inovação e tendências

© 2012 IBM Corporation

Case IBM: InovaCase IBM: InovaCase IBM: InovaCase IBM: Inovaçççções, ões, ões, ões,

TransformaTransformaTransformaTransformaççççõesõesõesões

e Visão de Futuroe Visão de Futuroe Visão de Futuroe Visão de Futuro

CenCenCenCenáááários para TI 2020rios para TI 2020rios para TI 2020rios para TI 2020

Cezar TaurionExecutivo de Novas TecnologiasTechnical Evangelist

[email protected]

© 2012 IBM Corporation2 IM AR

Nossa Agenda

� A IBM de ontem e a de hoje: A transformação de uma empresa de hardware para uma empresa de soluções

� IBM e o processo de inovação contínua

� Visão de futuro: como será a IBM de amanhã?


IBM strategic positioning

Individual/ Consumer Focused

Enterprise

Focused

High Value

Add

Low Cost

Producer

Traditional

IT Industry


How does a company survive 100 years?

4


The US Patent and Trademark Office awarded IBM an average 22.6 patents per working day in 2010, for a total 5,896.

6,180 U.S. patents in 2011

Inovação na IBM: inserido no DNA corporativo

The top-10 receivers of patents in 2010,

according to IFI Claims Patent Services:

1. IBM (5896); United States

2. Samsung (4551); South Korea

3. Microsoft (3094); United States

4. Canon (2552); Japan

5. Panasonic (2482); Japan

6. Toshiba (2246); Japan

7. Sony (2150); Japan

8. Intel (1653); United States

9. LG Electronics (1490); South Korea10. HP (1480); United States

IBM e Governo Federal anunciam centro de pesquisas no Brasil08 de junho de 2010 – 19h22

�Primeiro da América do Sul.

�Tecnologias para tornar o Planeta Mais Inteligente.

�Sistemas humanos inteligentes para grandes eventos,

como Copa 2014 e Olimpíadas 2016.

�Sistemas inteligentes para automação de serviços.

�Sistemas inteligentes para descobertas de recursos naturais (petróleo e gás) e logística.


IBM Values:

� Dedication to every client's success

� Innovation that matters, for our company

and for the world

� Trust and personal responsibility in all

relationships


História da Computação e da IBM se fundem…


IBM has a diverse, evolving, set of internal foresight capabilities focused on technology, society and business

10

Eight IBM Foresight Initiatives

1. Global Technology Outlook

2. Academy of Technology

3. First of a Kind (FOAK)

4. Global Innovation Outlook

5. InnovationJam

6. Institute for Business Value

7. Market Development & Insights

8. HorizonWatch Community

Global

Technology

Outlook

(GTO)

Global

Innovation

Outlook

(GIO)

Academy of

Technology

(AoT)

First

of a Kind

(FOAK)

InnovationJam

Institute for

Business

Value

(IBV)

Market Development &

Insights

(MDI)

Community: Horizonwatch

© 2012 IBM Corporation11 IM AR11

The Global Technology Outlook is developed annually by IBM Research, which has 11 labs located in 9 countries

China

WatsonAlmaden

Austin

TokyoHaifa

Zurich

India

IBM Research Lab

5 Nobel Laureates

14 National Medals

6 Turing Awards

80 Members of National Academies

11 Inductees, National Inventors Hall of Fame

Rio

Dublin

Melbourne


The Global Technology Outlook team solicits input from the wide diversity of disciplines at IBM Research

ChemistryComputer Science Engineering

Materials Science

Mathematical Sciences

Physics

Behavioral Sciences

Service Science, Management &

Engineering

BusinessInnovation

TechnologyInnovation

Social Innovation

Demand Innovation

Science & Engineering

Business & Management

Social & CognitiveSciences

Economics & Markets

Improved human computer interaction

sub-micron lithography

Deep QA for Natural Language Processing (Watson)

Nano-science and Nano-technology

Organic Semiconductors Improve services-led economy

protein foldingTrackpoint for Thinkpad, Risk Management


IBM Research’s annual Global Technology Outlook identifies disruptive societal, technical and economic trends that might impact IBM and its clients

Objective

� The GTO identifies significant technology trends early.

� It looks for high impact disruptive technologies leading to game changing products and services over a 3-10 year horizon

►Disruptive technologies, potential new technologies, game changers

►Identify trends - - exponentials, thresholds, discontinuities, walls

►New technologies, new markets

� The GTO is used to drive technical initiatives in IBM Research and to jointly engage with IBM in formulating these initiatives

About The Process

� It’s a process that takes the whole year and involves getting input from all IBM Industry and Business Unit Strategists, IBM Research employees, University researchers, partners, and suppliers

Global

Technology

Outlook

(GTO)


Research Studies

Radical Collaboration

’80s — ’90s

IT Centric

Evolution of the Global Technology Outlook

’00s — ’07

+ Client Focus

’08 — ’09

+ Business

’10s …

+ Industries, Global

10 years 5 – 10 years 3 – 10 years

Industry Insights

Marketing Differentiation

Business Implications

Driving Research

Strategy

IBM Opportunities & Threats

Shaping IBM’s Strategy


Global Technology Outlook 2012Uncertain data and analytics are major themes

Managing Uncertain Data at Scale

Future of

Analytics

The Future Watson

Systems of People

Outcome Based Business

Resilient Business and Services


Visão de futuro: Que tal olharmos o Watson?


An analytical system: Taking Watson beyond Jeopardy!

This poet wrote to a friend, “We are by

September and yet my flowers are as bold as

June. Amherst hasgone to Eden.”

Specific questions Statistical analytics

Statisticalranking

Batch training

Current Future

Interactive dialogue

Evidenceprofiles

Rich problem scenarios

Continuous learning


Watson’s real value proposition: Efficient decision support over unstructured (and structured) content

Unstructured Data� Broad, rich in context

� Rapidly growing, current

� Invaluable yet under utilized

SQL/XQuery

Existin

g BI

Infe

rence

/Rules

Structured Data� Precise, explicit

� Narrow, expensive

Jeopardy! Challenge

Deeper Understanding but BrittleHigh Precision at High CostNarrow Limited Coverage

Shallow UnderstandingLow Precision

Broad Coverage

Deeper Understanding,Higher Precision and Broader,

Timely Coverage at lower costs

Key WordSearch

Relevance Ranking

Open-Domain

Question-Answering


CognitiveSystems Era

Programmable Systems Era

TabulatingSystems Era

Eras of computing

Co

mp

ute

r In

tell

igen

ce

Time


Time

Co

mp

ute

r In

tell

ige

nc

e

Counting Machine

(Circa 1820)

ENIAC(Circa 1945)

Deep Blue (1997)

Watson (2010)

Learning Systems

AntikytheraAstronomical

Computer (ca 87 BC)

Abacus(Circa 3500 BC)

Napier’s rods(Circa 1600)

The New IT Frontier

System/360 (1964)

“Within ten years a digital computer will be the world's chess champion” 1958,H. A. Simon and Allen Newell

A evolução das “Máquinas Pensantes”


Global

Innovation

Outlook

(GIO)

Topics Water Security & Society

Africa Media and Content Energy & Environment

Transportation Future of the Enterprise Gaming & Leadership

The Inventor’s Forum A New IP Marketplace Government

Business of Work & Life Healthcare

� Focused on broad and challenging topics – spanning geographies,

generations, industries and interests

� Ran from 2004-09, picked 2-3 topics per year

� Surfaced insights and opportunities for business and societal

innovation

� Open, collaborative, multi-disciplinary process with external business

leaders, academics, researchers and policymakers

� Helped to launch IBM spin-off projects

The Global Innovation Outlook focused more on broad issues impacting all types of organizations

21


The IBM Academy of Technology is a society of IBM technical leaders across all IBM Business Units

Academy Mission

►Advance the understanding of key emerging technical areas,

►Improve development of IBM's global technical community,

►Engage clients in technical pursuits of mutual value.

� Sets the Technical Agenda via ‘Activities’

►Anyone in IBM’s technical community can start an Academy activity

►Currently, many activities are in areas such as:

• Smarter Planet

• Cloud Computing

• Business Analytics and Optimization

� What makes a good Academy activity?

►Stimulate, organize, synthesize and advance technical dialogue and

innovation across business lines

►Understand the gaps and address the opportunities for innovation

that occur at the intersections of units and technical disciplines,

Academy of

Technology

(AoT)


The First-of-a-Kind (FOAK) Program encourages collaboration of early adopter clients with IBM Research and Sales

� Pushes early thought leadership and experiences with new technologies

� Pilot experimental solutions & deliver working prototypes

►Validate market requirements

►Test market readiness

� 250+ projects completed

� Recognized industry best practice

►Frost & Sullivan Certified Best Practice

► Innovation Passport: The IBM First-of-a-Kind Journey From Research to Reality

First

of a Kind

(FOAK)

FOAK accelerates the delivery of innovation from the research labs into the market


InnovationJamLargest Online Brainstorming Session Ever Held

� Demonstrate power of collaboration in advancing innovation

� Accelerate the ability to innovate and deploy integrated offerings

� Participants

► 150,000 people

► 104 countries

► 46,000 ideas

► Hundreds of clients, business partners

and academic institutions worldwide

► 12,690 family members


Sector / Industry Teams

Communications�Energy & Utility�Media & Entertainment�Telecommunications

Distribution�CPG�Life Sciences/Pharma�Retail�Travel & Transportation

Public�Defense�Government�Healthcare

Financial Services�Banking�Financial Markets� Insurance

Industrial�Aerospace�Automotive�Chemical & Petroleum�Electronics� Industrial Products

� Customer Relationship Management

� Human Capital Management

� Supply Chain Management

� Financial Management

� Strategy & Change

Business Function Teams

� Application Innovation

The IBM Institute for Business Value is global team of 50+ consultants who conduct research and analysis across multiple industries andfunctional disciplines

Institute for

Business

Value

(IBV)


Examples of Thought Leadership Studies

Example reports include

the CEO Study, CHRO Study, CFO Study, and

CIO Study

“Future Agendas” CXO Surveys

3 to 10 year industry

and/or functional area outlook with action

oriented next steps

IBV’s thought leadership provides an original, research-based point of view told from a client’s business perspective

Institute for

Business

Value

(IBV)


� Revenue growth is the #1 priority

� Responsiveness is key competence

� Improving internal

capabilities as first step to growth

� Revenue growth is the #1 priority

� Responsiveness is key competence

� Improving internal

capabilities as first step to growth

� Business model innovation matters

� External collaboration

� Innovation must be

orchestrated from the top

� Business model innovation matters

� External collaboration

� Innovation must be

orchestrated from the top

� Hungry for change� Customers as

opportunity to differentiate

� Business model

innovation, global business designs

� Hungry for change� Customers as

opportunity to differentiate

� Business model

innovation, global business designs

� Embody creative leadership

� Reinvent customer relationships

� Build operating

dexterity

� Embody creative leadership

� Reinvent customer relationships

� Build operating

dexterity

� Empowering employees through

values� Engaging customers

as individuals

� Amplifying innovation with partnerships

� Empowering employees through

values� Engaging customers

as individuals

� Amplifying innovation with partnerships

2004

Your turn

2006Expanding the

Innovation Horizon

2008The Enterpriseof the Future

2010Capitalizing on

Complexity

2012Leading through

Connections

The Global CEO Study 2012 is the fifth biennial CEO study, building on our insights and findings over the last 8 years

765 interviews765 interviews 1130 interviews1130 interviews 1541 interviews1541 interviews456 interviews456 interviews 1709 interviews1709 interviews


Source: Q1 “What are the most important external forces that will impact your organization over the next 3 to 5 years?”

External forces that will impact the organization

68%

69%

71%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Technology factorsTechnology factors

People skills

Market factors

Macro-economic factors

Regulatory concerns

Globalization

Socio-economic factors

Environmental issues

Geopolitical factors

For the first time, CEOs identify technology as the most important external force impacting their organizations


� The IBM MI Strategic

Perspectives Team provides the

initial foresight and insight for

new and emerging market

opportunities and competitive

threats.

� This includes providing a Market

Insights perspective

► Market Definition

► Potential Opportunity

► Drivers/Inhibitors

► Potential Segmentation

► Geographical Differences

► Competitive Intelligence

IBM Market Insight’s Strategic Perspectives Team accelerates the understanding of new or emerging markets, and act as a catalyst for future growth.

•Future of Nuclear Energy ● Next Emerging Geographic Markets ●Consumer Product Goods in Rural China ● Climate Change/Energy & Environment ● Physical Infrastructure in Growth Markets ● Advanced Water Management ● Intelligent Buildings ●Smarter Cities ● 2015 Growth Strategy

•Future of Nuclear Energy ● Next Emerging Geographic Markets ●Consumer Product Goods in Rural China ● Climate Change/Energy & Environment ● Physical Infrastructure in Growth Markets ● Advanced Water Management ● Intelligent Buildings ●Smarter Cities ● 2015 Growth Strategy

Market Development

& Insights

(MDI)

Example Reports


Community: Horizonwatch

� Demographics

► This is a cross-IBM community of 1900+ IBMers from all types of functions, divisions and geographies.

� Focus

► Emerging trends and technologies

� Conference calls

► Topics are presented to the community by subject matter experts

� Collaboration platforms

► Blog

► Discussion forums

► Bookmarks

► File sharing

► Wikis

The HorizonWatch Community was formed in 2001 to bring together all IBMers interested in understanding the future(s).


HorizonWatch: 150 Conference Calls Since 2001


Inovação é uma atividade social

� A invenção sózinha não é mais

suficiente;

� A inovação reside na interseção entre ainvenção e o “insight”;

� Inovação é multidisciplinar

� Inovação deve ser relevante e criar

novos valores;

► Transforma conhecimento e tecnologias

para impulsionar a produtividade e criar

novos hábitos sociais.


Diferentes visões de uma mesma situação

Diversity works!


IBM Institute for Business Value, CEO Study 2006

Colaboração impulsiona a inovação

Academia

Associações

Parceiros

Competidores

Think-tanks

Consultores

Clientes

Funcionários

Outras instituições

Pesquisa & Desenvolvimento

Vendas e Serviços

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

As fontes de novas idéias e Inovação


Existem diversos tipos de Inovação

ProdutosNovos produtos ou

melhoramentos em produtosexistentes

Processos� Melhoria de processos en uma

organização (ex: lean processes)� Reengenharia de processos.

Modelos de Negócio� Novos espaços de atuação em serviçosadjacentes (iPod+ITunes)

� Mudança na cadeia de valor (novaentrega de servicós);

� Novos modelos financeiros (ex: Google).

Gerencia e cultura� Novas maneiras de gerenciar

uma organização (ex: empresas do

Silicon Valley)

Política e Sociedade� Novas leis e estrutura

educacional

Serviços� Novos serviços ou

melhoramentos em serviçosexistentes


Inovação é um processo sistemático

� Competitive edge – harder

and harder to sustain

� Systematically driving

innovations – a learningprocess

� Corresponding capability –

long-term growth

� Collaboration and

ecosystems – key success

factors


Do Paradigma Atual: Sistema de Inovação Fechado

ResearchResearch

InvestigationsInvestigationsDevelopmentDevelopment New ProductsNew Products

& Services& Services

The

Market

Science

&

Technology

Base


Our currentmarket

Our new market

Other firm´́́́smarket

Para Open/Collaborative innovation

External technology insourcing

Internaltechnology base

External technology base

Stolen with pride from Prof Henry Chesbrough UC Berkeley, Open Innovation.

Internal/external venture handling

Licence, spin

out, divest


IdeasBusinessSynthesis

Collaborate PrototypeEarly

DeploymentEvaluation Result

• IBM Jams • Innovation Hubs• Blogs• Connections• BlueTwit• IM (Sametime)

• Client input (GIO)• Research GTO• Bluepedia• GBS White papers• Exec Podcasts• Academy Studies• Horizonwatch

• IBM Jams• Innovation

Hubs• Wikis• Blog threads• iHubs• Communities

• Innovators• BizTech• Research teams• Extreme Blue• Blue Opportunity

• TAP hosting:- BlueHost- DPE- IHE

• TAP Forums• TAP Ratings• TAP Survey• TAP ‘First

Adopters’

• Abandon• Product team• Publish research• CIO Production• Service offering• Merge with other

similar efforts• AlphaWorks

IBM Innovation model

Innovation Networks

Corporate Values

Business Strategy

Communications


Marketing and internal communications

� Critical partners

� Very willing to share the good news and recognize employees


IBM Values – “Trust and Responsability…”


Idea Management at IBM

T.J. Watson launched

the original IDEAS

program in the 1930sIDEAS went

on-line in VM

in the 1970s

ThinkPlace transformed

the IDEAS model with

open collaboration in 2005

Innovation Hubs continue the

transformation with

social networking

integration


The virtuous circle…Engaged businessleaders share their

challenges with the

Hub community

Innovators respond

by posting ideas

and collaborating

Idea catalysts and

managers review ideas – implementing

successful ones

Successful ideas

get recognized inthe Hub and on w3


Technology Adoption Program

� The Technology Adoption Program is a CIO service with free hosting for new innovations

� Provides both informal and survey feedback

� Has a graduated sequence of ‘hardening’ innovations as they progress to production deployment or get transferred as assets to product and service teams

© 2012 IBM CorporationIM AR

Social Media usage history

Spring 2012 Social Media User Statistics 4

LinkedIn 150M in Spring 2012; 175M users August 2012


Alguns Resultados

Práticos


GlobalizationGlobally Integrated Enterprises

Nova geografia da economiaEm 2020 PIB do E7 maior que G7Inovação reversa x glocalização

Internet &Economia Digital

CommoditizationTransformações na industria

A New Model for the Enterprise in a Flat World

Globally Integrated Enterprise


O ritmo das inovações está se acelerando...

AutomóvelIn

tern

et

0 25 50 100 125 15075

Anos

0

50

100

TelefoneEletricidade

Radio

Televisão

VCR

PC

Celular% P

en

etr

açã

o


Commodity


Chips em todos os lugares!


Vivemos uma rápida evolução da internet


Computadores em lugares antes inimagináveis…


The 3rd generation of computing platform, the 3rd phase of the Internet, and the explosion of information are colliding to form a perfect storm of disruption and transformation

InternetWeb2.0

Web 3.0 (Cloud, Mobile, Social)

1964 2008200319941981

Mainframe

Client Server/PC

Mobile Devices (Smartphones,

Tablets, etc)

Amount of Data Collected and Stored

Generations of Computing Platforms

Phases of the Internet

2012

2020-2


Quatro tendências estão mudandointeiramente muitas indústrias

Mobilidade Cloud Big Data SocialCloudCloud


Deliver integration and innovation to clients

Become the premier Globally Integrated Enterprise

Focus on open technologies and high- value solutions

Mark

ets

/Bu

yers

Traditional

New

Offerings

IBM’s Growth Landscape

New

GrowthMarkets

BusinessAnalytics

SmarterPlanet

Cloud Computing

Traditional

IndustryFrameworks& Dynamic

Infrastructure

IBM’s strategy and growth initiatives are expanding our opportunities


Mobile explosion

“By 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common Web access device worldwide”

Source: Gartner Highlights Key Predictions for IT Organizations and Users in 2010 and Beyond:

http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1278413


The Mobile Computing gold rush is in full swing. The “train has left the station”

“Between 2010 and 2015, the global installed base of smartphones will increase at a compound annual

growth rate (CAGR) of 33 percent. The tablet market will move even faster, achieving a CAGR of 81

percent during the same period. Along with this incredible explosion of devices, network capacity,

applications, video, mobile transactions and M2M deployments will grow to match global demand” –Yankee Group

“By 2015, more U.S. Internet users will access the Internet through mobile devices than through PCs” – IDC

“ Global mobile subscriptions will reach over six billion by

the end of this year and the Asia-Pacific region will

account for more than half of the worldwide figure in 2011”

– ABI Research

Evidence of Market Growth

“ Demand for tablets in Asia-Pacific will increase by 95 percent in 2012, outstripping equivalent shipments in North America or Europe.” – Gartner

“In 2012, mobile workers and consumers will embrace

tablets, mobile content, mobile video and personal cloud

services at unprecedented levels..” – Yankee Group


Consumerization of IT – New paradigm

Company acquisition

User acquisition


Consumerization of IT – Trend Overview

Drivers • consumer mobile computing

• consumer social media

• remote and mobile workforce

• rise of corporate social business

Challenges• CIOs must be flexible and provide new ways for employees to access corporate applications from their own personal devices.

• Have to support different devices, platforms, carriers and countries

• Secure access to corporate data

Implications• IT departments have to accommodate more and more demands placed upon their services while keeping

corporate systems secure• The line between business and person continues to blur

• Consumerization is a major, transformational trend with significant impact on business processes business

and IT services market

“Consumerization … describes the trend for new information technology to emerge first in the

consumer market and then spread into business organizations, resulting in the convergence of the IT

and consumer electronics industries, and a shift in IT innovation from large businesses to the home” –Wikipedia

IM AR


The Consumerization trend is disruptive for IT departments, causing them to have to respond with new strategies to meet demand

“Consumerization is now the primary driver of the

mobile universe, and CIOs must be ready to embrace a

range of more-flexible approaches to their mobile

strategy” – Gartner

“Security Minefield: 'Bring Your Own Device' Will

Bedevil IT Security in 2012” – CIO.com

“CIOs globally are faced with the unprecedented

challenge of an explosion of popular devices and applications in their enterprises that they are struggling

to control from a technological, policy, and cultural

perspective” – IDC

Challenges


Mobile Computing vai impactar processos de negócio, demandandonovas aplicações específicas para explorar a potencialidade dos smartphones/tablets

“Mobile business is the number one IT issue pre-occupying the minds of IT

professionals in Asia/Pacific, according to IDC's CIO Innovation Survey

2011. ” – IDC

“Second generation mobile strategies differ considerably from those of the first generation. They must be multichannel, part of your holistic digital

strategy, and include innovative mobile-only capabilities.” – Gartner

IBM 2011 Tech Trends Report

“By 2015, mobile Web technologies will have advanced sufficiently, so that

half the applications that would be written as native apps in 2011 will instead be delivered as Web apps. ” – Gartner

New Strategies / Solutions Needed


Mobility looks to be the next competitive frontier for technology

Percent of respondents who identify as a market leader

Mobility by Industry


Firms cite increased worker productivity as a top benefit of mobility


Mobility is top priority for CIOs with budget expected to increase


Case study: IBM


CognitiveSystems Era

Programmable Systems Era

TabulatingSystems Era

Eras of computing

Co

mp

ute

r In

tell

igen

ce

Time


Juntando tudo: As fronteiras da TecnologiaComputing Everywhere

and in Everything

Servers

PCs/Tablets

Mobiles

Embedded

Near

Us

Far From Us

Touching Us

In Us

Sensory Devices

Bio-electronic Devices

Pre

sent

Fut

ure

Mobile Computing Era(Current Dominant

Paradigm)

Smarter Era(The Next Frontier)

New Computing Paradigms

+

Neuromorphic andCognitive Computing

QuantumComputing

Bio-Inspired Computation

Natural Interfacesand Connectivity

Touch Computing

Keyboard Entry

Sensory Computing(voice, movement, natural sensing, etc)

Nature

Work and

Leisure

Biology

Computing without Programming

Fetch-> Decode -> Execute

Von Neumann Architectures

Non Von Neumann Architectures


Computing Everywhereand in Everything

Servers

PCs/Tablets

Mobiles

Embedded

Near

Us

Far From Us

Touching Us

In Us

Sensory Devices

Bio-electronic Devices

Pre

sent

Fut

ure

Mobile Computing Era(Current Dominant

Paradigm)

Smarter Era(The Next Frontier)

New Computing Paradigms

+

Neuromorphic andCognitive Computing

Quantum

ComputingBio-Inspired Computation

Natural Interfacesand Connectivity

Touch Computing

Keyboard Entry

Sensory Computing(voice, movement, natural sensing, etc)

Nature

Work and

Leisure

Biology

Computing without a Program

Fetch-> Decode -> Execute

Von Neumann Architectures

Non Von Neumann ArchitecturesTI torna-se invisivel TI Cognitiva

Juntando tudo: As fronteiras da Tecnologia

© 2012 IBM CorporationIM AR

Obrigado pela Atenção

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