apÊndice a estações rádio bases (erb) tabela 22: amostra ......macapa ap 416.037 16 30 35 16 35...
TRANSCRIPT
117
APÊNDICE A – Estações Rádio Bases (ERB)
Tabela 22: Amostra das ERBs existente por cidade
Localidade UF População Total Claro Vivo TIM Oi Melhor
Brasilia DF 2.650.451 366 268 355 385 385
Fortaleza CE 2.501.236 137 167 217 236 236
Recife PE 1.555.378 135 157 151 240 240
Salvador BA 2.711.674 201 145 214 235 235
Belo Horizonte MG 2.396.173 235 288 309 253 309
Rio De Janeiro RJ 6.391.651 699 599 762 700 762
Cuiaba MT 561.547 89 62 54 76 89
Natal RN 817.883 64 79 68 82 82
Manaus AM 1.863.345 121 201 157 109 201
Sao Paulo SP 11.422.087 1010 791 886 873 1010
Curitiba PR 1.777.264 190 142 202 212 212
Porto Alegre RS 1.416.847 187 150 120 213 213
Campo Grande MS 805.821 114 49 62 96 114
Goiania GO 1.334.495 154 92 101 190 190
Sao Luis MA 1.040.177 65 70 84 111 111
Teresina PI 830.577 68 61 59 59 68
Joao Pessoa PB 742.921 50 69 66 90 90
Jaboatao Dos Guararapes PE 654.995 26 44 33 48 48
Maceio AL 953.585 71 90 81 86 90
Aracaju SE 588.101 35 65 42 55 65
Feira De Santana BA 568.351 39 15 27 22 39
Porto Velho RO 443.058 54 38 26 43 54
Rio Branco AC 348.675 29 29 14 34 34
Boa Vista RR 297.314 13 26 21 9 26
Belem PA 1.410.767 113 93 153 104 153
Macapa AP 416.037 16 30 35 16 35
Palmas TO 242.512 29 13 19 50 50
Uberlandia MG 619.896 51 50 47 56 56
Contagem MG 614.032 36 43 35 39 43
Juiz De Fora MG 525.413 44 44 37 54 54
Vitoria ES 333.274 38 53 36 39 53
Duque De Caxias RJ 867.310 68 29 39 40 68
Nova Iguacu RJ 801.847 53 25 30 33 53
Sao Goncalo RJ 1.016.470 58 32 47 63 63
Ribeirao Preto SP 620.093 70 40 45 50 70
Campinas SP 1.097.176 121 101 79 92 121
Sorocaba SP 601.012 38 41 44 51 51 Fonte: Adaptado de Anatel (2013)
118
APÊNDICE B – Evolução do público alvo
Tabela 23: População e domicílios - público alvo (em milhões)
Pop. Urbana 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Claro 16,62 27,61 40,67 50,84 72,81 75,79 79,55 92,55
Vivo 16,62 27,61 40,67 50,84 72,81 75,79 79,55 92,55
TIM 16,62 27,61 40,67 50,84 71,69 73,54 75,76 88,73
Oi 16,62 27,61 40,67 50,84 71,69 73,54 75,76 88,73
Pop. Urbana 2.021 2.022 2.023 2.024 2.025 2.026 2.027 2.028
Claro 103,30 112,58 116,92 118,09 119,27 120,47 121,67
Vivo 103,30 112,58 116,92 118,09 119,27 120,47 121,67
TIM 99,44 108,68 111,37 112,49 113,61 114,75 115,90
Oi 99,44 108,68 111,37 112,49 113,61 114,75 115,90
Dom. Rural 2.013 2.014 2.015 2.016 2.017 2.018 2.019 2.020
Claro
0,85 1,42 1,42 2,73 2,73 2,73 2,73
Vivo
0,85 1,42 1,42 2,73 2,73 2,73 2,73
TIM
0,43 0,71 0,71 1,37 1,37 1,37 1,37
Oi 0,43 0,71 0,71 1,37 1,37 1,37 1,37
Dom. Rural 2.021 2.022 2.023 2.024 2.025 2.026 2.027 2.028
Claro 2,73 2,73 2,73 2,73 2,73 2,73 2,73
Vivo 2,73 2,73 2,73 2,73 2,73 2,73 2,73
TIM 1,37 1,37 1,37 1,37 1,37 1,37 1,37
Oi 1,37 1,37 1,37 1,37 1,37 1,37 1,37
Dom. Urbano 2.013 2.014 2.015 2.016 2.017 2.018 2.019 2.020
Claro
16,05 23,64 29,55 42,31 44,04 46,23 50,44
Vivo
16,05 23,64 29,55 42,31 44,04 46,23 50,44
TIM
16,05 23,64 29,55 42,31 43,39 44,69 48,89
Oi 16,05 23,64 29,55 42,31 43,39 44,69 48,89
Dom. Urbano 2.021 2.022 2.023 2.024 2.025 2.026 2.027 2.028
Claro 53,97 57,03 58,58 59,17 59,76 60,35 60,96
Vivo 53,97 57,03 58,58 59,17 59,76 60,35 60,96
TIM 52,40 55,45 56,49 57,06 57,63 58,20 58,79
Oi 52,40 55,45 56,49 57,06 57,63 58,20 58,79 Fonte: Adaptado de Anatel (2012) e IBGE (2013)
119
APÊNDICE C – Resultados da empresa Claro
Tabela 24: Fluxo de caixa base e expandido - Claro
Fonte: Resultados da pesquisa
4G -
Fai
xa 2
,5 G
Hz
sem
fle
xib
ilid
ade
s
Inve
stim
en
tos
(CA
PEX
)20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Lice
nça
s +
Gar
anti
as A
nat
el
91.9
13.6
0380
5.32
2.86
95.
814.
204
4.30
0.32
22.
559.
076
24.2
8513
.879
LTE
e-N
od
eB
(ER
B)
103.
793.
400
89.9
40.3
7525
8.25
7.36
334
5.52
0.30
328
2.97
3.16
715
5.19
4.53
017
.640
.057
95.7
20.8
5289
.171
.531
81.6
14.6
2173
.453
.159
66.1
07.8
4359
.497
.059
53.5
47.3
5348
.192
.618
LTE
Ne
two
rk17
2.98
9.00
014
9.90
0.62
543
0.42
8.93
857
5.86
7.17
147
1.62
1.94
525
8.65
7.54
929
.400
.094
159.
534.
754
148.
619.
218
136.
024.
369
122.
421.
932
110.
179.
739
99.1
61.7
6589
.245
.588
80.3
21.0
30
LTE
Ou
tro
s69
.195
.600
59.9
60.2
5017
2.17
1.57
523
0.34
6.86
918
8.64
8.77
810
3.46
3.02
011
.760
.038
63.8
13.9
0159
.447
.687
54.4
09.7
4848
.968
.773
44.0
71.8
9639
.664
.706
35.6
98.2
3532
.128
.412
Tota
l CA
PEX
91.9
13.6
031.
151.
300.
869
305.
615.
454
865.
158.
197
1.15
4.29
3.41
894
3.26
8.17
451
7.32
8.97
858
.800
.189
319.
069.
507
297.
238.
436
272.
048.
738
244.
843.
864
220.
359.
478
198.
323.
530
178.
491.
177
160.
642.
059
OP
EX20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Man
ute
nçã
o e
Su
po
rte
17.2
98.9
0032
.288
.963
75.3
31.8
5613
2.91
8.57
318
0.08
0.76
820
5.94
6.52
320
8.88
6.53
222
4.84
0.00
823
9.70
1.92
925
3.30
4.36
626
5.54
6.55
927
6.56
4.53
328
6.48
0.71
029
5.40
5.26
9
Alu
gue
l de
to
rre
e s
ite
560.
807
1.13
5.16
35.
325.
020
28.2
76.5
9141
.568
.129
58.2
62.4
4762
.285
.080
65.0
87.9
0868
.016
.864
71.0
77.6
2373
.793
.492
76.6
93.0
4879
.595
.464
83.0
01.2
4686
.552
.368
Ene
rgia
elé
tric
a4.
060.
324
12.5
27.2
9929
.986
.435
63.4
59.5
9010
3.29
7.39
313
6.54
3.74
815
5.07
9.11
916
3.46
2.55
017
0.81
8.36
517
8.50
5.19
218
6.53
7.92
519
4.93
2.13
220
3.70
4.07
821
2.87
0.76
122
2.44
9.94
5
Tota
l OP
EX0
4.62
1.13
030
.961
.362
67.6
00.4
1716
7.06
8.03
827
7.78
4.09
537
4.88
6.96
242
3.31
0.72
243
7.43
6.99
146
3.67
5.23
748
9.28
4.74
451
3.63
5.78
453
7.17
1.73
955
9.86
4.07
658
2.35
2.71
760
4.40
7.58
2
Flu
xo d
e C
aixa
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Re
ceit
a B
ruta
Se
rviç
os
4G49
.702
.169
187.
844.
268
340.
991.
864
812.
793.
582
2.60
2.50
7.10
24.
562.
943.
589
5.57
1.98
6.63
26.
475.
907.
761
7.71
4.77
2.22
19.
033.
210.
497
10.1
18.4
78.2
4210
.851
.252
.017
11.5
00.0
00.7
2512
.180
.847
.470
13.0
40.8
16.4
52
Re
ceit
a d
up
lica
da
-11.
315.
275
-30.
115.
364
-46.
491.
011
-114
.225
.839
-3
83.9
38.4
25
-710
.166
.012
-8
73.0
75.3
39
-1.0
27.3
87.3
64
-1.2
35.1
97.8
37
-1.4
34.5
52.5
56
-1.5
82.3
43.3
11
-1.6
60.0
86.6
17
-1.7
17.0
87.1
69
-1.7
75.0
61.7
24
-1.8
54.7
32.4
38
Re
ceit
a Lí
qu
ida
26.9
78.2
1311
0.85
1.47
920
6.97
4.46
349
0.95
1.66
31.
559.
204.
520
2.70
7.72
2.45
03.
302.
383.
109
3.82
9.20
6.51
44.
553.
828.
678
5.34
0.31
7.80
45.
999.
174.
289
6.45
9.52
8.06
66.
875.
407.
190
7.31
3.16
0.20
87.
861.
551.
879
EBIT
DA
Incr
em
en
tal
6.76
1.85
727
.783
.971
51.8
76.3
7012
3.05
2.81
539
0.80
1.21
267
8.66
7.36
082
7.71
3.94
395
9.75
7.70
11.
141.
378.
019
1.33
8.50
4.75
81.
503.
641.
474
1.61
9.02
5.19
11.
723.
261.
719
1.83
2.98
0.75
11.
970.
430.
410
De
pre
ciaç
ão0
-34.
597.
800
-64.
577.
925
-150
.663
.713
-2
65.8
37.1
47
-360
.161
.536
-4
11.8
93.0
46
-417
.773
.064
-4
49.6
80.0
15
-479
.403
.859
-5
06.6
08.7
33
-496
.495
.319
-4
88.5
51.1
42
-422
.297
.707
-3
24.9
73.3
91
Am
ort
izaç
ão L
ice
nça
s-6
.127
.574
-5
9.81
5.76
5 -6
0.20
3.37
8 -6
0.49
0.06
7 -6
0.66
0.67
2 -6
0.66
2.29
1 -6
0.66
3.21
6 -6
0.66
3.21
6 -6
0.66
3.21
6 -6
0.66
3.21
6 -6
0.66
3.21
6 -6
0.66
3.21
6 -6
0.66
3.21
6 -6
0.66
3.21
6 -6
0.66
3.21
6
Lucr
o B
ruto
634.
284
-66.
629.
594
-72.
904.
933
-88.
100.
964
64.3
03.3
9325
7.84
3.53
335
5.15
7.68
248
1.32
1.42
163
1.03
4.78
879
8.43
7.68
493
6.36
9.52
51.
061.
866.
656
1.17
4.04
7.36
21.
350.
019.
828
1.58
4.79
3.80
3
Pro
jeçã
o d
e IR
PJ+
CSL
L-2
15.6
56
22.6
54.0
6224
.787
.677
29.9
54.3
28-2
1.86
3.15
4 -8
7.66
6.80
1 -1
20.7
53.6
12
-163
.649
.283
-2
14.5
51.8
28
-271
.468
.813
-3
18.3
65.6
39
-361
.034
.663
-3
99.1
76.1
03
-459
.006
.741
-5
38.8
29.8
93
Re
sult
ado
Op
era
cio
nal
6.54
6.20
150
.438
.033
76.6
64.0
4815
3.00
7.14
336
8.93
8.05
859
1.00
0.55
870
6.96
0.33
179
6.10
8.41
892
6.82
6.19
11.
067.
035.
946
1.18
5.27
5.83
51.
257.
990.
528
1.32
4.08
5.61
61.
373.
974.
009
1.43
1.60
0.51
7
Inve
stim
en
tos
(CA
PEX
)-3
.726
.271
.276
Var
iaçã
o C
CL
-652
.873
-2
.029
.733
-2
.326
.176
-6
.872
.248
-2
5.85
1.71
9 -2
7.79
4.13
4 -1
4.39
0.78
8 -1
2.74
9.12
6 -1
7.53
5.85
6 -1
9.03
3.03
7 -1
5.94
4.32
7 -1
1.14
0.56
1 -1
0.06
4.27
5 -1
0.59
3.62
3 -1
3.27
1.07
8
Flu
xo d
e C
aixa
Liv
re-3
.726
.271
.276
5.
893.
328
48.4
08.3
0074
.337
.871
146.
134.
894
343.
086.
339
563.
206.
424
692.
569.
543
783.
359.
292
909.
290.
334
1.04
8.00
2.90
91.
169.
331.
508
1.24
6.84
9.96
71.
314.
021.
341
1.36
3.38
0.38
61.
418.
329.
438
4G -
Fai
xa 2
,5 G
Hz
com
aq
uis
ição
da
faix
a d
e 7
00 M
hz
em
201
5
Inve
stim
en
tos
(CA
PEX
)20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Lice
nça
s +
Gar
anti
as A
nat
el
91.9
13.6
0380
5.32
2.86
95.
814.
204
4.30
0.32
271
.937
.554
607.
366.
792
3.16
2.82
41.
407.
699
104.
075
LTE
e-N
od
eB
(ER
B)
103.
793.
400
89.9
40.3
7525
8.25
7.36
310
4.78
9.34
013
0.30
4.68
458
.118
.620
11.8
71.6
4555
.914
.304
52.0
88.5
8947
.674
.302
42.9
06.8
7138
.616
.184
34.7
54.5
6631
.279
.109
28.1
51.1
98
LTE
Ne
two
rk17
2.98
9.00
014
9.90
0.62
543
0.42
8.93
817
4.64
8.89
921
7.17
4.47
496
.864
.366
19.7
86.0
7493
.190
.507
86.8
14.3
1579
.457
.169
71.5
11.4
5264
.360
.307
57.9
24.2
7752
.131
.849
46.9
18.6
64
LTE
Ou
tro
s69
.195
.600
59.9
60.2
5017
2.17
1.57
569
.859
.560
86.8
69.7
9038
.745
.746
7.91
4.43
037
.276
.203
34.7
25.7
2631
.782
.868
28.6
04.5
8125
.744
.123
23.1
69.7
1120
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18.7
67.4
66
Tota
l CA
PEX
91.9
13.6
031.
151.
300.
869
305.
615.
454
865.
158.
197
421.
235.
352
1.04
1.71
5.74
019
6.89
1.55
640
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186.
485.
090
173.
628.
629
158.
914.
339
143.
022.
905
128.
720.
614
115.
848.
553
104.
263.
698
93.8
37.3
28
OP
EX20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Man
ute
nçã
o e
Su
po
rte
17.2
98.9
0032
.288
.963
75.3
31.8
5692
.796
.746
114.
514.
194
124.
200.
630
126.
179.
238
135.
498.
288
144.
179.
720
152.
125.
437
159.
276.
582
165.
712.
613
171.
505.
040
176.
718.
225
Alu
gue
l de
to
rre
e s
ite
560.
807
1.13
5.16
35.
325.
020
10.4
56.5
6212
.812
.360
15.8
22.1
4616
.726
.841
17.4
79.5
4918
.266
.129
19.0
88.1
0519
.947
.070
20.8
44.6
8821
.782
.699
22.7
62.9
2023
.787
.251
Ene
rgia
elé
tric
a4.
060.
324
12.5
27.2
9929
.986
.435
50.3
04.3
9466
.495
.932
81.7
48.1
2181
.289
.984
95.4
84.8
8799
.781
.707
104.
271.
884
108.
964.
119
113.
867.
504
118.
991.
542
124.
346.
161
129.
941.
739
Tota
l OP
EX0
4.62
1.13
030
.961
.362
67.6
00.4
1713
6.09
2.81
317
2.10
5.03
821
2.08
4.46
022
2.21
7.45
623
9.14
3.67
425
3.54
6.12
526
7.53
9.70
928
1.03
6.62
529
3.98
8.77
430
6.48
6.85
331
8.61
4.12
233
0.44
7.21
5
Flu
xo d
e C
aixa
Liv
re20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Re
ceit
a B
ruta
Se
rviç
os
4G49
.702
.169
187.
844.
268
340.
991.
864
812.
793.
582
2.60
2.50
7.10
24.
562.
943.
589
5.57
1.98
6.63
26.
475.
907.
761
7.71
4.77
2.22
19.
033.
210.
497
10.1
18.4
78.2
4210
.851
.252
.017
11.5
00.0
00.7
2512
.180
.847
.470
13.0
40.8
16.4
52
Re
ceit
a d
up
lica
da
-11.
315.
275
-30.
115.
364
-46.
491.
011
-114
.225
.839
-3
83.9
38.4
25
-710
.166
.012
-8
73.0
75.3
39
-1.0
27.3
87.3
64
-1.2
35.1
97.8
37
-1.4
34.5
52.5
56
-1.5
82.3
43.3
11
-1.6
60.0
86.6
17
-1.7
17.0
87.1
69
-1.7
75.0
61.7
24
-1.8
54.7
32.4
38
Re
ceit
a Lí
qu
ida
26.9
78.2
1311
0.85
1.47
920
6.97
4.46
349
0.95
1.66
31.
559.
204.
520
2.70
7.72
2.45
03.
302.
383.
109
3.82
9.20
6.51
44.
553.
828.
678
5.34
0.31
7.80
45.
999.
174.
289
6.45
9.52
8.06
66.
875.
407.
190
7.31
3.16
0.20
87.
861.
551.
879
EBIT
DA
Incr
em
en
tal
6.76
1.85
727
.783
.971
51.8
76.3
7012
3.05
2.81
539
0.80
1.21
267
8.66
7.36
082
7.71
3.94
395
9.75
7.70
11.
141.
378.
019
1.33
8.50
4.75
81.
503.
641.
474
1.61
9.02
5.19
11.
723.
261.
719
1.83
2.98
0.75
11.
970.
430.
410
Re
du
ção
de
Cu
sto
s0
00
30.9
75.2
2510
5.67
9.05
716
2.80
2.50
320
1.09
3.26
619
8.29
3.31
621
0.12
9.11
222
1.74
5.03
523
2.59
9.15
824
3.18
2.96
525
3.37
7.22
226
3.73
8.59
527
3.96
0.36
6
De
pre
ciaç
ão0
-34.
597.
800
-64.
577.
925
-150
.663
.713
-1
85.5
93.4
92
-229
.028
.387
-2
48.4
01.2
60
-252
.358
.475
-2
70.9
96.5
77
-288
.359
.440
-3
04.2
50.8
74
-283
.955
.364
-2
66.8
47.3
00
-192
.346
.368
-1
67.8
42.9
58
Am
ort
izaç
ão L
ice
nça
s-6
.127
.574
-5
9.81
5.76
5 -6
0.20
3.37
8 -6
0.49
0.06
7 -6
5.28
5.90
3 -1
05.7
77.0
23
-105
.987
.878
-1
06.0
81.7
24
-106
.088
.663
-1
06.0
88.6
63
-106
.088
.663
-1
06.0
88.6
63
-106
.088
.663
-1
06.0
88.6
63
-106
.088
.663
Lucr
o B
ruto
634.
284
-66.
629.
594
-72.
904.
933
-57.
125.
739
245.
600.
873
506.
664.
452
674.
418.
071
799.
610.
818
974.
421.
891
1.16
5.80
1.69
11.
325.
901.
096
1.47
2.16
4.13
01.
603.
702.
978
1.79
8.28
4.31
51.
970.
459.
155
Pro
jeçã
o d
e IR
PJ+
CSL
L-2
15.6
56
22.6
54.0
6224
.787
.677
19.4
22.7
51-8
3.50
4.29
7 -1
72.2
65.9
14
-229
.302
.144
-2
71.8
67.6
78
-331
.303
.443
-3
96.3
72.5
75
-450
.806
.373
-5
00.5
35.8
04
-545
.259
.013
-6
11.4
16.6
67
-669
.956
.113
Re
sult
ado
Op
era
cio
nal
6.54
6.20
150
.438
.033
76.6
64.0
4817
3.45
0.79
141
2.97
5.97
266
9.20
3.94
879
9.50
5.06
588
6.18
3.34
01.
020.
203.
688
1.16
3.87
7.21
81.
285.
434.
259
1.36
1.67
2.35
21.
431.
379.
929
1.48
5.30
2.67
91.
574.
434.
663
120
APÊNDICE D – Árvore binomial da Claro
Figura 7: Amostra da árvore binomial do projeto da Claro (em R$ milhões) Fonte: Resultados da pesquisa
Mo
de
lo B
ino
mia
l
Val
or
do
Ati
voV
Po
3.2
09
,78
Taxa
de
sub
ida
u1
,13
48
Pas
sos
po
r an
ot
0,1
0Ta
xa d
e q
ued
ad
0,8
81
2B
enef
ício
2.2
12
,39
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Vo
lati
tilid
ade
anu
als
40
,0%
Pro
b. d
e su
bid
ap
0,5
01
5P
. Exe
rcíc
io5
52
,97
0,00
1.23
7,09
1.51
8,31
2.33
6,12
3.38
4,38
4.15
3,45
4.43
6,86
4.22
2,76
4.25
3,42
4.23
1,72
4.15
4,13
4.01
8,64
3.86
2,68
3.68
5,61
3.54
6,99
3.48
1,61
Taxa
de
juro
s an
ual
rf8
,39
%P
rob
. de
des
cid
a1
- p
0,4
98
5
2012
2013
2014
2015
01
23
45
67
89
1011
1213
1415
1617
1819
2021
2223
2425
2627
2829
30
3.21
03.
643
4.13
44.
691
5.32
46.
042
6.85
67.
781
8.83
010
.020
11.3
7212
.905
14.6
4516
.620
18.8
6121
.404
24.2
9027
.565
31.2
8235
.500
40.2
8745
.719
51.8
8458
.880
66.8
1975
.829
86.0
5497
.657
110.
825
125.
769
142.
727
4.60
35.
006
5.47
26.
009
6.62
67.
334
8.14
39.
065
10.1
1611
.311
12.6
6914
.210
15.9
6017
.945
20.1
9622
.751
25.6
4828
.934
32.6
6336
.892
41.6
9147
.135
53.3
1260
.320
68.2
7177
.293
87.5
3099
.146
112.
326
127.
283
144.
254
2.82
83.
210
3.64
34.
134
4.69
15.
324
6.04
26.
856
7.78
18.
830
10.0
2011
.372
12.9
0514
.645
16.6
2018
.861
21.4
0424
.290
27.5
6531
.282
35.5
0040
.287
45.7
1951
.884
58.8
8066
.819
75.8
2986
.054
97.6
5711
0.82
5
4.27
54.
621
5.02
35.
489
6.02
66.
643
7.35
18.
161
9.08
410
.136
11.3
3112
.690
14.2
3215
.982
17.9
6720
.219
22.7
7325
.671
28.9
5832
.686
36.9
1641
.715
47.1
5953
.336
60.3
4468
.295
77.3
1887
.555
99.1
7111
2.35
2
2.49
22.
828
3.21
03.
643
4.13
44.
691
5.32
46.
042
6.85
67.
781
8.83
010
.020
11.3
7212
.905
14.6
4516
.620
18.8
6121
.404
24.2
9027
.565
31.2
8235
.500
40.2
8745
.719
51.8
8458
.880
66.8
1975
.829
86.0
54
1.39
3,09
3.99
94.
294
4.63
95.
041
5.50
66.
043
6.66
17.
369
8.17
99.
103
10.1
5511
.352
12.7
1114
.253
16.0
0417
.989
20.2
4222
.796
25.6
9428
.981
32.7
1036
.940
41.7
3947
.183
53.3
6060
.368
68.3
2077
.343
87.5
80
2.19
62.
492
2.82
83.
210
3.64
34.
134
4.69
15.
324
6.04
26.
856
7.78
18.
830
10.0
2011
.372
12.9
0514
.645
16.6
2018
.861
21.4
0424
.290
27.5
6531
.282
35.5
0040
.287
45.7
1951
.884
58.8
8066
.819
3.76
94.
020
4.31
44.
658
5.05
85.
523
6.06
06.
678
7.38
78.
198
9.12
310
.176
11.3
7312
.732
14.2
7616
.026
18.0
1220
.265
22.8
2025
.718
29.0
0532
.734
36.9
6441
.763
47.2
0853
.385
60.3
9468
.346
1.93
52.
196
2.49
22.
828
3.21
03.
643
4.13
44.
691
5.32
46.
042
6.85
67.
781
8.83
010
.020
11.3
7212
.905
14.6
4516
.620
18.8
6121
.404
24.2
9027
.565
31.2
8235
.500
40.2
8745
.719
51.8
84
3.58
13.
792
4.04
04.
333
4.67
65.
076
5.54
16.
078
6.69
67.
406
8.21
79.
143
10.1
9611
.394
12.7
5514
.298
16.0
4918
.036
20.2
8822
.844
25.7
4229
.029
32.7
5836
.989
41.7
8847
.233
53.4
10
1.70
51.
935
2.19
62.
492
2.82
83.
210
3.64
34.
134
4.69
15.
324
6.04
26.
856
7.78
18.
830
10.0
2011
.372
12.9
0514
.645
16.6
2018
.861
21.4
0424
.290
27.5
6531
.282
35.5
0040
.287
3.43
03.
605
3.81
44.
061
4.35
24.
694
5.09
35.
558
6.09
56.
714
7.42
48.
237
9.16
310
.218
11.4
1612
.777
14.3
2116
.073
18.0
5920
.312
22.8
6825
.766
29.0
5432
.783
37.0
1441
.813
1.50
31.
705
1.93
52.
196
2.49
22.
828
3.21
03.
643
4.13
44.
691
5.32
46.
042
6.85
67.
781
8.83
010
.020
11.3
7212
.905
14.6
4516
.620
18.8
6121
.404
24.2
9027
.565
31.2
82
3.31
13.
456
3.62
93.
836
4.08
14.
371
4.71
25.
111
5.57
56.
113
6.73
27.
443
8.25
69.
184
10.2
3911
.439
12.8
0014
.345
16.0
9718
.084
20.3
3722
.892
25.7
9129
.079
32.8
08
1.32
41.
503
1.70
51.
935
2.19
62.
492
2.82
83.
210
3.64
34.
134
4.69
15.
324
6.04
26.
856
7.78
18.
830
10.0
2011
.372
12.9
0514
.645
16.6
2018
.861
21.4
0424
.290
3.22
13.
340
3.48
33.
654
3.85
84.
102
4.39
04.
730
5.12
85.
592
6.13
06.
750
7.46
28.
277
9.20
510
.262
11.4
6212
.824
14.3
6916
.121
18.1
0820
.362
22.9
1825
.816
1.16
71.
324
1.50
31.
705
1.93
52.
196
2.49
22.
828
3.21
03.
643
4.13
44.
691
5.32
46.
042
6.85
67.
781
8.83
010
.020
11.3
7212
.905
14.6
4516
.620
18.8
61
3.15
63.
253
3.36
93.
510
3.67
83.
881
4.12
24.
409
4.74
85.
145
5.60
96.
148
6.76
97.
482
8.29
79.
227
10.2
8411
.485
12.8
4814
.394
16.1
4618
.133
20.3
87
1.02
81.
167
1.32
41.
503
1.70
51.
935
2.19
62.
492
2.82
83.
210
3.64
34.
134
4.69
15.
324
6.04
26.
856
7.78
18.
830
10.0
2011
.372
12.9
0514
.645
3.11
13.
190
3.28
53.
399
3.53
73.
703
3.90
34.
142
4.42
74.
765
5.16
25.
626
6.16
56.
787
7.50
28.
318
9.24
910
.308
11.5
1012
.873
14.4
1916
.171
906
1.02
81.
167
1.32
41.
503
1.70
51.
935
2.19
62.
492
2.82
83.
210
3.64
34.
134
4.69
15.
324
6.04
26.
856
7.78
18.
830
10.0
2011
.372
3.08
43.
149
3.22
53.
318
3.42
93.
564
3.72
83.
925
4.16
24.
446
4.78
25.
179
5.64
36.
183
6.80
67.
522
8.34
09.
272
10.3
3211
.534
12.8
98
798
906
1.02
81.
167
1.32
41.
503
1.70
51.
935
2.19
62.
492
2.82
83.
210
3.64
34.
134
4.69
15.
324
6.04
26.
856
7.78
18.
830
3.07
23.
125
3.18
73.
261
3.35
13.
460
3.59
23.
753
3.94
74.
182
4.46
44.
799
5.19
55.
660
6.20
16.
825
7.54
38.
363
9.29
610
.357
703
798
906
1.02
81.
167
1.32
41.
503
1.70
51.
935
2.19
62.
492
2.82
83.
210
3.64
34.
134
4.69
15.
324
6.04
26.
856
3.07
03.
114
3.16
63.
226
3.29
83.
385
3.49
13.
620
3.77
73.
969
4.20
14.
481
4.81
55.
211
5.67
66.
218
6.84
57.
564
8.38
6
620
703
798
906
1.02
81.
167
1.32
41.
503
1.70
51.
935
2.19
62.
492
2.82
83.
210
3.64
34.
134
4.69
15.
324
3.07
83.
115
3.15
83.
208
3.26
63.
336
3.42
03.
522
3.64
83.
802
3.99
14.
220
4.49
84.
831
5.22
75.
693
6.23
66.
865
546
620
703
798
906
1.02
81.
167
1.32
41.
503
1.70
51.
935
2.19
62.
492
2.82
83.
210
3.64
34.
134
3.09
13.
125
3.16
23.
203
3.25
13.
307
3.37
43.
455
3.55
43.
676
3.82
74.
012
4.23
94.
514
4.84
65.
242
5.70
9
481
546
620
703
798
906
1.02
81.
167
1.32
41.
503
1.70
51.
935
2.19
62.
492
2.82
83.
210
3.11
03.
140
3.17
33.
209
3.24
93.
295
3.34
93.
413
3.49
13.
587
3.70
53.
852
4.03
34.
256
4.52
94.
860
424
481
546
620
703
798
906
1.02
81.
167
1.32
41.
503
1.70
51.
935
2.19
62.
492
3.13
13.
160
3.19
03.
223
3.25
83.
297
3.34
13.
392
3.45
43.
528
3.62
03.
734
3.87
64.
053
4.27
3
374
424
481
546
620
703
798
906
1.02
81.
167
1.32
41.
503
1.70
51.
935
3.15
53.
183
3.21
23.
241
3.27
33.
307
3.34
53.
388
3.43
73.
496
3.56
63.
654
3.76
33.
900
329
374
424
481
546
620
703
798
906
1.02
81.
167
1.32
41.
503
3.18
03.
207
3.23
53.
264
3.29
43.
325
3.35
93.
395
3.43
63.
483
3.53
83.
606
3.68
9
290
329
374
424
481
546
620
703
798
906
1.02
81.
167
3.20
63.
233
3.26
13.
289
3.31
83.
348
3.37
83.
411
3.44
73.
486
3.53
03.
583
256
290
329
374
424
481
546
620
703
798
906
3.23
33.
260
3.28
83.
315
3.34
43.
373
3.40
23.
433
3.46
53.
500
3.53
7
225
256
290
329
374
424
481
546
620
703
3.26
03.
287
3.31
53.
343
3.37
13.
400
3.42
93.
458
3.48
93.
521
199
225
256
290
329
374
424
481
546
3.28
73.
315
3.34
33.
371
3.39
93.
428
3.45
73.
486
3.51
6
175
199
225
256
290
329
374
424
3.31
53.
342
3.37
13.
399
3.42
73.
456
3.48
53.
515
154
175
199
225
256
290
329
3.34
23.
371
3.39
93.
427
3.45
63.
485
3.51
4
136
154
175
199
225
256
3.37
13.
399
3.42
73.
456
3.48
53.
514
120
136
154
175
199
3.39
93.
427
3.45
63.
485
3.51
4
105
120
136
154
3.42
73.
456
3.48
53.
514
9310
512
0
3.45
63.
485
3.51
4
8293
3.48
53.
514
72
3.51
4
Op
ção
de
Exp
. 20
16
Op
ção
de
Ab
and
on
o
121
APÊNDICE E – Resultados da simulação de Monte Carlo da Claro
Figura 8: Distribuição de probabilidade da variável Z para a empresa Claro Fonte: Tela com resultado da simulação pelo Crystal Ball ®
Figura 9: Distribuição de probabilidade do VPL para a empresa Claro Fonte: Tela com resultado da simulação pelo Crystal Ball ®
122
Figura 10: Distribuição de probabilidade da TIR para a empresa Claro Fonte: Tela com resultado da simulação pelo Crystal Ball ®
Figura 11: Distribuição de probabilidade do período de payback para a empresa Claro Fonte: Tela com resultado da simulação pelo Crystal Ball ®
Figura 12: Distribuição de probabilidade do eVPL para a empresa Claro Fonte: Tela com resultado da simulação pelo Crystal Ball ®
123
APÊNDICE F – Resultados da empresa Vivo
Tabela 25: Fluxo de caixa base e expandido - Vivo
Fonte: Resultados da pesquisa
4G -
Fai
xa 2
,5 G
Hz
sem
fle
xib
ilid
ade
s
Inve
stim
en
tos
(CA
PEX
)20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Lice
nça
s +
Gar
anti
as A
nat
el
112.
461.
703
999.
539.
401
5.81
4.20
44.
300.
322
2.55
9.07
624
.285
13.8
790
00
00
00
00
LTE
e-N
od
eB
(ER
B)
103.
793.
400
89.9
40.3
7525
8.25
7.36
334
5.52
0.30
328
2.97
3.16
715
5.19
4.53
017
.640
.057
95.7
20.8
5289
.171
.531
81.6
14.6
2173
.453
.159
66.1
07.8
4359
.497
.059
53.5
47.3
5348
.192
.618
LTE
Ne
two
rk17
2.98
9.00
014
9.90
0.62
543
0.42
8.93
857
5.86
7.17
147
1.62
1.94
525
8.65
7.54
929
.400
.094
159.
534.
754
148.
619.
218
136.
024.
369
122.
421.
932
110.
179.
739
99.1
61.7
6589
.245
.588
80.3
21.0
30
LTE
Ou
tro
s69
.195
.600
59.9
60.2
5017
2.17
1.57
523
0.34
6.86
918
8.64
8.77
810
3.46
3.02
011
.760
.038
63.8
13.9
0159
.447
.687
54.4
09.7
4848
.968
.773
44.0
71.8
9639
.664
.706
35.6
98.2
3532
.128
.412
Tota
l CA
PEX
112.
461.
703
1.34
5.51
7.40
130
5.61
5.45
486
5.15
8.19
71.
154.
293.
418
943.
268.
174
517.
328.
978
58.8
00.1
8931
9.06
9.50
729
7.23
8.43
627
2.04
8.73
824
4.84
3.86
422
0.35
9.47
819
8.32
3.53
017
8.49
1.17
716
0.64
2.05
9
OP
EX20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Man
ute
nçã
o e
Su
po
rte
17.2
98.9
0032
.288
.963
75.3
31.8
5613
2.91
8.57
318
0.08
0.76
820
5.94
6.52
320
8.88
6.53
222
4.84
0.00
823
9.70
1.92
925
3.30
4.36
626
5.54
6.55
927
6.56
4.53
328
6.48
0.71
029
5.40
5.26
9
Alu
gue
l de
to
rre
e s
ite
560.
807
1.18
8.42
67.
158.
338
31.4
86.6
8245
.041
.115
61.8
47.7
9966
.031
.772
69.0
03.2
0272
.108
.346
75.3
53.2
2278
.261
.493
81.3
62.1
0984
.387
.699
88.0
09.1
3291
.785
.608
Ene
rgia
elé
tric
a4.
060.
324
12.5
27.2
9929
.986
.435
63.4
59.5
9010
3.29
7.39
313
6.54
3.74
815
5.07
9.11
916
3.46
2.55
017
0.81
8.36
517
8.50
5.19
218
6.53
7.92
519
4.93
2.13
220
3.70
4.07
821
2.87
0.76
122
2.44
9.94
5
Tota
l OP
EX0
4.62
1.13
031
.014
.625
69.4
33.7
3617
0.27
8.12
928
1.25
7.08
137
8.47
2.31
442
7.05
7.41
444
1.35
2.28
546
7.76
6.71
949
3.56
0.34
351
8.10
3.78
554
1.84
0.80
056
4.65
6.31
058
7.36
0.60
360
9.64
0.82
2
Flu
xo d
e C
aixa
Liv
re20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Re
ceit
a B
ruta
Se
rviç
os
4G57
.999
.161
218.
369.
050
395.
580.
402
943.
139.
090
3.01
4.55
9.16
55.
279.
762.
077
6.44
6.85
1.40
87.
495.
678.
096
8.93
4.93
4.49
010
.466
.594
.863
11.7
26.6
78.3
3912
.576
.047
.784
13.3
27.0
13.7
2814
.115
.064
.135
15.1
10.5
54.0
79
Re
ceit
a d
up
lica
da
-18.
073.
223
-48.
101.
499
-74.
257.
356
-182
.446
.212
-613
.242
.260
-1.1
34.3
06.3
93-1
.394
.511
.877
-1.6
40.9
85.3
97-1
.972
.908
.841
-2.2
91.3
26.4
05-2
.527
.383
.885
-2.6
51.5
58.6
93-2
.742
.602
.322
-2.8
35.2
01.6
68-2
.962
.455
.013
Re
ceit
a Lí
qu
ida
28.0
59.8
4911
9.66
3.60
922
5.82
5.03
353
4.61
3.05
31.
687.
639.
518
2.91
3.41
5.89
13.
550.
771.
591
4.11
4.66
3.39
24.
892.
894.
221
5.74
5.55
8.23
46.
465.
241.
144
6.97
4.90
6.12
27.
438.
697.
875
7.92
7.45
9.14
28.
537.
653.
654
EBIT
DA
Incr
em
en
tal
10.0
65.3
3342
.924
.467
81.0
05.5
7219
1.77
0.75
160
5.37
2.23
21.
045.
069.
793
1.27
3.69
5.30
21.
475.
968.
616
1.75
5.12
7.36
32.
060.
985.
997
2.31
9.14
3.05
32.
501.
964.
694
2.66
8.33
1.17
52.
843.
654.
458
3.06
2.53
6.99
1
De
pre
ciaç
ão0
-34.
597.
800
-64.
577.
925
-150
.663
.713
-265
.837
.147
-360
.161
.536
-411
.893
.046
-417
.773
.064
-449
.680
.015
-479
.403
.859
-506
.608
.733
-496
.495
.319
-488
.551
.142
-422
.297
.707
-324
.973
.391
Am
ort
izaç
ão L
ice
nça
s-7
.497
.447
-74.
133.
407
-74.
521.
021
-74.
807.
709
-74.
978.
314
-74.
979.
933
-74.
980.
858
-74.
980.
858
-74.
980.
858
-74.
980.
858
-74.
980.
858
-74.
980.
858
-74.
980.
858
-74.
980.
858
-74.
980.
858
Lucr
o B
ruto
2.56
7.88
6-6
5.80
6.74
0-5
8.09
3.37
4-3
3.70
0.67
026
4.55
6.77
260
9.92
8.32
578
6.82
1.39
898
3.21
4.69
31.
230.
466.
490
1.50
6.60
1.28
01.
737.
553.
463
1.93
0.48
8.51
72.
104.
799.
176
2.34
6.37
5.89
22.
662.
582.
743
Pro
jeçã
o d
e IR
PJ+
CSL
L-8
73.0
8122
.374
.292
19.7
51.7
4711
.458
.228
-89.
949.
302
-207
.375
.630
-267
.519
.275
-334
.292
.996
-418
.358
.607
-512
.244
.435
-590
.768
.177
-656
.366
.096
-715
.631
.720
-797
.767
.803
-905
.278
.132
Re
sult
ado
Op
era
cio
nal
9.19
2.25
265
.298
.758
100.
757.
319
203.
228.
979
515.
422.
930
837.
694.
163
1.00
6.17
6.02
61.
141.
675.
620
1.33
6.76
8.75
71.
548.
741.
562
1.72
8.37
4.87
61.
845.
598.
598
1.95
2.69
9.45
62.
045.
886.
654
2.15
7.25
8.85
9
Inve
stim
en
tos
(CA
PEX
)-3
.914
.295
.609
Var
iaçã
o C
CL
-2.6
65.6
86-8
.702
.357
-10.
085.
335
-29.
334.
862
-109
.537
.514
-116
.448
.755
-60.
548.
792
-53.
569.
721
-73.
931.
929
-81.
003.
081
-68.
369.
876
-48.
418.
173
-44.
060.
217
-46.
432.
320
-57.
968.
479
Flu
xo d
e C
aixa
Liv
re-3
.914
.295
.609
6.52
6.56
656
.596
.401
90.6
71.9
8417
3.89
4.11
740
5.88
5.41
672
1.24
5.40
794
5.62
7.23
51.
088.
105.
899
1.26
2.83
6.82
81.
467.
738.
480
1.66
0.00
4.99
91.
797.
180.
425
1.90
8.63
9.23
91.
999.
454.
334
2.09
9.29
0.38
0
4G -
Fai
xa 2
,5 G
Hz
com
aq
uis
ição
da
faix
a d
e 7
00 M
hz
Inve
stim
en
tos
(CA
PEX
)20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Lice
nça
s +
Gar
anti
as A
nat
el
112.
461.
703
999.
539.
401
5.81
4.20
44.
300.
322
71.9
37.5
5460
7.36
6.79
23.
162.
824
1.40
7.69
910
4.07
50
00
00
00
LTE
e-N
od
eB
(ER
B)
103.
793.
400
89.9
40.3
7525
8.25
7.36
310
4.78
9.34
013
0.30
4.68
458
.118
.620
11.8
71.6
4555
.914
.304
52.0
88.5
8947
.674
.302
42.9
06.8
7138
.616
.184
34.7
54.5
6631
.279
.109
28.1
51.1
98
LTE
Ne
two
rk17
2.98
9.00
014
9.90
0.62
543
0.42
8.93
817
4.64
8.89
921
7.17
4.47
496
.864
.366
19.7
86.0
7493
.190
.507
86.8
14.3
1579
.457
.169
71.5
11.4
5264
.360
.307
57.9
24.2
7752
.131
.849
46.9
18.6
64
LTE
Ou
tro
s69
.195
.600
59.9
60.2
5017
2.17
1.57
569
.859
.560
86.8
69.7
9038
.745
.746
7.91
4.43
037
.276
.203
34.7
25.7
2631
.782
.868
28.6
04.5
8125
.744
.123
23.1
69.7
1120
.852
.740
18.7
67.4
66
Tota
l CA
PEX
112.
461.
703
1.34
5.51
7.40
130
5.61
5.45
486
5.15
8.19
742
1.23
5.35
21.
041.
715.
740
196.
891.
556
40.9
79.8
4818
6.48
5.09
017
3.62
8.62
915
8.91
4.33
914
3.02
2.90
512
8.72
0.61
411
5.84
8.55
310
4.26
3.69
893
.837
.328
OP
EX20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Man
ute
nçã
o e
Su
po
rte
17.2
98.9
0032
.288
.963
75.3
31.8
5692
.796
.746
114.
514.
194
124.
200.
630
126.
179.
238
135.
498.
288
144.
179.
720
152.
125.
437
159.
276.
582
165.
712.
613
171.
505.
040
176.
718.
225
Alu
gue
l de
to
rre
e s
ite
560.
807
1.18
8.42
67.
158.
338
13.2
71.7
9015
.926
.203
19.1
24.0
2320
.177
.304
21.0
85.2
8222
.034
.120
23.0
25.6
5524
.061
.810
25.1
44.5
9126
.276
.098
27.4
58.5
2228
.694
.156
Ene
rgia
elé
tric
a4.
060.
324
12.5
27.2
9929
.986
.435
50.3
04.3
9466
.495
.932
81.7
48.1
2181
.289
.984
95.4
84.8
8799
.781
.707
104.
271.
884
108.
964.
119
113.
867.
504
118.
991.
542
124.
346.
161
129.
941.
739
Tota
l OP
EX0
4.62
1.13
031
.014
.625
69.4
33.7
3613
8.90
8.04
117
5.21
8.88
121
5.38
6.33
822
5.66
7.91
824
2.74
9.40
725
7.31
4.11
627
1.47
7.25
928
5.15
1.36
629
8.28
8.67
831
0.98
0.25
332
3.30
9.72
433
5.35
4.12
0
Flu
xo d
e C
aixa
Liv
re20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Re
ceit
a B
ruta
Se
rviç
os
4G57
.999
.161
218.
369.
050
395.
580.
402
943.
139.
090
3.01
4.55
9.16
55.
279.
762.
077
6.44
6.85
1.40
87.
495.
678.
096
8.93
4.93
4.49
010
.466
.594
.863
11.7
26.6
78.3
3912
.576
.047
.784
13.3
27.0
13.7
2814
.115
.064
.135
15.1
10.5
54.0
79
Re
ceit
a d
up
lica
da
-18.
073.
223
-48.
101.
499
-74.
257.
356
-182
.446
.212
-613
.242
.260
-1.1
34.3
06.3
93-1
.394
.511
.877
-1.6
40.9
85.3
97-1
.972
.908
.841
-2.2
91.3
26.4
05-2
.527
.383
.885
-2.6
51.5
58.6
93-2
.742
.602
.322
-2.8
35.2
01.6
68-2
.962
.455
.013
Re
ceit
a Lí
qu
ida
28.0
59.8
4911
9.66
3.60
922
5.82
5.03
353
4.61
3.05
31.
687.
639.
518
2.91
3.41
5.89
13.
550.
771.
591
4.11
4.66
3.39
24.
892.
894.
221
5.74
5.55
8.23
46.
465.
241.
144
6.97
4.90
6.12
27.
438.
697.
875
7.92
7.45
9.14
28.
537.
653.
654
EBIT
DA
Incr
em
en
tal
10.0
65.3
3342
.924
.467
81.0
05.5
7219
1.77
0.75
160
5.37
2.23
21.
045.
069.
793
1.27
3.69
5.30
21.
475.
968.
616
1.75
5.12
7.36
32.
060.
985.
997
2.31
9.14
3.05
32.
501.
964.
694
2.66
8.33
1.17
52.
843.
654.
458
3.06
2.53
6.99
1
Re
du
ção
de
Cu
sto
s0
00
31.3
70.0
8810
6.03
8.20
016
3.08
5.97
720
1.38
9.49
619
8.60
2.87
721
0.45
2.60
322
2.08
3.08
323
2.95
2.41
924
3.55
2.12
325
3.67
6.05
826
4.05
0.87
927
4.28
6.70
2
De
pre
ciaç
ão0
-34.
597.
800
-64.
577.
925
-150
.663
.713
-185
.593
.492
-229
.028
.387
-248
.401
.260
-252
.358
.475
-270
.996
.577
-288
.359
.440
-304
.250
.874
-283
.955
.364
-266
.847
.300
-192
.346
.368
-229
.047
.097
Am
ort
izaç
ão L
ice
nça
s-7
.497
.447
-74.
133.
407
-74.
521.
021
-74.
807.
709
-79.
603.
546
-120
.094
.665
-120
.305
.520
-120
.399
.367
-120
.406
.305
-120
.406
.305
-120
.406
.305
-120
.406
.305
-120
.406
.305
-120
.406
.305
Lucr
o B
ruto
2.56
7.88
6-6
5.80
6.74
0-5
8.09
3.37
4-2
.330
.582
446.
213.
395
859.
032.
718
1.10
6.37
8.01
81.
301.
813.
651
1.57
4.17
7.08
51.
874.
303.
336
2.12
7.43
8.29
42.
341.
155.
147
2.53
4.75
3.62
82.
794.
952.
663
3.10
7.77
6.59
6
Pro
jeçã
o d
e IR
PJ+
CSL
L-8
73.0
8122
.374
.292
19.7
51.7
4779
2.39
8-1
51.7
12.5
54-2
92.0
71.1
24-3
76.1
68.5
26-4
42.6
16.6
42-5
35.2
20.2
09-6
37.2
63.1
34-7
23.3
29.0
20-7
95.9
92.7
50-8
61.8
16.2
33-9
50.2
83.9
05-1
.056
.644
.043
Re
sult
ado
Op
era
cio
nal
9.19
2.25
265
.298
.758
100.
757.
319
223.
933.
237
559.
697.
878
916.
084.
646
1.09
8.91
6.27
21.
231.
954.
852
1.43
0.35
9.75
81.
645.
805.
946
1.82
8.76
6.45
21.
949.
524.
066
2.06
0.19
1.00
02.
157.
421.
431
2.28
0.17
9.65
1
124
APÊNDICE G – Árvore binomial da Vivo
Figura 13: Amostra da árvore binomial do projeto da Vivo (em R$ milhões) Fonte: Resultados da pesquisa
Mo
de
lo B
ino
mia
l
Val
or
do
Ati
voV
Po
4.4
76
,80
Taxa
de
sub
ida
u1
,13
48
Pas
sos
po
r an
ot
0,1
0Ta
xa d
e q
ued
ad
0,8
81
2B
enef
ício
2.2
14
,04
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Vo
lati
tilid
ade
anu
als
40
,0%
Pro
b. d
e su
bid
ap
0,5
01
5Ex
ercí
cio
55
3,7
20,
001.
450,
481.
729,
462.
543,
733.
587,
014.
350,
884.
628,
864.
409,
094.
433,
814.
405,
914.
321,
844.
179,
584.
016,
543.
832,
083.
685,
733.
612,
28
Taxa
de
juro
s an
ual
rf8
,39
%P
rob
. de
des
cid
a1
- p
0,4
98
5
2012
2013
2014
2015
01
23
45
67
89
1011
1213
1415
1617
1819
2021
2223
2425
2627
2829
30
4.47
75.
080
5.76
56.
543
7.42
58.
426
9.56
310
.852
12.3
1513
.976
15.8
6017
.999
20.4
2623
.180
26.3
0629
.853
33.8
7838
.446
43.6
3049
.513
56.1
9063
.766
72.3
6482
.122
93.1
9510
5.76
112
0.02
213
6.20
615
4.57
217
5.41
419
9.06
7
5.81
06.
391
7.05
97.
824
8.69
89.
696
10.8
3212
.125
13.5
9415
.262
17.1
5519
.303
21.7
4024
.505
27.6
4231
.200
35.2
3739
.816
45.0
1250
.906
57.5
9465
.183
73.7
9383
.562
94.6
4810
7.22
612
1.49
913
7.69
515
6.07
417
6.92
920
0.59
4
3.94
54.
477
5.08
05.
765
6.54
37.
425
8.42
69.
563
10.8
5212
.315
13.9
7615
.860
17.9
9920
.426
23.1
8026
.306
29.8
5333
.878
38.4
4643
.630
49.5
1356
.190
63.7
6672
.364
82.1
2293
.195
105.
761
120.
022
136.
206
154.
572
5.32
45.
827
6.40
87.
076
7.84
18.
716
9.71
410
.851
12.1
4413
.614
15.2
8217
.176
19.3
2521
.762
24.5
2827
.664
31.2
2335
.260
39.8
3945
.035
50.9
3057
.618
65.2
0773
.817
83.5
8794
.672
107.
251
121.
524
137.
720
156.
099
3.47
63.
945
4.47
75.
080
5.76
56.
543
7.42
58.
426
9.56
310
.852
12.3
1513
.976
15.8
6017
.999
20.4
2623
.180
26.3
0629
.853
33.8
7838
.446
43.6
3049
.513
56.1
9063
.766
72.3
6482
.122
93.1
9510
5.76
112
0.02
2
1.33
3,49
4.90
75.
341
5.84
46.
425
7.09
37.
858
8.73
49.
733
10.8
7112
.164
13.6
3515
.304
17.1
9819
.347
21.7
8524
.550
27.6
8731
.246
35.2
8339
.863
45.0
5950
.954
57.6
4265
.231
73.8
4183
.611
94.6
9710
7.27
612
1.54
9
3.06
33.
476
3.94
54.
477
5.08
05.
765
6.54
37.
425
8.42
69.
563
10.8
5212
.315
13.9
7615
.860
17.9
9920
.426
23.1
8026
.306
29.8
5333
.878
38.4
4643
.630
49.5
1356
.190
63.7
6672
.364
82.1
2293
.195
4.55
24.
925
5.35
85.
861
6.44
27.
110
7.87
68.
752
9.75
210
.890
12.1
8513
.656
15.3
2517
.220
19.3
6921
.808
24.5
7327
.710
31.2
6935
.306
39.8
8745
.083
50.9
7857
.667
65.2
5573
.866
83.6
3694
.722
2.69
93.
063
3.47
63.
945
4.47
75.
080
5.76
56.
543
7.42
58.
426
9.56
310
.852
12.3
1513
.976
15.8
6017
.999
20.4
2623
.180
26.3
0629
.853
33.8
7838
.446
43.6
3049
.513
56.1
9063
.766
72.3
64
4.25
44.
571
4.94
35.
376
5.87
86.
459
7.12
77.
894
8.77
19.
771
10.9
1012
.206
13.6
7715
.347
17.2
4219
.392
21.8
3124
.597
27.7
3431
.293
35.3
3139
.911
45.1
0751
.003
57.6
9165
.281
73.8
91
2.37
82.
699
3.06
33.
476
3.94
54.
477
5.08
05.
765
6.54
37.
425
8.42
69.
563
10.8
5212
.315
13.9
7615
.860
17.9
9920
.426
23.1
8026
.306
29.8
5333
.878
38.4
4643
.630
49.5
1356
.190
4.00
64.
274
4.59
04.
961
5.39
35.
895
6.47
67.
145
7.91
28.
790
9.79
110
.931
12.2
2713
.699
15.3
7017
.266
19.4
1621
.854
24.6
2127
.758
31.3
1735
.355
39.9
3645
.132
51.0
2857
.717
2.09
62.
378
2.69
93.
063
3.47
63.
945
4.47
75.
080
5.76
56.
543
7.42
58.
426
9.56
310
.852
12.3
1513
.976
15.8
6017
.999
20.4
2623
.180
26.3
0629
.853
33.8
7838
.446
43.6
30
3.80
34.
028
4.29
54.
609
4.97
95.
410
5.91
26.
493
7.16
27.
930
8.80
99.
811
10.9
5212
.249
13.7
2215
.393
17.2
8919
.439
21.8
7824
.645
27.7
8331
.342
35.3
8039
.961
45.1
57
1.84
72.
096
2.37
82.
699
3.06
33.
476
3.94
54.
477
5.08
05.
765
6.54
37.
425
8.42
69.
563
10.8
5212
.315
13.9
7615
.860
17.9
9920
.426
23.1
8026
.306
29.8
5333
.878
3.64
13.
828
4.05
14.
315
4.62
84.
997
5.42
75.
929
6.51
07.
180
7.94
98.
828
9.83
210
.974
12.2
7113
.745
15.4
1717
.313
19.4
6421
.903
24.6
6927
.808
31.3
6735
.405
1.62
71.
847
2.09
62.
378
2.69
93.
063
3.47
63.
945
4.47
75.
080
5.76
56.
543
7.42
58.
426
9.56
310
.852
12.3
1513
.976
15.8
6017
.999
20.4
2623
.180
26.3
06
3.51
53.
668
3.85
34.
073
4.33
64.
647
5.01
45.
444
5.94
66.
527
7.19
87.
967
8.84
89.
853
10.9
9612
.294
13.7
6815
.441
17.3
3719
.488
21.9
2824
.695
27.8
33
1.43
41.
627
1.84
72.
096
2.37
82.
699
3.06
33.
476
3.94
54.
477
5.08
05.
765
6.54
37.
425
8.42
69.
563
10.8
5212
.315
13.9
7615
.860
17.9
9920
.426
3.41
93.
544
3.69
63.
877
4.09
64.
356
4.66
65.
032
5.46
15.
963
6.54
47.
216
7.98
78.
869
9.87
411
.018
12.3
1813
.793
15.4
6517
.362
19.5
1321
.953
1.26
41.
434
1.62
71.
847
2.09
62.
378
2.69
93.
063
3.47
63.
945
4.47
75.
080
5.76
56.
543
7.42
58.
426
9.56
310
.852
12.3
1513
.976
15.8
60
3.35
03.
452
3.57
53.
723
3.90
24.
118
4.37
64.
684
5.04
95.
478
5.97
96.
561
7.23
48.
006
8.88
99.
896
11.0
4212
.342
13.8
1715
.490
17.3
88
1.11
31.
264
1.43
41.
627
1.84
72.
096
2.37
82.
699
3.06
33.
476
3.94
54.
477
5.08
05.
765
6.54
37.
425
8.42
69.
563
10.8
5212
.315
3.30
43.
387
3.48
63.
606
3.75
13.
927
4.14
04.
396
4.70
25.
065
5.49
45.
995
6.57
87.
252
8.02
68.
911
9.91
911
.066
12.3
6713
.843
981
1.11
31.
264
1.43
41.
627
1.84
72.
096
2.37
82.
699
3.06
33.
476
3.94
54.
477
5.08
05.
765
6.54
37.
425
8.42
69.
563
3.27
73.
344
3.42
43.
520
3.63
73.
779
3.95
34.
162
4.41
64.
720
5.08
25.
510
6.01
26.
596
7.27
18.
046
8.93
39.
943
11.0
90
865
981
1.11
31.
264
1.43
41.
627
1.84
72.
096
2.37
82.
699
3.06
33.
476
3.94
54.
477
5.08
05.
765
6.54
37.
425
3.26
53.
320
3.38
43.
462
3.55
53.
669
3.80
83.
978
4.18
44.
435
4.73
75.
098
5.52
56.
027
6.61
37.
290
8.06
88.
956
762
865
981
1.11
31.
264
1.43
41.
627
1.84
72.
096
2.37
82.
699
3.06
33.
476
3.94
54.
477
5.08
05.
765
3.26
53.
311
3.36
43.
426
3.50
03.
591
3.70
13.
837
4.00
34.
206
4.45
44.
753
5.11
35.
540
6.04
36.
630
7.30
9
671
762
865
981
1.11
31.
264
1.43
41.
627
1.84
72.
096
2.37
82.
699
3.06
33.
476
3.94
54.
477
3.27
43.
313
3.35
83.
409
3.46
93.
540
3.62
73.
734
3.86
54.
028
4.22
74.
472
4.76
95.
127
5.55
46.
059
592
671
762
865
981
1.11
31.
264
1.43
41.
627
1.84
72.
096
2.37
82.
699
3.06
33.
476
3.29
03.
325
3.36
33.
406
3.45
53.
512
3.58
13.
665
3.76
73.
895
4.05
24.
248
4.48
94.
783
5.14
0
521
592
671
762
865
981
1.11
31.
264
1.43
41.
627
1.84
72.
096
2.37
82.
699
3.31
13.
342
3.37
73.
414
3.45
53.
502
3.55
73.
623
3.70
33.
801
3.92
44.
077
4.26
84.
505
459
521
592
671
762
865
981
1.11
31.
264
1.43
41.
627
1.84
72.
096
3.33
43.
364
3.39
63.
430
3.46
63.
506
3.55
13.
603
3.66
63.
742
3.83
63.
954
4.10
1
405
459
521
592
671
762
865
981
1.11
31.
264
1.43
41.
627
3.36
03.
389
3.41
93.
451
3.48
43.
519
3.55
83.
601
3.65
13.
710
3.78
23.
872
357
405
459
521
592
671
762
865
981
1.11
31.
264
3.38
73.
416
3.44
63.
476
3.50
73.
539
3.57
43.
612
3.65
33.
701
3.75
6
314
357
405
459
521
592
671
762
865
981
3.41
53.
444
3.47
33.
503
3.53
33.
564
3.59
73.
630
3.66
73.
707
277
314
357
405
459
521
592
671
762
3.44
33.
472
3.50
23.
531
3.56
13.
592
3.62
33.
655
3.68
8
244
277
314
357
405
459
521
592
3.47
23.
501
3.53
13.
561
3.59
13.
621
3.65
23.
683
215
244
277
314
357
405
459
3.50
13.
531
3.56
03.
590
3.62
03.
651
3.68
2
189
215
244
277
314
357
3.53
13.
560
3.59
03.
620
3.65
13.
681
167
189
215
244
277
3.56
03.
590
3.62
03.
651
3.68
1
147
167
189
215
3.59
03.
620
3.65
13.
681
130
147
167
3.62
03.
651
3.68
1
114
130
3.65
13.
681
101
3.68
1
Op
ção
de
Exp
. 20
15
Op
ção
de
Ab
and
on
o
125
APÊNDICE H – Resultados da simulação de Monte Carlo da Vivo
Figura 14: Distribuição de probabilidade da variável Z para a empresa Vivo Fonte: Tela com resultado da simulação pelo Crystal Ball ®
Figura 15: Distribuição de probabilidade do VPL para a empresa Vivo Fonte: Tela com resultado da simulação pelo Crystal Ball ®
126
Figura 16: Distribuição de probabilidade da TIR para a empresa Vivo Fonte: Tela com resultado da simulação pelo Crystal Ball ®
Figura 17: Distribuição de probabilidade do período de payback para a empresa Vivo Fonte: Tela com resultado da simulação pelo Crystal Ball ®
Figura 18: Distribuição de probabilidade do eVPL para a empresa Vivo Fonte: Tela com resultado da simulação pelo Crystal Ball ®
127
APÊNDICE I – Resultados da empresa TIM
Tabela 26: Fluxo de caixa base e expandido - TIM
Fonte: Resultados da pesquisa
4G -
Fai
xa 2
,5 G
Hz
sem
fle
xib
ilid
ade
s
Inve
stim
en
tos
(CA
PEX
)20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Lice
nça
s +
Gar
anti
as A
nat
el
40.7
87.4
1432
7.83
3.87
55.
565.
547
4.28
2.97
62.
541.
730
12.0
986.
850
00
00
00
00
0
LTE
e-N
od
eB
(ER
B)
103.
793.
400
72.7
72.4
2524
7.51
5.91
234
5.52
0.30
325
3.60
1.65
714
8.17
2.31
68.
706.
951
95.7
20.8
5289
.171
.531
81.6
14.6
2173
.453
.159
66.1
07.8
4359
.497
.059
53.5
47.3
5348
.192
.618
LTE
Ne
two
rk17
2.98
9.00
012
1.28
7.37
541
2.52
6.52
057
5.86
7.17
142
2.66
9.42
824
6.95
3.86
014
.511
.585
159.
534.
754
148.
619.
218
136.
024.
369
122.
421.
932
110.
179.
739
99.1
61.7
6589
.245
.588
80.3
21.0
30
LTE
Ou
tro
s69
.195
.600
48.5
14.9
5016
5.01
0.60
823
0.34
6.86
916
9.06
7.77
198
.781
.544
5.80
4.63
463
.813
.901
59.4
47.6
8754
.409
.748
48.9
68.7
7344
.071
.896
39.6
64.7
0635
.698
.235
32.1
28.4
12
Tota
l CA
PEX
40.7
87.4
1467
3.81
1.87
524
8.14
0.29
782
9.33
6.01
61.
154.
276.
072
845.
350.
954
493.
914.
570
29.0
23.1
7031
9.06
9.50
729
7.23
8.43
627
2.04
8.73
824
4.84
3.86
422
0.35
9.47
819
8.32
3.53
017
8.49
1.17
716
0.64
2.05
9
OP
EX20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Man
ute
nçã
o e
Su
po
rte
17.2
98.9
0029
.427
.638
70.6
80.2
9012
8.26
7.00
717
0.53
3.94
919
5.22
9.33
519
6.68
0.49
421
2.63
3.96
922
7.49
5.89
124
1.09
8.32
825
3.34
0.52
126
4.35
8.49
527
4.27
4.67
228
3.19
9.23
0
Alu
gue
l de
to
rre
e s
ite
560.
807
1.04
5.28
25.
849.
825
30.6
78.6
7544
.866
.018
61.6
69.5
0065
.136
.059
68.0
67.1
8171
.130
.204
74.3
31.0
6477
.193
.338
80.2
45.8
8683
.281
.014
86.9
43.4
9190
.766
.948
Ene
rgia
elé
tric
a4.
060.
324
11.7
73.8
8527
.875
.709
60.7
03.1
1398
.626
.304
129.
313.
006
146.
342.
359
153.
621.
195
160.
534.
148
167.
758.
185
175.
307.
303
183.
196.
132
191.
439.
958
200.
054.
756
209.
057.
220
Tota
l OP
EX0
4.62
1.13
030
.118
.067
63.1
53.1
7116
2.06
2.07
827
1.75
9.32
936
1.51
6.45
540
6.70
7.75
341
8.36
8.87
044
4.29
8.32
246
9.58
5.14
049
3.59
8.96
951
6.78
2.54
053
9.07
9.46
756
1.27
2.91
958
3.02
3.39
8
Flu
xo d
e C
aixa
Liv
re20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Re
ceit
a B
ruta
Se
rviç
os
4G53
.611
.329
199.
729.
121
359.
715.
941
858.
218.
851
2.70
9.57
7.86
24.
682.
332.
065
5.62
7.95
7.11
26.
511.
224.
936
7.80
3.75
9.97
29.
176.
529.
891
10.2
38.2
20.4
5610
.919
.500
.001
11.5
69.4
59.9
2812
.251
.351
.793
13.1
13.0
01.9
38
Re
ceit
a d
up
lica
da
-13.
959.
744
-37.
153.
561
-57.
356.
326
-140
.921
.315
-4
68.0
44.7
69
-855
.444
.438
-1
.035
.027
.894
-1
.211
.575
.919
-1
.464
.167
.214
-1
.706
.256
.447
-1
.871
.627
.109
-1
.950
.871
.054
-2
.017
.855
.949
-2
.085
.985
.455
-2
.179
.611
.468
Re
ceit
a Lí
qu
ida
27.8
67.0
3511
4.25
7.69
721
2.49
7.58
250
4.11
4.91
51.
575.
343.
854
2.68
9.52
7.05
73.
227.
899.
172
3.72
4.58
0.08
04.
455.
449.
941
5.25
0.08
9.50
15.
880.
020.
888
6.30
3.13
0.00
26.
712.
843.
397
7.14
4.19
4.04
97.
683.
959.
489
EBIT
DA
Incr
em
en
tal
7.36
9.38
630
.215
.236
56.1
94.5
9113
3.31
2.25
341
6.59
6.75
571
1.24
0.43
385
3.61
1.93
998
4.95
8.28
21.
178.
235.
459
1.38
8.37
6.41
41.
554.
960.
599
1.66
6.85
1.01
81.
775.
198.
964
1.88
9.26
8.84
22.
032.
008.
810
De
pre
ciaç
ão0
-34.
597.
800
-58.
855.
275
-141
.360
.579
-2
56.5
34.0
13
-341
.067
.899
-3
90.4
58.6
71
-393
.360
.988
-4
25.2
67.9
39
-454
.991
.782
-4
82.1
96.6
56
-506
.681
.042
-5
28.7
16.9
90
-548
.549
.343
-5
66.3
98.4
61
Am
ort
izaç
ão L
ice
nça
s-2
.719
.161
-2
4.57
4.75
3 -2
4.94
5.78
9 -2
5.23
1.32
1 -2
5.40
0.76
9 -2
5.40
1.57
6 -2
5.40
2.03
3 -2
5.40
2.03
3 -2
5.40
2.03
3 -2
5.40
2.03
3 -2
5.40
2.03
3 -2
5.40
2.03
3 -2
5.40
2.03
3 -2
5.40
2.03
3 -2
5.40
2.03
3
Lucr
o B
ruto
4.65
0.22
5-2
8.95
7.31
7 -2
7.60
6.47
3 -3
3.27
9.64
7 13
4.66
1.97
334
4.77
0.95
843
7.75
1.23
556
6.19
5.26
172
7.56
5.48
790
7.98
2.59
91.
047.
361.
910
1.13
4.76
7.94
31.
221.
079.
941
1.31
5.31
7.46
61.
440.
208.
316
Pro
jeçã
o d
e IR
PJ+
CSL
L-1
.581
.076
9.
845.
488
9.38
6.20
111
.315
.080
-45.
785.
071
-117
.222
.126
-1
48.8
35.4
20
-192
.506
.389
-2
47.3
72.2
66
-308
.714
.084
-3
56.1
03.0
49
-385
.821
.101
-4
15.1
67.1
80
-447
.207
.939
-4
89.6
70.8
28
Re
sult
ado
Op
era
cio
nal
5.78
8.30
940
.060
.723
65.5
80.7
9214
4.62
7.33
337
0.81
1.68
559
4.01
8.30
770
4.77
6.51
979
2.45
1.89
393
0.86
3.19
31.
079.
662.
330
1.19
8.85
7.54
91.
281.
029.
917
1.36
0.03
1.78
41.
442.
060.
904
1.54
2.33
7.98
2
Inve
stim
en
tos
(CA
PEX
)-3
.188
.629
.109
Var
iaçã
o C
CL
-2.3
49.1
91
-7.2
82.7
33
-8.2
81.6
22
-24.
583.
341
-90.
304.
600
-93.
925.
644
-45.
384.
769
-41.
870.
201
-61.
612.
329
-66.
988.
115
-53.
103.
216
-35.
668.
098
-34.
538.
839
-36.
362.
860
-45.
502.
227
Flu
xo d
e C
aixa
Liv
re-3
.188
.629
.109
3.
439.
118
32.7
77.9
9157
.299
.169
120.
043.
991
280.
507.
085
500.
092.
663
659.
391.
749
750.
581.
692
869.
250.
864
1.01
2.67
4.21
51.
145.
754.
333
1.24
5.36
1.81
91.
325.
492.
945
1.40
5.69
8.04
41.
496.
835.
756
4G -
Fai
xa 2
,5 G
Hz
com
aq
uis
ição
da
faix
a d
e 7
00 M
hz
Inve
stim
en
tos
(CA
PEX
)20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Lice
nça
s +
Gar
anti
as A
nat
el
40.7
87.4
1432
7.83
3.87
55.
565.
547
4.28
2.97
671
.920
.208
607.
354.
604
3.15
5.79
61.
407.
699
104.
075
00
00
00
0
LTE
e-N
od
eB
(ER
B)
103.
793.
400
72.7
72.4
2524
7.51
5.91
210
4.78
9.34
013
0.30
4.68
458
.118
.620
11.8
71.6
4555
.914
.304
52.0
88.5
8947
.674
.302
42.9
06.8
7138
.616
.184
34.7
54.5
6631
.279
.109
28.1
51.1
98
LTE
Ne
two
rk17
2.98
9.00
012
1.28
7.37
541
2.52
6.52
017
4.64
8.89
921
7.17
4.47
496
.864
.366
19.7
86.0
7493
.190
.507
86.8
14.3
1579
.457
.169
71.5
11.4
5264
.360
.307
57.9
24.2
7752
.131
.849
46.9
18.6
64
LTE
Ou
tro
s69
.195
.600
48.5
14.9
5016
5.01
0.60
869
.859
.560
86.8
69.7
9038
.745
.746
7.91
4.43
037
.276
.203
34.7
25.7
2631
.782
.868
28.6
04.5
8125
.744
.123
23.1
69.7
1120
.852
.740
18.7
67.4
66
Tota
l CA
PEX
40.7
87.4
1467
3.81
1.87
524
8.14
0.29
782
9.33
6.01
642
1.21
8.00
61.
041.
703.
552
196.
884.
527
40.9
79.8
4818
6.48
5.09
017
3.62
8.62
915
8.91
4.33
914
3.02
2.90
512
8.72
0.61
411
5.84
8.55
310
4.26
3.69
893
.837
.328
OP
EX20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Man
ute
nçã
o e
Su
po
rte
17.2
98.9
0029
.427
.638
70.6
80.2
9088
.145
.179
109.
862.
627
119.
549.
063
121.
527.
671
130.
846.
722
139.
528.
153
147.
473.
870
154.
625.
015
161.
061.
046
166.
853.
474
172.
066.
659
Alu
gue
l de
to
rre
e s
ite
560.
807
1.04
5.28
25.
849.
825
11.8
42.2
3914
.170
.506
17.3
79.0
4918
.288
.303
19.1
11.2
7719
.971
.284
20.8
69.9
9221
.809
.142
22.7
90.5
5323
.816
.128
24.8
87.8
5426
.007
.807
Ene
rgia
elé
tric
a4.
060.
324
11.7
73.8
8527
.875
.709
47.5
47.9
1762
.129
.984
75.4
73.9
9474
.900
.133
87.9
84.9
8391
.944
.307
96.0
81.8
0110
0.40
5.48
210
4.92
3.72
910
9.64
5.29
611
4.57
9.33
511
9.73
5.40
5
Tota
l OP
EX0
4.62
1.13
030
.118
.067
63.1
53.1
7113
0.07
0.44
616
4.44
5.66
920
2.71
5.67
021
2.73
7.49
922
8.62
3.93
024
2.76
2.31
325
6.47
9.94
626
9.68
8.49
428
2.33
9.29
729
4.52
2.47
030
6.32
0.66
231
7.80
9.87
0
Flu
xo d
e C
aixa
Liv
re20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Re
ceit
a B
ruta
Se
rviç
os
4G53
.611
.329
199.
729.
121
359.
715.
941
858.
218.
851
2.70
9.57
7.86
24.
682.
332.
065
5.62
7.95
7.11
26.
511.
224.
936
7.80
3.75
9.97
29.
176.
529.
891
10.2
38.2
20.4
5610
.919
.500
.001
11.5
69.4
59.9
2812
.251
.351
.793
13.1
13.0
01.9
38
Re
ceit
a d
up
lica
da
-13.
959.
744
-37.
153.
561
-57.
356.
326
-140
.921
.315
-4
68.0
44.7
69
-855
.444
.438
-1
.035
.027
.894
-1
.211
.575
.919
-1
.464
.167
.214
-1
.706
.256
.447
-1
.871
.627
.109
-1
.950
.871
.054
-2
.017
.855
.949
-2
.085
.985
.455
-2
.179
.611
.468
Re
ceit
a Lí
qu
ida
27.8
67.0
3511
4.25
7.69
721
2.49
7.58
250
4.11
4.91
51.
575.
343.
854
2.68
9.52
7.05
73.
227.
899.
172
3.72
4.58
0.08
04.
455.
449.
941
5.25
0.08
9.50
15.
880.
020.
888
6.30
3.13
0.00
26.
712.
843.
397
7.14
4.19
4.04
97.
683.
959.
489
EBIT
DA
Incr
em
en
tal
7.36
9.38
630
.215
.236
56.1
94.5
9113
3.31
2.25
341
6.59
6.75
571
1.24
0.43
385
3.61
1.93
998
4.95
8.28
21.
178.
235.
459
1.38
8.37
6.41
41.
554.
960.
599
1.66
6.85
1.01
81.
775.
198.
964
1.88
9.26
8.84
22.
032.
008.
810
Re
du
ção
de
Cu
sto
s0
00
31.9
91.6
3210
7.31
3.66
015
8.80
0.78
519
3.97
0.25
318
9.74
4.93
920
1.53
6.00
921
3.10
5.19
422
3.91
0.47
523
4.44
3.24
324
4.55
6.99
725
4.95
2.25
726
5.21
3.52
8
De
pre
ciaç
ão0
-34.
597.
800
-58.
855.
275
-141
.360
.579
-1
76.2
90.3
59
-219
.725
.254
-2
39.0
98.1
27
-243
.055
.342
-2
61.6
93.4
43
-279
.056
.306
-2
94.9
47.7
40
-274
.652
.230
-2
63.2
66.8
17
-192
.346
.368
-1
67.8
42.9
58
Am
ort
izaç
ão L
ice
nça
s-2
.719
.161
-2
4.57
4.75
3 -2
4.94
5.78
9 -2
5.23
1.32
1 -3
0.02
6.00
1 -7
0.51
6.30
8 -7
0.72
6.69
5 -7
0.82
0.54
1 -7
0.82
7.48
0 -7
0.82
7.48
0 -7
0.82
7.48
0 -7
0.82
7.48
0 -7
0.82
7.48
0 -7
0.82
7.48
0 -7
0.82
7.48
0
Lucr
o B
ruto
4.65
0.22
5-2
8.95
7.31
7 -2
7.60
6.47
3 -1
.288
.015
31
7.59
4.05
557
9.79
9.65
673
7.75
7.37
086
0.82
7.33
81.
047.
250.
545
1.25
1.59
7.82
21.
413.
095.
854
1.55
5.81
4.55
01.
685.
661.
664
1.88
1.04
7.25
12.
058.
551.
900
Pro
jeçã
o d
e IR
PJ+
CSL
L-1
.581
.076
9.
845.
488
9.38
6.20
143
7.92
5-1
07.9
81.9
79
-197
.131
.883
-2
50.8
37.5
06
-292
.681
.295
-3
56.0
65.1
85
-425
.543
.259
-4
80.4
52.5
90
-528
.976
.947
-5
73.1
24.9
66
-639
.556
.065
-6
99.9
07.6
46
Re
sult
ado
Op
era
cio
nal
5.78
8.30
940
.060
.723
65.5
80.7
9216
5.74
1.81
041
5.92
8.43
667
2.90
9.33
579
6.74
4.68
688
2.02
1.92
61.
023.
706.
282
1.17
5.93
8.34
81.
298.
418.
483
1.37
2.31
7.31
31.
446.
630.
995
1.50
4.66
5.03
41.
597.
314.
692
128
APÊNDICE J – Árvore binomial da TIM
Figura 19: Amostra da árvore binomial do projeto da TIM (em R$ milhões) Fonte: Resultados da pesquisa
Mo
de
lo B
ino
mia
l par
a cá
lcu
lo d
o v
alo
r d
e u
ma
op
ção
de
co
mp
ra
Val
or
do
Ati
voV
Po
3.1
34
,58
Taxa
de
sub
ida
u1
,13
48
Pas
sos
po
r an
ot
0,1
0Ta
xa d
e q
ued
ad
0,8
81
2B
enef
ício
2.0
60
,94
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Vo
lati
tilid
ade
anu
als
40
,0%
Pro
b. d
e su
bid
ap
0,5
01
5Ex
ercí
cio
55
4,7
60,
0071
1,88
941,
141.
734,
672.
800,
423.
489,
853.
774,
343.
557,
353.
617,
743.
627,
103.
581,
983.
480,
413.
325,
313.
119,
152.
864,
052.
561,
78
Taxa
de
juro
s an
ual
rf8
,39
%P
rob
. de
des
cid
a1
- p
0,4
98
5
2012
2013
2014
2015
01
23
45
67
89
1011
1213
1415
1617
1819
2021
2223
2425
2627
2829
30
3.13
53.
557
4.03
74.
581
5.19
95.
900
6.69
67.
598
8.62
39.
786
11.1
0512
.603
14.3
0216
.230
18.4
1920
.902
23.7
2126
.919
30.5
4934
.668
39.3
4344
.648
50.6
6857
.500
65.2
5474
.052
84.0
3895
.369
108.
229
122.
822
139.
383
4.32
44.
731
5.19
95.
735
6.34
87.
048
7.84
58.
752
9.78
210
.952
12.2
7913
.786
15.4
9417
.432
19.6
3122
.125
24.9
5328
.162
31.8
0235
.932
40.6
1745
.933
51.9
6458
.807
66.5
7175
.381
85.3
7896
.720
109.
591
124.
196
140.
769
2.76
23.
135
3.55
74.
037
4.58
15.
199
5.90
06.
696
7.59
88.
623
9.78
611
.105
12.6
0314
.302
16.2
3018
.419
20.9
0223
.721
26.9
1930
.549
34.6
6839
.343
44.6
4850
.668
57.5
0065
.254
74.0
5284
.038
95.3
6910
8.22
9
3.98
84.
340
4.74
75.
215
5.75
16.
365
7.06
57.
862
8.77
09.
800
10.9
7012
.299
13.8
0515
.514
17.4
5319
.651
22.1
4524
.974
28.1
8331
.824
35.9
5340
.639
45.9
5551
.986
58.8
2966
.594
75.4
0485
.400
96.7
4310
9.61
4
2.43
42.
762
3.13
53.
557
4.03
74.
581
5.19
95.
900
6.69
67.
598
8.62
39.
786
11.1
0512
.603
14.3
0216
.230
18.4
1920
.902
23.7
2126
.919
30.5
4934
.668
39.3
4344
.648
50.6
6857
.500
65.2
5474
.052
84.0
38
1.18
9,66
3.70
04.
004
4.35
64.
763
5.23
15.
768
6.38
27.
082
7.88
08.
788
9.81
910
.990
12.3
1813
.825
15.5
3517
.473
19.6
7222
.166
24.9
9528
.204
31.8
4535
.975
40.6
6145
.977
52.0
0858
.852
66.6
1675
.426
85.4
23
2.14
52.
434
2.76
23.
135
3.55
74.
037
4.58
15.
199
5.90
06.
696
7.59
88.
623
9.78
611
.105
12.6
0314
.302
16.2
3018
.419
20.9
0223
.721
26.9
1930
.549
34.6
6839
.343
44.6
4850
.668
57.5
0065
.254
3.45
73.
717
4.02
04.
372
4.77
95.
247
5.78
46.
399
7.10
07.
898
8.80
79.
838
11.0
1012
.338
13.8
4615
.555
17.4
9419
.693
22.1
8725
.017
28.2
2631
.867
35.9
9740
.683
45.9
9952
.031
58.8
7466
.639
1.89
02.
145
2.43
42.
762
3.13
53.
557
4.03
74.
581
5.19
95.
900
6.69
67.
598
8.62
39.
786
11.1
0512
.603
14.3
0216
.230
18.4
1920
.902
23.7
2126
.919
30.5
4934
.668
39.3
4344
.648
50.6
68
3.25
33.
475
3.73
44.
037
4.38
84.
795
5.26
35.
801
6.41
67.
118
7.91
78.
826
9.85
811
.030
12.3
5913
.867
15.5
7617
.515
19.7
1522
.209
25.0
3928
.248
31.8
8936
.019
40.7
0546
.022
52.0
54
1.66
51.
890
2.14
52.
434
2.76
23.
135
3.55
74.
037
4.58
15.
199
5.90
06.
696
7.59
88.
623
9.78
611
.105
12.6
0314
.302
16.2
3018
.419
20.9
0223
.721
26.9
1930
.549
34.6
6839
.343
3.08
53.
272
3.49
23.
751
4.05
34.
405
4.81
15.
280
5.81
86.
433
7.13
67.
936
8.84
59.
878
11.0
5012
.380
13.8
8815
.598
17.5
3719
.736
22.2
3125
.061
28.2
7031
.912
36.0
4240
.728
1.46
71.
665
1.89
02.
145
2.43
42.
762
3.13
53.
557
4.03
74.
581
5.19
95.
900
6.69
67.
598
8.62
39.
786
11.1
0512
.603
14.3
0216
.230
18.4
1920
.902
23.7
2126
.919
30.5
49
2.94
83.
105
3.29
13.
510
3.76
84.
070
4.42
14.
827
5.29
65.
835
6.45
17.
154
7.95
58.
865
9.89
911
.071
12.4
0113
.909
15.6
2017
.559
19.7
5922
.254
25.0
8328
.293
31.9
35
1.29
31.
467
1.66
51.
890
2.14
52.
434
2.76
23.
135
3.55
74.
037
4.58
15.
199
5.90
06.
696
7.59
88.
623
9.78
611
.105
12.6
0314
.302
16.2
3018
.419
20.9
0223
.721
2.84
02.
970
3.12
63.
310
3.52
83.
785
4.08
64.
437
4.84
45.
313
5.85
26.
469
7.17
37.
975
8.88
69.
920
11.0
9312
.423
13.9
3115
.642
17.5
8119
.781
22.2
7625
.106
1.13
91.
293
1.46
71.
665
1.89
02.
145
2.43
42.
762
3.13
53.
557
4.03
74.
581
5.19
95.
900
6.69
67.
598
8.62
39.
786
11.1
0512
.603
14.3
0216
.230
18.4
19
2.75
72.
864
2.99
33.
146
3.32
93.
546
3.80
24.
102
4.45
34.
860
5.33
05.
870
6.48
87.
193
7.99
58.
907
9.94
111
.115
12.4
4513
.954
15.6
6417
.604
19.8
04
1.00
41.
139
1.29
31.
467
1.66
51.
890
2.14
52.
434
2.76
23.
135
3.55
74.
037
4.58
15.
199
5.90
06.
696
7.59
88.
623
9.78
611
.105
12.6
0314
.302
2.69
62.
783
2.88
93.
015
3.16
73.
348
3.56
43.
819
4.11
94.
469
4.87
65.
347
5.88
86.
507
7.21
38.
016
8.92
89.
963
11.1
3712
.468
13.9
7615
.687
885
1.00
41.
139
1.29
31.
467
1.66
51.
890
2.14
52.
434
2.76
23.
135
3.55
74.
037
4.58
15.
199
5.90
06.
696
7.59
88.
623
9.78
611
.105
2.65
32.
724
2.81
02.
913
3.03
83.
187
3.36
73.
581
3.83
54.
135
4.48
54.
893
5.36
45.
906
6.52
67.
233
8.03
78.
950
9.98
611
.160
12.4
91
780
885
1.00
41.
139
1.29
31.
467
1.66
51.
890
2.14
52.
434
2.76
23.
135
3.55
74.
037
4.58
15.
199
5.90
06.
696
7.59
88.
623
2.62
62.
684
2.75
32.
837
2.93
83.
060
3.20
83.
386
3.59
93.
852
4.15
14.
501
4.90
95.
382
5.92
56.
546
7.25
48.
059
8.97
310
.008
687
780
885
1.00
41.
139
1.29
31.
467
1.66
51.
890
2.14
52.
434
2.76
23.
135
3.55
74.
037
4.58
15.
199
5.90
06.
696
2.61
12.
659
2.71
52.
783
2.86
42.
963
3.08
33.
229
3.40
53.
616
3.86
84.
166
4.51
74.
926
5.39
95.
944
6.56
67.
276
8.08
1
605
687
780
885
1.00
41.
139
1.29
31.
467
1.66
51.
890
2.14
52.
434
2.76
23.
135
3.55
74.
037
4.58
15.
199
2.60
72.
647
2.69
32.
748
2.81
32.
892
2.98
93.
106
3.25
03.
423
3.63
33.
884
4.18
24.
533
4.94
35.
417
5.96
36.
587
533
605
687
780
885
1.00
41.
139
1.29
31.
467
1.66
51.
890
2.14
52.
434
2.76
23.
135
3.55
74.
037
2.61
22.
645
2.68
32.
728
2.78
12.
844
2.92
13.
015
3.13
03.
270
3.44
13.
649
3.89
94.
197
4.54
84.
959
5.43
6
470
533
605
687
780
885
1.00
41.
139
1.29
31.
467
1.66
51.
890
2.14
52.
434
2.76
23.
135
2.62
22.
651
2.68
42.
721
2.76
42.
815
2.87
62.
950
3.04
13.
153
3.29
03.
459
3.66
53.
914
4.21
14.
563
414
470
533
605
687
780
885
1.00
41.
139
1.29
31.
467
1.66
51.
890
2.14
52.
434
2.63
62.
663
2.69
22.
723
2.75
92.
801
2.85
02.
908
2.98
03.
067
3.17
63.
311
3.47
73.
680
3.92
7
365
414
470
533
605
687
780
885
1.00
41.
139
1.29
31.
467
1.66
51.
890
2.65
42.
679
2.70
52.
733
2.76
42.
799
2.83
92.
885
2.94
13.
010
3.09
43.
199
3.33
03.
493
322
365
414
470
533
605
687
780
885
1.00
41.
139
1.29
31.
467
2.67
42.
697
2.72
22.
748
2.77
62.
806
2.83
92.
877
2.92
22.
975
3.04
13.
121
3.22
3
283
322
365
414
470
533
605
687
780
885
1.00
41.
139
2.69
52.
718
2.74
22.
767
2.79
22.
819
2.84
92.
881
2.91
72.
960
3.01
03.
072
250
283
322
365
414
470
533
605
687
780
885
2.71
72.
740
2.76
32.
787
2.81
22.
837
2.86
42.
893
2.92
42.
959
2.99
9
220
250
283
322
365
414
470
533
605
687
2.73
92.
762
2.78
62.
809
2.83
42.
858
2.88
42.
910
2.93
82.
968
194
220
250
283
322
365
414
470
533
2.76
22.
785
2.80
92.
832
2.85
62.
881
2.90
62.
931
2.95
7
171
194
220
250
283
322
365
414
2.78
52.
808
2.83
22.
856
2.88
02.
904
2.92
92.
954
151
171
194
220
250
283
322
2.80
82.
832
2.85
62.
880
2.90
42.
928
2.95
3
133
151
171
194
220
250
2.83
22.
856
2.88
02.
904
2.92
82.
953
117
133
151
171
194
2.85
62.
880
2.90
42.
928
2.95
3
103
117
133
151
2.88
02.
904
2.92
82.
953
9110
311
7
2.90
42.
928
2.95
3
8091
2.92
82.
953
70
2.95
3
Op
ção
de
Exp
. 20
15
Op
ção
de
Ab
and
on
o
129
APÊNDICE K – Resultados da simulação de Monte Carlo da TIM
Figura 20: Distribuição de probabilidade da variável Z para a empresa TIM Fonte: Tela com resultado da simulação pelo Crystal Ball ®
Figura 21: Distribuição de probabilidade do VPL para a empresa TIM Fonte: Tela com resultado da simulação pelo Crystal Ball ®
130
Figura 22: Distribuição de probabilidade da TIR para a empresa TIM Fonte: Tela com resultado da simulação pelo Crystal Ball ®
Figura 23: Distribuição de probabilidade do período de payback para a empresa TIM Fonte: Tela com resultado da simulação pelo Crystal Ball ®
Figura 24: Distribuição de probabilidade do eVPL para a empresa TIM Fonte: Tela com resultado da simulação pelo Crystal Ball ®
131
APÊNDICE L – Resultados da empresa Oi
Tabela 27: Fluxo de caixa base e expandido - Oi
Fonte: Resultados da pesquisa
4G -
Fai
xa 2
,5 G
Hz
sem
fle
xib
ilid
ade
s
Inve
stim
en
tos
(CA
PEX
)20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Lice
nça
s +
Gar
anti
as A
nat
el
39.8
72.5
1431
9.18
6.42
35.
565.
547
4.28
2.97
62.
541.
730
12.0
986.
850
00
00
00
00
0
LTE
e-N
od
eB
(ER
B)
103.
793.
400
72.7
72.4
2524
7.51
5.91
234
5.52
0.30
325
3.60
1.65
714
8.17
2.31
68.
706.
951
95.7
20.8
5289
.171
.531
81.6
14.6
2173
.453
.159
66.1
07.8
4359
.497
.059
53.5
47.3
5348
.192
.618
LTE
Ne
two
rk17
2.98
9.00
012
1.28
7.37
541
2.52
6.52
057
5.86
7.17
142
2.66
9.42
824
6.95
3.86
014
.511
.585
159.
534.
754
148.
619.
218
136.
024.
369
122.
421.
932
110.
179.
739
99.1
61.7
6589
.245
.588
80.3
21.0
30
LTE
Ou
tro
s69
.195
.600
48.5
14.9
5016
5.01
0.60
823
0.34
6.86
916
9.06
7.77
198
.781
.544
5.80
4.63
463
.813
.901
59.4
47.6
8754
.409
.748
48.9
68.7
7344
.071
.896
39.6
64.7
0635
.698
.235
32.1
28.4
12
Tota
l CA
PEX
39.8
72.5
1466
5.16
4.42
324
8.14
0.29
782
9.33
6.01
61.
154.
276.
072
845.
350.
954
493.
914.
570
29.0
23.1
7031
9.06
9.50
729
7.23
8.43
627
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8.73
824
4.84
3.86
422
0.35
9.47
819
8.32
3.53
017
8.49
1.17
716
0.64
2.05
9
OP
EX20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Man
ute
nçã
o e
Su
po
rte
17.2
98.9
0029
.427
.638
70.6
80.2
9012
8.26
7.00
717
0.53
3.94
919
5.22
9.33
519
6.68
0.49
421
2.63
3.96
922
7.49
5.89
124
1.09
8.32
825
3.34
0.52
126
4.35
8.49
527
4.27
4.67
228
3.19
9.23
0
Alu
gue
l de
to
rre
e s
ite
560.
807
1.03
8.62
44.
471.
337
27.7
39.1
3842
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58.6
43.1
1161
.973
.483
64.7
62.2
8967
.676
.592
70.7
22.0
3973
.421
.907
76.3
04.7
4279
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82.6
51.0
1886
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Ene
rgia
elé
tric
a4.
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324
11.7
73.8
8527
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60.7
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129.
313.
006
146.
342.
359
153.
621.
195
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534.
148
167.
758.
185
175.
307.
303
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196.
132
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439.
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054.
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057.
220
Tota
l OP
EX0
4.62
1.13
030
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61.7
74.6
8415
9.12
2.54
126
8.97
4.06
335
8.49
0.06
740
3.54
5.17
741
5.06
3.97
844
0.84
4.71
046
5.97
6.11
548
9.82
7.53
851
2.84
1.39
553
4.97
1.83
755
6.98
0.44
657
8.53
7.76
4
Flu
xo d
e C
aixa
Liv
re20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Re
ceit
a B
ruta
Se
rviç
os
4G37
.515
.963
140.
513.
980
253.
819.
426
605.
361.
099
1.91
6.23
8.04
23.
316.
956.
069
3.98
8.03
2.22
44.
611.
508.
712
5.52
1.76
4.96
96.
488.
575.
471
7.23
7.23
4.27
17.
719.
129.
842
8.17
9.42
4.99
88.
662.
399.
747
9.27
2.58
9.83
3
Re
ceit
a d
up
lica
da
-11.
423.
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436
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935.
726
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57
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-8
46.9
82.1
72
-991
.454
.636
-1
.198
.154
.692
-1
.396
.260
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-1
.531
.586
.542
-1
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.433
.306
-1
.651
.248
.265
-1
.706
.999
.881
-1
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Re
ceit
a Lí
qu
ida
18.3
37.7
0977
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145.
397.
348
344.
400.
729
1.07
7.54
9.14
61.
839.
172.
079
2.20
7.52
2.12
42.
544.
164.
955
3.03
8.62
2.49
43.
578.
866.
077
4.00
9.91
4.95
94.
303.
015.
819
4.58
7.98
6.28
74.
888.
237.
637
5.26
3.23
2.26
2
EBIT
DA
Incr
em
en
tal
5.55
4.40
923
.439
.693
44.0
40.2
0010
4.31
7.42
632
6.38
4.77
255
7.07
6.91
966
8.64
8.48
577
0.61
6.07
992
0.38
5.03
51.
084.
022.
377
1.21
4.58
5.13
81.
303.
364.
065
1.38
9.68
0.33
31.
480.
625.
112
1.59
4.20
9.29
1
De
pre
ciaç
ão0
-34.
597.
800
-58.
855.
275
-141
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-2
56.5
34.0
13
-341
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.899
-3
90.4
58.6
71
-393
.360
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-4
25.2
67.9
39
-454
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-4
82.1
96.6
56
-506
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-5
28.7
16.9
90
-548
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-5
66.3
98.4
61
Am
ort
izaç
ão L
ice
nça
s-2
.658
.168
-2
3.93
7.26
2 -2
4.30
8.29
9 -2
4.59
3.83
1 -2
4.76
3.27
9 -2
4.76
4.08
6 -2
4.76
4.54
3 -2
4.76
4.54
3 -2
4.76
4.54
3 -2
4.76
4.54
3 -2
4.76
4.54
3 -2
4.76
4.54
3 -2
4.76
4.54
3 -2
4.76
4.54
3 -2
4.76
4.54
3
Lucr
o B
ruto
2.89
6.24
2-3
5.09
5.37
0 -3
9.12
3.37
4 -6
1.63
6.98
4 45
.087
.479
191.
244.
935
253.
425.
272
352.
490.
548
470.
352.
554
604.
266.
053
707.
623.
940
771.
918.
480
836.
198.
801
907.
311.
226
1.00
3.04
6.28
7
Pro
jeçã
o d
e IR
PJ+
CSL
L-9
84.7
22
11.9
32.4
2613
.301
.947
20.9
56.5
74-1
5.32
9.74
3 -6
5.02
3.27
8 -8
6.16
4.59
2 -1
19.8
46.7
86
-159
.919
.868
-2
05.4
50.4
58
-240
.592
.139
-2
62.4
52.2
83
-284
.307
.592
-3
08.4
85.8
17
-341
.035
.738
Re
sult
ado
Op
era
cio
nal
4.56
9.68
735
.372
.119
57.3
42.1
4712
5.27
4.00
031
1.05
5.02
949
2.05
3.64
258
2.48
3.89
365
0.76
9.29
276
0.46
5.16
787
8.57
1.91
997
3.99
2.99
91.
040.
911.
782
1.10
5.37
2.74
11.
172.
139.
295
1.25
3.17
3.55
3
Inve
stim
en
tos
(CA
PEX
)-3
.377
.868
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Var
iaçã
o C
CL
-1.3
25.8
16
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49
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17.2
63
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111
Flu
xo d
e C
aixa
Liv
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.377
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3.
243.
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31.1
02.9
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110.
886.
056
258.
048.
398
436.
988.
304
555.
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185
626.
430.
016
724.
715.
887
839.
512.
308
942.
828.
164
1.01
9.72
0.59
01.
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769.
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21.
226.
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442
4G -
Fai
xa 2
,5 G
Hz
com
aq
uis
ição
da
faix
a d
e 7
00 M
hz
Inve
stim
en
tos
(CA
PEX
)20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Lice
nça
s +
Gar
anti
as A
nat
el
39.8
72.5
1431
9.18
6.42
35.
565.
547
4.28
2.97
671
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607.
354.
604
3.15
5.79
61.
407.
699
104.
075
00
00
00
0
LTE
e-N
od
eB
(ER
B)
103.
793.
400
72.7
72.4
2524
7.51
5.91
210
4.78
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013
0.30
4.68
458
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11.8
71.6
4555
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52.0
88.5
8947
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42.9
06.8
7138
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34.7
54.5
6631
.279
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28.1
51.1
98
LTE
Ne
two
rk17
2.98
9.00
012
1.28
7.37
541
2.52
6.52
017
4.64
8.89
921
7.17
4.47
496
.864
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19.7
86.0
7493
.190
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86.8
14.3
1579
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.169
71.5
11.4
5264
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57.9
24.2
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46.9
18.6
64
LTE
Ou
tro
s69
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48.5
14.9
5016
5.01
0.60
869
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86.8
69.7
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7.91
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037
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34.7
25.7
2631
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28.6
04.5
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69.7
1120
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18.7
67.4
66
Tota
l CA
PEX
39.8
72.5
1466
5.16
4.42
324
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9.33
6.01
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61.
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884.
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40.9
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8.91
4.33
914
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512
8.72
0.61
411
5.84
8.55
310
4.26
3.69
893
.837
.328
OP
EX20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Man
ute
nçã
o e
Su
po
rte
17.2
98.9
0029
.427
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70.6
80.2
9088
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.179
109.
862.
627
119.
549.
063
121.
527.
671
130.
846.
722
139.
528.
153
147.
473.
870
154.
625.
015
161.
061.
046
166.
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474
172.
066.
659
Alu
gue
l de
to
rre
e s
ite
560.
807
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8.62
44.
471.
337
10.4
01.7
2011
.885
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15.5
34.4
6916
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17.0
96.9
5017
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18.6
70.2
9619
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Ene
rgia
elé
tric
a4.
060.
324
11.7
73.8
8527
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47.5
47.9
1762
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75.4
73.9
9474
.900
.133
87.9
84.9
8391
.944
.307
96.0
81.8
0110
0.40
5.48
210
4.92
3.72
910
9.64
5.29
611
4.57
9.33
511
9.73
5.40
5
Tota
l OP
EX0
4.62
1.13
030
.111
.410
61.7
74.6
8412
8.62
9.92
616
2.16
0.91
120
0.87
1.09
121
0.80
9.91
322
6.60
9.60
324
0.65
7.34
125
4.28
0.25
026
7.38
9.81
227
9.93
7.17
429
2.01
2.25
230
3.69
7.48
431
5.06
8.64
9
Flu
xo d
e C
aixa
Liv
re20
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
27
Re
ceit
a B
ruta
Se
rviç
os
4G37
.515
.963
140.
513.
980
253.
819.
426
605.
361.
099
1.91
6.23
8.04
23.
316.
956.
069
3.98
8.03
2.22
44.
611.
508.
712
5.52
1.76
4.96
96.
488.
575.
471
7.23
7.23
4.27
17.
719.
129.
842
8.17
9.42
4.99
88.
662.
399.
747
9.27
2.58
9.83
3
Re
ceit
a d
up
lica
da
-11.
423.
513
-30.
403.
436
-46.
935.
726
-115
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-383
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-991
.454
.636
-1.1
98.1
54.6
92-1
.396
.260
.719
-1.5
31.5
86.5
42-1
.596
.433
.306
-1.6
51.2
48.2
65-1
.706
.999
.881
-1.7
83.6
15.7
51
Re
ceit
a Lí
qu
ida
18.3
37.7
0977
.385
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145.
397.
348
344.
400.
729
1.07
7.54
9.14
61.
839.
172.
079
2.20
7.52
2.12
42.
544.
164.
955
3.03
8.62
2.49
43.
578.
866.
077
4.00
9.91
4.95
94.
303.
015.
819
4.58
7.98
6.28
74.
888.
237.
637
5.26
3.23
2.26
2
EBIT
DA
Incr
em
en
tal
5.55
4.40
923
.439
.693
44.0
40.2
0010
4.31
7.42
632
6.38
4.77
255
7.07
6.91
966
8.64
8.48
577
0.61
6.07
992
0.38
5.03
51.
084.
022.
377
1.21
4.58
5.13
81.
303.
364.
065
1.38
9.68
0.33
31.
480.
625.
112
1.59
4.20
9.29
1
Re
du
ção
de
Cu
sto
s0
00
30.4
92.6
1410
6.81
3.15
215
7.61
8.97
619
2.73
5.26
318
8.45
4.37
520
0.18
7.36
921
1.69
5.86
522
2.43
7.72
723
2.90
4.22
024
2.95
9.58
525
3.28
2.96
226
3.46
9.11
4
De
pre
ciaç
ão0
-34.
597.
800
-58.
855.
275
-141
.360
.579
-176
.290
.359
-219
.725
.254
-239
.098
.127
-243
.055
.342
-261
.693
.443
-279
.056
.306
-294
.947
.740
-274
.652
.230
-263
.266
.817
-192
.346
.368
-167
.842
.958
Am
ort
izaç
ão L
ice
nça
s-2
.658
.168
-23.
937.
262
-24.
308.
299
-24.
593.
831
-29.
388.
511
-69.
878.
818
-70.
089.
204
-70.
183.
051
-70.
189.
989
-70.
189.
989
-70.
189.
989
-70.
189.
989
-70.
189.
989
-70.
189.
989
-70.
189.
989
Lucr
o B
ruto
2.89
6.24
2-3
5.09
5.37
0-3
9.12
3.37
4-3
1.14
4.36
922
7.51
9.05
442
5.09
1.82
455
2.19
6.41
764
5.83
2.06
178
8.68
8.97
294
6.47
1.94
71.
071.
885.
135
1.19
1.42
6.06
61.
299.
183.
112
1.47
1.37
1.71
61.
619.
645.
457
Pro
jeçã
o d
e IR
PJ+
CSL
L-9
84.7
2211
.932
.426
13.3
01.9
4710
.589
.086
-77.
356.
478
-144
.531
.220
-187
.746
.782
-219
.582
.901
-268
.154
.250
-321
.800
.462
-364
.440
.946
-405
.084
.862
-441
.722
.258
-500
.266
.383
-550
.679
.456
Re
sult
ado
Op
era
cio
nal
4.56
9.68
735
.372
.119
57.3
42.1
4714
5.39
9.12
635
5.84
1.44
657
0.16
4.67
667
3.63
6.96
773
9.48
7.55
385
2.41
8.15
497
3.91
7.78
01.
072.
581.
919
1.13
1.18
3.42
31.
190.
917.
660
1.23
3.64
1.69
01.
306.
998.
950
132
APÊNDICE M – Árvore binomial da Oi
Figura 25: Amostra da árvore binomial do projeto da Oi (em R$ milhões) Fonte: Resultados da pesquisa
Mo
de
lo B
ino
mia
l
Val
or
do
Ati
voV
Po
2.9
56
,36
Taxa
de
sub
ida
u1
,13
48
Pas
sos
po
r an
ot
0,1
0Ta
xa d
e q
ued
ad
0,8
81
2B
enef
ício
2.1
35
,61
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Vo
lati
tilid
ade
anu
als
40
,0%
Pro
b. d
e su
bid
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403.
481,
063.
765,
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549,
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609,
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619,
353.
574,
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253.
318,
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112,
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872.
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Taxa
de
juro
s an
ual
rf8
,39
%P
rob
. de
des
cid
a1
- p
0,4
98
5
2012
2013
2014
2015
01
23
45
67
89
1011
1213
1415
1617
1819
2021
2223
2425
2627
2829
30
2.95
63.
355
3.80
74.
321
4.90
35.
565
6.31
57.
166
8.13
39.
229
10.4
7411
.886
13.4
8915
.307
17.3
7219
.714
22.3
7225
.389
28.8
1232
.697
37.1
0642
.109
47.7
8754
.231
61.5
4469
.842
79.2
5989
.947
102.
075
115.
839
131.
459
4.18
84.
572
5.01
45.
520
6.09
86.
759
7.51
18.
367
9.34
010
.444
11.6
9713
.119
14.7
3116
.560
18.6
3520
.988
23.6
5626
.684
30.1
1834
.014
38.4
3443
.448
49.1
3855
.593
62.9
1771
.227
80.6
5691
.355
103.
495
117.
271
132.
902
2.60
52.
956
3.35
53.
807
4.32
14.
903
5.56
56.
315
7.16
68.
133
9.22
910
.474
11.8
8613
.489
15.3
0717
.372
19.7
1422
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25.3
8928
.812
32.6
9737
.106
42.1
0947
.787
54.2
3161
.544
69.8
4279
.259
89.9
4710
2.07
5
3.87
24.
205
4.58
95.
030
5.53
76.
116
6.77
77.
530
8.38
69.
359
10.4
6411
.717
13.1
3914
.752
16.5
8118
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21.0
0923
.678
26.7
0630
.140
34.0
3638
.456
43.4
7149
.160
55.6
1662
.940
71.2
5080
.679
91.3
7810
3.51
9
2.29
62.
605
2.95
63.
355
3.80
74.
321
4.90
35.
565
6.31
57.
166
8.13
39.
229
10.4
7411
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13.4
8915
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17.3
7219
.714
22.3
7225
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28.8
1232
.697
37.1
0642
.109
47.7
8754
.231
61.5
4469
.842
79.2
59
1.23
1,70
3.60
33.
889
4.22
24.
606
5.04
75.
554
6.13
36.
795
7.54
88.
405
9.37
910
.484
11.7
3813
.160
14.7
7316
.603
18.6
7721
.031
23.7
0026
.728
30.1
6234
.059
38.4
7943
.494
49.1
8455
.639
62.9
6371
.274
80.7
03
2.02
32.
296
2.60
52.
956
3.35
53.
807
4.32
14.
903
5.56
56.
315
7.16
68.
133
9.22
910
.474
11.8
8613
.489
15.3
0717
.372
19.7
1422
.372
25.3
8928
.812
32.6
9737
.106
42.1
0947
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54.2
3161
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3.37
53.
621
3.90
74.
239
4.62
25.
064
5.57
16.
151
6.81
37.
567
8.42
59.
399
10.5
0411
.759
13.1
8114
.795
16.6
2418
.699
21.0
5323
.722
26.7
5030
.185
34.0
8238
.502
43.5
1749
.207
55.6
6362
.987
1.78
22.
023
2.29
62.
605
2.95
63.
355
3.80
74.
321
4.90
35.
565
6.31
57.
166
8.13
39.
229
10.4
7411
.886
13.4
8915
.307
17.3
7219
.714
22.3
7225
.389
28.8
1232
.697
37.1
0642
.109
47.7
87
3.18
53.
394
3.63
93.
924
4.25
64.
639
5.08
15.
589
6.16
96.
832
7.58
78.
445
9.41
910
.525
11.7
8013
.203
14.8
1716
.647
18.7
2221
.076
23.7
4526
.773
30.2
0834
.105
38.5
2643
.541
49.2
31
1.57
11.
782
2.02
32.
296
2.60
52.
956
3.35
53.
807
4.32
14.
903
5.56
56.
315
7.16
68.
133
9.22
910
.474
11.8
8613
.489
15.3
0717
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19.7
1422
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25.3
8928
.812
32.6
9737
.106
3.02
83.
205
3.41
23.
656
3.94
14.
273
4.65
75.
099
5.60
76.
188
6.85
17.
607
8.46
59.
440
10.5
4711
.802
13.2
2514
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16.6
6918
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21.0
9823
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26.7
9730
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34.1
2938
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1.38
41.
571
1.78
22.
023
2.29
62.
605
2.95
63.
355
3.80
74.
321
4.90
35.
565
6.31
57.
166
8.13
39.
229
10.4
7411
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13.4
8915
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17.3
7219
.714
22.3
7225
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28.8
12
2.90
23.
049
3.22
43.
431
3.67
43.
959
4.29
04.
674
5.11
65.
625
6.20
76.
871
7.62
78.
486
9.46
210
.569
11.8
2413
.248
14.8
6216
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18.7
6821
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23.7
9226
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30.2
56
1.22
01.
384
1.57
11.
782
2.02
32.
296
2.60
52.
956
3.35
53.
807
4.32
14.
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5.56
56.
315
7.16
68.
133
9.22
910
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11.8
8613
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15.3
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19.7
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2.80
22.
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3.07
13.
244
3.45
03.
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3.97
64.
307
4.69
15.
134
5.64
36.
226
6.89
17.
648
8.50
89.
484
10.5
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13.2
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16.7
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21.1
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220
1.38
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571
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63.
355
3.80
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321
4.90
35.
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6.31
57.
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8.13
39.
229
10.4
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13.4
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17.3
72
2.72
62.
827
2.94
83.
092
3.26
43.
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3.71
03.
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4.32
44.
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5.15
25.
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6.24
56.
911
7.66
98.
529
9.50
610
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11.8
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14.9
0816
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18.8
15
947
1.07
51.
220
1.38
41.
571
1.78
22.
023
2.29
62.
605
2.95
63.
355
3.80
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321
4.90
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6.31
57.
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10.4
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13.4
89
2.67
02.
753
2.85
22.
971
3.11
43.
284
3.48
73.
728
4.01
14.
341
4.72
65.
170
5.68
16.
265
6.93
27.
690
8.55
29.
529
10.6
3711
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13.3
1814
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834
947
1.07
51.
220
1.38
41.
571
1.78
22.
023
2.29
62.
605
2.95
63.
355
3.80
74.
321
4.90
35.
565
6.31
57.
166
8.13
39.
229
10.4
74
2.63
22.
700
2.78
02.
877
2.99
53.
135
3.30
43.
506
3.74
54.
028
4.35
84.
743
5.18
85.
700
6.28
56.
953
7.71
38.
575
9.55
210
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11.9
17
735
834
947
1.07
51.
220
1.38
41.
571
1.78
22.
023
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62.
605
2.95
63.
355
3.80
74.
321
4.90
35.
565
6.31
57.
166
8.13
3
2.60
92.
664
2.72
92.
808
2.90
33.
018
3.15
73.
324
3.52
53.
763
4.04
54.
375
4.76
15.
207
5.71
96.
306
6.97
57.
735
8.59
89.
576
648
735
834
947
1.07
51.
220
1.38
41.
571
1.78
22.
023
2.29
62.
605
2.95
63.
355
3.80
74.
321
4.90
35.
565
6.31
5
2.59
82.
643
2.69
62.
760
2.83
62.
929
3.04
23.
179
3.34
43.
543
3.78
04.
061
4.39
24.
778
5.22
55.
740
6.32
86.
998
7.75
9
571
648
735
834
947
1.07
51.
220
1.38
41.
571
1.78
22.
023
2.29
62.
605
2.95
63.
355
3.80
74.
321
4.90
3
2.59
62.
634
2.67
72.
729
2.79
12.
865
2.95
63.
066
3.20
03.
364
3.56
13.
797
4.07
84.
409
4.79
65.
244
5.76
06.
350
503
571
648
735
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947
1.07
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220
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62.
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2.95
63.
355
3.80
7
2.60
22.
634
2.67
02.
713
2.76
32.
822
2.89
42.
982
3.09
03.
222
3.38
33.
578
3.81
34.
094
4.42
64.
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5.26
4
443
503
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1.07
51.
220
1.38
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6
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32.
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2.67
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92.
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2.85
52.
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3.01
03.
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3.24
33.
402
3.59
53.
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4.11
04.
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834
947
1.07
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220
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1.78
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2.29
6
2.62
82.
654
2.68
22.
713
2.74
72.
786
2.83
32.
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2.95
53.
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3.13
93.
265
3.42
03.
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3.84
4
344
391
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648
735
834
947
1.07
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220
1.38
41.
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1.78
2
2.64
62.
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2.69
62.
724
2.75
42.
787
2.82
52.
869
2.92
22.
986
3.06
53.
163
3.28
53.
438
303
344
391
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503
571
648
735
834
947
1.07
51.
220
1.38
4
2.66
62.
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2.71
42.
740
2.76
72.
796
2.82
82.
864
2.90
62.
956
3.01
83.
093
3.18
7
267
303
344
391
443
503
571
648
735
834
947
1.07
5
2.68
82.
711
2.73
42.
759
2.78
42.
810
2.83
92.
870
2.90
52.
945
2.99
23.
050
236
267
303
344
391
443
503
571
648
735
834
2.71
02.
733
2.75
62.
780
2.80
42.
829
2.85
52.
883
2.91
32.
947
2.98
5
208
236
267
303
344
391
443
503
571
648
2.73
22.
755
2.77
82.
802
2.82
62.
850
2.87
62.
902
2.92
92.
958
183
208
236
267
303
344
391
443
503
2.75
52.
778
2.80
22.
825
2.84
92.
873
2.89
82.
923
2.94
9
161
183
208
236
267
303
344
391
2.77
82.
801
2.82
52.
849
2.87
32.
897
2.92
12.
946
142
161
183
208
236
267
303
2.80
12.
825
2.84
92.
872
2.89
72.
921
2.94
6
125
142
161
183
208
236
2.82
52.
849
2.87
22.
897
2.92
12.
945
110
125
142
161
183
2.84
92.
872
2.89
72.
921
2.94
5
9711
012
514
2
2.87
22.
897
2.92
12.
945
8697
110
2.89
72.
921
2.94
5
7586
2.92
12.
945
66
2.94
5
Op
ção
de
Exp
. 20
15
Op
ção
de
Ab
and
on
o
133
APÊNDICE N – Resultados da simulação de Monte Carlo da Oi
Figura 26: Distribuição de probabilidade da variável Z para a empresa Oi Fonte: Tela com resultado da simulação pelo Crystal Ball ®
Figura 27: Distribuição de probabilidade do VPL para a empresa Oi Fonte: Tela com resultado da simulação pelo Crystal Ball ®
134
Figura 28: Distribuição de probabilidade da TIR para a empresa Oi Fonte: Tela com resultado da simulação pelo Crystal Ball ®
Figura 29: Distribuição de probabilidade do período de payback para a empresa Oi Fonte: Tela com resultado da simulação pelo Crystal Ball ®
Figura 30: Distribuição de probabilidade do eVPL para a empresa Oi Fonte: Tela com resultado da simulação pelo Crystal Ball ®