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“PETRÓLEO e GÁS: a Evolução dos Preços, asMudanças Estratégicas nos Mercados e as
Consequências Geopolíticas”
ORDEM dos ENGENHEIROS
Lisboa, 1 de Outubro de 2015
António Costa SilvaPresidente da Comissão Executiva
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01-10-2015 2Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
Ordem dos Engenheiros
1. A GEOPOLÍTICA DA ENERGIA
2. EVOLUÇÃO dos PREÇOS do PETRÓLEO e GÁS no MUNDOe CONSEQUÊNCIAS ECONÓMICAS e GEOPOLÍTICAS
3. O PAPEL do “SHALE GAS”
4. IMPLICAÇÕES para o FUTURO
Sumário
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1. A GEOPOLÍTICA DA ENERGIA
Ordem dos Engenheiros António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva01-10-2015 3
Ordem dos Engenheiros
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Ordem dos Engenheiros António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva01-10-2015 4
A GEOPOLÍTICA e aECONOMIA
. Efeitos da globalização
. Declínio do Estado-Nação
. Emergência de NovosActores
. Transferência parcial dopoder financeiro
. Crise global do sistemacapitalista
AS AMEAÇAS GLOBAIS
. Climática (migrações)
. Terrorismo
. Pirataria
. Estados falhados
. Colapso da ordem emzonas do Globo
. Proliferação Nuclear
. Armas de destruiçãomaciça
OS RECURSOS
. Recursos cada vez maisescassos
. Intensificação da lutapelos recursos:
- Minerais
- Energéticos
- Alimentares
- Água. Controle de matérias-primas estratégicas
Para onde vai o Século XXI?
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Population, GDP and Primary Energy Consumption
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2009
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01-10-2015 6Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
PLANETA TERRA
• 13 000 km de diâmetro• Mais de 100 elementos
químicos• 2 000 espécies de
minerais• Mais de 3 000 mil milhões
de barris de petróleo
A INDÚSTRIA MINEIRA• Consome hoje de 4 a 10% da energia
primária produzida no mundo• Extracção de metais exige 10 vezes mais
energia que a extracção fluídos• A barreira mineralógica
• Nos próximos 20 anos à escala do Globo épreciso extrair mais minérios que durantetoda a História anterior da Humanidade
• Declínio das descobertas e esgotamentograndes jazigos
AS TECNOLOGIAS• O paradoxo de Jevons: mais evolução
tecnológica conduz a mais consumo• As descobertas maiores do futuro virão do
fundo do mar• A robótica e os sistemas inteligentes• As nanotecnologias podem reduzir as
necessidades
• Novo paradigma industrial: Nano-máquinascom rendimentos energéticos elevados
O RITMO EXPONENCIAL DECONSUMO E OS LIMITES DA
GEOLOGIA
• Aumento significativo da procuramundial de minerais
• O sentimento de abundância éuma ilusão?
A TABELA PERIÓDICA DEMENDELEIEV
• 1980: apenas 10 elementos exploradospara aplicações industriais
• 2012: mais de 50
• Computadores, IndústriaAeroespacial, electrónica, Imagiologia,
etc.• Hoje 26 elementos da Tabela estão em
penúriaUM MUNDO DE RECURSOSFINITOS
• Debate entre cornucopianos emaltusianos
• Os eternos optimistas e oseternos pessimistas
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Ordem dos Engenheiros António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
PRODUCTION PERCENT
INCREASE1950 - 2000
1950 1975 2000
Bauxite 8,370 25,401 135,000 1,513
Cobalt 7 30 33 371
Copper 2,645 6,960 13,200 399
Iron ore 250,000 887,389 1,061,148 324
Nickel 146 787 1,250 756
Titanium 814 3,298 5,187 537
Crude oil (billion barrels) 3,8 19,5 27,3 618
Natural gas (tillion cubic feet) 7,2 55,8 85,1 1,082
PRODUCTION of SELECTED COMMODITIES, 1950, 1975, and 2000(in thousand metric tons, unless otherwise noted)
Source: US Grological Survey, Minerals Yearbook; BP, Statistical Review of Weorld Energy
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01-10-2015 8
2 0
1 2
POPULATION
7 billion people
GDP 65 trillion US$
CAR FLEET
800 million cars
OIL USE in DEVELOPED WORLD
14 barrels/person/year
OIL USE in DEVELOPING WORLD
3 barrels/person/year
WORLD ENERGY MATRIX
. Oil Production is 5 t imes greater thanin 1957
. Renewables have established a more
secure foundation. Oil/Coal /Natural Gas provide 80% ofsupply
ELECTRICITY
1,5 billion people without access
WATER
700 million people with scarce resources
2 0
3 0
POPULATION
8,5 billion people
GDP 130 trillion US
CAR FLEET
3 billion cars
OIL USE
Billions of people with better incomes
go from 3 barrels/person/year up to 3or 4 times more
WORLD ENERGY MATRIX
. Dominance of Natural Gas?
. Consolidation of Renewables
. Solution for the transport system:
(electric/biofuels/GTL//fuel-cells)?
ELECTRICITY
. Reduction or not of inequality?
WATER . Reduction or not water access?
WORLD CHALLENGES
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01-10-2015 9Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
KEYFEATURESof the OIL
and the
GASMARKETS
FINANCIALIZATIONOF OIL
• Commodity but also financialasset
• New era of oil pricing dynamics
OIL PRICE VOLATILITY
• Departure of oil prices fromeconomic fundamentals
• Oil price 25% above marginal
cost of production
GEOPOLITICAL EFFECTS
• Market instability
• Perception of “supply” disruptions
• The “fear factor”
• Long-term oil price above 70
US$/bbl
OIL-SUPPLY CAPACITYIS GROWING• Improved recovery efficiency• Role of unconventional oil• Impact of Gas Shale
Revolution• Technology improvements
• Expansion of oil output
DE-CONVENTIONALIZATIONOF OIL SUPPLY
• US Gas Shale Revolution• Impact on Oil Shale and Tight
Oil• Build-up of US, Venezuela and
Canadian production capacity
• Brazil and Atlantic Basin Pre-Salt-discoveries
GLOBALIZATION OFOIL DEMAND
• 85% of growth fromdeveloping countries
• Combined effects of income
and population growth
UNPARALLELINVESTMENT CYCLE
• From 2003 investment growing
1.5 trillion US$ every 3 years• Investment in 2012 may reach
a new record (600 billion US$)
• Strong build-up of productioncapacity
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01-10-2015 10Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
OIL ON THE EDGEBreak Throughs – and High Prices – have openedup new frontiers for Petroleum
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CONSTRAINTS ON OIL AND GAS FLOW FROM MIDDLE EAST
Source: 21st World Upstream Conference Organizer Global Pacific & Partners01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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THE GEOPOLITCS OF OIL
Source: FT, 30th March 2011 01-10-2015
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01-10-2015 14Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
JIHAD IN AFRICATHE DANGER IN THE DESERT
Source: The Economist, January 26th - February 1st
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01-10-2015 16Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
OIL ROUTING AKTAU-MAKHACHKALA-NOVOROSSIYSK
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01-10-2015 17Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
Central Asia Centre System45-55 Bcm/yrNominal Capacity 100Bcm/yr
GAS EXPORT
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01-10-2015 18Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
UNCONVENTIONAL GAS
INSTABILITY in PRODUCINGCOUNTRIES and THREATS
to SUPPLY
FUKUSHIMA NUCLEARACCIDENT
CLIMATE CHANGE andENVIRONMENTAL REVOLUTION
EMERGENCE of PACIFIC BASIN asTOP ENERGY CONSUMER
INDUSTRY CATASTROPHIC ACCIDENTS(e.g. OFFSHORE OIL Spills) and PUBLICIMAGE
ENERGY GAME CHANGERS in XXI CENTURY
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01-10-2015 19Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
2. EVOLUÇÃO dos PREÇOS do PETRÓLEO e GÁS no MUNDOe CONSEQUÊNCIAS ECONÓMICAS e GEOPOLÍTICAS
Ordem dos Engenheiros
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01-10-2015 20Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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OIL PRICESEXPLICATIVE FACTORS
BALANCESUPPLY/DEMAND
• 2015: 2 MB/Doversupply
• OPEC
• IRAN• USA
TECHNOLOGICALBREAKTHROUGHS
• Shale Gas andShale Oilrevolution
• New reserves
• New generatingcapacity
• New paradigm
GEOPOLITICAL
EFFECTS•OPEC policies
•Consumers policies
•Instability in key oïlproducers
•Terrorism attacks
•More strong whensupply/demand Balanceis tight
OIL MARKETCYCLES
•CONTANGO cycle:future prices higherthan today prices
•Backwardation cycle:today prices higher
than futures
SPECULATION in OILand COMMODITIES
MARKETS
•Sudden sales of netpositions
•Market perception
“THE DOLLAREFFECT”
• Negative correlationoil prices vs. Dollarvalue
•Effect of US FederalReserve Policy
LEVEL ofINVENTORIES
• US stockpiles• Europe stockpiles• Asia stockpiles
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01-10-201523
O I L
Chinese NetOil Imports
• Increased 84% in 7 years (2005-2012)
Increment on OilConsumption
• Last 13 years CHINA recorded the largest incrementin the world 12 times
Chinese Oil imports • December 2012 reached 10.6 MB/D
C O A L
Domestic CoalProduction
• Increased 135% last 10 years• Every 5 days a new coal plant opens in China• 70% of Chinese Energy Matrix based on coal• Huge environment problems
World CoalConsumption
• In 2012 for the first time in History China consumedmore coal than the rest of the world (50.2%)
C
A R
F L E E T
Growth of China CarFleet
• 1 million cars in 1990• 100 million cars in 2012
Share of world newvehicles
• China share was 2% in 2002• China share was 25% in 2012
Sales of New Cars • China overcome the US in sales of new cars in 2011• 12 million vehicles in China vs. 11 million in US
E N V I R O N M E N T
Most PollutedCities in the world
• Out of the 20 most polluted cities in the world Chinahas 16
• Electric vehicle will be unavoidable• Huge geopolitical implications
CHINA ENERGY INDICATORS
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01-10-2015 24Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
Source: 21st World Upstream Conference Global Pacific & Partners
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HIGH OIL
PRICEEFFECTSin the
Economy
GDP Drop (0.3%for each 8 US$/bblincrease in Euro
zone)
Risk of changesof Central Bank
policies:. Increase of interest
rates. Abandon debt
purchase
. Less financingavailable
Aggravation ofrecessionsequels:
. Unemployment
. Loss of income
. Debt increase
HIGHER OILIMPORT BILL
(more 95 billionUS$ for each 10 US$ /bbl increase In EU)
Aggravates fragilerecovery of worldeconomies
(average growth3.3% in 2011 vs3.9% in 2010)
Acceleratesprocess oftransference ofwealth fromdeveloped
countries to OPECproducers (980 bill-lion US$ in 2008)
Hígher Inflation
HigherCommodity
prices
Higher ProductionCosts
Reduction ofavailable incomefor families and
enterprises
01-10-2015 2525
DOLLARS h ’ i h h ’
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01-10-2015 26
PETRO- DOLLARS: who’s rich who’s not
Ordem dos Engenheiros António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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01-10-2015 27Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
Rising Oil price threatens fragile recovery
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01-10-2015 28Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
Fonte: Público, 23 Agosto 2014
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01-10-2015 29Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
OIL PRICE2011-2013has beenSTABLE
( most stableperiod inindustry)
OIL PRICE CRASH?
• Next 5 years world may
experience oversupply
• Non-OPEC oil output rise by 1.7
MB/D (2014)
• Total Global demand grows by
1.4 MB/D
• Weak demand due to economic
slowdown in Europe and China
• Question: combination of
slowing demand and plentiful
supplies will overlap the
geopolitical tensions in Middle
East and North Africa?
EFFECT OF SHALEBOOM IN US• US oil production 2008: 6
MB/D• US oil production 2013: 9
MB/D• Canada added 1 MB/D• North America shale boom
has been a calming factor• Production lost in key
countries has been replacedby US shale boom andCanada increase inproduction
PRODUCTION DECLINE INSOME KEY COUNTRIES
• Libya (less 80%)
• Iran sanctions/violence (less 1.5
MB/D)• Nigeria violence/sabotage (less
0.3 MB/D)
• Venezuela (underinvestment)
• Political chaos: in total less 3.5
MB/D in production
IMPACT ON WORLD
ENERGY TRADE• US oil imports 2005: 60% of
total consumption
• US oil imports 2014: 28%
• Most oil US used to importnow goes to Asia
• Helped markets to be well-supplied and prices immuneto turmoil
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The Economist, 18-24 October 2014
01-10-2015 30
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01-10-2015 31Ordem dos Engenheiros António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
OIL PRICEDROP IN 2014 __________
• Price of Brentfall below 100USD/bbl firsttime last
years
SAUDI ARABIA EFFECT• SA cutted selling prices
• Unlikely to curb production amid an excess ofcrude supply
• SA lost market share in 2013/2014 in Asiaand Mediterranean to Irak and Iran (heavydiscounts)
• Low-cost OPEC producers seeking to expandtheir market share.
GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS
AND SUPPLY
• Geopolitical upheavals only in
Libya/Irak not affected significantly
production
• Excess of oil in Atlantic Basin and
North Sea
• European refineries cut back amidweak margins
• Structural changes in consumers
behaviour towards more efficient
technologies
GLOBAL ECONOMICRECOVERY• Oil is a leading indicator• Global economic recovery
weaker than forecasted
SUPPLY/ DEMANDBALANCE
• Crude demand slowedremarkably Q2 2014
• Weak economic growth in
Europe and China• Raise in global inventories
• IEA: global crude demand
slowed to below 500,000 B/D
• First significant drop in last 2.5
years MARKET STRUCTURE• Shift to Contango
(prices for future delivery
exceed spot prices)• Prompt agents to build stocks
• Given volatility of situation inthe Middle East and North Africa this is a benefit toGlobal Energy Security
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3201-10-2015Source: The Economist, 05-11 September 2015
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3301-10-2015
Analysis
•More complex situation
•Saudi Arabia Role
•Erosion of OPEC influence
•No control on Non-OPEC
production
•Iran in difficulties
•Russia, Iran, Venezuela and Nigeria
need oil above 100 US$bbl to avoidhuge fiscal deficits
•Undermine competitor advantages
including alternative energies
•But economics of shale oil is very
flexible
•Break-even: 57 to 65 US$/bbl
•Based on wells
•Investment one well: 1.5 M US$•Gain in productivity:
US economic pragmatism
•In the long-term shale industry may
prevail
Source: The Economist, 06-12 December 2014
Sheikhs v shale
Ordem dos Engenheiros António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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The Economist, 18-24 October 2014
01-10-201534Source: The Economist, 25-31 Oct 2014
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3501-10-2015
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Source: The Economist, 05-11 September 2015
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01-10-2015 37Ordem dos Engenheiros António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
OIL PRICES
• Companies as beneficiaries?
• MSCI index world energysector down 5.5% (2014)while equities up 3%
• Oil companies cut capex andpay shareholders throughdividends and buybacks
• Keep their share price
Source: FT, 8-9 November 2014
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01-10-2015 38Ordem dos Engenheiros António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
Fonte: DGEG
Impacto Económico da Dependência Excessiva de Combustíveis Fósseis
Evolução do Consumo de Petróleo em Portugal
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Fonte: BP Statistical Review of World Energy –
Junho 2015
Evolução do Consumo de Petróleo em Portugal
39
E l ã d C d Gá N t l P t l
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Evolução do Consumo de Gás Natural em Portugal
Fonte: BP Statistical Review of World Energy – Junho 2014
Fonte: BP Statistical Review of World Energy –
Junho 2015
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01-10-2015 41Ordem dos Engenheiros António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
Fonte: DGEG
Peso da Importação dos Produtos Energéticosno PIBpm ( €)
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01-10-2015 42Ordem dos Engenheiros António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
Fonte: Prof. José Sucena Paiva
Fontes de Energia Primária
Portugal, 2010
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01-10-2015 43Ordem dos Engenheiros António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
• Sector dos transportes consome 36% do total da energia final;
• Transportes rodoviários concentram 33% deste consumo e correspondema um Consumo Energético Intensivo fortemente dependente doscombustíveis fósseis;
• Geram um desperdício colossal;
• O problema agravou-se entre 1990 e 2004: aumento de consumo de 4.5% aoano com a expansão do parque automóvel;
• Nos últimos anos verificou-se tendência ligeira para a redução do consumodevido aos aumentos dos preços dos combustíveis: necessidade deconsolidação desta tendência.
PORTUGAL: O PROBLEMA-CHAVE DOS TRANSPORTES
TRANSPORTES SÃO O PRINCIPALPROBLEMA ENERGÉTICO DO PAÍS
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01-10-2015 44Ordem dos Engenheiros António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
IMAGEM TÉRMICA doDESPERDÍCIO de ENERGIA
Washington, 2012
Estrada Congestionada
Veículos em filas lentas
Só 15% da energia fornecidapela gasolina é utilizada
TRANSPORTES: QUESTÕES
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01-10-2015 45Ordem dos Engenheiros António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
• Enorme dependência externa do petróleo e seus derivados;
• Poluição elevada e emissões de CO2;
• Congestionamento do tráfego nas cidades, mais desperdício e baixa deprodutividade;
• Volume desproporcionado do transporte individual em relação ao público;
• Portugueses não têm hábito de utilizar preferencialmente os transportespúblicos;
• Desenvolver um novo paradigma para a mobilidade urbana baseado notransporte público;
• Criação de uma nova cultura com restrições na circulação do carroindividual e dificuldades de estacionamento nos centros urbanos de altadensidade;
• Rever políticas de planeamento e ordenamento urbano;
• Apelo e educação para a utilização dos transportes públicos;
• Melhor gestão de acessibilidade às cidades e soluções de integração com arede de transportes públicos.
TRANSPORTES: QUESTÕES
SOLUÇÕES
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01-10-2015 48Ordem dos Engenheiros António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
A world class source rock and a potentialshale gas reservoir – the Devonian-Mississippian Woodford Shale
What is the SHALE GAS?
PRODUCTION SOLUTION:
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01-10-2015 49Ordem dos Engenheiros António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
PRODUCTION SOLUTION:HYDRAULIC FRACTURING
• Fracture Technology is responsible forUSA success in gas shales
Use large amount ofwater in a short periodof time to develop a gas well
Addition of sand or othermaterial (proppants) to thefluid to keep induced fracturesopen
Most wells are horizontal withone or more horizontal legsextending to the target sections
The legs may extend more than2 Km from the surface locationof the well
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01-10-2015 50Ordem dos Engenheiros António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
Source: The Economist, 6th August 2011
WORLD TOTAL GAS RESERVES
The U S may be the world’s fastest developing shale gas industry
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China's shale gas basins are massive. The orange depictsprospective basins while the yellow shows proven grounds. The red
lines are pipelines. International Energy Agency
The U.S. may be the world’s fastest-developing shale gas industry,but China is thought have more of the cleaner alternative to coal.
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01-10-2015 52Ordem dos Engenheiros António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
Fonte: The Economist, 14th June 2014
The IEA calculates that electricity prices for German industry have tripled since 2000
Private Ownershipof the Land US ENERGY LAWDYNAMICS of US
ENERGY MARKETS
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01-10-2015 53Ordem dos Engenheiros António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
SUCCESS FACTORS of US
SHALE GAS MODEL.
Can it be exported?
ENVIRONMENTALREGULATIONS
• Identityenvironmentalimpacts
• Act throughregulation notthrough prohibition
GEOLOGY• Huge basins with vast
resources
• Ability to designincentives to tapresources
CREATIVITY/ /INNOVATION
• Ability to challengeexisting paradigms
• Invent new concepts
of the Land
• Fosters dynamismand individualinitiative
• Avoids burocracy andcomplication
INFRASTRUCTURE
• Availability ofpipelines andtransmission/distribution system
• Easy access• Use based on a “pay
tariff” • No Monopolies
ACCESS toFINANCING
• Easy• Simplified• Supportive
PRODUCTIONSYSTEM
• Active and matureindustry
• Production close topipelines andconsumers
• Water needs
SERVICECOMPANIES
• Drilling/Fracturing• Logging/Operations• Very active• Easy access
• PromotesEntrepreneurship
• Design mechanisms• Incentives
ENERGY MARKETS
• Role of small/mediumsize IndependentCompanies
US OIL SHALE: TEXAS HEARTLAND HEADS THE US OIL REVIVAL
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01-10-2015 54Ordem dos Engenheiros António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
Source: FT, 8th July 2013
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01-10-2015 55Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
Source: BP
FOOTPRINT CONCERNS
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01-10-2015 56Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
AIR: Emissions (CO2 & others…) Noise and dust (trucks , operations…)
LAND: Disposals (solid waste…)
Wildlife/Habitat disruptionSurface FootprintRoads & TrafficInduced SeismicityPipelinesSoil erosion
WATER: Aquifers quality / contamination
Availability / supplySustainable management (flow back…)
Transparency in OperationsRegulatory Response
ENVIRONMENT SOUND WAY?
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01-10-2015 57Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
ENVIRONMENT SOUND WAY?
APPLICATIONS
DR
DR
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01-10-2015 58Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
GAS
DRIVERS
DECARBONIZATION OF ECONOMY
. Gas is the least poluent of fossil
fuels
. May play key role in transition of
energy paradigm
APPLICATIONS
. Gas is most versatile of fossil fuels
. Used both in power generation andtransportation
. GTL may be competitive solution for
transport in Medium Term
EFFECTS OF JAPAN NUCLEAR CRISIS
. Decision of some countries to slowdownnuclear power (Germany, Italy, Japan)
. Opens a more decisive role for Gas
RIVERS
FOR
FURTHE
R
GAS
DEVE
LOPMENTS
RIVERS
FOR
FURTHE
R
GAS
DEVE
LOPMENTS
O d d E h i
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01-10-2015 59Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
4. IMPLICAÇÕES para o FUTURO
Ordem dos Engenheiros
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Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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01-10-2015 61
Source: ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
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01-10-2015 62Source: ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
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Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
Source: Exxon, The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
ENERGY MIX CONTINUES TO EVOLVE
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01-10-2015 65Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
TRANSPORTATION FUELS TO SEE RISING DEMAND
Source: Exxon Mobil, the 2010 Outlook for Energy: A view to 2030
THE GASEIFICATION of
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01-10-2015 66
THE GASEIFICATION ofUS ECONOMY
• Gas replacing coal-power plants
• GAS in the transport sector(cities/trucks)
SECULAR DOWNTURN of USFUEL CONSUMPTION
• Peak oil consumption in 2005• Last 7 years US oil demand dropped
by 14%
SHIFT in HABITS?• Car-pooling schemes more
popular in US• ZIPCAR more than 800,000 users
• No car taxes, no parking fees, nomechanics bill, no cardependence
• New generation with new vision?
• The growing “virtualization” of life
and Internet shopping
US LOVE AFFAIR withCARS SHIFTING?
• Effect of high oil prices andfinancial crisis
• Number of passengers inAmtrak in 2012 the highestsince 1971
• Oil consumption in Californiain 2012 the lowest since 1998
• Chicago and other cities:growing “PEDESTRIAN” and
more bicycle lanes
• LA public transport sector
reaching records (9 millionpassengers per month in2012)
EMERGING TRENDS in USTRANSPORT SECTOR
• Even so US DRIVERS reached
in 2012 4.8 trillion km (14 000trips to the sun)
TECHNOLOGY ISCHANGING THE WAY WE
LIVE, THE WAY WE WORKAND THE WAY WE PLAY
• The change in way we live,change the use of energy
• Growing urbanization
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
Energy Road Map and Solutions:
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01-10-2015 67Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
Many Possible Paths Leading to Same “Destination””
RISE OF THE AUTOMOTIVE PATENT TECH WARS
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01-10-2015 68Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
BUILDINGSE i T h l i
TRANSPORTATIONSYSTEMS
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Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
ELECTRICAL AND THERMALGENERATION
. Sequestration and storage of CO2:
- Post-Combustion
- Pre-Combustion
- Oxy-Fuel
. Electricity 30% plus expensive
"CLEAN COAL" FutureGen (USA):
1st Integrated Central
- Electricity Production+ Hydrogen with CO2 sequestration. Coal Gasification: Conversion in
gas (H + OC). Hydrogen Production. Renewables: Wind / Solar / Waves/Geothermal / Biomass/Nuclear Energy: 3rd and 4thGeneration
. Lighting 20% of world electricity
. LED / SSL
. Buildings: context
. Energetic Performance
. "Zero-Energy Homes"- Micro-generation
NANOTECHNOLOGIES
. Production / Storage of Energy
. Energy Efficiency
. New techniques to processhydrocarbons
Emerging Technologies:Decarbonisation Economy
. Energy Efficiency
. Economic Competitiveness
. Security
. Environmental Sustainability
. Batteries and plug-in cars
. Electric vehicles
. Advanced biofuels
. Natural gas vehicles
. Evolving smart grids
. Advances in internal combustion
. Increasing fuel efficiency
. Advanced diesels. New lighter materials
. Chemical Propulsion:- Space Industry
“SMART GRIDS”
. Producer / Consumer
. Decentralized and distributednetworks
NEW ENERGY LANDSCAPEServices provided: U
R E
New Entrants
N T Traditional Utilities
OLD MODEL
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• Send high voltages over long--distances to passivecustomers
• Main concerns: supplyelectricity and meet peaks indemand
• Vertical Integrated
• Big
• Centralized
• Regulated
• High Costs
• Deal with the most inefficientpart of the power industry:
the generating capacity thatis held in reserves to meetPeak Demand
• Old Business Model ofdelivering through the gridover long-distances is inretreat
• Need to take a long view
• Model under pressure: newentrants and new forms ofSTORAGE and GENERATIONare “eating” the OLDBusiness Model
• Analogy to computingindustry: switch from mainframes and terminals toCLOUD STORAGE and theInternet
• Need to do new things and
respond to COMPETITION
• Era of abundance in Energy
• Revolution of shale gas andshale oil
• Abundant gas reserves (2 to 3 xconventional)
• Renewables playing anincreasing role
• Solar energy impressive costreduction (75% decline last 6years)
• The “Hawaii” core example
• Technological breakthroughsin Storage, Energy Efficiency,Management of Demand,Intelligent Consumption
• The revolution of “NegaWatts”:the unused electricity
• Clever technology withincreased efficiency is shapingthe future
• Capital markets more tilted infinancing solar, storage, energyefficiency
• Costs of pollution:
“decarbonisation” • Demand for energy: increase
37% over next 25 years(“Internet of the Things” ; newdevices to be connected)
p• Demand response
• Supply
• Storage
• Energy efficiency
• Algorithms• Sensors• Processing power• Good Marketing
• Cheaper power + better storage +increased resilience: shape the gridof the future
• Transmission costs for electricity aredeclining
• Energy efficiency + Renewables +shale gas provide abundance ofenergy, accessible with newtechnologies
• More effective management ofsupply and demand: sensors,computer power and algorithms
• Pressure and changes on Business
Models: Management of demandresponse; microgrids; “Prosumers”
• Storage business is booming:biggest advantage avoids need ofgenerating capacity held in reservesto meet peak demand
• 1 Mw of storage replaces 10 Mw ofsuch generating capacity
• Batteries approaching crucial
benchmark: cost of storage 100US$/Kwh
P R E S E N T / F U T
P A S T / P R E S E N
Competitive Advantages
(the Internet Model”
OLD MODEL
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01-10-2015 71Ordem dos Engenheiros António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
FINANCE ENERGY FORUM
ABUNDANT ENERGY TECHNOLOGICAL
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HOW the WORLD of ENERGY
is CHANCHING:CURRENT BUSINESS MODEL
UNDER PRESSURE
STORAGE• Getting cheaper and better
• If intermittent energy can be storedits economics drastically improved
• Big advantage of storage: avoid mostinefficient part of power industry -the generating capacity held inreserve to meet peaks of demand
• 1 Mw storage replaces 10 Mw ofsuch generating capacity
• Electrical batteries: GIGAFACTORYapproaching key benchmark – 100US$/Kwh
• Close to grid parity
ABUNDANT ENERGY• Cycle of low oil prices• Shale gas revolution: gas more abundant
and easier to trade• Gas reserves 2 to 3 times the
conventional; global gas market
• Role of renewables• Solar renaissance• Resilience of supply• China effect on renewables: 2013
investment over 56 billion US$• Renewables energy became a serious
part of energy mix• World investment on renewables (2013)
214 billion US$ (53% for solar)• Costs of Solar: 75% reduction in 6 years
TECHNOLOGICALBREAKTHROUGHS
• Intelligent Consumption: usersgenerate, store and manage dataefficiently
• Clever technology + Energy Efficiencylead the change
• Greater efficiency, local productionand storage
• More effective management ofsupply and demand
• Micro Grids: new way of usingelectricity; cheaper; better design;data processing; changes inbehaviour
• The Grid is getting smarter “NEGAWATTS” and DEMAND-
RESPONSE REVOLUTION
• Deal with unused electricity
• Adjust consumption to meet supply
• Most expensive electricity consumedat peak time
• Technique of demand response: paycostumers to switch off at peak level
(2013 US 11.8 billion US$)• For the grid operator the spare power
gained is very useful• US/Japan examples: may lead to huge
small power savings from a largenumber of consumers.
• “Rush Hour Rewards”
• Spare capacity in Europe in Winter 10GW (19% of countries combined peakload)
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NEW BUSINESS MODELS
• Demand-response• Big data/processing• Sensors, Computing Power,
Algorithms• Energy efficiency: invisible fuel
DISTRIBUTION
• Transmission costs for electricity
are declining (solid-statetechnology)
• With new Technology demandcan be managed to matchsupply
• Analogy to computing industry:switch from main frames and
terminals to cloud storage andthe internet• Small producers and storage
creates resilience in the network• Innovation more fast
CAPITAL MARKETS
• Understanding disruptive effectof distributed and intermittentgeneration combined withcheaper storage and intelligentconsumption
• Growth of a bond market to payfor energy efficiency (40 billionUS$ in 2014)
• Solar City (USA) Model• Price of oil fluctuates; solar is
bound to get cheaper• Business models for new energy
systems are proven and a waveof money is breaking over the oldmodel
HOW the WORLD of ENERGY
is CHANCHING:
CURRENT BUSINESS MODEL
UNDER PRESSURE
01-10-2015
Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
THE FUTURE OF NATURAL GAS
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Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
THE FUTURE OF NATURAL GAS
Source: The Economist, 6th August 2011
Gas should make the world a cleaner, safer place
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Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
INTERLIGAÇÕES DA REDE DE GASODUTOS
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Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
Fonte: Expresso, 30 Agosto 2014
MAJOR ROLE of GAS
• Increasing share of world energy matrix
FOUR MAJOR TRENDSCHANGING WORLD ENERGY
MATRIX
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Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
GROWTH
and
SUSTAINABILITY
Increasing share of world energy matrix
• Shale Gas revolution and magnitude ofreserves
• Gas is most versatile of fossil fuels andleast poluent
• Used both in power generation andtransportation (GTL)
• “Gaseification” of economy
LNG and EFFECTS of JAPAN
NUCLEAR CRISIS
• Decision of some countries to slowdown
nuclear power (Germany, Italy, Japan)
• Open more decisive role for gas andspecially LNG
OIL & GAS INDUSTRYPUBLIC IMAGE
• Recent record of catastrophic accidentsdoes not help
• Need to improve risk management toaddress public concerns
• Industry engaged in environmental andemissions cutting technologies
• Better communication with the public
• Better environmental regulations without jeopardizing expansion of requiredprojects
Clean Technologies andReduction of CO2 Emissions
• Tolerance zero for Gas Flaring
• CO2 sequestration and injection intooil reservoirs (win-win approach)
• Control/reduction of VOC emissions(surface facilities)
• Improve Market “design mechanisms”to promote energy efficiency
LOW CARBON SOLUTIONS
• Buildings
• Electric/Thermal Generation
• Transportation systems
MATRIX
• Growing electrification
• Decarbonization
• Localization
• Optimization
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01-10-2015 78Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
CITIES are BESTINVENTION of MAN
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THE NEED of aPARADIGM SHIFT for
WORLD CITIES
• Cities occupy 2% of planet surface • 50% of world population • Consume 75% of energy produced
• Responsible for 80% of CO2 emissions
CITIES with CURRENTLANDSCAPE IMPLY
HUGE RISKS
•Frenetic urban growth•Difficulties in resourcesmanagement
•Drivers of atmospheric pollution•“Heat-Islands” •Negative impact on earth climaticsystem
•Key issue: transport system
INVENTION of MAN •Mark death of distance•Rotating platform for markets andcultures
•Connect human capital•Cities are main drivers of innovation
NEW MODEL for CITIES
• Water management• Energy management• Residuals treatment• New role of transport system based
on public transport + electric cars +evaporation of traffic jams
• New modes of access and
distribution of resources
CHALLENGES for FUTURECITIES
•More sustainable models• Address energy security
•Smart grids•New model for mobility•There is no sustainability for futurewithout a new vision for thedevelopment of more intelligentcities
•Sustainability is a multidimensionalconcept and needs to question theexcess of the constant growthlogic and fight the waste ofresources
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Ordem dos Engenheiros
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
GROWING ENERGY CONSUMPTION and URBANISATION:
HOW TO RUN CITIES, DELIVER SOLUTIONS
and MINIMIZE POLLUTION?
Source: The National, 9 November 2014
DATA SERVICES
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THE MULTIPLEXEDMETROPOLIS
• Big data
• Processing• Conversion into knowledge
• Ubiquos data services
DATA SERVICES
• Can change cities inXXI century as much aselectricity did in lastcentury
GREATER AMOUNTOF EASILY
AVAILABLE DATA
• Can change urban life
DANGERS ON FUTURECITIES
• Electronic panopticians(everybody is watched)
• Hackers / cyber attacks
• Labirinthic software• Further ways to exclude the
poor
• Serendipity at risk
CITIES XXI CENTURY
• Wealth• Novelty• Human Interfaces• Data
ERA OF MASS
URBANIZATION
• Major opportunities
• Major threats/risks
• Cyberterrorism
TRANSPORT SECTOR
• Major changes
• Automation
• Self-driving cars
• IT protection
ADDRESS FINANCIAL andREGULATORY RISKS
•Carbon price uncertainty
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ENERGY
COMPANIESin theFUTURE
p y•Increasing legislation and standards onemissions
•Consumer pressure for CO2 emissionsreduction
•Government policies on energy pricing
•Impact of pricing fluctuations on investment
decisions• Renewal energy policy uncertainty
REPUTATIONAL RISKS
•Environment pollution and liabilities
•Delivery of services compromised by energydisruptions
•Increasing control on emissions performancestandards
•Cost and stability of services
TECHNOLOGICAL RISKS
•Uncertain political commitmentto technological incentives
•Policy change undermining theviability of investment•New technology revolution maychange all aspects of energyservices from sources tostorage
•Impact on user-technologies(light/vehicles/electric motors)
•Impact on investment structure
OPERATIONALand
SUPPLY CHAIN RISKS
•Future demand uncertainties•Fuel and electricity supply
disruptions
•Infrastructure failure in changingclimatic conditions
•Transition to cleaner technologiesmaking infrastructure obsolete
•Cyber threats to smart grids
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