análise da desindustrialização no brasil através da elasticidade-renda da demanda

RDE - REVISTA DE DESENVOLVIMENTO ECONMICO Ano XIV N 26 Dezembro de 2012 Salvador, BA

ANLISE DA DESINDUSTRIALIZAO NO BRASIL ATRAVS DA ELASTICIDADE-RENDA DA DEMANDA

BRBARA FRANOISE CARDOSO1

JEAN DOS SANTOS NASCIMENTO2

1 Mestre em Desenvolvimento Regional pela Universidade Federal do Tocantins. Bacharel em Gesto do Agronegcio pela Universidade Federal de Viosa. E--mail: [email protected]

2 Doutor em Economia Aplicada pela Universidade Federal de Viosa. Mestre em Economia pela Universidade Federal da Paraba. Bacharel em Cincias Econ-micas pela Universidade Federal da Paraba. Professor Adjunto do Colegiado de Economia e do Programa de Ps-graduao em Desenvolvimento Regional da Universidade Federal do Tocantins. E-mail: [email protected]

Resumo#FGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQWOHGP

meno pertencente ao processo de desenvolvimento econmico dos pases SWCPFQGUVGUCVKPIGOWOFGVGTOKPCdo nvel de renda per capita'ODQTCUWCOCPKHGUVCQUGFPQGORTGIQGPCRTQFWQKPFWUVTKCNQRTKPEKRCNHCVQTKPVGTPQGEQPQOKCFGWORCUresponsvel pelo incio do processo FGFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQCOWFCPCPCTGNCQGPVTGCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQT RTQFWVQU KPFWUVTKCNK\CFQUGCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTUGTXKQU&KCPVGFKUUQGUVG VTCDCNJQQDLGVKXQWCPCNKUCT VCNOWFCPC PC GEQPQOKC DTCUKNGKTCCOFG KFGPVKECT UG CFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQQDUGTXCFCPQRCURQFGUGT EQPUKFGTCFCRTGEQEGRQT UGT QRCUWORCU GOFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQQWPCVWTCNRQT UGTQRCUWORCUGOGTIGPVGEQOCNVCTGPFCper capita2CTCCCPNKUGHQTCOGUVKOCFQUOQFGNQUGEQPQOVTKEQUSWGEQPUKFGTCTCOCRGPCUCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCFGUEQPUKFGTCPFQQWVTCUXCTKXGKUGZRNKECVKXCU1UTGUWNVCFQUOQUVTCTCOSWGPQIGTCNCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUKPFWUVTKCNK\CFQU OGPQTSWG GUUCOGUOCGNCUVKEKFCFGRQTUGTXKQUKUVQ C GUVTWVWTCFGFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQdas indstrias est propcia ao incio PCVWTCN PQRTGEQEG FQRTQEGUUQFGFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQPCGEQPQOKCDTCUKNGKTC

Palavras-chave&GUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQ'NCUVKEKFCFGTGPFC FC FGOCPFC+PFUVTKCDTCUKNGKTC

Abstract: &GKPFWUVTKCNK\CVKQPKUCRJGPQO

GPQP DGNQPIKPI VQ VJG GEQPQOKEFGXGNQROGPV RTQEGUU QH EQWPVTKGUYJGP VJG[ TGCEJ C EGTVCKP NGXGN QHKPEQOG RGT ECRKVC #NVJQWIJ KVUOCPKHGUVCVKQPU KU IKXG KP GORNQ[OGPVCPFKPFWUVTKCNRTQFWEVKQPVJGOCKPKPVGTPCNHCEVQTVQVJGGEQPQO[QHCEQWPVT[TGURQPUKDNG HQT KPKVKCVKPI VJGFGKPFWUVTKCNK\CVKQPRTQEGUUKU VJG EJCPIG KP VJG TGNCVKQPUJKRDGVYGGP VJGFGOCPF KPEQOG GNCUVKEKV[ HQTOCPWHCEVWTGFIQQFU CPFVJG FGOCPF KPEQOG GNCUVKEKV[ HQTUGTXKEGU6JWU VJKU UVWF[CKOGF VQCPCN[\GUWEJEJCPIGKPVJG$TC\KNKCPGEQPQO[KPQTFGTVQKFGPVKH[YJGVJGTVJG QDUGTXGF FGKPFWUVTKCNK\CVKQPKP VJG EQWPVT[ ECP DG EQPUKFGTGFGCTN[HQTVJGEQWPVT[DGCFGXGNQRKPIEQWPVT[QTPCVWTCNHQTVJGEQWPVT[DGCFGXGNQRKPIEQWPVT[YKVJJKIJKPEQOGRGTECRKVC(QT VJGCPCN[UKUYGTG GUVKOCVGF GEQPQOGVTKEOQF

GNU VJCV EQPUKFGT QPN[ VJGFGOCPFKPEQOGGNCUVKEKV[FKUTGICTFKPIQVJGTGZRNCPCVQT[XCTKCDNGU1XGTCNN VJGTGUWNVU UJQYGF VJCV VJG FGOCPFKPEQOGGNCUVKEKV[ HQTOCPWHCEVWTGFIQQFU KU NGUU VJCP VJGUCOGGNCUVKEKV[HQTUGTXKEGUKGVJGUVTWEVWTGQHKPFWUVT[UFGXGNQROGPVKUEQPFWEKXGVQ VJGPCVWTCNDGIKPPKPIPQVGCTN[KPVJGFGKPFWUVTKCNK\CVKQPRTQEGUUKP$TC\KNKCPGEQPQO[

Keywords &GKPFWUVTKCNK\CVKQP&GOCPFKPEQOGGNCUVKEKV[$TC\KNKCPKPFWUVT[

JEL: O14

1. Introduo1RTQEGUUQFGFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\C

QWOHGPOGPQSWGXGOICPJCPFQCCVGPQFGGEQPQOKUVCUGOVQFQQOWPFQRQTCHGVCTRTKPEKRCNOGPVGQ UGVQT KPFWUVTKCN FQU RCUGU 6CNprocesso est presente nas principais GEQPQOKCUOWPFKCKU G XGO UGPFQXGTKECFQPQURCUGUFGUGPXQNXKFQUFGUFGCFECFCFG0QURCUGUGOFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQEWLCGEQPQOKC


CKPFC PQ UG GPEQPVTC CXCPCFCC FGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQ XGO UGPFQQDUGTXCFCFGUFGCFECFCFGGOCNIWPUFGUUGURCUGUGFGUFGCFECFCGOQWVTQU

# FGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQ OCKUDGO GPVGPFKFC SWCPFQ UG GPVGPFG UGW EQPEGKVQ G UWCU HQTOCU FGOCPKHGUVCQ PC GEQPQOKCFG WORCU5GWEQPEGKVQGUVFKTGVCOGPVGTGNCEKQPCFQCWOFGVGTOKPCFQPXGNde renda per capita'UVGPXGNOQUVTCQITCWFGFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQFGWORCUGSWCPFQGUVGCVKPIGQITCWFGCNVQ FGUGPXQNXKOGPVQ GNG CVKPIGVCODOQPXGNFGTGPFCper capita PGEGUUTKQRCTCSWGC GEQPQOKC UGFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\G#U HQTOCUFGOCPKHGUVCQ FC FGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQpodem ser variadas de acordo com QITCWFGFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQFQRCU2QTO C RGTEGRQOCKQT FG UWCOCPKHGUVCQ UGFPQ UGVQT KPFWUVTKCN GURGEKECOGPVGPCRTQFWQGPQGORTGIQ

OGFKFC SWG WORCU XCK UGFGUGPXQNXGPFQ C UWC TGPFC per capita XCK CWOGPVCPFQ%QO KUUQC GNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFC FC FGOCPFCRQT RTQFWVQU KPFWUVTKCNK\CFQU XCKUG TGFW\KPFQ G TGFW\ VCODO CFGOCPFCRQTVCKURTQFWVQU%QOCFGOCPFCTGFW\KFCCRTQFWQVCODOTGFW\G EQPUGSWGPVGOGPVG CGEQPQOKCFQRCUKPKEKCPCVWTCNOGPVGQRTQEGUUQFGFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQ'UVGEQPVGZVQPQTOCNOGPVGXGTKECFQPCUGEQPQOKCUFGUGPXQNXKFCU

2QT QWVTQ NCFQ TGEGPVGOGPVGQDUGTXCUGSWGQURCUGUGOFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQVCODOGUVQKPKEKCPFQQRTQEGUUQFGFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQ%QPVWFQPGUVGURCUGUQ KPEKQFCFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQQDUGTXCFQGOnvel menor de renda per capita do SWGQPXGNQDUGTXCFQPQKPEKQFGVCNRTQEGUUQPQURCUGUFGUGPXQNXKFQU&GUUC HQTOC CFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQnos pases em desenvolvimento FGPQOKPCFCRTGEQEG

Nos pases em desenvolvimento CFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQRQFGVGTGHGKVQUPGICVKXQU UQDTG C GEQPQOKC WOCXG\SWGGUVCPQGUVFGUGPXQNXKFCQUWEKGPVGRCTCGPHTGPVCTCUEQPUG

SWPEKCUFQRTQEGUUQFGFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQ6CNRTQEGUUQRTQXQECTKCCperda de competitividade das indsVTKCUPCEKQPCKU DGOEQOQ TGFWQFQGORTGIQKPFWUVTKCNCECTTGVCPFQFGUGORTGIQ TGFWQFCRTQFWQKPFWUVTKCNCECTTGVCPFQFEKVPQUCNFQFCUKPFUVTKCUGHC\GPFQEQOSWGCUOGPQTGUQWOGPQUEQORGVKVKXCUXQCHCNPEKC

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

'UVG VTCDCNJQ GUVFKXKFKFQ GOEKPEQ UGGU KPENWKPFQ GUVC KPVTQFWQ#5GQHC\WOCFKUEWUUQVGTKECGNKVGTTKCUQDTGQRTQEGUUQFGFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQ TGNCEKQPCPFQQEQOCOWFCPCPCTGNCQGPVTGC GNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFC FC FGOCPFCRQT RTQFWVQU KPFWUVTKCNK\CFQU G CGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTUGTXKQU0C5GQCRTGUGPVCFCCOGVQFQNQIKCWVKNK\CFCPGUVGVTCDCNJQ

DGOEQOQQUOQFGNQUGEQPQOVTKEQUGUVKOCFQURCTCXGTKECTCOWFCPCPC TGNCQ GPVTG CU GNCUVKEKFCFGUTGPFCFCFGOCPFCEKVCFCCPVGTKQTOGPVG1U TGUWNVCFQUFQUOQFGNQUGEQPQOVTKEQU G UWCU FKUEWUUGUUQ CRTGUGPVCFQUPC 5GQ DGOEQOQWOCCPNKUGUQDTGCGXQNWQFC GNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQU KPFWUVTKCKU GRQT UGTXKQU0C5GQ GPEQPVTCOUGCURTKPEKRCKUEQPENWUGUGZVTCFCUFQUTGUWNVCFQU

2Referencial tericoDesindustrializao e sua relao com a elasticidade-renda da de-manda

1 RTQEGUUQ FG FGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQ RQUUWK GO UWC FGHKPKQVTU CURGEVQU HWPFCOGPVCKU RCTCQ GPVGPFKOGPVQ FCOCPKHGUVCQFGUUGRTQEGUUQ GOWOCGEQPQOKC5Q DCUKECOGPVG VTU FGHKPKGUFKUVKPVCUOCUSWGGUVQTGNCEKQPCFCUGPVTGUKRQKUVQFCUGUVQFKTGVCOGPVGRCWVCFCUCQPXGNFGTGPFCper capita FQRCU

# RTKOGKTC FGHKPKQ G OCKUWUWCNGUVTGNCEKQPCFCCQGORTGIQ4QYVJQTPG4COCUYCO[2CNOCG$QPGNNKG2GUUCCTOCOSWGCFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQECTCEVGTK\CFCRGNC TGFWQFCOQFG QDTC PQ UGVQT KPFWUVTKCN EQORQUVGTKQTNKDGTCQFGUVCOQFGQDTCRCTC QWVTQU UGVQTGU FC GEQPQOKCprincipalmente para o setor de serXKQU1UCWVQTGUCETGUEGPVCOSWGPQEWTUQPQTOCNFQFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQGEQPOKEQFGWORCUCRCTVKEKRCQFQ GORTGIQ KPFWUVTKCN UGIWGWOCVGPFPEKCPQNKPGCTETGUEGPVGPQKPEKQGFGETGUEGPVGSWCPFQCGEQPQOKCEQOGCCCOCFWTGEGT

2CNOC CETGUEGPVC SWG CTGNCQ GPVTGQ GORTGIQ KPFWUVTKCNe o nvel de renda per capita SWGGUV CUUQEKCFQCQ KPEKQPCVWTCNFQRTQEGUUQ FG FGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQVGO ITCHKECOGPVG Q HQTOCVQ FG7 KPXGTVKFQ QW UGLC PCOGFKFCGOSWGCTGPFCper capitaCWOGPVCQ GORTGIQ KPFWUVTKCN CWOGPVC CVWOFGVGTOKPCFQPXGNFGTGPFCper

RDE - REVISTA DE DESENVOLVIMENTO ECONMICO 161Ano XIV N 26 Dezembro de 2012 Salvador, BA

capitaRQUVGTKQTOGPVGCGUVGPXGNQGORTGIQKPFWUVTKCNFGENKPC

# UGIWPFC FGHKPKQ VCODOWUWCNGUVTGNCEKQPCFCCQRTQFWVQQWRTQFWQ(GKL%CTXCNJQG#NOGKFC

R RQT GZGORNQ CTOCOSWGCFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQRQFG UGTEQPUVKVWFCRQTFQKUOQOGPVQUem um primeiro momento cai a participao da agropecuria no produto interno bruto (PIB) e aumenta a expresso da indstria. No segundo, o setor de servi-os que ganha espao e a indstria perde peso+UVQPCOGFKFCGOSWGWORCUUGFGUGPXQNXGCRCTVKEKRCQFGUWCKPFUVTKCXCKRGTFGPFQRGUQPQVQVCNPCEKQPCN

4QYVJQTPG4COCUYCO[CETGUEGPVCOSWG C TGNCQ GPVTG CRTQFWQKPFWUVTKCNGQ2+$per capita CRTGUGPVCQHQTOCVQITEQFG7KPXGTVKFQ EQOQPC TGNCQ GPVTGQGORTGIQKPFWUVTKCNGQ2+$per capita%QPVWFQCTGNCQFQ2+$per capita EQOCRTQFWQKPFWUVTKCNITCECOGPVGOCKUUWCXGFQSWGCTGNCQFCSWGNGEQOQGORTGIQ KPFWUVTKCN$QPGNNK G 2GUUC EQORNGOGPVCOCTOCPFQSWGCNKVGTCVWTCUQDTGOWFCPC GUVTWVWTCN CHKTOCSWGOGFKFCSWGCTGPFCper capita CWOGPVCCRCTVKEKRCQFCRTQFWQKPFWUVTKCNVCODOCWOGPVCCVFGterminado nvel de renda per capitaCRCTVKTFGUUGPXGN CRCTVKEKRCQKPFWUVTKCNFGENKPC

#VGTEGKTCFGPKQRQWEQWUWCNGHQEQFGUVGVTCDCNJQGUVTGNCEKQPCFC GNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFC0CUUKHCTOCSWGCFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQ XGTKECFCSWCPFQJWOCTGFWQFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUKPFWUVTKCNK\CFQUCQNQPIQFQVGORQGPSWCPVQJ WO CWOGPVQ FC GNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTUGTXKQUPQOGUOQRGTQFQFGVGORQ6CNUKVWCQQDUGTXCFCUGIWPFQQCWVQTSWCPFQQRCUCVKPIGQPXGNFGTGPFCper capitaSWGKPKEKCQRTQEGUUQFGFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQ'UVGRQTUWCXG\RQFGUGTEQPTOCFQUGGOOFKCCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUKPFWUVTKCNK\CFQUHQTOGPQTFQSWGGUUCGNCUVKEKFCFGRQTUGTXKQU

1TGKTQ G (GKL CRQPVCOSWGCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCWOFQURTKPEKRCKU HCVQTGUSWGOQVKXCOWOC GEQPQOKC FGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQ1UCWVQTGUGZRNKECOSWGC NKVGTCVWTCCTOCSWGQRTKPEKRCN HCVQT KPVGTPQ GEQPQOKCFGWORCUSWGQEQPFW\CQRTQEGUUQPCVWTCNFGFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQFK\TGURGKVQOWFCPCPCTGNCQGPVTGCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTUGTXKQU G C GNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQU KPFWUVTKCNK\CFQUQDUGTXCPFQUGWOCWOGPVQPC GNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTUGTXKQUGPSWCPVQCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQT RTQFWVQUKPFWUVTKCNK\CFQU TGFW\ VQTPCPFQCRTKOGKTCOCKQTFQSWG CNVKOC)GTCNOGPVG GUVG HCVQ CEQPVGEGPCUGEQPQOKCU EWLQ FGUGPXQNXKOGPVQLUGGPEQPVTCCXCPCFQKUVQPQURCUGUFGPQOKPCFQUFGUGPXQNXKFQU

'UUCOWFCPCPC TGNCQ GPVTGCU GNCUVKEKFCFGUTGPFC UWRTCEKVCFCUCFXO GPVTG QWVTQUOQVKXQU FCUOWFCPCUPQURCFTGUFGEQOTEKQRTQRQTEKQPCFQURGNC EQPEQTTPEKCEQOQURTQFWVQU KORQTVCFQU GFCEQPLWPVWTCGEQPOKECKPVGTPCEKQPCNSWGRQFGOHCXQTGEGTCRTQFWQFGRTQFWVQUFG CNVQXCNQT CITGICFQ GKPVGPUKXQUGOVGEPQNQIKCFKURGPUCPFQCUUKODQCRCTVGFCOQFGQDTCKPFWUVTKCN2#./#$10'..+2'55#

4QYVJQTPG4COCUYCO[RQTUWCXG\GZRNKECOSWGGUUCOWFCPCCEQPVGEGFGXKFQGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUKPFWUVTKCNK\CFQU UGTCNVCPQURCUGUGOFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQ G DCKZC PQURCUGU FGUGPXQNXKFQU GZRNKECPFQRQTSWGCRTQFWQGQGORTGIQKPFWUVTKCNRTKOGKTCOGPVGCWOGPVCOGFGRQKUTGFW\GO#GZRNKECQRCTCGUVC TGFWQ UGIWPFQQU CWVQTGUSWGCRTQFWVKXKFCFGFQ VTCDCNJQcresce mais rapidamente na indstria FQSWGPCGEQPQOKCEQOQWOVQFQGRQTVCPVQQRTGQTGNCVKXQFQURTQFWVQUKPFWUVTKCNK\CFQUUGTGFW\EQOQFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQFCGEQPQOKC'UVGRTGQTGFW\KFQGUVKOWNCCUWDUVKVWKQFQURTQFWVQU KPFWUVTKCNK\CFQURQTQWVTQUDGPURTKPEKRCNOGPVGRQr

UGTXKQUEWLQEWUVQGUVCWOGPVCPFQdevido ao crescimento relativamente NGPVQFCRTQFWVKXKFCFGPGUVGUGVQT

3. Metodologia#OGVQFQNQIKC FGUVG VTCDCNJQ

GUVDCUGCFCGOWOCCPNKUGFCOWFCPCPCTGNCQGPVTGCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQT RTQFWVQUKPFWUVTKCNK\CFQU G C GNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFC FC FGOCPFC RQT UGTXKQUDGOEQOQGOOQFGNQUGEQPQOVTKEQUFGUTKGUVGORQTCKURCTCXGTKECTGORKTKECOGPVGUGJQWXGOWFCPCUUKIPKECVKXCUGOVCNTGNCQCRQPVQFGUGCTOCTCGZKUVPEKCFGFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQPQ$TCUKN

#CPNKUGRTQRGWOCCXCNKCQFC GNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFC FC FGOCPFCRQT RTQFWVQU KPFWUVTKCNK\CFQUVQOCPFQ EQOQ TGHGTPEKC Q XCNQTCITGICFQFCKPFUVTKC2TKOGKTCOGPVGCCPNKUGHQKHGKVCRCTCCKPFUVTKCEQOQWO VQFQ G RQUVGTKQTOGPVGforam analisadas as indstrias de EQPUVTWQEKXKNFGGNGVTKEKFCFGIUGIWCGZVTCVKXCOKPGTCNGFGVTCPUHQTOCQ6CNFKXKUQFCUKPFUVTKCUHQKDCUGCFCPCFKURQUKQFQUFCFQUFQ +PUVKVWVQFG2GUSWKUC#RNKECFC&CFQU+2'##

Modelos economtricos1OQFGNQWVKNK\CFQRCTCCXGTK

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


pib_indt = G

0 + G

1pib_nac

t + u

t

pib_servt = J

0 + J

1pib_nac

t + u

t

'OSWG

G0 e J

0 G UQQU KPVGTEGRVQUFCU TG

ITGUUGUG1 e J

1UQQUEQGEKGPVGUFCXCTKXGN

pib_nact 2+$ PCEKQPCN VCN SWG t =

0GUVGECUQG1 e J

1

TGRTGUGPVCOCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUKPFWUVTKCNK\CFQUGRQTUGTXKQUTGURGEVKXCOGPVGpib_ind

t Q2+$KPFWUVTKCN

pib_nactQ2+$PCEKQPCN

pib_servt2+$FQUGVQTFGUGTXKQUG

utQVGTOQFGGTTQFCTGITGUUQ

5G G1 e J

1 forem negativos e

GUVCVKUVKECOGPVGUKIPKECVKXQUECFCWOFGNGU C GNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQU KPFWUVTKCNK\CFQUGRQTUGTXKQUFGOQPUVTCTKCOSWGQRTQFWVQKPFWUVTKCNGQRTQFWVQFQUGVQTFGUGTXKQUUQGOOFKCKPHGTKQTGU'UGG

1J

1 < 1, estes pro

FWVQUUQVKFQUEQOQPQTOCKUGDGPUPGEGUUTKQU'RCTCQURTQFWVQUUQVKFQU EQOQFG NWZQQW UWRTWQU2CTCSWGJCLCFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQRTGEKUQSWGG

1J

1

2CTCOGNJQTCPCNKUCTCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUKPFWUVTKCNK\CFQU Q/QFGNQ# HQKUWDFKXKFKFQ RCTC CNIWPU VKRQU FGKPFUVTKCU#KPVGTRTGVCQFGECFCEQGEKGPVGUKOKNCTFGUETKVCRCTCQ/QFGNQ#=GSWCQ?5GIWGOos modelos:

Modelo A.1 Anlise da elasticida-de-renda da demanda por produtos da indstria de construo civil:

pib_constciv

t = G

0 + G

1pib_nac

t + u

t

'OSWGpib_constcivt Q2+$FC

KPFUVTKCFGEQPUVTWQEKXKNQG0 KPVGTEGRVQGG

1 representa a elastici

FCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUFCKPFUVTKCFGEQPUVTWQEKXKN

Modelo A.2 Anlise da elastici-dade-renda da demanda por produtos

da indstria de eletricidade, gs e gua:

pib_eletrict = G

0 + G

1pib_nac

t + u

t

'OSWG pib_eletrict Q 2+$ FC

KPFUVTKCFGGNGVTKEKFCFGIUGIWC o G

0 KPVGTEGRVQ GG

1 representa a

GNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUFCKPFUVTKCFGGNGVTKEKFCFGIUGIWC

Modelo A.3 Anlise da elasticida-de-renda da demanda por produtos da indstria extrativa mineral3:

pib_extmint = G

0 + G

1pib_nac

t + u

t

'OSWGpib_extmintQ2+$FCKP

FUVTKCGZVTCVKXCOKPGTCNG0 o inter

EGRVQGG1 representa a elasticidade

TGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUFCKPFUVTKCGZVTCVKXCOKPGTCN

Modelo A.4 Anlise da elasticida-de-renda da demanda por produtos da indstria de transformao4: pib_transf

t = G

0 + G

1pib_nac

t + u

t

'O SWG pib_transft Q 2+$ FC

KPFUVTKCFG VTCPUHQTOCQ G0

o KPVGTEGRVQGG

1 representa a elastici

FCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUFCKPFUVTKCFGVTCPUHQTOCQ

KORQTVCPVGTGUUCNVCTSWGRCTCSWG UGLCFGVGEVCFC CFGUKPFWUVTKC

NK\CQRGNC GNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQT RTQFWVQU KPFWUVTKCNK\CFQU GO VQFCU CU TGITGUUGU QEQGEKGPVGG

1FGXGUGTOGPQTSWGQ

EQGEKGPVG J1 FQ UGVQTFG UGTXKQU

=GSWCQ ? G GUVCVKUVKECOGPVGUKIPKECVKXQ

Dados, fontes e periodicidade#UXCTKXGKUWVKNK\CFCUPQUOQFG

NQUGEQPQOVTKEQUUQQ2+$PCEKQPCNQ2+$KPFWUVTKCNQ2+$FCKPFUVTKCFGEQPUVTWQEKXKNQ2+$FCKPFUVTKCFGGNGVTKEKFCFGIUGIWCQ2+$FCKPFUVTKCGZVTCVKXCOKPGTCNQ2+$FCKPFUVTKCFG VTCPUHQTOCQGQ2+$FQ UGVQT FG UGTXKQU RTQXGPKGPVGUFC7PKVGF0CVKQPU5VCVKUVKEU&KXKUKQP

705&UGPFQEQPUKFGTCFQQXCNQTGOTGCKUCRTGQUEQPUVCPVGUFG2CTCQENEWNQFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCda demanda foram considerados os 2+$UEKVCFQUCPVGTKQTOGPVGEQPUKFGTCPFQUGQXCNQTCITGICFQFQ2+$GOTGCKUCRTGQUEQTTGPVGURTQXGPKGPVGUFQ+2'##

A periodicidade das variveis FQUOQFGNQUGEQPQOVTKEQUCPWCNe corresponde aos anos compreendiFQUGPVTGC2CTCCCPNKUGFCGXQNWQFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCdemanda o perodo compreende aos CPQUFGCVCODOCPWCKU'UVGURGTQFQUKPENWGOQUCPQUCPVGTKQTGUFECFCRGTFKFCDGOEQOQVCN FECFC C CDGTVWTC EQOGTEKCNOWFCPCFCOQGFCPCEKQPCNETKCQ

3 As indstrias que fazem parte da indstria extrativa mineral so: petrleo e gs natural; minrio de ferro; e outras da indstria extrativa (ANURIO ESTATSTICO, 2011).

4 As indstrias que fazem parte da indstria de transformao so: alimentos e bebidas; produtos do fumo; txteis; artigos do vesturio e acessrios; arte-fatos de couro e calados; produtos de madeira, exclusive mveis; celulose H SURGXWRV GH SDSHO MRUQDLV UHYLVWDV GLVFRV UHQR GH SHWUyOHR H FRTXHlcool; produtos qumicos; fabricao de resina e elastmeros; produtos farmacuticos; defensivos agrcolas; perfumaria, higiene e limpeza; tintas, vernizes, esmaltes e lacas; produtos e preparados qumicos diversos; artigos de borracha e plstico; cimento; outros produtos de minerais no-metlicos; fabricao de ao e derivados; metalurgia de metais no-ferrosos; produtos de metal, exclusive manuteno e reparos; eletrodomsticos; mquinas para escritrio e equipamentos de informtica; mquinas, aparelhos e materiais eltricos; material eletrnico e equipamentos de comunicaes; aparelhos e instrumentos mdico-hospitalares, medida e ptico; automveis, camionetas e utilitrios; caminhes e nibus; peas e acessrios para veculos automotores; outros equipamentos de transporte; e mveis e produtos das indstrias diversas (ANURIO ESTATSTICO, 2011).

RDE - REVISTA DE DESENVOLVIMENTO ECONMICO 163Ano XIV N 26 Dezembro de 2012 Salvador, BA

FQ/'4%157.TGHQTOCECODKCNGGUVCDKNK\CQFCGEQPQOKCOWPFKCN'UVGU HCVQU UQ KORQTVCPVGURCTC CCPNKUG FC GXQNWQ FC RTQFWQKPFWUVTKCNPCEKQPCNCOFGCPCNKUCTCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUKPFWUVTKCKU

1CPQFGHQKGUEQNJKFQEQOQlimite inferior da anlise devido aos ITCPFGU KPXGUVKOGPVQU KPFWUVTKCKUocorridos nos anos anteriores e pela indstria ter crescido grandemente GOVCNFECFC#NOFKUUQCUCNVCUVCZCUFGKPCQGCFGUQTICPK\CQFC GEQPQOKC DTCUKNGKTC PQU CPQURQUVGTKQTGURGTOKVGOWOCCPNKUGFGEQOQCGEQPQOKCDTCUKNGKTCRTQEGFGFWTCPVGQRGTQFQFGETKUGCHGVCPFQCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFC#CPNKUGFGEQOQCGEQPQOKCTGCIKWCestes fatos importante para o entenFKOGPVQFCOWFCPCPCTGNCQGPVTGCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUKPFWUVTKCNK\CFQUGRQTUGTXKQU1CPQFGHQKGUEQNJKFQEQOQNKOKVGUWRGTKQTRQTTGRTGUGPVCTWORGTQFQOCKUTGEGPVG

6QFCUCUXCTKXGKUHQTCONQICTKVOK\CFCURQKUKFGPVKECOGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCKPVGTGUUCPVGTGUUCNVCTSWGQUFCFQURCTCQ2+$FCUKPFUVTKCUUQOGPVGGUVQFKURQPXGKUFGHQTOCCITGICFCRTKPEKRCNOGPVGRCTCC KPFUVTKCFG VTCPUHQTOCQ+UVQKORQUUKDKNKVQWCCPNKUGFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRCTCVQFQUos tipos de indstrias separadamenVG 2QT KUVQ CRGPCU C GNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCFCU KPFUVTKCUFGEQPUVTWQEKXKNFGGNGVTKEKFCFGIU G IWC GZVTCVKXCOKPGTCN GFGVTCPUHQTOCQHQKCPCNKUCFC

Processo de estimaoOs modelos economtricos foram

GUVKOCFQURGNQ/VQFQFG/PKOQU3WCFTCFQU 1TFKPTKQU /316QFQUQUVGUVGUGUVCVUVKEQUPGEGUUTKQUHQTCOTGCNK\CFQURCTCXGTKECTRQUUXGKURTQDNGOCU ECTCEVGTUVKEQUFGUTKGUVGORQTCKUVCKUEQOQCPQGUVCEKQPCTKGFCFGFCUUTKGUCEQKPVGITCQGPVTGGNCUGCCWVQEQTTGNCQPQU TGUFWQU'UUGURTQDNGOCURQdem acarretar estimadores viesados

QWKPXCNKFCTCUKPHGTPEKCUGUVCVUVKECURTQXGPKGPVGUFCGUVKOCQ

A estacionariedade das sries WOC ECTCEVGTUVKEC PGEGUUTKCRCTCSWGCUKPHGTPEKCUGUVCVUVKECUUGLCOXNKFCU7OCUTKGGUVCEKQPTKCRQUUWKOFKCGXCTKPEKCEQPUVCPVGUCQNQPIQFG VGORQ G CWVQEQXCTKPEKCKPFGRGPFGPVGFQ VGORQ '0&'45$7'01QWUGLC

E ([t) = E [

ts) = P (

E [([t P)2] = E[([

ts P)2 = V[

E [([t P) ([

ts P) = E[([

tJ P) ([

tJs P)]

5GPFQSWG[t WOCFCFCUTKGFG

tempot =/ s =/ j; PV[e [s e representam COFKCCXCTKPEKCGCEQXCTKPEKCFGTGURGEVKXCOGPVG

7OC UTKG PQ GUVCEKQPTKC CSWGNCSWGRQUUWKTCK\WPKVTKCGVGOCUGIWKPVGGURGEKECQEQPUKFGTCPFQCRGPCUWOCXCTKXGN '0&'45

[t = U[

t - 1 + Ht

GOSWG[t - 1

valor defasado de [t

GOWORGTQFQHtWORTQEGUUQFGTWFQDTCPEQG U

5WDVTCKPFQ[t - 1FGCODQUQUNCFQU

TGCTTCPLCPFQQUVGTOQUGHC\GPFQU 1 = GQDVOUG

'[t = G[

t - 1 + Ht

&GUUC HQTOC CJKRVGUGFGPWNKFCFGFQU VGUVGUFG TCK\WPKVTKC SWGG 5GGPVQU= 1QWUGLCCUTKGRQUUWKTCK\WPKVTKCQSWGSWGTFK\GTSWGCUTKG[

tPQGUVCEKQPTKC

2CTCSWGCUTKGUGLCGUVCEKQPTKCGVGOSWGUGTPGICVKXQRCTCSWGUUGLCOGPQTSWGCWPKFCFG#TGLGKQFCJKRVGUGFGPWNKFCFGKORNKECGUVCEKQPCTKGFCFGFCUTKG

1UVGUVGUFGTCK\WPKVTKCRTQEWTCOVGUVCTCJKRVGUGFGPWNKFCFGFGSWGCUUTKGUUQPQGUVCEKQPTKCU0GUVGVTCDCNJQTGCNK\QWUGQVGUVGFG&KEMG[(WNNGT#WOGPVCFQ#&(SWGconsidera as diversas caractersticas

FGWOCUTKGVGORQTCNGUWRGSWGQUGTTQUUQEQTTGNCEKQPCFQU1VGUVGconsiste em estimar o modelo de reITGUUQCETGUEGPVCPFQCUFGHCUCIGPUFC XCTKXGN FGRGPFGPVG $7'01

'OSWG H #JKRVGUGFGPWNKFCFGFQ#&(

CFGSWGCUTKGPQGUVCEKQPTKCQWUGLCG 0GUVGECUQ 2CTCSWGUGTGLGKVGCJKRVGUGFGPWNKFCFGPGEGUUTKQSWG RCTCSWGG1POGTQFGFGHCUCIGPUKPENWFCUPCTGITGUUQUGTVCPVQSWCPVQHQTPGEGUUTKQRCTCGNKOKPCTCCWVQEQTTGNCQPQUTGUFWQU

# CWVQEQTTGNCQ PQU TGUFWQUpode viesar as estimativas provePKGPVGUFCGUVKOCQRQTKUUQHC\UGPGEGUUTKC UWC TGOQQ2CTCXGTKECTCGZKUVPEKCFGCWVQEQTTGNCQPQU TGUFWQU WVKNK\CUG WO VGUVGFGEQTTGNCQUGTKCN0GUVGVTCDCNJQWVKNK\QWUGQVGUVGFG&WTDKP9CVUQPSWGUGDCUGKCPCTC\QGPVTGCUQOCFCFKHGTGPCCQSWCFTCFQFQUGTTQUGUVKOCFQUGCUQOCFQSWCFTCFQFQUGTTQUGUVKOCFQU5GIWGCGUVCVUVKECFQVGUVG911.&4+&)'

&GUOGODTCPFQ C UQOCVTKC GTGCTTCPLCPFQQUVGTOQUVGOUG 1WFGHQTOCOCKUUKORNGUHC\GPFQ

QDVOUG 5GPFQ< dw < 4 e 4 < U^ < 12CTC

dw = 2PQJEQTTGNCQUGTKCNPQUTGUFWQU.QIQ CJKRVGUGFGPWNK

5 Se G > 0, ento U!RTXHVLJQLFDTXHDVpULHpH[SORVLYD3RULVVRHVWDhiptese no considerada nos testes de raiz unitria.

RDE - REVISTA DE DESENVOLVIMENTO ECONMICO164 Ano XIV N 26 Dezembro de 2012 Salvador, BA

FCFGFQVGUVGFG&WTDKP9CVUQPCFGSWGPQGZKUVGEQTTGNCQUGTKCNQWUGLCU#TGLGKQFCJKRVGUGPWNCKORNKECEQTTGNCQUGTKCN

O teste dwVGOCNIWPUKPVGTXCNQUFGKPEQPENWUQEWLQUXCNQTGUFGPVTQFGUUGU KPVGTXCNQU PQ RGTOKVGOEQPENWKTUGJQWPQCWVQEQTTGNCQPQU TGUFWQU6CKU KPVGTXCNQU GUVQFKURQUVQUPCVCDGNCGUVCVUVKECdw de &WTDKP9CVUQPGUQFGVGTOKPCFQUCVTCXUFQVCOCPJQFCCOQUVTCGFQPOGTQFGXCTKXGKUGZRNKECVKXCU

#FKEKQPCNOGPVGQVGUVGFG&WTDKP9CVUQPCRTGUGPVCCNIWOCURTGOKUUCU SWGFGXGO UGT QDUGTXCFCUCPVGUFCUWCCRNKECQUQGNCUQOQFGNQFGTGITGUUQRQUUWKKPVGTEGRVQCUXCTKXGKUKPFGRGPFGPVGUUQPQGUVQEUVKECUQUGTTQUUQIGTCFQURQTRTQEGUUQCWVQTTGITGUUKXQFGQTFGOQWUGLC#4GUQPQTOCNOGPVG FKUVTKDWFQU CUdefasagens da varivel dependente PQGUVQKPENWFCUPQOQFGNQEQOQXCTKXGKUKPFGRGPFGPVGUGPQJQDUGTXCGUHCNVCPVGU911.&4+&)'

7OCFCUECWUCUFCCWVQEQTTGNCQCOGURGEKECQFQOQFGNQ0GUVGECUQRCTCCEQTTGQFCEQTTGNCQ UGTKCNFGXGUG TGOQFGNCT QOQFGNQ1WVTCU ECWUCURQFGO UGTEQTTKIKFCU RGNQ WUQ FG/PKOQU3WCFTCFQU)GPGTCNK\CFQU /3)OCUPQPQECUQFGUTKGUVGORQTCKU0QECUQFGCEQTTGNCQUGTKCNUGTECWUCFCRGNCPQ GUVCEKQPCTKGFCFGFCUTKGFGXGUGHC\GTQURTQEGFKOGPVQUPGEGUUTKQURCTCGUVCEKQPCTK\NC

3WCPFQ WOC UTKG VGORQTCN GUVCEKQPTKCGORTKOGKTCFKHGTGPCFK\UGSWGGNCKPVGITCFC5GCUTKGfor diferenciada dXG\GUGPVQGNCintegrada de ordem d QW +d0QECUQGOSWGd=0VGOUGSWGCUTKGGUVCEKQPTKC'OWOCTGITGUUQGOSWGFWCUUTKGUUQ+dGQUGTTQUFGUUCTGITGUUQUQ+GPVQCUUTKGUUQEQKPVGITCFCUGCTGITGUUQRQFGser estimada sem diferenciar as sries +d.6-'21*.

1 VGUVG FG EQKPVGITCQOCKUWUCFQQVGUVGFG'PING)TCPIGTSWGUGDCUGKCPQUTGUFWQUFCTGITGUUQ

2TKOGKTCOGPVG GUVKOCUGQOQFGNQFG TGITGUUQFCGSWCQ CDCKZQGURGEKECFC$7'01

2QUVGTKQTOGPVGWVKNK\CUGQVGUVG#&(FGTCK\WPKVTKCPQUTGUFWQU5GGUVGUHQTGOGUVCEKQPTKQUGPVQCUUTKGUUQEQKPVGITCFCU0GUVGECUQCTGITGUUQRQFGUGTGUVKOCFCPQTOCNOGPVGEQOQPCGSWCQ%CUQEQPVTTKQFGXGOUGUGIWKTQURTQEGFKOGPVQURCTCGUVCEKQPCTK\CTCUUTKGU

4GUWNVCFQUGFKUEWUUQEvoluo da elasticidade-renda da demanda por produtos industriali-zados e por servios

#GNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQU KPFWUVTKCNK\CFQU GOOFKCOGPQTFQSWGCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTUGTXKQUFGUFGCFECFCFG1)TEQOQUVTCCGXQNWQFGUUCGNCUVKEKFCFGRQTRTQFWVQUKPFWUVTKCNK\CFQUGRQTUGTXKQUFGC

)TEQ 'XQNWQFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTprodutos industriais e por servios de 1971 a 2011

Fonte: Dados do IPEADATA (2011).

2GTEGDGUGSWGCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUKPFWUVTKCNK\CFQUGTCGOOFKCOCKQTFQSWGCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTUGTXKQUCVOGCFQUFCFECFCFG#RCTVKTFCCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTUGTXKQURCUUQWCUGTOCKQTGOOFKCFQSWGCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQU KPFWUVTKCNK\CFQU ECTCEVGTK\CPFQWOCOWFCPCPCTGNCQGPVTGCUGNCUVKEKFCFGUTGPFC

0QRGTQFQFGCCOFKCFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCHQKFGRCTCQURTQFWVQUKPFWUVTKCNK\CFQUGRCTCQUUGTXKQU1WUGLCCPCNKUCPFQUGCGXQNWQPQRGTQFQRQFGUGCTOCTSWGCGEQPQOKCDTCUKNGKTCLCRTGUGPVCWOCGUVTWVWTCFGFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQRTQREKCFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQFGUFGCFECFCFG

3WCPFQQDUGTXCFCCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUFCKPFUVTKCFG EQPUVTWQ EKXKNFCFGGNGVTKEKFCFGIU G IWCFCGZVTCVKXCOKPGTCNGFCFGVTCPUHQTOCQQDUGTXCUGSWGGOGOOFKCVCKUKPFUVTKCUPQCRTGUGPVCXCOWOCGUVTWVWTCFGFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQRTQREKCFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQEQOGZEGQFCKPFUVTKCFGVTCPUHQTOCQ1)TEQOQUVTCCGXQNWQFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUFCKPFUVTKCFGEQPUVTWQEKXKNFGC


)TEQ 'XQNWQFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTprodutos da indstria de construo civil de 1971 a 2011


ODUGTXCUGSWGCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUFCKPFUVTKCFGEQPUVTWQEKXKNGOOFKCCRTGUGPVQWUGCEKOCFCWPKFCFGPCOCKQTKCFQUCPQUFGPVTQFQRGTQFQCPCNKUCFQ'OOFKCVCNGNCUVKEKFCFGHQKFGQSWGOQUVTCSWGCKPFUVTKCFGEQPUVTWQEKXKNPQCRTGUGPVQWPQRGTQFQCPCNKUCFQGUVTWVWTCFGFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQRTQREKCFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQWOCXG\SWGCOFKCFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTUGTXKQUHQKFG%CDGTGUUCNVCTSWGRCTCSWGHQUUGQDUGTXCFCWOCGUVTWVWTCFGFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQRTQREKC FGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUFCKPFUVTKCFGEQPUVTWQEKXKNFGXGTKCUGTOGPQTFQSWGGUUCGNCUVKEKFCFGRQTUGTXKQU

#GXQNWQFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUFCKPFUVTKCFGGNGVTKEKFCFGIUGIWCVCODOOQUVTQWSWGVCN KPFUVTKCPQGUVUGFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CPFQEQOQOQUVTCQ)TEQ

)TEQ 'XQNWQFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTprodutos da indstria de eletricidade, gs e gua de 1971 a 2011


1DUGTXCUGSWGGOOFKCCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUFCKPFUVTKCFGGNGVTKEKFCFGIUGIWCHQKFG+UVQKORNKEC

FK\GTSWGVCNKPFUVTKCVCODOPQCRTGUGPVQW PQRGTQFQ CPCNKUCFQGUVTWVWTCFGFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQRTQREKC FGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQ 8CNGNGODTCTSWGGOOFKCCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTUGTXKQUHQKFG

7ORQPVQKPVGTGUUCPVGSWGFGXGUGT FGUVCECFQ SWG GO CGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFC RQT RTQFWVQUFGUUC KPFUVTKC HQK FG 8CNQTOWKVQ CNVQSWG ECTCEVGTK\QW VCNRTQFWVQEQOQFGNWZQQWUWRTWQFGPVTQFQRGTQFQ'UUGXCNQTFGXGUGT QDUGTXCFQ EQOCVGPQRQKU considerado pela anlise econmica EQOQWOoutlierKUVQWOXCNQTHQTCFQURCFTGU

#CPNKUGFCGXQNWQFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUFCKPFUVTKCGZVTCVKXCOKPGTCNRQT UWC XG\ CRTGUGPVC TGUWNVCFQUUGOGNJCPVGU CQU QDUGTXCFQU PCUKPFUVTKCUFG EQPUVTWQ EKXKN GFGGNGVTKEKFCFGIUGIWC'UUCGXQNWQOQUVTCFCPQ)TEQ

Um ponto interessante que

deve ser destacado que em 1998, a elasticidade-renda por produtos dessa

indstria foi de 4,8174. Valor muito

alto que caracterizou tal produto como de

OX[RRXVXSpUXRdentro do perodo.

Esse valor deve ser observado com

ateno, pois considerado pela

anlise...

RDE - REVISTA DE DESENVOLVIMENTO ECONMICO166 Ano XIV N 26 Dezembro de 2012 Salvador, BA

)TEQ 'XQNWQFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTprodutos da indstria extrativa mineral de 1971 a 2011.


1DUGTXCUGSWGCVCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUFCKPFUVTKCGZVTCVKXCOKPGTCNCRTGUGPVCXCUGOCKUGUVXGNFQSWGVCNGNCUVKEKFCFGRCTCQUCPQURQUVGTKQTGU'OOFKCGUUCGNCUVKEKFCFGRCTCQURTQFWVQUFGUUCKPFUVTKCHQKQSWGUKIPKECSWGVCNKPFUVTKCPQCRTGUGPVQWGUVTWVWTCFGFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQRTQREKC FGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQ4GUUCNVCUGSWGCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTUGTXKQUHQK

KPVGTGUUCPVGFGUVCECTSWGGOCNIWPUCPQUCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUFCKPFUVTKCGZVTCVKXCOKPGTCNEJGIQWRGTVQFGVCPVQPGICVKXQSWCPVQRQUKVKXQQWWNVTCRCUUQWVCNXCNQTEQOQGOSWGEJGIQWC'UVGHCVQFGXGUGTKPXGUVKICFQEQOCVGPQRQKUPQEQOWOVCNGNCUVKEKFCFGXCTKCTVQITCPFGOGPVG

2QTQWVTQNCFQCGXQNWQFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUFCKPFUVTKCFGVTCPUHQTOCQOQUVTCTGUWNVCFQFKHGTGPVGFQSWGHQKEQPJGEKFQCVQOQOGPVQRGNQUFGOCKU VKRQUFG KPFUVTKCU1)TEQOQUVTCGUUCGXQNWQ

)TEQ 'XQNWQFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTprodutos da indstria de transformao de 1971 a 2011


2GTEGDGUGSWGCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUFCKPFUVTKCFGVTCPUHQTOCQGOOFKCHQKFGKUVQVCNKPFUVTKCOQUVTQWVGTGUVTWVWTCFGFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQRTQREKCFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQPQRGTQFQ

CPCNKUCFQ%CDGTGUUCNVCTSWGVCNVKRQde indstria agrega a maioria das KPFUVTKCURQTKUUQVCNTGUWNVCFQLUGTKCGURGTCFQWOCXG\SWGCCPNKUGFCGXQNWQFGUUCGNCUVKEKFCFGRCTCCKPFUVTKCEQOQWOVQFQOQUVTQWSWGCKPFUVTKCRQUUWKGUVTWVWTCFGFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQRTQREKC FGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQ

Anlise dos resultados econo-mtricos

#PVGU FG UGTGO GUVKOCFQU QUOQFGNQUHQTCOUWDOGVKFQUCQUVGUVGUGUVCVUVKEQUCRTGUGPVCFQUPCUWDUGQ#RGPCUCXCTKXGNpib_extmin foi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

#UGIWKTUQCRTGUGPVCFCUCUVCDGNCU6CDGNCC6CDGNCEQOQUTGUWNVCFQUFQUOQFGNQU GUVKOCFQU'OECFCVCDGNCQXCNQTFCXCTKXGNpib_nac foi destacado por representar CGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFC#NVKOCVCDGNC6CDGNCOQUVTCQUTGUWNVCFQUCITGICFQUGCEQPENWUQFGECFCWOCFCUGNCUVKEKFCFGU%CDGTGUUCNVCTSWGCCPNKUGFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFC CVTCXUFQUOQFGNQU GEQPQOVTKEQUOQUVTQWTGUWNVCFQUFKHGTGPVGUFQSWGHQTCOQDUGTXCFQUPCCPNKUGFC GXQNWQFGUUC GNCUVKEKFCFG RTKPEKRCNOGPVGRCTCCKPFUVTKCFGEQPUVTWQEKXKN

#6CDGNCOQUVTCQUTGUWNVCFQUFQ/QFGNQ##PNKUGFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUKPFWUVTKCNK\CFQU


Tabela 01 Resultado do Modelo A

Varivel %QGEKGPVG Erro padro Estatstica t P-valorconstante RKDAPCE WCA ( 2TQD (4w CLWUVCFQ

dw

#&( RKDAPCE

2XCNQT=#&(RKDAPCE?

#&(RKDAKPF

2XCNQT=#&(RKDAKPF?

Fonte: Os autores.

1XCNQTFCGUVCVUVKEC(GUWCUKIPKEPEKCOQUVTCOSWGGOEQPLWPVQQUEQGEKGPVGUFCUXCTKXGKUFQ/QFGNQ#UQGUVCVKUVKECOGPVGFKHGTGPVGUFG\GTQ14wCLWUVCFQOQUVTCSWGQOQFGNQHQKDGOCLWUVCFQ1XCNQTFQVGUVG&WTDKP9CVUQPdwOQUVTCSWGQOQFGNQPQRQUUWKCWVQEQTTGNCQPQU TGUFWQU1 VGUVGFG&KEMG[(WNNGT#WOGPVCFQ #&(OQUVTCSWGCUUTKGUFCUXCTKXGKUpib_nac e pib_indUQGUVCEKQPTKCUKUVQPQRQUUWGOTCK\WPKVTKC

1UTGUWNVCFQUOQUVTCOSWGCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUKPFWUVTKCNK\CFQUGUVCVKUVKECOGPVGUKIPKECVKXCGRQUKVKXCEQOXCNQTPQ KPVGTXCNQ =?OQUVTCPFQSWGQURTQFWVQU KPFWUVTKCKU UQGOOFKCDGPUPQTOCKUGPGEGUUTKQU1DUGTXCUGSWGWOCWOGPVQFGPCTGPFCPCEKQPCNCECTTGVCCWOGPVQFGGOOFKCPCTGPFCKPFWUVTKCN

6CNXCNQTTGHWVCCGZRNKECQFG4QYVJQTPG4COCUYCO[FGSWGCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUKPFWUVTKCNK\CFQUCNVCPQURCUGUGOFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQGDCKZCPQURCUGUFGUGPXQNXKFQU1$TCUKNGODQTCGOGTIGPVGEQPUKFGTCFQWORCUGOFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQGCRTGUGPVQWGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUKPFWUVTKCNK\CFQUDCKZC.QIQRGTEGDGUGC KORQTVPEKCFGUGCPCNKUCTCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCPQ$TCUKNEQOQHQTOCFGGPVGPFGTQRTQEGUUQFGFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQSWGUGOQUVTCRTGUGPVGGOVCNGEQPQOKC

#6CDGNCOQUVTCQUTGUWNVCFQURCTCQ/QFGNQ##PNKUGFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUFCKPFUVTKCFGEQPUVTWQEKXKN

Tabela 02 Resultado do Modelo A.1

Varivel %QGEKGPVG Erro padro Estatstica t P-valorconstante RKDAPCE WCA ( 2TQD (4wCLWUVCFQ dw#&( RKDAPCE

2XCNQT=#&(RKDAPCE?

#&(RKDAEQPUVEKX

2XCNQT=#&(RKDAEQPUVEKX?

Fonte: Os autores.

1XCNQTFCGUVCVUVKEC(GUWCUKIPKEPEKCOQUVTCOSWGGOEQPLWPVQQUEQGEKGPVGUFCUXCTKXGKUFQ/QFGNQ#UQGUVCVKUVKECOGPVGFKHGTGPVGUFG\GTQ14wCLWUVCFQOQUVTCSWGQOQFGNQHQKDGOCLWUVCFQ1XCNQTFQVGUVG&WTDKP9CVUQPdw OQUVTCSWGQOQFGNQPQRQUUWKCWVQEQTTGNCQPQUTGUFWQU1VGUVGFG&KEMG[(WNNGT#WOGPVCFQ

#&(OQUVTCSWGCUTKGFCXCTKXGNpib_constcivGUVCEKQPTKCKUVQPQRQUUWKTCK\WPKVTKC

1U TGUWNVCFQUOQUVTCO SWG CGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQU KPFWUVTKCNK\CFQUGUVCVKUVKECOGPVG UKIPKHKECVKXC G RQUKVKXCEQOXCNQTPQKPVGTXCNQ=?OQUVTCPFQSWGQURTQFWVQUFC KPFUVTKCFG EQPUVTWQ EKXKN UQ GOOFKCDGPUPQTOCKU GPGEGUUTKQU1DUGTXCUGSWGWOCWOGPVQFGPCTGPFCPCEKQPCNCECTTGVCCWOGPVQFGGOOFKCPCTGPFCFCKPFUVTKCFGEQPUVTWQEKXKN

#6CDGNCOQUVTCQUTGUWNVCFQURCTC Q/QFGNQ# #PNKUG FCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUFCKPFUVTKCFGGNGVTKEKFCFGIUGIWC

Os resultados mostram que

a elasticidade-renda da demanda

por produtos industrializados estatisticamente VLJQLFDWLYDH

positiva, com valor no LQWHUYDOR>@

mostrando que os SURGXWRVGDLQG~VWULDGHFRQVWUXomRFLYLOVmRHPPpGLDEHQVQRUPDLVHQHFHVViULRV



Varivel %QGEKGPVG Erro padro Estatstica t P-valorconstante RKDAPCE WCA

( 2TQD (4w C LWU VCFQ

dw

#&( RKDAPCE

2XCNQT =#&( RKDAPCE?

#&(RKDAGNGVTKE

2XCNQT=#&(RKDAGNGVTKE?

Fonte: Os autores.

1XCNQTFCGUVCVUVKEC(GUWCUKIPKEPEKCOQUVTCOSWGGOEQPLWPVQQUEQGEKGPVGUFCUXCTKXGKUFQ/QFGNQ#UQGUVCVKUVKECOGPVGFKHGTGPVGUFG\GTQ14wCLWUVCFQOQUVTCSWGQOQFGNQHQKDGOCLWUVCFQ1XCNQTFQVGUVG&WTDKP9CVUQPdwOQUVTCSWGQOQFGNQPQRQUUWKCWVQEQTTGNCQPQUTGUFWQU1VGUVGFG&KEMG[(WNNGT#WOGPVCFQ#&(OQUVTCSWGCUTKGFCXCTKXGNpib_eletricGUVCEKQPTKCKUVQPQRQUUWKTCK\WPKVTKC

1UTGUWNVCFQUOQUVTCOSWGCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUKPFWUVTKCNK\CFQUGUVCVKUVKECOGPVGUKIPKECVKXCGRQUKVKXCEQOXCNQTUWRGTKQTWPKFCFGOQUVTCPFQSWGQURTQFWVQUFCKPFUVTKCFGGNGVTKEKFCFGIUGIWCUQGOOFKCDGPUFGNWZQQWUWRTWQU1DUGTXCUGSWGWOCWOGPVQFGPCTGPFCPCEKQPCNCECTTGVCCWOGPVQFGGOOFKCPCTGPFCFCKPFUVTKCFGGNGVTKEKFCFGIUGIWC

#6CDGNCOQUVTCQUTGUWNVCFQURCTCQ/QFGNQ##PNKUGFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUFCKPFUVTKCGZVTCVKXCOKPGTCN


Varivel %QGEKGPVG Erro padro Estatstica t P-valorconstante RKDAPCE WCA ( 2TQD (4 w C LWU VCFQ

dw

#&( RKDAPCE

2XCNQT=#&(RKDAPCE?

#&(RKDAGZVOKP

2XCNQT=#&(RKDAGZVOKP?

#&( TGUFWQ

2XCNQT=#&(TGUFWQ?

Fonte: Os autores.

1XCNQTFCGUVCVUVKEC(GUWCUKIPKEPEKCOQUVTCOSWGGOEQPLWPVQQUEQGEKGPVGUFCUXCTKXGKUFQ/QFGNQ#UQGUVCVKUVKECOGPVGFKHGTGPVGUFG\GTQ14wCLWUVCFQOQUVTCSWGQOQFGNQHQKDGOCLWUVCFQ1XCNQTFQVGUVG&WTDKP9CVUQPdwOQUVTCSWGQOQFGNQPQRQU

UWK CWVQEQTTGNCQPQU TGUFWQU1VGUVGFG&KEMG[(WNNGT#WOGPVCFQ

#&(OQUVTCSWGCUTKGFCXCTKXGNpib_extminPQGUVCEKQPTKCKUVQRQUUWK TCK\WPKVTKC0QGPVCPVQ QVGUVGFGEQKPVGITCQOQUVTQWSWGQUTGUFWQUFQOQFGNQUQGUVCEKQPTKQU=#&(TGUFWQ?QSWGSWGTFK\GTSWGQOQFGNQRQFGUGTGUVKOCFQUGOPGPJWOVTCVCOGPVQGURGEKCNFCUXCTKXGKU

1U TGUWNVCFQUOQUVTCO SWG CGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQU KPFWUVTKCNK\CFQUGUVCVKUVKECOGPVG UKIPKHKECVKXC G RQUKVKXCEQOXCNQTUWRGTKQT WPKFCFGOQUVTCPFQSWGQURTQFWVQUFC KPFUVTKC GZVTCVKXCOKPGTCN UQ GOOFKCDGPUFGNWZQQWUWRTWQU1DUGTXCUGSWGWOCWOGPVQFGPCTGPFCPCEKQPCNCECTTGVCCWOGPVQFGGOOFKCPCTGPFCFCKPFUVTKCGZVTCVKXCOKPGTCN

#6CDGNC OQUVTC QU TGUWNVCFQURCTCQ/QFGNQ##PNKUGFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUFC KPFUVTKCFG VTCPUHQTOCQ

Os resultados mostram que

a elasticidade-renda da demanda

por produtos industrializados estatisticamente

VLJQLFDWLYDHSRVLWLYDcom valor superior jXQLGDGHmostrando que os

SURGXWRVGDLQG~VWULDH[WUDWLYDPLQHUDOVmRHPPpGLDEHQVGHOX[RRXVXSpUXRV



Varivel %QGEKGPVG Erro padro Estatstica t P-valorconstante RKDAPCE WCA WCA ( 2TQD (4w C LWUVCFQ

dw

#&( RKDAPCE

2XCNQT =#&( RKDAPCE?

#&(RKDAVTCPUH

2XCNQT =#&( RKDAVTCPUH?

Fonte: Os autores.

1XCNQTFCGUVCVUVKEC(GUWCUKIPKEPEKCOQUVTCOSWGGOEQPLWPVQQUEQGEKGPVGUFCUXCTKXGKUFQ/QFGNQ#UQGUVCVKUVKECOGPVGFKHGTGPVGUFG\GTQ14wCLWUVCFQOQUVTCSWGQOQFGNQHQKDGOCLWUVCFQ1XCNQTFQVGUVG&WTDKP9CVUQPdwOQUVTCSWGQOQFGNQPQRQUUWKCWVQEQTTGNCQPQUTGUFWQU1VGUVGFG&KEMG[(WNNGT#WOGPVCFQ#&(OQUVTCSWGCUTKGFCXCTKXGNpib_transfGUVCEKQPTKCKUVQPQRQUUWKTCK\WPKVTKC

1UTGUWNVCFQUOQUVTCOSWGCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUKPFWUVTKCNK\CFQUGUVCVKUVKECOGPVGUKIPKECVKXCGRQUKVKXCEQOXCNQTPQKPVGTXCNQ=?OQUVTCPFQSWGQURTQFWVQUFCKPFUVTKCFGVTCPUHQTOCQUQGOOFKCDGPUPQTOCKUGPGEGUUTKQU1DUGTXCUGSWGWOCWOGPVQFGPCTGPFCPCEKQPCNCECTTGVCCWOGPVQFGGOOFKCPCTGPFCFCKPFUVTKCFGVTCPUHQTOCQ

#6CDGNCOQUVTCQUTGUWNVCFQURCTCQ/QFGNQ$#PNKUGFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTUGTXKQU

Tabela 06 Resultado do Modelo B

Varivel %QGEKGPVG Erro padro Estatstica t P-valorconstante RKDAPCE WDA ( 2TQD (4w CLWUVCFQ dw

#&(RKDAPCE

2XCNQT=#&(RKDAPCE?

#&( RKDAUGTX

2XCNQT=#&(RKDAUGTX?

Fonte: Os autores.

1XCNQTFCGUVCVUVKEC(GUWCUKIPKEPEKCOQUVTCOSWGGOEQPLWPVQQU EQGEKGPVGUFCUXCTKXGKUFQ/QFGNQ$ UQGUVCVKUVKECOGPVGFKHGTGPVGUFG\GTQ14wCLWUVCFQOQUVTCSWGQOQFGNQHQKDGOCLWUVCFQ1XCNQTFQVGUVG&WTDKP9CVUQPdwOQUVTCSWGQOQFGNQPQRQU

UWK CWVQEQTTGNCQPQU TGUFWQU1VGUVGFG&KEMG[(WNNGT#WOGPVCFQ

#&(OQUVTCSWGCUTKGFCXCTKXGNpib_serv GUVCEKQPTKC KUVQ PQRQUUWKTCK\WPKVTKC

1U TGUWNVCFQUOQUVTCO SWG CGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTUGTXKQUGUVCVKUVKECOGPVGUKIPKECVKXCGRQUKVKXCEQOXCNQTUWRGTKQTWPKFCFG OQUVTCPFQSWGQURTQFWVQUFGUGTXKQUUQGOOFKCDGPUFGNWZQQWUWRTWQU1DUGTXCUGSWGWOCWOGPVQFGPCTGPFCPCEKQPCN CECTTGVC CWOGPVQFG GOOFKC PC TGPFCFQ UGVQTFGUGTXKQU

#6CDGNCCRTGUGPVCQTGUWNVCFQdos efeitos da varivel pib_nac2+$PCEKQPCNUQDTGQU2+$UFCKPFUVTKCPQIGTCNGFCUKPFUVTKCUFGEQPUVTWQ EKXKN GNGVTKEKFCFG IU G IWCextrativa mineral e de transformaQ1XCNQTFGTGHGTPEKCcorrespondente ao efeito do pib_nac UQDTGQRTQFWVQFQUGVQTFGUGTXKQU&GUVCHQTOCUGQUXCNQTGUFGUVCVCDGNCHQTGOOCKQTGUGOOFWNQSWGQXCNQTFGTGHGTPEKCPQJFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQPCKPFUVTKCGOSWGUVQECUQEQPVTTKQJ

Os resultados mostram que a

elasticidade-renda da GHPDQGDSRUVHUYLoRV

estatisticamente VLJQLFDWLYDHSRVLWLYD

com valor superior jXQLGDGHmostrando que os

SURGXWRVGHVHUYLoRVVmRHPPpGLDEHQVGHOX[RRXVXSpUXRV


Tabela 07 Resultados da anlise da elasticidade-renda da de-manda

Referncia = Servios Elasticidade = 1,2237

6KRQFG+PFUVTKC Elasticidade %QPENWUQ

+PFUVTKCCITGICFC *FGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQPCUKPFUVTKCUGOVGTOQUCITGICFQU

%QPUVTWQEKXKN *FGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQ PC KPFUVTKC FGEQPUVTWQEKXKN

'NGVTKEKFCFGIUGIWC 0QJFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQPCKPFUVTKCFGGNGVTKEKFCFGIUGIWC

Extrativa mineral 0QJFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQPC KPFUVTKCGZVTCVKXCOKPGTCN

6TCPUHQTOCQ *FGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQ PC KPFUVTKC FGVTCPUHQTOCQ

Fonte: Os autores.

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

%CDGNGODTCTSWG1TGKTQG(GKL

CHKTOCO SWG IGTCNOGPVGC GNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFC FC FGOCPFCRQT UGTXKQU OCKQT FQ SWG CGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTRTQFWVQUKPFWUVTKCNK\CFQUPQURCUGUFGUGPXQNXKFQU1$TCUKNCKPFCWORCU GOFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQOCUFGCNVC TGPFCCRQPVQFG UGT EQPUKFGTCFQWORCUGOGTIGPVG KUVQRQFGGZRNKECTQHCVQFGCNIWOCUKPFUVTKCUDTCUKNGKTCUVGTGOCRTGUGPVCFQFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQGOUWCGUVTWVWTCFGFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQ

5. Concluso'UVG VTCDCNJQQDLGVKXQWCPCNKUCT

Q RTQEGUUQFGFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQPQ $TCUKN CVTCXU FC CPNKUG FCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCWOCXG\SWG GNC EQPUKFGTCFCWOFQURTKPEKRCKUHCVQTGU KPVGTPQUGEQPQOKCFGWORCUSWGOQVKXCOGUVGCKPKEKCTVCNRTQEGUUQ

#CPNKUGFCGXQNWQFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCOQUVTQWSWGCGUVTWVWTCFGFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQdas indstrias em geral e das indsVTKCUFG VTCPUHQTOCQRTQREKCFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQ CRTGUGPVCPFQGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCGOOFKCOGPQTFQSWGCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTUGTXKQU1EQPVTTKQHQKQDUGTXCFQRCTCCUKPFUVTKCUFGEQPUVTWQEKXKNFGGNGVTKEKFCFGIUGIWCGGZVTCVKXCOKPGTCN#GUVTWVWTCFGFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQFGUUCUKPFUVTKCUOQUVTQWPQUGTRTQREKCFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQCRTGUGPVCPFQGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCGOOFKCOCKQTFQSWGCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRQTUGTXKQU

2QTQWVTQNCFQQUOQFGNQUGEQPQOVTKEQUOQUVTCTCOTGUWNVCFQUFKHGTGPVGUFQSWGCCPNKUGFCGXQNWQFCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCRCTCC KPFUVTKCFG EQPUVTWQ EKXKN1UTGUWNVCFQUFQUOQFGNQUOQUtraram SWGCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFC

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

# KPFUVTKCFG EQPUVTWQ EKXKNQHGTGEGRTQFWVQUSWGUQGUUGPEKCKUOCUPQPGEGUUTKQUGOGZEGUUQ5WCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFC CRTGUGPVQWUGCDCKZQFCWPKFCFGQSWGUKIPKECSWGQURTQFWVQUFCKPFUVTKCFG EQPUVTWQ EKXKN UQ VKFQU EQOQDGPUPQTOCKUGPGEGUUTKQU

# KPFUVTKCFG GNGVTKEKFCFGIUG IWC CITGIC CU KPFUVTKCU SWGQHGTGEGORTQFWVQU HWPFCOGPVCKURCTCQJQOGOOQFGTPQRQT KUUQUWCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCCRTGUGPVQWUGCNVC1HCVQFGTGRTGUGPVCTDGPUFGNWZQQWUWRTWQURQFG UGT GZRNKECFQRGNQ HCVQFGSWGSWCPFQCTGPFCFQKPFKXFWQ

Tais ind~VWULDVHVWmRVHGHVLQGXVWULDOL]DQGR

3DUDDVLQG~VWULDVde eletricidade, gs e gua e extrativa

mineral a elasticidade-renda da demanda

por produtos dessas LQG~VWULDVpPDLRU

do que a essa elasticidade por

VHUYLoRV


CWOGPVCUWCPGEGUUKFCFGRQTWUCTOCKU GNGVTKEKFCFGOCKU IU GOCKUIWCPQCWOGPVCOWKVQ%QPVWFQRQT UGT WO DGO HWPFCOGPVCN CRTQEWTCRGNQURTQFWVQUFGUVG VKRQFG KPFUVTKCPQFGKZCOFGGZKUVKT0COGFKFC GOSWG QU KPFKXFWQUCWOGPVCOUWCTGPFCGODWUECFGOCKQTEQPHQTVQGNGUCWOGPVCOOCKUFQSWGRTQRQTEKQPCNOGPVGCRTQEWTCRQTVCKUDGPU

A indstria extrativa mineral agrega as indstrias relacionadas GZRNQTCQ G RTQEGUUCOGPVQ FGRGVTNGQGUGWUFGTKXCFQURQTKUUQUWCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCCRTGUGPVQWUGCNVC3WCPFQQU KPFKXFWQU VOWOCWOGPVQPCTGPFC UWCPGEGUUKFCFGFGWUWHTWKTFQURTQFWVQUFGUVCKPFUVTKCPQCWOGPVCOCUFGXKFQCQOCKQTEQPHQTVQUWCUFGOCPFCUCWOGPVCOOCKUSWGRTQRQTEKQPCNOGPVGCUWCTGPFC

, GTC GURGTCFQ SWG C CPNKUGFC KPFUVTKCFG VTCPUHQTOCQRQTagregar a maior parte dos tipos de KPFUVTKCUHQUUGUGOGNJCPVG CPNKUGFCKPFUVTKCCITGICFC0CKPFUVTKCFG VTCPUHQTOCQ GUVQ CITGICFCUCURTKPEKRCKU KPFUVTKCU SWG VTCPUformam as commoditiesQWRTQFWVQUDUKEQUGORTQFWVQUOCKUGNCDQTCFQU5WCGNCUVKEKFCFGTGPFCFCFGOCPFCOQUVTQWUGOGPQT SWG C WPKFCFG

QSWGUKIPKECSWGUGWURTQFWVQUUQDGPUPQTOCKUGPGEGUUTKQU

'OUWOCCGUVTWVWTCFGFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQFCU KPFUVTKCUDTCUKNGK

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

Referncias

#074+1'56#656+%1Mi-nistrio do Desenvolvimento, Inds-

tria e Comrcio Exterior. Disponvel GO http://www.mdic.gov.br//sitio/interna/interna.php?area=2&menu=1479 #EGUUQGOOCT

$10'..+42'55#5# Desindus-trializao no Brasil: um resumo da

evidncia.()8OCTR6GZVQRCTC&KUEWUUQP

$7'014QFTKIQ&G.QUUQFC5KNXGKTCEconometria de sries temporais5Q2CWNQ%GPICIG.GCTPKPIR

'0&'459CNVGTApplied econome-tric times series ,QJP9KNG[5QPUR

('+, %# %#48#.*1 2)/#./'+ ,5)Ocorreu uma de-sindustrializao no Brasil?+PUVKVWVQFG'UVWFQU2CTCQ&GUGPXQNXKOGPVQ+PFWUVTKCN+'&+R

+2'## +PUVKVWVQ FG 2GUSWKUC'EQPOKEC#RNKECFCTaxa de cmbio para exportaes &KURQPXGN GOhttp://www.ipeadata.gov.br/ #EGUUQGOPQX

.6-'21*.*GNOWVNew introduc-tion to multiple times series analysis5RTKPIGTR

0#55+(#PFT* GXKFPEKCUFGFGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQPQ$TCUKN!Brazilian Journal of Political EconomyXPRLCPOCT

14'+41 ,. ('+, %# &GUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQ EQPEGKVWCQ ECWUCUGHGKVQUGQECUQDTCUKNGKTQRevista de Economia PolticaXPRCDTLWP

2#./# ,QU)CDTKGN3WCVTQ HQPVGUFG FGUKPFWUVTKCNK\CQ GWOPQXQEQPEGKVQFG FQGPCJQNCPFGUC +P%10('40%+#&' +0&7564+#.+

análise da desindustrialização no brasil através da elasticidade-renda da demanda

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