desonera†ƒo da folha de pagamento e o or†amento da seguridade social

DESONERAO DA FOLHA DE PAGAMENTO E O ORAMENTO DA SEGURIDADE SOCIAL Algumas observaes tericas e conjunturais Denise Lobato Gentil Instituto de Economia/UFRJ

Mercado de Trabalho Taxa de Desocupao (%) (2003-2010) Fonte: IBGE- PME. Elaborao: Ipea/Dimac.* Percentual mdio verificado nas regies metropolitanas (RMs): Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, So Paulo e Porto Alegre.

Mercado de Trabalho Saldo de emprego formal (Caged*) (Admisses Desligamentos ) (1996-2010)Fonte: Caged TEM. Elaborao: Ipea/Dimac.*Considera a diferena entre admisses e demisses dos trabalhadores celetistas.

FHC 1 FHC 2 Lula 1 Lula 2

Grf5

-271226-296235

-35735-296235

-581744-296235

-196001453772.25

657596453772.25

591079453772.25

762415453772.25

6454331162844

15232761162844

12539811162844

12286861162844

16173921466176.5

14522041466176.5

9951101466176.5

25246781466176.5

Fonte: Caged/MTE.

Saldo de emprego formal (1996-2010)

Saldo de emprego formal

Mdia por governo

Populao ocupada (PME)

Fonte: Ipeadata/PMEmensalmdia trimestralmdia anual

Unidade:mil

Nome da srie conforme a fonte:Populao ocupada - empregada - RMs - Pessoa(mil) - IBGE/PME - PMEN12_POCEMPR12Populao ocupada - empregada - setor pblico - com carteira assinada - RMs - Pessoa(mil) - IBGE/PME - PMEN12_POCSPUBCCART12Populao ocupada - empregada - setor privado - com carteira assinada - RMs - Pessoa(mil) - IBGE/PME - PMEN12_POCSPCCART12Populao ocupada - empregada - sem carteira assinada - RMs - Pessoa(mil) - IBGE/PME - PMEN12_POCSCART12

Nome da srie no grfico:Populao ocupada empregada nas RMsPopulao ocupada - com carteira assinada - setor pblicoPopulao ocupada com carteira assinada - setor privadoPopulao ocupada - sem carteira assinadaPopulao ocupada empregadaPopulao ocupada - com carteira assinada - setor pblicoPopulao ocupada com carteira assinada - setor privadoPopulao ocupada - sem carteira assinadaPopulao ocupada empregadaPopulao ocupada - com carteira assinada - setor pblicoPopulao ocupada com carteira assinada - setor privadoPopulao ocupada - sem carteira assinada

Jan-022002 T12002*13224.8378.77216.83775.2

Feb-022002 T212981.0853333333373.31466666677039.08966666673741.4656666667200313627.7354.97349.44058.6

Mar-0212,868.5398.6887046.3053651.632002 T313292.905376.28366666677245.7763802.757200414013.9341.57474.84292.4

Apr-0212,903.0365.5057012.9313696.9652002 T413519.09379.9337422.5323822.505200514601.3352.97865.64369.9

May-0212,989.2371.1967011.8453785.8012003 T113537.5593333333343.0117307.6454022.2666666667200614971.0367.68240.04314.5

Jun-0213,051.1383.2437092.4933741.6312003 T213517.75344.95766666677262.1224037.8446666667200715360.7359.28663.24231.3

Jul-0213,123.3379.1567144.8823750.8532003 T313618.3836666667368.25933333337309.44433333334076.3006666667200816026.2356.29303.54157.2

Aug-0213,340.5388.57291.5373808.2322003 T413837.1636666667354.79866666677411.24183.9103333333200916174.5385.49509.34033.6

Sep-0213,414.9361.1957300.9093849.1862004 T113581.364328.9447352.44866666674081.43733333332010**16820.5425.910158.73968.5

Oct-0213,454.3390.4297353.293808.4462004 T213892.7046666667342.33166666677393.70666666674276.809*a partir de maro

Nov-0213,550.6378.6827406.2083854.3242004 T314155.5713333333364.31633333337468.14733333334362.4356666667**at novembro

Dec-0213,552.4370.6887508.0983804.7452004 T414425.973330.26333333337685.0154448.7326666667

Jan-0313,563.4346.6127418.213949.782005 T114321.2766666667333.19966666677721.20066666674298.2813333333

Feb-0313,526.2363.7377483.1673868.3722005 T214593.4936666667350.4687861.10133333334365.3593333333

Mar-0313,523.1344.0227343.1243990.5662005 T314661.1486666667373.7247873.93266666674399.3476666667

Apr-0313,530.1345.4077290.9444032.1662005 T414829.1253333333354.27333333338006.33533333334416.657

May-0313,535.8339.6047288.8674044.0682006 T114757.292340.0488090.3524267.9926666667

Jun-0313,487.4349.8627206.5554037.32006 T214764.4246666667374.7368159.3924205.252

Jul-0313,482.7358.9397293.0713961.8342006 T315155.578402.3238279.65933333334424.8733333333

Aug-0313,624.5373.6127312.7074086.6852006 T415206.8486666667353.33833333338430.50266666674359.9213333333

Sep-0313,747.9372.2277322.5554180.3832007 T115076.5833333333352.7258398.61733333334221.965

Oct-0313,728.7374.0737374.0714066.0352007 T215154.7186666667347.41933333338472.43466666674233.989

Nov-0313,906.9340.547456.0624213.7752007 T315487.9413333333352.7258398.61733333334221.965

Dec-0313,875.9349.7837403.4674271.9212007 T415723.573359.36866666678415.8494228.2883333333

Jan-0413,599.9330.1527370.1874089.3182008 T115633.705349.97166666679086.0424044.4326666667

Feb-0413,559.3320.4897336.2214076.0012008 T215925.5713333333363.91666666679249.58266666674108.997

Mar-0413,584.8336.1917350.9384078.9932008 T316176.2336666667354.199304.45066666674289.4916666667

Apr-0413,738.2325.1427335.9044228.2012008 T416369.1223333333356.92133333339573.86566666674185.9206666667

May-0413,952.9345.8277417.6664303.9422009 T115964.147362.86566666679400.09866666673940.4023333333

Jun-0413,987.1356.0267427.554298.2842009 T216019.6076666667393.77266666679440.76766666673979.1423333333

Jul-0414,082.3351.4457459.1264316.7092009 T316313.161386.29966666679535.39166666674103.9626666667

Aug-0414,117.5378.157415.114346.1152009 T416404.372392.07366666679632.02833333334139.38

Sep-0414,266.9363.3547530.2064424.4832010 T116521.0676666667421.6739933.19733333333937.9833333333

Oct-0414,349.0328.887625.8394421.7562010 T216746.7933333333425.855666666710131.46566666673972.441

Nov-0414,427.6336.2727727.1684400.5732010 T316979.9186666667415.906666666710253.94533333334008.8763333333

Dec-0414,501.4325.6387702.0384523.869

Jan-0514,300.5324.2927631.774357.927

Feb-0514,299.6340.4667745.9384272.955

Mar-0514,363.7334.8417785.8944263.962

Apr-0514,474.7331.9447780.0964336.766

May-0514,674.1355.6427915.7954372.998

Jun-0514,631.7363.8187887.4134386.314

Jul-0514,621.7359.77843.0154392.919

Aug-0514,623.7387.4567842.1214403.609

Sep-0514,738.1374.0167936.6624401.515

Oct-0514,757.2358.7997917.9674435.173

Nov-0514,819.9343.717973.1954420.27

Dec-0514,910.2360.3118127.8444394.528

Jan-0614,831.2344.2748085.9974370.412

Feb-0614,745.1338.5358107.5134237.558

Mar-0614,695.6337.3358077.5464196.008

Apr-0614,738.9365.7198149.6144176.08

May-0614,736.5372.2678182.4524175.65

Jun-0614,817.9386.2228146.114264.026

Jul-0614,995.7409.478211.9934346.562

Aug-0615,146.9395.9048275.8974406.249

Sep-0615,324.1401.5958351.0884521.809

Oct-0615,237.1364.1418412.3764396.999

Nov-0615,222.2347.6228422.9074362.495

Dec-0615,161.3348.2528456.2254320.27

Jan-0715,058.2338.9328387.0084226.639

Feb-0715,054.2363.2268403.2714183.175

Mar-0715,117.4356.0178405.5734256.081

Apr-0715,115.3358.8638438.7034245.609

May-0715,121.5349.9978470.5024202.891

Jun-0715,227.4333.3988508.0994253.467

Jul-0715,330.1371.5058607.294238.176

Aug-0715,490.1387.5398818.5684193.715

Sep-0715,643.6388.0828891.2814262.825

Oct-0715,713.3373.0298948.3414262.022

Nov-0715,763.9348.839076.784203.182

Dec-0715,693.5341.5029003.4124248.39

Jan-0815,655.6352.5349081.5894110.356

Feb-0815,567.8356.789073.3223992.181

Mar-0815,677.7340.6019103.2154030.761

Apr-0815,821.8360.6849233.0044049.192

May-0815,917.33609236.3634115.376

Jun-0816,037.6371.0669279.3814162.423

Jul-0816,064.9361.9439237.9484257.177

Aug-0816,170.4346.3819288.3544295.928

Sep-0816,293.4354.2469387.054315.37

Oct-0816,437.5358.3149565.0184244.46

Nov-0816,327.2343.1119539.1224194.399

Dec-0816,342.7369.3399617.4574118.903

Jan-0916,087.8352.9389488.6633958.392

Feb-0915,897.5367.2979379.8783943.986

Mar-0915,907.1368.3629331.7553918.829

Apr-0915,923.5372.5269413.213934.118

May-0916,011.2408.0629429.6843999.176

Jun-0916,124.2400.739479.4094004.133

Jul-0916,277.1410.3019621.3664019.569

Aug-0916,310.6382.519549.8574065.074

Sep-0916,341.5385.9959521.2154141.436

Oct-0916,287.3390.3949535.1034105.378

Nov-0916,366.7403.2049610.0184120.179

Dec-0916,559.1382.6239750.9644192.583

Jan-1016,450.1415.7199822.1043982.41

Feb-1016,529.3402.3499977.7343911.483

Mar-1016,583.8446.9519999.7543920.057

Apr-1016,720.5417.0210117.0883948.741

May-1016,741.4444.28210127.5983975.182

Jun-1016,778.5416.26510149.7113993.4

Jul-1016,861.4398.57910190.1043998.194

Aug-1016,951.7418.84810234.5284015.813

Sep-1017,126.6430.29310337.2044012.622

Oct-1017,147.1439.16510340.1984012.792

Nov-1017,135.4455.72810449.2153882.368

SriesPopulao ocupada - empregada - RMs - Pessoa(mil) - IBGE/PME - PMEN12_POCEMPR12Populao ocupada - empregada - setor pblico - com carteira assinada - RMs - Pessoa(mil) - IBGE/PME - PMEN12_POCSPUBCCART12Populao ocupada - empregada - setor privado - com carteira assinada - RMs - Pessoa(mil) - IBGE/PME - PMEN12_POCSPCCART12Populao ocupada - empregada - sem carteira assinada - RMs - Pessoa(mil) - IBGE/PME - PMEN12_POCSCART12

ComentriosRegies metropolitanas (RMs): Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, So Paulo e Porto Alegre.Regies metropolitanas (RMs): Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, So Paulo e Porto Alegre.Regies metropolitanas (RMs): Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, So Paulo e Porto Alegre.Regies metropolitanas (RMs):