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O papel da floresta
amazônica no processo
de ―mudanças climáticas
globais‖
Niro Higuchi – [email protected]
Pesquisador do INPA
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O que são ―mudanças
climáticas‖?
Seca? Enchente? Frio? Calor?
Tornado? Furacão?
E as conseqüências?
Aquecimento global?
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2005
Tempo na Amazônia
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Amazonas, outubro 2005 (Greenpeace)
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CHUVAS CONVECTIVAS ou DOWNBURST NA
AMAZÔNIA: 16-18 JAN/05
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Área do INPA (ZF2) antes de 2005
INPA-LMF instalações
INPA-LMF transectos
LBA
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Área do INPA (ZF2) depois de 2005
INPA-LMF instalações
INPA-LMF transectos
LBA
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ZF2 ... 4 anos depois
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2 0 1 0
Widespread Amazon forest tree mortality from a single
cross-basin squall line event
by
Robinson I. Negrón-Juárez, Jeffrey Q. Chambers, Giuliano Guimaraes, Hongcheng
Zeng, Carlos F. M. Raupp, Daniel M. Marra, Gabriel H. P. M. Ribeiro, Sassan S.
Saatchi, Bruce W. Nelson, Niro Higuchi
Geophysical Research Letter
doi:10.1029/2010gl043733 (in the press).
Trabalhos de campo começaram em 2006
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Amazon Hit by Its Own Katrinaby Phil Berardelli on 12 July 2010, 5:39 PM | Permanent Link | 3 Comments
Tree killer. A severe storm in the Amazon in 2005 felled hundreds of millions of trees; Credit: Jeffrey Chambers/Tulane University
Two giant storms slammed the Western Hemisphere in 2005. Everyone knows about Hurricane Katrina, which struck the U.S. Gulf Coast in late August. But
in January of that year, a powerful line of thunderstorms roared through the Amazon basin in Brazil. That storm, researchers report, may have felled
hundreds of millions of trees. Just as striking, they've found evidence that such windstorms aren't unique.
Trees have a long life span, but in any given patch of forest they're dying all the time—from drought, insects, disease, old age, and wind. "Blow downs," is
what scientists call windstorm casualties, says forest ecologist Jeffrey Chambers. Chambers, along with atmospheric scientist Robinson Negrón-Juárez,
both of Tulane University in New Orleans, Louisiana, and colleagues had begun studying the effects of the 2005 Amazon storm around Manaus, Brazil,
when Katrina hit their home city. After about a year's hiatus, during which they studied the storm's wind effects on Gulf Coast forests, they resumed their
research with colleagues at Brazil's National Institute for Amazonian Research in Manaus.
Using satellite images of about 34,000 square kilometers of the region from 2004 and comparing them with post-storm images, the researchers discovered
that the wind had cut an enormous swath through the rainforest, running in a northeasterly direction across the Amazon basin. In all, the storm affected
possibly 70% of the basin. After analyzing the satellite images, the team chose 30 random plots at five sites around Manaus for field studies. The trees in
some of the plots had been devastated by the storm, while others were untouched. Over the next 4 years, Chambers says, he and colleagues derived a
"body count" of trees in the plots that were knocked down by the wind.
The team reports in a paper accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters that the storm knocked down an estimated 500 million trees across
the entire Amazon basin. For the Manaus region alone the storm accounted for about 30% of deforestation in 2005. Some research has suggested that
drought was the primary cause of natural tree death in the Amazon rainforest in 2005, Chambers says. But much of the Manaus area was unaffected by
drought in that year, he says, so the findings show that the windstorm clearly took an enormous toll.
"These large windstorms are proving to be important to our understanding of how the Amazon works, in terms of carbon storage, biodiversity, and other
factors," says global ecologist Gregory Asner of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, California. If the storms become more intense or frequent,
possibly because of climate change, Asner adds, "We can expect big changes to the structure and composition of ecosystems resting in their paths."
*This article has been corrected. It originally stated that the storm was responsible for 30% of the deforestation in the entire Amazon region, when that figure
was meant to reflect only the Manaus region.
http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2010/07/amazon-hit-by-its-own-katrina.html
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2009
Tempo no Brasil e no mundo
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Manaus, 19/05/09 – foto Portal Amazônia
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El Niño “modoki”
Início: julho 2009
Pico: outubro 2009
Término: ~ julho 2010
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http://pt.euronews.net/2009/09/02/incendios-na-california-controlados-a-20-por-cento/
Incêndios na Califórnia controlados a 20%02/09/09 12:50 CET
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Diário Catarinense, terça-feira, 08 de setembro de 2009
Confirmado: houve tornado em SC
O meteorologista Leandro Puchalski, da Central RBS de Meteorologia, confirma a
ocorrência do tornado em Guaraciaba, no Extremo-Oeste de Santa Catarina. De
acordo com ele, a imagem de satélite da região (acima) e as fotos de árvores
cortadas ao meio (sem serem arrancadas do chão) são evidências típicas desse
tipo de fenômeno meteorológico.
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Seca dos rios atinge mais de 10 mil pessoas no Amazonas – 28/11/09
Foto: Arnoldo Santos/Especial para Terra
http://noticias.terra.com.br/brasil/noticias/0,,OI4128132-EI8139,00-
Seca+dos+rios+atinge+mais+de+mil+pessoas+no+Amazonas.html
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Pelo menos 30 pessoas morreram na madrugada de ontem em Angra dos Reis (RJ), em
decorrência de dois deslizamentos de terra. No mais grave deles, em Ilha Grande, 19 corpos foram
retirados dos escombros de sete casas e de parte da pousada Sankay. O morro veio abaixo por
volta das 3h30, quando turistas e moradores dormiam depois da comemoração do Réveillon.
Folha, 2 jan 2010
http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp/inde02012010.shl
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China abaixo de zero
Nevascas fecham aeroportos e escolas em Pequim
China, 4 jan 2010
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New York – 10 Fevereiro 2010
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Rio de Janeiro, 6-8 abril 2010
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Branquinha (AL)Folha de 22/06/10
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O que é a floresta amazônica no
contexto de ―mudanças climáticas‖?
C A R B O N O
Desmatamento (emissão), estoque,
fixação e capacidade de troca com a
atmosfera
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Modelo alométrico para estimar
carbono de árvores de floresta primária
da região de Manaus
PCtot = (2,718*DAP 1,877)*0,584*0,485
n = 494; r 2 = 0,94 e incerteza = 3,9%
PC tot = peso total (aérea + raízes) de carbono em kg
DAP = diâmetro à altura do peito em cm
Teores
Água = 41,6% (n = 774) do peso fresco
Carbono = 48,5% (n = 256) do peso seco
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BIOMASSA DE TRONCOS
Amostra para
teores H2O, C
e nutrientes e
idade
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GALHOS GROSSOS E FINOS E FOLHAS
galhos grossos
Pesagem
G.grossos
galhos finos
folhas
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BIOMASSA DE RAÍZES GROSSAS
Amostras para teores
H2O, C e nutrientes e
idade
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Biomassa fresca acima do solo
DAP = diâmetro à altura do peito em cm; BF = biomassa fresca acima do solo em kg
Tipo florestal n DAP mín DAP máx BF mín BF máx
Primária ZF-2 494 5 120.0 8.29 25.634
Primária Amapá 105 5,1 74,5 8,11 12.867
Primária Tomé-açu 127 10 138 23 30.060
Primária campinarana 100 5 50.2 9.40 5.659
Capoeira 14 anos 252 5 33.1 7.54 1.562
Capoeira 23 anos 349 5 37.2 5.38 1.690
São Gabriel 100 (?) 5
Total 1527 (?)
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Biomassa fresca de raízes grossas
Biomassa Total (raízes grossas + acima do solo) => n = 501
DAP = diâmetro à altura do peito em cm; RF = biomassa fresca de raízes em kg
Tipo florestal n DAP mín DAP máx RF mín RF máx
Primária ZF2 131 5.0 85.0 1,26 2.709
Primária Amapá 105 5,1 74,5 0,9 1.921
Primária campinarana 100 5.0 50.2 1,9 758
Capoeira 14 anos 30 5.0 33.1 0,52 79
Capoeira 23 anos 35 5.0 37.2 0,68 72
São Gabriel 100 (?)
501 (?)
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Partes da árvore contribuição água (%) % ponderada
Tronco 0.5802 38.8 22.5
Galhos grossos 0.1248 40.6 5.1
Galhos finos 0.1278 44.9 5.7
Folhas 0.0269 59.7 1.6
Raízes finas 0.0306 48.9 1.5
Raízes grossas 0.1159 44.5 5.2
Média ponderada 41.6
FLORESTA PRIMÁRIA
TEORES DE ÁGUA 774 amostras
Numa árvore em pé de 100 kg, 41,6 kg são de água pura
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Partes contribuição C (%) ponderada (%)
Tronco 0.8598 48.5 41.7
Raízes grossas 0.1159 47.0 5.4
Raízes finas 0.0306 45.7 1.4
Média ponderada 48.5
TEORES DE CARBONO
256 amostras
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u n
mm
mu m n
Parcelas temporárias
nas 2 ocasiões
Parcelas permanentes
nas 2 ocasiões
Amostragem com
repetição parcial
ALTERNATIVAS DE IFC 1ª ocasião 2ª ocasião . . . . . . . . . . . .n ocasiões
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Idades de árvores usadas na indústria de Manaus (n = 44)
Idade = 490 76 anos (IC 95%) 1
Mais velha => 1480 anos
1/ Chambers, J.Q., N. Higuchi e J.P. Schimel. 1998. Ancient Trees in Amazonia. Nature, 391:135-136.
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Estoque de C total (acima do solo + raízes grossas)
160,4 t C/ha 9,7 (IC 95%) 2
Estoque da floresta amazônica => 45,2 a 51 bilhões t C
Emissões brasileiras => ~ 234 milhões t C 3
2/ Projeto Chichuá (INPA/UFAM/UEA/EMBRAPA - FAPEAM) e Pronex Manejo Florestal (INPA, FAPEAM e CNPq)
3/ MCT 2010. Emissões de CO2 pelo Uso da Terra, Mudança do Uso da Terra e Florestas de 1994 a 2002. SEGUNDO INVENTÁRIO
BRASILEIRO DE EMISSÕES E REMOÇÕES ANTRÓPICAS DE GASES DE EFEITO ESTUFA
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Incremento anual de C total (acima do solo + raízes grossas)
0,90 t C/ha 0,33 (IC 95%) 4 e 5
Seqüestro pela floresta amazônica => 171 a 369 milhões t C
Emissões brasileiras => ~ 234 milhões t C 3
4/ Phillips, O.L., Y. Malhi, N. Higuchi, W.F. Laurance, P.V. Núñez, R.M. Vásquez, S.G. Laurance, L.V. Ferreira, M. Stern, S. Brown e J.
Grace. 1998. Changes in the Carbon Balance of Tropical Forests: Evidence from Long-Term Plots. Science, 282(5388):439-442.
5/ Higuchi, N., Chambers, J.Q., Santos, J., Ribeiro, R.J., Pinto, A.C.M., Silva, R.P., Rocha, R.M. e Tribuzy, E.S. 2005. Dinâmica e
balanço do carbono da vegetação primária da Amazônia Central. Revista Floresta , 34(3): 295-304.
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Uma micro visão (foto 3x4) de como a
floresta amazônica responde a
fenômenos meteorológicos atípicos
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3 parcelas permanentes de 1 ha cada
Medições: 1980, 1986, 1989, 1990 + anualmente
DAP mínimo = 25 cm até 1986; depois DAP = 10 cm
Precipitações médias (ano):
Embrapa (1980-2005) = 2.598 mm
ZF-2 (2000-2006) = 2.709 mm
El Nino => 1958 mm (83), 2242 mm (97), 1958 (03)
La Nina => 3.566 mm (00)
Tempestades (jan) e Seca => 2.698 mm (2005)
Comportamento de 3 hectares de floresta
primária na região de Manaus
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DINÂMICA DO C TOTAL (AÉREA + RAÍZES) DA ZF-2 => DE
1980 A 2007
Apesar de tudo ... a floresta primária continuou crescendo
100
110
120
130
140
1501980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
ano
C t
ot
(t / h
a)
R1 R2 R3
El Niño
La Niñaseca
Fixação = 0,77 t C ha-1 ano-1
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100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
ano
C t
ot
(t/h
a)
1980
2120
PROJEÇÃO DETERMINÍSTICA ?
Estoques de C:
1980 = 112 t ha-1
2120 = 224 t ha-1
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A partir de 2004, este trabalho se
voltou ao interior do Amazonas
Na expectativa de ter uma foto de
corpo inteiro do Amazonas (pelo
menos)
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Sítio ano tam (m) u.a. (n) área (ha) mín dap C tot (t)
1. Resex Baixo Juruá 2006 20x125 83 20,75 10 161,28
2. Rio Preto da Eva 2005 100x100 15 15,00 10 177,39
3. Fonte Boa 2004 20x125 72 18,00 10 167,57
4. Jutaí 2004 20x125 64 16,00 10 164,01
5. FE Maués 2005 20x125 100 25,00 10 135,27
6. Resex Auti-Paraná 2007 20x125 107 26,75 10 184,51
7. UHE Balbina 1982 20x250 120 60,00 20(*) 157,46
8. Trombetas 1982 20x125 60 15,00 20(*) 178,83
9. Manacapuru 2004 20x125 32 8,00 20(*) 152,60
10. ZF-2, Manaus 2007 100x100 3 3,00 10 198,07
11. ST-Manejo 2005 20x125 87 21,75 10 114,68
12. MIL Madeireira 2005 20x125 185 46,25 10 139,64
13. Colégio Adventista 2004 20x125 40 10,00 10 139,92
14. Resex Capanã 2008 20x125 82 20,50 10 153,07
15. Resex Rio Unini 2009 20x125 90 22,50 10 164,60
16. Flona Pau-rosa 2009 20x125 81 20,25 10 177,10
17. RDS Juma 2009 20x125 115 28,75 10 161,30
Média e IC (95%) 1336 378 160.4 9.7
Estoques de C total (parte aérea + raízes) da vegetação de alguns sítios do AM em t ha-1
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O que o carbono da Amazônia
tem a ver com as ―mudanças
climáticas globais‖?
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Setores considerados em
“mudanças climáticas globais”
Energia, Processos industriais, Agricultura e
Resíduos
+
Transporte, Produção de petróleo,
Desmatamento e Prédios comerciais &
residenciais
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Resíduo
3,4% Desmatamento
10,0%
Residências e ..
10,3%
Petróleo
11,3%Agro-ne
12,6%
Proc.industriais
16,9%
Energia
21,4%
Transporte
14,1%
Contribuição de cada setor na emissão de gases de efeito
estufa para a atmosfera (2006)
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“Mudanças climáticas globais”
Estoque => super importante
Fixação => hiper importante
Troca => ultra importante
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Concluindo ...
As florestas da Amazônia são importantes
principalmente para o Brasil
O mau uso das florestas da Amazônia afeta
principalmente a economia brasileira;
Resolver o problema do desmatamento da Amazônia
significa resolver menos de 10% das emissões de
GEEs do mundo;
A tecnologia criou o problema relacionado com o
aumento dos GEEs, a tecnologia tem que resolver este
problema.
Reciclar não basta, é preciso economizar
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