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Captulo 1 ENTORNO ECONMICO. Lic. Gerardo Cruz Vasconcelos Presidente del Comit Tcnico Nacional de Estudios Econmicos Director de Estudios Econmicos de Cemex Mxico. La economa mundial se desacelerar ligeramente en 2007. PIB Global 2006 - 2007. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Captulo 1ENTORNO ECONMICOLic. Gerardo Cruz VasconcelosPresidente del Comit Tcnico Nacional de Estudios EconmicosDirector de Estudios Econmicos de Cemex Mxico

  • La economa mundial se desacelerar ligeramenteen 2007PIB Global 2006 - 2007Fuente: IMF. World Economic Outlook, September 2006

    Estimaciones2004200520062007Produccin Mundial5.34.95.14.9Economas Avanzadas3.22.63.12.7Estados Unidos3.93.23.42.9rea del Euro2.11.32.42.0Alemania1.20.92.01.3Francia2.01.22.42.3Italia1.1-1.51.3Espaa3.13.43.43.0Japn2.32.62.72.1

  • En Mxico, la estabilidad se consolida Tasa de crecimiento del PIB real 1991 2006*(%)Fuente: Banco de Mxico* 2006: Encuesta de Expectativas de Banco de Mxico, Octubre 2006

    Cuenta Cte Trim Flujos Miles US

    perodo: Ene-Mar 1960 - Oct-Dic 2005periodicidad: Trimestral

    cifra: Flujosunidad: Miles de Dlares

    Cuenta Corriente

    FECHASE1

    Ene-Mar 1990-2190885.0

    Abr-Jun 1990-1658793.0

    Jul-Sep 1990-1778307.0

    Oct-Dic 1990-1823055.0-7451040.0

    Ene-Mar 1991-2143009.0-7403164.0

    Abr-Jun 1991-3851915.0-9596286.0

    Jul-Sep 1991-4157603.0-11975582.0

    Oct-Dic 1991-4494197.0-14646724.0

    Ene-Mar 1992-5151341.0-17655056.0

    Abr-Jun 1992-5897806.0-19700947.0

    Jul-Sep 1992-6854989.0-22398333.0

    Oct-Dic 1992-6534342.0-24438478.0

    Ene-Mar 1993-5661103.0-24948240.0

    Abr-Jun 1993-5645049.0-24695483.0

    Jul-Sep 1993-6666141.0-24506635.0

    Oct-Dic 1993-5426915.0-23399208.0

    Ene-Mar 1994-6781475.0-24519580.0

    Abr-Jun 1994-7475849.0-26350380.0

    Jul-Sep 1994-7908390.0-27592629.0

    Oct-Dic 1994-7496245.0-29661959.0

    Ene-Mar 1995-1354637.0-24235121.0

    Abr-Jun 1995356374.0-16402898.0

    Jul-Sep 1995-450438.0-8944946.0

    Oct-Dic 1995-127988.0-1576689.0

    Ene-Mar 1996-163389.0-385441.0

    Abr-Jun 1996255174.0-486641.0

    Jul-Sep 1996-864590.8-900793.8

    Oct-Dic 1996-1734829.0-2507634.8

    Ene-Mar 1997-219820.0-2564065.8

    Abr-Jun 1997-1183858.0-4003097.8

    Jul-Sep 1997-2590213.0-5728720.0

    Oct-Dic 1997-3671110.0-7665001.0

    Ene-Mar 1998-3279630.6-10724811.6

    Abr-Jun 1998-3392612.8-12933566.4

    Jul-Sep 1998-4714109.2-15057462.6

    Oct-Dic 1998-4606310.4-15992663.0

    Ene-Mar 1999-3625344.4-16338376.8

    Abr-Jun 1999-2845225.0-15790989.0

    Jul-Sep 1999-3148397.1-14225276.9

    Oct-Dic 1999-4297197.8-13916164.3

    Ene-Mar 2000-4882532.4-15173352.3

    Abr-Jun 2000-3486175.5-15814302.8

    Jul-Sep 2000-4022678.4-16688584.1

    Oct-Dic 2000-6236900.6-18628286.9

    Ene-Mar 2001-4768987.5-18514742.0

    Abr-Jun 2001-3574418.2-18602984.7

    Jul-Sep 2001-3321196.4-17901502.7

    Oct-Dic 2001-5980003.7-17644605.8

    Ene-Mar 2002-3275703.6-16151321.9

    Abr-Jun 2002-2790325.0-15367228.7

    Jul-Sep 2002-3209295.1-15255327.4

    Oct-Dic 2002-4249140.5-13524464.2

    Ene-Mar 2003-2245092.6-12493853.2

    Abr-Jun 2003-1820087.1-11523615.3

    Jul-Sep 2003-1806406.1-10120726.3

    Oct-Dic 2003-2749403.7-8620989.5

    Ene-Mar 2004-1434174.2-7810071.1

    Abr-Jun 2004-202108.2-6192092.2

    Jul-Sep 2004-893474.4-5279160.5

    Oct-Dic 2004-4649814.2-7179571.0

    Ene-Mar 2005-3020125.7-8765522.5

    Abr-Jun 2005297284.9-8266129.4

    Jul-Sep 2005-303786.5-7676441.5

    Oct-Dic 2005-2681719.8-5708347.1

    SE1

    PIB Nominal Mills Pesos

    perodo: 1988 - 2003periodicidad: Anual

    cifra: Flujos Corrientesunidad: Millones de Pesos

    PIB Nominal

    FECHA

    1990738897.5

    1991949147.6

    19921125334.3

    19931256196.0

    19941420159.5

    19951837019.1

    19962525575.0

    19973174275.2

    19983846349.9

    19994594724.2

    20005491708.4

    20015809688.2

    20026263136.6

    20036891433.8

    Sheet3

    TC Fix Nominal Prom mesProm Trim

    32874.02.6604

    32905.02.6900

    32933.02.71952.6900

    32964.02.75022.7199

    32994.02.78042.7500

    33025.02.80742.7793

    33055.02.83172.8065

    33086.02.85652.8319

    33117.02.88102.8564

    33147.02.90542.8810

    33178.02.92782.9047

    33208.02.94092.9247

    33239.02.95322.9406

    33270.02.96502.9530

    33298.02.97692.9650

    33329.02.98902.9770

    33359.03.00122.9890

    33390.03.01343.0012

    33420.03.02563.0134

    33451.03.03803.0257

    33482.03.05023.0379

    33512.03.06243.0502

    33543.03.06983.0608

    33573.03.07003.0674

    33604.03.06853.0694

    33635.03.06363.0674

    33664.03.06643.0662

    33695.03.06803.0660

    33725.03.09803.0775

    33756.03.11853.0948

    33786.03.11653.1110

    33817.03.09133.1088

    33848.03.08623.0980

    33878.03.11853.0987

    33909.03.11983.1082

    33939.03.11823.1188

    33970.03.11003.1160

    34001.03.09893.1090

    34029.03.10833.1057

    34060.03.09553.1009

    34090.03.12273.1088

    34121.03.12133.1132

    34151.03.12363.1225

    34182.03.11263.1192

    34213.03.11273.1163

    34243.03.11423.1132

    34274.03.15533.1274

    34304.03.10773.1257

    34335.03.10753.1235

    34366.03.11153.1089

    34394.03.28413.1677

    34425.03.35363.2497

    34455.03.31203.3166

    34486.03.36073.3421

    34516.03.40093.3579

    34547.03.38213.3812

    34578.03.39983.3943

    34608.03.41583.3992

    34639.03.44263.4194

    34669.03.93083.5964

    34700.05.51334.2956

    34731.05.68545.0432

    34759.06.70195.9669

    34790.06.29966.2290

    34820.05.96276.3214

    34851.06.22326.1618

    34881.06.13946.1084

    34912.06.19096.1845

    34943.06.30256.2109

    34973.06.69116.3948

    35004.07.65846.8840

    35034.07.65977.3364

    35065.07.50487.6076

    35096.07.50427.5562

    35125.07.57367.5275

    35156.07.47137.5164

    35186.07.43457.4931

    35217.07.54257.4828

    35247.07.62297.5333

    35278.07.51417.5598

    35309.07.54477.5606

    35339.07.68517.5813

    35370.07.91897.7162

    35400.07.87677.8269

    35431.07.82997.8752

    35462.07.79267.8331

    35490.07.96287.8618

    35521.07.90377.8864

    35551.07.90577.9241

    35582.07.94657.9186

    35612.07.88577.9126

    35643.07.78437.8722

    35674.07.77927.8164

    35704.07.81147.7916

    35735.08.28377.9581

    35765.08.13608.0770

    35796.08.17988.1998

    35827.08.49328.2697

    35855.08.56898.4140

    35886.08.49968.5206

    35916.08.56128.5432

    35947.08.89488.6519

    35977.08.90408.7867

    36008.09.25969.0195

    36039.010.21549.4597

    36069.010.15239.8758

    36100.09.987410.1184

    36130.09.911710.0171

    36161.010.110410.0032

    36192.010.015010.0124

    36220.09.76949.9649

    36251.09.44619.7435

    36281.09.36239.5259

    36312.09.54189.4501

    36342.09.36719.4237

    36373.09.39819.4357

    36404.09.34039.3685

    36434.09.54039.4262

    36465.09.42059.4337

    36495.09.41519.4586

    36526.09.47939.4383

    36557.09.44569.4467

    36586.09.29599.4069

    36617.09.37489.3721

    36647.09.50819.3929

    36678.09.79789.5602

    36708.09.46889.5916

    36739.09.28469.5171

    36770.09.33199.3618

    36800.09.51829.3782

    36831.09.51799.4560

    36861.09.44399.4933

    36892.09.77019.5773

    36923.09.70279.6389

    36951.09.61829.6970

    36982.09.35089.5572

    37012.09.14679.3719

    37043.09.09579.1977

    37073.09.15609.1328

    37104.09.12729.1263

    37135.09.38419.2224

    37165.09.36859.2933

    37196.09.22239.3250

    37226.09.16729.2527

    37257.09.16149.1836

    37288.09.10629.1449

    37316.09.08099.1162

    37347.09.13179.1063

    37377.09.48999.2342

    37408.09.73789.4531

    37438.09.79789.6752

    37469.09.82589.7871

    37500.010.04259.8887

    37530.010.09619.9881

    37561.010.203210.1139

    37591.010.198210.1658

    37622.010.576210.3259

    37653.010.921610.5653

    37681.010.942710.8135

    37712.010.632410.8322

    37742.010.250610.6086

    37773.010.495310.4594

    37803.010.443410.3964

    37834.010.732710.5571

    37865.010.925510.7005

    37895.011.170410.9429

    37926.011.114511.0701

    37956.011.262911.1826

    37987.010.930811.1027

    38018.011.012811.0688

    38047.010.998410.9807

    38078.011.253511.0882

    38108.011.511911.2546

    38139.011.379011.3815

    38169.011.473511.4548

    38200.011.395711.4161

    38231.011.485811.4517

    38261.011.386411.4226

    38292.011.393811.4220

    38322.011.210011.3301

    38353.011.255611.2865

    38384.011.150211.2053

    38412.011.132611.1795

    38443.011.126211.1363

    38473.010.992011.0836

    38504.010.834010.9841

    38534.010.693110.8397

    38565.010.670310.7325

    38596.010.779110.7142

    38626.010.831210.7602

    38657.010.690310.7669

    38687.010.620110.7139

    38718.010.5679

    38749.010.4813

    Sheet5

    19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006

    Mexico1.93.82.93.22.82.11.41.11.10.8

    CCte a PIB

    2.949266534

    4.7334430596

    6.773057553

    5.822314704

    6.9796801625

    0.5426692842

    0.6780844393

    1.9

    3.8

    2.9

    3.2

    2.8

    2.1

    1.4

    1.1

    1.1

    Calculo CCTE Pib

    Cta Cte Flujos Anuales Miles USDTCN Fix PromCta Cte Mills PesosPIB Mills PesosDef CCTE/PIB

    1990-1823055-74510402.9247-21792738,8982.9

    1991-4494197-146467243.0674-44927949,1484.7

    1992-6534342-244384783.1188-762201,125,3346.8

    1993-5426915-233992083.1257-731401,256,1965.8

    1994-7496245-296619593.5964-1066761,528,3837.0

    1995-127988-15766897.3364-115672,131,5420.5

    1996-1734829-2507634.87.8269-196272,894,4780.7

    1997-3671110-76650018.0770-619103,538,2861.9

    1998-4606310.4-1599266310.0171-1602014,199,3533.8

    1999-4297197.8-13916164.39.4