype interface and theFortran language, thecomputer will be easy touse.
Copyright 2007 Rockwell Automation, Inc. All rights reserved.
PredictionsPredictions
Japanese
1901
80 / 20
1901 / .593 (+)1901 / .593 (+)
Worldwide wireless telephone
Worldwide color photo instanttransfer
Rise of China, Japan & Africa
Round-the-world trip in 7days, global travel foreveryone
Warship in air
Air conditioner
Advanced voice transmitter,love talk over 10 miles
Picture telephone
Shopping by picture telephone
Electricity as fuel
Bullet train 2.5 hrs. betweenTokyo and Kobe
Electric needle treatment w/opain or medication
Automobiles w/o horse
Advanced education
Countrywide electricitydistribution
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7/29/2019 A Fbrica do Futuro.pdf
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NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show
October 2011 [email protected]
1901 / .5931901 / .593 (cont).(cont).
Green Sahara
Extermination of flies & fleas
Cultivation by electricity oftropical plants in Greenland!
Worldwide railroad network
Natural disaster control
Extinct wild animals
Rubber tire trains in the airand underground
Everyone taller than 6 ft.
Future HistoryFuture History
I think there is a world market for maybe 5 computers.
Thomas Watson, 1943
Computers in the future may weigh no more than 5 tons.
Popular Mechanics, 1949
But what is it good for?
Engineer at IBM commenting on the microchip, 1968
There is no reason anyone would want a computer in theirhome.
Ken Olson, 1977
640k ought to be enough for anybody.
Bill Gates, 1981
Predicting the FuturePredicting the Future
Weather forecasting
Science fiction
Delphi survey
Groundhog
Wild cards
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Cycles of GrowthCycles of Growth
1995 Predictions1995 Predictions
Japan as a financial center
Moore marches on
Gene splicing and dicing in wide use
NA a single economic entity
Mass production becomes digital and POS
Nuclear power returnsEducation in turmoil
Two hours to anywhere
CommunicationCommunication
RF
WWW
IT revolution
Bandwidth
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NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show
October 2011 [email protected]
Bandwidth (BW)Bandwidth (BW) Time (PowerTime (Power
Law)Law)BW
Low HighRefresh
FedEx
CNN
WWW
Process
Reduce the NeedReduce the Need
iPad
Predictive
Autonomous
Industrial Bus HierarchyIndustrial Bus Hierarchy
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NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show
October 2011 [email protected]
HistoryHistory ComplexityComplexity
Relays
Transistors
Minis
PLCs
Cells
MES / MRP
Tablets
States vs. behavior
Costs / ComplexityCosts / Complexity
HistoryCosts
Old
Technologies
Complexity
Counterproductive BusinessCounterproductive Business
PracticesPracticesLowering costs is the key toprosperity
Mass production lowerscosts
Corporate culture modifieshuman behavior
Management scienceexists?
The business book
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7/29/2019 A Fbrica do Futuro.pdf
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NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show
October 2011 [email protected]
SimulationSimulation
Stagger through life
Virtual into realMy barn
Models and simulationPredictive
Postdictive
Understanding
Fun
EnergyEnergy
Innovations ComingInnovations Coming
Grid computing
Wireless / batteries
Virtual bandwidth
Quantum communications
Femto
CAD / CAM
3D mfg.
Point of sale processes
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NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show
October 2011 [email protected]
Wild CardsWild Cards
No landline phonesNo landline phones all uplink satellitesall uplink satellites
59% of USA not working in
large companies
More SFI orgs for ed
Global population dispersion
Permanent Antarctic residents
PC reversal insurance andcrime not solved by wishes
Market lowers to6000 and then to
30,000 equiv in 2020
NASDAQ acceptsNASDAQ accepts
foreign companies...foreign companies...
solicits themsolicits them
Engineeringproductivitydoubles...notan art formanymore
Semiconductor
foundries at
individual
companies
Mechatronicsgains respect
Smartskin planes
Ink jet printed autos
for custom paint jobs
Spamming
Becomes positive
Beyond MMXXBeyond MMXX
Molecular computing
Quantum dots
ArtificialLife
Evolution
Behavior
Intelligence
What Manufacturers NeedWhat Manufacturers Need
Customer Base
Cost reduction?
Unfair advantage
Time to market
10x tech
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October 2011 [email protected]
Challenges to ManufacturingChallenges to Manufacturing
Culture inhibitions
Top-down organizations
Fads and fashion
Hiring the obedient
Tiger BeetlesTiger Beetles
Run and stop
Info bandwidth
Bio model
Elmer / Bugs / binoculars
The TechnologyThe Technology
More impact than politicians
Has legs
Work defines tech changes work
Invention is the mother of necessity!Invention is the mother of necessity!
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October 2011 [email protected]
YouYou
Must be able to innovate, adapt and understandyour customer
Must communicate with the user/owner
Must use left and right brain
Must have lots of luck
SummarySummary
Is Morley a nut?
Wake up call
Invention is the mother of success
Goals are the emergent property of process
The only way
to create wealth
is with new
technology!
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7/29/2019 A Fbrica do Futuro.pdf
12/12
NEI Intl Industrial Conference & Show
October 2011 morley@barn org