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UNIVERSIDADE DE SO PAULOESCOLA DE ENGENHARIA DE SO CARLOS

PROGRAMA DE PS-GRADUAO EM HIDRULICA E SANEAMENTOExame de Seleo de Mestrado 2011

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Gulf Oil Spill Is Bad, but How Bad?WASHINGTON The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is bad no one would dispute it.

But just how bad?

Some experts have been quick to predict apocalypse, painting grim pictures of 1,000 miles ofirreplaceable wetlands and beaches at risk, fisheries damaged for seasons, fragile species wipedout and a region and an industry economically crippled for years.

President Obama has called the spill a potentially unprecedented environmental disaster. Andsome scientists have suggested that the oil might hitch a ride on the loop current in the gulf,

bringing havoc to the Atlantic Coast.

Yet the Deepwater Horizon blowout is not unprecedented, nor is it yet among the worst oilaccidents in history. And its ultimate impact will depend on a long list of interlinked variables,including the weather, ocean currents, the properties of the oil involved and the success orfailure of the frantic efforts to stanch the flow and remediate its effects.

As one expert put it, this is just the beginning of the game. No one knows the final score.

The ruptured well, currently pouring an estimated 210,000 gallons of oil a day into the gulf,could flow for years and still not begin to approach the 36 billion gallons of oil spilled byretreating Iraqi forces when they left Kuwait in 1991. It is not yet close to the magnitude oftheIxtoc I blowout in the Bay of Campeche in Mexico in 1979, which spilled an estimated 140million gallons of crude before the gusher could be stopped.

And it will have to get much worse before it approaches the impact of the Exxon Valdez accidentof 1989, which contaminated 1,300 miles of largely untouched shoreline and killed tens ofthousands of seabirds, otters and seals along with 250 eagles and 22 killer whales.

No one, not even the oil industrys most fervent apologists, is making light of this accident. Thecontaminated area of the gulf continues to spread, and oil has been found in some of the fragilemarshes at the tip of Louisiana. The beaches and coral reefs of the Florida Keys could be hit if

the slickis captured by the gulfs clockwise loop current.

But on Monday, the wind was pushing the slick in the opposite direction, away from the current.The worst effects of the spill have yet to be felt. And if efforts to contain the oil are even partlysuccessful and the weather cooperates, the worst could be avoided.

Right now what people fear has not materialized, said Edward B. Overton, professor emeritusof environmental science at Louisiana State University and an expert on oil spills. People have
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/o/oil_spills/gulf_of_mexico_2010/index.html?inline=nyt-classifierhttp://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/o/barack_obama/index.html?inline=nyt-perhttp://www.nytimes.com/info/oil/?inline=nyt-classifierhttp://invertebrates.si.edu/mms/reports/IXTOC_exec.pdfhttp://invertebrates.si.edu/mms/reports/IXTOC_exec.pdfhttp://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/e/exxon_valdez_oil_spill_1989/index.html?inline=nyt-classifierhttp://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/e/exxon_valdez_oil_spill_1989/index.html?inline=nyt-classifierhttp://invertebrates.si.edu/mms/reports/IXTOC_exec.pdfhttp://invertebrates.si.edu/mms/reports/IXTOC_exec.pdfhttp://www.nytimes.com/info/oil/?inline=nyt-classifierhttp://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/o/barack_obama/index.html?inline=nyt-perhttp://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/o/oil_spills/gulf_of_mexico_2010/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier


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the idea of an Exxon Valdez, with a sticky, smelly black tide looming over the horizon waiting towash ashore. I do not anticipate this will happen down here unless things get a lot worse.

Other experts said that while the potential for catastrophe remained, there were reasons toremain guardedly optimistic.

The sky is not falling, said Quenton R. Dokken, a marine biologist and the executive director ofthe Gulf of Mexico Foundation, a conservation group in Corpus Christi, Tex. Weve certainlystepped in a hole and were going to have to work ourselves out of it, but it isnt the end of theGulf of Mexico.

Engineers said the type of oil pouring out is lighter than the heavy crude spilled by the ExxonValdez, evaporates more quickly and is easier to burn. It also appears to respond to the use ofdispersants, which break up globs of oil and help them sink. The oil is still capable of significantdamage, particularly when it is churned up with water and forms a sort of mousse that floats andcan travel long distances.

Jacqueline Savitz, a senior scientist at Oceana, a nonprofit environmental group, said that muchof the damage was already taking place far offshore and out of sight of surveillance aircraft andresearch vessels.

Some people are saying, It hasnt gotten to shore yet so its all good, she said. But a lot of

animals live in the ocean, and a spill like this becomes bad for marine life as soon as it hits thewater. You have endangered sea turtles, the larvae of bluefin tuna, shrimp and crabs andoysters, grouper. A lot of these are already being affected and have been for 10 days. Were

waiting to see how bad it is at the shore, but we may never fully understand the full impacts onocean life.

The economic impact is as uncertain as the environmental damage. With several million gallonsof medium crude in the water already, some experts are predicting wide economic harm.Experts at the Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies in Corpus Christi, forexample, estimated that as much as $1.6 billion of annual economic activity and services including effects on tourism, fishing and even less tangible services like the storm protectionprovided by wetlands could be at risk.

And thats really only the tip of the iceberg, said David Yoskowitz, who holds the endowedchair for socioeconomics at the institute. Its still early in the game, and theres a lot of potentialdownstream impacts, a lot of multiplier impacts.

But much of this damage could be avoided if the various tactics employed by BP andgovernment technicians pay off in the coming days. The winds are dying down and the seas arecalming, allowing for renewed skimming operations and possible new controlled burns of oil onthe surface. BP technicians are trying to inject dispersants deep below the surface, which could
http://www.gulfmex.org/http://na.oceana.org/http://www.harteresearchinstitute.org/http://www.harteresearchinstitute.org/http://na.oceana.org/http://www.gulfmex.org/


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reduce the impact on aquatic life. Winds and currents could move the globs of emulsified oilaway from coastal shellfish breeding grounds.

The gulf is not a pristine environment and has survived both chronic and acute pollutionproblems before. Thousands of gallons of oil flow into the gulf from natural undersea well seepsevery day, engineers say, and the scores of refineries and chemical plants that line the shorefrom Mexico to Mississippi pour untold volumes of pollutants into the water.

After the Ixtoc spill 31 years ago, the second-largest oil release in history, the gulf rebounded.Within three years, there was little visible trace of the spill off the Mexican coast, which wascompounded by a tanker accident in the gulf a few months later that released 2.6 millionadditional gallons, experts said.

The gulf is tremendously resilient, said Dr. Dokken, the marine biologist. But weve alwaysgot to ask ourselves how long can we keep heaping these insults on the gulf and having it bounce

back. As a scientist, I have to say I just dont know.

Source: NY Times -http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/04/us/04enviro.html
http://www.incidentnews.gov/incident/6250http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/04/us/04enviro.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/04/us/04enviro.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/04/us/04enviro.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/04/us/04enviro.htmlhttp://www.incidentnews.gov/incident/6250


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Questions:

1 What have some experts predicted about the spill? What did President Obama call the spill?

2 Translate:

As one expert put it, this is just the beginning of the game. No one knows

the final score.

The ruptured well, currently pouring an estimated 210,000 gallons of oil a

day into the gulf, could flow for years and still not begin to approach the

36 billion gallons of oil spilled by retreating Iraqi forces when they left

Kuwait in 1991. It is not yet close to the magnitude ofthe Ixtoc I blowoutin

the Bay of Campeche in Mexico in 1979, which spilled an estimated 140

million gallons of crude before the gusher could be stopped.

And it will have to get much worse before it approaches the impact of

the Exxon Valdez accident of 1989, which contaminated 1,300 miles oflargely untouched shoreline and killed tens of thousands of seabirds,

otters and seals along with 250 eagles and 22 killer whales.

3 - What did Prof. Overton have to say about what people are afraid of? What is the opinion of other

experts?

4 How did engineers compare this spill to the one from Exxon?

5 What does Jacqueline Savitz say about the impacts of the spill?

6 What are the economic impacts that can be seen due to the spill?

7 What does the article say about the conditions of the gulf?

8What is Dr. Dokkens opinion about the gulf?
http://invertebrates.si.edu/mms/reports/IXTOC_exec.pdfhttp://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/e/exxon_valdez_oil_spill_1989/index.html?inline=nyt-classifierhttp://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/e/exxon_valdez_oil_spill_1989/index.html?inline=nyt-classifierhttp://invertebrates.si.edu/mms/reports/IXTOC_exec.pdf

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