jaguars as landscape detectives: ecology and conservation...

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Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation in the Upper Paraná River, Brazil Laury Cullen, Ph. D. Fernando Lima, M. Sc. Dênis Sana

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Page 1: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation in the Upper Paraná River, Brazil

Laury Cullen, Ph. D.

Fernando Lima, M. Sc.

Dênis Sana

Page 2: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

São Paulo

Pontal do Paranapanema

Page 3: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Atlantic Forest

1500

Page 4: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

1845

Atlantic Forest

Page 5: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

1907

Atlantic Forest

Page 6: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

1952

Atlantic Forest

Page 7: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

1973

Atlantic Forest

Page 8: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

2009

Atlantic Forest (11% left)

Page 9: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

The Pontal region today

Page 10: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Morro do Diabo (Devil’s Hill) State Park (37000 ha – 370 Km2)

Page 11: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

The upper Paraná-Paranapanema Region

200 Km

Page 12: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicaswww.savethejaguar.org (WCS)

Page 13: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Page 14: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Black lion tamarin

Tapir

The landless people

Rare and common species

Jaguar

Page 15: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Jaguars as Landscape Detectives

A landscape detective is defined as a species that helps determine how to manage landscapes and to design and manage protected area networks.

Life history and behavioural features of jaguar make them potentially suitable as landscape species.

The main aim of this study is to use the jaguar as a landscape detective to develop a network of core protected areas for the Upper Paraná Region, which lies in the highly threatened Atlantic Forest of Brazil.

Page 16: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Main hypothesis

By using jaguars as a landscape detectives we can identify and assess three important features that characterize large carnivores and large scale conservation planning:

(1) Prey diversity and density;(2) Large core areas, important habitat

patches for biodiversity conservation;(3) Landscape connectivity.

Page 17: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Objectives / questions

Questions are linked to the three broad scientific arguments that constitute the landscape detective approach:

1. What is the absolute density of jaguars in high priority protected areas?

2. How do jaguars select habitats? What are their home ranges and movement patterns?

3. How is the spatial structure of the jaguar metapopulation in the region; their location, sizes, initial abundances and carrying capacities?

Page 18: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Methods and resultsQuestion 1. Estimating jaguars density in the Morro do Diabo

State Park

Camera-Trapping

Capture and recapture analysis (Otis et al. 1978)

Program CAPTURE (Rexstand

and Burnham 1991)

Page 19: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Sample design

Page 20: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Grid sampling sizeA = L x L logo L2

= AL = √3.5 = 1.870m

Sampling Design

Page 21: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Sampling area–

A = PIxR2

logo R2

= A/PI–

R = 3.5/3.1415 = 1.055m

Sampling Design

Page 22: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Sampling area–

1.000m between stations–

+/-

10% (Max: 1.050m; Min: 950m)

Sampling Design

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Page 24: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Equipment

Page 25: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Protocols adapted from Karanth & Nichols (2002);•

Camera Base (©

2007 Mathias Tobler);•

GIS

Protocols

Page 26: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Page 28: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Density and MMDM estimates of jaguars in the Morro do Diabo State Park using two different methods.

Method MMDM (km)

Males Females

Density

(jaguars/100 km2) (CI)

Camera Trapping 23.18 6.67 2.47 ± 0.33

Radio Tracking 25.56 15.65 2.20 (N/A)

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Methods and results

Question 2. Home range and movement patterns of jaguars in the Upper Paraná region

Home range and movements

Jaguar captures (Box traps and trained dogs)

VHF radio tracking

GPS Radio tracking

Satellite images

Habitat map

Arcview

3.3 with animal movement analysis extension

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

www.televilt.se

GPS Tracking

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Location StatsMinimum X 367864,00

Minimum Y 7492064,00

Maximum X 380929,00

Maximum Y 7497519,00

Sample Size 761,00

Mean of X 370415,34

Mean of Y 7495642,86

The minimum distance 0,00

The maximum distance 4981,97

The total distance 101619,20

The mean distance 1116,69

Mean Bearing 83,95

Minimum Date 20030211

Maximum Date 20030703

Duration of Study 142,00

Minimum Speed(units/day) 0,00

Maximum Speed(units/day) 4981,97

Mean Daily Speed 715,63

MCP Area 143,79 Km2

95% Ellipse Area 143 96 Km2

Page 33: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Home range areas (km2) for 3 adult male and 7 adult female jaguars in Morro do Diabo State Park and Ivinhema State Park (1998-2006), using a fixed-kernel estimator.

Animal ID

Years tracked

Annual home range Dry-season home range Wet-season home range

No. loc.

50% 85% 95% No. loc.

50% 85% 95% No. loc.

50% 85% 95%

Morro do Diabo State Park M1 1 162 14 50 89 88 6 44 85 74 15 52 86M2 1 156 55 275 471 138 42 272 478 18 30 127 255F1 1 92 2 9 18 58 1 5 12 34 7 20 37F2 2 17 35 98 129 - - - - 17 35 98 129F3 5 35 47 131 192 24 40 105 143 11 38 203 305F4 2 214 12 41 65 131 15 49 77 83 5 21 34F5 1 18 18 80 121 18 18 80 121 - - - -Male mean

159 34 162 280 113 24 158 281 46 15 52 86

Female mean

75 20 60 92 58 8 27 44 36 6 20 36

Ivinhema State Park

M3 2 799 20 147 299 399 31 157 295 400 21 139 290F6 4 326 7 87 135 148 31 89 152 179 6 68 119F7 1 183 26 173 289 154 24 125 241 30 18 45 63Male mean

404 20 147 299 299 31 157 295 300 21 139 290

Female mean

254 16 130 212 151 27 107 196 104 12 56 91

* For calculation of averages I included only those jaguars with ? 30 locations.

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Table 5.3. Home range size for jaguars obtained using the 100% Minimum Convex Polygon in different studies in the Neotropics.

Home Range Size (km2 ) Habitat Source Country Male (n) Female (n) 33.4 (4) 10.3 (3) Forest Rabinowitz and Nottingham (1986) Belize 36.9 (2) 45.5 (2) Forest Ceballos et al. (2002) México 88.7 (4) 70 (1) Forest Crawshaw (1995) Brazil 90 (2) 32.3 (3) Pantanal Schaller and Crawshaw (1980) Brazil 152.4 (1) 139.6 (4) Pantanal Crawshaw and Quigley (1991) Brazil 130 (1) 49 (2) Llanos Scognamillo et al. (2002) Venezuela 56 (7) 39 (2) Forest Crawshaw et al. (2004) Brazil/Argentina 265 (2) 228 (1) Cerrado Silveira (2004) Brazil 162 (2) 60 (5) Forest This Study * Brazil 147 (1) 130 (2) Marsh This Study * Brazil * Home range estimates based on 85% Fixed Kernel

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Figure 5.12. Movements of M1 adult male in the Morro do Diabo State Park,showing the use of a nearby fragment in the north and across the ParanapanemaRiver to the south.

Page 36: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Figure 5.13. Adult male M3 moved outside the Ivinhema State Park to a 2000 haisolated forest fragment 30 Km to west, using some gallery forests as travelroutes. The dates associated with each location show that this movement required the adult male to traverse open pastures.

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Methods and resultsQuestion 3. Habitat selection of jaguars in the Upper Parana

region

Habitat Selection

Jaguar locations

Habitat Map

Habitat Use (U)

Habitat Availability (A)

Habitat selectivity was then defined by comparing availability (A) and utilization (U), using Ivlev’s (1961) index of selectivity = (U –

A)/(U + A).

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Table 7.1.Habitat availability, use and selection by jaguars in the Upper Paraná.

Habitat type

Symbol

(A) Availability Proportion in the study site

(%)

(U) Use: Proportion of

jaguar locations (%)

Ivlev’s Index of

selectivity

Water water 6.997 4.104 -0.26057 Primary forest primfor 5.239 13.841 0.45087

Secondary forest secfor 2.605 5.153 0.32848 Alluvial forest aluv 0.970 1.025 0.02754

Dense marshland densemarsh 4.977 10.045 0.33734 Open marshland openmarsh 11.013 25.695 0.39995

Agriculture agric 17.208 17.921 0.02030 Pasture pasture 50.991 22.216 -0.39307

Based on these results, I defined (HS) as:

0.00203*[agric]+0.00275*[aluv]+0.03373*[densemarsh]+0.04000*[openmarsh]-

0.03931*[pasture]+0.04509*[primfor]+0.03285*[secfor]-0.02606*[water]

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Methods and resultsQuestion 4. Metapopulation structure of jaguars in the Upper

Rio Paraná region

Landscape Data

Habitat selection information from studied jaguars

Habitat Suitability Map (HSM)

Patch Recognition

Patch Structure

Spatial Metapopulation Model

Population Viability (PVA) and Risk Analysis

Page 41: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Methods and resultsQuestion 3. Metapopulation structure of jaguars in the Pontal

do Paranapanema Region and the upper Rio Paraná

ecosystem

Page 42: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Page 43: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Methods and resultsMetapopulation structure of jaguars in the Pontal do

Paranapanema Region and the upper Rio Paraná

ecosystem

Habitat suitability function determines the suitability of a location given various input maps describing environmental variables.

0.022343*[agric]+0.030943*[aluv]+0.038971*[densemarsh]+0.034810*[openmarsh]-0.074584*[pasture]+0.066265*[primfor]+0.045048*[secfor]-

0.0097*[water]

It attempts to identify habitat patchiness from the jaguars point of view and how the species perceives the patchiness of the landscape

Page 44: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Patch structure of jaguar

populations in the upper Paraná-

Paranapanema

region

Habitat Suitability Map

Page 45: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Patch structure of jaguar

populations in the upper Paraná-

Paranapanema

region

HST= Habitat suitability threshold for patches. The value of HS below which it is assumed that the species cannot reproduce (2.0 was used here)

ND= Neighborhood distance is used to find patches. The average foraging distance of the species (3200 mts used)

Page 46: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Using the Model to Increase Protected

Areas Size

Page 47: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Patch #

Location K* Init.* abund.

Total HS

Avg. HS

Area (km2)

Area as % of

patches1 Morro do Diabo 9 14 20678 5,30 351 19,61 2 Ivinhema 14 21 32256 2,97 976 54,47 3 Ilha Grande 7 10 15273 2,96 465 25,92

Total 30 45 68207 3,74 1792 100,00

K = only adults and sub adults, Init. Abundance = all individuals

HS = Habitat Suitability

Table 12. Carrying capacities, initial abundances and areas of patches identified by the model.

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Methods and results

Question 5. Population Viability

Initial abundances data

Carrying capacity data

Vital rates data (fecundity and survival data)

Density dependency (ceiling model)

Monte Carlo simulations

RAMAS Metapopulation (Akçakaya, R. 2002)

Page 49: Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation ...culter.colorado.edu/~kittel/CaseStudy_JAGUAR_Fernando.pdf · Jaguars as Landscape Detectives: Ecology and Conservation

Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

This can be explained by the type of source and sink dynamics The smaller populations are more prone to extinction as a result of demographic stochastic. Increasing dispersal means jaguars going from more stable larger populations to smaller and more extinction-prone populations.

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Parameter/Scenario Effect Terminal a extinction

risk

Metapop b occup.

MD O

I V O

I G O

Base model - 68% 12 2 8 2 Base model + 10% dispersal rate - 100% 3 1 1 1 Base model + 10 disp.rate + 15% vital rates + 1% 42 12 20 10Base model + 10% nat. dispersal + Iguaçu Park + 0% 65 3 3 6 Base model + 10% nat.disp + transloc + Iguaçu + 0% 74 10 11 6

a. Shows the probability that the metapopulation abundance will end up below a threshold number of 10 individuals 50 years from now;

b. Metapopulation occupancy: shows the total number of individuals the metapopulation is likely to have 50 years from now;

MDO= Morro do Diabo Area occupancy in 50 years;IVO= Ivinhema Area occupancy in 50 years;IGO= Ilha Grande Area occupancy in 50 years. Transloc= translocations or managed dispesal at 10 % rate among all populations.

Table 13. Sensitivity of results to different parameters and scenarios used when modelling the viability of the upper Paraná-

Paranapanema jaguar metapopulation.

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Metapopulation

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Summary of preliminary results

Camera trapping estimated jaguar population for the Morro Park to be around 2.22

individuals/100 Km2. This estimate is lower when compared to other southern and

Pantanal jaguar populations in Brazil, but similar from estimates obtained from other

Neotropical areas.

These differences could be attributed to the lower productivity of semideciduous Atlantic Forests on the interior, bordering the cerrado vegetation, thus affecting the distribution and

density of prey species.

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Summary of preliminary results

Patch analysis identified 3 major habitat areas for jaguars and biodiversity conservation. Only

2,6 % of the total landscape analysed is covered by the three suitable patches found.

Total jaguar population estimated for the eco- region is around 45 individuals.

Gaps found between patches might affect landscape connectivity and dispersal between patches. However the habitat map identified important stepping-stone areas that could be

managed and restored to approximate and link jaguar populations in the long term

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Summary of preliminary results

Sensitivity analysis showed significant results when dispersal is combined with a 15% increase in population vital rates (increasing survivorships and decreasing mortality rates) and/or considering the

Iguaçu Falls population in the plan.

The metapopulation and all identified populations are likely to persist and

stabilize when this scenario is considered.

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Next Steps (2009-2011)

1. Dispersal Studies

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Next Steps (2009-2011)

2. Revisiting the Iguacú Falls Jaguar Population

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Next Steps (2009-2011)

3. Management Plan

Our main goal is to update the current jaguar conservation model by developing a management plan for maintaining viable populations of the jaguar in the Upper

Paraná River Corridor, Brazil. Step 1: Updating land- cover/land-use maps

and demographic data

The aim of this task is to use the most recent information that is

available for supporting the model development. The maps for land-cover and land-use form the

basis of the habitat model, and the demographic data

form the basis of the metapopulation model.

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Next Steps (2009-2011)

3. Management Plan

Step 2: Updating and validating the habitat model

. We will use the same type of data (land-use maps and

jaguar GPS locations) that were used in the previous

model (and updated in Step 1) to develop habitat models using two other methods:

logistic regression and maximum entropy methods.

We will then validate the models by estimating the

habitat function for part of the landscape and using it to predict habitat suitability

values for the remainder of the landscape and comparing the

predicted values to jaguar GPS locations.

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Next Steps (2009-2011)

3. Management Plan

Step 3: Producing land ownership maps and database

In order to use results of such a model in making

actual management decisions, the results must

be spatially explicit, i.e., they must allow comparing multiple scenarios that may

involve different combinations of available

and suitable land, in relation to currently existing

protected areas. The result will be a detailed map of

land ownership, with each parcel (e.g., each farm) identified in terms of its availability for a set of conservation options.

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Next Steps (2009-2011)

3. Management Plan

Step 4: The Workshop

.

To review the model and its assumptions, and determine plausible ranges for uncertain parameters;

To identify potential management options (e.g., protection of subsets of available land units, translocation, protection of prey base, reducing road mortality, increasing

connectivity, etc.);

To characterize each management action in terms of its effects on model parameters;

To make preliminary runs of the model with selected management options to support more precise identification of management options;

To get feedback from the agencies in terms of the best format for presenting the results of the model.

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

Next Steps (2009-2011)

3. Management Plan

Step 5: Making management recommendations

We will run a comprehensive sensitivity analysis, with two objectives:

to determine the sensitivity of management recommendations (e.g., the optimal set of management actions)

to data and model uncertainties, and to identify future research activities that can reduce any uncertainties that are reflected in

management recommendations.

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Instituto de Pesquisas EcológicasInstituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas

The Wildlife Trust The Liz Claiborne Art Orternberg

Foundation

The Whitley Awards The Rolex Awards

BBC Wildlife Fund DICE and Dept. Anthropology UKC

The Conservation Food and Health Foundation The Lincoln Park Zoo

The Woodland Park Zoo The Boticario

Foundation

CAPES-Brazil Pró

Carnívoros

CESP