aeyp_ economy, crisis and youth
DESCRIPTION
Presentation @ African - Europe youth platform seminar on youth (un)employment: by Ivo Costa SantosTRANSCRIPT
Conselho Nacional de Juventude-PortugalIvo Costa Santos - Novembro 2012
ECONOMY, CRISES AND YOUTHHOW DID WE GET HERE, AND HOW WE WILL COME OUT OF HERE
Preview
Crises of Funding & liquidity
Democratic crises, youth participation
and Polítics&policiesSocial Crise
Economy
Society
Youth employment What way? opportunities
ICS| 2
Who did we get here?
ICS| 3
Funding and Liquidity Crisis Public Debt of European Countries
Sovereign Debt crisis Credit Crisis Crisis of Credibility
Fonte: Financial Times [Jan’2011]
Grécia 130Itália 118Irelanda
94Portugal
83
Bélgica 100França 84Alemanha
75Austria 70Espanha
63
ICS| 4
Funding and Liquidity Crisis Public Debt as% of GDP
Fonte: FMI [World Economic Outlook, Set’2011]
Grécia 165,5Itália 121,0Irelanda
109,2Portugal
101,9
Bélgica 94,5França 86,8Alemanha
82,6Austria 72,3Espanha
67,4
Sovereign Debt crisis Credit Crisis Crisis of Credibility
ICS| 5
Funding and Liquidity Crisis
Public Debt, Interest and Growth
Fonte: OCDE
Sovereign Debt crisis Credit Crisis Crisis of Credibility
ICS| 6
Funding and Liquidity Crisis Interest Rate Public Debt to 10 years
Fonte: Datastream – Thomson Reuters [Jan’2012]
Sovereign Debt crisis Credit Crisis Crisis of Credibility
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Funding and Liquidity Crisis Exhibition of Investment Banks
Fonte: Financial Times [Nov’2011]
Sovereign Debt crisis Credit Crisis Crisis of Credibility
ICS| 8
Funding and Liquidity Crisis
Sovereign Debt crisis Credit Crisis Crisis of Credibility
Fonte: Banco Mundial [timeseries 1960-2010]
Domestic credit provided by the banking
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Funding and Liquidity Crisis
Sovereign Debt crisis Credit Crisis Crisis of Credibility
Fonte: Datastream e Banco Central Europeu
Ratio of Disposable Income Housing Credit
ICS| 10
Funding and Liquidity Crisis
Sovereign Debt crisis Credit Crisis Crisis of Credibility
Fonte: The Economist, 26Nov2011
A proof of distrust in the European Economy is embodied in the aversion of foreign investment
Net International Investment Position
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Who will pay for all of this?
Fonte: The Economist, 26Nov2011
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He will…
Fonte: The Economist, 26Nov2011
ICS| 13
Preview
Crises of Funding & liquidity
Democratic crises, youth
participation and Polítics&policies
Social Crise
Economy
Society
ICS| 14
Crisis and Democratic Politics?'Takeover of Markets' and 'People's Voice'
‘Takeoverof the markets’
'People's Voice'
Papandreu
Papademos
Berlusconi
Monti
ESCOLHAS DO
MERCADO
Sócrates
Passos Coelho
Zapatero
Rajoy
ICS| 15
Crisis and Democratic Politics?What age does People's Voice have?
In: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/pdf/eurobarometre/28_07/FR_EN.pdf
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Guess with which generation is the political
commitment ?
Fonte: The Economist, 26Nov2011
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Which solutions have the European states have found to all ?
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Interest rate on the Term lengthen OT IMF support 2010-2013 Portugal
Fonte: OCDE
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The demanding way ... Download the Public Debt as% of GDP (long-term)
Fonte: FMI Country Report 2011
To solve the economic problem, is urgent lower the debt (and collaterally reduce domestic demand by cutting spending and rising taxes).
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And how about youth?
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Crisis and Democratic Politics?'Takeover of Markets' and 'People's Voice'
… And if Christine Lagarde was a young unemployed ?
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Crisis and Democratic Politics?'Takeover of Markets' and 'People's Voice'
… or Durao Barroso was a young unemployed ?
ICS| 23
Preview
Crises of Funding & liquidity
Democratic crises, youth
participation and Polítics&policies
Social Crise
Economy
Society
ICS| 24
Youth Employment Europe ICS| 25
Youth Emancipation ICS| 26
Costs with social support ICS| 27
Costs with social support ICS| 28
Population at risk of poverty by age group (%) in Europe ICS| 29
How much cost this situation to European countries ? ICS| 30
Social exclusions cost us according to some
estimates over 100billion euros every year.
And this number is just for the EU Member States. It is an extremely big problem for our generation and negative circular effects of the problem such as mental health problems are going to cost us dearly.
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So…
Economy
Society
What solutions What way? Opportunities
ICS| 32
Then, which can be the way?
Credit Crisis
Crisis of Credibility
Crisis and Democratic Politics
Social crisis
GENERATIONAL
CRISIS
The public debt must be generationally sustainable
Fiscal austerity may be a necessary but not sufficient element
There are limits to austerity
These limits are the breakeven point for growth
Growth is the key to sustainability
International competitiveness is a growth factor?
The Euro is part of the solution and not the problem
the ECB has limited action because this crisis should not directly fund the states without limit
The European solidarity is the solution Eurobonds?!
What cooperation between euro-africa can we improve?
ICS| 33
What solutions that we can adopt?
Contrato de
Confiança [Dual]
Estágios Profission
ais
PEJENEFINICIA+ INOV
Erasmus Export
INOV Youth Work
Move @ Work
Mechanisms for social share of risk array
ICS| 34
Then, which can be the way?
1. Commitments of States
2. Commitments of Governments
3. Commitment of youth organizations
4. Commitment of ourselves
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Then, which can be the way?
1st . It will be a clear need to identify a strategy for economic growth and development that will enable the economy to find areas of investment leading to a renewal of the national productive apparatus.
2nd . It is necessary to redefine an array of cooperation between civil society - the state - and financial/private agents, demanding for social responsibility in crisis time, to reform financing mechanisms, requiring a system restore confidence and credibility finance and business, as citizens did when it was necessary to use public funds on bank recapitalization.
3rd . The youth employment is only one dimension, often instrumental in the lives of young people. The real need for this, relates to the possibility of developing a sustainable living project, with future prospects. For this it is necessary to identify mechanisms of social sharing of risk, based on concepts of social innovation to rethink social security devices, illness protection, promotion of family, individual achievement and the pursuit of happiness for every young person.
Commitments of States
ICS| 36
Then, which can be the way?
4th. Setting a ceiling for pensions, following such a measure with a restructuring of the social security system, linking it to pension funds;
5th. Need to identify areas of national investment, with exclusive lines of support to young - redefining the concept of strategic industry nationally, aimed at job creation;
6th. Restructuring the network of higher education, bringing it closer to the framework of strategic national and inter-regional development to adopt
7th. Debate a new model of employment contracts for young people, replacing the current reality of precariousness , with drastic reduction of social contributions made.
Commitments of states
ICS| 37
Then, which can be the way?
a) Develop mechanisms for positive discrimination to tax companies that encourage youth employment and investing in research and development
b) creation of incentive programs for youth employment through paid internships
c) Creating incentives ace SMEs, particularly related to primary and secondary sectors, to reduce production costs;
d) Increase surveillance job insecurity and labor right’ s abuse
e) Promote the evaluation and monitoring of the implementation of employment promotion programs in the framework of dissemination, monitoring and information
f) Creation of a credit line for SMEs and Micro-enterprises whose capital is held mostly by young until the age of thirty.
g) Establishing mechanisms for risk capital for SMEs and Micro-enterprises whose capital is held mostly by young until the age of thirty.
h) Creation of "Valley Entrepreneur", with support for up to thirty thousand euros, with 75% of capital drown lost.
Commitments of Governments
ICS| 38
Then, which can be the way?
The priorities of young people have changed dramatically in this time of global crisis that threw the world economy into the recession.
The youth is suffer most from all this, are who see their social rights being stomped on, and his future mortgaged, rejected their aspirations and see their jobs destroyed.
The priorities of life of young people are the future, and how to build a new one according to their dreams in a continuous improvement of their living conditions.
For all of this, is fundamental redefine the priorities of youth.
These priorities are the living conditions of young people and these tend to be discussed between the governments and the social partners.
Social partners, however, represent only those who are part of a formal economy, already existing and safeguard the rights acquired and no rights of the consecration of the new generations.
Young people should participate in dialogues as well complain of social partners, governments, unions and employers in a collective response to the maintenance of social cohesion and progress and economic and social development.
Commitment of youth organizations
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Then, which can be the way?
Dream and Believe!
Commitment of ourselves
ICS| 40
